Tuesday 1/5/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 06:14 AM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis

January 5, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
This has been already some week at Pompano Park and there is a $28,183 Pick 5 carryover tonight. That means another $150,000 guaranteed pool for the Pick 5 that starts in Race 1. The 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 6 and that sequence will carry a $20,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

3-Even Louder (7/5)-Made every call a winning one on 12/22 against this kind and handled them easily. There is a concern about the sick scratch on 12/29. A major player if ready for a big try, but the price will be short.
4-Sunrise Hanover (12-1)-Looking for a price and this mare has come off the bench with 2 nice races. Looking for a step-up effort in 3rd race since 10/27 and Simons owns, drives, and trains.
5-BNB (7/2)-Looking for Chindano to leave and get a cozy trip behind the #3 or land on top. Has been in the hunt, finishing on the board in 5 of 6 at the Pomp. Looking for a picture but will need a good steer.

Race 7

2-Wild Nite Tina (3-1)-Comes off a sharp effort from post 8 in 2nd local start. Wallis did pick this camera shy 7-year-old, but the entire field is not used to posing except for #8. Should be forwardly placed and looks like a player.
4-Marvalous Jet (7/5)-Cashed a 4th place check in last after taking the long way around. But tonight, gets a ++ driver change with Hennessey taking the lines. Beaten 4/5 chalk should be there at the wire and will be bet hard.
8-American Arrow (7-1)-Makes 2nd start for new barn and will look for a more determined effort in 2nd race since 10/24. Shows a 152.1 mark on the 5/8's at Plainridge and should offer a solid payout tonight.

Race 8

1-Northern Dali (25-1)-Can land a close-up seat and will use at a big price leaving both the morning line chalks off my ticket.
2-Image Of A Dream (9-1)-Has been in the hunt versus this kind and the program favorites could leave and that will make for a lively pace. Plano can work a stalking trip and roll by late in the mile.
5-Cult Icon (5-1)-Comes off an even effort after 2 straight pictures and now Shetler steers. Fits with this crew and has the gate speed to be forwardly placed at a square price.

Race 9

3-Happy Heart (6/5)-Winner of 2 in a row steps-up but still looks like a threat. Not much gate speed in this group and Hennessey can land on the top of the stack and control the pace.
4-Maddelle (10-1)-Paquet's choice over the other Lareau entry #7. He can find a live cover flow and will offer a nice price. Could surprise if pace is lively.
6-Sue's Night Out (3-1)-Claimed on 12/22 and was pushed up in class in 1st start for new barn and cashed a 2nd place check. Looking for an even better effort and has enough gate speed to get the pocket behind #3.

0.50 Pick 4

3,4,5/2,4,8/1,2,5/3,4,6
Total Bet=$40.50

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 06:15 AM

The Career Maiden

January 4, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Introducing a new handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths?” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses who take an excessive amount of races to finally break their maiden are bad bets when they return against winners next time out. They're often dubbed "Career Maidens."

Background:

We could look at an excessive amount of maiden-breaking attempts as a subjective number. To some, it may be more than 5. Others 10. Even others somewhere in-between or above that total. No matter what your consideration of excessive may be, our ability to look at the numbers in various ranges should be able to give you personal confidence in your assumption, either for or against.

Data Points:

I looked at the Betmix database for runners who made 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10, 12 and 15 starts to break their maidens. Our sample size was over the last 5 full years of racing, 2016-2020, at all tracks.

Overall Findings:

1 start to break maiden: 17.84% wins next out ($0.78 ROI)

2 starts to break maiden: 13.66% wins next out ($0.74 ROI)

3 starts to break maiden: 12.75% wins next out ($0.75 ROI)

4 starts to break maiden: 11.84% wins next out ($0.75 ROI)

5 starts to break maiden: 12.28% wins next out ($0.74 ROI)

8 starts to break maiden: 11.93% wins next out ($0.76 ROI)

10 starts to break maiden: 12.44% wins next out ($0.72 ROI)

12 starts to break maiden: 11.74% wins next out ($0.73 ROI)

15 starts to break maiden: 10.73% wins next out ($0.59 ROI)

16 or more starts to break maiden: 8.61% wins next out ($0.53 ROI)

Overall Findings Verdict:

While horses who break their maiden quicker do tend to outperform their later graduates when facing winners, the discrepancy in numbers happens in two particular cut-offs. First-time starters who win are much more likely to win next out than those who were defeated any number of times before graduation. And, it’s around the 15-start mark that you see the big drop off between horses who took more time to break their maiden have success against winners. A maiden breaker from 2-12 prior starts isn’t wildly different in win rate or ROI.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, tracks with the highest win percentage of first-time starters to win and repeat against winners next time include Los Al (TB) 29%, Thistledown 26%, Hawthorne 25%, Pimlico 25%, Belmont 24%, Turfway 24%.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 06:56 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Delta Downs - Race #4

#3 Tigerbeach	Worth a look at a price in a race with zero pace. This guy will stretch out around two turns and has occasionally flashed enough pace sprinting to suggest he could find the front tonight.
#2 Giant Influence	He has been away nearly two years off the $32,000 claim and resurfaces here for $7,500, so your guess is as good as mine as to what's left in this guy. He probably wins this on class alone, but I'll make him prove it at an underlaid price.
#6 Lovethatcause	Tactical type should get a good run of things near the top while moving around two turns, and he'll be a better fit with this kind than he was with that starter group at Remington.
Race Summary	Tigerbeach goes off the claim for a barn that is better than their current meet stats would indicate, and he's got at least some chance to find the top and get brave if nobody else goes for it.

Delta Downs - Race #7

#6 Wise Anchor	He has been a pretty reliable type throughout his five-race career, and he has proven solid at this two-turn trip locally. He should get another really good run near the top.
#8 Strong Rules	The clear one to beat with a stakes placing on his resume, and he's working well locally. That said, the price is going to be short as he navigates this new two-turn trip.
#1 Ebony Flash	Turned in a pretty sharp score in the debut win here in November, but he was no match for stakes company when never really involved at Fair Grounds last time out. Thinking he's got something better than that to offer with this group.
Race Summary	Wise Anchor has been coming forward slowly throughout his career, but he graduated nicely at a similar trip last time out, and his tactical pace should keep him in the mix from the start.

Delta Downs - Race #8

#2 Misty Day	She made a mockery of that decent allowance group in her first local try, and she should be able to use her tactical speed to get another similarly great trip from close range tonight.
#9 Our Lost Love	Speed draws outside all of the other pace, and it's tough to argue with her recent form after handling a decent group at Fair Grounds on Champions Day.
#6 Pretty Britches	Steps up for this one off a romping win at the $10,000 level, and while she gets a big class test for this one, she has at least some claim on this while moving back into the Broberg barn
Race Summary	Misty Day was the easiest of winners in her first try here last out, and she'll be able to find a nice spot behind a couple of pace players.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 06:57 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Dover Downs - Race #14

#9 SHEEZIK	Followed winner, finished game third, longshot stab from second tier.
#5 I DELIVER	Caught 3-1 pace setter, eligible right back for the same race.
#7 TRUST FUND BABY	Hit board in 12 of 25 last year but didn't win any of them.
Race Summary	Sheezik had plenty of trot behind the pocket-sitting winner and finished third. His second-tier starting spot is offset by a 12-1 morning line. Play a 5-7-9 exacta box.

Northfield Park - Race #1

#2 CHERRY PEEP	Shuffled from pocket, willing finish, gets class relief.
#1 QUADRANGLE	Wired field on class drop, can handle rise from the rail.
#7 WILDFIRE SEELSTER	Tries to pick up where she left off in 33/10-6-7 season.
Race Summary	Cherry Peep, gapped behind the dueling leaders, lost pocket position on the turn and couldn't recover after the closers swept past. She figures tough on the class drop from a favorable post. Play 2-1 and 2-7 exactas.

Pompano Park - Race #1

#1 GALARINA	Back with own kind, draws rail, must use in all gimmicks.
#9 ROCKIN SERENA	Beaten favorite in last three starts, takes another class drop.
#4 TALK SHOW CHICA	Solid 3yo season, can sustain rally in this field.
Race Summary	Galarina is a good fit at this level, turned in a game performance against morning-line favorite Rockin Serena when they met Dec. 15 and can turn the tables with a favorable post switch.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 06:58 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #4

#6 Statesboro	Romped in his last two and his opponents better bring much more than his recent rivals; loves the track and has done well for the rider-trainer combo of Barbaran and Morales.
#8 Boom Five Thousand	Won two of his last three, including his latest over this strip; will battle for the lead.
#1 Maximizer	Has some good sprints to his credit, but those came against lower levels; won an allowance running two turns two races back and could be dangerous turning back.
Race Summary	Statesboro has been overwhelming to his foes lately and can power past these.

Mahoning Valley - Race #5

#1 Candy Exchange	Was second and third in his last two going longer and should be able to close like a freight train at this sprint distance.
#5 King Creed	Breezed to an allowance win fast time at Thistledown in September and has plenty of sprints to his credit that are good enough to win this. Tough if he brings his best.
#3 Midnight Mikey	Lost a photo last time out and has been competitive in allowance sprints; capable of a big effort.
Race Summary	Candy Exchange can benefit from following a solid pace from an inside post and can close well against the fast fractions.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#7 Starlin	Closed for third last out and has been in some very good claiming races; his best are off the pace and he should to be coming on well here.
#5 Ecru	Held on for second after vying for the lead throughout; can dig in when challenged.
#9 War At Sunrise	Goes for his third consecutive win, the latest at two miles; he cuts that in half and will likely be far back. Can move late for a piece of the exotics.
Race Summary	Starlin has enough speed to stay in range and can get the jump on deep closers.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 02:08 PM

Wayne Root - NCAAB - Tue, Jan 05 at 7:00 PM
We are playing Kentucky

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky
Kentucky -12 (-102) (BetAnySports)

Vanderbilt comes into this matchup without a win against a team ranked in the top-150 and they will be playing in just their second road game of the season. In three games against top-100 opponents, Vanderbilt has lost by an average of 16.7 points per game. Calapari says his team is fin putting those early losses behind him. Kentucky is fresh off its best win of the year and should come into this game with plenty of confidence starting the SEC season with a 1-0 record. Take the Wildcats to cover the number at home in Rupp Arena on Tuesday night.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 02:09 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 1	DD ($1 min.) / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Pick 4 (.50 min) (Races 1-2-3-4) / Superfecta (.10 min)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 12:55
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * ALAN'S ARGUMENT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MALIBU JACK: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FAZIO: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ d ays and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CUSTOM READY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	ALAN'S ARGUMENT	5/2	5/1
6	MALIBU JACK	7/2	6/1
4	FAZIO	12/1	7/1
8	CUSTOM READY	9/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	GOLDEN V C	9	6/1	Front-runner	68	61	64.6	43.1	34.6
1	ROUND QUARTER	1	20/1	Front-runner	62	61	60.2	45.0	30.5
3	INLIKE FLEN	3	15/1	Front-runner	45	48	46.1	36.0	22.5
6	MALIBU JACK	6	7/2	Front-runner	73	75	3.8	50.2	45.2
4	FAZIO	4	12/1	Stalker	74	71	75.0	53.3	43.3
8	CUSTOM READY	8	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	62	68	52.2	53.4	46.4
2	ALAN'S ARGUMENT	2	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	73	64	48.8	55.8	49.8
5	SUPERCONDUCTOR	5	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	55	56.8	51.4	37.9
7	BRAVE RIFLE	7	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	53	54	39.8	49.8	38.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 02:11 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16300 Class Rating: 65

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BECKHAM JAMES 2/1
# 5 SUPERDUTY JUSTICE 5/1
# 9 CATASTROPHIC FORCE 15/1

BECKHAM JAMES looks very good to best this field. Has performed very well lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 65 avg Equibase Speed Figure. He has been racing soundly lately while recording strong speed figures. Is a contender - given the 61 speed fig from his most recent race. SUPERDUTY JUSTICE - There is a decent chance that this entry's late pace will improve on Lasix. Perez will almost certainly be able to get this colt to break out quickly in this contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 03:32 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#2 GHOST FIGHTER (ML=3/1)
#6 GREENBACK (ML=5/1)

GHOST FIGHTER - I really like that latest race on December 28th at Parx Racing where he ended up fourth. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. The latest rating of 73 is the highest last race speed figure in the bunch. Sub-par outing in the last race at Parx Racing was due to the off-going (he ended up fourth). Expect better right here in this race under normal track conditions. Gelding is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a nice effort today. GREENBACK - Lake drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more data to figure that this thoroughbred will be tough to beat at this level. Entered a $30,000 Maiden Claiming race at Churchill Downs last time around the track and raced on a sloppy track finishing eighth. Should do better in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BUCKS ARE MOVING (ML=7/2), #3 CHUB ON DA RUN (ML=4/1), #5 MACLEAN'S LEGACY (ML=9/2),

BUCKS ARE MOVING - Doesn't seem to be in a cozy spot in today's event. CHUB ON DA RUN - Any speed figure earned on a track listed as good must be taken with a grain of salt. MACLEAN'S LEGACY - Not likely for this thoroughbred to make an impact with no recent good showings in a short distance event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - GHOST FIGHTER - I like betting on big class droppers like this one. Much easier group this time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 GHOST FIGHTER to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 03:33 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #6 - Post: 2:45pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,800 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#8 CALL YOU TOMORROW (ML=4/1)
#3 QUETTA'S IN CHARGE (ML=5/1)

CALL YOU TOMORROW - This horse picks up a lot of money per race around the track. Uppermost in this event. QUETTA'S IN CHARGE - Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Undeniably on edge for a good one today. Last race December 8th was pretty strong for a $4,000 Claiming race so this gelding's effort wasn't all that bad. Flores and Silva perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +120 return on investment for a jock and trainer. This gelding's last figure is strong enough to score here, I'll play him right back in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 COOL EDGE (ML=3/1), #6 PURE SPECULATION (ML=6/1), #5 STRIKE A STORM (ML=8/1),

COOL EDGE - This gelding hasn't had any strong efforts in short distance events in the last couple of months. Not probable that the rating he registered on December 5th will be enough in this race. PURE SPECULATION - I'd like to see more hospitable recent efforts with morning line odds of 6/1. STRIKE A STORM - Can't play this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint event lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #8 CALL YOU TOMORROW to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	8 with 3 with [2,10,11] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 03:35 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - SA - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 MABEL ISLAND 2/1
# 5 ALWAYS A QUEEN 7/2
# 8 DILLY DILLY PHILLY 4/1

MABEL ISLAND is my choice. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of strong win percentage - 17 percent - at this distance & surface. Looks very strong to be on the front end at the first call. Ought to be considered a solid choice on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. ALWAYS A QUEEN - Has competitive Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a wager in this race. Has decent Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. DILLY DILLY PHILLY - This mare looks good for this event since Lake has a strong win percent with horses going this distance. Will probably compete admirably in the pace contest which bodes well with this group of horses in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 06:40 PM

Sean Murphy - NBA - Tue, Jan 05 at 7:35 PM
Sean Murphy's Tuesday NBA Winner

Utah Jazz vs Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (-105) (BetOnline)

Tuesday NBA Free play. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Utah at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. I think we're seeing a bit of an overreaction from the betting marketplace here with the news that Nets superstar Kevin Durant will miss a week of action due to Covid protocols. The Nets are coming off consecutive losses, including a stunning home defeat against the Wizards last time out so they'll obviously be up for this showdown with the surging Jazz. Utah has won its last two games including a 21-point rout of the Spurs on Sunday. It's going to be tough for it to duplicate that performance here as it shot 55% from the field, made 21 three-pointers and hauled in 51 rebounds in the victory over the Spurs. Look for Kyrie Irving to take the Nets on his back in Durant's absence and at the very least take the Jazz down to the wire on Tuesday night. Take Brooklyn (8*).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 06:41 PM

Bryan Leonard - NCAAB - Tue, Jan 05 at 8:00 PM
BRYAN LEONARD'S IOWA STATE/TEXAS FREE PLAY

Iowa State vs Texas
Iowa State +12.5 (-103) (BetAnySports)

625 Iowa State at Texas The Cyclones are not up to the standards of Texas, but they have proven themselves to be a competent underdog. The only game in which they were not competitive was against the run and gun Iowa Hawkeyes. Coming off a contest with Baylor, we think the Cyclones can put up enough defensive might to keep this game under the number. Texas is coming off its best game of the season, crushing Kansas by 25 points. That brought a lot of national eyes to this program and in turn raises expectations. But the betting markets agree that now is the time to fade them, with West Virginia and Texas Tech on deck. PLAY IOWA STATE

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-05-2021, 06:41 PM

Power Sports - NCAAB - Tue, Jan 05 at 9:00 PM
POWER'S FREE MIZZOU-MISS STATE WINNER!

Missouri vs Mississippi State
Mississippi State +2.5 (-103) (BetAnySports)

1* Mississippi State (9:00 ET): I still don't trust Missouri, even after an impressive win at Arkansas on Saturday. Nor do I think the Tigers deserve to be ranked #13. My own power rankings have them outside the Top 25 and the second of back to back SEC road games is bound to catch up with them here as they visit Starkville to play Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have played spoiler before, ending Georgia's unbeaten run back on Dec 30th. The Bulldogs are 6-2 SU L8 games with the two losses coming by a combined eight points. They are 10-3 ATS L13 games vs. Mizzou including 6-1 here in Starkville. Take the points. 1* Miss State