Service Plays Sunday 3/14/21

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-13-2021, 11:55 PM

Micah Roberts

NASCAR

1 #22 Joey Logano (15-2) -- He's won at Phoenix twice, including the spring race last season, when he led 60 laps. He came back in the fall and led 125 laps before settling for third place. Logano closed out last season with the 750-horsepower package, finishing third or better in all three races, and then was runner-up with it on the Daytona Road Course.

2 #11 Denny Hamlin (11-2) -- He should have more than two wins in 31 starts at Phoenix because of how well he's always run at Richmond and New Hampshire, which require similar setups. But Hamlin has 14 top-five finishes and 821 laps led. He was third at the Daytona Road Course on Feb. 21.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (11-2) -- He won the 2020 Cup Series championship at Phoenix last season after leading a race-high 153 laps, his first win in 10 series starts there. Elliott led a race-high 93 laps before finishing seventh in the spring. He should be the favorite here. He won the last three races of 2020 using the 750-HP package and led the most laps on the Daytona Road Course three weeks ago before finishing 21st.

4 #2 Brad Keselowski (11-2) -- It's odd he doesn't have any Cup Series wins at Phoenix in his 23 starts, but he has seven top-five finishes and 264 laps led. Keselowski was runner-up last fall and 11th in the spring. He also won races last season with this week's race package at a track similar to Phoenix in regard to setup (Richmond and New Hampshire). A Phoenix win is near, so shop around for the best number.

5 #12 Ryan Blaney (17-1) -- He's the ninth choice to win after the first eight drivers are 8-1 or less, showing how top-heavy William Hill Sportsbook believes this race is, but Blaney does offer some value. He was sixth last fall and third in both 2019 races at Phoenix. He's the third wheel at Team Penske and should be almost as good as the other two.

6 #4 Kevin Harvick (9-2) -- He owns the track record for wins (nine), top-five finishes (18), top-10s (22) and laps led (1,662) over his 36 Cup Series starts. But he hasn't led any laps in three of his last four starts, and his last win at Phoenix was six races ago in 2018.

7 #19 Kyle Busch (7-1) -- He's got three Cup Series wins, 10 Xfinity Series victories and two Truck Series triumphs at Phoenix. In Cup Series action, he has 12 top-five finishes, 22 top-10s and 1,190 laps led in 31 starts. His 10th-place average finish is second behind Harvick's 8.9.

8 #20 Christopher Bell (40-1) -- He finished 17th and 24th at Phoenix last season while driving the No. 95 Toyota but did win a 2018 Xfinity Series race there for good measure. In his first race using the 750-HP package, Bell won at the Daytona Road Course. He might present the best value on the board.

9 #1 Kurt Busch (40-1) -- He's been racing at Phoenix since he was a teenager and has one win in 36 Cup Series starts, along with seven top-five finishes and 817 laps led. Best of all, he's had three top-fives in his last four starts using the 750-HP package. Busch was 12th at Phoenix last fall and sixth in the spring. He's not a bad investment this week.

10 #5 Kyle Larson (8-1) -- He has been sixth or better in six of his 13 starts at Phoenix, including each of the last four. He comes off a win at Las Vegas using the 550-HP package but should be fast this week based on Jimmie Johnson's fifth-place finish at Phoenix in the fall. Larson has all the 2020 No. 48 equipment for his No. 5 car this season.

11 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (13-2) -- He should have a win on this track already but doesn't in 30 Cup Series starts, with a best of runner-up in 2019 - a year in which he won on the similar track at Richmond twice. Truex was seventh at the Daytona Road Course while using this week's race package.

12 #24 William Byron (25-1) -- He's averaged a 13th-place finish in six Cup Series starts at Phoenix, which includes three top-10s. He won an Xfinity Series race there in 2017. This week's race package was great for Hendrick Motorsports teammate Elliott last season but didn't translate as well to the rest of the organization.

13 #10 Aric Almirola (60-1) -- His best outing this season was 17th at the Daytona Road Course while using this week's package. He's finished 30th or worse in the other three races. A rough start for what is supposed to be a team ready to take on new heights. Look for a season-best performance this week. Almirola has five top-10s in his last seven starts at Phoenix, including a pair of personal-best fourth-place finishes.

14 #34 Michael McDowell (300-1) -- The Phoenix native has made 20 Cup Series starts on his home track with a best finish of 16th (twice) and an average of 31st. But he's never had a car as good as he will this week. His eighth-place at the Daytona Road Course showed his team is dialed in with the 750-HP package.

15 #43 Erik Jones (250-1) -- I like how he battled at the Daytona Road Course (14th place) while using this week's race package. He's also had some great moments at Phoenix, such as winning Truck Series races in 2013 and 2014. Jones' best Cup Series finish there was fourth place in 2017.

16 #21 Matt DiBenedetto (60-1) -- He needs to show well this season because he's out after 2021, as Austin Cindric will take over the ride. His 16th-place last week at Las Vegas was his best in four races after finishing 28th or worse in his first three starts. The positive note is that DiBenedetto was 13th and eighth in the two races at Phoenix last season while using this week's package.

17 #23 Bubba Wallace (100-1) -- He has the goods and financing, so now it's up to him to produce. After using three different packages in four races thus far, he's failing miserably. The 750-HP package and the layout at Phoenix should help him excel. Wallace's best finish there was 10th during his rookie year in 2018. But he's not bettable yet in anything. He'll come around as his team gets some reps in together.

18 #48 Alex Bowman (30-1) -- He didn't get the No. 48 leftovers from Jimmie Johnson, who was solid in the races using the 750-HP package, but he is racing on his home track. However, his best run at Phoenix was sixth place after leading 194 laps from the pole while substituting for Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the No. 88 in 2016. The Tucson native hasn't finished better than 13th in six races since.

19 #17 Chris Buescher (200-1) -- He's had top-20 finishes in each of his last five Cup Series starts at Phoenix, the last two while driving for Roush Fenway Racing. In his first race using this package in 2021, he was 11th at the Daytona Road Course.

20 #6 Ryan Newman (125-1) -- In his 36 Cup Series starts at Phoenix, he has two wins - the last coming in 2017. He also has 10 top-five finishes and 242 laps led. Newman has been racing at Phoenix since his USAC days in the mid-1990s, when he won just about every award given for excellence.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 07:12 AM

Larry Hartstein

OHIO ST. @ ILLINOIS | 03/14 | 3:30 PM EDT
ILLINOIS -5.5
ANALYSIS: The Illini outclassed Iowa on Saturday for their sixth straight win. They're 11-3 ATS in their past 14 games (13-1 SU). One big key has been the development of freshman guard Andre Curbelo, who's averaging 14.4 points over his last five games. Ohio State has won three tight games in three days and could run out of gas here. Lay the points with the surging Illini.

+2643 194-152-8 IN LAST 354 CBB ATS PICKS
12:34 AM

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 07:12 AM

Stephen Oh

LOYOLA-MD. @ COLGATE | 03/14 | 12:00 PM EDT
COLGATE -9.5
ANALYSIS: Colgate has been on fire in the Patriot League Tournament. In two tournament games, the Raiders have averaged 91.0 points and won by 19.0 a game. In the semifinal, they broke a Patriot League single-game tournament scoring record with 105 points in a victory over Bucknell. And on Sunday they play for a NCAA Tournament bid against Loyola at home. Everything points to Colgate. My model has the Raiders covering 70 percent of the time and winning by 17.

YESTERDAY 11:09 PM

PORTLAND @ MINNESOTA | 03/14 | 8:00 PM EDT
PORTLAND -5
ANALYSIS: These teams played on Saturday night, and the Blazers won by four (and just missed covering) despite Minnesota shooting 51.9 percent and outrebounding Portland by 21. When the Timberwolves regress toward the mean on Sunday, Portland should get an easy cover. My simulations say the Blazers cover 64 percent of the time and win by 11 so you're getting strong value at this number.

+341 10-6 IN LAST 16 POR ATS PICKS
+180 4-2 IN LAST 6 MIN ATS PICKS
YESTERDAY 10:58 PM

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 08:26 AM

Kenny White

LSU @ ALABAMA | 03/14 | 1:00 PM EDT
LSU +5.5
ANALYSIS: This is a revenge game for LSU. The Crimson Tide beat the Tigers both times during the regular season, by 30 points at LSU and by 18 at Alabama. LSU is on a 7-2 run straight up and ATS since the last meeting. I think you will see a vastly improved Tigers team in this matchup. Alabama has played well at home this year, going 9-4 ATS, but the Crimson Tide are 6-9 ATS away from home. My numbers have Alabama by two.

+580 8-2 IN LAST 10 CBB ATS PICKS
1:45 AM

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 08:26 AM

PickWise Sports NHL

3* Minnesota -190

1* Minnesota under 5.5

2* Dallas -135

1* Dallas Over 5.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 08:52 AM

John Morrison Tony Chau Champ
NBA System

San Antonio Spurs {A** bet-

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 08:54 AM

Root

Reserve Houston

Pinnacle Alabama

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 09:10 AM

Gus Augustine

40 Dime
Winner # 11 of 16

Big 10 Bankroll Builder

Illinois -5.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 09:13 AM

Mike Barner

MIAMI @ ORLANDO | 03/14 | 7:00 PM EDT
MIAMI -6.5
ANALYSIS: The bad news for the Heat is that Bam Adebayo (knee) will miss his fourth straight game. The good news is, they won each of the three previous contests he's missed, including an eight-point triumph versus Orlando. The Magic have just been decimated by injuries, leaving them without Evan Fournier (groin), Aaron Gordon (ankle) and Cole Anthony (ribs) for this contest. On top of that, Terrence Ross (knee) is listed as questionable. This game could get out of hand in a hurry.

+825 38-27 IN LAST 65 NBA ATS PICKS
+1650 22-5 IN LAST 27 MIA ATS PICKS
+753 23-14-1 IN LAST 38 ORL ATS PICKS
9:49 AM

Note: This line was -8 at 9:49 AM

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 09:14 AM

XS Sports Picks Sunday

Alabama Under 157.5 (1pm)

Houston Under 136.5 (3:15pm)

Illinois -6 (3:30pm)

Illinois Over 148.5 (3:30pm)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 09:14 AM

XS Sports Picks Sunday

Golden State +6.5 (4pm)

Minnesota +5 (8pm)

Chicago -3.5 (9pm)

LA Clippers -6 (9pm)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 09:14 AM

XS Sports Picks Sunday

$3000 Minnesota -1.5 +135 (2pm)

$3000 Carolina -1.5 +111 (5pm)

$3000 Carolina Over 5.5 -116 (5pm)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 09:15 AM

XS Sports Picks Sunday (NCAA FB)

Murry State -4.5 (2:30pm)

Murry State Under 48 (2:30pm)

SE Missouri State -5.5 (3pm)

SE Missouri State Over 46.5 (3pm)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-14-2021, 09:47 AM

Worlds Worst Picker

Illinois
LSU

Fade is:
Ohio St
Alabama

Service Plays Sunday 3/14/21

Service Plays Sunday 3/14/21

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