Saturday 3/27/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Mandatory Hi-5 Payout

March 27, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Tonight, there will be a mandatory payout in the Super Hi-5 at Woodbine Mohawk Park. The pool was frozen last Saturday and the carryover is $262,454.05.

As is usually the case in a mandatory payout situation, this is a challenging affair and it's difficult to completely eliminate many of the participants. My plays are built around #10, as a win possibility, and #6 towards the top of the ticket.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11-Jackpot Hi-5

1-Outlaw Aceofspades (8-1)-Hit the board in 14 of 21 starts last year with a 150.2 mark here but hasn't taken a picture in 2021. Beat better than this at the end of 2020 and comes off 2 even efforts versus easier while going off as the chalk both times. Using towards the bottom of the ticket and might be overlooked at the windows.

2-Ideal Perception (6-1)-Beat #1 in last but is only 3 for the last 24 and has 1 win in 11 tries here. But could be in the hunt at a nice price. Can pass some foes down the lane and should be put in play early. Might get sucked around and surprise. Did face some tough company last year and comes off a sharp win.

3-Bettor B Going (10-1)-Not the easiest to figure out but could hang around to cash a check at long odds. Not a win candidate but can be in the hunt with a top effort. Will use underneath and might add some juice to the Hi-5 payout from this post.

4-Legion Seelster (7/2)-If this 5-year-old is near his best he should be a main player but there are some question marks. Beat better than this in 2020 but was put away after a win on 7-11 and then didn't qualify until 2-18-21. Was battling in a Preferred Handicap on 3-20 and now drops in for a $30,000 tag. Could draw off and win if firing on all cylinders at a short price.

5-Real Willey (8-1)-The case could be made McNair will keep Willey in play to hit the bottom of the ticket. Looks like a minor player and will need the right trip to cash a check versus this field.

6-East End (4-1)-Here's another dropper who was in with #4 facing Preferred Company and has cashed checks recently against tougher than this. This is the 1st start for the Fellows barn and lands in a good spot. MacDonald steers tonight and this looks like a candidate to use near the top of the ticket.

7-Evenwood Sonofagun (3-1)-Raced from the back of the pack and closed hard with a 55.3 last half versus similar to cash a 2nd place check. This field looks deeper and being 13 lengths back at the first call isn't a winning formula here. McClure needs to work the right trip and my guess is this 9-year-old won't offer much value but could be sitting on a big try.

8-P L Jackson (15-1)-Doesn't fit well with this group and the post draw doesn't help at all. This looks like one that could be tossed or used at best in the 5th slot.

9-Butter Bay Hanover (15-1)-Has the gate speed to get a decent early seat and might hang around but appears to be in tall cotton. Might sneak in at the bottom of the ticket at long odds but this field is probably too tough to expect better.

10-Mongolian Hero N (9/2)-Drops to a more comfortable spot after leaving from the 2nd tier in last. Did close in .55 but that wasn't good enough as the fractions weren't hot and was far back early. My guess is the speed inside will help Roy put this 8-year-old in a good seat early on. The pace should be lively and could be in striking range at the top of the lane. Best to not overlook at a square price.

11-Pointomygranson (15-1)-Would need to trip out to beat this group and that doesn't appear likely from the 2nd tier. Won't completely toss but will use only at the bottom of the ticket.

0.20 Hi-5
10/6/2,4,7/1,2,3,4,7/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11=$16.80

0.20 Hi-5
10/2,4,7/6/1,2,3,4,7/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11=$16.80

0.20 Hi-5
2,4,7/6,10/6,10/1,2,3,4,7/1,2,3,4,5,7,8,9,11=$33.60

Total Bet=$67.20

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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 3/27/21

March 27, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click here to view The Florida Derby-G1 Video Analysis

Click here to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report


RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Big Bell; 4-Bossy Mama; 7-Mind Meld

Forecast: The Saturday opener is a challenging turf sprint for state-bred maiden 3-year-old fillies that requires heavy coverage in rolling exotic play. Bossy Mama stopped to a walk in her debut but has returned to work quite well and might deserve another chance with the switch to grass. She’s had trouble changing leads in the morning but if she can correct her footwork the daughter of Street Boss might get brave on the front end. Big Bell has don’t anything extraordinary in the morning but is certainly bred to handle the lawn (Mr. Big) and attracts red-hot leading rider F. Prat. Mind Meld is bred for grass (Point of Entry) and has trained fairly well for her debut, so at 4-1 on the morning she’s worth including as well. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Bye Bye Miss Pie; 3-Bruja Escarlata

Forecast: Bye Bye Miss Pie burned money in her debut when finishing second at 50 cents on the dollar but then made amends with an authoritative four length score from off the pace in her next outing. She moves into the first-level allowance ranks today and catches a field with plenty of zip, so we suspect F. Prat will employ patient handling once again. Bruja Escarlata is undefeated in two starts in lesser company but she’s fast enough on speed figures to handle this tougher assignment. The daughter of Street Boss can take heat and dish it out and if she can shake loose early the J. Sadler-trained filly will be very hard to run down. They’re hard to separate so we’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Bey Bye Miss Pie on top.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Whatdidido

Forecast: The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s go with a fresh face in this turf sprint for maiden 3-year-old California-breds. Whatdidido has trained like a quick type for P. D’Amato and in an open fray gets the edge on top. A recent bullet half mile workout on the training track (:47.4h) was accomplished under a nice hold, so we suspect this son of Grazen has more speed than his steady but unspectacular work tab might indicate. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: B
Single: 1-Hard Immunity

Forecast: Hard Immunity was a visually pleasing winner for $32,000 last month and has trained quite well since for his first-off-the-claim out for J. Sadler (powerful stats with this angle). He’ll have to break cleanly from the rail to avoid trouble but if the Union Rags gelding can stay within range early in this abbreviated sprint he’ll have every chance to roll on by from the quarter pole home. F. Prat has ridden him twice, winning both times. At 8/5 on the morning line he’ll probably not offer too much value in the win pool but if nothing else we can use him as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:20 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Hartel; 3-Armour Plate; 4-Exultation; 7-Sigalert

Forecast: In a restricted starter optional claiming turf sprint in which most of the entrants lack a winning spirit, we’ll spread this race four deep and hope one of them can manage to find the wire. Sigalert, fourth in a similar spot last month after encountering early trouble that cost him valuable position, can turn it on late and could tag the speed at a nice price with some help up front. The lightly-raced son of Street Sense is less exposed than the other contenders, so at 6-1 on the morning line he may be worth a small gamble. Exultation, second in four of his last five starts, just can’t seem to seal the deal but he’ll be in the right spot as usual heading for home and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. The same can be said for Armour Plate, a veteran gelding with just one win from 22 career starts. However, he has the popular route-to-sprint angle while retaining F. Prat, so he’s a reluctant “must use.” Hartel is the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as he can.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Captain Scotty; 8-Octopus

Forecast: Captain Scotty just missed for $32,000 last time out but was a voided claim and today shows up in a $20,000 seller that will be his for the asking if he has at least one good one left. The ex-classer switches to F. Prat and projects as a shorter price than his morning line of 9/5. Octopus is worth including on your rolling exotic ticket for protection. Drawn comfortably outside and moving up a notch off a win following a $16,000 claim by D. O’Neill, the son of Shackleford is a bit shy in the speed figure department but is genuine and consistent, having finished first or second in half of his 14 career starts.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Salvaator Mundi; 4-Gregdar

Forecast: Gregdar has really improved of late, most recently earning a career top speed figure when wearing down subsequent winner Whisper Not over this turf course with a good turn of foot and then coming back to train extremely well in the interim. There should be pace up front to compliment late kick, so let’s put the P. D’Amato-trained colt on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 2-1. Salvator Mundi exits a tougher race, is assured a ground-saving trip from his good inside post and retains F. Prat. This 10 furlong trip should be within his range and the son of Artie Schiller and on pure numbers he’s a solid fit.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:55 PT Grade: B
Use: 7-Defense Wins; 8-Dark Prince

Forecast: Defense Wins, just claimed for $25,000 by P. Eurton, returns protected in a sign of confidence, and while he’s failed to deliver the last three times he went favored the veteran sprinter switches to F. Prat and shouldn’t make any mistakes in this starter optional claiming main track sprint. He’s just 1-for-13 with seven seconds/thirds, but at least the victory was accomplished over the local main track and after finishing in the frame in his last three the son of Flatter certainly is overdue for another visit to the winner’s circle. Dark Prince continues to work well in the morning while underperforming in the afternoon. Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Cairo Prince wants to be held up and allowed to run late and given that type of ride from E. Maldonado the B. Baffert-trained gelding can outrun his 6-1 morning line. Toss him in somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Mucho Unusual; 3-Going to Vegas; 5-Red Alert

Forecast: The featured Santa Ana S.-G3 goes as the Saturday finale, with Mucho Unusual the deserved 8/5 morning line favorite. She lands the lovely rail draw, switches to F. Prat, and is a Grade-1 winner over this course and distance, so it all adds up. Going to Vegas, fourth in the recent Buena Vista S.-G2 in the same race that Mucho Unusual just finished second in, will appreciate this stretch out in trip and the switch to top turf rider U. Rispoli. A three-time winner over the Santa Anita lawn, the R. Baltas-trained daughter of Goldencents seems sure to fire her best shot under these conditions.Red Lark, a non-threatening fifth in the Buena Vista, is another that seems likely to improve at this longer distance and with some help up front should make some noise from the quarter pole home.
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Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 3/27/21

March 27, 2021

Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

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Turfway Park– Eighth Race – Post time: 4:40 ET
8-Gagetown (7/2)

Returns to his preferred trip (sprinting) after looming a threat but then flattening out late in a trio of highly-rated two-turn allowance races at Fair Grounds, and while the son of Exaggerator is being raised into stakes competition he does have speed figures that are good enough to win. Most effective when held up and allowed to run late, the B. Cox-trained colt retains F. Geroux and at this extended sprint trip he should be capable of producing the last run. There’s wagering value at or near his morning line of 7/2.

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Gulfstream Park – Eleventh Race – Post time: 4:43 PT
4-Lucky Law (6-1)

Spun his wheels when unplaced in the Sam F. Davis S. over the Tampa Bay Downs dirt track last month but returns to his preferred surface (grass) today and seems likely to recapture his winning form in this year’s edition of the Cutler Bay S. The P. Biancone-trained colt possesses an exceptional turn of foot, so if he can secure cover and then find room to accelerate when room develops the son of No Nay Never can tag the speed while offering a good gamble at 6-1 on the morning line.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 Diva's Finale Really liked the debut win, and this is a logical spot for this first start off the claim. The cold barn is a concern, but I think he'll handle these.
#1 Herd Immunity He looks like the main danger as he goes off the claim here, too. His form has some tough lines in stakes company, and he has been a handful when racing outside that type of competition.
#3 Love My Jimmy He doesn't seem impossible here, but the top pair do seem like a slight cut above at this point in time. His early speed keeps him in the mix from the start.
Race Summary Diva's Finale and Herd Immunity seem tough to get past in here, but Diva's Finale has more upside with just one start under his belt, and maybe he offers a click or so better on the tote?

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 Award Winner Speed stretches out and should be able to control the tempo here, and after going a bit too fast two starts back, he caught a tough winner in Scarto in that last one. Chance to wire 'em.
#4 Gregdar His last was really solid, but he did get a really nice setup for the distance that day. That type of pace isn't likely to materialize in this spot, but he does seem like a horse heading in the right direction.
#1 Salvator Mundi He's a good fit with this kind, but he'll have to reel in the top choice from off it, and the price probably isn't quite going to accurately reflect his realistic chances of winning this.
Race Summary Award Winner should be on another send mission in this spot, and he figures to offer a decent enough price to learn whether he can see out this longer trip with a more modest tempo.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#4 Tapwater Stretches out another quarter mile for this one while stepping up, and she has enough pace to be right up on the splits in the early going. She has some upside in this second start off the bench.
#1 Mucho Unusual She's better than ever right now, really putting things together over the last year or so, and she was simply no match for the razor-sharp Charmaine's Mia last time out.
#3 Going to Vegas She's a really reliable type who figures to land a piece of this, but her ceiling isn't quite as high as some of the others, so she's likely to find one or two of them too tough here.
Race Summary Tapwater should find herself either on the lead or pressing the splits, and her last looks competitive enough with this group. Factor in some possible upside today, and she's an interesting player at an okay price.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Eye of a Jedi Ran fourth in the G2 GP Mile and has been in good form since last summer; can be effective as a stalker and will have an ideal pace setup.
#6 War Stopper Couldn't keep up with Last Judgment at Tampa but is back to where he does his best running; can be part of a speed duel.
#1 Last Judgment Led gate-to-gate in the G3 Challenger and has won three of his last five; has early run and could be difficult to catch going the nine furlongs.
Race Summary Eye of a Jedi hasn't run a bad one in more than a year and had a pair of stakes wins and was second in two graded races, all at GP; had to imagine a better setup for a closer.

Gulfstream Park - Race #13
Picks Notes
#1 War Like Goddess Tasted defeat last time after winning her first two races; certified router came rolling and finished fifth after falling behind by double digits. One to hold off.
#5 Sorrel Won her last three in Great Britain and is set for her first U.S. starts; distance will not be a problem.
#9 Always Shopping Was well clear at the end of her last two and will get plenty of play; she's was a head away from winning four in a row. Solid mare.
Race Summary War Like Goddess takes on a field that has a lot more experience than her but she will embrace the distance and can show a lot of improvement in her second of the year.

Gulfstream Park - Race #14
Picks Notes
#10 Spielberg It's clear that California horses are competitive anywhere they go, and this comes off a second-place finish to the highly talked Essential Quality in the Southwest at Oaklawn. He can probably clear a lot of the field going into the first turn and can have a huge chance to get into a favorable position. Takes a big step today.
#7 Greatest Honour Won all three of his local races and has finished full of run in those 1 1-16th-mile races; he gets more real estate and he'll be rolling again.
#9 Collaborate Makes just his third stakes and comes off a smashing 12-length maiden score; seems to get better the most distance he gets.
Race Summary Spielberg has the tactical speed and should be able to adjust to pace. Should be in position to battle it out to the wire.

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Free Winners for Saturday, March 27th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE NHL PICKS
Islanders @ Penguins
TIME: 7:08 PM EST
PICK: Islanders -117

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GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE NHL WINNER
SATURDAY 3/27/21
Oilers @ Maple Leafs
Time: 7:08 PM EST
Free Pick: Maple Leafs -153

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Sports Action 365

FREE NHL WINNER for SATURDAY 3/27/21:
PLAY Lightning -120 @ Hurricanes GAME TIME 7:08 PM EST

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Cappers Access

(Sat) NCAAB Colorado St +4
(Sat) NCAAB Loyola(IL) -7
(Sat) NCAAB Villanova +7.5
(Sat) NCAAB Houston -6.5

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Mitchell Newman

I think we are going to see enough points on the board in this Sweet Sixteen meeting between Villanova and Baylor for it to squeeze Over the posted total when the 40 minutes have expired.

Villanova did play their last tournament game Over the posted total and have landed Over now in 2 of their last 3 games. The Wildcats were able to run up 84 in their win over North Texas and did score a respectable 73 points in their opening round win over Winthrop, although that game held Under by 8 points.

As for Baylor, this team is capable of posting 12 points in less than a minute as they like to shoot - and make - from distance.

The Bears just landed Over in their second round win over Wisconsin and have played Overs in 6 of their last 7 and in 9 of their last 10 games played overall.

For the season Baylor stands at 16-10 over and I expect today's meeting to add to that Over run.

Villanova-Baylor Over the total here on Saturday.

2* VILLANOVA-BAYLOR OVER

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Trace Adams

Saturday night my comp play winner will be Oral Roberts and Arkansas to do exactly what the oddsmakers think they will do and that is to play a high-scoring game that lands Over the total.

The Golden Eagles and Razorbacks did play a game versus one another back on December 20th that was won by the Hogs, 87-76 on their home court. The total that night was 154 points and it just did make its way over the posted price.

This total is a few points higher than their December meeting, but I don't think offense-lovers will be disappointed.

Oral Roberts scores 81.5 points per game for the year and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Over the posted total and are 17-8 Over the total in their 25 games played so far this season.

Arkansas has had some higher totals on their games in general, so it is not surprising to me that they have played 4 in a row and 7 of their last 9 Under the posted price. Even with that pronounced Under run they are still 14-14-1 for the season when it comes to Over/Unders and the Razorbacks do average 82 points per game for the season.

With one team's season on the line, we probably will also see some late free-throws added as the old "bomb-and-foul" could well be in play for the last few minutes of this contest.

Go Over in Oral Roberts and Arkansas.

1* ORAL ROBERTS-ARKANSAS OVER

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Gus Augustine

It was a nice run, but it's time for Oral Roberts to go home. And Arkansas will have its way in this one, getting the win and cover.

It's no coincidence the number is where it is, as the Razorbacks won by 11 in the teams' first meeting on Dec. 20. They met in Arkansas, and the most overwhelming stat that stood out for me was the Razorbacks winning the offensive rebounds battle, 23-6. Arkansas outrebounded Oral Roberts, 54-29.

It was how the Razorbacks turned back a 10-point deficit, and outscored the Golden Eagles in the second half, 57-36.

And while some will argue the Eagles have improved since the first meeting, I can't help by look at their offensive rebounds. Oral Roberts hasn't had a double-digit night on the offensive boards since it grabbed 15 against North Dakota on Jan. 8. Since then, the Eagles average 5.2 offensive rebounds per game.

That's not going to cut it when you're playing a team that ranks 18th in the nation with 39.7 rebounds per game, including 28 on the defensive glass. By limiting Oral Roberts' second-chance opportunities, the Razorbacks fuel an offense that ranks seventh in the nation with 82 points per game. And if the shots don't fall, they're grabbing 11.8 offensive rebounds per contest, good enough for 47th in the country.

The offensive balance is there, too, as six different players have scored in double figures at least 10 times this season. Seven players have scored 20 points in at least one game.

Coach Eric Musselman has a seasoned group, and with enough time to watch film of the more recent Golden Eagles, and what they did to get to this point, I like their chances with his guidance and know-how to make in-game adjustments when he sees what's developing.

Arkansas, which rolls in on a 10-2 ATS streak, pulls away in the second half with a dominating performance on the boards and advances to the regional final with a blowout win.

5* ARKANSAS

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Chris Jordan

46-26-2 run with Complimentary Basketball plays

The Memphis Tigers did me dirty on Thursday in the college's junior varsity tournament. Saturday afternoon I'm going to come back with them for my free play against their second straight Mountain West team.

As I told you Thursday, and as we saw in them holding off a Boise State team I didn't expect to show up, we saw the Tigers' resiliency once again. It's their competitive nature that has gotten them this far. And I don't believe Colorado State has seen a balanced team like this.

The Tigers have now won nine of 11 since Feb. 1. And their two losses were March 7 - a 67-64 loss at No. 9 Houston - and March 13 - to No. 7 Houston 76-74 in the American Athletic Conference tourney. The Cougars closed the season averaging 82.2 points per game over their last 12.

For the Tigers to threaten Houston, and limit it to 67 and 76 points - tells me how competitive and formidable Memphis is and will be with just one more hurdle to clear before the championship game.

The Tigers' relentless defense limited opponents to 61.1 points per game - second lowest in the league. Overall this season, the 62.5 points per game they limited all opponents to ranks 18th in the nation.

And, another note I told you, if you weigh the AAC vs. the Mountain West - it's no contest.

Better chemistry, better roster, better defense, and better coaching. Take Memphis on Saturday.

2* MEMPHIS

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Bob Valentino

Saturday night in the NBA going to look for Luka and Zion to help their teams put some major points up as the Mavericks and Pelicans make their way Over the posted total.

Both teams were on the floor last night and both teams were involved in games that held Under the posted price.

For New Orleans, Unders this year are a rarity as the team has gone Over the total in 30 of their 44 games this season.

That Over mark includes the first meeting of the year between the teams in Big D when the score line read; Dallas 143-130 over New Orleans. That game was 39 1/2 points clear of the total that night.

That put the series numbers at 2 in a row and 4 of 6 Over the total.

The Over is also 7-3 the last 10 times the Mavs and Pels have jumped ball.

Nothing changes tonight between these teams.

Over is the call.

4* DALLAS-NEW ORLEANS OVER

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BATTAGLIA Daily Free Play :

Free Aqueduct Picks for Saturday

Race 6
Aqueduct Picks 4-7-9-8 Rating 2 stars

#4 Family Biz(7-2)-rallied to get the score two back for 40k in his first start for Rice after the claim. He then missed by 7 last out against a tougher allowance field. He finds easier today and will be tough to hold off.

#7 Zaevion(5-1)-won three in a row then missed by only 3 last out against allowance runners. He is coming off a layoff but trainer is hitting at 22% with his runners coming off a break and has the one to beat.

#9 Clench (6-1)-rallied to get the score two back and was claimed for 32k. He then finished 3rd against tougher 40k and was reclaimed by trainer Arriaga. He stretches back out and that will help his chances at a price.

#8 Ryan’s Cat (3-1)-was claimed for 20k two starts back then drew off to win by 16 lengths last out for Rodriguez in his first race with blinkers off. He did only beat 3 others that day but is improving and has the speed to be close from the start.