Thursday 4/1/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns

Apr 01 '21, 7:08 PM in 4h
NHL | Capitals vs Islanders
Play on: Islanders -125 at Draft Kings

Last night, I successfully played against the Jets, noting that they were in a tough spot, due to playing their first game back home from a long and successful road trip. Here's an excerpt from that writeup: "The Jets are playing their first game back home off a 7-game road trip. While the trip was successful and was closed out with a 5-1 win, the first game back home from a long trip can often be tough. Its a lot tougher when the best team in the division is motivated and waiting for them ... "
Its important to remember that not all "first game back" situations are equal though. Tonight, the Isles are playing their first home game since 3/20. In this case, however, they actually only played four road games (as opposed to seven) and, unlike the Jets, the Isles never had to leave their own time zone. Also, the trip was not entirely successful, as they lost the final two games. What I'm trying to say is that I don't expect them to struggle the way that Winnipeg did. Its worth mentioning that the Isles are a perfect 5-0 their last five home games, following a road trip of seven or more days. More? The Isles are also 9-1 their last 10, after allowing two goals or less, in their previous game. Consider New York.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

Apr 01 '21, 7:08 PM in 4h
NHL | Rangers vs Sabres
Play on: Sabres +1½ -114 at pinnacle

The set-up: Surprise, surprise, the Sabres finally broke their 17-game losing streak. Buffalo posted the 6-1 win over Philadelphia last night and I think it'll keep the foot on the gas here as it tries to string a couple victories together in a row. Good value here on the PUCK LINE in my opinion. The Sabres have been much more competitive (finally!) over their last three games and they play with revenge here after falling to the Rangers 5-3 in their most recent matchup two weeks ago.
The pick: The Rangers broke a two-game slide with a 5-2 win at Washington in their most recent matchup. New York has looked fantastic over the last month, but I think it'll have its hands full with this hungry, and now confident (and revenge-minded!) home team. Consider the Sabres on the PUCK LINE Thursday.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Sabres.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Apr 01 '21, 7:08 PM in 4h
NHL | Rangers vs Sabres
Play on: Rangers -230 at Mirage

1* Free Pick on Rangers -230

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy

Apr 01 '21, 7:08 PM in 4h
NHL | Blue Jackets vs Lightning
Play on: UNDER 5½ -115

Thursday NHL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Columbus and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Thursday.
The Lightning have now lost three games in a row, including a 3-1 loss to the Blue Jackets here in Tampa two nights ago. We won with the 'under' in that contest and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Note that the Blue Jackets have seen the 'under' go a perfect 6-0 when coming off a road win this season, with Columbus averaging just 1.3 goals per game in that situation. The 'under' is also 32-15 when the Jackets come off a win by two goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. The Lightning have failed to score more than three goals in their last four games and I look for them to tighten things up in their own end here, noting that they allow just 2.1 goals per game on home ice this season. They've allowed just 2.2 goals per game when following a game where they were held to a goal or less over the last two seasons. The Blue Jackets check in having allowed more than three goals just twice in their last nine contests. Take the under (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Apr 01 '21, 8:10 PM in 5h
NBA | Magic vs Pelicans
Play on: Magic +9 -105 at pinnacle

Dave's Thursday Free Play:
1* on Orlando Magic +9
The Key: I like the price we are getting on the Orlando Magic tonight. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall with upset wins over the Suns as 9.5-point dogs and the Clippers as 11-point dogs, so they can clearly play with the Pelicans. They were even competitive in their 2 losses in losing by just 3 as 7-point dogs to the Lakers and by 7 as 9.5-point dogs to the Blazers. The Pelicans are starting to get too much respect after going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. The Pelicans are just 1-5 ATS as a favorite of 7.5 points or more this season. New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games against a team that wins less than 40% of their games. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 matchups with the Pelicans. Take Orlando.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander

Apr 01 '21, 8:10 PM in 5h
NBA | Magic vs Pelicans
Play on: Magic +9 -103 at pinnacle

1* NBA - Magic/Pelicans *FREE PICK* on Magic +9
Thursday's free NBA pick is on the Orlando Magic as a 9-point road dog against the New Orleans Pelicans. The perception with Orlando is they traded away all their good players and are going to be awful. While they might not win a lot of games, they will continue to be a good bet if the books keep inflating the lines on the other team. Magic have covered 4 straight and just won outright at LAC as a 11.5-point dog on Tuesday. Pelicans are in a decent fade spot, coming off that big win at Boston and having won and covered 4 of their last 5. There's also a chance the Pelicans could be without Zion. He's questionable with a thumb injury. Bet the Magic +9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Apr 01 '21, 8:40 PM in 6h
NBA | Hawks vs Spurs
Play on: Hawks -1 -106 at pinnacle

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Atlanta Hawks -1
The San Antonio Spurs have been struggling in going 2-5 SU in their last seven games overall. They are coming off a win last night against the Sacramento Kings, but that just means they will now be playing the second of a back-to-back. They will also be playing their 12th game in 19 days which is about as tough a rest situation as any team has been in this season. The Hawks had yesterday off and will be looking to bounce back from two straight road losses to Denver and Phoenix, two of the best teams in the Western Conference. The Spurs are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games off a home win. The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as favorites. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games off a win by more than 10 points. Give me the Hawks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Apr 01 '21, 10:10 PM in 7h
NBA | Nuggets vs Clippers
Play on: Nuggets -1 -112 at linepros

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Denver Nuggets -1
The Denver Nuggets are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games overall. They have been the most efficient offensive team in the NBA since the beginning of March, and they just covered up their biggest weakness by adding Aaron Gordon before the trade deadline to help protect the rim. This is a very dangerous Nuggets team moving forward.
The Los Angeles Clippers are a tired team right now playing their 6th game in 9 days. Injuries have started to pile up as they will be without Paul George, Patrick Beverly, Serge Ibaka and Rajon Rondo and could be without Marcus Morris tonight. That puts a lot on Kawhi Leonard's shoulders, and he wasn't able to do enough last time out as the Clippers were upset 96-103 by the Orlando Magic as 11-point favorites.
Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Denver) - revenging a home loss against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a home favorite are 36-11 (76.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet the Nuggets Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson

Apr 01 '21, 10:10 PM in 7h
NBA | Nuggets vs Clippers
Play on: Nuggets -1½ -110 at BetCris

12-1 92% last 13 FREE plays!
Rocketman Sports FREE NBA play Thursday 4-1-21
Denver @ LA Clippers (10:10 PM EST)
Play On: Denver -1 1/2
The Denver Nuggets travel to Los Angeles to take on the Clippers on Thursday night. Denver is 29-18 SU overall this year while the LA Clippers comes in with a 32-17 SU overall record on the season. Denver is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS this year when revenging a home loss vs an opponent. Paul George, Rondo, Beverley and Ibaka are all out tonight for this one. Denver is 4-0 ATS last 4 games when playing on 1 days rest. Denver is 5-1 ATS last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Denver is 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a favorite. Denver is 6-2 ATS last 8 road games. Denver is 5-2 ATS last 7 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Denver tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan

Apr 01 '21, 10:10 PM in 7h
MLB | Giants vs Mariners
Play on: Mariners -103 at pinnacle

Seattle -110
The Mariners are worth a flyer. The Giants finished just 3-7 in their last 10 road games last season and have always struggled on the road. Look for Seattle to get on them early here.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Thursday 5* Free MLB ML Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Apr 01 '21, 10:38 PM in 8h
NHL | Wild vs Golden Knights
Play on: Wild +153 at Draft Kings

Free Pick on Wild

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AL East Betting Odds
Matt Blunt

2021 AL East Division Odds

New York Yankees -200
Tampa Bay Rays +350
Toronto Blue Jays +350
Boston Red Sox +2000
Baltimore Orioles +5200

There are a few interesting things about the prices offered for the AL East division as a -200 price tag on the Yankees does make it feel somewhat like a foregone conclusion. But as you'll see with the win totals numbers for Toronto (86.5), Tampa Bay (85.5) and Boston (80.5), I'm not sure the price gap between the Red Sox and the Rays and Blue Jays makes the most sense.

However, I've been generally higher than market on Boston the past two seasons with an awful success rate, so it's hard to decide if there is even anything to do with these prices on the basis of that thought. The AL East should be the Yankees to lose, and even with these division futures prices, it may be best to wait regardless.

Unless New York comes out of the gate stinking up the joint and one of Tampa/Toronto starts on fire, chances are the prices on Tampa/Toronto will only grow in their offerings. The Yankees are likely to always be looming at the top of the division all year long, and whomever they are chasing in those scenarios won't have too many cents shaved off these current prices should that be the case in May/June/July etc.

And if the Yankees play front runners the entire way? Any beliefs in the Rays/Jays or even Red Sox will be getting a better payback during that same part of the season.

Still don't see the Yankees losing this division as they've even shown us in recent years that even getting decimated by injuries doesn't seem to slow them down all that much, and over the course of a full season, the talent they've got from top to bottom should pay off. That thought does make it tough to get involved in division prices for the AL East though.

2021 American League Pennant Odds

New York Yankees +230
Tampa Bay Rays +850
Toronto Blue Jays +875
Boston Red Sox +2300
Baltimore Orioles +4000

The Yankees are the overall favorites in the entire American League, so keep that in mind with any Yankees. The last few years we've had one World Series entrant be one of the heavier league favorites (Dodgers in their WS appearances, Houston in there as well) and the other league champion maybe coming from a little further back. The case for the Yankees is definitely there if bettors believe the NL will be the more wide open league in the end, and if the scenario where the Yankees are front runners for most of the year, the price on them won't be getting any cheaper.

Interesting to seemingly get another value on what “playoff experience” could mean with the Rays 25 cents cheaper to repeat as AL Champs over the young Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto's actually got better prices than Tampa in future markets on win totals and playoffs yes/no props, so suggesting that Toronto will figure it out enough to make the playoffs but maybe have a tougher time figuring out how to go on a run does make sense.

Still think that the same thinking applies with the Rays/Jays for the Pennant as it does for the Division, in that waiting until the middle of the year isn't going to hurt anything. Even with one of them sitting in top spot, it means there is quality chasing them elsewhere, and getting through playoff series against those teams still is incorporated.

Tough to advocate for any long shot option on the other two teams, although the Orioles are probably the best of the “worst” (teams expected to finish last in respective divisions), and a flyer on them to go from worst to first and run through the playoffs isn't the worst of the bad options out there.

Playing in front of 35% capacity is something Baltimore's had experience with for years should that be the case for MLB starting the season on time, and they play in a ballpark where if you get the timely “bloop and a blast” often, who knows how many large winning streaks a team can rattle off in a row. Most of that is out on Pipe Dream Island though.

D.J. LeMahieu and the Yankees seek only their second AL East title in the last nine seasons. (AP)

2021 World Series Odds

New York Yankees +550
Tampa Bay Rays +2200
Toronto Blue Jays +2500
Boston Red Sox +5000
Baltimore Orioles +10000

Again the price flip between Toronto and Tampa can be a talking point, because if the Jays quickly figure out how to win the postseason, they are the type of team built to have streaky success like that. Relative to the pressure Tampa would face in each passing round trying to repeat.

Waiting on both still might be the best option though, as thinking Tampa is built like the Dodgers to go the route of winning a title after recently losing one is tough, and if there are multiple playoff series for Toronto this year they'll be a likely underdog in at least one of them. Round by round might be the path to take with Toronto.

This is where it makes the most sense to get heavily involved with the Yankees for those that are so inclined. Any front running season from New York won't have a better price on the Yankees, and most seasons that aren't of that nature have them finding their way into the playoffs in some fashion.

This team has done it all but get to a World Series in recent seasons, and getting there this year when you've got a +550 ticket on the Yankees already in pocket would be a nice feeling.

MLB Win Totals Odds

N.Y. Yankees 95.5
Toronto 86.5
Tampa Bay 85.5
Boston 80.5
Baltimore 64.5

This is the spot where opinions on the Red Sox are going to show up on both sides, as it's not like they don't have some quality pieces still in their uniform. Devers, Bogaerts, Martinez, Renfroe, and Verdugo can produce with the bats just fine relative to the rest of the league, and how improved one believes the Blue Jays to be or how sustainable this version of the Rays is influences those decisions as well.

All three of the win totals in the 80's may be better to avoid in the long term though. Coming down to the final few games of the year for any 'overs' on Tampa Bay, Toronto, or Boston is a sweat that's easily avoidable if you just let those chips fall where they may.

Baltimore 'over' 64.5 is a curious case, because their .417 winning percentage projected out to a full 162-season would have landed them with 67.5 wins a year ago, and who's left to scoop up all those wins if Tampa's play from a year ago isn't sustained, Toronto's not as improved as believed, and Boston's slide is as expected?

The Yankees will get their fair share in that scenario, but so will the Orioles, and they can actually be worse than a year ago with a .401 winning percentage and still get to 65 wins. Intriguing to say the least.

2021 AL East Playoff Props

New York Yankees: Yes -1000; No +600
Tampa Bay Rays: Yes +110; No -137
Toronto Blue Jays: Yes -112; No -112
Boston Red Sox: Yes +275; No -375
Baltimore Orioles: N/A

Not sure any team/price combo is worth serious thought outside of those who are overly high on the Red Sox and believe they'll have their act together from start to finish and cash a +275 “Yes” ticket.

You are likely only rooting for unforeseeable disaster for a Yankees “No” to cash, and with a wide range of results on the spectrum for Tampa and Toronto, the prices on them are going to be close to where they should be regardless of perspective, and not needed to be bothered with.

MLB Most Valuable Player Odds

Aaron Judge (New York) +1200
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (Toronto) +2500
Gleyber Torres (New York) +2500
Rafael Devers (Boston) +3000
George Springer (Toronto) +3000
Bo Bichette (Toronto) +3300
Xander Bogaerts (Boston) +3300
D.J. LeMahieu (New York) +3300
Giancarlo Stanton (New York) +4000
Randy Arozarena (Tampa Bay) +5000
J.D. Martinez (Boston) +5000
Austin Meadows (Tampa Bay) +5000

One of the three Red Sox players listed here would likely have to be close to a runaway winner should Boston's season be one well through their ceiling with playoffs and division titles accomplished. It's only logical then to add at least one of those names to your portfolio should Boston “yes” on playoffs, 'over' on season wins, or “yes” on Division/Pennant already be in your pocket.

For any of that to happen for the Red Sox they are going to have to ride tremendous play from one of those stars, and Devers being the cheapest one at +3000 is still a nice payday.

What George Springer brings to the Blue Jays is a huge question mark in Toronto this year, as they are hoping for huge things from the former World Series MVP. The last AL MVP to win the award in his first year with a new team just so happened to come with this Toronto organization when Josh Donaldson won it in 2015, and any year that has the Jays with a division crown and/or deep playoff run likely has Springer having a big role in that success.

But if the Yankees go on to win the AL East by 8+ games as the win totals and division odds suggest, personal preference on those names is probably the best place to start.

If the idea that the ball is going to be a little “deader” this year, I think that will hurt the pure power guys more, and emphasize doubles and keeping the lineup churning. Gleyber Torres would be my choice because of where he will sit in the lineup and the likelihood of others around him getting more respect.

But even with all the great names this division has, it all might be a fool's errand in the end. Only two of the last 12 AL MVP's have come from this division, with Donaldson's in 2015 being one, and Mookie Betts' win in 2018. The other two divisions in the American League are tied with five apiece in that same span.

2021 AL East Cy Young Contenders

Gerrit Cole (New York) +350
Tyler Glasnow (Tampa Bay) +950
Hyun-Jin Ryu (Toronto) +1300
Corey Kluber (New York) +1800
Luis Severino (New York) +3000
Nate Pearson (Toronto) +3300

Nearly all the ballparks in the AL East aren't the best for anyone's Cy Young prospects, but two of the last five winners have come from this division. Again it's Yankees heavy at the top and Kluber already owns two of these awards, while Gerrit Cole probably feels like he's deserved one by now.

Cole, Glasnow, and Ryu are three of the top five in prices overall as something to consider, and any Nate Pearson consideration in this conversation means that backing him for AL ROY at +1500 is probably the better route to go.

Guys can come out of nowhere to win this award though, as someone like Blake Snell did a few years back, although it's tough to see anyone in this division consistently shutdown the bats they are facing most often to beat out similar candidates in other divisions where the offenses aren't so lethal every night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AL Central Betting Odds
Matt Blunt

2021 AL Central Division Odds

Chicago White Sox -130
Minnesota Twins +150
Cleveland Indians +700
Kansas City Royals +4000
Detroit Tigers +6000

No 60-game schedule this year means that the random luck aspect of any play on the Royals or Tigers to win the division is completely gone as well, making the AL Central a three-team race tops.

Cleveland selling off some of their best players in the offseason might have many seeing this division as just a two-team race between Chicago and Minnesota, and that does make a lot of sense.

It will be the AL division where pitching and defense will be more influential on a nightly basis then in other divisions, and Cleveland's still a team that's comfortable winning 5-3 type games.

Not sure they'll have enough to get past both Minnesota and Chicago to win the Central, which does leave the door open on the debate between Chicago and Minnesota.

All three of those teams finished within a game of one another in the AL Central standings last year, and it is interesting to see Chicago being the organization expected to sustain it. It was Minnesota who went 101-61 in the 2019 season, and it was the Twins who finished ahead of the other two last year in the shortened campaign.

The three teams also played to near exactly dead even luck last year with the Twins 0, White Sox -1, and Indians 0 in their Pythagorean wins from that 60-game season. 2019 saw Cleveland be a dead even 0 in the luck department again, with Chicago finishing at +3 (off a 72-89 SU record) and Minnesota finishing at +4 (off a 101-61 SU record).

An extra “lucky” win in 2019 for the Twins when they were already nearly 30 games better than Chicago suggests to me that the two-time defending division champs probably should be priced as the favorite.

Grabbing the plus-money with Minnesota is the direction it'd be near impossible to talk me out of for this futures prop.

2021 American League Pennant Odds

Chicago White Sox +380
Minnesota Twins +750
Cleveland Indians +2000
Kansas City Royals +5000
Detroit Tigers +6000

Chicago's really getting plenty of respect in these futures as you'll see with the list of names for the individual awards, as well as other things like win totals and playoff yes/no props that can be rather suggestive in painting a perspective.

The White Sox may have the reigning MVP in Abreu, and six of the top seven AL MVP odds for players from this division this year are White Sox players, but I can't agree with Chicago being the 2nd favorite behind the Yankees in the American League by this wide of a margin. New York's at +230, Chicago's +380, and the next team is Minnesota at +750.

I'm not sure I agree with the Twins being priced as the 3rd favorite either, but that only furthers the argument that neither Chicago nor Minnesota are really on the radar for AL Pennant prices right now.

Kansas City and Detroit would need a season for the ages to get all the way to the World Series, and Detroit's best angle this year is the stated goal to get Miguel Cabrera to 500 HR's and 3,000 hits might make them an 'over' bettor's dream.

Which leaves Cleveland as probably the best value play from this division to represent the American League in the 2021 World Series, although that's still a rather big ask. Cleveland would need a dominant season from their pitching staff the entire way, with timely hitting and health carrying the offensive needs.

The price is right to entertain some Cleveland thoughts, but even with a great year ending in a division title, Cleveland's pitching staff will still have to go through likely AL East and AL West powerhouses who are built to win with the bats. Asking the staff to hold up for multiple series like that and winning 4-3 games is going to be tough.

AL MVP Jose Abreu (R) and the White Sox look for a division title after a playoff appearance in 2020. (AP)

2021 World Series Odds

Chicago White Sox +850
Minnesota Twins +2000
Cleveland Indians +4000
Kansas City Royals +10000
Detroit Tigers +10000

This is where putting White Sox and/or Twins futures in your pocket probably makes the most sense if you want to call it that. Chicago and Minnesota are still priced as the 2nd and 3rd best team in the American League in this market, but that's where they were in the AL Pennant odds as well.

Asking them to win just one more series (albeit against the best from the National League this year) for better than double the price on both of them to just win the pennant, the payoff is there to take on added risk.

Theoretically, the teams that come into a season that are expected to be 2nd and 3rd best in the American League have to be considered as strong contenders to make the World Series to begin with.

If one of these two teams ends up getting there and playing up to that market expectation, with bettors who agree with this market perspective at a bare minimum, (likely believing the Twins or White Sox are still undervalued/rated) will be sitting awfully pretty if a preseason World Series future ticket at those prices gets there in the fall.

MLB Win Totals Odds

Chicago White Sox 91.5
Minnesota Twins 88.5
Cleveland Indians 81.5
Kansas City Royals 72.5
Detroit Tigers 68.5

Like the other divisions in the American League, the best way to get involved with any of the projected bottom feeders is with the over/under option on season wins. The respective win percentages fro the Royals (.433) and Tigers (.397) last year extrapolate out to about 70 and 65 wins respectively, putting KC and Detroit still under their numbers.

That strategy would have you running into some issues with the other three teams though, as they all were so close with their win percentage numbers (Minnesota .600, Cleveland and Chicago at .583) that the easy answer would be to play the 'overs' in all three cases.

Could it turn out that way in the AL Central? Sure, the White Sox, Royals, and Indians could all beat up on the other two squads and trade games with one another relative to their projections and Chicago, Minnesota, and Cleveland could all cash win total 'overs.'

But banking on it happening before the season begins is something too tough to significantly get behind.

Meaning the opinion a bettor has on the 2021 Cleveland Indians is likely going to color how they tend to see the rest of the division. Should a decline be swift and steep for Cleveland this year, the two teams above them are likely cashing 'over' tickets as is one team below the Indians.

If Cleveland's demise is greatly exaggerated for some, then an Indians 'over' bet has to be fired on , as 82 wins is basically a .500 season. It means shifting to the 'under' on one of the White Sox/Twins in all likelihood, and seeing one of those two basement dwellers cash an 'under' ticket as well.

Overall, it does make the win total props in this division tough to break down, because it's always going to be colored by individual perspectives on multiple teams. And most of those perspectives (good and bad) have plenty of value points behind them.

MLB Win Playoff Prop Odds

Chicago White Sox: Yes -275; No +210
Minnesota Twins: Yes -157; No +125
Cleveland Indians: Yes +230; No -305
Kansas City Royals: Yes +1000; No -5000
Detroit Tigers: Yes +5000; No N/A

Because I do believe there is such a wide range of outcomes for all three of the teams expected to be at the top in this division (and from the two expected to be at the bottom as well), there are only two of these playoff props that would be somewhat appealing: Cleveland on the Yes at +230 and Chicago on the No at +210.

It's understandable that it's hard to figure a team with the reigning MVP like Chicago could lay an egg for the entire season, but making the playoffs with a reigning AL MVP on your team has only happened once the past few years.

All of Trout's recent MVP wins haven't translated into playoff berths the following year for LA, and a year after Mookie Betts won the 2018 award in Boston was packing up for winter after Game 162 and hatched ideas of moving on from Betts entirely.

The White Sox have done everything right on paper which is probably why the idea of their 36-24 season last year not being considered “fluky” never really comes up.

They are built on both sides of the diamond to dominate this division, but who knows how dark the timeline gets for Chicago in 2021, and if something like injuries start a derail of their season. It's not like it would be the first time an expected World Series contender comes nowhere close to that expectation in the end.

Cleveland on the Yes would be forcing my hand into siding with the idea that the Indians demise may not arrive just yet. Hell, the organization said they'd get rid of the nickname for obvious reasons, but then get to keep it for another year.

Maybe that's how the play goes on the field for the 2021 Indians, as their pitching staff continues to mow down everyone, the timely hits with runners in scoring position continues as it did when Lindor was in town and often the catalyst for those types of rallies, and the demise of the Indians in the AL Central standings is like their nickname and still at least a year from being fully realized.

Not suggesting that happens, but to fully get behind a 'Yes' wager on Cleveland to make the playoffs, there should probably be some belief that Cleveland will being playing that type of baseball for the majority of the days each week.

MLB Most Valuable Player Odds

Jose Ramirez (Cleveland) +1200
Jose Abreu (Chicago) +2500
Yoan Moncada (Chicago) +2500
Luis Robert (Chicago) +2500
Yasmani Grandal (Chicago) +3000
Eloy Jimenez (Chicago) +3000
Tim Anderson (Chicago) +3300
Josh Donaldson (Minnesota) +5000

Any 'Yes' on Cleveland's playoff prop should probably have some correlation with adding a Jose Ramirez MVP futures play to the portfolio as well.

There are a lot of ways Cleveland can sneak into the playoffs without a MVP performance from Ramirez, but the high end of the Indians range in 2021 ends with a division title, likely threatening 100 wins, and either a MVP or Cy Young award winner in their locker room.

Ramirez doesn't get listed with much better odds than two thirds of Chicago's lineup that follows without having a legitimate path there. A great season from Cleveland likely leaves little options for who is their MVP.

The favored White Sox could have any one of a number of guys be their best player for the season in their high end ranges for results, and it makes picking a name from their list hard as well.

With all the offensive firepower teams in other divisions in the American League have, any offensive player from the AL Central might always be a little bit overlooked. Abreu wasn't last year, but that came after six straight years of the AL MVP coming from a different American League division.

A pitcher from the AL Central listed way down the board is always a way to go for AL Central selections, but the key to success for any of the three teams expected to be at the top of this division is going to be overall balance. Balance doesn't help in the MVP voting process.

MLB Cy Young Odds

Shane Bieber (Cleveland) +400
Lucas Giolito (Chicago) +450
Jose Berrios (Minnesota) +1700
Lance Lynn (Chicago) +1700
Kenta Maeda (Minnesota) +2000
Dallas Keuchel (Chicago) +2200

No American League Cy Young winner has won the award in consecutive years since Pedro Martinez did it in 1999 and 2000. That doesn't bode well for Shane Bieber at the top of this list, but again, any highly positive outlook on Cleveland has to include Bieber having a big part in that success.

The price is probably what should keep bettors away from backing a guy trying to be the first to repeat in 20 years, and it's going to be harder to give him credit if his team finishes 3rd again in a full 162-game slate. The cases for others around him on better teams will always be there.

There are also only nine names for the entire American League priced at +2000 or lower right now, and to have five of them come from this division does give choice to the bettor.

You do probably have to have a guy from the division winner in this division to have the best shot at connecting with the selection, and that leads us back to all the previous questions that have been asked on the differing perspectives of where many can see Cleveland, Minnesota, and Chicago finishing this year.

But for the same reason it makes sense to avoid AL Central hitters for the MVP with all the sluggers elsewhere, it makes sense to hone in on pitchers from the AL Central for the Cy Young award if overall hitting/scoring is going to be relatively lower in this division compared to the others.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AL West Betting Odds
Matt Blunt

2021 AL West Division Odds

Houston Astros +120
Oakland Athletics +150
Los Angeles Angels +375
Seattle Mariners +2600
Texas Rangers +4000

The AL West should be a case of the haves and have nots this year, as the Mariners and Rangers are expected to be relative door mats if these division odds hold somewhat true to form. I'm not entirely sure I agree with Texas getting far less credit then Seattle this year, but outside of looking to back the Rangers in early head-to-head meetings, that opinion isn't going to matter much long term in the AL West.

The Angels are going to be that organization that can teeter on taking the next step, but they've also found plenty of creative ways to not give Mike Trout an opportunity at playing playoff baseball the past six seasons that you could start a pool on how it will happen to them in 2021. The pitching is still going to have questions to be answered but when you've got the money the Angels have in position players that's to be expected. For those that are high on the Angels, a piece of the +375 Division crown price makes sense, as Trout's only playoff appearance came with an AL West banner as well.

Oakland comes in as the defending champs, as they trust how they operate there and it's tough to argue against the results. Three straight playoff appearances haven't brought the desired postseason success, but they are also a hard organization to go against with all the past success they've had. Since moving to Oakland in 1968, the A's have won 17 Division titles and have had streaks of five straight, three straight, and two straight (twice) in that time. Identical 97-65 SU records weren't good enough to knock off the Astros in the trash can's heyday, so it's not like Oakland hasn't been building this for a while. Can't fault anyone for siding with them at +150.

Houston's the understandable favorite with how they look on paper, and should their pitching alone live up to past form, the Astros will win a lot of games. We will get to see just how important George Springer was at the top of their lineup though with Springer now in Toronto, and we still haven't seen this core deal with angry fans across the entire league. How a bettor believes Houston will respond to those changes will influence whether a play on them to win this division is made or not.

Despite having one of the best players in Mike Trout, the Los Angeles Angels aren't listed as the top betting choice to win the AL West. (AP)

2021 American League Pennant Odds

Oakland Athletics +900
Houston Astros +1000
Los Angeles Angels +2000
Seattle Mariners +5000
Texas Rangers +5000

Hard not to look at this batch of futures odds for AL West teams and formulate some shaded opinions on other futures markets. For instance, if a bettor sides with the idea that Oakland being considered more likely to win the AL compared to Houston, with the respective playoff records side by side is correct, it makes any Oakland division winner prop or Playoffs: Yes prop option with the A's the better option.

The Angels are that wildcard team here in that their ceiling should be rolling into the playoffs and getting hot at the right time, so a long term investment in hoping the Angels figure it out this year isn't the worst option either.

2021 World Series Odds

Houston Astros +2200
Oakland Athletics +2500
Los Angeles Angels +4400
Seattle Mariners +10000
Texas Rangers +15000

Hard to think the Astros run away with this division even at their best, so even though they've been priced back in as the team with the best odds again, you can probably get a better price on them during the year. There is a strong case to be made for that being the situation with Oakland and LA as well, but again it comes down to the Angels having the highest odds and most realistic chance of getting hot when it matters. Even if they haven't done it before. Oakland's in a similar boat themselves and the Angels are nearly double the price.

MLB Win Totals Odds

Houston Astros 87.5
Oakland Athletics 86.5
Los Angeles Angels 83.5
Seattle Mariners 72.5
Texas Rangers 66.5

The last AL West champ that finished a non-shortened season with fewer than 88 wins were the 1987 Minnesota Twins if you can believe it or not. Seattle did it with 79 wins in the 144-game 1995 season, and obviously there was last year, but you get the division champ correct here and the 'over' is correlated.

And speaking of Seattle, they had better hope that their prospects are as ready as to be believed, because this is where the six game gap between the Mariners and Rangers doesn't feel all that warranted. A 69-win campaign makes plenty of sense for both of them, but I do believe you've got to trust the 'under' on Seattle more than the 'over' with Texas in that scenario.

MLB Win Playoff Prop Odds

Oakland Athletics: Yes -130; No +105
Houston Astros: Yes -124; No +100
Los Angeles Angels: Yes +160; No -200
Seattle Mariners: Yes +1000; No -5000
Texas Rangers: Yes; No

Having Oakland with the best price makes sense with how it's gone in the previous markets, with the Astros World Series experience factored into those WS odds. Getting two teams to the postseason is no guarantee here though, and again, the perspective one takes on the Angels this year will bring plenty of potential scenarios to map out.

MLB Most Valuable Player Odds

Mike Trout (L.A. Angels) +200
Alex Bregman (Houston Astros) +1000
Matt Chapman (Oakland Athletics) +1500
Anthony Rendon (L.A. Angels) +1500
Shohei Ohtani (L.A. Angels) +3300
Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros) +3300
Jose Altuve (Houston Astros) +4000
Carlos Correra (Houston Astros) +4000
Matt Olson (Oakland Athletics) +4000
Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros) +4000

With how well the top half of this entire division is represented in these MVP odds, at least two of them making the postseason feels like it's priced like a certainty. Hard to beat the guy who's been at the top for a long time now in Mike Trout, but there hasn't been much team success behind those seasons. Trout would gladly take the team success this year at the cost of another MVP award, and the price is a little absurd. Trout and Bregman are #1 and #2 in the entire AL market at those odds.

But I also don't know how you can confidently argue the path for any of these other choices to get past Trout AND the rest of the big names scattered throughout the American League.

Oakland's success tends to come from a balanced approach, and any of the Angels options are hard to believe possible without Trout missing time. It's a grab bag of Astros as the other options and those choices are usually best left to personal preference.

MLB Cy Young Odds

Marco Gonzales (Seattle Mariners) +2500
Jesus Luzardo (Oakland Athletics) +2500
Framber Valdez (Houston Astros) +2500
Zack Greinke (Houston Astros) +3300
Andrew Heaney (L.A. Angels) +3300

With how many names there were at the top of the odds in the MVP section, and how there are 10 names ahead of the +2500 prices Gonzales and Luzardo have for the Cy Young, maybe the thought of expecting some 'overs' to connect early in the season in AL West division games has some validity.

It's going to take one hell of a season for Gonzales to win this award should the Mariners play out their projections, and when he's one of the best priced starters in this division, it's probably best to look at the names elsewhere in the AL.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NL East Betting Odds
Matt blunt

2021 NL East Division Odds

Atlanta Braves +120
New York Mets +140
Washington Nationals +600
Philadelphia Phillies +875
Miami Marlins +2500

Hard not to be the preseason winners of this division if you are the New York Mets with the moves they made during the offseason, adding Francisco Lindor to the middle of an infield that's got one of the best starting rotations in baseball pitching in front of them.

No matter how New York constructs their rotation throughout the year, they are going to be sending a stud or former stud to the mound nearly every night. That alone is going to win a lot of games for this team.

The Mets aren't the only team in this division with a strong pitching staff from front to back, as Washington's built in a similar mold. The former World Champs still have a trio of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin at the top, and they've added a name like Jon Lester (among others) to that staff.

The Nationals also have the player with the best NL MVP odds within this division in Juan Soto, and the entire Nationals lineup is built to churn like a machine when everyone is contributing. Adding a power bat like former Cub Kyle Schwarber won't hurt Washington's chances either.

Former Nationals slugger Bryce Harper is still out in Philadelphia, playing for a Phillies team that's built to win games one way: with their offense. The nightly lineup the Phillies can throw out there each night will be downright scary for some opponents, but how successful that method of team building works in a division with multiple teams loaded with multiple pitchers remains to be seen.

Based on the Phillies price, there isn't a whole lot of optimism that this team can be the best of the bunch in the NL East, and it's because their pitching is a huge question mark. Does make Philly a good candidate to be an 'over' team for game totals early in the year if the bats start out the season hot, but they deserve to be ranked 4th in this division because of that pitching, even if the price does feel a little too high.

The Braves also deserve to be the favorites to repeat as division champs, even if the price margin is slim between themselves and the Mets. Atlanta won this division in the “sprint” last year by four games, over the Marlins mind you. The three likely contenders to Atlanta's crown this year were all at least seven full games worse than the Braves a year ago too.

A full 162-game race track for these teams to run out in deciding the standings can help those chasing the Braves, but the Braves are built to do everything well, and if they execute on that level again this year and get a MVP-caliber performance reigning winner Freddie Freeman (or Acuna, Albies etc), it's going to be tough to see the Braves getting dethroned here.

Can't fault anyone for liking any one of those four teams at the top to take this division title down. There are all highly positive cases for each of those organizations where a 95+ win campaign is how 2021 plays out for them, and the prices are definitely there for Nationals and Phillies backers.

Not so sure that's the case with the Mets price, but that team should do big things in 2021. How big remains to be seen.

2021 National League Pennant Odds

Atlanta Braves +500
New York Mets +525
Washington Nationals +2000
Philadelphia Phillies +2000
Miami Marlins +3300

Since there are arguments to be had for four different teams in this division to be division champs, you can't deny that the team that does outlast the bunch will have done so having been tested plenty.

That can only be looked at as a good thing in terms of futures numbers down the road for the NL East winner, as they'll be comfortable and confident against anyone, like say, a favored L.A. Dodgers or San Diego Padres team in the NLCS.

Saying that is all well and good in theory, but it still puts us back to the original question of where a bettor would be willing to go in the NL East Division markets. Doubling up or splitting a unit on the same team to win the division and pennant is always an option as well, as the latter market does keep alive a playoff run from a Wild Card seed as well.

At least one of the Wild Card berths in the NL could easily come from this division, so even going with the approach of mitigating any division risk with a bigger stake on a pennant future can be the route to go too.

Finally, for bettors that are the big time believers in everything the Mets have done and what they expect to get in returns from those moves this year, skipping over the division markets and getting about 5-1 on them to make the World Series could be the way to go.

New York's pitching staff should be able to hold their own against the likes of the Dodgers/Padres etc, and the protection against a Mets sluggish start (as they adapt to the changes) costing them the division is worth the price/risk trade off in my opinion.

Following a disappointing 2020 season with high expectations, the Phillies look to rebound and make it to the top of the NL East. (AP)

2021 World Series Odds

Atlanta Braves +1000
New York Mets +1000
Washington Nationals +3300
Philadelphia Phillies +4000
Miami Marlins +7500

Again, any Mets bettors should add a World Series ticket to any other futures they are holding on New York, and there's probably no way, or need to convince them otherwise.

On paper, New York's got all the pieces in place to go off and win a title if everything breaks right for them, and at that price they are still tied with the Braves for the 3rd best price for any NL team, meaning the likelihood of it happening isn't like that play is going way out on a limb or anything.

Same thing goes for the Braves in the identical situation for bettors that believe they still aren't getting their due for how good they really are.

The Nationals and Phillies are interesting cases for the World Series market in that for them to reach this position and those play(s) having a chance to cash, the season for that team had to have gone extremely well.

If that's the case, and that's the belief for a bettor, going heavier with the stake on the Nats/Phillies to win the division and/or pennant would probably be my preferred way to go there.

It is only one extra series, but the Phillies rotation as is would have a severe challenge against any AL World Series representative, and Washington can rely on their pitching too much that things look really bad when the pitching isn't there.

Having a bit more stake at 6/1 or 8.75/1 on those teams for the division or their 20/1 prices to just make the World Series is still going to be a nice payday.

MLB Win Totals Odds

Atlanta Braves 91.5
New York Mets 90.5
Washington Nationals 84.5
Philadelphia Phillies 80.5
Miami Marlins 71.5

Outside of 2020, two of the previous six seasons saw the NL East winner finish with exactly 90 wins, so as contrary as it may sound in relation to those previous team futures to win various banners, looking at the 'unders' on either the Braves or Mets is definitely an option for those looking to fade those teams in 2021.

If all four teams at the top are good, a Miami 'under' is worthy of consideration, but the Marlins held their own just fine last year. A longer season only hurts Miami's chances of sustaining that level of play, but they are a team that probably lands within two or three games on either side of that number.

All four top teams being good also means their might not be enough wins to go around for both the Braves and Mets to get up and over their numbers.

The way I would approach these win totals would be to go with the team between Washington and Philly I thought would be better than expected, and pair that 'over' with the 'under' on the team I thought wouldn't live up to expectations between Atlanta and New York.

Everything probably ends up so correlated in this division that a bunch of teams finishing in the high 80's of wins makes a lot of sense this year. Should give bettors one 'over' and one 'under' for those four teams with win totals of 80.5 or higher.

MLB Win Playoff Prop Odds

Atlanta Braves Yes -275; No +210
New York Mets Yes -250; No +195
Washington Nationals Yes +130; No -162
Philadelphia Phillies Yes +285; No -385
Miami Marlins Yes +1000; No -5000

Again, this market is something I'd treat completely different to the team futures markets from earlier, unless being extremely high on Washington or Philadelphia is Plan A for the bettor. Then it's pile on the Nats/Phillies for division, NL pennant, and anything else, as long as the 'yes' on making the playoffs is included as well.

Washington at +130 feels like a solid relationship between price and probability, as their pitching staff should be among one of the better ones in the league, and the balance they can achieve offensively can be extremely envious.

Treating this differently means that the 'no' options for the Braves and/or Mets are the plays on the negative side of the equation this year that probably makes the most sense. With how close this division should likely be, there is always going to be varying opinions, and wanting to sell high on Atlanta and/or New York isn't the worst option.

The same bettor isn't going to have one of them to win the Pennant/World Series and consider the 'no' on the playoff prop obviously, (they could), but expecting one of those plus-money options on Atlanta/New York/Washington/Philadelphia to connect is very reasonable. Plenty of options along that route that are up to the individual.

MLB Most Valuable Player Odds

Juan Soto (Washington) +750
Ronald Acuna, Jr. (Atlanta) +850
Freddie Freeman (Atlanta) +1200
Francisco Lindor (New York) +1200
Bryce Harper (Philadelphia) +1500
Ozzie Albies (Atlanta) +3000
J.T. Realmuto (Philadelphia) +3000
Pete Alonso (New York) +3300
Michael Conforto (New York) +4000

You'd have to go back to the 2010 winner (Joey Votto) and 2011 winner (Ryan Braun) to find the last time consecutive NL MVP's came from the same division. With Atlanta's Freddie Freeman winning this award last year, that history might hurt the chances of all these names.

You'd have to go back to the 2008-09 seasons to find the last time a NL MVP repeated as winner (Albert Pujols) in Freeman's case specifically, and the last time we had two different players from the same team win the NL MVP was 2006-07 when Philly's Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins grabbed the hardware. That kills off any interest I were to have in any of Atlanta's players on this list, and it's backed by where the Braves will show up in the selections later on.

Do think it's tough for Lindor to go to off to a different team and win a MVP award in his first year, but being the biggest change on a team that could have a huge change in results this year already has some built in MVP sentiment to Lindor's case.

You probably don't even have to be all that high on the Mets to back Lindor or any of New York's other names either. MVP's generally go to players on a team that won their division, so if you believe the Mets ceiling in 2021 is a NL East title, a MVP award for their best player is definitely not out of the question.

Soto is the complete player already in this league at his young age, and from a career arc perspective, it's easy to see a league MVP landing on his resume at some point. Being the guy a specific NL team relies upon for the “clutch” hit late in games has worked out well for past NL MVP's.

Albert Pujols won the award three times in five years at the peak of his powers in St. Louis, and his first award came after Barry Bonds had won four straight. Both were guys who sat in the middle of the order, took a walk when that's all that was offered, but cashed in when those opportunities were there as well.

You can say the same thing about the seasons recent MVP's had as well, as Cody Bellinger (2019), Christian Yelich (2018), Giancarlo Stanton (2017), Kris Bryant (2016), and Bryce Harper (2015) were all guys that were routinely pitched around in those seasons because of how often they put bat on ball for a hit.

Soto's got all those characteristics already in his game, and with the Nats expecting their starting pitching to keep things tight at worst, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for Washington bats to come up with those game-deciding hits in the late innings.

MLB Cy Young Odds

Jacob deGrom (New York) +425
Max Scherzer (Washington) +950
Aaron Nola (Philadelphia) +1200
Max Fried (Atlanta) +1700
Stephen Strasburg (Washington) +2000
Charlie Morton (Atlanta) +2200
Patrick Corbin (Washington) +2800
Mike Soroka (Atlanta) +3000
Sixto Sanchez (Miami) +3000
Zach Wheeler (Philadelphia) +3300
Carlos Carrasco (New York) +4000

When there are names coming back from injury like Marcus Stroman (+5000) and Noah Syndergaard (+5000) not even making this already extensive list, pitcher's duels might be the norm in the NL East this season. So many legitimate options for this award coming from this division that it's another one of those categories where personal preference is going to trump any kind of persuasive perspective presented.

The Braves pitching staff might actually be a bit underrated here if the other prices on Atlanta this year are correct or even undershooting things, and one of the two younger guys in Fried or Soroka may be the go-to selections there. That is for believers in Atlanta though. Anyone else is going to be looking elsewhere, and for me, that again lands me in Washington.

If the Mets are dominant, then deGrom will be a big part of it, but he also won't be asked (or needed) to do as much hopefully for the Mets and that probably hurts his individual award prospects.

He's already somewhat competing against himself having won in 2018 and 2019, and if his team is exponentially better than they were in those years (highly likely), the natural expectation is to need EVEN more from deGrom to give him the award again. Makes it tough to see him get the award again in many scenarios, and something I'm not interested in concerning myself with.