Saturday 4/3/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Nick Borrman

Event: Eintracht Frankfurt at Dortmund
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 3, 2021 9AM EDT
Play: Both Teams to Score + OVER 2.5 Goals (-130)
Germany Bundesliga
A lot is on the line here in this meeting. Frankfurt currently holds the 4th and final Champions League spot with 47 points while Dortmund is right behind them in 5th place with 43 points. Dortmund has a big Champions League matchup coming up this week against Manchester City but they can’t lose sight of the fact that they need to win this game.
The total is set high at 3.25 and I do think there will be goals in this game as both teams push for the win. So if the Over 3.25 goals is going to hit, both teams are likely to score to see the total hit at least four goals so playing the Both Teams to Score + OVER 2.5 Goals prop is how I’m looking at this game.
First, Dortmund has a 19-7 O-U 2.5 Goals record while Frankfurt has a 16-10 O-U record. On top of that, Dortmund has a 16-10 Both Teams to Score record and Frankfurt has the highest mark of any team in the Bundesliga with 22 of their 26 matches seeing Both Teams Score.
In seven of the last ten H2H meetings between these teams, this prop has hit and with so much on the line here, it’s hard to see anything but a similar game here.
For an additional play, I think this game is likely to play out to a 2-1 score line either way. So I’m also playing two correct scores at 0.5% each. Dortmund 2-1 is +825 and Frankfurt 2-1 is +1400.
TAKE BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE + OVER 2.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 4% to -150

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (200013) Liverpool at (200014) Arsenal
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 3, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Total Under 3.0 (-149)
We like the Under 3 goals in Saturday's EPL matchup between Liverpool and Arsenal.
Liverpool have continued to struggle of late in the Premier League as they try to make one final push for a top four Champions League spot for next season. Just two wins from their last eight however leaves them well off the pace and they may struggle to break Arsenal down here on Saturday.
Liverpool have averaged just 0.63 goals per game since February 1st in league action and have the EPL's 13th lowest xg data across that span also.
Arsenal meanwhile have been dominant on defense over that stretch, especially at home, where they're allowing just 1.19 xga per game.
All five of Liverpool's most recent games have seen Under 2.5 get to the window and we like another low scoring affair to take place here on Saturday.
Take Liverpool and Arsenal Under the total in the EPL for this weekend.
PLAY: UNDER 3

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Gianni the Greek

Event: (309041) Colgate at (309042) Fordham
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: April 3, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Fordham +3.0 (-105)

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Oskeim Sports

Event: (801) Houston at (802) Baylor
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: April 3, 2021 5PM EDT
Play: Total Under 134.0 (-110)
Baylor likes to push the tempo with its four-guard lineup but still finished the 2020-21 regular season with an adjusted tempo rank of 186th. The Cougars prefer a slow pace of play (328th in offensive tempo) and rank in the top 10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Houston also ranks first in effective field goal percentage allowed, fourth in 2-point field goal defense (42.6), and allows only 53% on shot attempts at the rim, per Hoop-Math.
Houston's elite length and athleticism guard the perimeter as well as any other team in college basketball. Baylor is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation (41.1%, first in the NCAA) but the Cougars own the nation's 11th-best three-point field goal defense (29.2).
The Bears have clearly regained the edge they played with during the first three months of the season before being shut down for three weeks in February due to COVID-19-related issues. Baylor forced Arkansas into 15 turnovers in the Elite 8 and held Villanova to 37.5% shooting in the second half (0-for-9 from three) in its Sweet 16 victory. The Bears should cause similar disruption to a Houston attack that is shooting just 43.7% from the field and 35.4% from beyond the arc.
From a technical standpoint, the UNDER falls into a very strong 42-20 totals system of mine that involves games with totals between 130 and 139.5 and teams that have committed eleven or fewer turnovers in back-to-back games. The UNDER is 23-9 in Houston's last 32 games as an underdog (4-0 L/4 at a neutral site), 19-7 in its last 26 games versus .601 or greater opposition, and 13-3 ATS in its previous sixteen games following an against-the-spread loss.
Take the UNDER as Oskeim Sports' Free Pick Winner for Saturday, April 3.

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (565) Cleveland Cavaliers at (566) Miami Heat
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: April 3, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Total Over 204.5 (-110)
Some value on the Over between Cleveland and Miami tonight.
While Miami's defense has improved in recent games, Cleveland's has actually underperformed, dropping from a season average 22nd in defensive efficiency to now 24th.
And while on the subject of Miami's defense, while they rank #1 over their three most recent games, and #6 overall on the season, at home they've been really sub-par this year, ranking 20th overall.
Both of these teams have been miserable from behind the arc this season, ranking 2nd and 3rd last respectively, but Cleveland's recent form has seen them drop off even more, a full 6.1% off their season average.
With Miami's questionable defense metrics at home this season, plus the fact Miami rank 23rd on defense from opponent three point range, including giving up 40.5% to Golden State last time out, we expect the Cavaliers to find more success perimeter shooting here tonight and with Miami responding, push this one Over the total on Saturday.
Take Cleveland/Miami Over the total later tonight.
PLAY: OVER 204.5

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Bobby Conn

Apr 03 '21, 11:00 AM in 2h
Soccer | Lille OSC vs Paris Saint-Germain
Play on: Paris Saint-Germain -150 at linepros

1* Free Play on Paris Saint-Germain -150

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Red Dog Sports

Apr 03 '21, 12:30 PM in 4h
Soccer | Manchester City vs Leicester
Play on: Leicester +505 at pinnacle

Leicester +505
Manchester City is a fantastic team but will be playing on the road vs. the #3 team in the England Premier League. Manchester United beat them 2-0 recently so they are not unbeatable. Plenty of value on the home team at +505.

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Ricky Tran

Apr 03 '21, 12:30 PM in 4h
Soccer | Manchester City vs Leicester
Play on: OVER 2½ -115

Ricky's 1* free play on Over.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Citizens lead the Premier League in scoring with 64 goals.
- Leicester City ranks 3rd in the Premier League in scoring with 53 goals.
- The last meeting ended with a 5-2 victory for Leiscester City.
Verdict: This should be a high scoring affair.

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Steve Janus

Apr 03 '21, 1:08 PM in 5h
NHL | Penguins vs Bruins
Play on: UNDER 5½ -118

1* Free Sharp Play on Penguins vs Bruins under 5½ -118

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Info Plays

Apr 03 '21, 3:30 PM in 7h
Soccer | Deportivo Cuenca vs Delfin
Play on: Delfin -133 at linepros

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Delfin -133

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AI Picks: April 3 Triple Crown Preps

April 1, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

This Saturday’s Triple Crown prep races toward the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes will be a cross-country triple of the Grade 1 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, the Grade 2 Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. To help you handicap the premier stakes 4 weeks in advance of the Kentucky Derby, the 1/ST BET app’s artificial intelligence provides its look at the data for all 3 races.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Bet the Santa Anita Derby with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET and take advantage of our $20 money-back guarantee if your win bet finishes second or third.

Aqueduct Racetrack // Grade 2 Wood Memorial // Race 10 // 5:58 PM ET

#1 Brooklyn Strong // 30%W // 50%P // 61%S
#4 Risk Taking // 19%W // 37%P // 52%S
#2 Crowded Trade // 15%W // 26%P // 43%S
#8 Weyburn // 12%W // 29%P // 44%S
#7 Candy Man Rocket // 8%W // 15%P // 31%S
#5 Dynamic One // 5%W // 13%P // 18%S
#3 Bourbonic // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S
#6 Prevalence // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S
#9 Market Maven // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S

Keeneland // Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes // Race 11 // 6:35 PM ET

#4 Essential Quality // 30%W // 50%P // 62%S
#9 Keepmeinmind // 19%W // 37%P // 52%S
#3 Highly Motivated // 15%W // 26%P // 43%S
#5 Rombauer // 12%W // 29%P // 44%S
#6 Leblon // 8%W // 15%P // 31%S
#1 Hidden Stash // 5%W // 13%P // 18%S
#2 Untreated // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S
#7 Hush of a Storm // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S
#8 Sittin On Go // 4%W // 10%P // 17%S


Santa Anita Park // Grade 1 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby // Race 8 // 7:15 PM ET

#7 Medina Spirit // 32%W // 47%P // 58%S
#2 Dream Shake // 16%W // 37%P // 49%S
#9 The Great One // 14%W // 25%P // 35%S
#8 Law Professor // 10%W // 21%P // 27%S
#10 Defunded // 10%W // 15%P // 35%S
#3 Rock Your World // 6%W // 15%P // 31%S
#1 Roman Centurian // 4%W // 13%P // 29%S
#6 Ottothelegend // 4%W // 11%P // 17%S
#4 Parnelli // 4%W // 7%P // 10%S
#5 Back Ring Luck // 4%W // 7%P // 10%S

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Our Experts Rank Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders

April 1, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

It’s Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass and Wood Memorial Week, the 4-week outpost until the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Between now and next week’s Arkansas Derby, the field for the first Saturday in May will take much of its shape.

Our resident historians and handicappers check back in with their mid-March Top 10 contenders for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. We’ve included the projected next start for each horse in parentheses (subject to change).

Jeff Siegel

#1 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#2 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#6 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)
#7 Greatest Honour (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Prevalence (Wood Memorial)
#9 Rock Your World (Santa Anita Derby)
#10 Helium (Kentucky Derby)

Jon White

#1 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#2 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#6 Greatest Honour (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Keepmeinmind (Blue Grass)
#9 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)
#10 Dream Shake (Santa Anita Derby)


John DeSantis

#1 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#2 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#3 Greatest Honour (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#7 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Highly Motivated (Blue Grass)
#9 O Besos (Kentucky Derby)
#10 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)

Jeremy Plonk

#1 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#2 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#3 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Greatest Honour (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Santa Anita Derby)
#6 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Proxy (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#9 Prevalence (Wood Memorial)
#10 Risk Taking (Wood Memorial)

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Jeff Siegel's 2021 Triple Crown Power Rankings
March 30, 2021
Our Triple Crown Tracker power rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. The horses listed are assumed to be candidates for at least one of the Triple Crown races.

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1 - ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 4-4-0-0 ($1,335,144). Derby points: 40
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5F Southwest S.-G3, finished first.
Next start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2
Latest workout: March 27, Fair Grounds, 5f, 1:00.2b

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior), racing wide throughout but accelerating impressively in the final furlong; had secured a 2020 Eclipse Award in the 2-year-old colt division to complete an unbeaten juvenile campaign in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 at Keeneland in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie; previously won his 6F debut at Churchill Downs by four lengths in September (rallying from seven and one-half lengths back) and then registering a three and one-quarter length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 at Keeneland after pressing slow fractions; speed figures are strong and have risen with each of his four career victories; proven so far to be genuine and versatile while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands and with every expectation that he’ll continue to develop during the spring of his 3-year-old season.
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2 - CONCERT TOUR (B. Baffert) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($756,600). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5FF Rebel S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: April 10, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 9F Arkansas Derby.-G1
Latest workout: March 27, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h

The skinny: Gary and Mary West Stables homebred; second foal; dam 6F maiden special weight winner at Churchill Downs in 12th (and final) career start; no black type in first two generations; third dam is the granddam of Stardom Bound (champion, BC Juvenile Fillies-G1); unbeaten in three career starts, most recently a dominating gate-to-wire victory in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park (by four and one-quarter lengths from stable mate Hozier), quickly establishing the pace from his outside draw and then, after disposing of favored Caddo River, drawing clear under mild urging to win with plenty left; earned solid but not great 94 Beyer speed figure; previously successful with a pace-pressing trip as the 2/5 favorite in five-runner 7F San Vicente S.-G2 (by one-half length from stable mate Freedom Fighter) after winning his debut three weeks earlier in 6F maiden score in a highly impressive performance at Santa Anita (forced pace, then kicked clear with power and with plenty left); pedigree suggests a classic distance could be within his capabilities; has so far followed the identical pattern/schedule as B. Baffert’s top class colt from last year, Nadal; likely to use the Arkansas Derby-G1 (April 10) as his final springboard to the Kentucky Derby-G1 three weeks later and seems certain to be a heavy favorite; based purely on speed figures still has some doubters but seems likely to enter the spring classics with undefeated record.
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3 – KNOWN AGENDA (T. Pletcher) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Curlin – Byrama, by Byron
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-1 ($541,700). Derby points: 102
Last start: March 28, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: St. Elias Stable homebred, dam Gr-1 9F dirt winner in California; verified the highly favorable impression he made in an 11-length 9F allowance victory at Gulfstream Park in February by returning the following month to capture the Florida Derby-G1 over that same track and distance with complete authority (by two and three-quarter lengths from Soup and Sandwich); earned a career top speed figure in that race and appears to be developing with maturity, experience and distance as is typical of offspring of Curlin; was thought of early in his career and a long-winded, plodding type but has displayed improved tactical speed and late acceleration in recent starts; seems certain to enjoy the 10 furlong trip of the Kentucky Derby-G1 and is likely to step forward again and be a major player in the spring classics.
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4 - HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 122 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 7-2-1-02 ($1,00,700). Derby points: 110
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; versatile colt has been successful on the lead or from off the pace and returned to winning form in his second 2021 outing when making all in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, relaxing without undue pressure to the top of the lane and then fighting off all challenges to register two length score (from Midnight Bourbon) while establishing NTW (1:55.06) and earning a career top 99 Beyer speed figure; had displayed plenty of promise during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home while likely needing the outing; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; will be trained up to the Kentucky Derby with six weeks in between starts.
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5 - MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 4-2-2-0 ($165,200). Derby points: 48
Last start: March 6, 2021, Santa Anita, San Felipe S.-G3, finished second
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: March 22, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h

The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from first crop of multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); genuine and consistent though no match for stable mate (and top-ranked) Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout; reportedly exited the race with an entrapped epiglottis which has since been rectified; previously had displayed extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; before that finished second (beaten three-quarters of a length while 13 clear of the rest) to Life Is Good in 8F Sham S.-G3 in January; speed figures are legitimate; pedigree suggests he’ll do better as the distances increase; clearly a much better prospect that originally judged and could easily return to winning form in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 now that Life Is Good will not start and has been removed from Triple Crown consideration.
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6 – RISK TAKING (C. Brown) – 121 Lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor
Lifetime record: 4-2-0-0 ($182,530). Derby points: 10
Last start: Feb. 6, 2021, Aqueduct, Withers S.-G3, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Aqueduct, 9F Wood Memorial-G2
Latest workout: March 27, Belmont Park, 4f, :49.4b TT

The skinny: $240,000Y, dam multiple stakes placed on grass; best runners from his female family also preferred turf; unplaced in first two career starts during the fall of his juvenile campaign but has vastly improved since, breaking his maiden over 9F at Aqueduct on dirt in December and then stepping forward again over that same track and distance when winning the Withers S.-G3 in early February (by three and three-quarter lengths from Overtook after producing an extended, grinding late bid); speed figures are headed in the right direction but with some work still to be done; room for further improvement and clearly will be suited by 10F and farther; seems likely to produce another forward move in the 9F Wood Memorial-G2 in early April in a race that he’ll very likely be favored.
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7 - GREATEST HONOUR (C. McGaughey III) – 121 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Tiffany’s Honour, by Street Cry
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-2 ($351,940). Derby Points: 80
Last start: March 26, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 8.5F Florida Derby-G1, finished third
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: Was entered but withdrawn from 2019 Keeneland fall sale, second foal, dam unplaced half-sister to four SW’s including Rags to Riches and Jazil (both winners of Belmont S.-G1) and to BC Marathon S.-G1 winner Man of Iron; second dam Broodmare of the Year Better than Honour; impressive come-from-behind winner of the 8.5F Holy Bull S.-G3 (by five and three-quarter lengths from Tarantino) in January and then the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 (by one and one-half lengths from Drain the Clock) the following month but finished a non-threatening third (beaten nearly six lengths) in the 9F Florida Derby-G1 in his most recent outing at odds of 4/5 when racing in some traffic to the head of the lane but lacking a solid closing kick; has never been fast on speed figures (has yet to earn a Beyer speed figure in the 90’s) and may have been a tad overrated all along; notoriously lazy in morning workouts; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 with serious issues to answer.
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8 - PREVALENCE (B. Walsh) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Medaglia d’Oro – Enrichment, by Ghostzapper
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($52,800). Derby points: 0
Last start: March 11, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 8F allowance, finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Aqueduct, 9F Wood Memorial-G2
Latest workout: March 28, Palm Meadows, 4f, :47.3b

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; half-brother to New York-bred stakes winner Libreta (by Giralomo); dam winless in eight starts but is a full-sister to top class middle distance turf G1 winner Better Lucky; was forced to miss his intended second career start in the Fountain of Youth S.-G2 Feb. 27 after spiking a fever but reappeared March 11 in an 8F six-runner first-level allowance race at Gulfstream Park and was successful at 10 cents on the dollar (by three lengths from Southern Passage) with a perfect, stalking trip while earning a moderate speed figure in a performance that can best be described as workmanlike; was previously far more impressive winning his debut by eight and one-half lengths in 7F maiden in January when pressing the pace in hand and then kicking clear without ever being asked;; bred to stay at least a middle distance and potentially farther; with no Derby points will need to step forward considerably in what will have to be his final Kentucky Derby-G1 prep in the Wood Memorial-G2; remains an exciting prospect but finds himself behind the 8-ball with still plenty to prove.
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9 - ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 2-2-0-0 ($96,600). Derby points: 0
Last start: Feb. 27, 2021, Santa Anita, Pasadena S., finished first
Next start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1
Latest workout: March 28, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h

The skinny: $650,000Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in two starts, both on grass, most recently when drawing clear with a good display of late speed to win the listed 8F Pasadena S. in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) before being hard to pull up and galloping out full of run; previously had debuted over 6F on grass and registered a one and three-quarter length victory with a good number despite being eased up in the final stages while appearing to toy with his opposition; pedigree suggests he’ll handle any surface and be able to cope with a classic distance though he appears to be a better mover on turf than on the main track according to his workouts; will get his opportunity on dirt in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April; at which time his Triple Crown prospects will become apparent; remains an exciting prospect, at the very least on grass.
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10 – HELLIUM (M. Casse) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Ironicus – Thundering Emilla, by Thunder Gulch
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($287,763). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 6, 2021, Tampa Bay Downs, Tampa Bay Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: March 27, Palm Meadows, 4f, :49.1b

The skinny: $55,000Y; fourth foal, half-brother to Peruvian Gr. 1 winner Emilia’s Moon (by Malibu Moon); dam G3 SW in Peru; undefeated in three starts including the 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his 3-year-old debut (by three-quarters of a length from Hidden Stash), producing a steady bid (was 10th early) to secure the win in good style from a moderate field; previously had won both of his starts as a 2-year-old over the Woodbine synthetic surface (both at seven furlongs), a maiden in September (by three and one-quarter lengths from Excellorator) and the listed Display S. the following month (by four and one-quarter lengths from Gospel Way); versatile colt has won pressing the pace and from far off the pace; bred to handle any surface and apparently does; should stay a classic distance; speed figures aren’t yet close to being competitive with the tops in his division and reportedly will now have two months in between races and train up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; obviously is a colt of some quality but the strategy from his connections appears to place a higher emphasis on making the Derby field that actually providing him the proper preparation to have a chance to win it.

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Also eligible: Soup and Sandwich (M. Casse); Dream Shake (P. Eurton); Midnight Bourbon (S. Asmussen); Highly Motivated (C. Brown); Weyburn (J. Jerkins); Rombauer (M. McCarthy);); Crowded Trade (C. Brown); Keepmeinmind (R. Diodoro); O Besos (G. Foley); Like the King (W. Ward).
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Santa Anita Derby Post Draw Rapid Reaction
March 31, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s Grade 1 $750,000 Santa Anita Derby attracted a field of 10 as entries were drawn today for the west coast’s premier Triple Crown prep. Medina Spirit, winner of the Bob Lewis Memorial Stakes and runner-up in the San Felipe, drew post 7. He’ll carry the baton for the Bob Baffert stable in the absence of unbeaten San Felipe winner Life is Good, who recently underwent ankle surgery and will miss the spring classics.

Medina Spirit went wire-to-wire in the Lewis, but conceded the lead to the faster Life is Good last time out. He could be back on the engine Saturday in a race that lacks serious early pace. Baffert’s quest for a record-padding 10th Santa Anita Derby victory, which also includes last-out maiden winner Defunded (post 10), does come with challenges both new and old.

Dream Shake (post 2), Roman Centurian (post 1) and The Great One (post 9) all were behind Medina Spirit in the San Felipe. The trio took different trajectories most recently, Dream Shake an impressive third while attending the pace and Roman Centurian and The Great One a bit more disappointing in a flat fourth and tiring fifth, respectively. Expect Dream Shake and The Great One to show more speed in the Derby than they did in the San Felipe, when connections had to be more cautious about attacking that race’s heavy favorite Life is Good. Medina Spirit won’t instill as much pace fear. The inside-outside draws for Dream Shake and The Great One also will force their rider’s hands to use more early speed.

As for the new faces to the Santa Anita Derby trail, undefeated Rock Your World (post 3) has impressed in two starts on turf and will try the dirt for the first time under the tutelage of John Sadler, who won his only Santa Anita Derby in 2010 with Sidney’s Candy. He has tactical early speed and should not be far off the pace if he handles the dirt. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen sends late-running Oaklawn maiden winner Ottothelegend (post 6) west for a class test as the field’s lone ship-in competitor.

2021 Santa Anita Derby Field

1-Roman Centurian (Juan Hernandez)
2-Dream Shake (Flavien Prat)
3-Rock Your World (Umberto Rispoli)
4-Parnelli (Edwin Maldonado)
5-Back Ring Luck (Tyler Baze)
6-Ottothelegend (Mario Gutierrez)
7-Medina Spirit (John Velazquez)
8-Law Professor (Kent Desormeaux)
9-The Great One (Abel Cedillo)
10-Defunded (Mike Smith)

The Santa Anita Derby is one of 6 stakes on the big card in Arcadia, which welcomes fans back in limited attendance for the first time in more than a year. No walkup ticket sales will be available; all seating must be purchased in advance. The card also features the Santa Anita Oaks, a pair of turf stakes, and a pair of stakes for the California-breds. First race post time will be noon PT.