Saturday 3/20/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Saturday, March 20: Eddie Olczyk's Best Bets

March 19, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk

Handicapper Eddie Olczyk is back for another round of Saturday spot plays, including the main event at Fair Grounds for the season, the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. His key plays include a fast start to the Santa Anita card and the early pick five.


FAIR GROUNDS, RACE 6 (2:42PM ET) // MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
EDDIE'S PICK: #5 SHALDAG (6/1)

The ‘other’ Asmussen entrant as compared to 5-2 morning line favorite Hidden Enemy. In 3 career turf races, he’s started from an outside post position in all 3. He’s drawn better today, and I’m hoping for a run similar to the one he had at Kentucky Downs Downs last September. The price will be right. Win bet.


SANTA ANITA, RACE 1 (4:00PM ET) // MAIDEN CLAIMING
EDDIE'S PICK: #2 NEW DRAMA (4/1)

Trainer Tim Yakteen has it going really well currently, and his numbers second start off after layoffs of 6 months or more are outstanding recently. New Drama had a bad post in last start, a speed-and-fade in that race off the brutal post. Thinking that he needed it, though a 5-year-old maiden with only 3 career starts a concern. But he can make one run into a race that should be quick. I’ll take my shot with a win bet.


FAIR GROUNDS, RACE 14 (6:44PM ET) // LOUISIANA DERBY
EDDIE'S PICK: #4 PROXY (7/2)

The added distance from the Lecomte and Risen Star will help. Proxy gets blinkers on, and I’m hoping to save some ground this time, unlike last race. He should find speed to track. Johnny V should be able to rate a bit and follow #2 Rightandjust. Trainer Michael Stidham is on a roll all over the country. Win bet.

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Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 3/19/21

March 19, 2021

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

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Golden Gate – Third Race – Post time: 2:28 PT
1-Into the Wind (7/2)

The even money morning line favorite Made In Karoo will be tough to beat let’s go for a better price with this lightly-raced Southern California shipper. The daughter of Big Blue Kitten showed some ability in her debut over the all-weather surface at Turfway Park last month and then was out of her element when badly overmatched in straight maiden company at Santa Anita. This maiden $8,000 claiming field should be within her range, and from her favorable rail draw she’s guaranteed a good ground-saving trip. If she’s going to be any kind of race horse, this would be a good place to show it, so at 7/2 on the morning line she offers a bit of gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

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Santa Anita – Eighth Race – Post time: 4:53 PT
3-Alexander’s Dream (8-1)

Sophomore maiden finally gets a chance to stretch out around two turns and we suspect the J. Bonde-trained colt will make the most of the opportunity. Bred for turf and displaying improvement in his first try on the sod last month, the J. Bonde-trained colt finished with interest to be a good third while earning by far a career top speed figure. He’s worked well since so another forward move is likely, and projects to draft into a comfortable second flight, ground-saving position and then have every chance. There’s good long shot value here at anywhere near his 8-1 on the morning line

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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 3/20/21

March 20, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report


RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 3-Lalic

Forecast: Lalic performed better than expected when 13-1 in her debut in a similar grass sprint here last month, pressing the pace but then weakening late to wind up third while appearing to need the outing. She makes a major jockey switch to F. Prat, shows two easy workouts since raced, and projects to settle into a nice stalking position outside two committed speed types and then, in a field lacking in effective closers, have every chance from the quarter pole home. We wouldn’t accept much less than her 2-1 morning line in the win pool but in the rolling exotics we’ll take a stand and make her a single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-None Above the Law; 4-Club Cal

Forecast: None Above the Law is the 4/5 morning line favorite and obviously will offer no value at that price but the P. Miller-trained gelding should be hard to beat as a first-time Lasix user, switching to F. Prat, and with no Life is Good to contend with today. His runner-up effort in the California Cup Derby two runs back behind Big Fish while four lengths clear of the rest beats this field. Club Cal might be worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up. The Clubhouse Ride gelding adds blinkers for the first time, returns to the main track, has worked well recently and was stakes-placed two races back when a close third in the King Glorious S. at Los Alamitos. If he improves with the hood on, the C. Kelley-trained gelding could make a bit of run for it.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Armour Plate; 6-Invictatus

Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a below average restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler. Invictatatus, freshened for a couple of months, drops well below his claim level while stretching out again. He’s worked well enough in recent weeks to indicate he’s ready for a top effort, but with speed drawn inside him he’ll need to show that he can stalk and pounce rather than be on the lead. On pure numbers, he’s good enough to win. Armour Plate is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his good rail post position after missing by a neck over this course and distance vs. similar foes in his most recent start. He’s just 1-for-21 in his career but at least that win came over the local lawn, and with F. Prat staying aboard the son of Into Mischief projects as the one to fear most.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:48 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Thrive

Forecast: Thrive tipped his hand in his debut when finding his best stride too late to be third in a similar state-bred maiden sprint last month and today gets an extra half-furlong to work with while adding blinkers and retaining F. Prat. Furthermore, the M. McCarthy barn has off-the-charts stats with the second-time starter angle (27% with a massive ROI), so we suspect this son of Competitive Edge will graduate today at what surely will be a shorter price than his morning line of 8/5. He’s a logical rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:22 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Red King; 3-Ward ‘n Jerry; 7-Tartini

Forecast: This starter’s allowance turf marathon looks more like a graded stakes race, with the main players eligible for having started for a $50,000 tag at least once since 2019. Red King, winner of the Del Mar H.-G2 last September, returns for trainer P. D’Amato (powerful with the layoff angle) and has a history of firing a big shot fresh. He’s worked well enough to be fit and ready and is a five-time winner (from 12 starts) over the Santa Anita turf course. Ward ‘n Jerry was fully extended to win a softer starter’s allowance event last month as the odds-on favorite and probably will need to pick it up a bit today to repeat. The eight-year-old gelding, just like Red King, has a career record of five wins from 12 outings over this turf course, retains F. Prat, and should draft into an easy stalking position in a race projects to have very slow splits. Though he doesn’t need the lead to win, Tartini may inherit the role as the pacesetter. He proved hard to down given that type of trip when narrowly worn down by Ward ‘n Jerry last month, and a similar effort today should at least land him in the frame.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Street Behavior

Forecast: There’s really nothing to trust in this $16,000 middle distance router for older horses, so if you can afford to do so, spread the race in rolling exotic play and perhaps even use ‘em all if your budget allows. It’s either that or try to identify a potential single. Street Behavior, third in a similar spot last time out and today getting a break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer, projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, stalking journey and then have his chance to grind away when the pressure is turned on. A nice recent training track drill shows he’s holding his form and based strictly on speed figures the S. Miyadi-trained gelding looks capable of winning at this level.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Acclimate; 2-Masteroffoxhounds; 3-United

Forecast: We’ll pass this year’s edition of the San Luis Rey Stakes-G3 but use three in our rolling exotics. United returns to his favorite turf course, has been trained to be plenty fit in his first outing since the BC Turf-G1 last November, and seems sure to fire a big shot. However, even when he wins, the veteran son of Giant’s Causeway always makes it close. Masteroffoxhounds seeks her third straight score after a sharp win in the 10-furlong San Marcos S.-G2 here last month. He’ll likely track Acclimate throughout and then go after him at the top of the stretch, just like last time. The latter will make the running, and although he’s winless since scoring in gate-to-wire fashion in the Del Mar Handicap-G2 way back in the summer of 2019 the Acclamation gelding take them as far as he can and deserves a certain amount of respect.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:55 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-El Diablo Rojo; 4-Fratelli; 6-Curry

Forecast: Curry had no excuse when failing at 40 cents on the dollar in a similar first-level allowance sprint last month other than perhaps needing the race. The lightly-raced gelding (just four career starts) is extremely fast on speed figures when he’s on his game, so the K. Headley-trained gelding certainly must be considered the one to beat again, especially at this slightly shorter trip. Fratelli is intriguing in that he’s a first-off-the-claim play for P. Miller (lethal with this angle) and is protected in a sign of confidence while switching to F. Prat. He’s certain to improve, the only question is how much. El Diablo Rojo, back sprinting where he belongs, is much slower on pure numbers than he needs to be to win but will be running on strongly late and could make some noise if a pace meltdown materializes. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Curry.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-No Foolery Here; 9-Hudson Ridge; 10-Eagle Chief

Forecast: Hudson Ridge is making steady improvement for B. Baffert and may be ready to graduate in this moderate maiden special weight turf miler for 3-year-olds. A closing and willing fourth with the help of the race flow on the main track last time out, the son of American Pharoah seems set to produce another forward move while returning to what we suspect will prove to be his preferred surface. He’ll get the patient ride he apparently wants from D. Van Dyke. Eagle Chief, in the frame in his last pair with speed figures that make him a major player, continues to look good in the morning and appears quite dangerous stretching out for the first time. The J. Sadler-trained son of Into Mischief should be on or near the lead throughout. No Foolery Here, an even fourth in his debut in the same productive turf sprint that Eagle Chief exits, has trained well at San Luis Rey Downs in the interim and is bred to handle the extra ground. Here’s another plus: trainer R. Baltas has terrific stats with the second-time starter angle.
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AI Picks Triple Crown Preps: Louisiana Derby

March 18, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

This Saturday’s lone Triple Crown prep race toward the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes will be Fair Grounds’ Louisiana Derby. To help you tackle the 1-3/16 miles regional final in New Orleans, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look into the data of the 8 contenders.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Fair Grounds // Grade 2 Louisiana Derby // Race 14 // 6:44 PM ET

#6 Mandaloun // 30%W // 51%P // 65%S
#7 Midnight Bourbon // 18%W // 36%P // 53%S
#5 Hot Rod Charlie // 14%W // 32%P // 48%S
#4 Proxy // 14%W // 29%P // 44%S
#2 Rightandjust // 8%W // 17%P // 33%S
#8 O Besos // 6%W // 13%P // 21%S
#1 Starrininmydreams // 5%W // 11%P // 18%S
#3 Run Classic // 5%W // 11%P // 18%S

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Race of the Week: Hurricane Bertie Stakes at Gulfstream

March 18, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$100,000 GRADE 3 HURRICANE BERTIE STAKES
Saturday, March 20, 2021

The Lead:
Sprinters share the headlines Saturday at Gulfstream Park with a pair of turf dash stakes and the main event, the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie on the main track. The Melody of Colors (Race 7) and Texas Glitter (Race 10) on turf will bookend the Hurricane Bertie, which is Race 10 of 12. All 3 stakes will be part of Saturday's Rainbow 6.

Field Depth:
The field of 8 is led by Grade 2 winner and Grade 3-placed PACIFIC GALE. SLAM DUNK is Grade 1-placed, while SOUND MACHINE is a listed stakes winner and Grade 3-placed. SAGUARO ROW is a listed stakes winner. The remaining quartet will be out to prove its stakes ability.

Pace:
CORY GAL has made the lead in 8 of her last 10 starts and knows only 1 way to go. SONAR, SLAM DUNK and ROYAL MEGHAN should all be in pursuit of what looks to be a plenty-fast pace. The finishers will have a chance to deliver late if they fire, especially given the 6-1/2 furlong distance often conspires to trip up the speed.

Our Eyes:
PACIFIC GALE rallied to win the Grade 2 Inside Information Stakes last time at 16-1 odds and snapped an 0-17 streak in the process. But her turnaround should not have been unsuspected. Trainer John Kimmel's barn has turned a corner in 2021, winning 25% since then with a 37% flat-bet profit. If you're wondering about the whole "I missed the wedding (at 16-1), so I won't attend the funeral (at a shorter price)," be sure to check out my Monday Myths series at Xpressbet.com. We studied that theory and found out that horses who win at big prices and return while bet down next time actually are very good bets with positive results. As surmised in that blog post, don't let a grudge get you beat twice.

SOUND MACHINE had her only real career misfire in the Inside Information. Her recent workout with mammoth Florida Derby contender Collaborate was a positive move in the right direction, as seen at XBTV.com. She was outfinished late, but that was to be expected against that rising star. She's a course and distance winner at 6-1/2 furlongs in last year's Glitter Woman.

SLAM DUNK, third in the 2019 Frizette, has been a challenge to keep healthy. The $460,000 daughter of top sire Into Mischief scored over the track and distance Feb. 21 in allowance company. Shug McGaughey turns to Julien Leparoux with Jose Ortiz at Fair Grounds for stakes engagements. Her last victory was fast enough to put her in the mix if she can replicate it.

SAGUARO ROW makes her first start for trainer Kent Sweezey after departing the Mike Stidham string in New York. She's improving in 2 starts since missing more than 9 months. The concern is that the worst race of her career came in her lone Gulfstream try. But sixth in the 2019 Princess Rooney was a long time ago.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
PACIFIC GALE gets the pace set-up to deliver a second-straight rallying effort.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
SONAR was 14-1 when upsetting rivals CORY GAL and SOUND MACHINE in allowance company, and she has a bit of pace versatility in comparison to the other speed-types.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win PACIFIC GALE.

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Jon White's Louisiana Derby Picks, Plus Kentucky Derby Top 101

March 17, 2021 | By Jon White

This Saturday’s Grade II Louisiana Derby, a 1 3/16-mile test at New Orleans’ Fair Grounds, is the first race this year to have 170 points up for grabs toward a starting berth in the Grade I, $3 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1. The Louisiana Derby offers 100 points to the winner, 40 to second, 20 to third and 10 to fourth.

As for my selections last week for the Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, I went against 6-5 favorite Caddo River by making Concert Tour my top pick. Concert Tour won by 4 1/4 lengths as the 17-10 second choice in the wagering.

In late January, I began making selections in terms of this country’s races offering points toward the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby.

Of the 13 such races, I have picked the winner in eight of them, as noted below:

Date Race (Selection) Finish, $2 win payoff if applicable

01-30-21 Holy Bull (Greatest Honour) WON, $7.60
01-30-21 Robert B. Lewis (Medina Spirit), WON, $4.00
02-06-21 Sam F. Davis (Candy Man Rocket), WON, $8.20
02-06-21 Withers (Donegal Bay), finished 7th
02-13-21 Risen Star (Senor Buscador), finished 5th
02-13-21 El Camino Real Derby (Rombauer), WON, $4.40
02-26-21 Battaglia Memorial (Gretzky the Great), finished 3rd
02-27-21 Southwest (Essential Quality), WON, $3.80
02-27-21 Fountain of Youth (Greatest Honor), WON, $4.00
03-06-21 Gotham (Freedom Fighter), finished 4th
03-06-21 Tampa Bay Derby (Hidden Stash), finished 2nd
03-06-21 Life Is Good, WON, $3.00
03-13-21 Concert Tour, WON, $5.40

LOUISIANA DERBY SELECTIONS

My selections for the Louisiana Derby are below:

1. Proxy
2. Mandaloun
3. Hot Rod Charlie
4. Midnight Bourbon

The Louisiana Derby has attracted a field of eight. Three of the entrants are on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week: Mandaloun is No. 5, Hot Rod Charlie is No. 7 and Proxy is No. 10.

Why am I picking Proxy to win the Louisiana Derby even though he ranks lower than Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie on my Top 10? The Top 10 to a large extent is based on what a horse has done. Up to this point, Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie have done more than Proxy.

I also am making Proxy my top pick in the Louisiana Derby because I believe he offers wagering value vis-a-vis Mandaloun in this race. Mandaloun is the 8-5 morning-line favorite. Proxy is listed at 7-2.

Mandaloun is a prime example of how a horse can show improvement with the addition of blinkers. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt finished third as a 4-5 favorite in the Grade III Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 16. Midnight Bourbon won, while Proxy ran second.

Brad Cox, the Eclipse Award-winning trainer of 2020, decided to add blinkers to Mandaloun’s equipment for the Grade II Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 13. Mandaloun won by 1 1/4 lengths as a 2-1 favorite. Proxy finished second, while Midnight Bourbon ended up third.

This time it’s trainer Michael Stidham who is adding blinkers to Proxy’s equipment. In Proxy’s first published workout after the Risen Star, the Kentucky-bred Tapit colt worked four furlongs in a bullet :47.00. It was the fastest of 40 Fair Grounds works at that distance on that occasion. That, to me, strongly suggests that Proxy will be focused on the task at hand in the Louisiana Derby.

Micheline, a half-sister to Proxy, is a daughter of the multiple Grade I winner Panty Raid. Just last Saturday, Micheline won the Grade II Hillsborough Stakes on the grass at Tampa Bay Downs for Stidham.

And, yes, Micheline wore blinkers last Saturday. Stidham has said Micheline improved after blinkers were added to her equipment. In the filly’s first race with blinkers, she won an allowance/optional claiming race at Tampa Bay Downs on Dec. 20, 2019.

Last Oct. 10 at Keeneland, Micheline demonstrated that she certainly is a quality filly when she finished second to Harvey’s Lil Goil in the Grade I Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.

As for Hot Rod Charlie, who resides at Doug O’Neill’s Santa Anita barn, he will try to invade New Orleans and come away with a Louisiana Derby victory. Just last Saturday, a Southern California shipper, Concert Tour, won the Rebel.

Hot Rod Charlie is yet another example of how the addition of blinkers can produce dramatic improvement. The Kentucky-bred Oxbow colt could not finish better than third in his first three career starts without blinkers.

When racing with blinkers, Hot Rod Charlie won a maiden race at Santa Anita, then ran second at odds of 94-1 in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland, then finished a close third in the Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.

Midnight Bourbon certainly should not be taken lightly Saturday. He won the Lecomte by one length for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen when defeating both Proxy and Mandaloun. Midnight Bourbon subsequently ran third in the Risen Star.

Can Midnight Bourbon rebound and win the Louisiana Derby? That absolutely is not out of the question.

CONCERT TOUR MAKES LEAP ON MY DERBY TOP 10

In the wake of his sparkling win in the Rebel, Concert Tour leaps to No. 3 in my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after being No. 6 last week. Also, Proxy debuts at No. 10 prior to this Saturday’s Louisiana Derby. Caddo River drops out of the Top 10.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Life Is Good
2. Essential Quality
3. Concert Tour
4. Greatest Honour
5. Mandaloun
6. Medina Spirit
7. Hot Rod Charlie
8. Spielberg
9. Keepmeinmind
10. Proxy

In a post-Rebel report written by Robert Yates and posted on Oaklawn Park’s website, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was quoted as saying: “To me, it was kind of an American Pharoah-type run. He was doing it with ease, with plenty left.”

American Pharoah splashed home a 6 1/4-length winner on a sloppy track in his 2015 debut. He would go on to win the Arkansas Derby prior to a Triple Crown sweep that ended a 37-year drought in the coveted series for 3-year-olds.

Last Saturday, Concert Tour began from post 7. Caddo River broke from post 1.

Concert Tour, ridden by Joel Rosario, seized the lead at once. When Concert Tour drew clear going into the clubhouse turn, Florent Geroux moved Caddo River off the rail and to the outside of Concert Tour.

Generally, it is preferable to race in the clear to the outside of a rival. But Caddo River was difficult to handle due to being quite headstrong while pressing the pace outside Concert Tour. Meanwhile, Concert Turn was sailing along on the lead through the early stages while rating kindly for Rosario.

It was evident turning for home that Caddo River was in deep water. While Rosario was sitting chilly on Concert Tour, Geroux was pumping away on Caddo River and not getting much response.

In upper stretch, while Caddo River was retreating to eventually finish fifth, Concert Tour drew away without being asked to sport a four-length lead at the eighth pole. With Rosario repeatedly looking back in the final furlong, Concert Tour cruised home to remain undefeated while completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.18.

A son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Concert Tour has had a career so far that eerily mirrors that of the Baffert-trained Nadal.

Nadal and Concert Tour both won a Santa Anita maiden sprint as a 3-year-old at first asking in January. Both subsequently won Santa Anita’s seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes. And both then made it three wins in as many career starts by taking the Rebel.

After Nadal’s Rebel victory, he won a division of the Grade I Arkansas Derby on May 2. That turned out to be the final start of his career. It was announced on May 28 that Nadal had been retired from racing as a result of a condylar fracture in his left front leg following a four-furlong workout in :48.80 that morning at Santa Anita.

Finishing second in this year’s $1 million Rebel was the Baffert-trained Hozier, who was making his stakes debut. Big Lake finished third in the field of eight.

For Baffert, this was his eighth Rebel victory (Lookin At Lucky in 2010, The Factor in 2011, Secret Circle in 2012, Hoppertunity in 2014, American Pharoah in 2015, Cupid in 2016, Nadal in 2020 and Concert Tour in 2021).

REBEL WINNER TIES CAREER-BEST BEYER

Concert Tour was credited with a 94 Beyer Speed Figure for his Rebel triumph. The 94 tied his career-best Beyer. He also recorded a 94 in the San Vicente.

Keep in mind, though, the Beyer figure-making team does not take into account how easily a horse wins. The way I look at it, when a horse wins as easily as Concert Tour did in the Rebel, I add a plus to the Beyer Speed Figure. So, for me, it’s a 94+.

Below are the Beyer Speed Figures for Rebel winners going back to 1990 (the figures prior to 2020 are those listed in the American Racing Manual, which is now digital only):

2021 Concert Tour (94)
2020 Nadal (96)
2019 Omaha Beach (96)*
2019 Long Range Toddy (95)*
2018 Magnum Moon (97)
2017 Malagacy (94)
2016 Cupid (95)
2015 American Pharoah (100)
2014 Hoppertunity (100)
2013 Will Take Charge (95)
2012 Secret Circle (92)
2011 The Factor (103)
2010 Lookin At Lucky (98)
2009 Win Willy (102)
2008 Sierra Sunset (99)
2007 Curlin (99)
2006 Lawyer Ron (94)
2005 Greater Good (95)
2004 Smarty Jones (112)
2003 Crowned King (90)
2002 Windward Passage (94)
2001 Crafty Shaw (102)
2000 Snuck In (101)
1999 Etbauer (102)
1998 Victory Gallop (105)
1997 Phantom On Tour (102)
1996 Ide (93)
1995 Mystery Storm (92)
1994 Judge TC (95)
1993 Dalhart (105)
1992 Pine Bluff (106)
1991 Quintana (no Beyer listed)
1990 Nuits St. Georges (82)

*Run in divisions

SPRINT CHAMPION WHITMORE EDGED IN 2021 DEBUT

Whitmore, the runner-up in the 2016 Rebel and the 2020 Eclipse Award-winning male sprinter, won Oaklawn’s Hot Springs Stakes from 2017 through 2020. But he was thwarted in his bid to make it five straight wins in last Saturday’s renewal.

C Z Rocket rallied from last in the field of seven to win this year’s Hot Springs by a neck. Whitmore ran too good to lose, but the 8-year-old gelding had to settle for second.

This was sweet revenge for C Z Rocket, who had finished second to Whitmore in the Grade I BC Sprint. If C Z Rocket had won the BC Sprint instead of Whitmore, C Z Rocket most likely would have been voted the Eclipse Award as champion male sprinter.

Peter Miller trains C Z Rocket, a 7-year-old Kentucky-bred City Zip gelding.

SWISS SKYDIVER WINS FIRST START OF YEAR

After being rewarded with a 2020 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old filly, Swiss Skydiver won her first 2021 start by registering a 2 3/4-length victory in last Saturday’s Grade I Beholder Mile at Santa Anita.

By racing at nine different tracks in seven different states last year, Swiss Skydiver put together a 2020 campaign that was a throwback. Despite so much travel, she rose to the occasion to eke out a neck victory over Authentic in the Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on Oct. 3. Authentic went on to win the Grade I BC Classic and was honored as the 2020 Horse of the Year in Eclipse Award balloting in addition to being voted the Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male of 2020.

Swiss Skydiver finished seventh in the Grade I BC Distaff on Nov. 7, but she stumbled at the start and emerged from that race with an injured heel.

Four days after the Breeders’ Cup, trainer Kenny McPeek tweeted that the filly had injured her heel much worse than originally thought. McPeek went on to write that Swiss Skydiver “will rebound in 2021.”

Swiss Skydiver did indeed rebound from her BC Distaff setback by proving a punctual 7-5 favorite in the Beholder Mile, a race named in honor of the great four-time Eclipse Award winner.

McPeek has done a wonderful job with Swiss Skydiver, a Kentucky-bred Daredevil filly.

The likely next start for Swiss Skydiver is the Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn on April 17. That lucrative event also is the next target for two-time Eclipse Award winner Monomoy Girl.

One of Swiss Skydiver’s 2020 losses came when she finished second to another Daredevil filly, Shedaresthedevil, in the Grade I Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs in September.

Shedaresthedevil won last Saturday’s Grade II Azeri Stakes at Oaklawn by a neck. It was her first start since she finished third in the Grade I Spinster Stakes at Keeneland last Oct. 4.

While Swiss Skydiver deservedly received a lot of attention for her Beholder Mile victory, As Time Goes By ran quite well in defeat.

Baffert trains As Time Goes By, a beautifully bred Kentucky-bred 4-year-old daughter of 2015 Horse of the Year American Pharoah and the multiple Grade I winner Take Charge Lady (who was trained by McPeek). Take Charge Lady is the dam of Will Take Charge (the 2013 Rebel winner), who was voted a 2013 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male.

Baffert has said that he believes As Time Goes By will be even better going farther than one mile. That supposition is supported, at least to some extent, by the fact that As Time Goes By galloped out strongly after the finish last Saturday. She was about four lengths clear of Swiss Skydiver when reaching the clubhouse turn.

Considering the Apple Blossom has a $1 million purse and is an eighth of a mile longer than the Beholder Mile, it would seem that the Apple Blossom would make a lot of sense (and perhaps dollars) for As Time Goes By.

Granted, having to face Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver is a tough task. But because the Apple Blossom is a handicap race and As Time Goes By is not even a stakes winner, one would expect Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver to spot a fair amount of weight to As Time Goes By.

If As Time Goes By did defeat Monomoy Girl and Swiss Skydiver, it would be a huge boost to As Time Goes By’s resume and put her in the early conversation for a possible Eclipse Award.

EMERALD DOWNS ANNOUNCES STAKES SCHEDULE

The 86th running of the Grade III Longacres Mile tops the 2021 stakes schedule announced by Emerald Downs, the track where horses compete in the shadow of majestic Mount Rainier.

The $100,000 Longacres Mile is the richest race in the Pacific Northwest. It will be run this year on Aug. 15.

The 2021 Emerald meeting begins on May 19 and will be adjourned on Sept. 23.

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

Following her Beholder Mile victory, Swiss Skydiver moved up one notch to No. 3 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Shedaresthedevil zoomed up to No. 9 this week after being No. 26 last week.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 362 Charlatan (22)
2. 348 Monomoy Girl (13)
3. 288 Swiss Skydiver (2)
4. 275 Knicks Go (1)
5. 169 Idol
6. 159 Mystic Guide (1)
7. 123 Colonel Liam
8. 110 Maxfield
9. 58 Shedaresthedevil
10. 57 Gamine

In the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll, Rebel winner Concert Tour rose to No. 3 after being No. 7 last week.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 372 Essential Quality (20)
2. 365 Life Is Good (14)
3. 306 Concert Tour (2)
4. 290 Greatest Honour (2)
5. 239 Mandaloun (1)
6. 156 Medina Spirit
7. 77 Helium
8. 73 Risk Taking
9. 57 Proxy
10. 38 Hot Rod Charlie

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Louisiana Derby Picks & BTH Championship Recap

March 18, 2021 | By Johnny D

Congratulations to Karen Toyama, narrow winner in Beat the Host Championship. Toyama, at $122, proved $.50 better than runner-up Nancy Spense and $7 clear of third-place finisher Roy Brewer. In fourth place, $15.50 behind Toyama, was Christopher Reo. Cynthia Noblitt ($105), Lindy Harton ($103) and Charles Donnelly ($102) round out the top seven prize winners. Toyama has earned a starting berth in the 2022 Pegasus World Cup Betting Challenge ($6,000 value) and the other six finishers have earned spots in either this year’s Sant Anita or Florida Derby tournaments ($1,500 value each).

This week’s top 3-year-old race is the Louisiana Derby at one mile and three sixteenths. Below is one man’s humble, horse-by-horse analysis of the race and a suggested wagering strategy.

FAIR GROUNDS (RACE 14, 6:44PM ET) // LOUISIANA DERBY (GR 2, $1M) // 1 3/16 MILES
100 - 40- 20 - 10 Kentucky Derby Points

1. STARRININMYDREAMS (STEWART/L. SAEZ) - 20/1

This Super Saver colt is one of several in here coming out of the Gr. 2 Risen Star. He left the gate from the rail in that race, too, and broke a step slow at 10-1. Behind horses early, he was rank into the first turn. From there he never threatened. That’s a troubled trip, for sure, but there’s also a question of this colt’s quality. He has two previous wins to his credit in two starts, both at Churchill, so he’s probably better than what he showed last out. However, there’s plenty of speed in here, so he may find himself inside and behind horses again into the first turn. If he does clear everyone else to make the lead, he probably won’t be around late. Pass.

2. RIGHTANDJUST (WILSON/C. HERNANDEZ) - 20/1

He also comes out of the Risen Star (31-1 odds) and showed good speed early in the mile and one-eighth race. He broke well from the far outside 11-hole and was sent forward by jockey Mitchell Murrill. Like #1 Starrininmydreams, he had won both starts before the Gr. 2 Risen Star—route races at Fair Grounds. His only previous defeat came in a maiden sprint. Expect this son of Awesome Again to again break alertly under CJ Hernandez and use his inside post to his advantage. Claimed for $50k out of maiden score, there’s a question of how much talent this one’s got. He’ll be tested in here since he should have company early. He has been working well since his last race—a bullet :59 3/5 and a 100 3/5 are solid. Pass.

3. RUN CLASSIC (CALHOUN/B. HERNANDEZ JR.) - 12/1

Winner of a maiden race last out, this son of Runhappy appears to have upside. First out he was second in a maiden race that propelled both him and the third-place finisher to wins next time out. The Beyer Speed figure for that maiden score was 85 and he’ll need to improve on that to win this race. He took a fair amount of money in his first start and was favored second time out. His running style suggests he prefers to sit just behind the early pace and then come running. That’s the right style for this race but we doubt he can jump forward enough to immediately win this race. This field is deep with competition, so it’s not the ideal place to be forced to improve in a hurry, however, trainer Brett Calhoun isn’t one to overmatch his horses, so Run Classic shouldn’t be completely ignored. Bottom Exotics Only.

4. PROXY (STIDHAM/VELAZQUEZ) - 7/2

Runner-up in the mile and one-sixteenth Gr. 3 Lecomte and in the mile and one-eighth Gr. 2 Risen Star, owners Godolphin are hoping this colt can make a slight forward step at this extended distance. Trainer Mike Stidham is quoted saying this colt will appreciate longer distances. The trainer’s adding blinkers in an effort to get his charge more focused on his task, as his attention seems to wander during a race. #6 Mandaloun and #7 Midnight Bourbon have flip-flopped as top and bottom pieces of Proxy sandwiches. Can he turn the tables on that duo in here? He’s talented, no doubting that. In five races, he’s never been worse than second with two wins. Previously, he’s been content to sit a few lengths off the early speed and then close—just a bit too little, too late. Blinkers are meant to erase shortfalls. He fits in the mix, obviously, and if the equipment change works to focus his closing kick, he could win. Win Contender.

5. HOT ROD CHARLIE (MORA/ROSARIO) - 3/1

This son of Oxbow will make his first start for trainer Leandro Mora, normally assistant trainer to multiple Kentucky Derby winning trainer Doug O’Neill, who’s serving a suspension. So, other than shipping from California to Louisiana, not much has changed for this colt since he finished a neck short of Medina Spirit in the Gr. 3 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. That afternoon, he and Roman Centurion had dead aim on Medina Spirit in the lane and couldn’t get by. Credit Medina Spirit. But we’re also a bit concerned about Hot Rod Charlie’s determination. Granted, it was the colt’s first race since finishing second in the Gr. 1 BC Juvenile in November at Keenelend, so he could improve. However, at a short price, we’re going to go ‘negative’ on this guy improving on his Lewis effort. Bottom Exotics Only.

6. MANDALOUN (COX/GEROUX) - 8/5

This son of Into Mischief was cranked up last out by trainer Brad Cox for a dominant victory in the Gr. 3 Risen Star, a race common to several others in the field. He stalked the early pace while wide, took command and finished well. The victory redeemed a third-place finish to #7 Midnight Bourbon in the Gr. 3 Lecomte, as the only loss on this colt’s resume after four starts. In short, he’s done little wrong. His style is perfect for this race—he relaxes early, just behind the front-runners. There should be ample pace for him to stalk and he’s shown that distance apparently isn’t a concern. It must be noted that #7 Midnight Bourbon and #4 Proxy both have finished in front of favored Mandaloun. However, in that losing effort this colt raced wide around both turns and was making his first start since November. Blinkers were added next out and that resulted in the Gr. 2 Risen Star redemptive victory. He’s the favorite and the one to beat. Most Likely Winner.

7. MIDNIGHT BOURBON (ASMUSSEN/TALAMO) - 5/1

This son of Tiznow has two wins in six starts, the most notable coming two back in the Gr. 3 Lecomte when he bested both #4 Proxy and favored #6 Mandaloun. Those foes gained revenge over Midnight Bourbon next out in the Gr. 2 Risen Star when they finished in front of him. In that race, Midnight Bourbon had a perfect start, was in a perfect spot and didn’t follow through in a disappointing, no-excuse effort. What’s a bit strange is that despite defeating both main contenders in the Gr. 3 Lecomte, Midnight Bourbon was nearly 6-1 in the Gr. 2 Risen Star! It also should be noted that according to Beyer Speed Figures, Midnight Bourbon’s Gr. 2 Risen Star was faster than his Gr. 3 Lecomte victory. So, he apparently improved, but so did others. Midnight Bourbon has a pair of solid five-furlong moves since last raced. Pass.

8. O BESOS (FOLEY/PEDROZA) - 15/1

This son of Kentucky Derby winner Orb is an interesting piece to the puzzle. He’s made four starts, with two wins—an off-the-turf maiden five and one-half furlong sprint and a six-furlong allowance win. Last out he moved up in class to the Gr. 2 Risen Star while stretching out in distance from six furlongs to one mile and one-eighth. Those are some stiff hurdles to overcome in a fourth start and, while he didn’t clear them easily, he wasn’t badly stymied either. In the Gr. 2 Risen Star, against solid stakes foes, O Besos raced evenly and actually loomed as an in-the-money threat in mid-stretch before finishing fourth, beaten just over seven lengths by #6 Mandaloun, #4 Proxy and #7 Midnight Bourbon—all much more seasoned than him. He tired in the final strides and that was to be expected. This colt has shown that he has some ability. Is he ready to win this Gr. 2, million-dollar stakes race and earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate? Probably not. But he’s worth a long look in exotics at a big price. He’s got a pesky poor habit of breaking slowly and he’s done it in all four races. Against this kind of foe from the outside post he can’t afford to surrender any ground and a slow break won’t help. His Beyer Speed Figures have improved with each start and will need to jump forward again but he’s got enough promise to anticipate another good race. Use in Exotics.


BOTTOM LINE


#6 Mandaloun is the favorite and there really aren’t any cracks that we can detect. His trainer, last year’s Eclipse Award winner, continues to win and the rider is top notch. Distance shouldn’t be an issue and his style fits the expected race shape. His is short price is a well-earned deterrent.

#4 Proxy adds blinkers and could improve on his runner-up efforts in two previous Fair Grounds graded stakes efforts. Extra distance should be his friend. He can’t be ignored.

#8 O Besos is a longshot worth consideration. He appears to have the kind of development that signals a big jump could be coming. He’s 15-1 on the morning line and should go higher than that. He was fourth last out against the top ones in here while stretching from six furlongs to one mile and one-eighth. Watch the replay, he ran pretty well until he tired late.


THE PLAY:

$2 Trifecta ($12)

1st: #6 Mandaloun
2nd: #4 Proxy, #8 O Besos
3rd: #3 Run Classic #4 Proxy, #5 Hot Rod Charlie, #8 O Besos

$1 Trifecta ($6)

1st: #4 Proxy
2nd: #6 Mandaloun, #8 O Besos
3rd: #3 Run Classic, #5 Hot Rod Charlie, #6 Mandaloun, #8 O Besos


Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #10
Picks Notes
#7 Joy Epifora She had some run in the lane last time out, moving well along with the winner before getting shut off, and she might have some upset potential with a clean trip today.
#3 Dalika Handled the top choice last time out, and while she brings running lines that make her tough with these, she doesn't always back up her biggest efforts. Capable, but she doesn't have to win.
#6 Temple City Terror Finisher closed well in that common race last out, and there is probably a scenario in which she handles this group at a square price.
Race Summary Joy Epifora really did look like she had some run when she took up last time out, trading strides with Dalika just before that. The price should still be right.

Fair Grounds - Race #12
Picks Notes
#1 Factor This Went too fast at for a 9f trip last time out, and he can probably take a step forward with that one under his belt. He loves it here and can bounce back at a better price.
#5 Colonel Liam No knocks on the Pegasus World Cup Turf winner. He's probably a little overbet with these, but there's no denying he's the one to beat.
#11 Olympic Runner He has landed some underneath slices with all sorts of company, including a Grade I group, so he's obviously good enough to land a piece of this. Reliable.
Race Summary Factor This should offer a better number today with the presence of Grade I winner Colonel Liam, and he has a legit excuse for the comeback run when going too fast early.

Fair Grounds - Race #14
Picks Notes
#3 Run Classic Loved his maiden win that was significantly faster than other 3yo races on the card, and the price is going to be right for a guy who might yet have a move forward in him.
#6 Mandaloun Solid Risen Star score while adding blinks, and there's nothing to suggest this added sixteenth is going to pose much of a problem for him. Beat him to score.
#5 Hot Rod Charlie He had every chance to get past Medina Spirit in his last one, but he has been a different horse since adding blinkers. Not out of it.
Race Summary Run Classic should be a fair price in here with some logical Risen Star returnees and Hot Rod Charlie likely to take cash. He was a sharp maiden winner in a fast race last out, and if there is anything better than that left in the tank, look out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 RED DIRT STAR Braced for challenge on final turn, went down fighting.
#5 VILLAGE ARTIST Quick first-over burst to engage top one, finished second.
#3 MACHING BEAUTY Gave way in fast heat, faced better in prior starts.
Race Summary Red Dirt Star hustled to the lead on the class drop, controlled the opening half mile but dueled hard with Village Artist through the final 3/8s before tiring very late. She won 6 of 19 last year, so we'll give her the nod for her first win of 2021.

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 UBANJI Classy 13yo is due for some better racing luck, gets 18-percent amateur driver.
#7 BACK DOOR MAN Rallied in crowded fields for a win and a second in March.
#3 HITITOUTOFTHEPARK Has speed, came up short in last two starts as fave, steps up.
Race Summary Ubanji, caught first- or second-over in his last six starts, can overcome post 6 with a 7-for-40 amateur driver. The 13yo is bidding for his 25th win as he nears $500k in earnings.

Meadowlands - Race #3
Picks Notes
#9 TOM'S AROCKIN Pennsylvania invader was parked most of the way in solid try.
#5 SOSSY'S KING KONG No fire as the favorite off the claim, can't be discounted.
#2 POP ICON Faded in fast heat, fits well, but he's 1-for-30 since 2020.
Race Summary Tom's Arockin, out and moving in the second quarter, grinded first over, was a clear second at the top of the stretch and just missed second behind the 3-to-1 pace setter. He goes from a second-tier starting spot to post 9 and picks up Gingras. Play 9-2 and 9-5 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 Sleek Lynx Broke her maiden after running fifth in the G1 Natalma; will be moving best at the end.
#4 Wink Was second at Longchamp in her latest and has been off since September; was perfect in two U.S. starts and will be the one to catch.
#7 Lionessofbrittany Gave way going a mile in the G3 Sweet Chant and is back to a preferred distance; can press from the beginning.
Race Summary Sleek Lynx will have to get tied on early but she has a good closing move and could benefit from a breakneck pace.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#8 Slam Dunk Scored going 6.5 furlongs in an optional claiming race last out and Leparoux will have her wear she needs to be; look for a better finish in this one.
#4 Pacific Gale Closed well and won the G2 Inside Info going away; it was her first win since 2019 and she can be tough right back.
#6 Sonar Has won two of her last three here and can be a close-up factor throughout; used to the environs and could come up big.
Race Summary Slam Dunk has been in some strong races and comes off a win here; capable of finishing well vs. this group.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#5 Omaha City Tired going longer in his last two and should welcome turning back in distance; is a stakes winner at the distance over this course and is often overlooked.
#3 Field Day Scored nicely in his only local appearance and was challenged every jump; that gameness could get him the win today as well.
#8 Warrior's Pride Moves over to the turf for the first time and has show speed in all starts; has faced good company and is probably the one to beat if this comes off the grass.
Race Summary Omaha City weakened going longer and won the Hollywood Beach here in September. Probably a late threat at this distance.

[Bankroll19]

PickersMx Free Pick

https://www.pickersmx.com/so/73NXFgdLb?languageTag=es&cid=6ee99a33-ea52-46bd-b440-0d7413f7830b#/main

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Age 3 • CR: 79 • Purse: $39,000 • Post: 1:54P
FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. (IF A CAL-BRED WINS THIS RACE, THE OWNER WILL RECEIVE A $10,000 INCENTIVE AWARD DIRECTLY FROM THE CALIFORNIA THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS' ASSOCIATION.).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. STREET DANCING is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CHAMPAGNE PEGASUS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TWICE THE PRICE: Ho rse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. STREET DANCING: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the t op three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SEAHAWK CODY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	CHAMPAGNE PEGASUS	8/5	5/1
3	TWICE THE PRICE	7/2	6/1
1	STREET DANCING	10/1	6/1
2	SEAHAWK CODY	7/5	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	STREET DANCING	1	10/1	Front-runner	0	0	94.8	67.3	60.8
4	CHAMPAGNE PEGASUS	4	8/5	Stalker	78	74	90.9	70.1	67.1
3	TWICE THE PRICE	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	80	73	89.8	67.2	61.7
2	SEAHAWK CODY	2	7/5	Alternator/Stalker	72	72	84.4	68.3	62.8
5	ROARING TIGER	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	96.7	52.1	45.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 3	Pick 5 (3-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 3-4
Claiming $8,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 3:35P
FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 5 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 20 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 20 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BELLO SONERO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest T rackMaster Power Rating. GABY'S CROWN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MENSAJE DE TEXTO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	BELLO SONERO	3/1	4/1
5	GABY'S CROWN	9/5	6/1
1	MENSAJE DE TEXTO	5/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	EL KID CASAS	7	4/1	Front-runner	47	38	63.2	43.2	34.2
6	BELLO SONERO	6	3/1	Front-runner	59	53	54.4	50.2	48.2
5	GABY'S CROWN	5	9/5	Trailer	59	52	35.6	53.0	46.5
1	MENSAJE DE TEXTO	1	5/2	Trailer	55	42	27.0	51.8	46.3
4	TEN CON TEN	4	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	63	58	20.2	32.1	22.1
3	EL DECLAMADOR	3	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	64	56	7.6	17.1	9.1
2	EL MONITOR	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	33	15	38.0	15.8	1.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 80

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 LADY FIORELLA 2/1
# 4 FAST FRACTION 10/1
# 3 ABARRIO FOREVER 9/2

LADY FIORELLA has a strong shot to take this race. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this equine look decent in this contest. Has to be given a shot based on the very good speed figure garnered in the last contest. This group is much softer than the last one she ran against. FAST FRACTION - Has put up reliable Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races in the past. Garnered a formidable speed figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. ABARRIO FOREVER - This filly is a solid contender based on her earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. Vaunts strong speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this group of animals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turfway Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:16pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#2 NORTH ELKHORN (ML=7/2)
#10 RANSACK (ML=4/1)
#3 RED BLUE AND TRUE (ML=15/1)
#8 SO CAUGHT UP IN U (ML=3/1)


NORTH ELKHORN - Don't often see a positive return on investment like +86. This rider/handler duo has done well together over the last 12 months. I really like sprinters that make a quick turnaround. This front-runner is cutting back in distance today. Should enhance his chances to win. RANSACK - Was in a $18,000 Claiming race at Turfway Park last out. That contest had a class rating of 96 and he is moving down right here. A certain strong challenger. RED BLUE AND TRUE - That last effort must not have been too hard on this gelding for him to be able to race again so quickly. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. SO CAUGHT UP IN U - Ran last time around the track against a better field at Turfway Park. The move down the ladder based on class should suit him well. That last race must not have been too hard on this gelding for him to be able to race again so quickly. Lower impost of -7. In my opinion, a movement of 5 is important, so this gelding falls into this category. Just view his last figure, 78. That one looks good in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 FLIGHT TIME (BRZ) (ML=9/2),

FLIGHT TIME (BRZ) - No picnic to play any entrant in a short distance event at 9/2 when he hasn't shown any on the board results in sprints in the last couple of months.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 NORTH ELKHORN to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,8,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,8,10] with [3,8,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,8,10] with [3,8,10] with [3,8,10] Total Cost: $6