Thursday 2/4/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Waste Management Open Outright Winner
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: February 4, 2021 11AM EST
Play: Will Zalatoris to Win Waste Management Open (+5000)
Waste Management Open
Outright Winner
For an Outright play this week I’m going to jump on young Will Zalatoris. I cashed a +600 Top 10 ticket on him last week and it’s only a matter of time before he gets his first PGA Tour win which I firmly believe will be sooner rather than later and I’d like to get a good number on him when he does before it goes away.
He ranks 5th on Tour in Total Strokes Gained this year, 4th Tee to green, 5th in Approach, 9th in driving distance and 7th in scoring average. Like I said, it’s only a matter of time.
Another guy I like who is just not getting enough respect is Ryan Palmer. He has three Top 5 finishes in his last four starts. Unlike Zalatoris, he is a regular here at this event and has that experience with him and has finished as high as T2 here before.
Both guys can be had at 50/1 to win this week and 5/1 for a Top 10 finish.
For daily fantasy players, Zalatoris is available for $9,000 while Palmer can be had for $9,200 and both are going to be in my lineups this week.
TAKE WILL ZALATORIS +5000
TAKE RYAN PALMER +5000

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Bubba Watson vs Brooks Koepka
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: February 4, 2021 11AM EST
Play: Bubba Watson (-120)
Waste Management Open
Tournament Matchup
It’s not secret Koepka is struggling right now. He has missed the cut each of the last two weeks which dating back to before the holiday break, make three straight missed cuts for him. He ranks 192nd in Greens in Reg, 201st in Driving accuracy and 115th in Strokes Gained Approach. He simply isn’t hitting the ball well. Koepka put a new set of irons in play over the holiday break and it is clearly not working, well not yet anyway. New equipment takes a little while to get adjusted to and while it’s easy to blame that, Koepka made the switch because he has been struggling for quite some time now. Last season, he missed five cuts and had just two Top 10’s in 13 starts.
Of course he did win this event in 2015, but that was a long time ago.
Bubba has both current form in great course history going for him this week. He did miss the cut last week at the Farmers but also had two Top 10’s in his other four starts this year and ranks in the Top 10 in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Approach and Tee to Green. Plus, he absolutely loves this track. In 14 starts here, he has missed the cut just twice with nine Top 25’s, including six Top 10’s. He hasn’t won yet but has two runner-ups and finished T3 here last year and T4 the year before that.
A year ago Koepka would have been a big favorite over Bubba, in the -150 to -175 range, but now Bubba is the slight favorite and for good reason. Ride the lefty to a strong week at Waste Management.
TAKE BUBBA WATSON OVER BROOKS KOEPKA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (725) Tennessee State at (726) SIU Edwardsville
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 4, 2021 2PM EST
Play: Total Under 135.0 (-110)
Brandon is the #3 Wager Talk capper in 2021 (+23 units). Get a full week of Brandon's plays for only $49 by using the code ASIA49 at checkout for a limited time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

Event: (206617) Moreirense at (206618) Famalicao
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: February 4, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Famalicao +108
New coach Vasco Seabra had success with Moreirense upon taking over last month but his team comes off a 4-0 loss to Sporting Braga to open thte week, surrendering three goals inside the first hour of play. This is a short turnaround to face a team that also recently made a coaching change of its own in hiring Jorge Silas on Feb. 1 to try and get back on track after a dreadful start. Bulgarian international Bozhidar Kraev and Brazil's Jhonata Robert should be able to produce in helping the Vila Nova pick up all three points at home in making for a successful debut for the newly-hired Silas at the helm of la Vila Nova. Ride Famalicao on the 3-way money line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Feb 04 '21, 9:20 AM in 18m
PGA | Will Zalatoris vs Russell Henley
Play on: Will Zalatoris -120 at Mirage

1* Free Sharp Play on Will Zalatoris -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Feb 04 '21, 2:00 PM in 4h
Soccer | Brondby IF vs Nordsjaelland
Play on: Brondby IF +120 at Bodog

1* Free Pick on Brondby IF +120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Feb 04 '21, 3:00 PM in 5h
Soccer | Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
Play on: UNDER 2½ -115

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Free Pick UNDER 2.5 goals in Tottenham vs Chelsea @ 3 ET - Goals should be tough to come by in this one. Chelsea has yet to concede a goal in two matches since the managerial change. Tottenham has struggled badly without Harry Kane since he got hurt in the Liverpool match. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled 2 or less goals including a scoreless draw at Chelsea in late November. Overall, Chelsea's last 4 fixtures in premier league action have seen a total of just 5 goals scored - that is 1.25 goals per match. Don't be surprised if this one ends up 1-0 or, at most, two goals scored. Free Pick UNDER 2.5 goals in Tottenham

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park

Turfway Park - Race 3	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / 20 cent Single 6 Jackpot (Races 3-4-5-6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $7,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Age 3 • CR: 58 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 7:16P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MISSISSIPPI MIST: A first time starter with a trainer that has a win percentage with firs t time starters of at least 25 (minimum 10 starts). Horse is a first time starter and its sire's win percentage with first timers is at least 18 (minimum of 50 starts). FORTY PIECES: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DOLLY MINGUN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GOLD FOR KITTEN: A first time starter with a trainer that has a win percentage with first time starters of at least 25 (minimum 10 starts). Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
4	MISSISSIPPI MIST	4/1	4/1
14	FORTY PIECES	7/2	6/1
10	DOLLY MINGUN	5/1	7/1
12	GOLD FOR KITTEN	4/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	DIMPLES OF VENUS	9	30/1	Front-runner	0	0	68.3	24.6	12.6
14	FORTY PIECES	14	7/2	Front-runner	62	51	61.0	51.9	47.4
1	MARGARET DRIVE	1	5/1	Stalker	51	50	57.5	38.7	30.7
7	ABHAILE	7	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	51.2	18.0	8.0
10	DOLLY MINGUN	10	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	55	45.5	52.1	45.1
6	RACE SMART	6	12/1	Trailer	0	0	5.8	35.6	27.6
13	MARIAH'S GIRL	13	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	50	38	47.2	36.0	28.0
2	EMMYRATES	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	51.6	17.8	3.8

Unknown Running Style: NEXT TIME YOU WIN (7/2) [Jockey: Bejarano Rafael - Trainer: Cox Brad H], MISSISSIPPI MIST (4/1) [Jockey: Parker Deshawn L - Trainer: Ward Wesley A], SILK SPECTRE (20/1) [Jockey: Esquivel Emmanuel - Trainer: Contreras Cipriano],

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 1	Exacta / Daily Double 1-2
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 80 • Purse: $15,200 • Post: 2:45P
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 19, 2021 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 4, 2021 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 4, 2020 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. IMNOGOOD is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * IMNOGOOD: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. ALWAY'S COMERIO: Ho rse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	IMNOGOOD	3/5	8/5
2	ALWAY'S COMERIO	2/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	IMNOGOOD	1	3/5	Front-runner	74	82	73.5	73.5	69.0
4	LADY AKIRAH	4	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	57	55	56.0	56.0	49.0
2	ALWAY'S COMERIO	2	2/1	Stalker	75	77	72.8	72.8	69.3
3	LOVELY DANA	3	5/1	Trailer	73	72	67.6	67.6	63.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Golden Gate Fields - Race #7 - Post: 4:00pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#6 OCEAN FURY (ML=15/1)
#4 UPO (ML=2/1)
#2 RESPECT THE HUSTLE (ML=6/1)


OCEAN FURY - A wise man taught me to bet on the lone speed horse. Take a look at this thoroughbred. Coming off a fourth place finish at Santa Anita, some may skip this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has decent morning line odds today. UPO - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a good race on January 18th. A repeat of that latest race on January 18th where he notched a speed figure of 98 looks good enough to score in this affair. RESPECT THE HUSTLE - This animal earns a lot of cash per race. Number one in this contest. Went a route in a $25,000 Claiming race at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbre in the last race from an outside draw. Moving to the inside at a similar distance should benefit this gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SOBERANO (FR) (ML=5/2), #1 HARVEST A STORM (ML=3/1), #3 TERRYS TOM CAT (ML=8/1),

SOBERANO (FR) - Finished sixth on Jan 18th after the extended vacation. Doubtful if there will be any improvement in this event. Not probable that the speed fig he garnered on January 18th will hold up in this affair. HARVEST A STORM - The finish position of eighth in the last affair shows me that this animal may be getting out of condition. Don't think this racer will do much running in today's race. That last speed rating was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's class rating. TERRYS TOM CAT - Last raced on January 18th at Golden Gate Fields, finishing fourth. Unlikely to improve off of that performance in today's race. Hard to wager on a questionable contender that lays up for a long time then doesn't finish in the money off the very long layoff. Based on the pace scenario in this race, this horse doesn't fit in here. With a single front-runner and this animal having to race from behind, he sure has a tough assignment.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #6 OCEAN FURY on the win end if we get at least 9/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Allowance - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, WAIVER CLAIMING OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 4 ALLOWED 4 LBS. W V A

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 COMMAND THE CAT 2/1
# 5 YOU GO BOY 7/2
# 1 TAPTAPTAP 6/1

COMMAND THE CAT looks to be a formidable contender. Trainer has very strong win rate (21 percent) at this distance and surface. Ran a strong last race. Overall, this conditioner has been profitable at this distance/surface. YOU GO BOY - Has formidable speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this race. Could beat this group given the 78 Equibase speed fig earned in his last outing. TAPTAPTAP - Has been racing very well and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Hurley has a very solid winning percentage with horses travelling in dirt sprint races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Fair Grounds

02/04/21, FG, Race 5, 2.56 CT
02/04/21,FG,5,5 1/2F [Dirt] 1:02:03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $19,000 (includes up to $4,000 Other Sources) (plus up to $3,000 ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. Claiming Price $15,000, if for $10,000, allowed 2 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Time for a Song	5/1	Rivera S	Calhoun W. Bret	SFLC	39	51.28	1.40/$1
096.3886	9	Carson's Princess	5/2	Bridgmohan S	Cox Brad H.	JE	71	45.07	1.32/$1
095.4553	4	Empressive Tap	6/1	Green A	Duhon Joe O.		28	42.86	1.39/$1
094.7270	2	Business Lady	15/1	Wiseman I	Dorochenko Gennadi		107	38.32	1.16/$1
094.1383	6	Tiz a Queen	6/1	Pedroza M	Cowan Jon M.		107	38.32	1.16/$1
093.7813	10	Double Dare You	10/1	Murrill M	Hartman Chris A.	W	71	45.07	1.32/$1
093.5592	5	Mon Cherie	7/2	Beschizza A	Stidham Michael		71	45.07	1.32/$1
093.0531	1	J Z's First	15/1	Bonnet C	Schwandt Emile	T	57	40.35	1.15/$1
092.9535	8	My Little Anita	20/1	Marquez C L	Westlye Kenneth		107	38.32	1.16/$1
091.6344	3	Smackfire	15/1	Riquelme J	Duhon Joe O.		28	42.86	1.39/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.62, ROI 0.95/$1
. . . .
100.0000 7 Time for a Song
[Category]Condition
[DirtMdnMClm]BlinkersNoChange -with-
[DirtMdnMClm]LastRaceDistanceIsGreaterThanToday

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Aqueduct - Race #4 - Post: 2:55pm - Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#6 FIRST LINE (ML=7/2)
#4 OPEN LENGTHS (ML=7/2)
#8 AMISTAD (ML=4/1)


FIRST LINE - I like to see fast morning drills. This gelding's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. Stay with this horse. No other viable pace gives this equine a strong chance at the winner's circle. OPEN LENGTHS - This jock and trainer have a beneficial ROI when they unite. AMISTAD - Last time around the track was at Aqueduct in a race with a class figure of 91. Dropping a significant amount in class rating this time out puts him in a solid position in this race. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a good outing on Jan 8th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SOCIAL GROUP (ML=3/1), #2 JUDGE ALEXANDER (ML=6/1),

SOCIAL GROUP - Hard to invest in this racer out of the January 7th affair. Only faced maidens in that one. Finished first in his most recent effort with a common speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this field. JUDGE ALEXANDER - He only beat a maiden claiming field in the last race. Have to pass on this one versus winners for now. The speed fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued contestant.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 FIRST LINE to win if you can get at least 9/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,8] Total Cost: $6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 81

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 A CHABANERO 5/1
# 6 FABULOUS DAZE 3/1
# 2 LOVEPOP 4/1

I like A CHABANERO here. Has to be given a shot versus this group displaying quite good numbers recently and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 84 under similar conditions. Exhibits the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 78 speed figure which is one of the best in this group of animals. Has a strong shot in this event if you like back class. FABULOUS DAZE - Has been moving admirably and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. LOVEPOP - This filly has a strong win percent in short races.

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