Tuesday 3/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 07:56 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Portugal at Luxembourg
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 30, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Luxembourg +2.0 (+100)
World Cup Qualifier
Luxembourg is catching two goals at home and while Portugal on paper should cruise to an easy win, I don’t think it will be in blowout fashion. Luxembourg has played just one World Cup Qualifier so far this international break, an impressive 1-0 win at Ireland and now they return home for their second match where they have been pretty strong over the last few years.
Dating back to the last World Cup Qualifiers four years ago, Luxembourg have played 15 competitive games and have not lost a single match by more than two goals. While some games have come against some other weak competition in the Nations League, the list of teams they have played does include some heavyweights including Sweden, Netherlands, France, Ukraine, Serbia and this very same Portugal team back in 2019.
Portugal won that match 2-0, so a push on this number, but I think that is worst case scenario here.
Portugal meanwhile have a win and a draw so far in this qualifying group. They beat Azerbaijan only by the score of 1-0 at home and drew 2-2 at Serbia on Saturday blowing a two goal lead.
Portugal have one of the best lineups in the world and of course could go off and score a ton in any game, but I think Luxembourg can hang close for a while in this game and maybe we push on the number, but I just don’t see a loss here.
TAKE LUXEMBOURG +2.0
Line Parameter: 3% at +2.0 up -125

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 07:56 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (225557) Latvia at (225558) Turkey
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: March 30, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Total Over 3.25 (-116)
We like the Over 3.25 goals in Tuesday's WCQ game between Latvia and Turkey.
Turkey are absolutely on fire right now after back to back wins against the Netherlands and Norway respectively, and another dominant showing is expected here on Tuesday against minnows Latvia.
Turkey have already netted 7 goals across their opening two games and have scored 2+ goals in eight of their last twelve international home games as well, including at least 3+ in their last three at home also.
Latvia meanwhile have lost nine of their last eleven WCQ games across Europe, but did score at least one goal in five of those nine losses, so they definitely have the ability to get on the scoresheet here as well.
Take Latvia/Turkey Over 3.25 as your soccer free play for Tuesday.
PLAY: OVER 3.25

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 07:57 AM

Oskeim Sports

Event: (657) USC at (658) Gonzaga
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: March 30, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: USC +9.0 (-110)
Gonzaga is three wins away from becoming the first team since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers to finish a season unbeaten. The Bulldogs have not won a game by fewer than ten points since their third game of the season against West Virginia on December 2. This unparalleled success comes at a cost as Gonzaga is now overvalued in the betting market, thereby placing decent value on a surging USC squad that has defeated Drake, Kansas and Oregon by an average of 21.3 points per game in the NCAA tournament.
USC has closed as an underdog just five times in 32 games this season and never by more than 3 1/2 points. The Trojans have the 4th-best defense in the nation and are limiting opponents to a mere 41.5% shooting from 2-point range (No. 1 in the country). That metric is significant in that Gonzaga generates 57.3% of its offense from inside the arc, which is the 29th-highest rate in college basketball.

The Pac-12 has three teams in the Elite Eight for the second time in NCAA tournament history, and first since 2001. USC is a profitable 19-8 ATS in its last 27 neutral-site games, 9-4 ATS in its last thirteen games as an underdog and 7-0 ATS in its previous seven NCAA tournament games. Gonzaga applies to a very negative 5-24 ATS statistical profile indicator of mine that invests against certain neutral-court favorites that are averaging 76-plus points per game against teams that are allowing 67 or fewer points per game, provided our 'play against team enters off a win by fifteen or more points.
Grab the points with the Trojans as Oskeim Sports' Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, March 30.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 07:57 AM

Las Vegas Cris

Event: (27) Dallas Stars at (28) Nashville Predators
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: March 30, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Total Under 5.5 (-130)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 08:08 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 4	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $16,500 • Post: 2:08P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LAPIS STORM is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LAPIS STORM: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMast er Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	LAPIS STORM	7/5	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	LAPIS STORM	5	7/5	Front-runner	83	78	82.2	79.4	73.9
4	ON THE CLOCK	4	5/1	Alternator/Front-runner	82	72	67.8	66.0	57.5
1	TIA FLOR	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	84	60.8	70.6	65.6
3	L. A. STAR	3	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	71	59.2	64.0	54.5
6	SAY IT SWEETLY	6	7/2	Trailer	88	77	57.0	70.4	66.4
2	SHYLA	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	71	45.8	57.2	48.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 08:09 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 4	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) /Superfecta (.10 min.) / Daily Double (Races 4-5) Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 59 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 2:19P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * VIKING VOYAGE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has the highest Track Master Power Rating. I'M ALL MIXED UP: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ROSE CROWN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the t op three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
8	VIKING VOYAGE	2/1	5/1
2	I'M ALL MIXED UP	9/2	6/1
7	ROSE CROWN	5/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	I'M ALL MIXED UP	2	9/2	Front-runner	60	61	72.0	45.4	38.4
4	FROMAGENTLEMAN	4	20/1	Front-runner	38	50	66.8	32.2	16.7
8	VIKING VOYAGE	8	2/1	Front-runner	60	56	66.0	54.2	49.7
1	JERRY'S LEGACY	1	15/1	Front-runner	58	43	54.2	46.2	35.2
3	ACCUSTOMED TO HOPE	3	8/1	Stalker	57	53	54.8	45.4	36.4
7	ROSE CROWN	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	60	57	59.8	46.2	41.7
9	ENVOYS LEGACY	9	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	63	66	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	DECADENT DIAMOND	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	61	57.0	44.4	39.9
6	CAJUN MUSIC	6	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	53	13.0	34.4	22.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 08:10 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Allowance - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 93

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MASONS JET BLACK 2/1
# 2 FREAKIN PATRIOT DASH 9/5
# 3 IM MIGHTY FAST 7/2

MASONS JET BLACK is the strongest bet in this race. Ransom has recent return on investment figs which make this one a strong bet. Will more than likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the halfway point of the outing. Must be given consideration based on the formidable Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last contest. FREAKIN PATRIOT DASH - Ran a strong last race. Is difficult not to examine given the company run in lately. IM MIGHTY FAST - Recorded a formidable speed fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. Looks quite good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in longer quarter horse races lately.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 08:11 AM

Monday Myths: Are Classier Horses More Likely to Repeat Wins?

March 29, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

A classy horse is more likely to hold good form and repeat victories than a cheaper-class runner.

Background:

Odds-on favorite Greatest Honour was defeated in Saturday’s Curlin Florida Derby, snapping a 3-race winning streak. It’s fair for horseplayers and fans to assume a win streak can’t go on forever, and that it’s difficult to keep any horse in top form for an extended period of time. Most horseplayers say that that the lower-class horses are least-trustworthy when it comes to maintaining their winning form race after race. Is that true? And are the highest-class horses like Greatest Honour the most trusted to repeat victories? Let’s find out.

Data Points:

I crunched the numbers in the Betmix database for every Thoroughbred race in North America over the past 5 years, going back to Mar. 29, 2016. The study looked at last-out winners and how they performed in their follow-up race. I separated horses by class, from claiming to allowance to listed stakes to graded stakes. I also looked at horses who were trying to repeat in the same class level in back-to-back races.

Claiming horses going for a repeat victory of any kind won 17.8% and had a $1 ROI of $0.77.

Allowance horses going for a repeat victory of any kind won 16.3% and had a $1 ROI of $0.79.

Non-graded stakes horses going for a repeat victory of any kind won 16.1% and had a $1 ROI of $0.74.

Graded Stakes horses going for a repeat victory of any kind won 15.7% and had a $1 ROI of $0.79.

//

Claiming horses going for a repeat victory in another claiming race won 19.1% and had a $1 ROI of $.0.81.

Allowance horses going for a repeat victory in another allowance race won 20.4% and had a $1 ROI of $0.79.

Non-graded stakes horses going for a repeat victory in another non-graded stakes race won 24.7% and had a $1 ROI of $0.70.

Graded stakes horses going for a repeat victory in another graded stakes race won 22.5% and had a $1 ROI of $0.75.

Overall Findings:

The gap between horses going for a repeat victory among the class levels varies 2.1% from lowest to highest and the ROI for such runners consistently comes back a solid net loser between $0.74-$0.79. Because horses frequently move up and down in class, that can certainly impact the results.

When you look at horses remaining in the same class level while seeking back-to-back victories, the gap expands to 5.6% from best to worst, while the ROI bounces all around inconsistently. The win % among the non-graded and graded stakes horses makes large increases when running back at the same class level.

Overall Findings Verdict:

The first list gives the impression that claiming runners are more likely to repeat their victories than any other class of runner. They have the highest win percentage when seeking back-to-back scores (17.8%). But under further review, that is inflated by a 20% win rate for class-droppers coming out of allowance and stakes who repeat victories via the claiming ranks (many times moving from a smaller circuit stakes to a larger circuit claiming race).

The second list reverses that story when you look strictly at claiming horses trying to repeat, allowance horses trying to repeat, and so on. There, it’s quite apparent that stakes and graded stakes horses have a much higher propensity to double down on a victory than a claiming horse. But what you’ll also see is that the public entrusts those classier runners to the point that the ROI for them is far shorter than the claiming repeaters. You’ll win fewer times betting claimers back to repeat a win, but win more money in the long run.

Bottom line:

It’s true, classier horses are more likely to hold their winning form and repeat. But bettors can find more value in the claimers trying to do so, even if they win less often.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, take a look at the tracks you play most often to see if they fall in line with this study’s conclusions. I did a fun search by track and saw that Will Rogers (23.7%) and Mountaineer (22.7%) were the highest strike rates for claiming horses trying to win back-to-back. Though the lower level of racing to be sure, those in-form claimers have held their form the best. On the graded-stakes end, Oaklawn (29.0%) and Santa Anita (28.5%) are the tracks where you’re most likely to see a repeat winner at the top level.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 08:11 AM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Pick 4 Analysis-$20,000 Guaranteed Pool

March 30, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The feature at Pompano Park is a fillies and mares Open Pace that rolls in Race 4 and has a $11,500 purse. The 0.50 Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $20,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

4-Beach Journey (4-1)-Has improved since joining the Krieser barn 2 starts back and now drops. This is good post for Miller to work a stalking trip and will respect chances. Consistent record at the Pomp this year, hitting the board in 9 of 11 starts with 4 wins.
6-She'sgotitgoingon (7/2)-Makes 2nd start off the bench and should like the company. Could be tighter but the question is, will she be dialed on high?? Lightly raced mare might be better on a larger oval.
8-Evas Sports Czech (6-1)-Takes a meaningful drop and has the gate speed to be put in play early. If Holiday gets the top without much strain this mare could be tough to reel in.

Race 7

4-Gucciriffic (6-1)-Left hard from post 7 in last and got a good early seat but raced evenly the rest of the mile. Has been cashing checks and should be forwardly placed. Tries Lasix for the 2nd time and could surprise if it kicks in.
5-Buddha Beach (8/5)-Boyd takes a seat and he is an uptick. Comes off an even effort but did pace the 2nd half in 56.3 with a 28.2 last quarter. Looking for more in 2nd start after a 3 month hiatus.
6-Two Of Hardts (9/5)-Started from post 10 and got away 3rd off the gate and then basically was sucked around to finish 3rd. All in all not a bad effort in 1st local start and 1st start since 10-6. Figures to be in the hunt with this post draw if steps-up off of the last effort.

Race 8

4-Muscles for Life (3/2)-Raced on 3-9 and was a sharp winner at this class and then was scratched sick. Fits like a glove at this class and in the past has been super consistent. Should be a major player if close to 100%.
6-In Secret (9/5)-Comes off a sharp effort versus this kind at 0.40 to a buck. Likes the south Florida experience finishing no worse than 2nd in 6 of 7 starts with 3 pictures, so is a must use.

Race 9

4-Image Of A Dream (2-1)-Has either been stuck outside or in too tough. Now drops to a spot to shine. Plano tuned her up off the gate in last to get the point and should follow the same script here. Should be difficult to beat if on the engine or in the pocket versus this crew.
6-Dads Filly (7/2)-Needs a sharp effort to come out on top at this class. But has been in good form and probably has the best gate speed in the field. If fires out and grabs a good seat, chances to cash the top check get a lot better and should be a square price.

0.50 Pick 4

4,6,8/4,5,6/4,6/4,6
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 08:12 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Delta Downs - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 Further Lane Barn obviously gave up on her after the dud off the claim, but she powered home for an easy win when plummeting to the basement last time out. She's a decent fit right back here in a reasonable spot if she's able to hold that form.
#7 Chicken Or the Egg She's likely to land a big piece of this, but I couldn't have her at anything like the 7/5 ML price. She's a contender, but she doesn't appear to be a clear cut better than a few others in here.
#6 Sunny Empire She gets blinkers on for this one after that distant third in the first try with winners, and she'll go here for a barn that has run up nice numbers from limited starters.
Race Summary Further Lane has long layoff lines and uninspiring class drops littering her five-race form, so she's no sure thing to hold the running line from her last, but a repeat of that would probably keep her in the mix with these while racing from close range at this mile trip.

Delta Downs - Race #8
Picks Notes
#6 Elusive d'Oro The form since the claim isn't much to look at, but those were better groups he faced at Fair Grounds, and he may be finishing fast on the cutback.
#3 Warriors Gem Brings a quick drill with him in advance of this, and he hikes with form that looks pretty competitive with what the rest of these can bring on paper. Class is the question.
#7 Outamine He proved a good fit at this level when rising last out, and he'll now catch a handful of those coming up in class like he did last out. Blinkers go on after the narrow miss last out, and something similar might do the job.
Race Summary Elusive d'Oro is capable of something a bit better than he showed last time out, and the price figures to be solid as he faces a slightly softer bunch this time around.

Delta Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#9 Alterana He's down in class here after trying N2X AOC company last time out, and there are a few back runs that keep him in the same picture as the likely chalk here. He can work out a good trip near the front while stretching out off the even sprint run last out.
#6 Glory Road No doubt he's the one to beat, but it looked that way last time out as well when he settled for a non-threatening second at 4/5, and the price probably isn't getting a whole lot more appealing today.
#4 Bodemeister Wind Steps up while protected for the new team, and Amoss is 23% off the claim the last three years. He's certainly got some upside while moving out of a 9% local operation, but he has a good way to come to get close to a horse like Glory Road.
Race Summary Alterana is occasionally capable of something good enough to win this, and he'll probably offer a fair price with Glory Road likely to command a bunch of attention.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 08:12 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Western Fair - Race #1
Picks Notes
#4 LAST MACH Looks to get back on winning track with new pilot, good value play.
#6 SAM MCKEE HANOVER Vied early, went off stride, rallied first-over, willing finish.
#8 RIVER DALI Post hurts but he's worth a use in gimmick wagers at double-digit odds.
Race Summary Last Mach's three-peat bid was foiled by a troubled start, but he went wire-to-wire in his previous four starts and is too good to pass up at 6-1 on the morning line. Play 4-6 and 4-8 exactas.

Dover Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#5 BLUEBIRD JESSE Classy 7-year-old met better recently, figures right there at this level.
#4 QUIKSILVR BLUECHIP Chased the favorite around the track and inched closer late.
#6 MAJESTIC MARVEL Edged top pair in his last two starts, draws outside.
Race Summary Bluebird Jesse played the lead role in his prior start at this level and just missed against similar rivals that he faces today. The $437k earner looks to add to his gaudy, 24-win resume. Play 5-4 and 5-6 exactas.

Yonkers - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 LADY EAGLE Has speed and the rail, makes fourth start in 20 days.
#2 LIMERENCE Chased 8-5 winner from pocket, caught late for second.
#3 MUFASA AS Sustained first-over rally to defeat 'Eagle' last out.
Race Summary Lady Eagle cleared to the lead and tired in the stretch as the favorite on the class drop. Give her a chance to rebound from the rail. Play 1-2 and 1-3 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 08:12 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 Gp's Amazing Grace Tired running long at Houston and is back to more favorable surroundings as she takes Oklahoma-breds; turns back in distance and wakes up with a big effort.
#1 Rare Poppy Won here last year and finished 2020 with a decent fourth at Remington; capable of a good one in her first off the bench.
#5 Diamond Legacy Was mid-pack in a tougher spot at Fonner and has run well at this level in the past; has won a couple of races here.
Race Summary Gp's Amazing Grace tried tougher company at a longer distance and is favorably placed in a return to her native state.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 River Charmer Improved to fourth in her only start and can makes an impression on the Will Rogers scene; expect a big effort.
#2 Gospel Gina Failed on turf twice at Houston and her last dirt appearance produced a second-place run at Remington; can be on or very near the front end throughout.
#5 Keeping Secrets Was a non-threatening second in her last two at Houston and is back to maiden special weight; has the fitness edge over these and could be tough to hold off.
Race Summary River Charmer ran okay in her only start, which was at two turns; she's back and can be a factor as she is set to improve.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Archrival Stretches out from a good closing second in a sprint here; has been against some decent company for the level and should have no problem getting the trip today.
#1 Town Drunk Comes over from Oaklawn, where he was outrun in some decent sprint; takes a class drop and stretches out. Can be in the mix from the start.
#2 Mayfair Heights Won her last two Remington Park starts and tired in a pair at Houston; can be close to the lead and should be around for the finish of this one.
Race Summary Archrival was bred to be a standout, and while it obvious he won't be that, he's been competitive at a comfortable level and comes off a impressive second in which he was flying at the end of it. Can improve in his second over the strip.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 08:13 AM

Mitchell Newman

Tuesday night comp play on the Trojans and the Bulldogs to land Over the total.

Southern Cal just netted 82 points in their Sunday win over Oregon as that contest landed Over the total. That Over put Andy Enfield's team on a 3-1-1 Over run for their last 5 games contested.

Gonzaga has put up some big numbers so far in this dance, as Mark Few's team has scored 98, 87 and 83 points so far, but they have held Under in 2 of their 3 games thus far. Still, this is a Bulldogs team that averages 91.8 points per game and they have landed Over the total in 7 of their last 10 games played this year.

The Trojans enter this game with a 17-14-1 Over run for the year and I feel sure they will happily engage tonight with the Bulldogs in a fast-paced, up-and-down game tonight that sees the points add up.

USC-Gonzaga to play Over.

2* USC-GONZAGA OVER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-30-2021, 08:14 AM

Trace Adams

Late game for Tuesday between UCLA and # 1 seed Michigan and I am looking for this game to feature some good, solid defense that helps it stay Under the posted total once the 40 minutes of play have concluded.

UCLA did land Over the total in their Sunday win over Alabama, but that is because the teams combined for 36 points in overtime. I don't see overtime tonight and the Bruins did play their previous 2 tournament games Under the total and were Under the posted price in 4 of their previous 7 prior to the Crimson Tide game.

Michigan's defense held Florida State to only 58 points as their Sunday meeting held Under the total. The Wolverines have now held Under the total in 10 of their last 14 games and for the season are 16-11 Under the posted price.

Going to look for the points to be hard to come by in this Bruins-Wolverines contest for the right to play in Saturday's semifinals.

Take the Under in UCLA and Michigan.

1* UCLA-MICHIGAN UNDER