Saturday 3/6/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 Bleu Ballon Stretchout pace should be able to find the front, and she has rated nicely enough while flashing speed to suggest that she can rate around two turns. Interesting.
#5 Going Global Good effort in the sprint stakes win in the North American debut, and she should be able to handle the mile trip.
#8 Quatroelle Reliable type is one of the ones in here off the stakes win last out, but I get the feeling one of the top two will get the best of her.
Race Summary Bleu Ballon's speed is likely to make her the one to catch as she stretches around two turns, and she certainly has the pedigree to handle the added ground.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Storm the Court He is landing in a pretty modest Grade II here, and he has been working well over the main track in advance of this. First jump trip behind Brickyard Ride?
#6 Brickyard Ride Not sold on him staying 7f, but he should be on the engine without a ton of early pressure. If the race flow goes his way, he's there, but I don't think the price is going to be fair.
#9 Tigre Di Slugo Reliable finisher gets 7f today, and that added ground might be enough to give him a late chance. He's the best of the finishers, but the pace may not materialize for him.
Race Summary I haven't thought too highly of Storm the Court throughout his career, but he has been moving well over the local main track in the morning and seems likely to find a good trip. Anything like the 5/1 ML price would be appealing -- he's bringing company lines that are on a completely different level than the rest in here.

Santa Anita - Race #10
Picks Notes
#6 Idol Don't think he got any favors from the ride last time out, and now he gets a rider upgrade to Rosario. Pedigree has always said longer trips would be in his wheelhouse, and today's 10f Big 'Cap run gives him a chance to show it.
#1 Independence Hall Almost had him on top. He's the best of those exiting the Pegasus World Cup, and he might wind up getting a pretty cozy trip from the inside draw.
#2 Maxfield Not much to complain about here except the multiple layoff lines, but this is a much deeper group than he has seen since facing older horses, and he's almost sure to be overbet.
Race Summary Had a tough time separating the top two, and I'm going to take a mild stand against the ML chalks and go two deep here.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#7 BEE TWO BEE Wide rally in final sixteenth came up just short.
#1 COLD CREEK CABO Changed tactics, picked up third win in last five starts.
#6 BEYOND BETTOR Steady late kick, won in seasonal debut to go 7-for-17.
Race Summary Bee Two Bee, slowed by the winning rival who started in front of him early on, gained steadily while 3-deep in the outer flow and just missed while 4-wide in a blanket finish. Play 7-1 and 7-6 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 MAGICAL WINNER K Excellent form of late if you discount two tries from the outside.
#6 WARRIOR ONE Yet to recapture 4-year-old form, class drop could be the answer.
#8 LIFE WELL LIVED Chased the odds-on fave around the track for his third runner-up finish in a row.
Race Summary Magical Winner K's only two sub-par efforts since mid-December were from post 8. He starts from the rail tonight and looms an uspet possibility against all six-figure earners. Play a 1-ALL exacta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#4 AINTNOBETTOR A Probably best in latest, joins several class risers, live price play.
#7 POINTS NORTH Solid numbers, takes magnified drop, use in all gimmicks.
#9 BETTOR B GOING Swept to winning command on final turn after second fave broke stride early.
Race Summary Aintnobettor A took late money, stayed inside at a key juncture, then swung widest and closed fastest, albeit too late. He's worth a win bet at 10-1 on the morning line, or as part of a 4-7-9 exacta box.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Willy Boi Set the pace for about six furlongs of the G3 Holy Bull and went into full retreat. He's two for two going six furlongs and can get back to good form here.
#4 Roderick Ended 2020 with an easy win at Churchill Downs and capable of mix it up early; expect a big effort.
#7 Ultimate Badger Was along for third in the G3 Swale last out and his latest success was going two turns at Churchill. He broke his maiden going five furlongs in his first career start.
Race Summary Willy Boi gave way in the Holy Bull and is back to a more familiar distance; can get back his best stride for this one.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#6 Miss Auramet Was up in time at Tampa last out and was a closing second here two races back; has taken 8 of 19 and can adjust to any scenario.
#5 Karak Has been off since May, when she was third in an open allowance at Churchill. Won the Tyro at Monmouth in 2019 and competed in Royal Ascot's Windsor Castle and Belmont's G3 Matron. Has class, speed and a long string of workouts.
#4 A Bit of Both Settled for fourth here in a race that came off the turf; won two straight at Keeneland and Churchill last fall and has a 9 of 17 record.
Race Summary Miss Auramet has a good closing move when needed but can also go to the lead if it's there for her. Running very well lately.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#9 Feeling Mischief Has been a regular in stakes at Tampa and had a win and a third in three; turns back from two turns and can be a strong factor here.
#5 Coach Jer's Joy Was a convincing debut winner and followed with a decent effort in the G3 Forward Gal. She finished fifth, beaten less than four lengths, and had to battle between rivals, which is tough in a second start. Can be in the mix throughout.
#1 Boston Post Road Was a strong winner here in her only start and would not be a surprise here. Can be in good position from the start.
Race Summary Feeling Mischief ran well in two of three stakes at Tampa and is back to a favorable distance; can finish well in this spot.

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Marco D'Angelo

Event: (11) Toronto Maple Leafs at (12) Vancouver Canucks
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 6, 2021 7PM EST
Play: Toronto Maple Leafs -190
FREE PLAY: 3% TORONTO -190 ML
Toronto is playing Vancouver for the second straight game. Toronto lost the first game but that game was their 3rd game in 4 nights and Toronto was coming off a 3 game sweep over Edmonton. That was a huge letdown spot scheduling Wise. Now playing Vancouver for a second straight game we will get Toronto’s best performance And they get their revenge in style. TAKE TORONTO

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Andrew McInnis

Event: (24709) Aljamain Sterling at (24710) Petr Yan
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: March 6, 2021 11PM EST
Play: Total Over 3.5 (-130)
Petr Yan takes on top contender Aljamain Sterling with the bantamweight championship on the line this weekend at UFC259. I see a high likelihood of this fight going over 3.5 rounds and very possibly going the distance; Yan is primarily a striker who has a wrestling background but most uses a Boeing stance and loves his long combinations while Aljermain Sterling is a very aggressive fighter as he looks to push the pace and mix up his grappling and striking to set up attacks, I think we are going to see quite the chess match and a very competitive fight and I see both guys being very durable and pushing the pace and I don’t see a ton of paths to finishes in this one and love the value of O3.5 Rounds. With this fight being so even, I see both fighters feeling things out and being patient over the first few rounds.
Play the OVER 3.5 rounds. (-130)

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Cappers Access

(Sat) NCAAB Notre Dame +7.5
(Sat) NCAAB Georgia +8
(Sat) NCAAB Ohio St -2-
(Sat) NCAAB Arkansas -15

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Trace Adams

My comp play for this final Saturday of the regular season will be to put on my lumberjack shirt and lay the wood with the Wichita State Wheat Shockers who play host to the South Florida Bulls.

True, the Shockers needed overtime back before Christmas to take down the Bulls in an 82-77 road win, but it was Wichita's 3rd straight series victory and their 4th in the past 5 between the teams while going 3-1-1 against the spread.

Wichita State is playing much better at this point in the season and their 2 week COVID-19 pause did not bother them all that much as they came back to the court with a road win and cover at Tulane earlier this week to make it a 6 game winning streak at the right time of the year.

The Shockers are now 14-4 on the season and have won 9 of their 11 games on their home court.

The Bulls are backsliding right now, as USF comes in with straight up and against the spread losses in 3 straight and in 6 of their last 7 overall.

Big number, but I am laying it today.

Shockers notch another win and cover.

4* WICHITA STATE

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Bob Valentino

My Saturday freebie is the big, big chalk that Arkansas is laying at home against Texas A&M.

Arkansas has wrapped up the second-seed in the upcoming SEC tournament which could make them a little vulnerable to laying this kind of impost, but knowing head coach Eric Musselman never likes to let his foot off the gas pedal makes me think the Hogs will be up for laying down one more regular season beatdown before they get some downtime prior to the conference tourney.

The Razorbacks come into this last game of the regular season riding a 7-game win and cover streak and they are also 15-1 for the season on their home hardwood with a money-making 10-4-1 against the mark in their lined home contests.

Texas A&M has played the least amount of SEC games this season due to COVID-19 pauses as they are only 8-8 on this lost campaign and returned on Wednesday after being idle since January 30th with a 6-point home loss to Miss State.

These teams have not met this season until today and with the Razorbacks averaging 83.2 points per game and the Aggies posting only 63.1 points per game this game sure looks like a major mismatch coming down the pike in Fayetteville this afternoon.

Arkansas to take this one by about 20 points.

3* ARKANSAS

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Mitchell Newman

Round Two of the Duke-North Carolina rivalry as this meeting in Chapel Hill will put an end to the regular season for the Blue Devils and the Tar Heels and my feeling is we are headed for another Over at the Dean Dome tonight.

The Dookies have seen overtime decide their last pair of games and not in a good way, as the Blue Devils have lost both of those games. The one constant for this Coach K coached team has been the offensive flow to their games, as they have played 5 straight and 8 of their last 9 this season Over the posted price. That run includes a meeting with UNC on February 6th at Cameron Indoor Stadium that saw these traditional rivals accumulate 178 total points in a game that landed Over the total by a not-so-close 30 1/2 points!!!!

That Over pushed the series Over run to 3 straight after the previous 6 played between the teams had landed Under.

North Carolina has played their last pair of games Under the total, but they had been Over in 3 straight and 4 of their last 5 games prior starting with their visit to Durham.

Duke is 13-7-1 Over the total for the season as they tote in a 76 points per game average. The Blue Devils are also allowing 72 points per game to be scored against them.

North Carolina scores 74.2 points per game and they do a little better of a job on the defensive end of the court where they are holding opponents to 69.5 points per game.

This game may not end 91-87 like it did the first time around, but I think it is going Over the total still.

5* DUKE-NORTH CAROLINA OVER

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John Martin

Mar 06 '21, 1:00 PM in 47m
NCAA-B | South Florida vs Wichita State
Play on: Wichita State -11 -108 at pinnacle

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Wichita State -11
The Wichita State Shockers are making a run to make the NCAA Tournament. They have gone 6-0 in their last six games overall to improve to 14-4 this season. They won't be taking the South Florida Bulls lightly. And I'm not so sure the Bulls will even show up today. They have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with all three losses by 18 points or more. They lost 47-65 to Temple, 52-98 to Houston and 52-73 to Memphis. It just looks like they are ready for their COVID-riddled season to be over with at this point. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as underdogs. The Shockers are 41-18-1 ATS in their last 60 games against a team with a losing record. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Give me Wichita State.

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Dave Price

Mar 06 '21, 2:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Alabama vs Georgia
Play on: Alabama -8 -103 at pinnacle

Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on Alabama -8
The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide improved to 15-2 in conference play this season with their 70-58 win over Auburn last time out. Now they face a Georgia team that they already beat 115-82 or by 33 points in their first matchup. It's a Georgia team that doesn't play defense, losing 70-91 to South Carolina last time out. They have now yielded 70 or more points in 8 straight games coming in. So it's going to be hard for them to get enough stops to cover this spread against one of the best offensive teams in the country in the Crimson Tide. And Alabama goes from being an 11.5-point home favorite in that first matchup with Georgia to an 8-point road favorite. So I like the price on the Crimson Tide here. Take Alabama.

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Brandon Lee

Mar 06 '21, 2:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Oklahoma State vs West Virginia
Play on: West Virginia -7 -108 at pinnacle

PICK - West Virginia Mountaineers -7
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 618
I'm going to my shot here with West Virginia laying 7-points at home against Oklahoma State. People know that this Mountaineers team is legit, but I still think they are a bit undervalued. West Virginia is 18-7 with 6 of their 7 losses coming by 5-points or fewer. Everyone says Gonzaga and Baylor are the two best teams. They only lost by 5 to Gonzaga on a neutral court and in the only meeting against Baylor they lost in OT at home. Their only two losses since February are OT defeats.
I think playing at home gives West Virginia plenty of motivation here and while I like this Oklahoma State team, I don't love this spot for the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is coming off a massive road game at Baylor on Thursday. It was a good fight, but star freshman Cade Cunningham had to leave the game with an ankle injury.
He's listed as questionable, but I don't see him playing. There's really nothing for Oklahoma State to gain here by playing him and risking him getting hurt more before the NCAA Tournament. In the two games he missed in the regular-season they beat Iowa State, who doesn't have a conference win and lost by 15 at home to Baylor. Give me West Virginia -7!

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Bobby Conn

Mar 06 '21, 3:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | Barcelona FC vs Osasuna
Play on: Barcelona FC -185 at Mirage

1* Free Play on Barcelona FC -185

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Cole Faxon

Mar 06 '21, 3:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | Barcelona FC vs Osasuna
Play on: Barcelona FC -185 at Mirage

FREE PLAY on Barcelona FC -185

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Jimmy Boyd

Mar 06 '21, 3:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Towson vs Elon
Play on: UNDER 134 -109

1* Free Pick on Towson/Elon under 134 -109