Sunday 1/17/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL TRENDS

Sunday, January 17

Cleveland @ Kansas City
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 23-2 SU in its last 25 games
Kansas City is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

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Matchup - Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans

Date: Sunday January 17
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
TV-Time: FOX, 6:40 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Saints -3, Total 52

Tampa Bay Road Record: 7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS, 6-3 O/U
New Orleans Home Record: 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 6-3 O/U

Head-to-Head

It's Round Three between these NFC South rivals as the Saints took care of the Buccaneers in each of the first two matchups by double-digits apiece. New Orleans topped Tampa Bay in Tom Brady's debut with the Buccaneers in Week 1 at the Superdome, 34-23. The Saints returned a Brady interception for a touchdown and won as four-point favorites in spite of gaining 271 yards of offense.

In the second matchup at Raymond James Stadium in early November, the Saints wrecked the Buccaneers as three-point underdogs, 38-3 for their fifth straight win in the series. New Orleans outgained Tampa Bay, 420-194, while the Saints held the ball for 40 minutes.

Playoff Notes

New Orleans and Tampa Bay are hooking up for the first time ever in the postseason, while the Saints look to improve on a 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS record under head coach Sean Payton at home in the second round.

The Buccaneers picked up their first playoff win since 2007 after edging Washington last week, 31-23 as 10-point favorites. Brady is undefeated in his last eight divisional round appearances, although they all came at home as a member of the Patriots. The last time Brady played on the road in the divisional round came at San Diego in 2006 as New England escaped with a 24-21 victory.

The last time Tampa Bay played in the divisional round was back in 2002, when the Bucs rolled the 49ers, 31-6 and eventually captured their first and only Super Bowl in franchise history.

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Matchup - Cleveland vs. Kansas City

Date: Sunday January 17
Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
TV-Time: CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET

Opening Line: Chiefs -10, Total 56

Cleveland Road Record: 6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Kansas City Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Head-to-Head

This is the second meeting on the pro level between these former Texas Tech quarterbacks as Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs past Baker Mayfield and the Browns, 37-21 as 7.5-point road favorites in 2018.

Kareem Hunt scored three touchdowns for Kansas City, but the running back is now with Cleveland, making for an interesting storyline. The Chiefs and Browns are hooking up in the playoffs for the first time ever, while Cleveland is making its first trip to Arrowhead Stadium since 2015.

Playoff Notes

The Browns clinched their first postseason berth since 2002, when they ultimately lost to the rival Steelers in the Wild Card round. Fast forward 18 years later, Cleveland jumped out to a 28-0 first quarter lead to bounce Pittsburgh from the playoffs in a 48-37 triumph as five-point underdogs.

The Chiefs are fresh off their first Super Bowl title in nearly 50 years when they rallied past the 49ers last February. Kansas City is 4-1 in the playoffs with Mahomes as their starting quarterback, including a 3-1 mark at Arrowhead.

AFC top seeds won six consecutive divisional round games from 2013-18 before Baltimore was tripped up by Tennessee in 2019. Kansas City's four postseason victories under Mahomes' guidance have all come by 11 points or more.

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NFL

Division Round

Sunday’s games

Cleveland (12-5) @ Kansas City (14-2)
— Cleveland won seven of its last nine games.
— Last week was new Browns’ first playoff win ever, their first playoff game since ‘02.
— Cleveland won five of its last six road games.
— Browns won six of their last eight games overall.
— Browns lost field position in eight of their last nine games.
— Cleveland gave up 28.0 ppg in their last six games.
— Mayfield is playing in his first NFL playoff game.

— Kansas City had last week off, also rested guys in Week 17.
— Chiefs won 10 of last 11 games, but are 0-7-1 ATS in last eight games.
— Chiefs are 9-7 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 3-5 TY.
— Last eight games, Kansas City allowed 26.3 ppg
— Last time Chiefs covered was November 1st against the Jets.
— Before winning Super Bowl LY, Chiefs had lost 12 of previous 14 playoff games.

— Chiefs won last three series games, by 6-4-16 points.
— Browns are 1-3 at Arrowhead, with lone win in 2009.
— Cleveland lost last two visits here, 23-17/17-13- their last visit here was 2015.

Tampa Bay (12-5) @ New Orleans (13-4)
— Last week’s win was Tampa Bay’s first playoff game since 2007.
— Tom Brady has a 31-11 career record in playoff games.
— Buccaneers won last five games, scoring 26-31-47-44-31 points.
— Last six games, Bucs converted 45-95 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay is 12-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Bucs won their last six road games; they’re 2-1 ATS as an underdog.

— New Orleans is 3-2 in its last five games, giving up 21 ppg.
— Saints are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games.
— Five of New Orleans’ last 12 games were decided by exactly three points.
— Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last ten games overall.
— Under is 7-3 in Saints’ last ten games.
— Saints are 5-6 in playoff games, since winning Super Bowl 11 years ago.
— Brees is 9-8 in playoff games, 2-5 in 2nd+ playoff game of a year.

— Saints beat Tampa Bay twice this year, 34-23 (week 1), 38-3 (week 9).
— New Orleans led 17-7/31-0 at halftime of the two games.
— In 2nd meeting, Bucs ran ball five times for 8 yards, the whole game!!!

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Oskeim Sports

Event: (305) Cleveland Browns at (306) Kansas City Chiefs

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: January 17, 2021 3PM EST

Play: Cleveland Browns +10.0 (-110)

Let's begin by looking at what the Browns accomplished last week in their shocking upset over Pittsburgh. Cleveland didn't practice until 48 before the kick-off last Sunday due to COVID-19 issues (held virtual team meetings instead). Despite missing head coach Kevin Stefanski, Pro Bowl left guard Joel Bitonio, edge rusher Olivier Vernon and top cornerback Denzel Ward, the Browns left Heinz Field with a convincing 48-37 win and a date with the defending Super Bowl champions.

The key in this game will be Cleveland's ability to control the line of scrimmage with a ground attack that is ranked 8th in the league in Rush DVOA (-0.8%). Cleveland's offensive line is ranked 4th in Running Back Yards (4.91), 4th in Open Field Yards (1.10), and 1st in Second Level Yards (1.45). Meanwhile, the Chiefs' defense is ranked 24th in Weighted Total DVOA (4.9%), including 31st in Rush DVOA (2.6%).

Kansas City's front seven has allowed opposing running backs an average of 3.0 yards per carry before first contact this season and rank 25th in Adjusted Line Yards (4.67) so Cleveland tailbacks Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are poised to have productive games on Sunday. Cleveland's offensive line also did an excellent job protecting quarterback Baker Mayfield last week against Pittsburgh.

Mayfield was pressured on just 19.4% of his dropbacks (the lowest rate for any quarterback last weekend) despite missing two starting offensive linemen and the Chiefs' defense is below-average in Adjusted Sack Rate (6.2%, 18th). From Weeks 12 to 17, Mayfield ranked No. 5 in the NFL in QBR (79.6%) and threw three touchdown passes without a turnover in his first career playoff start.

Cleveland welcomed back starting cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson, who were both activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list after missing the past two games. Ward led the NFL during the regular season with 16 passes defended despite missing four games. Stefanski, who tested positive for the virus last week and missed the Wild-Card Round game in Pittsburgh, is also expected to rejoin the team by Thursday.

Since 2004, NFL Divisional Round underdogs are a profitable 22-11-1 ATS against No. 1 seeds, generating a 28.5% return on investment. Divisional home favorites of 6 or more points are just 17-19-1 ATS since 2006, while Divisional Round road teams are an incredible 21-8-1 ATS on Sundays over that span.

Grab the points with the Browns as Oskeim Sports' Free NFL Divisional Round Winner for Sunday, January 17.

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (305) Cleveland Browns at (306) Kansas City Chiefs

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: January 17, 2021 3PM EST

Play: Kansas City Chiefs -10.0 (-105)

Big emotional win for the Browns last week and even with everyone back, we just don't see them matching that same type of intensity here in back to back games.

While the Chiefs have failed to secure a double digit win since all the way back in Week 8 against the Jets, they are an incredibly dangerous team fully rested as they showed coming out of their bye week in Week 10, putting up 62 points and 1,008 total yards in their first two games out of their bye against the Raiders and Buccaneers respectively.

That was a much better Bucs defense than they'll face here against the Browns on Sunday so the only way I'm looking in this one is towards the Chiefs in a spot we think they roll in by at least two touchdowns.

PLAY: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -10

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Marco D'Angelo

Event: (305) Cleveland Browns at (306) Kansas City Chiefs

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: January 17, 2021 3PM EST

Play: Total Over 57.0 (-110)

2% CLEVELAND/KANSAS CITY OVER 57

The Cleveland defense has not been good down the stretch giving up 25 at Jax, 35 at Tenn, 47 to Balt, 23 to the Jets, 22 to Pittsburgh with back ups playing and 37 last week.



PROJECTED TOTAL POINTS 63 or more

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Gianni the Greek

Event: (305) Cleveland Browns at (306) Kansas City Chiefs

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: January 17, 2021 3PM EST

Play: Total Over 57.0 (-110)

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Steve Merril

Event: (307) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (308) New Orleans Saints

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: January 17, 2021 6PM EST

Play: 1Q Tampa Bay Buccaneers +0.5 (-125)

-Tampa Bay has won the first quarter in their last 3 games by a combined score of 32-3

-New Orleans lost the first quarter 7-0 to the Bucs in their home game back in Week 1

-Buccaneers lost both meetings to the Saints this season, so expect a fast start in this game

Play BUCCANEERS (+) 1st quarter.

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Hakeem Profit

Event: (307) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (308) New Orleans Saints

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: January 17, 2021 6PM EST

Play: New Orleans Saints -165

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Ralph Michaels

Event: (307) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (308) New Orleans Saints

Sport/League: NFL

Date/Time: January 17, 2021 6PM EST

Play: Total Under 52.0 (-110)

UNDER 52 NO?TB

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Chip Chirimbes

Cleveland at Kansas City 3:05 ET

Browns/Chiefs UNDER- Lovely, it was so easy for the Browns to score 48 points last week while surrendering 37 after taking a ridiculous 28-8 first quarter lead. This week Cleveland will learn after what 20 years what real playoff football is about! No one is going to hand them touchdowns and lay down this week. The Browns hadn't won in Pittsburgh in 19 years and everyone is still a glow in the manner of the win. Points won'y come so easy this week...Stay UNDER!

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DOC'S SPORTS

NFL | Jan 17, 2021
Browns vs. Chiefs
Browns+10½ -123

Take Cleveland over Kansas City (3 p.m., Sunday, Jan. 17)

I will take the points in this game and I think that Cleveland has a great chance to make this a close game and potentially upset the Chiefs. The Browns blew out Pittsburgh easily last week, taking a 28-0 lead in the first quarter and never looking back. The Browns have won seven of their last nine games and have not lost by more than 10 points in a game since Oct. 18. The Browns have one of the best running games in football. They were No. 3 in rushing yards this year, and I think that they will be able to run the ball and move the ball against the Chiefs. Kansas City is coming off a bye week. They also rested their starters in Week 17. That means it will be three weeks in between real game action for Kansas City’s starters. I think that they will be rusty and that could allow the Browns to jump out to a fast start. Kansas City is just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall, and their last seven wins have all come by a touchdown or less. Four of their last seven wins have come by just a field goal. Kansas City is 0-4 ATS at home and they are just 1-4 ATS as a home favorite. I think that this is too many points, and I will go with the underdog.

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MARC LAWRENCE

NFL | Jan 17, 2021
Browns vs. Chiefs
Play - Browns-Chiefs UNDER 57.5

Chiefs: Head coach Andy Reid 6-9-1 UNDER at home in the playoffs, including 1-5 UNDER at home with rest …

With playoff teams that scored 40 or more points away in their last playoff game just 0-3 UNDER since 2000 in their next playoff game, we recommend a 1* play in the UNDER total in this contest. Thank you and good luck as always.

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BOB VALENTINO

On paper this Browns-Chiefs game looks like the Over of the weekend as Cleveland is fresh off a 48-37 Wild Card win last Sunday night at the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that obviously landed Over the total.

The Browns have now landed Over the total in their last pair and 5 of their last 7 games overall.

Meanwhile, Kansas City got a chance to catch their breathe with a bye during last weekend's festivities so their engine should be ready to roar today in this home game as they put their 3-1 Over mark their last 4 games on the line today.

The oddsmakers know what both teams are capable of doing when it comes to putting up points today and that is reflected in the total for this contest which happens to be the highest of the 4 games on the weekend card.

Yes, I suppose this game could be played in the 30's, but something tells me that the 48 points the Browns achieved last Sunday night against the listless and mostly dead Steelers won't happen today against the defending Super Bowl Champs.

Let's play this game Under the total.

2* CLEVELAND-KANSAS CITY UNDER