Tuesday 1/26/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 08:20 AM

Oskeim Sports

Event: (601) Tulsa at (602) Temple
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: January 26, 2021 1PM EST
Play: Temple +2.5 (-110)
My math model makes this game a toss-up so we are getting solid line value with the home underdog. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the previous five meetings in this series, while the underdog is 5-2 ATS. The Golden Hurricane are 3-4 SU and ATS on the road this season where they are averaging just 60.3 points per game on 41.6% shooting from the field and 25.0% from beyond the arc.
Overall, Tulsa is ranked 272nd in the nation in scoring offense (67.2), 159th in field goal percentage (44.58) and 302nd in three-point field goal percentage (29.08). The situation also favors Temple, who is playing the second of three consecutive home games whereas the Golden Hurricane are traveling for the fifth time in six games.
With Temple standing at 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games, grab the points with the Owls as Oskeim Sports' Free NCAA Basketball Winner for Tuesday, January 26!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 08:20 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: PSV Eindhoven at Emmen
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: January 26, 2021 2PM EST
Play: PSV Eindhoven -1.5 (-115)
Netherlands Eredivisie
This is a pretty simple play. The quick eye test shows PSV third in the table with a 12-4-2 record and +24 goal differential while Emmen is bottom of the table with an 0-6-12 record and -28 goal differential. Yes, Emmen is still winless as the league has passed the halfway point of the season.
Emmen did play to a 0-0 draw at Den Haag this past weekend which snapped a 3-game losing streak of losing by three goals or more, conceding four in each game. PSV meanwhile has covered this number in back to back league games and this is a must-win for them as they look to keep pace with top of the table Ajax who are four points ahead.
Behind the records, xG numbers show similar numbers as PSV has a +0.84 xG differential on the season while Emmen has a -0.88 xG. This game should be controlled by PSV with most of the chances coming from the road team. Now we just need the goals to come along with it.
TAKE PSV -1.5
Line Parameter: 4% to -1.75, pay up to -130 to get -1.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 08:21 AM

Las Vegas Cris

Event: (625) Kentucky at (626) Alabama
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: January 26, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Alabama -8.0 (-110)
Alabama -8 vs Kentucky. Kentucky is young, and having issues getting on track this year. Alabama has had some great wins and can pour it on. Both NCAA rating systems I use have this matchup a bargain, as this should be a double digit victory for Bama.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 10:58 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 3	Daily Double (Races 3-4) / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) Superfecta (.10 min.) / Daily Double (Races 3-4)($1 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 73 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 1:49P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. (PREFERENCE TO HORSES THAT HAVE NOT STARTED FOR LESS THAN $20,000 IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. RATHER PRECOCIOUS is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BLUEGRASS PHAROAH: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. RATH ER PRECOCIOUS: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SAMMY DANSEUR JR.: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good R ace within the last 30 days.
4	BLUEGRASS PHAROAH	7/5	7/2
5	RATHER PRECOCIOUS	7/2	7/2
1	SAMMY DANSEUR JR.	9/2	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	SAMMY DANSEUR JR.	1	9/2	Front-runner	73	64	77.4	52.9	47.9
4	BLUEGRASS PHAROAH	4	7/5	Front-runner	74	66	70.6	65.1	61.1
7	MARVINS GOLD	7	8/1	Front-runner	0	0	62.6	10.4	2.4
5	RATHER PRECOCIOUS	5	7/2	Trailer	68	73	46.5	69.2	66.2

Unknown Running Style: HEAROSEONEASTER (15/1) [Jockey: Mora Gerardo - Trainer: Morris Rowdy], G VICTORY (6/1) [Jockey: Pompell Thomas L - Trainer: Gelner Scott], R T'S DUDE (10/1) [Jockey: Castillo Alexander - Trainer: Sam Thomas W].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 02:24 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 1	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 56 • Purse: $3,300 • Post: 1:00P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DLJ RUSTY CARTEL: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FERDIES GAME CASH: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style d esignation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast.
10	DLJ RUSTY CARTEL	6/5	5/2
5	FERDIES GAME CASH	12/1	6/1
3	TF WHOLE LOTA CORONA	9/2	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	IMA BULLETPROOF JESS	1	4/1	Average	0	0	6.0	0.0	0.0
2	MITSUBISHI	2	20/1	Slow	0	0	9.7	0.0	0.0
4	SHEZA LOUISIANA DASH	4	12/1	Slow	0	0	7.7	0.0	0.0
5	FERDIES GAME CASH	5	12/1	Fast	64	48	2.0	0.0	0.0
6	SHES ONE FANCY PYC	6	8/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	MJ CORONA BLUE	8	15/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	9.9	0.0	0.0
9	BAG OF FANTASIES	9	30/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	DLJ RUSTY CARTEL	10	6/5	Average	71	58	5.7	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: TF WHOLE LOTA CORONA (9/2) [Jockey: Rodriguez Jose Ariel - Trainer: Martinez Luis], MCW IVORYS IMPRINT (15/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Jr Ricardo - Trainer: Alonzo Xavier].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 03:20 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,500 Class Rating: 46

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 BIG PERFORMER (ML=6/1)

BIG PERFORMER - Nice return on investment for this rider and conditioner duo. Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Surely on edge for a good one today. This gelding has 'tactical' speed, Hernandez will use this advantage by laying in perfect stalking position behind the early pace, and getting first run on the leaders. This mount ran out of the money at Mahoning Valley Race Cour last out on a sloppy track. He should improve right here in this race under better track conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MYMONSTERSFORREAL (ML=4/5), #2 FAMILY JET (ML=9/2), #8 ADMIRAL GLEN (ML=8/1),

MYMONSTERSFORREAL - The probable favorite is suspect here with the lack of morning drills. FAMILY JET - Last raced on January 12th at Mahoning Valley Race Cour, finishing seventh. Not likely to perk up off of that try today. Don't think this steed will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed fig was pedestrian when compared with today's class rating. Once you've got at least ten races at the venue and still have no victories, its tough to break through for a victory. ADMIRAL GLEN - This gelding is always hitting the board, but just doesn't finish first. Difficult to wager on him on the front end. The sixth place finish position in the last event was not the best.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #9 BIG PERFORMER on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 03:20 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 26 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 DILLY DILLY PHILLY 7/2

# 1 KARABESSA 8/1

# 3 JUSTIN TIME 10/1

My choice for this event is DILLY DILLY PHILLY. Trainers don't bring ponies back this soon just for exercise. Looks competitive for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races recently. Displays the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 75 speed figure which is one of the best in this group of animals. KARABESSA - Should come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved promptly to the lead recently. Looks very good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races recently. JUSTIN TIME - Could provide positive returns based on quite good recent Speed Figures with an average of 68. Has a strong shot in this event if you like back class.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 03:21 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #6 - Post: 2:50pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,300 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 SPICY SOMMELIER (ML=6/1)

SPICY SOMMELIER - North adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 METAROSE (ML=4/1), #4 SHE'LL PARK (ML=5/1), #2 TUFFENOUGHTOSTART (ML=5/1),

METAROSE - No picnic to wager on any thoroughbred in a short distance clash at 4/1 when she hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last couple of months. Showed very little in the last event. Really don't expect improvement today. Garnered a quite unimpressive speed fig last out in a $50,000 Maiden Claiming race on November 7th. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that figure. SHE'LL PARK - Finished seventh last time. Would have to get better to finish in the money in today's event. In any race of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been looking good in short distance contests lately. This runner ran a most unsatisfactory speed rating in the last race. She shouldn't run much better and will likely get beat in today's race running that fig. TUFFENOUGHTOSTART - The Brain always warns me to stay away from thoroughbreds in short distance affairs that haven't finished in the money in sprint contests lately. Don't feel this horse will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed figure was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SPICY SOMMELIER - When a race horse takes such a big drop in the class figure department, I always have a look-see. I like what I see with this one and am betting on her.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 SPICY SOMMELIER is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [5,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
1 with [5,9] with [5,7,8,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
1 with [5,8,9] with [2,5,7,8,9] with [2,5,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 03:21 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13300 Class Rating: 59

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 8 JOES A ROCKIN 3/1

# 5 TAPAWAY 8/5

# 7 BODYGUARD 5/2

I've got to go with JOES A ROCKIN. This gelding gets a boost with Haldar in the saddle. Must be given a chance given the class of races run as of late. TAPAWAY - This gelding with Pilares in the saddle makes him a key contender. Win percentage one of the best in this field. BODYGUARD - Salazarbecerra should be able to get this gelding to break out quickly in this competition. This gelding is coming right back to race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 03:21 PM

Monday Myths: Are Classier Races More Trustworthy?

January 25, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Welcome to a new handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data.

Assumption:

The classier the horse and races you handicap, the more trustworthy the results will be.

Background:

You’ll often hear horseplayers lament that they just can’t get a grip on cheaper claiming races, or that maiden races are crapshoots. In turn, they claim to embrace the classier races and horses because they are more confident handicapping them due to their trustworthiness. The general consensus would argue this to be true.

Data Points:

I put the database to the test, studying races at each class level and their results, going back the past 5 years to Jan. 25, 2016. Each race class was judged by the average price of the winner and the percentage of winning favorites. Because field size can be a major influence on price, I also looked at each race class for small fields (6 starters) and large fields (10 starters) so the class comparison could be more direct.

Overall Findings:

Maiden Claiming races have average winning odds of 4.91-1 and favorites win 37.44 percent.
Maiden Special Weight races have average winning odds of 4.51-1 and favorites win 38.38 percent.
Claiming races have average winning odds of 4.45-1 and favorites win 37.60 percent.
Allowance races have average winning odds of 4.29-1 and favorites win 36.20 percent.
Listed Stakes races have average winning odds of 4.98-1 and favorites win 40.51 percent.
Graded Stakes races have average winning odds of 5.72-1 and favorites win 39.04 percent.

Small-Field Maiden Claiming races have average winning odds of 3.63-1 and favorites win 42.49 percent.
Small-Field Maiden Special Weight races have average winning odds of 3.26-1 and favorites win 43.29 percent.
Small-Field Claiming races have average winning odds of 3.54-1 and favorites win 39.75 percent.
Small-Field Allowance races have average winning odds of 3.31-1 and favorites win 40.46 percent.
Small-Field Listed Stakes races have average winning odds of 3.58-1 and favorites win 45.57 percent.
Small-Field Graded Stakes races have average winning odds of 3.82-1 and favorites win 45.41 percent.

Large-Field Maiden Claiming races have average winning odds of 6.66-1 and favorites win 35.63 percent.
Large-Field Maiden Special Weight races have average winning odds of 6.61 and favorites win 34.27 percent.
Large-Field Claiming races have average winning odds of 6.52-1 and favorites win 32.76 percent.
Large-Field Allowance races have average winning odds of 6.68-1 and favorites win 29.52 percent.
Large-Field Listed Stakes races have average winning odds of 6.36-1 and favorites win 34.90 percent.
Large-Field Graded Stakes races have average winning odds of 6.72-1 and favorites win 28.94 percent.

Overall Findings Verdict:

The original hypothesis that classier horses are more reliable to handicap is shown to be clearly false. The highest level of racing, graded stakes, is the most volatile class of all. Favorites perform well there, but the average winners’ odds are significantly highest – overall, in small fields and in large fields. The graded stakes are more feast or famine for bettors. Directly comparing the maidens, the maiden claimers run slightly more unpredictable than maiden special weights, but it’s negligible if not insignificant. We know the cheaper races typically have larger field sizes, so it’s noteworthy to see the maiden claimers and claiming races in the large-field size samples perform at levels every bit as reliable as their classier counterparts.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, you could test turf vs. dirt, sprints vs. routes or look into a specific track you follow. One more detailed query I ran was to look at Santa Anita, where the average winners’ odds for each class were: maiden claiming (4.69-1), maiden special weight (5.24-1), claiming (4.45-1), allowance (5.03-1), listed stakes (5.01-1), graded stakes (4.80-1) – which actually turned out lowest of all in claiming races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 03:22 PM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis

January 26, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The feature at Pompano Park rolls in Race 7, a fillies and mares Open Handicap with an $11,500 purse. The 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 6. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Wally Hennessey was off his drives on Monday and that will be the case for tonight as well. That could make things interesting as Wally gets a ton of respect and can squeeze the last ounce of effort out of his mounts.

Last night, Mike Simons and David Miller led the drivers with three trips to the winner's circle. Jack Huff was the top conditioner with three wins.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

3-Dads Filly (4-1)-Gets some needed class relief and this will be the 2nd time Miller will be in the bike. Won at this level in
November as well as December and should be a player versus this crew.
5-JK Kissentell (4-1)-Five-year-old mare steps up but comes off her best effort in months and will look for upswing to continue. This is a suspect group, so should be forwardly placed and with a good trip could cash the top check.
6-American Arrow (5-1)-Followed #5 last week and fell short of winning by a neck, which was the best effort in a while. Will this mare improve off that race? Worth a swing at the morning line price and usual pilot returns tonight.

Race 7

4-Crisp Mane (2-1)-Beat straight Open company in last, Miller should blast out and look for a seat near the top of the stack. This gal is consistent and taking another picture would not be a surprise.
6-She'sgotitgoingon (5-1)-Comes off an even effort last week but was off since 12-29 and then was scratched sick. Posted a win at this class on 12-29 and could be sitting on a big try at a square price.
8-Lucky Artist A (6-1) -Just missed in 1st start at the Pomp but was off since 1-2 and was driven conservatively. The start will be key as others will be leaving but this mare has some gate speed. Will look for a better price and use the Artist but leave the 2nd program chalk #7 off the ticket.

Race 8

4-Don't Chip Me (7/2) -Just missed last week after starting from the rail. Got on the engine to and was nipped by a neck. Back in at the same class and last try was after a sick scratch. Is only 1 for the last 23 but this is 2nd time Lasix and last effort was much better so will use right back.
5-Mach Me Onemore (5/2)-Hasn't taken a picture in 7 tries at the Pomp but comes off 2 good efforts at this class. Not sure who will get the drive as Hennessey is off but can't leave out. Gets a much better post, started in the 2nd tier in last and best to respect.

Race 9

1-Sue's Night Out (5-1)-Might make the most of starting inside the main players. Team Miller could have this veteran mare sitting on a big try. Missed a week before last start, did put in a flat line and should offer a fair price.
6-Happy Heart (8/5)-The Beckwith barn has two entries in here (6-8) and this was Hennessey's choice. Was edged out by #8 in last, new pilot should be out and rolling as soon as the wings open. Looks like a major player.

0.50 Pick 4

3,5,6/4,6,8/4,5/1,6
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 03:22 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Delta Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 Wicked Empire He'll need something better than he has shown to date, but those Remington spots stack up favorably to what he's going to meet here, and the price should be right to see if he can wake up with the locals.
#1 Sailing Jett He's the one to beat, but he's tough to trust at a short kind of number as he makes his 12th lifetime start here. He might get hassled from the inside, leaving him vulnerable late.
#6 Hard Twist Solid effort for twice this price last time out, and the addition of blinkers might be all it takes to get him over the top with these.
Race Summary Wicked Empire owns a little bit of pace that he can put to use while stretching out, and he draws outside of most of the other forward players, giving his rider a few options out of the gate.

Delta Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Sammy Danseur Jr. Finished well in front of the 7/5 ML favorite when they met last time out, and this guy should be able to work out a good trip toward the top from the fence.
#4 Bluegrass Pharoah He has come up well short in fading efforts at even money and 3/5 in his two local tries, so he is capable of winning this, but he can do it without me at another short price.
#5 Rather Precocious Showed some ability with a good 5f run in the debut last month, and he has come back with a couple of snappy works, including a bullet drill here six days ago.
Race Summary Sammy Danseur Jr. has a bit of positional pace to use from the inside here, and his running lines seem just as threatening, if not more, than the ML chalk.

Delta Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#10 Smiling Song Reliable finisher has landed a trio of runner-up shares in his three starts with winners, and he might offer a better price than he has in recent starts.
#6 Alluring Actor Stepped up nicely last time out to miss by a neck with similar, and he's likely to get another perfect, pace pressing trip with these.
#8 Yes Bab He has turned in a couple of solid tries at this level after graduating for a $12,500 tag, but he still seems more likely to come alive late for a piece than to land this one.
Race Summary Smiling Song has been consistent, and there might be enough in here to give us a better number than the 9/5 he offered last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 03:22 PM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Dover Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 JEANSNJELLYBEANS Front-end tactics backfired, meets many of same rivals.
#1 GOLDEN THUNDER Has speed and the rail and double-digit morning-line odds.
#7 OK LETS ROCKNROLL Rallied for third in second start back, moves inside out.
Race Summary Jeansnjellybeans raced against her normal style and tired when put on the lead last week. She sustained a first-over rally to miss in a photo finish the week prior. Give her a chance to bounce back in a field that lacks pace. Play 6-1, 6-5 and 6-7 exactas.

Yonkers - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 SHAKE A LEG Out-dueled by fave as top pair separated from field.
#8 MUFASA AS Shuffled out of contention in third quarter, use in all gimmicks.
#4 BAZILLIONAIRE Trotted evenly at this level, Bartlett tries his hand.
Race Summary Shake A Leg, an anxious third as the pace slowed in the second quarter, brushed to command midway on the backstretch and got caught late by the favorite. Play 3-4 and 3-8 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#9 OFF ROAD HANOVER Road trouble at key juncture, tough post to contend with tonight.
#2 PEARLS GIRL Rallied for 32-1 shocker two back, broke stride in follow-up, Stahl sticks.
#3 ANDOVER THE HALO Parked first-over through final half, ran second after 1-to-9 fave broke stride.
Race Summary Off Road Hanover sat a pocket trip but was bothered by an erratic pace setter on the final turn. He shot the rail to finish second, now starts from the second tier. Play a 2-3-9 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-26-2021, 03:23 PM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 Giant Boo Boo Was third in a three-horse photo and was moving well at the end; can be more of a factor with an inside post this time.
#1 Gehrig Rallied well and was up in time right at the wire last out and the change to a come-from-behind strategy looks good on him.
#3 D'money Honey Completes the three horses that were in the trifecta last time; he ran on well for second and was right there with the top two choices here.
Race Summary Giant Boo Boo was outside last time and should get a more favorable ground-saving trip.

Mahoning Valley - Race #4
Picks Notes
#7 Pulpit's Purrfect Just missed last out in the slop and has a three wins and three seconds in her last seven; she can handle the step up in class.
#6 Arcelor Held on for second after losing the lead in the stretch last time; competitive at this level.
#4 Spice It Up Won two of her last three against allowance company and comes out for a claiming price here; finished with interest in her last four.
Race Summary Pulpit's Purrfect is 5 of 13, and on the rare occasion when she runs a bad one, she still gets a check; she's in good form and was claimed by the Jones stable. Her best will make her very tough here.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 This Man Can Has exceptional speed and is due to stay; last won in September and has a second in three starts since.
#3 Adios Judith Has enough speed to be in good position and drops in class; was an easy winner here two races back.
#5 Dad's Yankees Comes in from Gulfstream, where he most recently ran on turf or on a sloppy track; rapid and would be no surprise.
Race Summary This Man Can is fast enough to battle with these early and could benefit from being inside.