Service Plays Saturday 1/16/21

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

NFL GOM - Bufalo

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Football Jesus text pick this week NFL is New Orleans Saints

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Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
10:18 AM
BALTIMORE @ BUFFALO | 01/16 | 8:15 PM EST
BALTIMORE +2.5
I love Baltimore in this game. Buffalo's run defense was almost non-existent last week, giving up 5.4 yards per carry and 163 total rushing yards to the Colts. How are the Bills going to stop Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and the Ravens' No. 1 rushing offense? Meanwhile Baltimore's defense ranked second in the league during the regular season in points allowed a game (18.9) and should be able to do enough against Josh Allen. I think the Ravens win outright.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS
+723 15-7-2 IN LAST 24 BUF ATS PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 BAL ATS PICKS

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 4:24 PM
BALTIMORE @ BUFFALO | 01/16 | 8:15 PM EST
BALTIMORE +2
In their playoff opener, the Ravens’ defense took on a team averaging 396.4 yards and, after taking a moment to figure things out, allowed just 83 over the final three quarters. Next up for Baltimore is a foe that averages - wait for it - 396.4 yards. The Bills are potent, but RB Zack Moss (ankle) - their top rusher in Games 13-15 and No. 2 on the season - is out. Buffalo’s points ceiling is likely the mid-20s, so all Baltimore would need against the 16th-ranked defense is another steady showing by QB Lamar Jackson. Who needs home field? The Ravens are 11–6 lifetime in postseason road games.

+450 22-16-3 IN LAST 41 NFL ATS PICKS
+1005 19-8 IN LAST 27 BAL ATS PICKS
+674 11-4-1 IN LAST 16 BUF ATS PICKS

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Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
10:08 AM

L.A. RAMS @ GREEN BAY | 01/16 | 4:35 PM EST
GREEN BAY -6.5
I think Green Bay covers with ease. L.A.'s defense is good, but the Packers should be able to move the ball behind the Aarons -- Rodgers and Jones. I'm also expecting a big game from receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. On the other side of the ball, Rams quarterback Jared Goff, who's nursing a broken thumb, will struggle against an underrated Green Bay defense. The Packers are my best bet to win the whole thing.

+535 23-16-4 IN LAST 43 NFL ATS PICKS
+591 18-11-1 IN LAST 30 LAR ATS PICKS
+411 13-8 IN LAST 21 GB ATS PICKS

Matt Severance
SEVERANCE PAYS
YESTERDAY 10:07 AM

L.A. RAMS @ GREEN BAY | 01/16 | 4:35 PM EST
GREEN BAY -6.5
Los Angeles doesn't know who its starting quarterback will be, and its best receiver (Cooper Kupp) and arguably the NFL's best defensive player (Aaron Donald) are banged up -- although no doubt going to play. The Packers are well-rested, and it will be quite chilly at Lambeau on Saturday, which is an obvious disadvantage to the warm-weather Rams. Aaron Rodgers will finally get to host an NFC title game -- I don't usually bet NFL games this early in a week, but with the spread falling under 7 will do so. Green Bay has covered six straight in the series.

+225 20-16-1 IN LAST 37 NFL PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 GB ATS PICKS
+180 4-2 IN LAST 6 LAR ATS PICKS

Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
YESTERDAY 12:38 AM

L.A. RAMS @ GREEN BAY | 01/16 | 4:35 PM EST
GREEN BAY -6.5
It's tempting to take the dog here but with the Rams dealing with injury issues at quarterback, wideout and on the defensive line, Green Bay is the play. The Packers are clicking offensively and had an extra week to gameplan. Moreover, the wind chill will be in the low 20s. Look for Aaron Rodgers to improve to 11-5-1 ATS alltime when getting two weeks to prepare.

+890 19-9-2 IN LAST 30 NFL ATS PICKS
+979 21-10 IN LAST 31 GB ATS PICKS
+706 23-14 IN LAST 37 LAR ATS PICKS

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
MON 1/11

L.A. RAMS @ GREEN BAY | 01/16 | 4:35 PM EST
GREEN BAY -7
The Rams may very well have the best defense in the league coming into this matchup, but the Packers offense has been nearly impossible to stop all year, ranking first in several key categories like yards per drive, red-zone success rate, percentage of drives ending in a score, turnover rate, and so on. I've also been impressed by their defense, which shut down a great Tennessee offense in Week 16 before doing the same to a hot Bears offense to earn the No. 1 seed. Coming to Lambeau in January and competing would be hard at full health, but with the Rams' injury issues at QB and with star defender Aaron Donald, I don't think they manage to cover here.

+1670 78-55-5 IN LAST 138 NFL PICKS
+2952 42-11 IN LAST 53 GB ATS PICKS
+1606 34-16-1 IN LAST 51 LAR ATS PICKS

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Doc Sports

8-unit Game of the Year
green bay-6.5

3 baltimore+2.5

[GetTheseDimes]

Scott Spreitzer 8* GOY GB -6.5
Strike Point Sports 6* GB-6.5

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Las Vegas Cris

4% Bills

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Pick Made: Jan 10 2021 6:07PM PST

HITMAN | NFL Total Sat, 01/16/21 - 4:35 PM
302 GBP / 301 LOS Under 47.0 William Hill double-dime bet


Analysis:

WEEKEND PROPS (KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ADDITIONS)




Jamaal Williams (GB) U20.5 rush yds -110 (MGM/BET365)
Josh Allen (BUF) O39.5 rush yds -115 (WHill/FD/BET365)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) O18.5 rush yds -110 (FD)
Alvin Kamara (NO) O35.5 rec yds -110 (FD)





Perfect storm for an under play.


Jared Goff is likely still not 100%, and the impact of his thumb injury is magnified in cold weather. Early forecasts are calling for 20 degree temperatures at Lambeau. Jared Goff in his career when the weather is 40 degrees or below has 5 TD passes, 7 interceptions, and a measly 5.9 YPA. The Rams game plan is going to be similar to what it was against Seattle: Heavy on 12 personnel, run the ball, play great defense and keep the ball out of Rodgers hands.


Green Bay for the first time is facing a team with a legitimate pass rush without all pro LT David Bhaktari. The Rams defense matches up perfectly¼ against this Packers offense: They have the best cornerback in the NFL, Jalen Ramsey, who can shadow Davante Adams, and Green Bay isn't exactly flourishing with weapons next to Adams

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Steve Merrill

3% Green Bay -6.5
3% Green Bay Over 45.
3% Baltimore Over 50

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King Creole

3*** GAME OF THE YEAR! Flying OVER the TOTAL

Baltimore Over 50 or less

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BEN BURNS

NFL SAT. AFTERNOON VIOLATOR!

2* Los Angles Rams @ Green Bay Packers - Under 46.0

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Joe Gavazzi - NFL


NFL Executive Plays

Saturday, January 16th

3% UNDER 45- Green Bay Packers 4:35 PM ET.

4% Baltimore Ravens (+2-) 8:15 PM ET.

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Matt Severance

BALTIMORE @ BUFFALO | 01/16 | 8:15 PM EST
BALTIMORE +2.5
ANALYSIS: It seems like no one is giving the Bills much respect here, and I'd probably take them if the stadium was full of fans. However, Lamar Jackson got that playoff monkey off his back last week and is 14-4-1 ATS on the road in his NFL career. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 10-3 ATS on the road in the playoffs. Buffalo's biggest weakness is run defense, which was seventh-worst in the NFL in terms of yards per carry allowed in the regular season and which allowed 5.4 yards per carry last week against Indy. That plays right into Baltimore's hands as it has been unstoppable on the ground during a six-game winning streak. Frankly, the moneyline is probably your best value here but we'll take the points.

+225 20-16-1 IN LAST 37 NFL PICKS
12:20 PM

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Dave Cokin:

Baltimore Ravens +2.5