Wednesday 1/20/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andrew McInnis

Event: (24349) Mason Jones at (24350) Mike Davis
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: January 20, 2021 9AM EST
Play: Mike Davis -160
Mike Davis -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Stuttgart at Arminia Bielefeld
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 20, 2021 2PM EST
Play: Stuttgart (-120)
Germany Bundesliga
Both of these teams were promoted from Bundesliga 2 last year but Arminia has struggled much more so far. They have pulled themselves out of the relegation zone though, currently in 15th place and two points clear thanks to two wins and a draw in their last four games. Of course, those games came against Hertha Berlin, Hoffenheim and Schalke, all of whom have negative goal differentials and negative xG differentials.
Stuttgart however, is not one of those teams. Although they only have five wins this year, they also only have four losses thanks seven draws in 16 matches. But they have been rather unlucky with those results as they have a +8 goal differential and an average xG differential of +0.31 per game thanks to the 5th highest xG average in the league behind only the big boys Bayern, Dortmund, Leipzig and Frankfurt.
Arminia has the 2nd worst xG differential in the league at -1.09 as they average the lowest xG in the league at 0.68 per game while allowing the 4th most xGA per game at 1.77. They have struggled with creativity in front of the goal and they are simply not a team I’m excited to get behind or trust to score goals when needed as they have just ten goals all season in 16 matches while Stuttgart has netted 32, tied for 2nd most in the league.
Stuttgart is favored for a good reason, take advantage of the short price on them.
TAKE STUTTGART TO WIN (ML or -0.5)
Line Parameter: 4% to -0.75 but pay up to -140 on the ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

Event: (200091) Manchester United at (200092) Fulham
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 20, 2021 3PM EST
Play: Manchester United -0.75 (-129)
After running our FREE play streak to 5-0 with Tuesday's Coppa Italia outright upset of Roma by Spezia (+1.5), we'll go back to the pitch, riding visiting Manchester United at Fulham in Premier League action. Outside of an FA Cup win in extra time over Queens Park Rangers that ended scoreless after 90 minutes, Shad Khan's team hasn't won since Nov. 30 and has won only once all season at Craven Cottage. Fulham is 18th in the standings, in danger of being relegated if it fails to pick it up. Coming off a goalless draw at Liverpool on Sunday, Man U. should be motivated to pick it back up and will have plenty of options up front with catalysts like Paul Pogba and Bruno Fernandes expected to be in the mix in midfield. Back Manchester United to get all three points here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (208353) Fluminense at (208354) Coritiba
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 20, 2021 6PM EST
Play: Draw +213
Sitting squarely in the relegation zone, 19th placed Coritiba have turned a corner of late, notching 4 points over their last two games, but need another solid result here on Wednesday against 7th place Fluminense to try and move out of danger.
Fluminense have their own issues however. Despite sitting in 7th, Fluminense have won just two of their last six games in all and on road form alone, sit midway down the table.
Cortiba's defense has been excellent at home this season. They have the 5th best defense in the league at home on goals allowed and against Athletico Paranaense last week, a team sitting just three places back from Fluminense, Cortiba held them to just 3 shots total over the entire game, and just 2 from open play.
Coritiba have the ability to win this game outright, but their offense is severely lacking, so we're going with the Draw in this one as I see a low scoring game that Cortiba can grind out a result in.
Take the outright Draw between Fluminense and Coritiba in Brazil's Serie A for Wednesday.
PLAY: DRAW +213

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (693) Tulsa at (694) Houston
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: January 20, 2021 8PM EST
Play: Total Over 124.0 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (517) Memphis Grizzlies at (518) Portland Trail Blazers
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: January 20, 2021 10PM EST
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -1.5 (-110)
Our power numbers have this line closer to 4 and we like the value with this shorthanded Trailblazers team against the visiting Memphis Grizzlies tonight.
Take Portland minus the points for Wednesday.
PLAY: PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS -1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Ligs

Event: (517) Memphis Grizzlies at (518) Portland Trail Blazers
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: January 20, 2021 10PM EST
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -1.5 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Red Dog Sports

Jan 20 '21, 9:00 AM in 12m
Soccer | Atalanta vs Udinese
Play on: Atalanta -130 at pinnacle

Atalanta -130
Atalanta has scored 6 goals in their last two matches at Udinese.
Atalanta 2
Udinese 1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Jan 20 '21, 12:30 PM in 3h
Soccer | FC Koln vs Schalke 04
Play on: FC Koln +175 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on FC Koln +175

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Jan 20 '21, 1:00 PM in 4h
Soccer | Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Play on: Manchester City -1½ -117 at pinnacle

Manchester City Goal Line -1.5 -117 vs Aston Villa @ 1 ET - Aston Villa has performed surprisingly well this season and that has been particularly true on the road. However, Aston Villa has dealt with a slew of postponements due to covid-19 since the calendar turned the page to 2021. That said, their form is unlikely to be good here as training facilities were shut down for Aston Villa during this time as well. That is bad news as they now face a Manchester City club that has a history of dominating them particularly when on their home pitch. By the way, Manchester City has won 6 of 9 home matches this season and those victories have come by a wide margin plus they are off a 4-0 win over Crystal Palace over the weekend. This one should be a home blowout so I am grabbing the value on the goal line. Manchester City -1.5 goals -117

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 1	DD ($1 min.) / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Pick 4 (.50 min) (Races 1-2-3-4) / Superfecta (.10 min)
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 56 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 12:55
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. ALBERTA MOON is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALBERTA MOON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. MISS DARLENE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation o r an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	ALBERTA MOON	5/2	2/1
5	MISS DARLENE	7/2	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	MISS DARLENE	5	7/2	Front-runner	0	0	59.7	49.3	46.3
7	AVABELL	7	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	56.9	26.5	21.0
3	ANOTHERINTHEFIRE	3	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	55.9	29.4	24.4
6	ALBERTA MOON	6	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	71	52	61.6	49.8	46.8

Unknown Running Style: CHIEF FALCON (15/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Wallynette - Trainer: Westlye Kenneth], DOWNEASTER ALEXA (20/1) [Jockey: Singh Rohan R - Trainer: Ferrell Jory], FALYN'S GOLD RULER (8/1) [Jockey: Magnon Devin H - Trainer: Garcia J Luis],

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 1	W-P-S / Daily Double / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $8,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $15,500 • Post: 6:00P
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. SOLO TRY is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SACRED SHO GRL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AMAZING ANNA: Horse ha s run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SOLO TRY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	SACRED SHO GRL	3/1	5/2
5	AMAZING ANNA	2/1	6/1
3	SOLO TRY	12/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	AMAZING ANNA	6	2/1	Front-runner	58	58	86.5	47.8	40.8
7	SACRED SHO GRL	8	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	70	63	62.0	61.0	59.0
6	BRAZILIAN BAY	7	4/1	Stalker	59	59	60.0	43.4	33.9
2	LIL SURVIVOR	1	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	51	51	53.6	52.8	43.3
1	I'AM A UNICORN	2	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	48.4	44.0	33.5
3	SOLO TRY	3	12/1	Trailer	59	57	28.2	54.8	48.8
1A	LADY MISTRESS	4	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	58	44	48.4	45.6	34.1
4	LIL H	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	52	50	43.6	40.6	25.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 ROMARIO 12/1
# 8 DISCREET TUNE 7/2
# 7 JOYFUL SURPRISE 5/2

I think ROMARIO is a very strong pick particularly if the morning line of 12/1 holds. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 68 - of his last contest. Is a solid contender based on numbers posted as of late under today's conditions. Earnings per start in turf sprint races is sound for this equine. DISCREET TUNE - Lately Lopez has been scorching which may give the edge to this colt. Will most likely come out solid - I have liked the way this colt has moved swiftly to the lead recently. JOYFUL SURPRISE - The Equibase class figure of today's contest is much lower than his last affair. Has strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #9 - Post: 4:01pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $41,000 Class Rating: 101

Rating:

#7 ROYAL URN (ML=9/2)
#3 MOUNT TRAVERS (ML=3/1)
#1 I'M BUSY (ML=4/1)
#9 WENTZ (ML=12/1)
#10 SPIRIT SPECIAL (ML=10/1)


ROYAL URN - I like to bet on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a nice outing within the last month or so. Have to like the way Breen has raced this horse back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. This animal brings in a lot of dough per start. I believe he will add to the lifetime earnings in this event. MOUNT TRAVERS - Although I sometimes have doubts about a racer who was a beaten favorite in his last race, this horse got a solid speed figure and fits well here. You have to really like that recent race rating, 103, which is the best latest race rating of this bunch. I'M BUSY - This gelding was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. Jock and trainer do well when they combine forces. Silvera and Ness have been steady together. I have to believe that this contest's shorter distance should help this gelding. WENTZ - Based on this horse's recent efforts, he should benefit from this contest's shorter distance. Rodriguez was aboard this horse last time out and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 74 to 81 to 87 right in a row. SPIRIT SPECIAL - This gelding is very familiar with the winner's circle at Parx Racing. I expect a repeat trip in today's race. Finished outside the top 3 last out at Parx Racing, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 10/1 makes me think he's got a chance. Demasi gets a break on this thoroughbred carrying 7 lbs less than last out. This certainly could make the difference in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 FINAL SHOT (ML=7/2), #1A SHANGHAI SUPERFLY (ML=4/1), #6 WAR TOCSIN (ML=6/1),

FINAL SHOT - Hard to put your money on this early speedster. Too much speed in the race. SHANGHAI SUPERFLY - Improbable that the speed rating he recorded on Jan 8th will hold up in this race. WAR TOCSIN - Hard to put your dough on this speed merchant. Too much speed in the clash. When scrutinizing today's class rating, he will have to earn a better rating than last out to compete in this dirt sprint.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #9 WENTZ to win. Have to have odds of at least 15/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **