Service Plays Super Bowl Sunday 2/7/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bam Bam Sports

10* TB Bucs +3

[citybeat]

PREZ

17-6 NFL Run: 5% Main Event & 10Props
Game: (101) Kansas City Chiefs at (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Feb 7 2021 6:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -3.0 (-120)

KC likes to give teams a fighting chance. They let Buffalo go up 9-0 to start the game and everyone remembers last year’s playoff run, with KC playing from behind in every game and by double digits. What this says to me is KC is bored and can beat any team by any score on any day they want. Sure, they lose a few games here and there, but it has to be hard to get up for every single game. We know for sure they will get up for the Superbowl. Okay up until the Buffalo game, KC hadn’t covered the line in 9 straight games. So, what: none of these lines were -3 and none of them were in a game that was for all the marbles. This team has shown over and over again, when they need D stops, they get it, when they need to score, they score. I have never seen a team like this in my betting life. They simply can do whatever they want, whenever they want to whoever they want.

Now they have a Brady led TB team and well there was a time, when I never bet against TB12, but this is not one of them. Sure, they are rolling right now and over the last 6-7 games, their Offense has come alive. Everyone is talking about TB’s D as being really good. Blah Blah Blah – this team is #1 against the rush in the league, but #21 against the pass. Who do you think they are playing: A Jerome Bettis lead Stealer team that sets everything up from the run. NOPE – they are playing the best passing team in history of football. People are talking about the TB pass rush – oh please let them rush Mahomes and see what happens. If TB’s pass rush was so good, then why are they 21st in the league against the pass. Sure, they are a good D, but they are not the 85 Bears. They are just a decent all-round defense in a year where defense has become the forgotten word.

KC is never -3. Okay almost never. They were -3 vs the Bills and covered that and then -2.5 against the Saints 5 games ago and covered that. The bottom line for me, is if I can get KC at a FG or less, I would likely take them against the Pro Bowl team. I know I sound like a KC fanatic, but I am not. I don’t care who wins or loses football games. I am not a fan of any NFL team. All I care about is who covers and KC will cover 3 against anyone. At this moment in time, KC has better everything on offense and are impossible to cover. Did you know that KC’s pass D is better than TB’s by 10 yard a game and they are basically tied for points allowed. I think KC’s defense doesn’t get the credit it deserves and keep in mind, they are on the field a lot, given how quick KC can score and how slow other teams try play against KC.

So we are getting 2 teams with very similar Defenses and both with really good offenses. I am going to take the Baby Goat as the next 15 years will be about him and not about TB12. The torch will literally get passed on Sunday and I think KC wins this game easy. I would have no issue if you bet this game on the Alternate line of -9.5 +175 if you like. I don’t see this game coming down to the last drive. I see a bored eKC team finally putting all the pieces together and blowing out the TB Bucs.

Play is good to -4

[dawggy]

OSKEIM

Game: (101) Kansas City Chiefs at (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time: Feb 7 2021 6:30 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 (+100)

Tampa Bay is ranked No. 1 in the NFL in Football Outsiders ("FO") weighted and total DVOA following its triumph over Green Bay in the NFC Championship game. The Buccaneers' win over Green Bay at Lambeau Field is made more compelling by the fact that the Packers rank No. 2 in the league in FO's weighted and total DVOA. Remember Tampa Bay's convincing double-digit win over New Orleans in the Divisional Round of the playoffs? The Saints are second in the league in FO's total DVOA after excluding Week 17 (several starters did not play).

Tampa Bay's journey to the Super Bowl required victories over two of the best teams in the NFL (Saints, Packers). Consistency has defined Tampa Bay's success this season as the Buccaneers have ranked in the top three of FO's DVOA since Week 4 of the regular season. In contrast, Kansas City ranks 5th in both weighted and total DVOA despite its blowout win over the Bills in the AFC Championship game.

Which team is more reliable in protecting a fourth quarter lead? The Chiefs' DVOA dropped substantially this season when defending a late lead of more than a touchdown, whereas Tampa Bay's DVOA increased significantly with a lead of 9-plus points in the fourth quarter.

Tampa Bay Offense Up 9+ in Q4: 25.0% (12th)
Tampa Bay Defense up 9+ in Q4: -57.0% (2nd)
Additional metrics further demonstrate that Tampa Bay is the better team in this game. The Buccaneers' have the better red zone offense (5th vs. 10th), red zone defense (19th vs. 32nd), short yardage rushing offense (1st vs. 32nd) and net penalty yards (+17 YPG vs. -11.8 YPG). Tampa Bay limited six opponents to season-low or second-low yardage this season; the Chiefs limited just two opponents to the same.

Both teams faced six common opponents (and sites) this season: Tampa Bay went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS (+428 net yards) whereas the Chiefs went 5-1 SU and 1-4-1 ATS (-53 net yards). With respect to special teams, Tampa Bay placekicker Ryan Succop is a perfect 12-for-12 on postseason field goals and 17-of-18 on extra points. Chiefs' kicker Harrison Butker is 8-for-10 on field goals but 32-of-34 on extra points.

Kansas City starting left tackle Eric Fisher sustained an Achilles injury in the AFC Championship game and is unlikely to play on Sunday. Fisher's absence is significant in that he had played in 95% of snaps on the season and was called for just one holding across seventeen-plus games. Fisher is worth 0.14 points to the point spread according to my projections, but that value does not take into account the fact that starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has been on injured reserve since Week 11 with a back injury.

Tampa Bay owns the No. 6 defensive pressure rate in the league behind one of the most talented defensive lines in Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea, Jason Pierre-Paul and William Gholston. Tampa Bay starting linebacker Shaq Barrett accounted for three of the team's five sacks on Aaron Rodgers in the NFC Championship game and will feast on a Kansas City offensive line that ranks 23rd in pressure rate allowed.

Kansas City finished 8-10 ATS this season, becoming just the fifth team to reach the Super Bowl with a losing against-the-spread record. The Chiefs have consistently underperformed relative to the betting market as they are a money-burning 2-8 ATS in their last ten games. Pundits will point to the fact that Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is 17-11 ATS since 2003 with extra time to prepare. However, Reid is a more modest 5-5 ATS with Kansas City when getting at least thirteen days between games.

Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady has covered all five games with at least thirteen days between games, including the Week 14 game this season. Brady is 36-23 SU and 41-17-1 ATS as an underdog in his NFL career and has won six of his 9 Super Bowl appearances. The only other time Brady was installed as a Super Bowl underdog was in his first career appearance, a game in which he led the Patriots to an upset win over the Rams. Brady is 145-28 SU and 100-65-8 ATS at home in his career, including 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog.

Teams with the lower win percentage (Tampa Bay) are 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS in the last fourteen Super Bowls. The team that is the higher playoff seed is just 2-14-2 ATS in the previous 24 Super Bowls. Super Bowl favorites are 25-25-3 ATS overall (1982 game was a pick-em), while underdogs are 13-6 ATS in the past 19 Super Bowls, including 9-4 ATS in the last thirteen.
Finally, Tampa Bay has covered each of the last three meetings with the Chiefs, including the Week 12 meeting this season. Grab the points with the Buccaneers and invest with confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Kc/tb over 56

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Feinberg

KC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Warren Sharp

In addition to:
Leonard Fournette over 3.5 receptions -120 (0.75 units)
Longshot: Ronald Jones most rushing yards +275 (0.5 units)
Patrick Mahomes over 18.5 rushing yards -115 (0.6 units)
Under 10.5 total accepted penalties +100 (0.5 units)
Longshot: Cameron Brate to score 1st TD for Tampa +1400 (0.1 units) and any time TD +333 (0.2 units)
Second half + OT more points than first half -112 (0.5 units)**
**note: betting this in lieu of betting the first half under 27.5, which is what my model leans towards
Tampa Bay 3rd down conversions over 5.5 +125 (0.5 units)
Will Kansas City convert a 4th down YES -135 (0.4 units)
Will Tampa Bay convert a 4th down YES -135 (0.4 units)
Longshot: Will there be a missed extra point YES +210 (0.2 units)
Patrick Mahomes over 40.5 pass att (-125) (0.75 units)
Darrell Williams rushing yards Under 30.5 -125 (0.5 units)
Rob Gronkowski longest catch over 15.5 yards -112 (0.75 units)
Rob Gronkowski receiving yards over 28.5 -115 (0.2 units)
Mecole Hardman longest catch over 15.5 -120 (0.5 units)
Add:
If its still up at your book: National Anthem length over 120.5 seconds -105 (0.5 units)
___
Welcome to the Super Bowl LV Props Package! Even with 10 full days until kickoff, props are now up at many spots. We will be digging into these throughout these next 10 days, but we do have one longshot TD prop we want to share today. Know that we will have action rolling out in a gradual basis, starting today, thru Super Bowl Sunday!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL ML - Sunday, Feb 7 2021 6:30PM
ML 101 KAN (-165) Pinnacle vs 102 TAM double-dime bet

Analysis: I'll likely be sending a prop update out every day or two. If some of my personal props become more widely available I might add them into the official prop section. A lot of Vegas books will be putting up props tonight and I assume a lot of locals will follow.




Official Props:
Chiefs Punts U3.5 -150 (DK)
Tyreek Hill O87.5 rec yds -115 (MGM)
Travis Kelce O94.5 Rec Yds -125 (DK)
YES Brady INT -130 (South Point)
Fournette>Williams rush yds -135 (Fox Bet)
Last play of game YES QB run -170 (Fanduel/WHill)
Byron Pringle U1.5 Receptions +105 (WHill)
U10.5 Penalties +100 (WHill/BET365)
Cameron Brate U3.5 Receptions -130 (PB/DK)




Props I bet (if you have a similar line, fire)


U2.5 Players with a pass attempt -165
U2.5 Players complete a pass -260
Shortest TD U1.5 -140
Last play of the game QB kneel -135
No score first 5 min -135
KC scores more points in 2H/OT versus 1H -105
Robinson U2.5 -240
Pringle U18.5 -110
White NO sack -120
Suh NO sack -165
Jones NO sack -125
Clark NO sack -140
Bucs punt first -120
Bucs +10.5 rush yds VS KC -110
Opening kickoff touchback -220
Last play of 1H NO QB run -200
CEH U60.5 toal yds -110
Chiefs shortest punt O32.5 -130
Bucs shortest punt O32.5 -130
CEH YES TD +220
Mahomes>Brady pass yds -150
O7.5 Players with a rush attempt -120
Darrell Williams U7.5 1Q Rush Yds -125
Mathiue No INT -300
Tampa to receive ball first -110
O3.5 Sacks -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sharp SB Props

Leonard Fournette over 3.5 receptions -120
Ronald Jones most rushing yards +275
Patrick Mahomes over 18.5 rushing yards -115
Under 10.5 total accepted penalties +100
Longshot: Cameron Brate to score 1st TD for Tampa +1400 and any time TD +333
Second half + OT more points than first half -112
Tampa Bay 3rd down conversions over 5.5 +125
Will Kansas City convert a 4th down YES -135
Will Tampa Bay convert a 4th down YES -135
Longshot: Will there be a missed extra point YES +210 m
Patrick Mahomes over 40.5 pass att (-125)
Darrell Williams rushing yards Under 30.5 -125
Rob Gronkowski longest catch over 15.5 yards -112
Rob Gronkowski receiving yards over 28.5 -115
Mecole Hardman longest catch over 15.5 -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lee sterling

Super Bowl Take It To The Bank Total
Under 56

Super Bowl Back Up The Truck Release
Tampa bay

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

Chiefs -2.5 H1 (7U)
Chiefs Margin of Victory 17 to 20 +1400 (2U)
Mahomes O2.5 TD Passes -140 (2U)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

Bucs +3 (5U)
Bucs U56 (2U)
Hill O6.5 Receptions -135 (2U)
Shortest TD U1.5 yards -170 (2U)
Roughing the Passer YES EV (2U)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

7 Unit Play. Take #102 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 over Kansas City Chiefs (6:30p.m., Sunday, February 7 CBS) SUPER BOWL 55.

Just feel Tampa Bay is the better all-around team and Tom Brady seems to be the destined winner of this game. Tampa Bay has won three straight road games to get to this point of being the first team ever to host the Super Bowl in their own stadium. Kansas City is loaded on offense, but they have offensive line injuries, and the Buccaneers have a pass rush capable of putting pressure on QB Mahomes for the entire 60-minute game. Kansas City has been winning games of late, but they have not been covering the spread, and I just do not see them being able to move the football at will against this Tampa Bay defense.
These two teams met earlier this season, and Kansas City jumped out big before Tampa Bay rallied, and had they gotten a stop might have been able to win that game. Tampa Bay has gotten revenge on two teams in the playoffs, and I expect them to get revenge on Kansas City as well. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between Tampa Bay and Kansas City. The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Tampa wins this game straight-up and gives Brady his 7th Super Bowl.

Props- All of these props come from William Hill. If you cannot play one of them, just pass on playing props.

1 Unit Play. What will Happen first, a sack or a touchdown. Play a Sack (+110) will happen first. This bet will win if a sack by either team happens before a touchdown in scored.
1 Unit Play. Will there be 3 unanswered scores in the game. Bet Yes (-180). This bet will win if either team has three scores in a row.

1 Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5 Alternate Pointspread) +235 over Kansas City Chiefs

2 Unit Play. Take New York Knicks Points (-2.5) -110 over Travis Kelce Receiving Yards. We are playing that the New York Knicks (-2.5) will score more points in their game Sunday against the Miami Heat than Travis Kelce's total receiving yards. Kelce has gone over 100 yards receiving in both playoff games but before that he had went 4 straight games with 90 receiving yards or less. The Knicks are averaging over 102 points per game and I expect them to score close to 110 on Sunday.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez props :

1- kelce 1st td scorer, kelce to score 2tds, fournette to score 2tds, gronk over 28.5 rec yds, evans to score, evans to score 2tds.

2- Mahomes over 2.5 pass tds, Brady over 2.5 pass tds, Brady over 301 pass tds, 3.5 sacks over, punts under 6.5, Scotty Miller over 15.5 rec yds, kc to win both halves, hill longest catch over 28.5 yds

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn


5% SUPER SUNDAY BIG TICKET

Chiefs -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Ma- 47-45-3 record


Chiefs