Tuesday 3/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Will Rogers Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:28pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,900 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#6 LADY ABIGAIL (ML=6/1)
#4 EURO STEP (ML=5/1)


LADY ABIGAIL - This mare ran versus the boys last time. In with her own gender today. This mare runs very well off of a vacation. Taking a trip to a lower class rank; has the ability to make her presence felt. EURO STEP - If the speed horses get weary, this mare will kick into high gear. This mare is probably the best closer in the field. True, this horse is coming off a layoff, but this mare runs well fresh. This one has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 36 to 50 to 58 right in a row.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 GP'S AMAZING GRACE (ML=3/1), #1 RARE POPPY (ML=7/2), #3 FINAL DESIGN (ML=4/1),

GP'S AMAZING GRACE - Tough to wager on any steed in a short distance contest if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months. A pattern of lessening Equibase speed figs 69/51/48 for this less than sharp equine. RARE POPPY - Usually I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint contests in order to wager on her. Awfully tough to wager on this entrant when she hasn't been showing any gumption of late. FINAL DESIGN - This mare hasn't had any recent success in sprint races. Difficult to wager on her in this race. Don't believe this entrant will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was pedestrian when compared with today's class rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 LADY ABIGAIL on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #5 - Post: 3:16pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#9 N. K. ROCKET MAN (ML=5/1)
#8 MASTER RECOVERY (ML=9/2)
#7 ULTIMATE MYSTERY (ML=6/1)


N. K. ROCKET MAN - Stand by this horse. No other viable early speed gives this animal a strong chance at the winner's circle. In this race here, this horse has registered the highest speed rating at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. A repeat of that most recent race on Mar 8th where he registered a speed fig of 93 looks good enough to prove victorious in this affair. MASTER RECOVERY - Finished outside the top 3 last out at Santa Anita, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 9/2 makes me think he's got a chance. ULTIMATE MYSTERY - Winless in his last three starts, this gelding did win on January 4th at Turf Paradise versus tougher competition. Finished off the board last out at Turf Paradise, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think he's got a chance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 AUTISM SAVANT (ML=7/2), #4 HOLY MUCHACHO (ML=4/1), #1 MARICOPA COUNTY (ML=5/1),

AUTISM SAVANT - Hard to play this colt today since the race isn't limited to 3 year olds. Finished seventh in his most recent race with a most unsatisfactory speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this group. HOLY MUCHACHO - Hard to wager on these non-winning types at less than generous odds. Garnered a mediocre speed figure last time around the track in a $20,000 Optional Claiming race on Mar 17th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that fig. MARICOPA COUNTY - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as regularly as this one does. When checking today's class figure, he will have to garner a better speed rating than last time around the track to battle in this turf route.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - N. K. ROCKET MAN - I scan the TrackMaster Platinum PPs for this type of horse. Has the top TrackMaster Power Rating by at least 5 points.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 N. K. ROCKET MAN is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[7,8,9] with [7,8,9] with [4,6,7,8,9] with [4,6,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 11 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 80

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 SWEET BLAME 8/1
# 4 COLLOQUIUM 7/2
# 2 QUIET PLEASE 12/1

SWEET BLAME looks to be a solid contender and is a respectable value bet given the line at 8/1. Should best this field here, showing competitive numbers of late. Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong Equibase speed figs (73 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Has been racing soundly in races of this distance, going 5 out of 20 under similar conditions. COLLOQUIUM - With a reliable ROI of +12 this handler has shown very strong results with entries running at this distance and surface. Looks decent against this field and will probably be one of the early speedsters.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Mar 30 '21, 8:08 PM in 39m
NHL | Stars vs Predators
Play on: OVER 5½ +123

27 Dallas at Nashville
Nice price on this game to go over 5 ½ goals. While both teams rank among the middle of the league in 5x5 G+-/60 and Power Play G+-/60, they are both in the botton six in killing off penalties. This poor short handed play from both teams is hard to back with an under selection. With plus money coming our way we look towards a higher scoring affair.
PLAY OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer

Mar 30 '21, 9:10 PM in 1h
NBA | 76ers vs Nuggets
Play on: 76ers +5 -103 at pinnacle

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR TUESDAY, 3/30:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Tuesday is on the Philadelphia 76ers plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets. Philadelphia (32-14) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday with a 122-112 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers. The 76ers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 22 games after winning at least three of their last four games. Philly has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams winning at least 60% of their games — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Denver (28-18) has won two in a row with their 126-102 win in Atlanta on Monday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. The Nuggets are also 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a double-digit victory. Take Philadelphia plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Mar 30 '21, 9:10 PM in 1h
NBA | 76ers vs Nuggets
Play on: Nuggets -5 -107 at pinnacle

Dave's Tuesday Free Play:
1* on Denver Nuggets -5
The Key: The Denver Nuggets were one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending the rim. Well, getting Aaron Gordon from the Magic solves that problem. And the sky is now the limit for this Nuggets team moving forward. They are already playing as well as anyone not named Utah right now. The Nuggets have won 11 of their last 14 games overall. The 76ers have gotten by without Joel Embiid against some bad teams recently, but then they lost last time out by 10 to the Clippers. And I don't think they can hang with the Nuggets without Embiid tonight. Denver is the top-ranked team in offensive efficiency since the start of March. The 76ers are 16-35-3 ATS in their last 54 road games. The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing with one day of rest in between games. Take Denver.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Mar 30 '21, 9:10 PM in 1h
NBA | 76ers vs Nuggets
Play on: Nuggets -4 -115 at linepros

FREE PICK - Denver Nuggets -4
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 504
I gave out the Nuggets -4.5 as a free pick on Sunday and cashed an easy winner, as they laid it on the Hawks -5. I will gladly take my chances with Denver laying basically the same number on Tuesday against the 76ers.
I know Philadelphia is better than Atlanta, but that was an extreme discount we were getting with the Nuggets in that game. Still a lot of value here with this number. Let's also not forget we are talking about a 76ers team that is without their best player right now in Joel Embiid.
I know Philadelphia won and covered a bunch of games right after Embiid went down, but it's not uncommon for a team to turn it up a notch after one of their best player gets hurt. It's just hard to sustain that level of play and I think we are seeing the 76ers start to feel Embiid's absence. They just lost by double-digits at the Clippers in Doc Rivers first game back against his old team.
I just think people are sleeping on this Nuggets team. The addition of Aaron Gordon might be the most underrated move a team made at the deadline. Gordon gives them a lot more with the starting 5 than the aging Paul Millsap and it also allows Millsap to flourish in a more limited role. All 5 starters scored in double-digits in their win over the Hawks. I think they roll here. Give me Denver -4!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Mar 30 '21, 9:57 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | UCLA vs Michigan
Play on: UCLA +7 -114 at Draft Kings

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: UCLA +7
I was definitely skeptical of UCLA going into the Alabama game and very high on the Crimson Tide -5.5 in that game for one of my few losses of the NCAA Tournament. But the Bruins impressed me, and I think they are undervalued here as even bigger underdogs to Michigan in the Elite 8 tonight.
Alabama is better than Michigan without Isaiah Livers. I know the Wolverines have moved on fine without him to this point, but at some point it will catch up with them. And I think when you consider Michigan was only a 4-point favorite over LSU and a 1.5-point favorite over Florida State, getting 7 points with UCLA is a nice value.
UCLA is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament with three outright upsets as underdogs. They just feel like they can't lose at this point with that 14-point comeback against Michigan State in the play-in game. They showed some great poise after giving up an 11-point halftime lead to Alabama, and with the Crimson Tide hitting a 3-pointer at the buzzer to tie it. They went on to score 23 points in overtime against one of the best defenses in the country. They won't be phased when this one is close late. Bet UCLA Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Mar 30 '21, 10:10 PM in 2h
NBA | Magic vs Clippers
Play on: UNDER 215½ -113

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Magic/Clippers UNDER 215.5
The Magic are in a world of hurt offensively right now after trading Vucevic, Fournier and Gordon away. They were already a poor offensive team without them. They will have to rely on their defense to keep them in games moving forward. The Magic have been held to less than 100 pints in six of their last nine games overall, which is really poor in today's NBA. The Clippers won't be looking to push the tempo playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. And they could be short-handed as well with several key players either out or questionable. The UNDER is 4-0 in Magic last four road games. The UNDER is 12-3-1 in Clippers last 16 games against a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 5-2 in Clippers last seven games when playing the second of a back-to-back. The UNDER is 18-7-2 in the last 27 meetings. Give me the UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

501CHARLOTTE -502 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 203-247 ATS (-68.7 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.

503PHILADELPHIA -504 DENVER
PHILADELPHIA is 18-4 ATS (13.6 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games in the current season.

505ATLANTA -506 PHOENIX
PHOENIX is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games in the current season.

507ORLANDO -508 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 66-44 ATS (17.6 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Tuesday, March 30

Charlotte @ Washington
Hornets (23-22)
— Charlotte won seven of its last 11 games SU.
— Hornets are 5-7 ATS in their last doze road games.
— Under is 5-1 in Charlotte’s last six games.

Wizards (17-28)
— Wizards split its last six games SU.
— Washington is 7-3 ATS if it played night before.
— Wizards are 9-4 ATS in last thirteen home games.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Under is 3-2 in their last five games

— Charlotte won five of last seven series games.
— Hornets are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Washington.
— Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

Philadelphia @ Denver
76ers (32-14)
— 76ers won 15 of their last 19 games.
— Sixers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
— Under is 6-2 in Philly’s last eight road games.

Nuggets (28-18)
— Denver is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games overall.
— Nuggets are 3-5 ATS in last eight home games.
— Over is 4-1 in Denver’s last five home games.

— Philly is 5-3 in last eight series games.
— 76ers covered four of last five visits to Denver.
— Under is 6-3-1 in last ten series games.

Orlando @ LA Clippers
Magic (15-31)
— Orlando lost 21 of its last 27 games.
— Magic is 6-2 ATS in last eight games overall.
— Under is 8-1 in their last nine road games.

Clippers (32-16)
— Clippers won/covered their last six games.
— Clippers are 9-2 ATS in last 11 home games.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.

— Clippers won last ten series games (7-3 ATS)
— Magic is 2-2 ATS in last four series games played here.
— Under is 6-1-1 in last eight series games.

Atlanta @ Phoenix
Hawks (23-23)
— Hawks lost three of their last four games.
— Hawks are 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.

Suns (31-14)
— Phoenix won 23 of its last 29 games (21-8 ATS).
— Suns are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

— Atlanta won four of last five series games.
— Hawks are 1-3-1 ATS in last five visits to Phoenix.
— Under is 7-3 in last ten series games, 0-2 in last two.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Tuesday, March 30

Trend Report

Charlotte @ Washington
Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Charlotte's last 11 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Washington's last 11 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Washington is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Charlotte

Philadelphia @ Denver
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Denver
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Denver
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games at home

Orlando @ LA Clippers
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Atlanta @ Phoenix
Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Atlanta is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoop Trends for Tuesday March 30
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Atlanta at Phoenix (10:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Hawks are 14-0 ATS (11.57 ppg) off a loss as a dog where they were outscored by at least 10 points in the paint.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Philadelphia at Denver (9:10 p.m. ET)

-- The 76ers are 0-11 ATS (-4.95 ppg) after a game as a road dog in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Charlotte at Washington (7:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Wizards are 8-0 OU (14.62 ppg) at home after Russell Westbrook had a triple double last game.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Orlando at L.A. Clippers (10:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Magic are 0-12 OU (-10.38 ppg) off a road loss in which they scored 15 or more points in the second half than the first half.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

657USC -658 GONZAGA
USC is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

659UCLA -660 MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game in the current season.

659UCLA -660 MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Tuesday, March 30

UCLA (11) vs Michigan (1)
UCLA (21-9)
— ranked #16 by KenPom
— Tempo: #337
— Experience: #279
— Continuity: #29
— Two of UCLA’s four tournament wins have been in overtime.
— UCLA is shooting 37.2% on the arc (#34)
— Bruins are 8-7 vs teams ranked in top 50.
— Since 2009, UCLA is 12-7 in NCAAs.
— Two Bruins played 42:00/45:00 in Sunday’s win.
— This is Cronin’s 12th NCAA Tournament, his first regional final.
— Pac-12 teams are 12-2 in this tournament; one of losses was Oregon vs USC.

Michigan (23-4)
— ranked #4 by KenPom
— Tempo: #247
— Experience: #58
— Continuity: #145
— Michigan is 5-3 in its last eight games, after an 18-1 start.
— Key player Livers missed last four games (check status)
— Michigan has #7 eFG% defense in country.
— Wolverines are shooting 38.3% on arc (#11)
— Michigan scored 81.3 ppg in its first three NCAA games.
— Michigan made Final Four in 2018, lost regional final in 2014.

— Since 2002, #10 or lower seeds are 7-2 ATS in regional finals.
— Since 2010, #1-seeds are 9-13-1 ATS in regional finals.

USC (6) vs Gonzaga (1)
USC (25-7)
— ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #234
— Experience: #201
— Continuity: #317
— USC won six of its last seven games.
— USC has #6 eFG% defense in country.
— Opponents are shooting 41.5% inside arc (#1)
— Trojans are shooting only 64.6% on foul line (#327)
— USC gave up 58.3 ppg in its first three tourney wins.
— USC scored 79.7 ppg in its first three tourney games.
— Pac-12 teams are 12-2 SU in this tournament.

Gonzaga (29-0)
— ranked #1 by KenPom
— Tempo: #6
— Experience: #248
— Continuity: #179
— Gonzaga has one win this season by less than 10 points.
— Gonzaga’s first three tournament wins were by 43-16-18 points.
— Zags are shooting 63.9% inside arc (#1)
— Gonzaga gets 57.3% of its points on 2-point shots (#29)
— Under Few, Gonzaga is 1-2 in Elite 8 games- they won in 2017.

— Since 2010, #1-seeds are 9-13-1 ATS in regional finals.