Friday 2/26/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (819) Rider at (820) St. Peter's
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 26, 2021 4PM EST
Play: Total Over 132.5 (-110)
BET SIZE / RANGE
3% at 133.5 or less
2% at 134 or 134.5
1% at 135 or 135.5
No play above 135.5
My college hoops totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, history involving similar games (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (25) Los Angeles Kings at (26) Minnesota Wild
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: February 26, 2021 8PM EST
Play: 1P Total Over 1.5 (+105)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 2	Pick 6 / Exacta / Daily Double 2-3
Claiming $4,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 3:10P
FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON FOUR RACES SINCE JANUARY 1, 2020 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 22 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 7 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. API DIPLOMATIC is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * EL TOSTAO: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibas e Speed Figure at the distance/surface. API DIPLOMATIC: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Spee d Figure at the distance/surface.
4	EL TOSTAO	4/1	5/2
2	API DIPLOMATIC	3/1	7/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	API DIPLOMATIC	2	3/1	Front-runner	52	49	37.6	35.4	30.9
4	EL TOSTAO	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	55	35.4	55.6	53.6
5	KING DANIEL	5	2/1	Trailer	48	48	13.8	30.2	23.2
1	SACROMONTE	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	49	40.8	34.6	28.1
3	ERNESTO M.	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	31.3	2.8	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Sam Houston - Race #8
Picks Notes
#10 Dashboard Returns as a gelding for this second lifetime start, and it's probably worth giving him another chance after the decent finishing effort when bet to 4/1 in the debut.
#1 Temple of Sol Finished in front of the top choice in that common race, and that was a nice first try on the grass. He's tough here with any kind of step forward in this second start off the bench.
#9 Colloquist He has had some chances, but he might find the local company a bit more to his liking. Still, he'll need better than what he showed when ending his 2020 campaign.
Race Summary Dashboard has room to move forward off the debut run, and this first-time gelding has more upside than most of the logical players in here.

Sam Houston - Race #9
Picks Notes
#9 Blue Blazes Who Willing to take a swing here after the modest comeback run, but she chased the pace that day off more than a year layoff, and she has a right to stick around much better today with that last one under her belt.
#4 Quinn Ella She'll drop to the lowest level she has seen with winners, and her comeback race for three times this price was really solid. Mild worry about the drop, but she has never been a classy type, so perhaps it's splitting hairs.
#11 Salaciousacusation She'll need to hold her form 20 days out of the Asmussen barn, but her recent running lines give her a right to be tough with these if she can bring something similar for the new team.
Race Summary Blue Blazes Who is capable of something better than she showed off the bench, and the price should get better with this bunch tonight.

Sam Houston - Race #10
Picks Notes
#3 Set the Pace It's encouraging that they've still got her protected with special weight company off the dud, as they were willing to risk her for $25k in the debut run. She's capable of something better than she showed last out.
#11 Moro Coffee Think she's probably a bit overbet with these tonight, but she has run a couple of decent races locally and should get a decent trip near the front.
#1 Lumberjack Leslie Debuts against a group that isn't all that imposing, and she figures to be a decent price from the fence with a chance for a share at first asking.
Race Summary Set the Pace needs to bounce back off a dull local debut, but she's likely to show something a bit better here and should be right up on the splits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #12
Picks Notes
#2 SAINT ALBRAY Trapped, full of pace, late burst between rivals for third.
#4 LAURIE LEE Easy win off six-week layoff, now 9-for-18 lifetime.
#1 IDEATION HANOVER Drops, gets favorable post switch, stands 45/8-8-9 on fast track.
Race Summary Saint Albray took money again, lacked running room until the stretch, then weaved through traffic to finish a fast-closing third at this level. Play 2-1 and 2-4 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 MIA CULPA Steps up after well-measured, comeback victory.
#4 MAJOR LEAGUE N As always, the one to catch, seeks 19th win.
#7 SWIFT ALLY Late foot after three months away, draws outside again.
Race Summary Mia Culpa, unhurried into the stretch as the odds-on favorite, kicked into high gear while widest to win going away. She draws the rail and offers plenty of value on the class hike. Play a 1-ALL exacta.

Yonkers - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 JM'S DELIGHT Trapped at key juncture, stayed on for third, good value play.
#1 OURLITTLEGENERAL A Buried lesser at Freehold for 28th career win.
#6 PICARD A Faded from pocket in local debut, makes third start of cycle.
Race Summary JM's Delight was trapped in the third quarter while the 2-1 winner shook loose from the field. He finished well for third, earning a playback in the same spot. Play 3-1 and 3-6 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#7 The Mighty Judge Lacked a big kick last time but looks to be rounding back into better form; was claimed two back by Tharrenos and will be ridden by Zayas, who can probably have him closer early than he's been lately.
#1 Austrian Rallied well for second in his last two and will be a big player if he runs back to either of those; makes his third local start, which could help him out.
#5 Digital Footprint Lost a photo last out and has been right there in his last two; he's running at lower levels than last year and takes a step up here.
Race Summary The Mighty Judge lagged too far back in recent races but is capable of keeping closer to the lead; capable of a big effort at a decent price.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 Long Beach Kid Ran an even third last out and has responded to rider Vazquez in three of his four races; may have found his level.
#7 Golovkin Has enough speed to get to the lead and was a decent fourth last time in his first vs. winners; fits with these.
#3 Onemoretimearound Was up in time vs. a lower level last time and was claimed by Gargan, who is 34 percent in the first off a claim.
Race Summary Long Beach Kid ran well in his latest and can carve out a good trip here; well spotted in this one.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#4 Ideal Breeze Ran off to an easy score last time in a race she controlled from the start; will probably have to do it from just off the pace and is bred to have some kick in sprints.
#5 Headline Hunter Lead from the start and dug in nicely when challenged; finished in good time at Turfway and get Irad Ortiz here.
2 R Adios Jersey Was a clear winner in each of her two races and can be expected to apply pressure throughout.
Race Summary Ideal Breeze could continue the current success of trainer Yates, who is hitting at 25 percent for the season. This one has had just the one start and logged a bullet work in preparation for this.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

Aqueduct - Race 3	Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5) Mandatory Payout Empire 6 (.20) Races (3-8), Double
Claiming $50,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 102 • Purse: $60,000 • Post: 2:23P
(UP TO $10,440 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 1, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * DEEP SEA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LEGI T: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TWISTED TOM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMa ster Power Rating.
6	DEEP SEA	9/2	5/1
3	LEGIT	3/1	6/1
5	GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS	5/2	7/1
1	TWISTED TOM	9/5	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	DARK STORM	4	6/1	Stalker	96	88	67.0	85.2	76.2
6	DEEP SEA	6	9/2	Trailer	100	105	78.6	92.8	86.8
3	LEGIT	3	3/1	Trailer	106	99	73.2	86.2	78.2
1	TWISTED TOM	1	9/5	Trailer	101	91	55.4	93.4	88.9
5	GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS	5	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	103	99	68.2	93.8	90.3
2	FIRST LINE	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	89	65.6	71.2	61.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

Aqueduct - Race 3	Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5) Mandatory Payout Empire 6 (.20) Races (3-8), Double
Claiming $50,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 102 • Purse: $60,000 • Post: 2:23P
(UP TO $10,440 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 1, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * DEEP SEA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LEGI T: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TWISTED TOM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMa ster Power Rating.
6	DEEP SEA	9/2	5/1
3	LEGIT	3/1	6/1
5	GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS	5/2	7/1
1	TWISTED TOM	9/5	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	DARK STORM	4	6/1	Stalker	96	88	67.0	85.2	76.2
6	DEEP SEA	6	9/2	Trailer	100	105	78.6	92.8	86.8
3	LEGIT	3	3/1	Trailer	106	99	73.2	86.2	78.2
1	TWISTED TOM	1	9/5	Trailer	101	91	55.4	93.4	88.9
5	GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS	5	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	103	99	68.2	93.8	90.3
2	FIRST LINE	2	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	89	65.6	71.2	61.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - SA - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000, NEBRASKA-BRED $6,500, OR LESS IN 2020-2021. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 INAGOODWAY 5/2
# 5 GOODNIGHTLOVING 3/1
# 4 ALEX'S BOURBON 7/2

I have to consider INAGOODWAY here. Displays solid Equibase speed figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this field. Has been running admirably lately and will almost certainly be on the lead early on. Has to be given a chance - I like the figs from the last affair. GOODNIGHTLOVING - She has a good opportunity in here as conditioner, Anderson, has solid win clip with horses going this distance. With a very good 80 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this competition. ALEX'S BOURBON - Is tough not to examine given the company run in recently. Should come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved quickly to the lead recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Sam Houston - Race #2 - Post: 7:12pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,500 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#4 LIGHT UP THE DEVIL (ML=9/2)
#2 EURODEVILWOMAN (ML=4/1)
#1 SALTY HEART (ML=20/1)


LIGHT UP THE DEVIL - TrackMaster keeps good stats on this type of information. This mare always seems to run well after a vacation. This horse's last race was out at Louisiana Downs in a race with a class rating of 85. Dropping significantly in class rating this time around puts her in a solid position in today's race. Trainer Neatherlin gave this mare a good stiff workout. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. EURODEVILWOMAN - This mare should run better today now that she's back facing here own gender. Last time around the track was at Sam Houston in a race with a class number of 86. Dropping considerably in class rating this time around puts her in a solid position today. Trainer, Broberg, has been deliberate with this mare off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. SALTY HEART - This should be an easier task than what she was asked last time out against 'open' company. After the contest aboard this equine on October 31st, the jock is going to know the mare much better. This rider and trainer's horses have been producing a favorable return on investment. Has run good races in the first or second starts back off of a vacation.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DUSTWHIRL WONDER (ML=7/5), #5 SING PRADA SING (ML=3/1),

DUSTWHIRL WONDER - This morning-line choice may be out of condition without any recent works. I find it hard to bet on any mount in a sprint event at 7/5 when she hasn't shown any successful efforts in sprints in the last couple months. Can't play this morning-line favorite off the long layoff. SING PRADA SING - This questionable contender hasn't been close to the winner at the wire of late.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 LIGHT UP THE DEVIL to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitchell Newman

For Friday night in the Big Ten, going to back the Purdue Boilermakers in this near-pick'em game at Penn State.

Not sure how a 15-8 teams is listed as the slight +1 point underdog (as I release this selection) to an 8-12 team, but one think I know is the Boilers have the best player on the floor in Trevion Williams who averages 16 points per game and just over 9 rebounds per contest.

Purdue is also getting quality play from Jaden Ivey who is coming on strong after missing 5 games due to a foot injury.

Matt Painter's team did win the first season series meeting at home, 80-72 and they have been able to win 9 of the past 10 series meetings overall.

The Boilers offense has been percolating of late with 75 points scored in their last pair of games and in 3 of their last 4 overall. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions lone win over their last 5 games came their last time out against the door mat of the conference in Nebraska.

Unless I am missing something, I really do not understand this line tonight?!?!?

Take Purdue.

3* PURDUE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trace Adams

Heading into Friday night the Atlanta Hawks have played Over the total in 9 of their last 10 games, while the Oklahoma City Thunder have held Under the total in 4 straight and 7 of their last 8 games overall.

Obviously, one of those streaks I just mentioned is going to take a hit tonight, but which one will it be? Will it be the Hawks pronounced Over run, or the Thunder's pronounced Under run?

To get to the answer to that question, one must look at the series meetings between the teams that show each of the last 6 meetings between the teams as having landed Over the total.

This is the first meeting of the season between the teams and while the rosters of each club have changed during their 6 game Over run, I still feel playing the Over in OKC on Friday night is the way to go.

Hawks to make it a 10-1 Over run as they combined with the Thunder for some offense this evening.

2* ATLANTA-OKLAHOMA CITY OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Friday night comp play on Portland plus the points as they take on the slumping Lakers at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

The Trail Blazers have dropped back-to-back games at Phoenix and Denver on Monday and Tuesday, but the Blazers loss at the Nuggets did see them cover in the underdog role plus the points.

Portland has in fact covered in 7 of their last 9 games coming into this showdown with the Lakers.

As for the Lakers, they are clearly missing the services of Anthony Davis, but the absence of Dennis Schroder who has been sidelined for COVID-19 protocols has also been big for Los Angeles. Davis is still out, but Schroder is expected to be back for this contest for a Los Angeles team that has lost 4 in a row both straight up and against the spread.

Overall, LA is on a 4-12 pointspread slide their last 16 games, so forgive me if I am a little reluctant to lay the lumber with the home team tonight.

Portland did win the first meeting between the teams back in December, 115-107 as the +6 1/2 points road dog and I think they can at least cover tonight plus the points.

2* PORTLAND

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Stronach 5

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 69

LRL - R10 - FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $8,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 GET LIT 7/5
# 2 BALTINGLASS 20/1
# 5 MOONZANO 12/1

GET LIT figures to be the bet in here. Is difficult not to look at based on speed figures which have been quite good - 63 avg - of late. Has performed admirably lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 64 avg speed fig. Have to play this gelding with the formidable earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. BALTINGLASS - Will probably compete soundly in the early pace clash which bodes well with this field. MOONZANO - Must be considered for this event if only for the very good Equibase Speed Fig put up in the last contest.