Saturday 1/9/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (201961) Real Sociedad at (201962) Sevilla
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 9, 2021 8AM EST
Play: Sevilla +122
PLAY: SEVILLA ML +122

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Football Jesus Podcast : Seahawks - 3 ,free pick

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Carmine Bianco

Event: (202545) Hoffenheim at (202546) Schalke 04
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 9, 2021 9AM EST
Play: Hoffenheim -131
German Bundesliga - Hoffenheim at Schalke
Quick Synopsis: While neither team has been in form of late the problems of Schalke remarkably go back to last season where just before the pandemic shut down this team was in the top 6 of the standings before a free fall that's seen them go without a win in 30 straight games. They'll tie a record on Saturday if they fail to win. Hoffenheim's troubles can be traced to injuries but as they get healthy they should string some wins together and with their top striker in good form they should get the win here at a decent price.
The play is Hoffenheim -131

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Nick Borrman

Event: Torino at AC Milan
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 9, 2021 2PM EST
Play: Total OVER 2.75 (-110)
Italy Serie A
TAKE OVER 2.75 GOALS
Line Parameter: 3% to 3.0, but pay up to -130 to get 2.75

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Oskeim Sports

Event: (145) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (146) Washington Football Team
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 9, 2021 8PM EST
Play: Washington Football Team +9.0 (-110)
The historical trends in this game strongly favor The Washington Football Team. NFL playoff underdogs, all road teams, went 6-2 straight-up in the wild-card round the past two seasons. One or more underdogs have won an NFL wild-card round game (outright) in 11 of the past 13 seasons. Road teams are on a red-hot 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS run in the wild-card round over the last three seasons. Underdogs are 10-3-1 ATS in the last fourteen NFC wild-card games.
Tampa Bay is the fourth team since 1970 to be a road favorite of six or more points in a playoff game. The previous three postseason teams lost straight-up. Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady is just 21-19-1 ATS in postseason play, including 4-4 SU and ATS on the road and 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS versus NFC East foes. Let's also note that Brady is a pedestrian 7-5 SU and 4-7-1 ATS in postseason affairs versus .699 or worse opposition, including 0-6-1 ATS when favored by fewer than nine points.
In contrast, Washington is the third team to make the playoffs with a sub.-500 record since 1982. The previous two teams won and covered the point spread in their first playoff games. Washington is a profitable 13-5 SU and 15-3 ATS in the playoffs versus opponents entering off a SU and ATS win, including 9-0 ATS in the last nine. I also like the fact that Washington is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS with quarterback Alex Smith under center.
Finally, Washington's front seven owns a 37% pressure rate (8th-best in NFL) and will cause issues for Brady, whose passing efficiency numbers drop precipitously when under duress. Grab the points with The Washington Football Team as Oskeim Sports' Free NFL Winner on Saturday, January 9.

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Dwayne Bryant

Event: (145) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (146) Washington Football Team
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 9, 2021 8PM EST
Play: Washington Football Team +8.0 (-110)
BET SIZE
2% at +7.5 or better
1% at +7
NO PLAY below +7
I'm expecting the public to be all over the Bucs here. It's Tom Brady in the playoffs against a 7-9 team that most feel does not belong in the postseason. That lack of respect usually leads to an inspired performance. Twice before a 7-9 team has made the playoffs. Both teams won on Wild Card weekend. The Football Team will be playing with a huge chip on its proverbial shoulder, and who doesn't get fired up to face Brady in the playoffs? Washington's defense ranks #3 in DVOA, including #2 against the pass. That WFT pass rush led by Chase Young could make things very uncomfortable for Mr. Brady. Can Washington make it 3-0 for 7-9 playoff teams on Wild Card weekend? I don't know. It is possible, and I definitely expect them to keep this a one-possession game. PLAY WASHINGTON.

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Free Winners for Saturday, January 9th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE CBB PICKS
Oklahoma St @ Kansas St
TIME: 6:00 PM EST
PICK: Oklahoma St -7.5

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Saturday, January 9th, 2021 from VEGAS BLACK CARD CLUB!FREE CBB PICKS
Georgetown @ Syracuse
TIME: 7:00 PM EST
PICKS: Georgetown +10.5

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GAMEDAY NETWORK
FREE NBA WINNER
SATURDAY 1/9/21
Suns @ Pacers
Time: 7:05 PM EST
Free Pick: Pacers -3

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VEGAS SPORTS INSIDERS
SATURDAY 1/9/2021
FREE CBB PICKS
LSU @ Ole Miss
TIME: 8:30 PM EST
PICK: LSU +2

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Sports Action 365
FREE CBB WINNER for SATURDAY 1/9/21:
PLAY San Diego St -11.5 vs Nevada, GAME TIME 9:00 PM EST

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Saturday, January 9: Sam Houston P6 Mandatory Payout Picks

January 8, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Sam Houston Race Park opened its 2021 season Friday, and on Saturday will be rolling over a $51,876 carryover in the Space City Jackpot Pick 6 bet. The money was left from last March when the meet abruptly ended due to the pandemic, and Saturday’s Pick 6 will feature a mandatory payout (does not require a single-ticket winner).

RACE 5 (9:33PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1-1/16 MILES (TURF)

#8 RICK’S RAIDER (20-1) // 24% Win
#10 SLEW TANG CLAN (20-1) // 14% Win
#2 FLEXATI (8-1) // 14% Win
#1 (BOURBON WISDOM (8-5) // 13% Win

Notes: Longshots abound from the algorithm, which welcomes back RICK’S RAIDER from a nearly 4-year layoff as the 1/ST BET top choice. You’ll obviously want to tread cautiously and include others, where prices continue among the top picks. Strong morning line favorite BOURBON WISDOM has more recent form with 4 top-3 finishes since October.

RACE 6 (10:00PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 5-1/2 FURLONGS

#2 LUCKY PROMISE (9-2) // 27% Win
#6 ULTIMATE (2-1) // 19% Win
#5 TAPPED TO THE MAX (3-1) // 15% Win
#1 BOBBY BRINKLEY (7-2) // 12% Win

Notes: The top choice LUCKY PROMISE is a very healthy price for high-percentage trainer Austin Gustafson and finished second at Remington Park behind BOBBY BRINKLEY. Both appear contenders here, along with Steve Asmussen’s Kentucky invader ULTIMATE.

RACE 7 (10:27PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 6 FURLONGS

#1 VEGAS GUY (1-1) // 30% Win
#5 TIZTRUCULENT (8-1) // 17% Win
#2 NEW DICE (20-1) // 11% Win
#4 HE’S A BOMB (15-1) // 10% Win

Notes: Logical Pick 6 single VEGAS GUY has the 1/ST BET highest win projection in the sequence at 30% and the largest spread to the second choice at 13 points. High-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro brings this one in from Kentucky, and was a debut runner-up at Keeneland. First-time starters are under-valued by the AI picks due to insufficient data, but BEAR BRIAN and BURNZ DA BOSS are rookies to consider in the event the favorite does not compete.

RACE 8 (10:54PM ET) // OPTIONAL CLAIMING // 6 FURLONGS

#4 VERRAZANO FIRST (9-5) // 27% Win
#3 JC’S NIGHTCAP (7-2) // 19% Win
#7 IMPACT PLAYER (5-2) // 15% Win
#6 GOLD CRUSHER (8-1) // 11% Win

Notes: Top 1/ST BET choice and morning line chalk VERRAZANO’S FIRST looks for his fifth straight win. He won 4 in a row in Chicago before being claimed by mid-south regional stalwart Karl Broberg. This one could be another potential single.

RACE 9 (11:21PM ET) // OPTIONAL STARTER // 5-1/2 FURLONGS

#7 BOURBON COWBOY (7-2) // 27% Win
#2 ONOMATOPOEIA (5-2) // 18% Win
#8 MINER HEAT (6-1) // 14% Win
#1 COCO TIGER (10-1) // 12% Win

Notes: 9-year-old veteran BOURBON COWBOY comes off a victory and will be making his local debut. He’s 1 of 3 last-out winners in a competitive lineup of 8. This may be a race to get a little extra coverage. The algorithm longshot COCO TIGER adds blinkers for a good barn and returns to his preferred dirt footing.

RACE 10 (11:48PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 6 FURLONGS

#2 CATCH THE DEVIL (5-2) // 25% Win
#4 MY GOLDEN BLING (7-2) // 16% Win
#3 BUBBLE LINE (15-1) // 12% Win
#6 JAN’S TAPIN GO (10-1) // 7% Win

Notes: While the 25% win projection for CATCH THE DEVIL might be a few points lower than some of the others in the Pick 6 sequence, consider this is a 14-horse field. That’s a significant number and 9-point spread to second choice MY GOLDEN BLING. The large fields are where many players spread their options. If you can focus here on 1 or 2 runners and connect, you reduce your ticket costs greatly. Of the first-time starters not represented in the AI picks, TURNIN AND BURNIN figures most prominently.

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Saturday, January 9: Eddie Olczyk's Saturday Spot Plays

January 8, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk

Here are my key plays for a trio of races along the east coast on Saturday. We'll finish up with a longshot price late in the day at Gulfstream.

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 7 (3:15PM ET) //MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT // 1 MILE (DIRT)
#6 SOUND MONEY (4/1 ML)

The last work for Chad Brown's 3-year colt says "go time." See that move for yourself in our exclusive XBTV Workout library, where he drills in company with today's Gulfstream Race 5 maiden special weight entrant Untreated. Sound Money did not like the off track in his last start, and should be up close to the pace on Saturday. He had a good debut run 2 races back at Churchill on a fast track, and the forecast is for sunny skies in South Florida.


AQUEDUCT RACE 8 (3:50PM ET) // ALLOWANCE // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)
#3 MY ROXY GIRL (4/1 ML)

I believe she cannot win on the front end like she tried when going a mile, but can from off the pace while turning back to 6 furlongs. Hoping jockey Eric Cancel (her 7th different rider in her last 8 starts) sits and makes 1 run. There's plenty of pace in this race to run down.


GULFSTREAM RACE 11 (5:21PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING // 1 MILE (TURF)
#8 LA PINTA (15/1 ML)

Hey, that last race was bad and the race running line looks even worse -- even if from an outside post position. She's still fairly outside in here Saturday, but there are some positives to look at with this longshot. Her first career race was good. She races first-time Lasix Saturday. A warm Junior Alvarado jumps in the saddle and they'll have some pace to run into. This is the type of horse who can really pump up exotics at a good number. I'm thinking her odds could be as high as 20-1 off that last bad race.


Good luck and Happy New Year as well!

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Race of the Week: La Canada at Santa Anita

January 7, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$200,000 GRADE 3 LA CANADA STAKES AT SANTA ANITA
Saturday, January 9, 2021
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Saturday's stakes double at the Great Race Place goes in Races 8 and 9, the Grade 3 La Canada on dirt and the Grade 3 Las Cienegas on turf. Both attracted fields of 7, though the former appears more competitive on paper to this eye as Jolie Olimpica stands out in the latter. I'll be curious to see if handicapper Millie Ball uses either of these races in the Xpressbet Beat the Host contest this Saturday.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners FIGHTING MAD and HARD NOT TO LOVE have the signature scores and make this a stout Grade 3 event. PROUD EMMA is a Grade 3 winner, while MESSAGE, SANENUS and NEVER BE ENOUGH have only placed at the Grade 3 level.

Pace:
Speedster FIGHTING MAD could have some company up front with MESSAGE and MISS STORMY D, as well as the pressser SANENUS. It should be an honest tempo and give finishers a chance if they fire.

Our Eyes:
FIGHTING MAD and HARD NOT TO LOVE match up for the fourth time since May. FIGHTING MAD holds a 2-1 edge in terms of out-finishing her rival, while neither has been at the races since late September. So where are they now? That's the key. FIGHTING MAD has given mixed signals in her 2 most recent works with 0-2 maiden Reem. The maiden got the best of her 2 works back, while FIGHTING MAD was interestingly put 8-10 lengths behind that rival when they worked again in company Jan. 4. I'm not sure why you'd train her speed away as that's her best weapon; but he (Bob Baffert) is in the Hall of Fame and I'm not. FIGHTING MAD feels a tad vulnerable while giving 4 pounds to HARD NOT TO LOVE in the La Canada.

HARD NOT TO LOVE reached out nicely late in her New Year's Day workout observed on video at XBTV.com and I loved the way she galloped out very strong. It's good to see her want to do more after dropping 4 decisions around 2 turns since stretching out. The 5-year-old mare has only made 10 starts for patient trainer John Shirreffs and this could be the year she blossoms in routes. We know she loves Santa Anita (9: 5-3-1 here) and has as many local victories as the rest of the field combined. That veteran pilot MIke Smith is replaced by Ricardo Gonzalez should help the price. She gets more pace help in trying to reel in FIGHTING MAD than in some of their previous match-ups.

PROUD EMMA appears more of a Del Mar specialist, but Peter Miller's barn is off to an expected hot start to the winter meet as he's been accustomed to over the years. His December cold streak already seems a distant memory. She's handled MESSAGE twice in recent showdowns and gets a better pace set-up than that front-end rival in this spot. Take PROUD EMMA among those mares, especially after MESSAGE shut it down late in her Dec. 27 work with no gallop-out.

Outsiders here include SANENUS, 0-3 in the US since arriving from her native Chile; MISS STORMY D, who runs second off a 9-month layoff while against the hot early pace shape; and NEVER BE ENOUGH, a turf closer who could be victim to abrasive kickback on dirt that's foreign to her. Her pedigree leans all grass.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: HARD NOT TO LOVE is 9-10 in the superfecta lifetime and 9-9 in the trifecta at Santa Anita.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: No wild longshots are expected in the upper exotics, but PROUD EMMA did deliver a superfecta finish at 18-1 against the top players here in the Zenyatta.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $100 win HARD NOT TO LOVE.