Thursday 4/8/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Nick Borrman

Event: The Masters Outright Winner
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: April 8, 2021 9AM EDT
Play: Patrick Cantlay to Win The Masters (+2050)
The Masters
Outright Winner DraftKings
Cantlay is #2 on Tour over his last five starts in Total Strokes Gained over the field, averaging +2.5 strokes gained per round. On the season, he ranks #21 Off the Tee, #7 Around the Green, #8 Tee to Green and #6 Total Strokes Gained. He is 4th in Birdie average and 13th in Scoring Average. He has a win, a 2nd and a 3rd in his last eight starts which includes finishing T17 in the fall edition of the Masters. He also finished 9th here in 2019.
TAKE PATRICK CANTLAY +2050

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Nick Borrman

Event: Sergio Garcia vs Tommy Fleetwood
Sport/League: GLF
Date/Time: April 8, 2021 10AM EDT
Play: Sergio Garcia (-110)
The Masters
Tournament Matchup Offshore
Sergio #3 on Tour in Par 5 scoring this year. He has always been of the the best ball strikers on Tour and his iron game is always tremendous. Add in his driver this year which he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained Off the Tee and all he needs is an average putter to be right in contention as usually he struggles and loses strokes with his putter and of course this year is no different. But he tends to play well on difficult courses that rewards ball strikers. He finished T9 at the Players a couple weeks ago, where he was a previous winner and of course he is a previous Masters winner as well. He missed the fall edition of the Masters due to COVID so he is itching for this opportunity.
Fleetwood has just two Top 20 finishes this year in 8 stroke play events, although one of those came in the fall edition finishing T19 here in November. However, his ball striking numbers have been terrible all year, ranked #177 Off the Tee and #83 Approach. He can make up for that with a solid short game which he has, ranked #21, but he is just as bad as Sergio with the putter at #154 and I simply can’t trust a guy who isn’t hitting the ball well at Augusta.
TAKE SERGIO GARCIA OVER TOMMY FLEETWOOD
Line Parameter: 3% to -130

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (224413) Manchester United at (224414) Granada
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 8, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Manchester United -0.75 (-133)
We like Manchester United on the -0.75 handicap line on Thursday to win by margin against Granada.
Four wins from their last five at home across all competitions for Granada, but they take on tournament favorites Manchester United here on Thursday in what's likely a bridge too far for the Spanish club.
As good as Manchester United's domestic form has been this year, their European form has been standout also, as they've kept three clean sheets over their last four knockout stage matches and have scored in every Europa League knockout tie they've played in away from home in the competition's history.
Take Manchester United to win and cover on Thursday against Granada.
PLAY: MANCHESTER UNITED -0.75

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Tony Mejia

Event: (224405) Villarreal at (224406) Dinamo Zagreb
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 8, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Total Over 2.25 (+100)
Lovro Majer is the name to watch in this one for the Croatian side. He's just 23 and still hasn't made a splash internationally but is a weapon that will test the Villarreal defense and is a threat on free kicks. Swiss NT striker Mario Gavranovic is also set to start and I think we'll see Dinamo Zagreb take its chances aggressively at home. Villarreal has yet to lose in Europa League play and has Gerard Moreno, Paco Alcacer and Carlos Bacca all playing well. Expect to see goals in this one and ride the over.

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Bryan Leonard

Event: (23) New Jersey Devils at (24) Buffalo Sabres
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: April 8, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Buffalo Sabres +110
23 New Jersey at Buffalo
In 5x5 G+-/60 the Devils rank 18th and the Sabres 30th. In xG/60 New Jersey is -0.05 and the Sabres -0.43. A sizable differential for the road squad.
On the Power Play in G+-/60 the Devils rank 30th and the Sabres 13th. In xG/60 we find New Jersey +4.25 and Buffalo +5.44. I nice edge for the host.
Playing Short Handed in G+-/60the Devils rank 29th and the Sabres 14th. In xG/60 we see New Jersey at -7.49 and the Sabres -6.71. Another edge for the host.
While New Jersey is playing with next game revenge, the Sabres in actual goals and expected goals are the better team. Give us the host to sweep this quick two games series.
PLAY BUFFALO

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Tokyo Brandon

Event: (17) Pittsburgh Penguins at (18) New York Rangers
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: April 8, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: New York Rangers -125

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Tokyo Brandon

Event: (27) Dallas Stars at (28) Chicago Blackhawks
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: April 8, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: 1P Total Under 1.5 (-120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin Dolan

Event: (567) Milwaukee Bucks at (568) Dallas Mavericks
Sport/League: NBA
Date/Time: April 8, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Total Over 229.0 (-110)
Value on the Over tonight in Dallas.
The Mavericks come off a miserable display offensively last time out against Houston, posting a sub 40% shooting percentage (37.9%), with their effective field goal percentage dipping a full 11% also from their season average.
I expect a much better performance from Dallas tonight at home against this 14th ranked Milwaukee road defense, and the Bucks should be able to score also, bringing the league's 2nd best three point % rate to Dallas tonight.
Take the Over 229 between Milwaukee and Dallas for Thursday.
PLAY: OVER 229

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Bobby Conn

Apr 08 '21, 3:00 PM in 5h
Soccer | Manchester United vs Granada
Play on: Manchester United -171 at linepros

1* Free Play on Manchester United -171

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Black Widow

Apr 08 '21, 3:05 PM in 5h
MLB | BOS vs BAL
Play on: UNDER 9 +100

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Red Sox/Orioles under 9 +100

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Info Plays

Apr 08 '21, 4:10 PM in 6h
MLB | KC vs CWS
Play on: UNDER 9 -110

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Royals vs White Sox under 9 -110

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Jimmy Boyd

Apr 08 '21, 4:15 PM in 6h
MLB | Brewers vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +123 at pinnacle

1* Free Pick on Cardinals +123

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Our Experts Release Latest Kentucky Derby Top 10s

April 7, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

It’s Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes Week, the 3-week outpost until the 2021 Kentucky Derby. This pretty much will be last call for contenders to announce their credentials before the Run for the Roses.

Our resident historians and handicappers check back in with their mid-April Top 10 contenders for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. We’ve included the projected next start for each horse in parentheses (subject to change).

Jeff Siegel

#1 Essential Quality (Kentucky Derby)
#2 Rock Your World (Kentucky Derby)
#3 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Highly Motivated (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Medina Spirit (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#9 Helium (Kentucky Derby)
#10 Soup and Sandwich (Kentucky Derby)

Jon White

#1 Essential Quality (Kentucky Derby)
#2 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Rock Your World (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Highly Motivated (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Medina Spirit (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#9 Mandaloun (Kentucky Derby)
#10 Helium (Kentucky Derby)

John DeSantis

#1 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#2 Essential Quality (Kentucky Derby)
#3 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Rock Your World (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Highly Motivated (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Medina Spirit (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#9 Bourbonic (Kentucky Derby)
#10 Helium (Kentucky Derby)

Jeremy Plonk

#1 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#2 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Highly Motivated (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Rock Your World (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#9 Hozier (Arkansas Derby)
#10 Proxy (Lexington Stakes)

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GG Stats: Ayuso Pilots Prices

April 7, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Golden Gate Fields. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Northern California. And be sure to support GGF by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Golden Gate Fields.

Headlines

The Thursday-Sunday racing week starts with a $64,697 Rainbow 6 carryover jackpot … Turf racing returned last Thursday to Northern California, a welcome sign of spring … 2021 El Camino Real Derby winner Rombauer may have punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby when the Michael McCarthy trainee finished third in the Grade 2 Blue Grass on April 3 at Keeneland. Rombauer has 34 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, and owns a Preakness automatic berth via his El Camino Real Derby win … GGF is gearing up for its Gold Rush Weekend April 24-25, featuring the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile among 8 stakes in all. Nominations close April 15-16 … Grade 1 winner Keeper Ofthe Stars returned a popular winner here Apr. 3 in allowance company, her first start since August.

Stronach 5

Last week’s Stronach 5 paid $2,752 to 42 winning tickets. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 9, will be:

Leg A – Laurel Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:45 ET
Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:50 ET
Leg C – Laurel Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:16 ET
Leg D – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:22 ET
Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:27 ET

1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 2 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields, each posting at least 34% winners and a flat-bet profit.

Lifetime Earnings
Best Lifetime Speed

Trends Last Week

-- 10 races were held on the turf last week, the first such action of 2021. Favorites were 10: 6-1-2 on the green, and 9 winners were 5-2 or less odds. But a $130 claiming bomber on Friday blew up the tote.

-- Jockey Armando Ayuso not only orchestrated the big $130 upsetter last week, but was 14: 5-0-2 overall in a very strong showing. He also had a $74 longshot winner on the main track. His ROI was $8.51 for every $1 bet.

-- Trainer Michael McCarthy went 3: 2-0-1 on the grass last week, scoring with a couple of mile favorites. Kyle Frey, who posted a 9: 4-0-3 turf mark on week, was aboard both McCarthy victors.

-- Proving it can be a humbling game, trainer Steve Sherman’s runners were 0-7 last week, just 1 week after he won 7 races from 13 starters.

-- Favorites were 16-for-34 (47%) last week at Golden Gate, and have remained stout at 41% throughout the 2021 season.