Service Plays Saturday 2/27/21

[Can'tPickAWinner]

10 Game of the Year · [724] Mississippi State Bulldogs * 6:00 pm EST

Chris Moss' One on One Sports (The Swami Site)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug Upstone

5 Indiana -1

[rocky57]

H&H Sports

CBB
Triple Dime - Louisville +6
Triple Dime - USC -4.5
Triple Dime - Colorado -6
Double Dime - Mississippi State/Alabama Over 147
Double Dime - Stanford/Oregon State Under 135
Double Dime - Wofford +3 (-112)
Double Dime - BYU -7

NBA
Triple Dime - 76ers -11
Triple Dime - Wizards -4
Double Dime - Pelicans -138 (Moneyline)
Double Dime - Nets +1.5
Double Dime - Wizards/Timberwolves Over 237

[Calidreaming]

Brian Bitler CBB Play Kansas
Power Sports CBB Play San Fran
Power Sports UFC Play ANKALAEV VS> KRYLOV Over 1 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Flight Sports

Nets over 233.5

T wolves over 236.5

pelicans -3.5

20 dime each

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Great Lakes Sports
3* Alabama-6
3* Utah +5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ian Parker

UFC

Ciryl Gane (-265) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+225): Gane

In the main event we have a clash of two rising heavyweights. Rozenstruik is coming off a violent second-round TKO of Junior Dos Santos. He looks to continue that momentum Saturday night as he faces off against rising prospect Cyril Gane. Gane, who also got a TKO in his last outing, will be looking to maintain his undefeated record. Both are excellent strikers who carry a ton of power. However, there is one big difference -- that is the ground game of Gane. Of his seven wins, Gane has secured three by submission. Look for Gane to use his striking to close the distance and get the fight to the mat, where he will have a huge advantage. Rozenstruik will have his hands full trying to defend takedowns, which will also open him up to getting hit. As long as Gane doesn't get sloppy and stays composed, he has a clear path to victory with his ground game.

Magomed Ankalaev (-350) vs. Nikita Krylov (+290): Ankalaev

After going 2-2 dating back to 2018, Krylov capped off 2020 with a decision victory over Johnny Walker. He is a well-rounded fighter with a good balance of his wins coming from both TKO due to strikes and submissions. He has a tough challenge ahead of him Saturday night stylistically. Magomed Ankalaev is a rising star in the division who can take the fight anywhere he wants. An excellent wrestler with tremendous striking, Ankalaev is ready to continue his five-fight winning streak Saturday night. Coming off a devastating knockout win over Ion Cutelaba, Ankalaev looks to do the same to Krylov. Ankalev will be the faster, more technical and more powerful striker who happens to carry excellent accuracy as well. Unless Krylov can get the fight to the floor and end up in top position, and do it for all three rounds, he is going to be in for a difficult night.

Jimmie Rivera (-145) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+125): Rivera by decision

Pedro Munhoz is coming off a loss to legend Frankie Edgar. For five rounds, we saw hesitancy and low-output striking from Munhoz, which ultimately cost him the fight. If he waits for that one power shot in his fight on Saturday against Rivera, then we will see the same the result. Rivera is a talented fighter coming off of one of his most impressive performances against a very tough Cody Stamman. Rivera did an excellent job defending takedowns, mixing up his striking, and putting out a ton of volume to keep his opponent guessing . Look for Rivera to mix up calf kicks to take away Munhoz's power and land combinations at will. If he has to rely on his wrestling, he is more than capable. He probably won't submit the BJJ blackbelt in Munhoz, but he will be able to control from top position and land strikes. I expect this fight to go all three rounds as both guys are difficult to finish, However, I see Rivera outworking Munhoz and coming away with a decision victory.

Dustin Jacoby (-175) vs. Maxim Grishin (+155): Jacoby

Maxim Grishin, a longtime veteran with a record of 31-8-2, will be taking on a talented striker in Dustin Jacoby. Grishin will have the experience edge over his opponent, but that's about it. He is a hesitant striker with very predictable takedown attempts. That will not fare well against an excellent striker in Jacoby. Since 2019, Jacoby has reinvented himself and is on a three-fight winning streak. He has a great mix set of striking techniques that he will utilize to confuse Grishin and keep him at a distance. Grishin will attempt to make this fight ugly and clinch against the cage. However, Jacoby will be the better athlete and the stronger one physically as well. Look for Jacoby to utilize his intense and accurate calf kicks to slow Grishin down, and then pick him apart with his striking.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Wise

Boxing

Saul Canelo Alvarez (-4000) vs. Avni Yildirim (+1500):

Prop bet: Fight to go the distance - YES (+700)

When it comes to betting on boxing, it's tough to find values. Just look at the straight bet line on this fight where Canelo is a near 40-1 favorite and a 16-1 favorite to win by knockout. But, there are some intriguing data points to consider when looking at Canelo's history and how the move up in weight has affected his power. Yes, he has stopped two of his three opponents at 168 or higher, but he does tend to get a bit conservative if he's not able to find the openings early. Yildirim is no world beater and is unlikely to pressure Canelo into making mistakes, but his size could play enough of a factor to keep Alvarez tentative, along with the fact that Canelo already has another fight lined up for May if successful on Saturday. All those combine into a scenario where Canelo is able to carry rounds with ease, but also play it safe and keep things moving beyond this mandatory opponent.

Prop bet: Canelo to win in Round 8 (+1200)

Prop bet: Saul Canelo Alvarez vs. Avni Yildirim, Alvarez to win between Rounds 1 and 8 (-275)

Round betting is incredibly tricky and difficult, so I advise just sprinkling something on a round you may think Alvarez can get it done in. Given the implied odds on the rounds and fight overall, oddsmakers believe the most likely outcome is a Canelo TKO early in the fight. However, Canelo is not historically a fast starter. In 34 fights since 2009, Alvarez has had just five knockouts that came in the first three rounds. He typically eases his way into a fight while downloading information on his opponents before finding the weakness and exposing it in the middle rounds. So picking anywhere between rounds 5-8 feels like the sweet spot and the value is biggest on the eighth.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley

UFC

Ciryl Gane (-265) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+225): Gane by submission

A lot of big favorites have been getting upset and Rozenstruik has serious power. He can end the fight with one big shot, and he can also keep a striking battle close. Gane just is more skilled, has a higher output and has more ways to win. If he wants to take it to the ground, it will be a much safer path. You can better odds for Gane by looking into the inside-the-distance prop, if offered by your sportsbook.

Magomed Ankalaev (-350) vs. Nikita Krylov (+290): Ankalaev via TKO

Ankalaev is one of my most confident picks on the card. Ankalaev could be a future champion and I think he will be the better striker. I also think he is the better wrestler and can use that as defense to keep the fight standing. Krylov is dangerous on the feet and the ground, but takedowns are his best chance. Give me Ankalaev to wear him down and finish him late.

Mayra Bueno Silva (-140) vs. Montana de La Rosa (+120): Silva by decision

Silva seems more dangerous on the mat but that is going to be De La Rosa's best path because she should be at a big disadvantage on the feet. Silva has solid striking and I don't see De La Rosa wanting to strike for long. If she can get takedowns, she can win with top control. I have to take Silva because the biggest edge is her striking and she also could be an even better grappler.

Jimmie Rivera (-145) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+125): Munhoz by decision

Rivera is the more powerful striker and the better wrestler. Munhoz is the higher-volume striker and he is the better grappler. I think the majority of this fight plays out on the feet and I see Rivera landing the harder shots, but Munhoz landing more of them. I like to lean with the volume side so I will pick Munhoz.

Angela Hill (-290) vs. Ashley Yoder (+245): Hill by decision

This is a rematch from 2017 in which Hill won a unanimous decision. I think she is the one who has improved more since, so I agree with her being a decent-size favorite. Hill is the better striker but Yoder is the better grappler, so she can win this fight on the mat. Yoder likely won't accept a striking battle because it won't go well for her, so she needs to look for takedowns and maybe she can get a submission or win two rounds.

Alex Caceres (-220) vs. Kevin Croom (+190): Croom by submission

Croom is sloppy but he is super aggressive. He is always going for the finish and I think he will cause Caceres issues. Caceres is the better striker, but this fight isn't going to take place at range. I like Croom to look for takedowns early and I see him finishing this fight with a choke.

Alexander Hernandez (-185) vs. Thiago Moises (+165): Hernandez by decision

The only advantage I can give Moises would be the submission game, but he isn't a good enough wrestler to control the fight. Hernandez should be the one pushing forward and likely trying to keep this fight on the feet. He can win a striking battle and possibly get a knockout. He isn't levels above Moises in the striking, but I like him to win this fight.

Sabina Mazo (-200) vs. Alexis Davis (+170): Mazo by decision

Davis is a grinder and will continue to push forward, throwing strikes and taking punishment. I don't see that working in 2021 against a younger, more talented prospect. Mazo should be better everywhere and I think she can have success on the feet or the mat. She could get a stoppage, but I will take her to win a clear decision.

William Knight (-110) vs. Alonzo Menifield (-110): Knight by TKO

These are some huge light heavyweights, and it could just take one big shot from either of them to end the fight. Menifield is the scarier striker but is a knockout-or-bust type guy. He is only looking to strike but he doesn't carry peak power for 15 minutes. He is the scariest in the first half. I think Knight plays this smart and takes it to the mat, where he won't be in danger. I like him to get a TKO through ground-and-pound at some point.

Ronnie Lawrence (-160) vs. Vince Cachero (+140): Lawrence by decision

I was super impressed with Lawrence's "Contender Series" performance and that fight was enough for me to pick him Saturday. I wasn't sold on his regional-scene fights, but he landed 12 takedowns against Jose Johnson and he landed them at a 70 percent clip. Cachero was taken down five times in his UFC debut, so I think this sets up a clear path for Lawrence here. I give Cachero the striking edge and he has fought the better competition, but I would rather take the fighter who can control where the action takes place.

Dustin Jacoby (-175) vs. Maxim Grishin (+155): Jacoby by decision

Jacoby should be the better striker, but the ground game has always been his issue. If I knew Grishin would come in looking to mix in takedowns, then I would probably take him. I think this fight is close and he can hang on the feet and even get a stoppage. I just don't trust that he can land multiple takedowns and I like Jacoby to be the one landing more and doing more damage.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

10 Game of the Year · [752] St. Peter's Peacocks * 8:00 pm EST

Total Sports Solutions (The Swami Site)

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Cleveland Insider NBA

Spurs +2.5
Magic +9.5
Thunder +7

[rocky57]

H&H Sports (Adds CBB) - 4* Kansas +4.5 (CBB 4* Plays 5-2 Overall)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

gianfranco1114

nba system bet 1 unit on 1st hlf double bet on 2nd hlf over if 1st doesnt win

1H PELICANS / SPURS OVER 116.5
1H JAZZ / MAGIC OVER 106.5
1H MAVS / NETS OVER 118

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker
Peabody’s picks
Washington W
Florida st L
Creighton L
Kansas

We take
Arizona L
North Carolina W
Xavier W
Baylor