Thursday 2/25/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...57-ML-Baseball

College Basketball
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...CAA-Basketball

NBA
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...NBA-Basketball

NHL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...?58-NHL-Hockey

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: WGC Workday Championship Outright Winner
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: February 25, 2021 10AM EST
Play: Tyrrell Hatton to Win WGC Workday (+2250)
WGC Workday Championship
Outright Winner
For the Outright market, you have to look at chalk in the WGC events. Since the beginning of 2016, there have been 18 WGC events and the longest winner was Kevin Kisner at 60-1. More telling though, is that 14 of the 18 winners have been at odds of 20-1 or less. So do not waste your time looking down the list too far this week, especially on an unknown course like Concession and generally the best players in the world are quicker at adapting to new tracks and there are no horses for courses guys in play this week.
Technically just outside that list at +2200 is Tyrell Hatton, although some books have him as low as +1800 so I’m counting him in that 20-1 or under range. But Hatton has been playing some great golf. Over the last 16 months, in 22 starts he has four wins including winning the Abu Dhabi Championship in January. Including those four wins, he finished in the Top-10 in 12 of those 22 events including finishing T6 in this event last year. Granted this event was played in Mexico but just proof this guy can play well and win in deep fields.
For a longshot leaderboard play this week, jump on Billy Horschel, the Florida Gator alum playing in his home state is +750 for a Top 10 or +1600 for a Top 5. I expect him to be a guy making some noise during the upcoming Florida swing.
For DFS players, Hatton is $9,600 on DraftKings or $11,000 on FanDuel and you can get Horschel for $7,000 on DraftKings or $7,900 on FanDuel. Both are worthy of a roster spot this week.
TAKE TYRRELL HATTON +2250

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Hideki Matsuyama vs Marc Leishman
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: February 25, 2021 11AM EST
Play: Marc Leishman (+155)
WGC Workday Championship
Tournament Matchup DraftKings
Leishman was a guy to fade after the restart last year. He missed five out of seven cuts including the first playoff event but was able to make it all the way to the Tour Championship thanks to a strong first half of the year performance including a win. He then went on to finish dead last at the BMW with a final score of +30 and finished 2nd to last at the Tour Championship.
He then missed the cut at the US Open and finished near the bottom of the CJ Cup and the Zozo Championship, two events without a cut. Then seemingly out of nowhere, he finished T13 at The Masters to propel him into 2021. In four events so far this calendar year he has three Top 25 finishes with his worst finish coming last week, but still solid at T32.
Looking at Matsuyama, he hasn’t been playing terribly by any means, he is just not playing anywhere near where he is being priced. He did miss the cut last week at The Genesis to snap a run of eight straight cuts made, but his finishes have not been that impressive. In 2021 so far he has made the cut in four of five events, but he only has one Top 25 finish and his next best was T41.
Matsuyama is known as an elite ball striker but a terrible putter. His ball striking was always good enough to carry him but that has fallen off so far this year as he ranks only 49th Off the Tee, 55th in Approach and 54thAround the Green. Then of course his putting is still awful, ranking 181st.
Yet Matsuyama is still being priced as a big favorite over Leishman at DraftKings and I just can’t see how that is justified. This is a great value number on current form of these two players, so grab Leishman at the big + number.
TAKE MARC LEISHMAN OVER HIDEKI MATSUYAMA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Molde at Hoffenheim
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: February 25, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Hoffenheim -1.5 (-120)
UEFA Europa League
These teams played to a 3-3 draw last week which was remarkable considering how much Hoffenheim controlled that game. They put up 26 shots with 13 on goal compared to just 8 shots with 4 on goal for Molde. Hoffenheim also generated 4.67 xG, the highest of any team in the Europa League last week, nearly three goals more than Molde who did play well offensively, mustering up 1.76 xG. But the defense is why I'm fading them here.
That draw was a great result for Molde considering it was their first competitive game in two months which certainly showed defensively. Norway’s top league is in between their seasons as they don’t play during the coldest months of the year due to their northern location. I think they will once again struggle on the back end as they just don’t have their game speed right now. Meanwhile, Hoffenheim are coming in off another great performance over the weekend, crushing Werder Bremen 4-0 at home and while I don’t expect that score to repeat here, they should be able to cover this number with at least a two goal win at home.
TAKE HOFFENHEIM -1.5
Line Parameter: 4% to -1.75

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

Event: (224497) Real Sociedad at (224498) Manchester United
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: February 25, 2021 3PM EST
Play: Manchester United +102
Outside of the referee in Atalanta-Real Madrid neutering the home team in Bergamo with a ridiculous red card that put them on the defensive for basically the entire match, La Liga has had a dreadful run in the Champions League Round of 16. What does that mean for this Europa League match between Real Sociedad and Man U.? For starters, given that the three teams Sociedad has defeated this month, Cadiz, Getafe and Alaves – are 14th, 15th and 16th in the standings – it means that this trip into Old Trafford is going to be extremely challenging regardless of who Ole Gunnar Solskjaer throws out there. Juan Mata should get his first starting call since returning to the fold, Dan James has been strong of late and should be dynamic in connecting with whoever starts between Anthony Martial and Marcus Greenwood up front. Ride Manchester United on the 3-way money line to knock off Real Sociedad again for the sweep in this second leg after coasting 4-0 in the first leg.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo

Event: (739) Washington at (740) Arizona State
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 25, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Washington +9.5 (-110)
FREE PLAY: 2% WASHINGTON +9.5

These two just played 2 days ago and Arizona St won 97-64. Arizona St has been up and down all year and after such a blowout win I don’t see them being mentally focused tonight. In their mind they just have to show up and it will be an easy win. This is a great REVENGE spot and Arizona St is just 2-8 ATS at home this year. Grab the points here.

TAKE WASHINGTON +9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (11) Boston Bruins at (12) New York Islanders
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: February 25, 2021 7PM EST
Play: 1P Total Over 1.5 (+110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (208245) Goias at (208246) Vasco da Gama
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: February 25, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Goias +509
System Play:
Back undervalued underdogs in Brazilian Serie A between two teams averaging a 25% or less win percentage on the season.
137 occurrences / +36.57 units / 26.69% overall yield.
Take Goias on the moneyline for Thursday at the huge price.
PLAY: GOIAS ML +509

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Feb 25 '21, 12:15 PM in 3h
PGA | Tyrrell Hatton vs Harris English
Play on: Harris English +105 at Mirage

1* Free Play on Harris English +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

Thursday free play is to look for the Kings and the Knicks to play an Under in their NBA battle at Madison Square Garden.

I know the Kings have played their last 7 games Over the total and they stand at 21-10 Over the total for their 31 games in the books this COVID-19 campaign, but the Knicks are one of the few teams in the league I trust to bottle up the opposition, so I am going to look for this one to hold Under the total.

New York just played Under the total on Tuesday night at home against Golden State as the Knickerbockers have now landed Under the total in each of their last 3 games and in 8 of their last 11 this year.

For the season, Tom Thibodeau's team is 22-10 Under the total and that does include the first meeting between these teams back on January 22nd in California where the final score landed Under the total by 22 points.

Series numbers show 6 straight Unders and Unders played in 9 of the past 10 series meetings.

Any further questions?

5* SACRAMENTO-NEW YORK UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Banks - NCAAB - Thu, Feb 25 at 9:00 PM

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Minnesota Gophers

Northwestern vs Minnesota

Minnesota -4.5 (-115) (BetOnline)

Minnesota is in need of a win and that's what they've done over the last couple of seasons when on a 3-game losing streak. They've bounced back well in this spot and they're getting a team they can handle tonight. Northwestern has hit the skids, losers of 13 straight on the road. Minnesota has been money at home this season winning 13 of 15 and covering 11 of those games. I'm backing Minnesota minus the points. Thanks and best of luck to us! Jack Banks.



NOTE: Jack Banks swept last night led by his CBB Conf Game of the Year! He's 60-38 ATS the last 18 months with GOY releases and he has a CBB Conf Game of the Year on Thursday! Take it to the bank with Jack Banks!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 3	Pick 5 (3-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 3-4
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 3:35P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF RACES ALLOWED 4 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. SUCESORA is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * QUEEN LETIZIA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. PAULA'S VICTORY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SUCESORA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has ru n a Good Race within the last 30 days. BLESSING TOO: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	QUEEN LETIZIA	5/2	4/1
5	PAULA'S VICTORY	3/1	6/1
1	SUCESORA	10/1	6/1
2	BLESSING TOO	9/5	7/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	BABY ANA	3	5/1	Front-runner	0	0	51.6	35.0	25.0
5	PAULA'S VICTORY	5	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	58	49	80.4	50.2	46.2
6	QUEEN LETIZIA	6	5/2	Stalker	59	61	46.4	58.2	55.2
2	BLESSING TOO	2	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	59	60	46.2	39.6	29.6
1	SUCESORA	1	10/1	Trailer	64	55	44.2	43.8	38.3
4	PEDESTAL	4	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	50.2	16.1	6.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Superfecta (.10 min) / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) $0.20 Golden Pick 6 (Races 2-7) $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $25,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Age 3 • CR: 70 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 1:20P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $22,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. DARCEE'S LOVI DOVI is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DARCEE'S LOVI DOVI: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at t he distance/surface. TIME IS GONE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SOUL PRODIGY: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start aft er a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	DARCEE'S LOVI DOVI	3/1	7/2
4	TIME IS GONE	2/1	5/1
1	SOUL PRODIGY	4/1	6/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	DARCEE'S LOVI DOVI	3	3/1	Front-runner	56	59	118.5	55.9	48.9
1	SOUL PRODIGY	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	62	88.8	49.8	43.3
5	THEY'RE GRRREAT	5	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	72.0	60.7	55.7
4	TIME IS GONE	4	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	64	70.1	56.5	51.5
6	PRINCE ON THE RUN	6	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	52.1	46.5	41.0

Unknown Running Style: TALISKER BAY (15/1) [Jockey: Herrera Hugo - Trainer: Haley Gloria].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park

02/25/21, OP, Race 8, 4.40 CT
02/25/21,OP,8,6F [Dirt] 1:07:04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $88,000. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of $45,000 In 2020 - 2021 Allowed 3 lbs. $35,000 In 2020 - 2021 Allowed 6 lbs.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	One for Richie	15/1	Arrieta F	Contreras Cipriano	JSWL	91	37.36	1.91/$1
099.4722	3	Bank	3/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.	FE	91	37.36	1.91/$1
099.1758	4	Fastly	9/5	Rocco. Jr. J	Calhoun W. Bret		91	37.36	1.91/$1
098.9571	6	Thomas Shelby(b+)	3/1	Cohen D	Diodoro Robertino	T	91	37.36	1.91/$1
097.2406	8	Abundant	6/1	Gonzalez E	Morse Randy L.		91	37.36	1.91/$1
097.2091	5	Kadri	10/1	De La Cruz F	Jones J. Larry		91	37.36	1.91/$1
097.0357	1	Bandit Point	10/1	Harr K	Cline Robert N.	C	91	37.36	1.91/$1
096.9159	2	Rob the Rich	12/1	Talamo J	Matthews Randy		91	37.36	1.91/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.80, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.5278
[Category]Condition
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]LastRacePurseLowerThanToday -with-
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]RacePurseGreaterThan$50K

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 5 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8800 Class Rating: 68

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SAY YES SALLY 2/1
# 2 STEVE'S BABE DOLL 5/2
# 7 TOCCALOT 15/1

SAY YES SALLY looks very strong to best this field. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the best class figs of this group of animals. Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong speed figures (63 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Her 67 average has this filly with among the top Equibase Speed Figures for this event. STEVE'S BABE DOLL - Must be carefully examined based on the very strong speed figure put up in the last contest. Lately Juarez has been hot which may give the edge to this mare. TOCCALOT - Looks very good for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races lately. Had one of the most respectable Equibase speed figs of this group of animals in her last race.