Thursday 4/1/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Valero Texas Open Outright Winner
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: April 1, 2021 10AM EDT
Play: Zach Johnson to Win Valero Texas Open (+6000)
Valero Texas Open
A couple players I like this week include Aaron Wise and Zach Johnson.
Zach Johnson quietly has the longest cuts made streak on Tour, making now 14 straight cuts including all 12 this season. While the 45 year old has certainly lost some distance off the tee ranking 159th on Tour, he makes up for it in other areas. Johnson ranks 23rd on Tour this season in scoring average thanks to 30th in Greens in Regulation. And of course his putting has been fantastic ranking #11 on Tour in Strokes Gained Putting.
It’s also worth noting he has two Top 10 finishes here in six starts including finishing T5 in his last start here in 2018.
He is currently available at 60-1 to win or +550 for a Top 10. For DFS players he is available for $8,500 at DraftKings.
Aaron Wise has had an opposite skill set of Zach Johnson. He is a terrible putter ranking 200th in Strokes Gained Putting this season, but Tee to Green ranks 30th thanks to being ranked #12 in Greens in Regulation. He has five missed cuts in seven starts this year but does his best damage in weak field events. A couple examples are
T17 at Sanderson Farms
T26 at Bermuda Championship
T11 at Houston Open
2nd at Mayakoba and
T13 in his last start at the Honda Classic
He took off last week so he is rested coming in and his price is good this week at 75-1 to win, +750 for a Top 10 and for DFS players he is available for $8,000 at DraftKings.
TAKE ZACH JOHNSON OUTRIGHT +6000 & TOP 10 +550
TAKE AARON WISE OUTRIGHT +7500 & TOP 10 +750

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: Hideki Matsuyama vs Jordan Spieth
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: April 1, 2021 10AM EDT
Play: Jordan Spieth (-115)
Valero Texas Open
Tournament Matchup Offshore
It’s been a while since I backed Jordan Spieth in a H2H Matchup play but he has finally started to play well and been consistent for several tournaments and I finally feel comfortable playing on him again.
Since the beginning of February Spieth has four Top 10 finishes in six starts including three Top 5’s. He has notoriously been a fast starter and this run has been no different with first round scores of 65, 67, 68 and nothing worse than 70. He has gained 1.84 strokes per round over the field during his run which is very strong.
His driver has still been a problem but he is playing lights out with his irons and if he can just keep it in play off the tee he should have plenty of opportunities this week.
Spieth’s Career at the Valero Texas Open has seen him make the cut in four out of five appearances with two Top-10’s including a Runner up in 2015.
Matsuyama on the other hand has never played in this event so obviously there is an advantage in course knowledge right away to Spieth.
Besides that, Matsuyama has missed two cuts in his last five starts, although he does have two Top-20’s mixed in there as well. His ball striking has always been elite, Top-10 on Tour but this year he is less elite ranked #62 in SG Off the Tee and #31 in SG Approach. And of course the one part of his game that has never been good is his putting, which is no different this year, currently ranked #170 on Tour.
He has five career wins which all game when he was one of the best ball strikers in the world and even below average putting could still win. But now with less than elite ball striking numbers, He is not putting together four rounds in tournaments, while Spieth has finally come alive.
TAKE JORDAN SPIETH OVER HIDEKI MATSUYAMA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Apr 01 '21, 1:20 PM in 4h
PGA | Rafael Cabrera Bello vs Harold Varner III
Play on: Harold Varner III -150 at Mirage

1* Free Sharp Play on Harold Varner III -150

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Sean Murphy

Apr 01 '21, 1:10 PM in 4h
MLB | CLE vs DET
Play on: UNDER 7½ -114

Thursday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Thursday.
With the temperature expected to be hovering in the 30's and the Indians handing the ball to one of the game's most dominant pitchers in Shane Bieber, I'm anticipating a low-scoring affair on Thursday afternoon in Detroit. Note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 19-5 when Bieber takes the hill with the total set between 7 and 8.5 runs over the last three seasons with those contests averaging just 6.4 total runs. Factoring in only road games in that situation that average total drops to 5.7 runs. Tigers starter Matt Boyd is coming off a bad season but was given the nod on Opening Day due to his work ethic and willingness to work on improving during the offseason. While Boyd owns a 3-9 team record in 12 career starts against the Indians, the 'under' has actually gone 7-4-1. Both teams ranked in the bottom-third of the majors in most key offensive categories last season and don't figure to improve a great deal in that regard here in 2021. Take the under (8*).

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Trace Adams

Opening Day for Atlanta and Philadelphia and we have Max Fried and Aaron Nola toeing the rubber for this 2021 season-starter.

Even though the weather is going to be on the chillier side and there could be some rain in the forecast, going to look for the hitters to do just enough damage to take this game Over the posted total - which I feel is a little too low based on past performances by Fried and Nola versus the others team.

Fried has worked against Philly 11 times (5 starts) and is 3-2 with a 4.15 ERA.

Nola has a nice 11-6 career mark against Atlanta in 20 starts, but his 3.05 ERA suggests he will give up a few.

You cannot expect either starter to work very deep on the very first day of the new season, so expect the bullpens to come into play and expect this total to topple.

6 of the last 8 meetings between the teams last season did play Over, including an 11-2 final in favor of the Braves that BOTH listed pitchers started. In fact each of Nola's last 2 starts and Fried's last 2 starts in that span I just mentioned landed Over the total. This one does too.

Braves-Phillies Over.

2* ATLANTA-PHILADELHIA OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks	Place A Bet
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NBA – Magic over 219	Line @ Bovada
2.	Gameday Network	NBA – Cavaliers over 211	Line @ Bovada
3.	VegasSI.com	NBA – Clippers +1.5	Line @ Bovada
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Phillies -120	Line @ GT Bets
5.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Dodgers -1.5	Line @ GT Bets
6.	Point Spread Report	MLB – Yankees -175	Line @ MyBookie
7.	Lou Panelli	NBA – Pistons +3	Line @ Bovada
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	NBA – Hornets +3	Line @ Bovada
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	NBA – Cavaliers over 211	Line @ GT Bets
10.	William E. Stockton	MLB – Indians -185	Line @ MyBookie
11.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Rays -145	Line @ Bovada
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Athletics over 8	Line @ Bovada
13.	SCORE	MLB – Royals -150	Line @ GT Bets
14.	East Coast Line Movers	NBA – Hornets +3	Line @ MyBookie
15.	Tony Campone	NBA – Clippers +1.5	Line @ Bovada
16.	Chicago Sports Group	NBA – Warriors over 219	Line @ Bovada
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Yankees -175	Line @ Bovada
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Cardinals under 7	Line @ GT Bets
19.	South Beach Sports	MLB – Padres -1.5	Line @ Bovada
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	MLB – Cubs -1.5	Line @ Bovada
21.	NY Players Club	NBA – Nets -3	Line @ GT Bets
22.	Fred Callahan	NBA – Cavaliers over 211	Line @ Bovada
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	NBA – Warriors over 219	Line @ MyBookie
24.	Michigan Sports	MLB – Yankees -175	Line @ GT Bets
25.	National Consensus Report	MLB – Dodgers -1.5	Line @ Bovada

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow

Apr 01 '21, 4:10 PM in 1h
MLB | TAM vs MIA
Play on: UNDER 7½ -105

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Rays/Marlins under 7½ -105

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Totals Guru

Apr 01 '21, 4:10 PM in 1h
MLB | TEX vs KC
Play on: UNDER 9 -105

Free Total Annihilator On Rangers vs Royals under 9 -105

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Dustin Hawkins

Apr 01 '21, 4:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Rays vs Marlins
Play on: Rays -141 at Draft Kings

1 Dimer on Rays -141

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Sal Michaels

Apr 01 '21, 4:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Padres
Play on: Diamondbacks +215 at Draft Kings

Free Play on Diamondbacks +215

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Jesse Schule

Apr 01 '21, 4:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Cardinals vs Reds
Play on: Cardinals +105 at linepros

This is a free play on St. Louis.
The Cardinals open the season on the road at Cincinnati, and they will be the underdog. The Reds find themselves favored, despite finishing with the worst record in the Cactus League.
Luis Castillo will get the nod for Cincinnati, and he was pretty average in the spring. He hasn't really been great against the Cardinals, who are batting a combined .292 over 139 combined at bats.
St. Louis will hand the ball to Jack Flaherty who is 2-0 with a 0.55 ERA in his last three starts versus Cincinnati.
The Cardinals are 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in Cincinnati.
GL,
Jesse Schule

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Apr 01 '21, 4:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Dodgers vs Rockies
Play on: Dodgers -205 at linepros

1* Free Pick on Dodgers -205

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Cole Faxon

Apr 01 '21, 4:10 PM in 1h
MLB | TEX vs KC
Play on: UNDER 8½ -103

FREE PLAY on Rangers/Royals under 8½ -103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Apr 01 '21, 4:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Dodgers vs Rockies
Play on: Rockies +190 at Draft Kings

Dodgers veteran starter Clayton Kershaw after injuries prevented him from pitching on Opening Day in each of the last two seasons now gets this assignment in 2021, Kershaw will make his ninth Opening Day start. Kershaw struggled this spring, posting a 10.22 ERA in four starts and looks like fade material in his current form. Meanwhile, Rockies starter German Marquez the last time he faced the Dodgers, Márquez went seven innings and struck out five while giving up two runs and five hits in a Rockies win in early Sept at Dodger Stadium. He has a 2.54 ERA in nine games vs. the Dodgers and gets my support here today in the big underdog role.
Play on Colorado to win on the ML