Monday 3/15/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Event: (1) Nashville Predators at (2) Tampa Bay Lightning
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 15, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (-120)
2 Nashville at Tampa Bay
In 5x5 G+-/60 the Preds rank 29th and the Lightning 4th. In xG/60 we find Nashville +0.01 and Tampa Bay +0.26. Much closer than what the actual results show.
On the Power Play Tampa Bay ranks 3rd in G+-/60 and the Preds 20th. In xG/60 we find Nashville +5.67 and the Lightning +6.75. A strong advantage for Tampa.
Looking at the Penalty Kill you can’t get much more lopsided as the Predators rank 31st, and the Lightning 2nd. In xG/60 Nashville is -7.11, and the Lightning -3.83. A whopping advantage for the host. Let’s lay the 1 1/2 goals with the host.
TAMPA BAY -1 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (5) Vancouver Canucks at (6) Ottawa Senators
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 15, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: 1P Total Over 1.5 (-120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Event: (509) Indiana Pacers at (510) Denver Nuggets
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: March 15, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Denver Nuggets -5.0 (-110)
509 Indiana Pacers at 510 Denver Nuggets -5, 226


When healthy, the Denver Nuggets have a complete and elite offense. Like most Association squads, there is typically one player difficult to replace, and for Denver, that is Nikola Jokic (27.1 ppg, 11 RPG, 8.6 pg).

Denver is bigger, stronger, and longer than is Indiana. When the Pacers scuffle to stay in touch with their opponent on a game night most times, it creates the Pacers' lack of energy defending their glass.

The return of the uber-talented Caris LeVert is a positive for Indiana. LeVert was able to play 25 minutes and contribute 13 points and seven rebounds in the Pacers' victory over Phoenix on Saturday night. LeVert will need a handful of work before he is back in game shape. The altitude of Ball Arena keeps LeVert from excelling. Look for Denver to turn up the tempo against the road-weary Pacers and win the game because of their size and skill-set favor in the paint. Back the home team Nuggets and lay the five points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 5	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Allowance • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $11,300 • Post: 2:36P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FAST RUNNING JET: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. JESS BLUE GAME: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style desi gnation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. THE BLUES TRAIN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JLA PISTOLPACKINJACK: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	FAST RUNNING JET	2/1	9/2
5	JESS BLUE GAME	9/2	5/1
2	THE BLUES TRAIN	3/1	8/1
7	JLA PISTOLPACKINJACK	12/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DESPERADEAUX	1	8/1	Fast	68	61	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	THE BLUES TRAIN	2	3/1	Average	75	69	3.8	0.0	0.0
3	JET BLACK CORONA	3	12/1	Slow	59	65	6.9	0.0	0.0
4	FAST RUNNING JET	4	2/1	Average	85	77	4.2	0.0	0.0
5	JESS BLUE GAME	5	9/2	Fast	78	76	2.5	0.0	0.0
6	RKM JET BLACK PERRY	6	6/1	Average	75	68	5.4	0.0	0.0
7	JLA PISTOLPACKINJACK	7	12/1	Fast	79	63	2.9	0.0	0.0
8	ANGEL PRIZE	8	15/1	Fast	68	59	1.9	0.0	0.0
9	AJS FAST STREAK	9	15/1	Slow	64	52	6.4	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 3	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $21,800 • Post: 1:40P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. FANGIRL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FANGIRL: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its fir st and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HONORABLE MEMORY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	FANGIRL	8/5	5/2
7	HONORABLE MEMORY	5/2	9/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	FANGIRL	2	8/5	Front-runner	88	94	94.2	84.4	82.4
6	SIERRA DIAMOND	6	12/1	Front-runner	62	64	78.6	47.4	31.9
7	HONORABLE MEMORY	7	5/2	Front-runner	77	82	78.2	77.4	73.4
4	LICHITA	4	6/1	Stalker	72	71	85.8	68.2	58.2
5	DARK TEMPTRESS	5	7/2	Stalker	83	77	68.6	64.0	56.0
8	TRUST IN ME	8	20/1	Trailer	83	63	49.8	64.8	55.3
3	SAYSO	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	80	76	57.0	63.0	56.0
1	SHE'S A TROOPER	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	59	45.1	43.8	30.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 54

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 THE THIMBLE 7/2
# 2 CALLTHEWOLFE 8/5
# 9 BEAUX VICTORY 9/2

THE THIMBLE should be supported as the bet in here. Has run quite well when running a dirt sprint race. Recently Pompell has been hot which may give the edge to this gelding. Earned a reliable speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. CALLTHEWOLFE - Larrosa has well above average dividends at this distance/surface. Must be given a shot for this event if only for the respectable Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last contest. BEAUX VICTORY - Has respectable early pace and will most likely fare very well against this group of horses.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 4:12pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 58

Rating:

#7 ON THE VERGE (ML=6/1)


ON THE VERGE - Mathis drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more data to think this horse is in a good spot at this level. Is ranked at the top in earnings per start. A dominant outing in this event can increase the lifetime total.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN (ML=9/5), #1 MESANGE (ML=4/1), #4 SARAH'S STAR (ML=5/1),

MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN - Feb 17th is the last time we've seen this filly around. Have to be a little bit leery. MESANGE - Difficult to put your cash on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as frequently as this thoroughbred does. SARAH'S STAR - Difficult to put any cash on this filly on the front end. Likes to finish in the money though. In the last race this vulnerable equine finished fourth. Doesn't look good for her chances this time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 ON THE VERGE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 62

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 CARMELTINI 3/1
# 2 PASATIME 5/2
# 3 TAYLOR'S BELLE 8/1

CARMELTINI looks to be a competitive contender. Have to think this entrant will make a good showing following the quick return. Seems to have a solid class edge based on the most recent company kept. Has recorded reliable Speed Figures in dirt route races in the past. PASATIME - She has been moving very well lately while recording sharp Equibase speed figs. It's a good signal that Dominguez is using Castillo on this horse. TAYLOR'S BELLE - Crowell is trying to win with this one by bringing her back so soon. Has to be given a shot based on the competitive Equibase Speed Fig recorded in the last affair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,800 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#7 HONORABLE MEMORY (ML=5/2)
#6 SIERRA DIAMOND (ML=12/1)


HONORABLE MEMORY - This jock and trainer have a fantastic winning pct when they join forces. Jockey jumped on this filly's back for the 1st ride on February 10th. Should be in tune with the horse even better this time. This filly is obviously on the improve with speed figs of 71, 76, 80 last three out. Filly scored her last race here on February 10th as a shipper. I think she looks like a winner once again. SIERRA DIAMOND - Rounding her way back into form. Each of her finish positions is getting better in her recent starts. This thoroughbred coming off a sharp performance in the last month or so is a strong challenger in my book. Horse has improved at least two speed figure points in last 2 races. I look for that positive trend to continue in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 FANGIRL (ML=8/5), #5 DARK TEMPTRESS (ML=7/2), #4 LICHITA (ML=6/1),

FANGIRL - Can't wager on this racer in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint race lately. I think this morning-line favorite needs this race under her belt to start getting back into shape. DARK TEMPTRESS - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint contests lately. Unlikely to see her doing it this time out either. This filly recorded a speed fig in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race. LICHITA - Doesn't look inspiring to me after the lack of any sort of closing ability on February 26th.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 HONORABLE MEMORY to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	7 with 6 with [4,5,8] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Red Dog Sports

Mar 15 '21, 4:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | SPAL vs Pisa
Play on: Draw +208 at pinnacle

draw +208
SPAL 1
Pisa 1
The free soccer play takes place in Italy on Monday. The total is set at 2 so they are expecting a low score and I think it ends 1-1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Mar 15 '21, 4:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | Liverpool vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Play on: Liverpool -146 at pinnacle

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Monday Free Pick Liverpool Money Line -145 @ Wolverhampton @ 4 ET - I know Liverpool has struggled recently but they have deserved better in terms of some of their goal-scoring chances not being cashed in. Also, they are off a mid-week win over RB Leipzig last week in Champions League action and I look for Liverpool to build off that 2-0 win with another victory here. Wolverhampton has but 9 wins in their 28 matches this season and also has a -8 goal differential in their last 4 meetings with the visitors in this one. It is now or never for Liverpool if they are serious about making a move up the table in Premier League action and I look for the win over RB Leipzig to be used as a springboard in that regard. Free Pick LIVERPOOL Money Line -145

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Bryan Leonard

Mar 15 '21, 4:08 PM in 2h
NHL | Predators vs Lightning
Play on: Lightning -1½ -119 at pinnacle

2 Nashville at Tampa Bay
In 5x5 G+-/60 the Preds rank 29th and the Lightning 4th. In xG/60 we find Nashville +0.01 and Tampa Bay +0.26. Much closer than what the actual results show.
On the Power Play Tampa Bay ranks 3rd in G+-/60 and the Preds 20th. In xG/60 we find Nashville +5.67 and the Lightning +6.75. A strong advantage for Tampa.
Looking at the Penalty Kill you can’t get much more lopsided as the Predators rank 31st, and the Lightning 2nd. In xG/60 Nashville is -7.11, and the Lightning -3.83. A whopping advantage for the host. Let’s lay the 1 1/2 goals with the host.
TAMPA BAY -1 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Mar 15 '21, 4:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Dodgers vs Rockies
Play on: Rockies +143 at Draft Kings

1* Free Pick on Rockies +143

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Cole Faxon

Mar 15 '21, 4:10 PM in 2h
MLB | Reds vs Angels
Play on: Angels -152 at Draft Kings

FREE PLAY on Angels -152