Saturday 3/6/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:16 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (200101) Arsenal at (200102) Burnley FC
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 6, 2021 7AM EST
Play: Correct Score 2-0 (+800)
We're taking the ‘Correct Score 2-0’ prop [Arsenal to win exactly 2-0] on Saturday in the EPL game between Arsenal and Burnley.
Burnley have struggled for goals all season at Turf Moor, registering just a 0.79 goals per game record at home this year.
Arsenal meanwhile have really shored up their defense in 2021, allowing just 0.80 goals per game since January 1st.
Arsenal have won four of the last five in Burnley and have shut them out in three of those four also.
Take Arsenal to win exactly 2-0 on Saturday on the road against Burnley.
PLAY: CORRECT SCORE 2-0 +800

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:16 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Southampton at Sheffield United
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 6, 2021 10AM EST
Play: Sheffield United +0.5 (-120)
England Premier League
Southampton is dealing with a ton of injuries and are really struggling at the moment, now winless in their last nine EPL matches. In those nine matches, they have generated just 9.04 xG while allowing the most xGA in the league at 17.10. Compare that to Sheffield United who during that same time frame have generated less xG at 7.20 but have been better defensively allowing 14.85 xGA.
After a record setting worst start to an EPL campaign in history, Sheffield United are playing better with seven wins and six losses in their last 13 games in all competitions including five wins in their last eight home games.
Sheffield definitely need results right now to keep their hopes alive of digging out of the relegation zone and I think a win here is a good possibility but I'll play it safe on the double chance.
TAKE SHEFFIELD UNITED +0.5
Line Parameter: 4% to +0.25

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:16 AM

Tony Finn

Event: (601) Florida State at (602) Notre Dame
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: March 6, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Florida State -6.5 (-110)
The Irish have lost four straight as they ready for their regular-season ACC finale against Florida State's Seminoles.
Notre Dame has allowed 174 points combined in their last two losses: Boston College and North Carolina State. The Irish can't defend the three, have allowed their opponents to shoot over 50 percent from the floor across their last four contests, and rank 12th in the conference in adjusted team defense.
The Seminoles bounced back from their loss to the Tar Heels last Saturday with a mid-week 29-point victory over Boston College, a squad that defeated Notre Dame this past weekend, scoring 94 points against a porous Irish defense.
Lay the touchdown with the visiting Noles in what figures to be a Saturday walk in the ACC park.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:17 AM

Info Plays

Mar 06 '21, 12:30 PM in 5h
Soccer | Sigma Olomouc vs FC Viktoria Plzen
Play on: FC Viktoria Plzen -220 at linepros

1* FREE INFO PLAY on FC Viktoria Plzen -220

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:18 AM

Mike Lundin

Mar 06 '21, 1:08 PM in 5h
NHL | Rangers vs Devils
Play on: Rangers -117 at linepros

Rangers vs. Devils Free Pick March 6, 2021
The New York Rangers are 5-2-0 in their past seven games, and here they'll face a Devils team that has won only one of its last eight games (in overtime). The Devils are just 2-8-1 home at Prudential Center and the road team is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head meetings with the Rangers.
The Rangers put a 6-1 beating on New Jersey a couple of days ago and the Devils are 1-6 in their last seven games following a home loss of 3 or more goals.
Free pick on New York Rangers.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:18 AM

Sean Murphy

Mar 06 '21, 1:08 PM in 5h
NHL | Sabres vs Islanders
Play on: Islanders -199 at pinnacle

Saturday NHL Free play. My selection is on New York over Buffalo at 1:05 pm et on Saturday.
This play should be fairly straightforward to anyone who has followed the action on the ice this season. The Sabres are a down-trodden bunch with things having gone so poorly that there are even trade winds blowing when it comes to franchise player Jack Eichel. Here, the Sabres are an easy negative momentum fade as they've been outscored by an average margin of 1.5 goals, scoring just 1.4 goals per game themselves, when coming off a loss by two goals or more this season. Buffalo is also a miserable 7-23 when revenging a same season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals in that situation. The Isles are playing some of their best hockey of the season right now, winners of five of their last six games overall and having given up just three goals over their last three games combined. Take New York (8*).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:19 AM

AI Picks for Saturday's Triple Crown Preps + SA Handicap

March 5, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday presents another trio of Triple Crown prep races toward the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes. To help you tackle the diverse set of races, the app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the Gotham Stakes from Aqueduct, the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs and the San Felipe at Santa Anita. Also this week, we'll include the AI picks for Saturday's prestigious Santa Anita Handicap for the older horses.

Selections provided by the app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

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Aqueduct // Grade 3 Gotham Stakes // Race 9 // 5:07 PM ET

#5 Crowded Trade // 30%W // 48%P // 61%S
#3 Highly Motivated // 18%W // 32%P // 43%S
#6 Capo Kane // 11%W // 31%P // 54%S
#2 The Reds // 11%W // 19%P // 34%S
#7 Freedom Fighter // 9%W // 22%P // 35%S
#1 Atlantic Road // 8%W // 16%P // 23%S
#8 Weyburn // 8%W // 16%P // 23%S
#4 Wipe the Slate // 6%W // 16%P // 27%S

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Tampa Bay Downs // Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby // Race 11 // 5:25 PM ET

#3 Candy Man Rocket // 28%W // 37%P // 48%S
#11 Promise Keeper // 16%W // 35%P // 46%S
#8 Hidden Stash // 12%W // 21%P // 35%S
#6 Awesome Gerry // 7%W // 16%P // 31%S
#7 Moonlite Strike // 7%W // 19%P // 29%S
#5 Boca Boy // 7%W // 11%P // 18%S
#12 Sittin On Go // 5%W // 17%P // 31%S
#10 Helium // 5%W // 11%P // 20%S
#9 Unbridled Honor // 3%W // 9%P // 13%S
#1 My Liberty // 3%W // 8%P // 10%S
#2 Super Strong // 3%W // 8%P // 10%S
#4 King of Dreams // 3%W // 8%P // 10%S

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Santa Anita Park // Grade 2 Fan Felipe // Race 6 // 5:30 PM ET

#1 Life is Good // 27%W // 48%P // 69%S
#3 Medina Spirit // 20%W // 40%P // 56%S
#7 Roman Centurian // 13%W // 33%P // 47%S
#5 The Great One // 13%W // 30%P // 46%S
#2 Dream Shake // 10%W // 18%P // 31%S
#4 None Above the Law // 10%W // 18%P // 30%S
#6 Govenor’s Party // 5%W // 13%P // 20%S

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Santa Anita Park // Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap // Race 10 // 7:30 PM ET

#1 Independence Hall // 33%W // 46%P // 60%S
#2 Maxfield // 16%W // 29%P // 46%S
#3 Kiss Today Goodbye // 14%W // 31%P // 56%S
#5 Express Train // 14%W // 34%P // 44%S
#4 Coastal Defense // 9%W // 15%P // 26%S
#6 Idol // 5%W // 15%P // 25%S
#7 Tizamagician // 5%W // 15%P // 21%S
#8 King Guillermo // 5%W // 15%P // 21%S

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:19 AM

Race of the Week: Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita

March 4, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$400,000 GRADE 1 KILROE MILE AT SANTA ANITA
Saturday, March 6, 2021

The Lead:
The 11-race Santa Anita Handicap Day card on Saturday features 5 stakes, including Grade 1 fixtures in the Big 'Cap and the Kilroe Mile. Both are part of a guaranteed payout in the Rainbow 6 in which track officials estimate a pool of more than $6 million if the jackpot wager carries over from Friday. The Rainbow 6 will be Races 6-11 and a historically tricky Kilroe Mile awaits in Race 9. Six straight winners of the Kilroe Mile have paid $12-plus and we haven't a Grade 1-winning turf mile favorite at Santa Anita in more than 6 years. Let's get to work!

Field Depth:
SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed. CASA CREED, COUNT AGAIN and RIDE A COMET have scored at the Grade 2 level. SOCIAL PARANOIA owns a Grade 3 win and is Grade 1-placed. HIT THE ROAD and FLYING SCOTSMAN have won at the Grade 3 level. This is a pretty evenly matched field on class, though CASA CREED may have kept the strongest company lines over the longest span.

Pace:
For a Southern California turf mile, this sure is light on early jazz. SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT may be quickest of the locals from the rail, but has been more of a first-over type in his last 6 starts. CASA CREED made the front in the Shadwell Mile, but typically also is in more of a spying position. Widest-drawn FLYING SCOTSMAN wired his last at Gulfstream and from the 10-hole likely will be sent to the front by Tyler Baze. Expect him to be the target. HIT THE ROAD is well-drawn and has an aggressive early new pilot in Florent Geroux and should be in close proximity to the front.

Our Eyes:
Six Gulfstream shippers come west in this field of 10: white-hot RIDE A COMET, millionaire SOCIAL PARANOIA, CASA CREED, Chad Brown stablemates FLAVIUS and SPIRIT ANIMAL, and the aforementioned pace player FLYING SCOTSMAN. East coasters haven't had a lot of success in this race in recent years, and some big names like Got Stormy, World Approval, Channel Maker and Lochte are among those who have fallen short. We've seen horses like Ring Weekend, Proviso, Gio Ponti and Kip Deville winter here for eastern outfits and capture the Kilroe before leaving town, but a successful east coast raid has been extremely rare.

Of the Floridians, RIDE A COMET has won 8 of his last 10. Trainer Mark Casse will try to erase Kilroe Mile disappointments in recent years by Got Stormy and World Approval with a colt who has been flawless since returning from a year-plus layoff. CASA CREED looked very sharp down the lane in his Feb. 21 Payson Park workout as captured at XBTV.com. He's a classy sort who should be among the first flight in terms of pace. SPIRIT ANIMAL and FLAVIUS worked together Feb. 26 at Palm Meadows and were very tough to separate on video, equally solid while both under total restraint. SPIRIT ANIMAL had an awful trip throughout the Seabiscuit for trip handicappers. FLAVIUS was third in that one and earned a 102 BRIS late pace figure, the best last-race number in this field. Both could factor late for Chad Brown. SOCIAL PARANOIA was asked and didn't impress on video in his Feb. 27 final work for this. But he's perfect at 1 mile in 3 tries and had a tough post last out in the Pegasus World Cup Turf.

California's 4-pack includes win machine SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT, who has scored in 6 of his last 10; HIT THE ROAD in search of 4 straight victories; the hot-and-cold COUNT AGAIN; and Brazilian Group 1 winner ROYAL SHIP trying to break through stateside for red-hot trainer Richard Mandella.

SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT should work out a great trip from the rail with tactical speed in a race that doesn't have much tempo. He bullied the 3-year-old grass division a year ago, but will make his first start against elder rivals and that can be a significant class rise no matter the race designations. Jockey Umberto Rispoli sticks with him over HIT THE ROAD, which could not have been an easy decision. HIT THE ROAD looked awesome in the Thunder Road last out when he exploded late behind a perfect trip. You could see him sitting third again in this field under sharp pilot Geroux and delivering a similar kick. The concern was that last race was off a 7-month layoff and he hasn't worked as sharply since that race as he did going into it. Still, I like his chances. COUNT AGAIN looked like a rising star when he won the Seabiscuit with a massive 106 BRIS late pace figure at Del Mar in November. But he took a weird step in the San Gabriel as the even-money favorite, and trainer Phil D'Amato said he thinks the horse lost his footing before jockey Juan Hernandez eased him. He has been working freakishly good back on the Santa Anita training track since then, similar to the way he looked prior to the mysterious San Gabriel mishap. His turn of foot for a mile is significant.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
The balance of this field and the questions surrounding many of the contenders leaves this category without an obvious choice. I'll lean to the Californians, and I like what I've seen of late from COUNT AGAIN in the morning.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
FLYING SCOTSMAN looked stellar in a career-best Gulfstream turf mile win last out vs. a field that included Structor. He could get bold again as potential loose speed if ridden aggressively from the wide draw. Santa Anita G1 turf miles have averaged a $22 mutuel since 2014, so you don't have to be shy.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
After a $380 winning cash in this space last week, let's keep it going. $40 win COUNT AGAIN, who should be an inflated price off of his last. $10 exacta box COUNT AGAIN, HIT THE ROAD, FLYING SCOTSMAN ($60).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:20 AM

Santa Anita Handicap Day Post Draw Reaction

March 3, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Eight runners, including unbeaten Maxfield, entered today for Saturday’s tradition-rich Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. The Big ‘Cap headlines an 11-race program that begins at noon PT and includes a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 pool that could reach more than $6 million. The mile and one-quarter Santa Anita Handicap has been run since the track’s inaugural 1934-’35 race meeting and has been won by legends like Seabiscuit, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, John Henry and Alysheba.

The 2020 Santa Anita Handicap presents the first west coast foray for Louisiana-based Maxfield, who is 5-for-5 with graded stakes wins at ages 2, 3 and 4. Florent Geroux accompanies the Brendan Walsh trainee west and will be adorned in the famed Godolphin blue from post 2. Shaman Ghost was the most recent Santa Anita Handicap winner in 2017 who raided from outside California.

The gate will be positioned at the head of the homestretch with a long run to the clubhouse turn, so post positions in an eight-horse field ought not have a major impact. Tizamagician, runner-up in the San Pasqual and one of four horses re-matched from that Jan. 30 local tilt, is expected to be the pace-setter once again from post 7. His trainer, Hall of Famer Richard Mandella, has been red-hot in recent weeks with 5 wins from his last 8 starters, according to the database.

Rail-drawn Independence Day could be asked for some early pace by the meet’s leading jockey, Flavien Prat. Coastal Defense, sixth in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream Park, adds blinkers for the first time and could show more early foot from post 4.

As for Saturday’s undercard, Sham Stakes 1-2 finishers Life Is Good and Medina Spirit re-match for Bob Baffert in the Grade 2 San Felipe (Race 6). Those Triple Crown trail hopefuls kick off the Rainbow 6 sequence that also includes the Grade 2 San Carlos (Race 8) for sprinters, as well as a Grade 1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile (Race 9) that features shippers for the likes of Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown, Bill Mott and Mark Casse.

Race 10 // 7:30 pm ET // Santa Anita Handicap // One Mile and One-Quarter

#1 Independence Hall // Flavien Prat
#2 Maxfield // Florent Geroux
#3 Kiss Today Goodbye // Mike Smith
#4 Coastal Defense // John Velazquez
#5 Express Train // Juan Hernandez
#6 Idol // Joel Rosario
#7 Tizamagician // Drayden Van Dyke
#8 King Guillermo // Abel Cedillo

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:20 AM

Jon White's San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby & Gotham Picks

March 3, 2021 | By Jon White

Beginning in late January, I’ve been making selections in terms of this country’s races offering points toward a starting berth in the Grade I, $3 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.

Of the nine such races, I have picked the winner in six of them, as noted below:

Date Race (Selection) Finish, $2 win payoff if applicable

01-30-21 Holy Bull (Greatest Honour) WON, $7.60
01-30-21 Robert B. Lewis (Medina Spirit), WON, $4.00
02-06-21 Sam F. Davis (Candy Man Rocket), WON, $8.20
02-06-21 Withers (Donegal Bay), finished 7th
02-13-21 Risen Star (Senor Buscador), finished 5th
02-13-21 El Camino Real Derby (Rombauer), WON, $4.40
02-26-21 Battaglia Memorial (Gretzky the Great), finished 3rd
02-27-21 Southwest (Essential Quality), WON, $3.80
02-27-21 Fountain of Youth (Greatest Honor), WON, $4.00

There are three races this Saturday with Kentucky Derby points up for grabs. They are the Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, Grade II Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs and Grade III Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. All three races will reward the first four finishers with 50-20-10-5 points toward the 1 1/4-mile Run for the Roses.

SAN FELIPE STAKES

This has come up as one of the stronger races from top to bottom on the Kentucky Derby trail this year. Life Is Good, who is two for two, heads the field of eight.

My selections for the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe are below:

1. Life is Good
2. Dream Shake
3. Medina Spirit
4. The Great One

Seven are entered in the San Felipe.

Life is Good, who is No. 2 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10, has done something leading up to this race that I do not recall any other horse ever doing in Southern California since I first started covering races at SoCal tracks in 1981. He put together a string of six consecutive breezing workouts before going out last Sunday morning and working six furlongs in 1:12.20 handily at Santa Anita.

The official clockers at SoCal tracks rarely list a workout as breezing. A breezing designation is stingily reserved for when a horse works considerably easier than a horse whose workout is listed as handily.

Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains Life is Good. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt has recorded seven Santa Anita workouts following his victory in the Grade III Sham Stakes on Jan. 2 (rank among works at that distance that day in parentheses):

--Jan. 11, 4 furlongs in :47.00 breezing (2/42)
--Jan. 27, 4 furlongs in :49.60 breezing (56/112)
--Feb. 01, 4 furlongs in :48.80 breezing (31/179)
--Feb. 08, 6 furlongs in 1:12.00 breezing (1/9)
--Feb. 15, 5 furlongs in 1:00.80 breezing (4/33)
--Feb. 21, 5 furlongs in :59.60 breezing (1/54)
--Feb. 28, 6 furlongs in 1:12.20 handily (1/3)

Life Is Good now has had 19 recorded SoCal works. None were listed as breezing prior to his streak of six straight such workouts. As I noted last week, to put what Life is Good has been doing into some context, consider how it compares to some of the other elite horses trained by Baffert, such as 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.

American Pharoah had 27 recorded workouts prior to the Kentucky Derby. None were listed as breezing. During American Pharoah’s entire racing career, only two of his 42 SoCal works were listed as breezing.

Justify had 17 SoCal works before the Kentucky Derby. Again, none was listed as breezing.

What about 2020 Horse of the Year Authentic? Due to COVID-19, the Kentucky Derby was moved from May 2 to Sept. 5. Only one of Authentic’s 56 SoCal works prior to the Kentucky Derby was listed as breezing.

Life Is Good is exceptionally fast. What Baffert has concentrated on trying to accomplish in recent weeks is to get Life Is Good to “harness his inclination to go too fast too soon,” as Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman put it in what he wrote after the smooth-moving colt’s 1:12.20 workout last Sunday.

“Based on how he’s done in his last couple of drills, including Sunday morning here at Santa Anita, he seems to be getting the hang of it,” Privman wrote in terms of Life Is Good not being as headstrong as he had been earlier this year. “In his final drill before Saturday’s Grade II, $300,000 San Felipe Stakes, Life Is Good worked six furlongs in 1:12.20, but the key points are that he started off well under control, then galloped out a full mile. The work was reminiscent of what trainer Bob Baffert did with Arrogate and American Pharoah.”

When I have watched Life Is Good’s workouts on XBTV, he has been pure poetry in motion. After I watched his 1:00.80 work on Feb. 15, I mentioned in a text to Baffert that Life Is Good appeared to me to be just floating over the ground. Baffert’s one-word reply was “freaky.”

A factor in Life Is Good’s improvement in cooperating better with his rider seems to stem from a change in the colt’s bit, as Privman reported on Feb. 15. The purpose of the new bit was to give exercise rider Juan Ochoa “more control of the at-times headstrong colt,” Privman wrote.

Back on Nov. 27 at Del Mar, jaws dropped when Life Is Good won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race by 9 1/2 lengths as a 1-5 favorite. He was credited with a 91 Beyer Speed Figure.

Life Is Good then got the job done in Santa Anita’s one-mile Sham when again backed down to 1-5 favoritism. He was cruising along with a four-length lead at the eighth pole, but then his lead shrank in the final furlong. Life Is Good was three-quarters of a length at the finish.

Medina Spirit, also trained by Baffert, closed the gap in the lane to give the big favorite a bit of a scare. While it was undeniably a fine try by Medina Spirit in his first start since a three-length debut win Dec. 11 at Los Alamitos, he had to settle for second.

After the finish of the Sham, Life Is Good galloped out well all the way to the backstretch. That indicated his gas tank was far from empty toward the end of the race.

The form of the Sham was bolstered when Medina Spirit subsequently won Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30. Medina Spirit will try to turn the tables on Life Is Good in the San Felipe.

While Life Is Good’s margin of victory in the Sham was less than a length, Authentic won the 2020 Sham by 7 3/4 lengths despite racing greenly in the final furlong. But to Life Is Good’s credit, his final time in the Sham of 1:36.63 was quite a bit faster than Authentic’s 1:36.57 in the 2020 renewal.

Life Is Good was credited with a 101 Beyer Speed Figure in the Sham, much higher than Authentic’s 90.

Authentic would go on to win two of the nation’s most important events, the Kentucky Derby and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic. He was voted 2020 Eclipse Awards as Horse of the Year and champion 3-year-old male.

Life Is Good’s 101 in the Sham is the highest Beyer Speed Figure posted by a 3-year-old so far in 2021.

Below are the seven-best Beyers recorded this year by a 3-year-old, male or female:

Beyer Winner (Finish, Race, Track, Date)

101 Life Is Good (won Sham at Santa Anita on Jan. 2)
99 Medina Spirit (2nd Sham at Santa Anita on Jan. 2)
98 Mandaloun (won Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 13)
97 Proxy (2nd Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 13)
96 Dream Shake (won maiden race at Santa Anita on Feb. 7)
96 Midnight Bourbon (3rd Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 13)
96 Essential Quality (won Southwest at Oaklawn on Feb. 27)

As for those I am picking underneath Life Is Good in the San Felipe, I was very impressed by Dream Shake’s marvelous win at first asking in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden contest Feb. 7 at Santa Anita for trainer Peter Eurton. That was the race in which the hyped-to-the-moon Baffert-trained Bezos also made his career debut.

Bezos finished seventh as an overwhelming 3-5 favorite and has not had a recorded workout since. Dream Shake, dismissed at 20-1, raced next-to-last early in the field of nine, passed rivals with a rush on the far turn and drew away in the stretch to win by 4 3/4 lengths in 1:17. He was credited with an excellent 96 Beyer Speed Figure.

Even though Dream Shake trounced one of the strongest maiden fields seen at Santa Anita in years, he does not seem to have generated any real buzz. Mainly because Baffert trains Bezos, if that colt had won that same race by nearly five lengths and recorded a 96 Beyer, he’d be all the rage.

Dream Shake received an excellent Thoro-Graph number of 1. Regarding Thoro-Graph, the lower the number the better the performance, which is the opposite of the Beyers.

Thoro-Graph takes many more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”

The Great One also registered a Thoro-Graph number of 1 when he won a one-mile maiden race by 14 lengths Jan. 23 at Santa Anita. The only other Thoro-Graph number by a 3-year-old male that low this year going into last weekend was Greatest Honour’s 1 when he won Gulfstream Park’s Grade III, 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull Stakes by 5 3/4 lengths on Jan. 30. I have not yet seen what Greatest Honour’s Thoro-Graph number was for his victory in last Saturday’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream.

Life Is Good received a 2 3/4 Thoro-Graph number for his debut, the same number he got in the Sham.

TAMPA BAY DERBY

My selections for the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby are below:

1. Hidden Stash
2. Candy Man Rocket
3. Helium
4. Boca Boy

Daily Racing Form's Marty McGee reports that this race has attracted a field of 12.

Candy Man Rocket, a Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, is coming off a one-length win in the Grade III, 1 1/16-mile Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Hidden Stash was gaining late when he finished third, 1 1/4 lengths behind Candy Man Rocket.

I’m going with Hidden Stash because it appears to me he might turn the tables on Candy Man Rocket in their rematch this Saturday at 1 1/8 miles. Vicki Oliver trains the Kentucky-bred Constitution colt.

Helium, trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse, will be making his first start of 2021. The Kentucky-bred Ironicus colt was two for two at Woodbine last year on a synthetic surface. Helium earned his maiden diploma by 3 1/4 lengths in a seven-furlong race, then won the Display Stakes at the same distance by 4 1/4 lengths. He’s racing on dirt for the first time this Saturday.

Boca Boy set the early pace and finished fourth in the Davis. Inasmuch as that was his first race since last Sept. 26, perhaps he can stick around and again finish in the superfecta in this Saturday’s longer race. Cheryl Winebaugh trains the Florida-bred Prospective colt.

GOTHAM STAKES

My selections for the one-mile Gotham Stakes are below:

1. Freedom Fighter
2. Highly Motivated
3. Capo Kane
4. Wipe the Slate

Eight are scheduled to clash in the Gotham.

Freedom Fighter finished second, a half-length behind Concert Tour, in Santa Anita’s Grade II, seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 6. Baffert trains both Concert Tour (who is headed for Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on March 13) and Freedom Fighter.

I thought Freedom Fighter ran a heckuva race in defeat due to the fact that he was returning from a layoff in the San Vicente. The Kentucky-bred Violence colt recorded a fine 94 Beyer Speed Figure in the San Vicente. That was a huge leap from his 79 when he won a five-furlong maiden race at Del Mar last Aug. 1 in his only start prior to the San Vicente.

Highly Motivated, a Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt trained by Chad Brown, warrants much respect in the Gotham. This will be Highly Motivated’s first start since he won the 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist Stakes by 4 1/4 lengths at Keeneland last Nov. 6. Into Mischief sired the 2020 Kentucky Derby winner in Authentic.

Capo Kane figures to appreciate cutting back to one mile after he showed early zip and finished third in Aqueduct’s 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes on Feb. 6. Harold Wyner trains the California-bred colt whose sire, Street Sense, won the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

Wipe the Slate, trained by Doug O’Neill, will be racing around one turn this Saturday. In his most recent start, the Kentucky-bred colt finished sixth in Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles around two turns on Jan. 30.

Nyquist, Wipe the Slate’s sire, won the 2016 Kentucky Derby for O’Neill, who also won the 2012 Run for the Roses with I’ll Have Another. Wipe the Slate is a half-brother to Mitole, who was voted a 2019 Eclipse Award as champion male sprinter.

MY CURRENT KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10

Last Saturday was the actual 20th birthday for the highly successful sire Tapit. That same day, two of his sons, Essential Quality and Greatest Honour, won important graded stakes races on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Essential Quality, close up early on the sloppy track, splashed his way to a 4 1/4-length victory in Oaklawn’s Grade III Southwest Stakes last Saturday in his first 2021 start. The Kentucky-bred colt now is four for four.

Brad Cox, who was voted a 2020 Eclipse Award as outstanding trainer, conditions Essential Quality. Following Grade I wins in the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Essential Quality was voted a 2020 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male.

By winning the Southwest, Essential Quality retains the No. 1 spot on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week.

Last Saturday, Essential Quality completed his 1 1/16-mile journey in 1:45.48. He recorded a career-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure.

Greatest Honour climbs a notch to No. 3 on my Top 10 this week after he rallied from ninth in the field of 10 to win last Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth going away by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:44.02.

The Fountain of Youth was one of 14 races on the Gulfstream card last Saturday. In terms of a Beyer for his victory, Greatest Honour originally received a modest figure.

Greatest Honour’s Beyer Speed Figure for the Fountain Youth was “originally posted as an anemic 83,” Privman wrote. It was “upgraded on overnight review to 89, equal to the career-best Greatest Honour earned in the Holy Bull.

“This had to be a difficult figure to make,” Privman added, “as there were no other two-turn dirt races on the marathon card. And let’s not kid ourselves -- Greatest Honour wasn’t exactly running against the second coming of Hindoo (shout out to the late, great Joe Hirsch).”

Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey trains Greatest Honour. McGaughey has expressed confidence that Greatest Honour will get better as the distances get longer than 1 1/16 miles. This student of breeding concurs with that distinct possibility. Tapit has sired three winners of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes (Tonalist in 2014, Creator in 2016 and Tapwrit in 2017). Greatest Honour’s dam, Tiffany’s Honour, is a half-sister to two winners of the Belmont (Jazil in 2006 and Rags to Riches in 2007).

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Essential Quality
2. Life Is Good
3. Greatest Honour
4. Caddo River
5. Mandaloun
6. Concert Tour
7. Medina Spirit
8. Hot Rod Charlie
9. Keepmeinmind
10. Roman Centurian

CESARIO DIES IN JAPAN

It was with sadness I learned that Cesario died of a ruptured artery last Saturday at Northern Farm in Japan at the age of 19. She was Japan’s champion 3-year-old filly of 2005.

Cesario won the Group I Japanese Oaks at about 1 1/2 miles on the turf in 2005. Later that same year she was sent to Hollywood Park to run in the American Oaks at 1 1/4 miles on the grass.

Keep in mind that back then, horses from Japan did not do all that well on the world stage, unlike these days.

I was at Hollywood Park the day that Cesario competed in the American Oaks. She ran off before the race to such an extent that I thought she might be scratched. She pretty much ran a race before then also running in a race.

Amazingly, Cesario won by four lengths. It remains one of the most impressive performances by a racehorse that I have ever seen.

“Making a huge statement for Japanese racing, Cesario demolished an international field of 3-year-old fillies in winning the $750,000 American Oaks on the Hollywood Park grass,” BloodHorse’s Jack Shinar wrote. “A granddaughter of Sunday Silence, the strapping bay filly Cesario parlayed a victory in the Japanese Oaks into an invitation to the American Oaks and became the first Japanese-bred horse to win a Grade I stakes race in the United States.”

Cesario produced Japanese champions Saturnalia and Leontes, plus Epiphaneia, who won the Group I Japan Cup in 2014.

Epiphaneia is the sire of Daring Tact, who won the Japanese Filly Triple Crown last year.

Leontes is the sire of Pink Kamehameha, winner of the $1.5 million Saudi Derby on Feb. 20. Runner-up in the Saudi Derby was U.S. shipper Cowan, who previously had also finished a distant second to Caddo River in Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 22.

Cowan, trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, is scheduled to make his next start in the UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. That race offers 100-50-20-10 qualifying points toward this year’s 147th running of the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May.

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

Two-time Eclipse Award winner Monomoy Girl moved up to No. 2 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll in the aftermath of her two-length win on a sloppy track in last Sunday’s Grade III Bayakoa Stakes at Oaklawn. The 6-year-old Kentucky-bred Tapizar mare, trained by Brad Cox, now sports a lifetime record of 14 victories in 16 starts.

Monomoy Girl was voted a 2018 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old filly. She did not race at all in 2019, then was voted a 2020 Eclipse Award as champion older dirt female.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 382 Charlatan (23)
2. 349 Monomoy Girl (14)
3. 300 Knicks Go
4. 289 Maxfield (4)
5. 159 Swiss Skydiver
6. 158 Mystic Guide (1)
7. 152 Colonel Liam
8. 92 Gamine
9. 77 Jesus’ Team
10. 70 Channel Maker

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 405 Essential Quality (37)
2. 336 Greatest Honour (1)
3. 302 Life Is Good (2)
4. 258 Mandaloun (1)
5. 206 Medina Spirit
6. 174 Caddo River
7. 121 Concert Tour
8. 91 Keepmeinmind
9. 74 Risk Taking
10. 39 Proxy

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:20 AM

San Felipe, Gotham & TB Derby Picks + BTH Recap

March 4, 2021 | By Johnny D

Saturday, a trio of important sophomore races have attracted nationwide connections desirous of mandatory hotel reservations in Louisville, Kentucky on the first Saturday of May. If you’re keeping score at home, this year Derby Day is May 1 and that’s as early as it possibly can be. That’s in stark contrast to last year when extenuating circumstances (you may have a more colorful description on the tip of your tongue) forced the race to be moved to September 5, the latest date ever in 146 years.

Let’s not do that again.

Below is one man’s horse-by-horse analysis of those Saturday stakes races:

AQUEDUCT // RACE 9 (5:07PM ET) // GRADE 3 GOTHAM STAKES // 1 MILE
50 - 20 - 10 - 5 KENTUCKY DERBY POINTS

1. ATLANTIC ROAD (PLETCHER/VARGAS) - 30/1

This son of Quality Road broke maiden last out going 7 furlongs at the Big A. It was a hard-fought victory, but this race will require much more. Pass.

2. THE REDS (KIMMEL/MORALES) - 30/1

This Big Red Machine took 5 starts to break maiden last out but did it while going one mile and one-eighth as favorite. While he holds a fitness edge, he’ll need to be much faster to do damage in here. Exotics only.

3. HIGHLY MOTIVATED (BROWN/CASTELLANO) - 8/5

Winner of 2 of 3, this son of Into Mischief will attract plenty of attention. Away since November when he demolished foes in the Nyquist at Keeneland in fast time going six and one-half furlongs, he returns for 45% Aqueduct trainer Chad Brown. This is a one-turn mile, so he won’t be forced to negotiate an additional bend. Still, it’s difficult to go from age 2 to 3, come off the bench, stretch out and defeat fit and fierce foes. Granted, this guy faced solid competition in limited starts—both second and third-place finishers in the Nyquist returned to win next out—but a very short price based on headlines earned in one race sometimes get the job done at a short price. This is the time to go against the favorite. Exotics Only.

4. WIPE THE SLATE (O'NEILL/CARMOUCHE) - 6/1

This guy’s connections decided to duck the Life is Good show in the San Felipe at Santa Anita for a cross country ship and shot in the Gotham. With good reason, too. Life is Good beat this guy by more than 9 lengths when they met in November going six and one-half furlongs. This colt’s got California speed and that will play well in the Big Apple. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche is familiar with the lead and that’s where he’ll be with this guy. He’s liable to take this field a long way. Contender.

5. CROWDED TRADE (BROWN/CANCEL) - 9/2

It’s interesting that trainer Brown decides to enter this recent maiden winner against #3 Highly Motivated, also trained by Brown and the race favorite. Brown also attracts 20% jock Eric Cancel to ride and they are 3 for 7 together in 2020-21, according to Daily Racing Form stats. Connections must have a high opinion of this son of More Than Ready purchased for $185k at Keeneland as a yearling. Exotics Only.

6. CAPO KANE (WYNER/DAVIS) - 5/1

He’s a speed horse that’s made the lead in all three races since his debut at Parx in October. He will find it difficult to gain the lead from #4 Wipe the Slate in here. If he demands it, he will have nothing left for the finish. He should be fit after a decent Gr. 3 Withers effort, but he’ll be pressured in here. Pass.

7. FREEDOM FIGHTER (BAFFERT/FRANCO) - 5/2

Here’s another from the left coast with speed. Baffert runners rarely ‘take back’ and this guy ought to have his game face on as soon as the gate opens. The outside post position is an advantage because jockey Franco will be able to ‘clock’ what’s happening with the other speed horses drawn inside of him. Connections of this son of Violence hope that #4 Wipe the Slate and #6 Capo Kane tangle early so that Freedom Fighter can stalk in the garden spot. He’s fit, too, having raced courageously from the rail in the 7-furlong Gr. 2 San Vincente stakes Feb. 6 to finish second to another highly regarded Baffert runner in Concert Tour. Two bullet works at Santa Anita since then will make him very tough to beat. Pick to Win.

8. WEYBURN (JERKENS/MCCARTHY) - 20/1

Drawn outside, this son of Pioneer of the Nile has speed and 1 win from 3 starts. He should be outrun early by a few of these but won’t be too far behind. The real question with him is how good is he? A few of these seem to be better at this point. Pass.

BOTTOM LINE

Are you ready for a dose of coast-to-coast Baffert? We know, ‘Not him again.’ The guy’s loaded with 3-year-olds on his way toward an attempt to win a record seventh Kentucky Derby. Who are we to stand in his way? #7 Freedom Fighter is ‘all systems go’ in the Gotham and catches the talented #3 Highly Motivated coming off a layoff. #4 Wipe the Slate, also a California-based runner figures in the picture as well. It’s not impossible one of the sharp recent maiden winners could run well in here, but we’ll stick with the proven horses.

$20 Exacta ($40)

1st: #7 Freedom Fighter
2nd: #3 Highly Motivated & #4 Wipe the Slate

TAMPA BAY DOWNS // RACE 11 (5:25PM ET) // GRADE 2 TAMPA BAY DERBY // 1 1/16 MILES
50 - 20 - 10 - 5 KENTUCKY DERBY POINTS

1. MY LIBERTY (MEJIA/MEJIA) - 30/1

Broke maiden last out going 7 furlongs at Tampa after missing in 3 previous starts at Gulfstream Park where best race was a 5-furlong turf sprint. It will take more than that to win this race. Pass.

2. SUPER STRONG (JOSEPH JR/GALLARDO) - 8/1

This son of Super Saver was purchased for $77k as a 2-year-old and won his only start—a Grade 1 Stakes race—by coming from off the pace while going 7 furlongs in the slop. What’s interesting about the victory is that it came in Puerto Rico. Normally, this colt would be easy to dismiss but there are some interesting connections. Trainer Saffie Joseph wins at a 21% rate overall—but only 9% at Tampa and this is one of 3 runners he’s entered in the race. Jockey Antonio Gallardo hits at an impressive 24% at Tampa. The colt’s work pattern is solid with moves every 7 days at Palm Meadows, including a best-of-30 :59 3/5 bullet Feb. 13. Blinkers go on for this. Like we said, there’s some interesting stuff going on here. Exotics Use.

3. CANDY MAN ROCKET (MOTT/ALVARADO) - 2/1

Winner of the Gr. 3 Sam Davis last out and 2 of 3 starts overall, this son of the Candy Ride will be favored in here. He’s trained by Hall of Fame resident Bill Mott and figures to be close to the early pace. He has a nice :48 3/5 Feb. 28 Payson Park bullet blowout to strengthen his case. Win Contender.

4. KING OF DREAMS (AVILA/CAMACHO) - 20/1

This $180k 2-year-old purchase has 1 win in 2 starts. That was last out going a mile and one-sixteenth on turf at Gulfstream at 16-1 odds. His first attempt was a sloppy seven furlongs at Aqueduct where he showed speed and stopped. Pass.

5. BOCA BOY (WINEBAUGH/ARROYO) - 15/1

Expect this son of Prospective to attempt to set the early pace. He tried those tactics last out when he faded to fourth, beaten 4 lengths, in the Sam Davis. In his defense, he had been off since winning a state-bred stakes race at Gulfstream going a mile and one-sixteenth in the slop in September. He may have needed his last race. If that’s the case, he could hang around a bit better than before and that could put him in the exotics picture at a decent price. Exotics Only.

6. AWESOME GERRY (JOSEPH JR./DIAZ JR.) - 15/1

This son of Liam’s Map is one of trainer Saffie Joseph’s 3 entries in the race. Since breaking maiden for $50k at Gulfstream in July and then winning an optional $60k claiming race, this colt has been pitched exclusively against stakes foes at Keeneland, Delta Downs and Gulfstream. He managed a second, third and fourth in those races before finishing nowhere in the Gr. 3 Holy Bull—his first try around two turns. He’s usually about mid-pack early in the race and blinkers come off today. While he’s faced creditable competition, he would be a huge surprise as the winner. Pass.

7. MOONLITE STRIKE (JOSEPH JR./CENTENO) - 20/1

Another in the trio of Saffie Joseph runners making the trip from the east coast of Florida. This colt paired two virtually wire-to-wire scores back to back at Gulfstream in November and December. He did not do as well when shipped to Oaklawn Park for the Smarty Jones where he was beaten by nearly 18 lengths in late January. 20% local winner jockey Daniel Centeno has the mount. Pass.

8. HIDDEN STASH (OLIVER/BEJARANO) - 4/1

Here’s an interesting runner. This son of Constitution was purchased for just $50k as a yearling at Keeneland. He’s earned over $121k in 5 starts, including 2 wins and a third last out in the Gr. 3 Sam Davis at 8-1 odds. In his first start since November, he rode the rail in the Davis, angled out in the stretch, lugged in a bit but kept coming to finish just one and one-quarter length behind favorite #3 Candy Man Rocket. Hidden Stash never changed leads that afternoon but also didn’t change leads when he won a $75k optional claimer at Churchill in November. Perhaps that’s just him. In that race he was 4-wide the entire 2-turn mile and one-sixteenth journey. Jockey Rafael Bejarano, who’s 2-for-2 on the colt returns for this race. It’s worth noting that this colt has improved Beyer Speed Figures in all 5 of his races. Bottom line on this guy is that he tries. He may not be good enough to win but he’ll go down trying. Use Him.

9. UNBRIDLED HONOR (PLETCHER/LEPAROUX) - 20/1

This lightly raced son of Honor Code returns off a maiden win at Tampa going one mile and 40 yards. He has improved Beyer Speed Figures in each race but he will need another jump to contend here. He’s been well bet in his last two starts. Pass.

10. HELIUM (CASSE/FERRER) - 6/1

This son of Ironicus has been away since October when he won the Display. That was his second win in as many starts—both 7 furlongs over Woodbine’s artificial surface. He will need to stretch out to two turns, handle dirt for the first time and overcome the 10 post. Lots to prove. Pass.

11. PROMISE KEEPER (PLETCHER/SAEZ) - 8/1

Fourth, beaten more than 10 lengths by #3 Candy Man Rocket, in his first start going six furlongs at Gulfstream, Promise Keeper rebounded strongly going one mile over a sloppy track to win by 5 lengths. Did the extra distance or ‘off’ track provide impetus for the change in performance or has this son of Constitution merely responded to the pending Hall of Fame member trainer Todd Pletcher? Expect this colt to have something to say about the early pace of the Tampa Bay Derby, but he’ll need to show he can perform over a ‘fast’ track as well as he did in the slop. Pass.

12. SITTIN ON GO (ROMANS/ALVARADO JR.) - 20/1

He’s pretty much been a graded stakes fixture ever since he broke maiden at Ellis Park in August. Right off the bat he won the Gr. 3 Iroquios at 24-1 with a roaring closing finish. Since then things have been more difficult: ninth in the Gr. 1 BC Juvenile, sixth in the Gr. 2 Kentucky Jockey Club and sixth in the Gr. 3 Holy Bull. This a tough post from which to turn the ship around. Pass

BOTTOM LINE

#3 Candy Man Rocket looks a solid favorite. If you’re willing to take a shot or two against him, #8 Hidden Stash is worth consideration. He should be a solid price and might improve on his finish the last time they met. #5 Boca Boy figures to get more heat this time around but should be fitter. #2 Super Strong is a complete question mark but has positive connections for his first mainland start.

$10 Exacta ($10)

1st: #3 Candy Man Rocket
2nd: #8 Hidden Stash

$5 Exacta ($10)

1st: #8 Hidden Stash
2nd: #3 Candy Man Rocket & #2 Super Strong

SANTA ANITA // RACE 6 (5:45PM ET) // GRADE 2 SAN FELIPE STAKES // 1 1/16 MILES
50 - 20 - 10 - 5 KENTUCKY DERBY POINTS

1. LIFE IS GOOD (BAFFERT/SMITH) - 4/5

This son of Into Mischief brings an unbeaten, untied and unscored upon slate into the third start of his career that shows he’s never been behind another horse at any call. He’s got speed and will use from the rail under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith. Stablemate #3 Medina Spirit was getting to him in the final strides of the one-mile Sham Stakes and this is a sixteenth of a mile further. Was Life is Good showing weakness at the conclusion of the Sham or was jockey Mike Smith just saving as much energy as possible? The colt has worked fabulously for Baffert since the Sham. He’s the one to beat but Baffert also saddles the one that can beat him. Win Candidate.

2. DREAM SHAKE (EURTON/ROSARIO) - 5/1

This colt’s first start was something to behold. He absolutely dominated foes with a strong run around the leaders off the turn. What’s even better than his performance is the 15-1 odds his backers got. Trainer Peter Eurton did a fantastic job ‘hiding’ this one. The colt’s connections obviously thought he could run because they hired top jock Joel Rosario to ride him first time out. The price undoubtedly was inflated because Bezos, a highly touted runner from the Bob Baffert barn, also was in the race and burned a great deal of money. The step from a scintillating first out sophomore maiden sprint score to the Grade 2 mile and one-sixteenth stakes winner’s circle is huge. We would be surprised if this guy can seamlessly make it. Exotics Only.

3. MEDINA SPIRIT (BAFFERT/VELAZQUEZ) - 7/2

In the Sham Stakes, his second career start, this Protonico colt purchased for just $35k, threw a legit scare into heavily favored barnmate #1 Life is Good, when closing serious ground in the final sixteenth of the one-mile Sham Stakes. At the time, some viewed the close finish a result of the winner easing himself to the wire. However, Medina Spirit’s dead game performance in winning the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita last out going one mile and one-sixteenth suggests that as time goes on and distances increase #1 Life is Good may not be that much better than Medina Spirit. In the Lewis, Medina Spirit set a swift early pace, discouraged all closest pursuers into the turn and then was hooked by Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie in the lane. At that point, Medina Spirit appeared to be in hot water, but he courageously battled to a neck victory over a ‘good’ track. That effort suggests that the further they go the better he’ll perform and he has early pace, too. That’s a dangerous combination. Oh, and he’s trained by Bob Baffert. If anyone is liable to defeat #1 Life is Good, it’s this guy. Most Probable Winner.

4. NONE ABOVE THE LAW (MILLER/PRAT) - 30/1

This Cal-bred son of Karakontie. battled to less than two length defeat to Big Fish in the Cal Cup Derby at a mile and one sixteenth at Santa Anita. That was the gelding’s fifth race and he hasn’t won since first out for state-bred $50k in July at Los Alamitos going five furlongs. Pass.

5. THE GREAT ONE (O'NEILL/CEDILLO) - 4/1

Purchased for $185k as a 2-year-old, this son of Nyquist has improved Beyer Speed Ratings in each of 5 starts. That’s a solid sign for a 3-year-old, especially for one that won his last race by 14 lengths. That was his maiden victory and before that he finished second by a nose to Spielberg (second in the Southwest last Saturday behind 2-year-old champ Essential Quality) in the Gr. 2 Los Alamitos Derby. He has speed and can be expected to use it under regular rider Abel Cedillo. Bottom Exotics Only.

6. GOVENOR'S PARTY (FRANKO/GUTIERREZ) - 50/1

This will be this son of Governor Charlie’s eighth career start. He broke maiden by disqualification and won a $50k starter at Golden Gate before finishing a well-beaten third in the El Camino Real Stakes there. Pass.

7. ROMAN CENTURIAN (CALLAGHAN/HERNANDEZ) - 8/1

This son of Empire Maker has posted huge Beyer Speed Figure ratings leaps in 3 starts—65, 80, 91—and that’s a good sign for a 3-year-old. First out he finished more than 12 lengths behind #1 Life is Good going six and one-half furlongs. Next out he romped in a one mile and one-sixteenth maiden race. Last out he had dead aim on #3 Medina Spirit in the stretch of the Robert B. Lewis and wasn’t quite able to get the job done. For that reason, we’re against this guy in here. 20% winner at the current meet jockey Juan Hernandez returns in the saddle. If things get too hot up front and #1 Life is Good shows weakness in the lane, this fellow could once more join #3 Medina Spirit in having the best for last. Exotics Use.

BOTTOM LINE

#1 Life is Good and #3 Medina Spirit are the most logical winners of this race. No scoop there. We give the edge to the latter based on his apparent ability to improve with time, distance and price. #7 Roman Centurian and #2 Dream Shake are the most likely to complete exotics. There’s not much money to be made playing this race unless you can find a way to upset Bob Baffert’s starters in this graded Santa Anita stakes race. By the way, that’s usually a terrible plan of attack.

$1 Superfecta ($6)

1st: #3 Medina Spirit
2nd: #1 Life is Good
3rd: #2 Dream Shake, #7 Roman Centurian, #5 The Great One
4th: #2 Dream Shake, #7 Roman Centurian, #5 The Great One

$.50 Superfecta ($3)

1st: #3 Medina Spirit
2nd: #2 Dream Shake, #7 Roman Centurian, #5 The Great One
3rd: #1 Life is Good
4th: #2 Dream Shake, #7 Roman Centurian, #5 The Great One

BEAT THE HOST WINNERS

In the final qualifying round of the 2021 Beat the Host season, former Chicago Black Hawks star Eddie O’s performance as host came up 3 goals short of a hat trick. That left last chance Beat the Host challengers firing at an open net. Many took advantage of the golden opportunity--127 to be exact--and they now will advance to the BTH Championship March 12 along with 743 other qualifiers.

Fuguo Wong proved best for the week, barely, over Ajiet Thiara, $148.50 to $146. Eric Gielata finished a close third at $143. They each earned $1,000, $750 and $250, respectively.

This season a total of 24 unique players won weekly prizes, with Greg Peterson the only duplicate collector. He finished third Jan. 23 with a $164 total to collect $500 (prizes were doubled and carried over from the previous canceled week) and then returned Feb. 20 to top all players with a whopping season-high total of $273, good for a $1,000 prize.

Steven Cziguth’s total of $230.50 on Feb. 20 was the second-highest earnings total of the season. Even though he finished first just once on Jan. 23, Craig Yoshino topped all players in weekly earnings at $2,000. Weekly prize totals were doubled because they were carried over from the previous week when BTH play was canceled.

Maria Cimino topped all players with a seasonal earnings total of $621, clear of runner-up Steven Cziguth at $565.50. Joseph St Pierre finished third at $559.50. Greg Peterson $533 and Andrew Ma $505 complete the top five prize winners. Cimino and Cziguth earn seats to the Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship--$6,000 value each. St Pierre, Peterson and Ma will participate in this Saturday’s Ultimate Betting Challenge —a $3,000 value each.

Cimino’s winning seasonal total of $621 averages out to a tick over $77.50 per week. Based on $5 Win wagers, that computes to one $31 winner, two $15.50 winners, or roughly three winners returning $5 each per competition. Three $5 winners per competition? Doesn’t sound too difficult does it? Trust us, it is.

The BTH Championship will be decided March 13. Participants will be required to make $5 Win wagers in 10 competition races ($50). Wagers are ‘live,’ so players keep what they win. There’s no host to beat and participants will play against each other for 7 tournament seats worth from $6,000 to $1,500. Competition races will be posted Friday, March 12 before 5 pm.

A hearty congratulations to all of the BTH prize winners and qualifiers. Best of luck to everyone in the Championship Round. And, last but certainly not least, thanks to everyone who played BTH this season.

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:21 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 3/6/21

March 6, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s National Prime Plays

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

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Aqueduct – Sixth Race – Post time: 3:29 ET
3-Search Results (7/2)

Couldn’t have been more impressive than she was winning at first asking in early January at Gulfstream Park when she overcame a less-than-ideal trip to draw off rapidly in the final furlong to graduate by four widening lengths with plenty in reserve. It’s not surprising that she makes the leap into the $250,000 Busher Invitational, and with the proper style for this one-turn mile we’re expecting the T. Pletcher-trained daughter of Flatter to handle this class hike in stride. She’s 7/2 on the morning line and is worth a good gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play at or near that price.

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Oaklawn Park – Ninth Race – Post time: 5:10 CT
2-Will’s Secret (7/2)

Rapidly developing sophomore filly began to show her potential when a good third to divisional leader Clairiere in a maiden race three races back and then followed up with two very impressive wins, a maiden victory of her own at Fair Grounds and then most recently a 5 1/2 length romp the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The daughter of Will Take Charge should get nothing but better with experience and distance and has proven she can handle any type of ground. At 7/2 on the morning line in this year’s Honeybee S.-G2 while facing her toughest task yet, we’re expecting to see her produce a winning late kick once again.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:21 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 3/6/21

March 6, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Going Global; 8-Quattroelle

Forecast: Two recent stakes winning fillies top this year’s renewal of the China Doll Stakes, a listed affair over one mile on turf that came up fairly strong on paper. Quattroelle, victorious in the Blue Norther S. over this course and distance in late December, shows a steady and healthy series of the works during her two month hiatus and should be primed for another major performance in what will be just her fifth career start. The Irish-bred filly likes to lag and then blast home, and in a race that should produce an ample amount of early speed to compliment her style the J. Mullins-trained import will have every chance to make the winning the last run. It should be noted that the the filly she out-kicked in the Blue Norther, Javanica, returned to run a close second against the colts in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields last month. Going Global produced an intense turn of foot to capture the Sweet Life S.-G3 in her U. S. debut three weeks ago and this stretch out in trip shouldn’t be an issue at all. The only concern is the relatively quick turn around with just three weeks rest, though it was nice to see the P D’Amato-trained filly appearing eager and willing in a recent training track breeze since raced. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with the preference on top to Quattroelle.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:32 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Kershaw; 4-Shooters Shoot; 6-Bold Endeavor

Forecast: Bold Endeavor crushed a similar field over the local main track last month and if he can turn in two alike he’ll be tough right back. Making just his third start since being claimed by M. Glatt for $50,000 last November, the Bernardini gelding retains J. Rosario and projects to settle into a comfortable second flight trip and then have his chance to kick on with it from the top of the lane to the wire. Kershaw, a good third in a tough race at this level in early January, returns off a two month vacation and is another that should enjoy an ideal stalking trip from a good inside post position. In the frame in each of his five most recent outings, the V. Garcia-trained gelding, a two-time winner over the local main track, is quite strong in the speed figure department and always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent. Shoooters Shot makes his first start since being gelded and has every right to improve, especially if he can secure his preferred role as the controlling speed. Overmatched in the Palos Verdes S.-G3 sprinting in late January in his most recent appearance, the P. Eurton-trained 4-year-old makes a positive jockey switch to U. Rispoli and sports a bullet recent five furlong workout (5f, :59h, fastest of 30) to have him right on edge. We’ll prefer Bold Endeavor on top but include all three in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:06 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Annangel; 5-Beguiled; 7-Guitty

Forecast: Annangel, a clever winner over this course and distance in a $50,000 seller last month, moves into the second-level allowance ranks today in her first-off-the-claim for new trainer S. Knapp (strong stats with this angle) and should easily inherit her preferred front-running trip in a field that lacks her type early speed types. She’s a fit on numbers, and as a winner of three of just six career starts the Irish-bred filly likely has further room for improvement. J. J. Hernandez rode her to perfection last time out and stays aboard. Beguiled has the route-to-sprint angle that always catches our eye, and after being freshened since Dec. 26 and switching to U. Rispoli the P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Orb seems likely to pose a serious threat from off the pace. Closers have done quite well over this course and distance this year; on the other hand, the projected race flow may work against her. We’ll use her along with another late-runner, Guitty, who made no impact against much tougher rivals in the Wishing Well S. at this trip over this course last month but has speed figures that fit and is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat, who surely will employ the patient tactics that this French-bred filly requires. In a tough, competitive affair, all three should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:39 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Ensley’s Dream; 6-Pitsachio Princess

Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for state-bred sophomore fillies. Pistachio Princess, finished a distant fourth (beaten eight lengths) when debuting against Cal-bred straight maidens on grass in mid-January, but probably is better than the line shows after breaking slowly and then finishing with a bit of interest without being knocked about. The D. Blacker-trained filly shows a nice gate drill (5f, :59.4hg, fourth fastest of 27) two weeks ago that tells us she’s doing well and based strictly on speed figures the daughter of Vronsky won’t really need a whole lot of improvement to be a major player against this group. Ensley’s Dream, in the money in all four career starts but a well-beaten runner-up at 4/5 last time out, drops into a claimer for the first time and seems likely to stick better against this modest group. With just average speed figures that haven’t really progressed, the daughter of Smiling Tiger may not be one to trust but certainly has to be considered the filly our top pick has to fear most.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:13 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Brilliant Cut; 6-Nimbostratus; 7-Dancing Cane; 8-Plum Sexy

Forecast: Here’s a spread race over six furlongs on grass for first-level allowance 3-year-olds fillies. Logically, Nimbostratus is the one to beat after finishing an excellent third in the Sweet Life S. over this course and distance last month. Apparently most effective around one turn, the French-bred filly, shows rising speed figures, switches back to F. Prat, and will be dangerous from the quarter pole home with good racing luck. Dancing Cane, perhaps the quickest in the field, is a Tampa Bay Downs invader now in the M. Glatt barn fresh from a gate-to-wire score over five furlongs in late January that produced a speed figure comparable to our top pick’s best number. She’ll take them as far as she can, but today’s extra furlong could prove problematic. Plum Sexy projects to enjoy a comfortable pace-stalking journey from her outside draw and will have every chance to produce a career top effort after finishing behind Nimbostratus in her most recent two outings. Toss her in at a bit of a price, along with her D. O’Neill-trained stable mate Brilliant Cut, a first-time Lasix user attracting J. Rosario and guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail post position.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: A-
Use: 1-Life Is Good; 2-Dream Shake

Forecast: Life Is Good, listed as the 4/5 favorite, ran below expectations even in victory when taking the Sham S.-G3 here in early January from stable mate Medina Spirit by a diminishing three-quarters of a length, and in doing so produced some doubt as to just how far this brilliantly-fast Triple Crown prospect really wants to go. Based on his superior morning workouts that evoke memories of American Pharoah and Justify, the B. Baffert-trained colt should stay at least this far and given his rail position and the lack of other committed front-running types in the field he’s certain to once again enjoy his role as the controlling speed. We’re expecting to learn a lot about what the future lies for the barn’s top ranked 3-year-old. As a saver in rolling exotic play; we’ll include a few tickets using Dream Shake. A superior, no fluke first-out maiden winner at 20-1 last month, the son of Twirling Candy earned a giant speed figure in the process and has looked the part and then some in workouts since that race. We’re expecting the M. Glatt-trained colt to employ similar deep closing tactics at this two-turn trip, and while he may not be seasoned enough to handle a colt as gifted as Life Is Good he could easily produce a strong enough late kick to make the exacta worthwhile.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:20 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-Whisper Not

Forecast: Whisper Not didn’t really have an excuse when worn down in the final stages as the heavy odds-on favorite vs. similar last time out in a nine furlong turf affair but perhaps this return to a flat will bring out his best effort and help the English import make amends. The R. Baltas-trained colt continues to impress in the a.m., lands a comfortable inside draw, and switches to F. Prat, so he’ll likely be a short priced favorite yet again. On pure numbers, she’s a standout, so in a race that we’ll otherwise pass we can use the Poet’s Voice colt as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:52 PT Grade: B+
Use: 6-Brickyard Ride; 9-Tigre Di Slugo

Forecast: Tigre Di Slugo has the ideal mid-pack closing style for this extended seven furlong trip and a cozy outside draw that will keep him in the clear and free of trouble, so the lightly-raced six-year-old son of Smiling Tiger rates top billing in this year’s renewal of the San Carlos S.-G2 for older sprinters. A closing second with a career top speed figure in the Cal Cup Sprint in mid-January, the M. Puype-trained gelding has had only six career starts, so despite his advanced age he certainly has room for further improvement. Brickyard Ride defeated ‘Slugo last time out when simply proving to be too quick, will employ gate-to-wire tactics again in a race that he surely will control during the early stages without having to burn much energy. If the son of Clubhouse Ride can carry his speed today’s extra furlong – and based on pedigree he should be able to – the C. Lewis will prove quite troublesome once again. Both should be included in your rolling exotics; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Tigre Di Slugo on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:26 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Smooth Like Strait; 4-Royal Ship; 6-Flavius; 8-Count Again

Forecast: Big ticket players seriously may consider buying this race. Each if the 10 entrants in this year’s loaded Kilroe Mile-G1 have a right to be in the field and most have races that are good enough to make them serious challengers depending up trips, pace, and good old fashion racing luck. Best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Count Again could not have been more impressive than he was winning the Seabiscuit H.-G2 at Del Mar in November, rallying against slow fractions to be up in time while displaying an intense amount of late speed. With that eye-opening performance fresh in mind, the punters made him even money in the subsequent San Gabriel S.-G2, but the veteran gelding lagged early and then was virtually eased midway on the far turn when something apparently went amiss. Let’s just toss that race out, especially since the son of Awesome Again recently worked a spectacular five furlongs in :58 3/5 seconds on the training track, providing evidence that he’s back on the beam. He’ll need luck to negotiate a good trip, but J. J. Hernandez knows him well and will push the bottom at the proper time. Smooth Like Strait is at his best going a mile and will be on or near the lead throughout while saving ground from his good rail post position. This will be his first try against older horses but based on pure numbers the son of Midnight Lute should be highly competitive. It may be of some significance that U. Rispoli, who could have ridden either, jumps off recent Thunder Road S.-G3 winner Hit the Road to stay aboard ‘Strait. Flavius, a close second to Count Again the Seabiscuit, makes his first start since for C. Brown and recent works in Florida indicate he’s fit and ready to pick up where he left off. The son of War Front can really turn it on late and with the presence of F. Prat in the saddle he’s certain to get the patient ride he requires. Finally, at a big price, we’ll toss in the Brazilian-bred Royal Ship, who on pure form looks in deep water, but is a first-time gelding breezing better in the a.m. than we’ve ever seen him for R. Mandella. A Grade-One winner in South America, the son of Midshipman has taken time to acclimate but if he performs to his works, he’ll most likely outrun his odds, at the very least.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Maxfield; 5-Express Train; 6-Idol

Forecast: Maxfield puts his undefeated-in-five-starts record on the line in this year’s Santa Anita Handicap-G1 and will have to bring his best stuff to remain perfect. Having proven his ability to win from a stalking position or as a deep closer, the son of Street Sense has the perfect style for this 10-furlong and could easily be up to the task, albeit at a very short price. Still, this is his toughest test yet, with several lightly-raced rising stars in the field to provide plenty of competition. Express Train flashed big improvement when an excellent runner-up to Charlatan in the Malibu S-G1 in late December and earned a triple digit Beyer figure (something Maxfield has yet to do) when an overpowering winner of the San Pasqual S.-G2 a month later. His recent workouts indicate he’s nowhere near done with his improvement, so we have to make the Union Rags a serious player and the one to fear most Idol, victimized by a poor ride/trip when third as the favorite in the San Pasqual, will have every chance to show his best form at a distance he’s bred to excel at, especially with the switch to J. Rosario. The son of Curlin has had only five career starts so his ceiling has yet to be determined. But it’s up there.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Patron d'Oro; 6-Vantage Point; 10-Following Sea

Forecast: Following Sea makes his debut for B. Baffert with win-early breeding (Runhappy) and a work tab containing several blazing workouts for all to see. He’s a surefire odds-on favorite, but then again, so was Bezos, and we all know how he ran a few weeks back. Suffice to say, we have more confidence in this one. There are two others to consider, "just in case." Vantage Point is a San Luis Rey Shipper by Uncle Mo with a string of good if not as flashy series of drills. Whether or not he’s up to beating a colt like Following Sea is questionable but we suspect he can run. Patron d'Oro has done some good work in the a.m. and looks the part of a real good prospect. He's 7/2 on the morning line but if he drifts a bit higher you may want to toss him in somewhere.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-06-2021, 07:21 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis

March 5, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 13-race card ready to roll with the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 10. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

On Friday night, the track favored speed. Every winner was either on top or within about two lengths of the lead at the head of the stretch. The driver with the hottest hands was Scott Zeron with three wins. All 13-races were won by different trainers.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

6-Western Joe (3-1)-This is a tough race, some have missed a start and others usually do better work at Yonkers. This veteran has hit the board in 32 of 49 starts at M1 and has 16 pictures. Tough to leave off the ticket even though idle since 2-13.
7-Schnitzledosomethin (6-1)-Callahan worked a nice trip on 2-27 to win at a higher class than at any time this meet and fits with these. Probably won't be 11-1 but should be a square price and has the gate speed to be put in play early on.
8-San Domino A (9/2)-First start off the bench after tuning up in 1.51 in a qualifier on 2-27. Not sure how aggressive Takter-T. McCarthy will be starting from post 8. But this winner of >$136,000 in 2020 could be a square price and has won 2 of 7 starts at the Big M.
9-Ana Afreet N (7/2)-Cashed a 4th place check in a needed race after being off since 12-20. AMac could grind around from this post and reward backers. Ten-time winner in 2020 has hit the board 10 times in 17 starts at M1 with 5 pictures.

Race 11

2-Reggiano (5/2)-Left from the 9-hole in last and took control near the half, then rolled off by 5 lengths to beat this kind. Should be the one to beat but has broken stride twice in the last 6 starts.
5-Cruzing Hill (6-1)-Drops after taking the long way around versus the $12,500 claimers. Should fare better in this spot and did pace the back half in .56. This is the 2nd start for new barn, using in case #2 doesn't mind its manners and the price should be right.

Race 12

2-Kenziesky Hanover (3-1)-Figures to be in the pocket or on the lead and with that kind of trip it's best to not overlook this mare.
3-Pikachu Hanover (8-1)-Mohawk shipper should be a juicy price, so will take a swing here with this versatile 7-year-old. Makes 2nd start off a break in stride and comes right back in sequence. The McNair barn has won 3 of 10 starts over the last month.
7-JL Cruz (9/5)-Has been off since 2-13 but usually comes back in great form. Should be tough to beat with a smooth journey and Dunn is good at doing just that.

Race 13

1-Just Wave Goodbye (3-1)-Cashes checks but has been camera shy over the past 2 years only notching 2 wins in the last 28 starts. Not sure this 5-year-old deserves to be the program chalk but could get sucked around and take a picture with a top effort.
6-Na Na Na Baatman (7/2)-Drew outside in the last 2 and now makes the 1st start for a new barn. Dunn takes the lines and from this post he can get an up-close seat off the gate. Looking for a big try and has 2 wins in 5 Big M starts.

0.50 Late Pick 4

6,7,8,9/2,5/2,3,7/1,6
Total Bet=$24