Saturday 1/16/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Brighton at Leeds United

Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: January 16, 2021 10AM EST

Play: Brighton +0.5 (-125)

England Premier League

Brighton is one of those teams that has deserved better this year. They currently are just above the relegation zone with a 2-8-8 record and -8 goal differential and they haven’t won a game since November 21 at Aston Villa.

However, if you look closer at their results, they only have five losses in their last 14 games as they have played to eight draws during that time. Those losses came against Tottenham, Southampton, Leicester, Arsenal and Man City just this past week and only one of those teams has a negative xG differential. That’s notable here because Leeds has a negative goal differential at -0.28.

When looking at Leeds record in the table, they are nine points above Brighton with a 7-2-8 record but still have a -3 goal differential thanks to owning the 2nd worst defense in the league, conceding 33 goals thru 17 games. Of all 98 teams in the Top 5 European Leagues, they allow the 6th most xGA per game.

Now if we look closer at their results, of their seven wins, only one of them has come against teams with a positive goal differential while five of their wins have come against the five teams with the worst xG differential in the league in West Brom, Fulham, Newcastle, Sheffield and Burnley. And of course Brighton come in with a positive goal differential of +0.13.

Long story short, Brighton really only loses to the Top teams in the league while Leeds only beat the worst teams in the league and according to xG, Brighton is the 8th best team in the league while Leeds is #14.

I simply cannot trust Leeds defense here laying any goals and will gladly grab the number on Brighton

TAKE BRIGHTON +0.5

Line Parameter: 4% to +0.25, but pay up to -140 to get +0.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Event: (601) Ohio State at (602) Illinois
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Illinois -5.0 (-110)
This line is not going to hold, so try to play now if possible. Already seeing -5.5 and even one -6. Simple stuff for me. It's been a season to date where playing on top teams off a loss has been very productive. Illinois is off a loss and it was a game where they shot way below their norm from the field. It was also a home loss so I would definitely expect a rebound here. The Illini have gone 3-0 off a loss so far by a combined 59 points. I don't see this being a 20 point blowout but it doesn't need to be at the current tag. Ohio State is absolutely a quality team and the Buckeyes are in good form. But if it's not broken don't try to fix it and I'm feeling loads of good results backing top teams in this situation. Illinois minus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (201333) Udinese at (201334) Sampdoria
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 2PM EST
Play: Total Over 2.5 (+100)
Seven of Sampdoria's last eight Serie A games have featured both teams to score as they continue to struggle defensively, and the Blues rank bottom five in the league on expected goals against, giving up 1.76 xga on average.
And while Udinese do rank as one of Serie A's best defenses on the season, of late they've really struggled, actually ranking 2nd last in the league in 2021, giving up 4.85 xga across their last two games.
We see goals in this one and like both teams to get on the scoresheet and push this one over the total on Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Las Vegas Cris

Event: (301) Los Angeles Rams at (302) Green Bay Packers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Los Angeles Rams +7.0 (-110)
(17-7 71% Free plays). Rams +7) Last week I put Saints here as a play I was looking to place a wager on after checking the lay of the land. This is exactly the same situation. I like the Rams in this matchup but we need to bide our time to see what the story really is with the Injuries. (So, Cris, WTF This isn't a play) No, Mr Helper, it isn't, but this is the opportunity like last week, to have an idea of what I'm thinking. Lets see how the Injuries and narratives shape, and if all is good, I plan to play the Rams here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Ligs

Event: (301) Los Angeles Rams at (302) Green Bay Packers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-115)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

Event: (301) Los Angeles Rams at (302) Green Bay Packers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Green Bay Packers -6.5 (-110)
Take Green Bay (#302)
Things in life I don’t trust:

1. Jared Goff catching less than a touchdown in a matchup against Aaron Rodgers
2. Jared Goff’s bad thumb against a defense that can create pressure and turnovers
3. Warm weather LA teams playing in Wisconsin in January
4. Sean McVay’s play calling once his team falls behind

And there’s one trend worth noting as well. In the divisional round, teams off a loss in the conference championship game last year – like the Packers – are particularly motivated to open the playoffs the following year, to the tune of 43-7 SU, 33-15-2 ATS. When they’re facing an opponent off a double digit win – like the one the Rams notched last week – those teams are 21-3 ATS. Throw in a 3-9 ATS run for teams playing back-2-back road games in the playoffs and the case for the home favorite is perfectly clear. Take the Packers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gianni the Greek

Event: (24129) Justin Tafa at (24130) Carlos Felipe
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 6PM EST
Play: Total Over 1.5 (-185)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (533) Atlanta Hawks at (534) Portland Trail Blazers
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: January 16, 2021 10PM EST
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -4.0 (-110)
Two teams off really disappointing nights last time out in overall metrics, but it's the Blazers we expect to bounceback here.
Portland were absolutely abysmal from the floor in Thursday night's loss against the Indiana Pacers, racking up just 87 points (well down from their 116.0 ppg average, 6th highest in the league) and had a mammoth drop-off of 9.0% (44.3%) on their effective field goal percentage, down from their season average of 53.3%.
Portland are the better team here and we expect a big bounceback from them tonight minus the short price.
Take the Blazers minus the points for Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns - SOCCER - Sat, Jan 16 at 10:00 AM
FREE

Burnley FC vs West Ham
West Ham -117 (BetOnline)

Burnley has given West Ham some trouble in the past. However, there's a considerable difference in the way the two clubs have played this season. Entering the weekend, West Ham has been solid and sits in 10th in the standings. The Irons have scored 24 goals while conceding 21. On the other hand, Burnley has managed a mere nine goals, tied with Sheffield for the lowest mark in the league. At the same time, Burnley has conceded 21. West Ham is undefeated in 2021, winning an FA Cup Game while also beating Everton in EPL action. Consider West Ham.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach - SOCCER - Sat, Jan 16 at 10:00 AM
Scott Rickenbach EPL Free Pick

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United Over 2.75 (-118) (BetOnline)

OVER the total in Leeds United vs Brighton & Hove - Of course I am aware of the recent trend of many unders in Premier League action. However, this one certainly should buck that trend and I will take advantage of the additional value here as this one has dropped in some books after opening at a total of 3 goals. I understand the drop below 3 because of the overall recent trending in the league but that is merely serving to give us line value here. Leeds United is averaging nearly 2 goals per match this season but also allowing nearly 2 goals per match. Brighton & Hove is averaging 1.2 goals per match on the road this season but the reason this team has only 2 wins on the season is they are not exactly a powerhouse in terms of defending their won goal and they have allowed nearly 2 goals per match. This one is a value play all the way and I won't pass up on it as I fade the line move. OVER the total in Leeds United

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA, Inc. - NCAAB - Sat, Jan 16 at 1:30 PM
ASA Free Pick Saturday CBB

San Diego State vs Utah State
San Diego State +4 (-105) (BetAnySports)

#625 ASA FREE PLAY ON San Diego State +4 over Utah State, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - We always like considering good teams off losses and that’s what we have here. Not only did SDSU lose on Thursday night, they lost to this Utah State team. The Aztecs lost by 12 in that Thursday loss but shot terribly at 31% making only 17 of their 54 shot attempts. They are one of the better 3-point shooting teams in the nation (36th) but only mad 24% of their shots from beyond the arc in that loss. It was their worst offensive outing of the year by a wide margin. Earlier in the season they were in a similar situation losing to Colorado State on the road on a Saturday and then beating them by 13 just 2 days later. We were on SDSU on that game and expect a similar outcome here. Utah State is a solid 10-3 on the year however Thursday was their first win over a top 100 opponent. The 3 other top 100 opponents they had faced before Thursday (VCU, BYU, and South Dakota State) all resulted in losses with 2 of those setbacks coming by double digits. Beyond those game, plus their game vs San Diego State, the Aggies haven’t faced a single team ranked inside the top 200. Utah State was favored by just 1 point on Thursday and now they are laying 3.5 here which we feel is a bad number. San Diego State has been solid bounce back team covering 8 of their last 10 off a loss including both games following their 2 losses this year prior to Thursday. We like SDSU to win this one outright.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al McMordie - NCAAB - Sat, Jan 16 at 2:00 PM
Big Al's FREE Minnesota/Michigan Winner!

Michigan vs Minnesota
Minnesota +6 (-102) (BetAnySports)

At 2 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers + the points over Michigan. This is a huge revenge spot for #23-ranked Minnesota, which lost in Ann Arbor 10 days ago, 82-57. And Michigan followed up that 25-point blowout with an even more impressive 23-point rout against #9-ranked Wisconsin -- a game Michigan once led by 40 points. But off those two huge wins, a letdown is in order this afternoon in Minneapolis. And it's certainly worth noting that Michigan is a horrid 6-27 ATS on the Big 10 road against an opponent off a loss, if Michigan won at home against a conference foe in its previous game (and also won 2 games back). Take Minnesota + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy - NBA - Sat, Jan 16 at 5:05 PM
Sean Murphy's Saturday NBA Winner

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs -6.5 (-115) (BetOnline)

Saturday NBA Free play. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Houston at 5:05 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs got caught flat-footed against the new-look Rockets on Thursday night, perhaps overlooking Houston following the blockbuster trade involving James Harden. Here, I look for a far more focused effort from San Antonio as it looks to bounce back on its home floor. Meanwhile, we can't expect the Rockets to bring that same level of intensity and cohesion we saw on Thursday every night. Say what you want about the return they got in the Harden deal but the fact is, they're no longer true contenders in the crowded Western Conference - at least not this season. We did win with the Spurs earlier this week in their much-needed victory in Oklahoma City. If they were to drop a second straight game to the Rockets at home that 'W' would have been all for not. This is a step-up spot for San Antonio and I'm confident it will do just that. Take San Antonio (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist - NFL - Sat, Jan 16 at 8:15 PM
Jim Feist's FREE NFL Play, Saturday, Jan 16

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Under 49.5 (-105) (BetAnySports)

The 11-5 Baltimore Ravens take on the 13-3 Buffalo Bills in this AFC Divisional playoff matchup. The Ravens lead this series with the Bills 6-3. These teams last met in 2019 in a Baltimore win, 24-17. The Ravens have been good to bettors this year, going 10-5-1 ATS. They are 8-5-1 when a dog of at least 1.5-points. The Bills defense isn't anywhere near as dominating as it was last year, with it ranking mostly in the bottom half of the league. The Bills have a potent offense, scoring 31.3 ppg this year. The Ravens offense average 29.2 ppg this year. Ever since Baltimore survived their COVID breakout, they have been playing their best ball of the season. Lamar Jackson got his first playoff win after winning MVP last year and losing his first postseason game. The Ravens should keep the ball out of Josh Allen and the Bills highly explosive passing attack. The Ravens are great at controlling the close and running ball. Their defense also is very good and 2nd in the league in third down stops. Always have to look to the weather here in Buffalo this time of year. The winds will pick up as the game goes along with up to 18 mph winds. The temps will be cold but above freezing in the mid-30's and there could be light snow showers. Your FREE play is on the UNDER.