Saturday 12/26/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 06:24 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

December 26, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, the Meadowlands has a 15-race post-holiday card with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-My Pal Joe (8-1)-Qualifier appears okay on 12/12 and hasn't raced since 11/3 but does have 1 win in 3 Big M starts against similar. Joe has a 150.4 mark here and likes to race near the top of the stack. Should offer a price, if fires hot off the bench.
6-Put To Right (3-1)-Alagna trainee had an impressive win from the 10-hole on 12/5 and is back in at the same class. Probably beats this crew if races back to last effort but is only 4-27 lifetime and 1-5 at the Big M, so will include others.
7-Always And Again (7/2)-Drops in 3rd local start after facing tougher in last 2 quick miles. This colt was facing stakes company at HoP and fits well with crew. Likes to come off cover and pace should be solid, so could fly by late.

Race 7

1-Fizzing N (9/2)-Has been off since 11/7 and finished 2nd in a qualifier on 12/11 at Fhld in a sluggish 155.4 mile. Dunn steers and drops to a spot to shine. Has hit the board twice in 2 Big M starts with 1 picture. Should be a player if tight enough.
5-Blood Line (3-1)-This is my top choice, hasn't raced since 10/24 but had a nice qualifier here on 12/12. The Johnson barn is batting 25% in the last 30 days and 6-year-old has hit the board in 8 of 17 here with 3 wins. Should relish the company.

Race 8

1-Milady Denver A (10-1)-Ten-year-old is somewhat camera shy and this post may not help. But regular pilot, Leon Bailey does hit the board at a high percentage. Trusting the trip will be good, could be put in play and surprise at a solid price.
5-Stellenbosch (7/2)-Steps up after getting a close-up seat in last and could follow the same script tonight. Loses Zeron and Buter takes a spin. Has won 2 of 7 at the Big M and might make it 3 of 8 if new pilot provides a good steer.
6-Callmequeenbee A (3-1)-This is another HoP invader from the Cullipher barn. The results haven't been great so far for this type. But this mare held her own versus Open company and will look for a better try in 2nd East Rutherford start.
9-Pammy Jo (5-1)-Yonkers invader was cashing checks versus better, should offer a fair price and now Dunn will take a spin. Has enough gate speed to get a good seat and should be in the mix for 1st Big M victory in 5 attempts.

Race 9

2-Joey (3-1)-Comes off a sharp win against a softer group on 12/11 and then was scratched last week. David Miller does stick, post draw should help, and guessing will go off at higher price than the program odds.
4-Deltasun A (7/2)-Will toss last after a tough trip against a better crew. Previous start was a win after coming home in 56.1 off cover. This is 1st time Bartlett and could be posing if he provides a smooth journey in 4th start at the Big M.
7-Hill Of A Horse (8-1)-Did beat the NW14KL5 here on 9/11 with Allard in the bike. The same pilot will be back steering this Yonkers invader who was facing Open company. Looking for a quick pace and 5-year-old could stalk and roll by down the lane.

0.50 Early Pick 4

2,6,7/1,5/1,5,6,9/2,4,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 06:25 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 12/26/20

December 26, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Workout Report, National Day Makers, and Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Full-Card Santa Anita Workout Analysis

National Day Makers

RACE 1: Post: 11:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Sassyserb; 8-Rocking Redhead; 10-Hermaphrodite; 11-Shanghai Truffles

Forecast: A true grass grab bag ushers in the new season with several possibilities to consider in this nine furlong first-level allowance affair for fillies and mares over nine furlongs on grass. The R. Baltas-trained Rocking Redhead graduated in good style last month at Del Mar while stretching out for the first time and surely will try similar front-running tactics in an attempt to extend her range another furlong. The daughter of Hard Spun set legit fractions and kept on going to earn a strong number, so with another forward move she may be capable of winning right back at 6-1 on the morning line. Sassyserb is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her two-hole post position, has a prior win over the course and may make her presence felt from the top of the lane to the wire. She’s the “other” Baltas in the field but at 8-1 on the morning line deserves good consideration. Hermaphrodite, listed stakes-placed in several outings in France in 2019, made her U. S. debut off a long layoff last month at Del Mar and was a bit underwhelming when winding up a non-threatening fifth despite having a very hot pace that should have complemented her deep-closing style. Assuming she needed the race, the J. Sadler-trained mare can improve today, and with the switch to J. Rosario she should be included in rolling exotic play. Shanghai Truffles can be tossed in somewhere as well, though her extreme outside draw does her no favors. Twice successful over the Santa Anita lawn, she’s a grinding type that will appreciate this stretch out to a mile and one-eighth and has numbers that are solid for this level.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:32 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Affable; 6-Wipe the Slate

Forecast: Affable displayed considerable promise in his debut last month at Del Mar when finishing an excellent second to Savile Row while earning a speed figure nine points better than par for this level, so the son of Flatter – purchased for $600,000 at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale last spring – has a chance to graduate today and then go on to bigger and better things. Two nice workouts over the Santa Anita main track should have him primed and ready, and with F. Prat staying aboard the M. Glatt-trained juvenile is the logical morning line favorite at 8/5. Also worth consideration in rolling exotic play is the D. O’Neill-trained Wipe the Slate, a second-timer who had the misfortune of hooking B. Baffert’s latest monster Life Is Good last month at Del Mar and wound up a distant second, though still earning a nice number despite being beaten 10 lengths. The son of Nyquist adds blinkers today and shows a good recent gate work that indicates a forward move is likely.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:04 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Defense Wins; 2-Hapi Hapi; 4-Alvaaro

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 main track miler while giving Defense Wins a slight edge on top. The 3-year-old was simply pitched too high when unplaced without mishap in a difficult entry-level allowance turf miler at Del Mar last month but he’s realistically spotted today and should snap back to good form with the class drop and the return to dirt. The son of Flatter sports a steady, healthy series of workouts in recent weeks over the local main track, and from his inside post the D. O’Neill-trained gelding should enjoy a good trip and have every chance. Hapi Hapi has produced rising speed figures and consistent form since being claimed by P. Eurton last summer at Del Mar, and with a prior win over the Santa Anita dirt track the son of Clubhouse Ride must be considered a major player. He’s always been a one-paced grinding type and needs to be as close to the early leaders throughout to be most effective. Alvaaro, a $16,000 R. Hanson claim, was a compromised by a slow start yet still rallied to finish a willing third in the same race Hapi Hapi exits. With a better break today, the son of Old Fashioned should be prominent throughout, and if he can manage to shake loose early to be the controlling speed, all the better.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:36 PT Grade: A-
Use: 1-Whisper Not; 5-Some Like Strait

Forecast: Whisper Not showed plenty of promise in his U.S. debut when second to the tough, older veteran Shadow Sphinx in a fast, highly-rated first level allowance race at Del Mar last month, one that charts extremely well in this Grade-3 turf miler restricted to 3-year-olds. Drawn perfectly inside, training sharply at San Luis Rey Downs in the interim, and retaining J. Rosario, the English-bred colt is very likely to produce a significant forward move with that race behind him. Though the son of Poet’s Voice probably has enough early speed to be on the lead if that’s the chosen strategy, he also has the option of settling behind the leaders while saving ground and then kicking home when asked. At 5-1 on the morning line, the R. Baltas-trained colt offers exceptional value both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. The likely favorite and one to beat is Smooth Like Strait, the Twilight Derby-G2 winner over the local lawn two races back and a narrow runner-up in the Hollywood Derby-G1 in his most recent outing. Fast on numbers and thoroughly genuine and consistent, the Midnight Lute colt must be used on the ticket as well, though our main punch based on price will go to Whisper Not.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:06 PT Grade: C
Use: 5-Half Hoping; 8-Watchful Eye; 10-Great Curves; 11-Warren’s Memorable

Forecast: This fifth race is an inscrutable maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for state-bred 2-year-old fillies. Nothing would surprise, so use as many as you can afford to. Warren’s Memorable is comparatively slow on speed figures but at least she managed to finish second here during the fall meeting despite stumbling at the start and did so in such a manner to suggest she’ll enjoy today’s extra half furlong. Great Curves sports the always-dangerous maiden-to-maiden claiming angle and earned a number in her debut two runs back when rallying to be a distant fourth that charts quite well with this modest group. After being used on the pace and fading last time out, patient tactics likely will be employed today. Half Hoping, a first-timer from the M. Puype barn, has displayed a bit of ability in the morning and is a contender by default, while Watchful Eye finished third beaten less than a length at Golden Gate Fields last month while on or near the pace and could improve enough today to be competitive at 8-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Tripoli; 8-Preaching Trainer; 12-Anaconda

Forecast: We like the route-to-sprint angle that Tripoli brings to this extended turf sprint for first-level allowance older horses and the fact that he’s already won going short over the local lawn makes him the one to beat. His inside draw guarantees a ground-saving trip, so from a stalking position and with room to rally into the lane the J. Sadler-trained son of Kitten’s Joy can justify a strong play at 6-1 on the morning line. However, in a highly contentious affair, a spread strategy in the rolling exotics, at least for big ticket players, must be considered. Although Anaconda will have to overcome an extreme outside draw, the R. Mandella-trained colt seems sure to return to top form after setting the pace and weakening under pressure when fourth in a very fast, highly-rated middle distance race at Del Mar last month. A visually pleasing winner in his debut over the local lawn in early November, the son of Pioneerof the Nile has trained sharply in recent weeks and projects to draft into a second flight stalking position outside and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Preaching Trainer deserve some consideration as well, at least as saver. The C. Gaines-trained gelding had his momentum stymied when running into a roadblock in a similar event at Del Mar last month and wound up fifth, beaten two lengths, but with some pace to chase and good racing luck today he should be something of a late threat.
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RACE 7: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Sharp Samurai; 8-Mucho Gusto

Forecast: Mucho Gusto is making his first start since finishing fourth in Saudi Arabia last spring and this race obviously isn’t the end all as the big money ($20 million) once again in the Saudi Cup down the road. The work tab looks good, especially his most recent bullet drill (6f, 1:12.4h) just six days ago, and the B. Baffert-trained colt has a history of winning off an extended layoff so if even if he’s not 100% cranked up the son of Mucho Macho Man certainly can still win. Sharp Samurai, always considered a turf specialist, looks to have found a home on dirt, having finished second in the Pacific Classic-G1 at Del Mar (behind Maximum Security) and then most recently winding up a highly-respectable third in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile-G1. The veteran gelding has appeared especially sharp in recent works and looks clearly the best of the others with a legitimate chance to win should ‘Gusto come up a tad short. We’ll have tickets including both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 2:43 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Secret Keeper; 5-Finite; 8-Motivated Seller

Forecast: This year’s edition of the La Brea S.-G1 came up deep and strong with a number of legitimate contenders to consider. We’ve got it down to three main players, with Motivated Seller offering good value at 8-1 on the morning line. The lightly-raced daughter of Into Mischief won her first two career outings by herself and then lost little when dropping a photo to Merneith in the listed Fort Springs S. at Keeneland on Breeders’ Cup day. Today’s extended sprint distance should be perfect for her stalking style, and with another forward move from a comfortable outside draw the C. Brown-trained filly has a legit chance to pull off an upset. Finite is the logical top pick and one to beat. First or second in nine of 11 career starts, including an authoritative score in the Chilukki S.-G3 at Churchill Downs, the S. Asmussen-trained filly likes to settle, stalk and pounce, and as such owns the perfect style for this seven furlong affair. She’s fast on numbers and knows where the wire is. Secret Keeper can be included as well. She easily handled Merneith when they met at Del Mar last summer and then finished an excellent runner-up to subsequent Zenyatta S.-G2 winner Harvest Moon (five clear of the rest) in the Torrey Pine S.-G3. The daughter of Into Mischief was eliminated at the start and unplaced in the Raven Run S.-G2 at Keeneland in her most recent outing in a race that can be ignored.
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RACE 9: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Red Lark; 8-Duopoly; 9-Sharing

Forecast: With just a cursory glance of the pp’s in this year’s edition of American Oaks-G1 it’s readily apparent that the field consists of several stalkers and deep closers but just one committed front-runner, Duopoly. And given her expected trip as the controlling speed, the daughter of Animal Kingdom will have every chance to wire the field under the assumption that her rapidly improving pattern will continue following her recent gate-to-wire score in the Winter Memories S. at Aqueduct last month. On pure numbers she’s a strong contender and recent works at Palm Meadows in Florida by the C. Brown-trained filly indicates she’s ready to take on this more difficult assignment. F. Prat picks up the mount and knows what needs to be done. Sharing is the likely choice and one to beat. Winner over the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last year over the Santa Anita grass course, the daughter of Speightstown seems likely to settle into a stalking position outside and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Whether or not the G. Motion-trained filly truly wants 10 furlongs remains to be seen but given her consistently outstanding resume she’s a “must use” and the one to fear most. Red Lark looks like the most dangerous of the closers, and a faster-than-normal early pace (possible if Going to Vegas is sent from the bell to engage Duopoly) surely would enhance her chances. The winner of the Del Mar Oaks-G2 two runs back and a better-than-looked fourth (beaten less than two lengths) in the QEII-G1 at Keeneland in October, the Irish-bred filly will enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail and then hopefully will find room to accelerate when the pressure is turned on.
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RACE 10: Post: 3:51 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Nashville; 4-Charlatan; 6-Independence Hall

Forecast: We’ll pass this race for wagering purposes using the three main contenders in our rolling exotics and instead simply enjoy good sport. This year’s edition of the Malibu S.-G1 could produce an Eclipse Award winner in the Sprint category, especially if the 6/5 morning line favorite, unbeaten Nashville, wires the field, just as he’s done in each of his three previous outings. Most recently the son of Speightstown won the listed Perryville S. on Breeders’ Cup Day, running considerably faster at every pole than the BC Sprint-G1 later in the day, and there are those who believe that if he’d been given the chance to run in that race the S. Asmussen-trained colt would have taken control and never looked back. Today he’ll have to negotiate an extra furlong while fighting off stalkers Charlatan and Independence Hall, two colts who also are unbeaten around one turn and extremely fast on speed figures. Charlatan winner of the nine furlong Arkansas Derby-G1 in dominating fashion when last seen in early May, was stopped on due to an ankle injury, but we know he can fire fresh and we know he loves the Santa Anita main track. His works are good, not breathtaking, but trainer B. Baffert has noted that his colt ran better than he worked last winter and spring and expects he’ll do the same in his first race back. As for Independence Hall, he fell short of his Derby dreams when it became apparent that the son of Constitution didn’t want to run long, and his comeback win against a salty group of tough stakes-quality older sprinters last month at Del Mar produced a blueprint on how he can upset the two favorites by capitalizing on a second flight trip from a cozy outside post. Clearly, Independence Hall will be the best price of the three so we’ll put him on top but include all three in our rolling exotics and enjoy one of the most intriguing editions of the traditional opening day feature in many years.
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RACE 11: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Miss Extra; 9-Warren’s Showtime; 10-Annangel

Forecast: The nightcap is the Lady of Shamrock S., a listed affair over a mile on grass for 3-year-old fillies, a consolation event for those who were not quite accomplished enough to be invited to the American Oaks-G1 earlier on the program. It’s an excellent race in its own right and offers a bit of a price chance in Annangel, a very impressive winner in her U.S. debut at Del Mar in late October when leaving her moderate English form behind. In that first-level allowance event the R. Baltas-trained filly broke slowly from the rail, rushed up to establish the pace in hand and then held way gamely while proving uncatchable after coming home in 23 seconds flat. if she’s able to secure a similar trip today from her extreme outside post the daughter of Morpheus may take this field a very long way, so at 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth a gamble. Warren’s Showtime, a winner of four races from five career starts over the Santa Anita turf course, was below her best form when second in sprinting on dirt in the Betty Grable S. at Del Mar but today’s conditions – a mile on grass – is what she prefers so we’re expecting the daughter of Clubhouse Ride to step forward in a big way. She’ll likely settle in mid-pack and then turn it on when it matters. Miss Extra didn’t fire in her U.S. debut, the Del Mar Oaks-G1 in which she finished a non-threatening ninth of 10. but today adds Lasix and tackles easier, so the French-bred filly, a Group stakes winner overseas earlier this year, certainly should be given a second chance. Top grass rider U. Rispoli got to know her last time, stays aboard, and will have covered up and ready to quicken when the time is right.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 06:26 AM

Saturday, December 26: Laurel Park Christmastide Stakes Day Picks

December 23, 2020 | By Frank Carulli
Laurel Park's Winter Carnival of racing is officially scheduled for mid-February, but the track will offer a merry-go-round of stakes action this Saturday, Dec. 26. The nine-race card scheduled to begin at 12:25 EST features seven, $100,000 races -- spanning 6F to 1-1/8 miles -- and the $150,000 Grade III Allaire DuPont. Bettors can play daily doubles, 50-cent rolling Pick 3s and $1 Super Hi-5s throughout the day. Here's a few suggested plays:

BEST BET (RACE 5 @ 2:23PM ET, #1 DONTLETSWEETFOOLYA)

Something has to give in the 6F Willa On The Move Stakes as speedballs Dontletsweetfoolya and Malibu Mischief have combined for 10 consecutive wire-to-wire victories by a combined 52 lengths. DONTLETSWEETFOOLYA gets the nod, having turned the winning corner since adding blinkers. Keith Feustle, one of the track's astute chart-callers, noticed the 3-year-old filly wore different blinkers after her June 19 start when the winning streak began. If the speed falls apart, CLUB CAR is the likely beneficiary. She projects a perfect stalking trip from the outside -- a preferred path for many sprinters at the track last week -- for a barn that has a $5.90 ROI the last three years with the synthetic-to-dirt angle.

SPOT PLAY (RACE 6 @ 2:53PM ET, #3 TACO SUPREAM)

Trainer Damon Dilodovico sends out hard-hitting LAKI (10-29, $703k) in the $100,000 Dave's Friend Stakes, but don't sleep on his other entrant, TACO SUPREAM, who rallied against a strong rail bias to finish second two starts back, won his latest try and picks up top jockey Trevor McCarthy. Both runners will have SHARE THE RIDE to beat after he carried 133 pounds to victory in the Grade III Fall Highweight Handicap at Aqueduct last out and posted three triple-digit Beyers in four starts prior.

FEATURE RACE PICK - G3 ALLAIRE DUPONT STAKES (RACE 8 @ 3:53PM ET, #4 ERES TU)

ERES TU relaxed well in her second start off a 1-1/2-year layoff, took command with ease and won her first stakes race in a manner that suggests she can repeat in the $150,000, Grade 3 Allaire DuPont at 1-1/8 miles. Trainer Arnaud Delacour excels with runners coming off their top speed figure on dirt. Also of note: she defeated Lucky Stride, who finished ahead of ANOTHER BROAD (7-2 in today's race) in the G-III Shuvee Stakes back in the fall at Saratoga.

LONGSHOT STABS (RACES 3 & 7)

GUNS BLAZIN - 15/1 - (#1, race 3) draws the rail, appears to want longer and is out of the graded-stakes caliber dam House of Fortune ($989k). AIR TOKEN - 10/1 - (#3, race 7) doesn't figure to win, but he is a must use on gimmick wager tickets as trainer Jose Corrales is 8-27 the last 30 days with a 2.89 ROI. Both runners are double-digit odds on the morning line.

$100 BANKROLL BETS

RACE 2 (PICK 3): 3, 5 // 1, 2, 8 // ALL
COST: $24.00 for $0.50 base

RACE 5: $40 WIN #1 DONTLETSWEETFOOLYA // $15 EXACTA 1-9 // $5 EXACTA 1 - 3
COST: $60.00

RACE 7: $16 EXACTA 4-3
COST: $16.00

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 06:27 AM

Race of the Week: San Antonio Stakes at Santa Anita

December 23, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 2 $200,000 SAN ANTONIO STAKES AT SANTA ANITA
Saturday, December 26, 2020

The Lead:
Opening day Saturday at Santa Anita boasts 6 stakes races, 5 of them graded, including an epic showdown between 3-year-old sprinters Nashville and Charlatan in the Grade 1 Malibu. An all-stakes late pick five begins in Race 7 with the Grade 2 San Antonio, a major stakes steppingstone toward the Pegasus World Cup in January and the Santa Anita Handicap in March.

Field Depth:
MUCHO GUSTO and COMBATANT have Grade 1 victories in signature races like the Pegasus World Cup and Santa Anita Handicap, respectively. MIDCOURT and SHARP SAMURAI both are Grade 2 winners and Grade 1-placed. EXTRA HOPE is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. MUCHO GUSTO, SHARP SAMURAI and MIDCOURT have consistently held the strongest company lines in a high-class lineup.

Pace:
Rail-drawn TAKE THE ONE O ONE has a send-mentality. MUCHO GUSTO likely will be sharper early off a February layoff, and from the outside post, will be sent into a first-over press. Several want to sit in that third/fourth slot, including EXTRA HOPE, COMBATANT, MIDCOURT et al. The pace looks honest, but at 1-1/16 miles, don't expect it to melt down to deep closers.

Our Eyes:
MUCHO GUSTO can become Bob Baffert's seventh San Antonio winner and first since Hoppertunity went back-to-back in 2016 and 2017. His abbreviated 4-year-old season wasn't without a fat purse ledger. His Pegasus World Cup victory and fourth-place run in the Saudi Cup netted his connections $3.1 million. He won the Lewis, Barrera and Affirmed over the Santa Anita dirt as a 3-year-old in 2019. The nearly 10-month layoff into the San Antonio is of some obvious note, but he's worked right on cue for nearly 3 months for the comeback. The intermediate distance at 1-1/16 miles makes for a proper re-launch. Expect him to be on his game in this prep for a Pegasus World Cup defense on January 23.

Native Diver Stakes 1-2-3 finishers EXTRA HOPE, MIDCOURT and COMBATANT all re-match from their November 21 tussle at Del Mar. EXTRA HOPE wired that day with an aggressive ride from Juan Hernandez, taking advantage of a wild pace and keeping MIDCOURT at bay late. COMBATANT lost margin in the stretch for the seventh straight race while not making a dent from third. MIDCOURT was third in this race a year ago against a softer bunch. Of this trio, EXTRA HOPE appears to be doing best right now.

SHARP SAMURAI has been rock-solid from miles on dirt and turf to a classic mile and one-quarter on dirt. While there was no catching Knicks Go in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile last out, arguably SHARP SAMURAI was second-best when missing the place dough by a nose following a troubled trip. The horse who edged him, Jesus' Team, already has returned to win the Claiming Crown Jewel. SHARP SAMURI has 20 in a row in the superfecta, as trustworthy an animal as you'll find in just about any situation.

IDOL will be the X-factor after back-to-back wins at Churchill Downs. He comes west for trainer Richard Baltas for the first time and makes his stakes debut. He's trained like a good horse at Del Mar and Santa Anita since his November arrival. The Curlin colt has been fast enough to win sprinting as well as routing 1-3/16 miles. The distance should fit in his crosshairs nicely. His long stride looks outstanding on video at XBTV in the morning.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: MUCHO GUSTO is 12-for-12 in the superfecta lifetime and has won all 3 starts at Santa Anita.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: TAKE THE ONE O ONE will reduce all the variables will rail speed. He held for the bottom of the superfecta in the Awesome Again Stakes at 59-1 against a slightly tougher cast. If a couple chasers lose steam and a couple of closers don't fire, you can see this one hanging on for a share.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $40 exacta MUCHO GUSTO over IDOL ($40). $60 daily double MUCHO GUSTO to sharp-training stablemate MERNEITH in Race 8.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 07:18 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #1

#1 Pseudonym	Has some room to bounce back as she moves over to the turf again, where she started her career with a trio of improving efforts before some dull tries on the synthetic footing. She's quick enough to find a good spot tracking the pace.
#7 I Hear You	Seems like the one to beat as she comes out of some pretty tough spots in Kentucky, but I wouldn't want too short a price in a race that might be more competitive than the 8/5 ML here would indicate.
#6 Ginny B	Has turned in a couple of decent turf efforts that would stack up well here, but she'll need to bring her very best on the rise. Gimmick price player?
Race Summary	Pseudonym might be the right one to beat the ML chalk here, as she owns some solid back turf form and might get a decent go of things from off the splits.

Fair Grounds - Race #9

#5 Pixelate	Has been in with some better groups than he's going to find here, and he was too far back last out in the Bryan Station while forward players dominated the race.
#10 Telephone Talker	Can't really argue much with the overall form, and he has now turned in two really nice starts with winners after finally breaking through the maiden ranks.
#2 Bodecream	Reliable type should land a great spying trip, and like the top choice he has a bit of class to him that some others in here lack.
Race Summary	Pixelate has knocked heads with some tough 3yo turfers this year, and he's better now than he was when beaten by Bodecream earlier this year.

Fair Grounds - Race #10

#5 Caramel Latte	Graduated nicely in the first local run, and her tactical pace will have her in the mix again on the hike to try winners for the first time.
#6 Mandoline Star	She's probably capable of something a bit better this time around with that last one under her belt, and another good tracking trip should be in store today.
#9 Dance Away	Blinkers on for this one after a good, rallying finish with similar last time out, and her dirt form has proven to be pretty reliable.
Race Summary	Caramel Latte should be able to get a good run of things from near the top, and a repeat of her last would make her a handful with these.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 07:19 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #10

#7 BRACKEN STORM A	Never better, second to tiger in latest.
#1 DE LOS CIELOS DEO	Exits preferred company, draws rail, nearing $500k.
#9 HARAMBE DEO	Fits condition well, early position the key from post 9.
Race Summary	Bracken Storm A, first or second in five consecutive starts since November, was no match for a 1:48.4 winner but could reward his loyal backers at a better price in this spot.

Dayton Raceway - Race #1

#2 CASS DELIGHT ROCK	Taken to upset off improved try.
#5 WHISKEY FRISKIE	Drops, gets Miller, projects ideal trip.
#3 SNOWBALL'S ROMEO	Good first gear but 1-31 this year.
Race Summary	Cass Delight Rock held okay through :56 middle half before tiring in an improved effort. He's worth a price shot as he takes aim at a $50k season.

Cal-Expo - Race #1

#3 SIN MACHQUEEN	Got away easy on lead, accelerated when needed in stretch.
#6 CRUSIN FOR YOU	Seven wins this year, gets class relief, offers some value, stands 316-6-7 this year.
#2 TIMETOPLAYTHEGAME	Troubled favorite last week, knows how to win.
Race Summary	Sin Machqueen controlled the pace and pulled away from the second favorite through a :27.3 final quarter to repeat. Can't go beyond her in this spot, so play 3-2 and 3-6 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 07:20 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #7

#3 Extra Hope	Has rounded into his best form for Richard Mandella and comes in off a gate-to-wire score in the G3 Native Diver at Del Mar; is 3 of 5 over this strip.
#8 Mucho Gusto	Has been off since February, when he was fourth in the Saudi Cup, and a month earlier he won the Pegasus World Cup Invitational. Never runs a bad one, and the time off he had gives others a chance here.
#5 Combatant	Won the G1 Santa Anita Handicap and was third in the Native Diver; doesn't win many but is having a great season and can get a piece of it.
Race Summary	Extra Hope has the most speed, can get comfortable on the front end and could have the answer when challenged in the stretch. He's never been better.

Santa Anita - Race #8

#5 Finite	Is currently doing some of her best running and comes off a sharp score at Churchill; turns back from a mile to seven furlongs and can close with strong energy.
#2 Merneith	Goes for her third straight win has turned into a top-flight sprinters among distaffers; overcame a bad trip at Keeneland last time and should be strong at seven furlongs.
#8 Motivated Seller	Was in the mix from the start and just missed vs. Merneith at Keeneland; is within a neck of being three for three in her career.
Race Summary	Finite has early speed to stay within range of any filly and has developed a good closing move as well; her best gets her the victory.

Santa Anita - Race #10

#3 Nashville	Would be a surprise to no one if he won today but the competition gets better with each of his starts. He won the Perryville on the Breeders' Cup undercard at Keeneland but probably would've won the Breeders' Cup Sprint had he been pointed to that race instead He'd only had two starts but the route he took was probably the choice most trainers would've taken. He looked like he could be the fastest horse in the world last time and we get to see what he does vs. Grade 1 rivals.
#4 Charlatan	Was disqualified after an easy win in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby; has been clearly in front at the wire of all three races, he's at his home track and will come up big again.
#1 Collusion Illusion	Didn't really run a jump in the BC Sprint and can probably get back to good form. He won the Laz Barrera and Bing Crosby back to back, and those usually come up tough.
Race Summary	Nashville has dominated his competition and faces what should be his toughest test to date. The strong feeling here is that he'll remain unbeaten.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 08:58 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (200029) Crystal Palace at (200030) Aston Villa
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: December 26, 2020 10AM EST
Play: Aston Villa -109
PLAY: ASTON VILLA ML -109

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 08:58 AM

The Prez

Event: (457) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (458) Detroit Lions
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 26, 2020 1PM EST
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10.0 (+105)
The inconsistent Tampa Bay Buccaneers confront Week 16 against a consistent Detroit Lions troupe. The one constant of Tom Brady and his Bucmates is their slow starts, first-quarter laziness. Tom Terrific and the Tampa offense have been outscored an average of three points in the first stanza, 32 points in total through 16 games. For the better part of a decade, the Lions have been consistently bad throughout the regular season.
Since the National Football League split into eight divisions, 2002, the Lions have been easy-money to finish 3rd or 4th in the four-team division, the NFC North. In eighteen seasons, 2002-2019, Detroit has closed the regular season in 3rd or 4th place 14 times. The other four seasons found the Lions fishing 2nd.
Tampa has two regular-season games remaining in the 2020 campaign. They need only to win one of their remaining two games with Detroit this weekend followed by a Week 17 date with the Atlanta Falcons. The more talented Buccaneers have been consistent against the number in the last decade. Tampa is 0-6-1 ATS on Saturdays and the Bucs are a steady 1-8 ATS in their second or more consecutive away from home. And Detroit is 10-2 ATS in their head-to-head battles with the Buccaneers and overall the Lions are a very profitable 8-2 ATS on Saturdays.
As difficult as it is to ignore the Buccaneers' history with the Lions and know that who Tampa used to be is not who they are today. And I am playing Tampa -10 in this NFC Game of the Day.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 08:59 AM

Tony Mejia

Event: (777) Robert Morris at (778) IPFW
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: December 26, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Total Over 137.0 (-117)
Both Robert Morris and Purdue-Fort Wayne are debuting in the Horizon League, coming over from solid runs in the Northeast Conference and Summit League, respectively. The Colonials actually won the NEC in March but got their bubble burst due to COVID-19 but have a few key vets back. They've given up 85 points to Bowling Green and Marshall in consecutive games and should again run into a team that wants to shoot it and run whenever possible in a Mastadons team that is also playing only their fourth game. Both teams will want to debut with a win, so don't expect either Andrew Toole or Jon Coffman to quit on this one. We should see game extension deliver the high side here. Ride the over for this FREE winner.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 09:00 AM

Oskeim Sports

Event: (283) Liberty at (284) Coastal Carolina
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: December 26, 2020 7PM EST
Play: Liberty +7.0 (-110)
Liberty's lone loss was by one point to an 8-3 North Carolina State squad and the Flames finished the regular season with an 8-2 ATS record, including going a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog. Liberty defeated Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and possesses a defense that ranks higher in several key metrics. Head coach Hugh Freeze is 5-1 ATS in bowl games, including leading the Flames to a 23-16 upset win over Georgia Southern as five-point underdogs last year.
Freeze is a profitable 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS as an underdog of eight or fewer points, including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS versus an opponent entering off a win. Finally, Sun Belt Conference bowl favorites that won eight or fewer games the prior season are a money-burning 2-12 ATS all-time, including 0-7 ATS versus opponents that allow fewer than 28 points per game. Grab the points with Liberty as Oskeim Sports' Free Cure Bowl Winner!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 09:00 AM

Bobby Ligs

Event: (461) Miami Dolphins at (462) Las Vegas Raiders
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: December 26, 2020 8PM EST
Play: Miami Dolphins -3.0 (+100)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 09:02 AM

AAA Sports - NCAAF - Sat, Dec 26 at 3:30 PM
AAA'S FREE WKU-GA STATE WINNER

Western Kentucky vs Georgia State
Western Kentucky +4 (-108) (BetAnySports)

This is a free play (1*) on WESTERN KENTUCKY Kudos to WKU for even making it to a bowl. Certainly, postseason prospects did not appear strong when the Hilltoppers were 2-6. They also opened 0-7 ATS! But they closed the regular season with three straight victories and he we are. We like them plus the points vs. Georgia State in the LendingTree Bowl as WKU brings in one of the nation's best pass defenses at only 170 yards/game allowed. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points, the Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS L6. When this game kicks off, it will have been almost a full month since Georgia State played a game. WKU is 4-2 in bowls including a win last year. Play on WESTERN KENTUCKY

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-26-2020, 09:02 AM

Doc's Sports - NCAAF - Sat, Dec 26 at 3:30 PM
Doc's NCAA Bowl College Football Free Play

Western Kentucky vs Georgia State
Western Kentucky +4.5 (-108) (BetAnySports)

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #287 WKU Hilltops over Georgia State Panthers (3:30p.m., Saturday, December 26 ESPN) LendingTree Bowl The Hilltoppers were one of the most disappointing teams in the country early in the season. They brought back talent and experience but were not competitive early, losing 6 of their first 8 games. They won three straight games to close out the regular season and I believe they are the better team in this matchup. Georgia State finished strong as well, but I just do not believe that they have the same talent as does WKU. The Hilltoppers are 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games played during the month of December. The Panthers are 3-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Football card highlighted by our Bowl Game of the Year and strong college and NBA daily plays.