Service Plays Sunday 12/27/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TKwins


3* Baltimore -9
3* Atlanta +11
4* Denver +3.5

[rocky57]

Michael Crosson (VegasInsider NBA) - Best Bet Boston Celtics -120 (Moneyline)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole Sports

Added

3 OVER Atlanta / KC

[dawggy]

OSKEIM SPORTS

• Game: (455) Cleveland Browns at (456) New York Jets
  Date/Time: Dec 27 2020 1:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Total Over 47.0 (-115)
  
  Cleveland is 8-1 OVER versus .250 or worse opposition, 17-5 OVER versus teams allowing 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt (8-0 OVER from Week 9 out), and 10-2 OVER versus opponents that yield 5.6 or more yards per play. The Jets are allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt (fifth-most in league) and cannot generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks as evidenced by their paltry 4.6% sack rate (26th in league).
  
  New York Jets' Defensive Metrics Per Football Outsiders
  22nd in Total DVOA
  25th in Weighted DVOA
  29th in Pass DVOA
  Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield is averaging 8.4 yards per pass play over his last four games and is likely to improve on those numbers against one of the NFL's worst pass defenses. New York will also be missing interior defender Quinnen Williams, who compiled seven sacks before suffering a neck injury. Mayfield will have ample time to throw downfield behind an excellent offensive line that has conceded the lowest pressure rate in the NFL.
  
  Cleveland Browns' Offensive Metrics Per Football Outsiders
  8th in Total DVOA
  7th in Weighted DVOA
  8th in Pass DVOA
  8th in Rush DVOA
  Cleveland is 8-3 OVER in the second of back-to-back road games, while the Jets are 5-0 OVER following consecutive road affairs. Take the OVER and invest with confidence.

• Game: (475) Los Angeles Rams at (476) Seattle Seahawks
  Date/Time: Dec 27 2020 4:25 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Los Angeles Rams +1.0 (-110)
  
  The Rams have dominated this series from a point spread standpoint, covering the Vegas number in all three meetings since the start of last season. Los Angeles is a profitable 13-5 ATS following a loss under head coach Sean McVay, including 9-2 ATS since the start of last season. Los Angeles is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS off a loss this season, winning by an average of 9.7 points per game.
  
  The Rams are a 63.6% ATS winning proposition in divisional affairs under McVay and are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as road underdogs. Since 1989, NFL teams off a loss as a favorite of at least two touchdowns are 7-3-1 ATS in their next game, including 5-1-1 ATS if they won nine or more games the prior season. NFL teams coming off a loss to an 0-8 or worse opponent are 7-0 ATS in their next game versus .444 or greater foes entering off back-to-back wins. Seattle applies to a very negative 31-70 ATS system of mine that invests against certain teams priced between +3 and -3 in conference clashes.
  Los Angeles enters off one of the biggest regular-season upsets in the past decade, losing to the Jets 23-20. However, the NFL is a contrarian league and the betting market has overreacted to last week's stunning defeat. The Rams rank No. 1 in the entire NFL in raw EPA differential. Los Angeles ranks No. 7 in success rate offensively and No. 4 success rate defensively against the pass.
  
  Finally, Seattle has reverted back to a conservative offensive philosophy that fails to utilize quarterback Russell Wilson's strengths. Indeed, Wilson attempted just four passes with 10-plus air yards last week and finished with an average depth of target of just 5.1 yards. Take the Rams and invest with confidence.

Game: (809) Cal Santa Barbara at (810) Cal Irvine
Date/Time: Dec 27 2020 7:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cal Irvine +2.0 (-110)

The wrong team is favored in this game as my math model favors Cal-Irvine by 0.8 points and the Anteaters have played a substantially more difficult schedule. The betting market has undervalued the Anteaters in light of the fact that head coach Russell Turner had to replace four senior starters this season. However, Turner has demonstrated that Irvine's success is not predicated on roster continuity.
The Anteaters have won the conference title three of the last four seasons and five of the last seven. While Irvine's roster has changed over the years, its success has remained steady. The Anteaters return four players who played significant minutes last season and were an integral part of the team's overall success.
Junior forward Collin Welp, one of the best players in the Big West Conference, returns after leading the team in scoring and three-point percentage in 2019-20. Welp is averaging a team-high 6.9 rebounds per game this season. Redshirt senior Brad Greene is one of the conference's best rebounders and shot blockers and currently leads the Anteaters in blocks per game (1.4).
Irvine's depth is solidified by three returning sophomores, all of whom played in every game last year, averaging 12.6 or minutes. Point guard Isaiah Lee was second on the team in assists and has valuable experience after playing for Australia's national team prior to his freshman season.
From a technical standpoint, Irvine is a profitable 16-6-2 ATS in its last 24 home games and 10-4 ATS in its last fourteen games versus .601 or greater opposition. With the home team standing at 5-2 ATS in the previous seven meetings in this series, grab the points with the Anteaters and invest with confidence.


[/QUOTE]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Ma- 38-35-3 record

Steelers
Patriots
Seahawks
jets
saints- w
LV- w

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Indy -1// pitt
Over 47 chi-jx
Under 55.5 gb-tn

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Clay Travis

Titans +3.5 & the over 55.5 vs Packers
Raiders +3
ATL +11
Browns -9.5
Cardinals-WFT under 42
Rams-Seahawks under 47.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

5-STAR Cincinnati and Houston UNDER 46

Cincinnati's performance on Monday night was a compete outlier. After scoring no more than 17 points in each of their last five games, with an average of just 10 points per game in those contests, Cincinnati managed 27 points against the Steelers. We see the Bengals falling back to their previous form without Joe Burrow and as such do not see them forcing Houston to score enough to anywhere close to the total in this game.
Houston has allowed 27.6 points per game so far this season but Cincinnati is not the team to take advantage of that. The Bengals are 0-13-1 OU (-10.36 ppg) since Sep 11, 1994 as a dog of more than a TD facing a team allowing at least 23 points per game (team=Bengals and line>7 and oA(ooints)>=23 and date>=19940911).

Whole Cincinnati pulled off that massive upset last week the Bengals are still just 3-10-1 on the season. In week 13 of the season and beyond, teams that are below .500 on the season but won by more than three points last game are 243-308-9 OU.

Cincinnati was a 13-point underdog in that game, failing to cover by 23 points. The Bengals are 0-9-1 OU (-7.15 ppg) since Nov 18, 2012 on the road coming off a game as a dog of more than three points where they covered (team=Bengals and A and p:ats margin>0 and 3=20121118).

Before that Cincinnati failed to cover each of their previous two games. Teams that covered by more than 17 points last game after they did not cover in either of their last two games are 152-196-5 OU.

Cincinnati jumped all over Pittsburgh in that game, leading 17-0 at the half. Teams coming off a game as an underdog where they led by at least 17 points at halftime are 117-147-3 OU.

But after Cincinnati pulled off that big upset win last week the Bengals are still huge underdogs in this game and that is a huge sign. Teams are 8+ point dogs after winning by 8+ points last game are 17-34 OU (p:W and p:line>=8 and line>=8).

Houston enters this lower total game coming off a 27-20 loss to the Colts. The Texans are 0-10 OU (-6.70 ppg) since Dec 03, 2017 when the total is under 46 and they are coming off a loss as a dog (team=Texans and total<46 and pL and date>=20171203).

This total is considerably down for Houston as the totals from the Texans last three games have averaged 48.5 points. Teams in games with a total no more than 46 when the average total in their last three games was at least 48 are 132-222-6 OU.

Houston gained 22 first downs in that loss to Colts. The Texans are 0-10 OU (-12.40 ppg) since Nov 01, 2015 as a home favorite when they gained at least 22 first downs last game (team=Texans and HF and p:first downs>=22 and date>=20151101).

Houston threw for 342 yards in the game. The Texans are 0-9 OU (-10.33 ppg) since Dec 24, 2016 at home coming off a game where they threw for at least 300 yards (team=Texans and H and passing yards>=300 and date>=20161224).

SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: HOUSTON 17, Cincinnati 10

[Lexdeoh20189]

New - Indian Cowboy's Picks For Football - Sunday Top Play

7-Unit Play. #464. Take Houston Texans -7.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Houston nearly beat the Colts last week and has had tough losses the last two weeks. Watson fumbled the ball late against the Colts and it was tough to watch as they truly played well and had over 400 yards of offense on a good Colts defense. This Houston team is likely to bounce-back here as they found some quality receivers and rushed teh ball hard and the Bengals do come off a big win against the Steelers, but they only had 220 yards of total offense and they were luck in the sense that Big Ben only threw for 170 yards and 1 touchdown and 1 interception. That will not happen here with Watson and the Texans who are looking to thump somebody after last week and it doesn't matter if it is Allen or Findley, the Bengals come back down to earth here as the Texans wins by 2 possessions or more here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker
Peabody’s pick
Drake

We take
Indiana State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MTI NFL Sunday

4.5-Star Cowboys and Eagles Over 49.5
4.5-Star Green Bay -3.5 over Titans
4.5-Star Bears -1.5, Rams +7.5
4-Star Panthers +1 over Washington

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al demarco

20 dime chicago

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Brian Bitler

9* NFL Extreme Violator

Dallas Cowboys +3 (-106)

[citybeat]

Kyle Akins

SportsBook Breakers

YESTERDAY 8:56 AM
Cleveland @ N.Y. Jets | 12/27 | 1:00 PM EST

Cleveland -10



New York's win last week over the Rams was a huge monkey off the back game for that team. No team wants to go winless for the entire season, but now the Jets are just an anonymous one-loss team. New York pulled off that win as a 17-point underdog, the biggest underdog to win a game since 1995. However, teams coming off a win as huge underdogs have awful track records in their next game. Teams coming off an outright win as at least 11.5-point underdogs are 19-46-2 ATS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA

Totals Titan' - OVER 53.5 - Tennessee - Green Bay