Saturday 4/10/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:15 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Chelsea at Crystal Palace
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: April 10, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Chelsea + UNDER 3.5 Goals (+105)
England Premier League
I played on Chelsea midweek at Porto in the Champions League and am coming right back on them again on Saturday.
They travel to Crystal Palace and although this game is sandwiched in between their two legs against Porto as they play the 2nd leg this upcoming week, I see them coming in focused for this game as all of a sudden that one loss to West Brom last weekend has them on the outside of the Top 4 and that final Champions League qualification.
They are one point back of West Ham and only two points clear of both Tottenham and Liverpool so it’s a very tight race they simply cannot afford to drop more points. With some of the pressure of their Champions League tie off of them as they take a two goal lead into leg two, and even better both of those goals being counted as away goals, I expect them to be fully focused here.
Other than that West Brom hiccup, Tuchel is unbeaten in his 15 other matches as manager of Chelsea in which they team has conceded a TOTAL of just two goals. Remarkable.
When looking at xG, they own the 2nd best xG numbers in the league behind only Man City with a +0.86 xG differential per game. Compare that to Palace who have the third worst mark in the league at -0.70 per game.
Instead of laying the -1 goal on the road, I’m going to buy down the side and combine it with the Under 3.5 number again. I’ve also won three straight games with a Correct Score prediction by taking three options and if any one of them comes through we will net another 4-9%
1% Chelsea 2-0 (+600)
1% Chelsea 2-1 (+800)
1% Chelsea 3-0 (+1100)
TAKE CHELSEA + UNDER 3.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 4% to -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:18 AM

Andrew McInnis

Event: (24221) Mike Perry at (24222) Daniel Rodriguez
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: April 10, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Mike Perry +120
Platinum Mike Perry…Yup, I’m backing Mike Perry this Saturday and it’s too good of a spot to pass up.
Mike Perry is coming off a competitive loss to Tim means back in November in which he didn’t look prepared and didn’t seem mentally or physically into being ready for the fight and it showed as he lost to a less skilled fighter and showed he wasn’t in shape, missing weight by a ridiculous amount.
The fact I haven’t heard much from Mike Perry makes me feel more comfortable with him, when he was doing crazy stuff and acting out of control and showcasing how little he cared about fighting he let everybody know, as of late you haven’t seen or heard much of that which is a good sign and the fact he’s back in a gym environment with some teammates and training partners is also great. It seems like Perry is in a good space right now, doing all the right things you'd want from a fighter you're betting on, this spot as a short underdog almost feels disrespectful in Mike Perry's direction for what he's capable of.
Perry takes on Daniel Rodriguez who is a very talented fighter but not the smartest fighter and a guy who is willing to eat shots to land shots and who is coming off a loss in which he didn’t look good.

I believe the talent level is very even but I edge mike Perry in Cardio and experience and love this underdog spot for him. Perry will be the stronger fighter throughout and find his spots to get solid shots in on Rodriguez.
PLAY THE DOG +120

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:19 AM

Las Vegas Cris

Event: (83) Edmonton Oilers at (84) Calgary Flames
Sport/League: NHL
Date/Time: April 10, 2021 10PM EDT
Play: Edmonton Oilers -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:20 AM

Scott Rickenbach

Apr 10 '21, 10:00 AM in 2h
Soccer | Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Play on: Aston Villa +530 at linepros

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach EPL Saturday Free Pick Aston Villa +530 @ Liverpool @ 10 AM ET - Taking a shot on a big dog money line here but it certainly is not without good support. Liverpool has big-time revenge here from a beating in the first meeting at Aston Villa earlier this season. However, Liverpool already gained some measure of revenge with a 4-1 win in the 3rd round of English FA Cup action back in January. That said, lets talk about current form of these teams. Liverpool just can't quite get off the schneid and has been dreadful in home fixtures for quite some time including often struggling even to manage a goal. Aston Villa has been fantastic in road fixtures this season and no team has more clean sheets (8) on the road than they do in Premier League action this season. Simply too much big dog value to pass up on as now it is actually Aston Villa looking for some payback after getting thoroughly outplayed in the English FA Cup match-up. Plus they have the confidence since they beat them already earlier this season in convincing fashion (7-2) in the reverse fixture. Don't be surprised if we see a real shocker in this one. Free Pick ASTON VILLA +530

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:21 AM

Info Plays

Apr 10 '21, 11:00 AM in 3h
Soccer | SV Ried vs Admira
Play on: Admira +142 at linepros

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Admira +142

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:22 AM

Edzo's Saturday Spot Plays for Keeneland

April 9, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk

NBC Sports handicapper Eddie Olczyk returns for his Saturday, April 10 spot plays at Keeneland. While there's an all-stakes pick four later in the card, featuring the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, the undercard is where Edzo will be looking to make his bankroll moves.

Keeneland // Race 4 // 2:45 pm ET // allowance // 1-1/16 miles turf

#2 Ethical Judgement (3-1 ML)

This is a a race where you take your shot; it's wide, wide open. Ethical Judgement gets first Lasix for Brendan Walsh. He has a bullet workout in his most-recent morning move for a trainer who doesn’t really set his horses down in the a.m. That's a good sign by me. His lone grass start was good and 4-1 odds or better will make for a decent win wager. His price could rise off the morning line with Aviano and Floriform expected to be bet.

Keeneland // Race 6 // 3:51 pm ET // allowance // 1-1/16 miles dirt

#2 West Will Power (2-1 ML)

Going 2 turns is the key for me with this horse. His last race was a rough assignment in a 1-turn mile against strong competition. I say follow the speed of Noren, who is the speed of the race, and make one run at him. West Will Power could get bet as low as 9/5 and it would be okay with me. Win bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:22 AM

AI Picks: April 10 Triple Crown Preps

April 9, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

This Saturday’s Triple Crown prep races toward the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes will be the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. To help you handicap the premier stakes 3 weeks in advance of the Kentucky Derby.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Keeneland // Grade 3 Lexington Stakes // Race 9 // 5:30 PM ET

#10 Starrininmydreams // 23%W // 38%P // 49%S
#2 Swiftsure // 16%W // 28%P // 35%S
#9 King Fury // 15%W // 27%P // 48%S
#7 Proxy // 15%W // 25%P // 36%S
#8 Ultimate Badger // 8%W // 23%P // 37%S
#6 Hockey Dad // 5%W // 17%P // 25%S
#5 Unbridled Humor // 5%W // 11%P // 21%S
#4 It’s My House // 5%W // 10%P // 16%S
#1 Noble Reflection // 4%W // 13%P // 18%S
#3 Bezos // 4%W // 10%P // 16%S

Oaklawn Park // Grade 1 Arkansas Derby // Race 12 // 7:41 PM ET

#5 Concert Tour // 32%W // 57%P // 71%S
#3 Hozier // 18%W // 59%P // 72%S
#1 Super Stock // 15%W // 31%P // 53%S
#2 Caddo River // 14%W // 21%P // 50%S
#4 Get Her Number // 12%W // 20%P // 35%S
#6 Last Samurai // 8%W // 13%P // 18%S

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:22 AM

Jeff Siegel's 2021 Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings

April 8, 2021

Our Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. The horses listed are assumed to be candidates for at least one of the Triple Crown races.

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1 - ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 126 lbs.
Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
Lifetime record: 5-5-0-0 ($2,265,144). Derby points: 140
Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; 2020 Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old enters the Kentucky Derby-G1 with a perfect record in five starts, most recently when fully extended to win the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 (by a neck from Highly Motivated) while enjoying a trouble-free pace-stalking trip; had reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior); completed his 2-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 victories at Keeneland in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie and before that with a three and one-quarter length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 (from Keepmeinmind); speed figures have risen with every start but without a significant leap and with a career top Beyer number of a good-but-not-great 97; proven so far to be genuine and versatile while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands and with every expectation that he’ll continue to develop during the spring of his 3-year-old season.
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2 - ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 125 lbs.
Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($546,600). Derby points: 100
Last start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, 10F Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $650,000Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in three starts, most recently in his first try on dirt when registering a gate-to-wire victory in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Medina Spirit), setting fast fractions and then repelling all challenges to drew clear in the final furlong with complete authority (and galloping out far in front) while earning a career top 100 Beyer speed figure (tops among intended Kentucky Derby starters), previous two wins were accomplished on grass, the listed 8F Pasadena S. in February in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) and a maiden over 6F on grass on New Year’s Day (by one and three-quarter lengths while appearing to toy with his opposition); pedigree suggests he’ll thrive over a classic distance and farther; has proven to be effective on the lead or from a stalking position though he’s yet to experience dirt kickback; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 at least among the first three favorites; not a particularly willing performer in the morning and is still a bit green in the p.m. (switched leads twice in the stretch in his most recent start) but has the kind of potential that could reach a championship level.
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3 - CONCERT TOUR (B. Baffert) – 124 lbs.
Pedigree: Street Sense – Purse Strings, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($756,600). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 13, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 8.5FF Rebel S.-G2, finished first.
Next start: April 10, 2021, Oaklawn Park, 9F Arkansas Derby.-G1
Latest workout: April 3, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.4h

The skinny: Gary and Mary West Stables homebred; second foal; dam 6F maiden special weight winner at Churchill Downs in 12th (and final) career start; no black type in first two generations; third dam is the granddam of Stardom Bound (champion, BC Juvenile Fillies-G1); unbeaten in three career starts, most recently a dominating gate-to-wire victory in the 8.5F Rebel S.-G2 at Oaklawn Park (by four and one-quarter lengths from stable mate Hozier), quickly establishing the pace from his outside draw and then, after disposing of favored Caddo River, drawing clear under mild urging to win with plenty left; earned solid but not great 94 Beyer speed figure; previously successful with a pace-pressing trip as the 2/5 favorite in five-runner 7F San Vicente S.-G2 (by one-half length from stable mate Freedom Fighter) after winning his debut three weeks earlier in 6F maiden sprint in a highly impressive performance at Santa Anita (forced pace, then kicked clear with power and with plenty left); pedigree suggests a classic distance could be within his capabilities; has so far followed the identical pattern/schedule as B. Baffert’s top class colt from last year, Nadal; likely to use the Arkansas Derby-G1 (April 10) as his final springboard to the Kentucky Derby-G1 three weeks later and seems certain to be a heavy favorite; based purely on speed figures still has some doubters but seems likely to enter the spring classics with an undefeated record.
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4 – KNOWN AGENDA (T. Pletcher) – 123 lbs.
Pedigree: Curlin – Byrama, by Byron
Lifetime record: 6-3-1-1 ($541,700). Derby points: 102
Last start: March 28, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: St. Elias Stable homebred, dam Gr-1 9F dirt winner in California; verified the highly favorable impression he made in an 11-length 9F allowance victory at Gulfstream Park in February by returning the following month to capture the Florida Derby-G1 over that same track and distance with complete authority (by two and three-quarter lengths from Soup and Sandwich); earned a career top speed figure in that race and appears to be developing with maturity, experience, the addition of blinkers in his last two starts, and with distance as is typical of offspring of Curlin; was thought of early in his career as a long-winded, plodding type but has displayed improved tactical speed and late acceleration in recent starts; seems certain to enjoy the 10 furlong trip of the Kentucky Derby-G1 and is likely to step forward again and be a major player in the spring classics.
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5 - HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 122 lbs.
Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
Lifetime record: 7-2-1-02 ($1,00,700). Derby points: 110
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 3, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2h

The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; versatile colt has been successful on the lead or from off the pace and returned to winning form in his second 2021 outing when making all in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, relaxing without undue pressure to the top of the lane and then fighting off all challenges to register two length score (from Midnight Bourbon) while establishing new track record (1:55.06) and earning a career top 99 Beyer speed figure; had displayed plenty of promise during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home while likely needing the outing; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; will be trained up to the Kentucky Derby with six weeks in between starts.
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6 – HIGHLY MOTIVATED (C. Brown) – 120 lbs.
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward
Lifetime record: 5-2-2-1 ($320,050). Derby points: 50
Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The Skinny: $240K though the ring as a weanling (retained by his breeder); first foal, dam a Canadian-bred sprint SW at 3; in the frame in all five career starts and earned a career top speed figure in early April when second (was five and one-half lengths clear of the rest) as the controlling speed in the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 by a neck to Essential Quality, giving way grudgingly close home but with a trip that may have flattered the performance; previously appeared a tad rusty when third (by a length and three-quarters to Weyburn) when making his seasonal bow in the 8F Gotham S-G3 the previous month; displayed plenty of potential when easily capturing the listed 6.5F Nyquist S. on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Keeneland in November; pedigree suggests a classic distance will be stretching his limit; not likely to enjoy the same type of soft trip in the Kentucky Derby-G1 that he did in his most recent outing and thus his chances must be viewed as somewhat suspect in the spring classics despite the quality and consistency that he’s displayed so far in his five-race career.
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7 - MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 119 lbs.
Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
Lifetime record: 5-2-3-0 ($315,200). Derby points: 74
Last start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F, Kentucky Dereby-G1
Latest workout: None since raced

The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from first crop of multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); was no match Rock Your World when second (beaten four and one-quarter lengths) in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April when favored at 4/5, enjoying an ideal pace-stalking trip outside but then proving unable to quicken when the pressure was turned on at the head of the lane; previously had finished a well-beaten second to unbeaten Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout and before that displaying extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; speed figures are decent but have stagnated in recent outings; pedigree suggests he’ll handle a classic distance but though he’s clearly a reliable and consistent sort his lack of progression and his one-paced style indicate he may have reached his ceiling.
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8 – MIDNIGHT BOURBON (S. Asmussen) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Tiznow – Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon
Lifetime record: 7-2-2-3 ($461,420. Derby points: 66
Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished second
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 4, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01.1b

The Skinny: $525K yearling, half-brother to three black-type performers, including Girvin (Haskell Invitational G1, etc.) and Cocked and Loaded (Iroquois S.-G2, etc.); never off the board in seven career starts with his most notable win the 8.5F Lecomte S.-G3 at Fair Grounds in January (gate-to-wire, by one length from Proxy); subsequently finished third (by one and three-quarters lengths to Mandaloun) in 9F Risen Star S.-G2 in February and then most recently second in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby (by two lengths from Hot Rod Charlie) the following month; perhaps most effective when able to make the running though he has performed well in a stalker’s role; good recent Beyer speed figures indicate there’s better likely to come; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 following a six week layoff; clearly a genuine and consistent type though on resume not quite up to the level of the leaders in the division at this stage.
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9 – HELLIUM (M. Casse) – 118 lbs.
Pedigree: Ironicus – Thundering Emilla, by Thunder Gulch
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($287,763). Derby points: 50
Last start: March 6, 2021, Tampa Bay Downs, Tampa Bay Derby-G2, finished first
Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest workout: April 3, Palm Meadows, 5f, 1:01.2b

The skinny $55,000Y; fourth foal, half-brother to Peruvian Gr. 1 winner Emilia’s Moon (by Malibu Moon); dam G3 SW in Peru; undefeated in three starts including the 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his 3-year-old debut (by three-quarters of a length from Hidden Stash), producing a steady bid (was 10th early) to secure the win in good style from a moderate field; previously had won both of his starts as a 2-year-old over the Woodbine synthetic surface (both at seven furlongs), a maiden in September (by three and one-quarter lengths from Excellorator) and then the listed Display S. the following month (by four and one-quarter lengths from Gospel Way); versatile colt has won pressing the pace and from far off the pace; bred to handle any surface and apparently does; should stay a classic distance; speed figures aren’t yet close to being competitive with the tops in his division and will have two months in between races while training up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; obviously is a colt of some quality but the strategy from his connections appears to place a higher emphasis on making the Derby field than actually providing him the proper preparation to have a chance to win it.
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10 – SOUP OR SANDWICH (M. Casse) – 118
Pedigree: Into Mischief – Souper Scoop, by Tapit
Lifetime record: 3-2-1-0 ($203,875). Derby points: 40
Last Start: March 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park, 9F Florida Derby-G1 finished second
Next Start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
Latest Workout: None since raced
The skinny: Live Oak Stud homebred; dam a two-time winner from the solid Illinois-based staying family of Arlington Oaks-GT3 winner Til Forbid; successful in his first two career starts, a 6.5F maiden sprint at Gulfstream Park (by seven and one-quarter lengths) in January and then in a first-level miler at Tampa Bay Downs the following month (by two and three-quarter lengths) before stepping up significantly in class when a sharp runner-up in the 9F Florida Derby-G1 (by two and three-quarter lengths to Known Agenda) in his most recent start, pressing the pace outside and then staying on admirably under pressure in the final furlong; likely to continue to improve with experience and has a good tactical speed style without requiring the lead to win; connections might be wise to point for the Preakness S,-G2 that promises to be far less demanding that the Kentucky Derby-G1; talented colt to be sure and it will be interesting to see how ambitious his connections get.
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Also eligible: O Besos (G. Foley); Bourbonic (T. Pletcher); Dynamic One; (T. Pletcher); Dream Shake (P. Eurton); Rombauer (M. McCarthy); Mandaloun (B. Cox); Crowded Trade (C. Brown); Like the King (W. Ward); Hozier (B. Baffert); Proxy(M. Stidham).

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:23 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Jenny Wiley at Keeneland

April 8, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$300,000 GRADE 1 JENNY WILEY STAKES AT KEENELAND
Saturday, April 10, 2021

The Lead:
Following a $520 score in this space last week in the Santa Anita Oaks, let's keep the roll going into Triple Crown season. Saturday's Keeneland card features 4 stakes races all in an all-stakes pick 4, spanning Races 7-10. The Grade 1 main event, the Jenny Wiley, anchors the bet in Race 10 and has attracted an evenly matched group of 6.

Field Depth:
ETOILE is the field's lone Grade 1 winner. MICHELINE, TAMAHERE and MAXIM RATE are Grade 2 winners. JULIET FOXTROT and LA SIGNARE have won Grade 3s. These are evenly matched on class, tough ETOILE has held up internationally in top-flight races.

Pace:
There's very little early speed in this 1-1/16 miles race, which should put JULIET FOXTROT in a pace-advantaged situation up front. Aggressive rider Luis Saez may try to put MICHELINE into the mix more than she shows on paper from her rail draw. MAXIM RATE could sit second or third.

Our Eyes:
Trainer Chad Brown has dominated the Jenny Wiley in recent years, winning 3 straight and 4 of the last 6. He's done it with the likes of superstars Sistercharlie and 2-time winner Rushing Fall, but also with Ball Dancing. ETOILE and TAMAHERE both appear capable of keeping Brown's stranglehold on this race, while likely fitting on talent somewhere between his upper-echelon Jenny Wiley winners and Ball Dancing. ETOILE won the EP Taylor at Woodbine last fall when that race didn't get its usual deep crop of shippers due to COVID-19 restrictions and protocols. But her Group 3 win in France and her narrow defeat in the Group 1 French Oaks (Prix de Diane) indicate she's of high quality. Her races in France were much more difficult than those of TAMAHERE. Both have won in North American since arriving for the 2020 season. The preference here is to ETOILE, even if this trip might be a bit short of her best and closer to TAMAHERE's wheel-house.

Alternatives to the Brown barrage include JULIET FOXTROT trying to steal away up front. She's was third in this race last year when against a much tougher field that included Rushing Fall and Jolie Olimpica. Her hard-luck second in Keeneland's 2019 First Lady came when nabbled late by the dazzling miler Uni. She was an allowance winner here in 2019 in her only other local turf try, so you know she handles the course.

MICHELINE was second last Fall in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland vs. 3-year-old fillies. Now 4, she comes off a nice win beating elders from a terrible post draw at Tampa Bay Downs. Hot-riding Luis Saez takes the mount again as he had at Tampa. With Joel Rosario away at Oaklawn to ride Saturday, Saez could be sitting on a monster afternoon based on his early meet performances. Tampa Bay Downs preppers won the Jenny Wiley from 2015-2017 in succession.

LA SIGNARE was a distant 7th in this race last year at 22-1 and has lost 5 straight. But she was only a length behind MICHELINE last out at Tampa. MAXIM RATE comes in from California for a Simon Callaghan barn that's willing to take a shot at Keeneland. But he's come away 0-10 in those major stakes bids, including a 7th-place effort by MAXIM RATE in the 2019 Valley View over this course and distance.

There's a forecast for rain on Saturday in Lexington, so the wetter the conditions, the better for the European exports.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
JULIET FOXTROT has a cozy pace projection, is 3-for-3 in the trifecta on the Keeneland turf, and has finished in the superfecta in 10 of her last 11 starts.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
Don't expect a big price in this race and it's difficult to project anything in double-digits in the trifecta.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$80 exacta ETOILE over JULIET FOXTROT. $20 exacta JULIET FOXTROT over ETOILE.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:23 AM

Our Experts Release Latest Kentucky Derby Top 10s

April 7, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

It’s Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes Week, the 3-week outpost until the 2021 Kentucky Derby. This pretty much will be last call for contenders to announce their credentials before the Run for the Roses.

Our resident historians and handicappers check back in with their mid-April Top 10 contenders for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. We’ve included the projected next start for each horse in parentheses (subject to change).

Jeff Siegel

#1 Essential Quality (Kentucky Derby)
#2 Rock Your World (Kentucky Derby)
#3 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Highly Motivated (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Medina Spirit (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#9 Helium (Kentucky Derby)
#10 Soup and Sandwich (Kentucky Derby)

Jon White

#1 Essential Quality (Kentucky Derby)
#2 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Rock Your World (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Highly Motivated (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Medina Spirit (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#9 Mandaloun (Kentucky Derby)
#10 Helium (Kentucky Derby)

John DeSantis

#1 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#2 Essential Quality (Kentucky Derby)
#3 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Rock Your World (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Highly Motivated (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Medina Spirit (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#9 Bourbonic (Kentucky Derby)
#10 Helium (Kentucky Derby)

Jeremy Plonk

#1 Essential Quality (Blue Grass)
#2 Concert Tour (Arkansas Derby)
#3 Known Agenda (Kentucky Derby)
#4 Highly Motivated (Kentucky Derby)
#5 Medina Spirit (Kentucky Derby)
#6 Rock Your World (Kentucky Derby)
#7 Hot Rod Charlie (Kentucky Derby)
#8 Midnight Bourbon (Kentucky Derby)
#9 Hozier (Arkansas Derby)
#10 Proxy (Lexington Stakes)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:23 AM

Arkansas Derby Horse-by-Horse Analysis & Selections

April 8, 2021 | By Johnny D

It’s challenging being the champ; walking (and running) around with a bullseye plastered on your hind end. Ever since being honored as the nation’s top 2-year-old in January, Essential Quality has worn the crown well. He appeared to be on-the-ropes Saturday in the Keeneland stretch, when Highly Motivated proved a surprisingly stubborn foe in the Blue Grass but, in the end, Essential Quality did what champs do: he won…again. Trainer Brad Cox has to feel confident as his charge has cleared the final hurdle toward the Kentucky Derby still unbeaten. It would appear, as they say around the racetrack and at family holiday barbeques, ‘there’s more in the tank.’

How much more? Good question. If the champ really was rocked by Highly Motivated’s punch, it would be a negative heading toward the big race on the first Saturday in May in Louisville--hometown of ‘The Greatest’ and World Heavyweight Champion Muhammad Ali. But, perhaps, in true Ali fashion, Essential Quality might have merely been playing ‘rope-a-dope’ in the Blue Grass, seemingly in trouble while actually in total control?

Either way, the consensus number one-ranked challenger to Essential Quality’s championship belt is in action Saturday at Oaklawn Park in the Arkansas Derby. Concert Tour hails from the Bob Baffert outfit--the top stable for 3-year-old champions ever—and, based on his last two workouts at Santa Anita, he appears ‘loaded for bear.’ Baffert has used the Arkansas Derby as the perfect launching pad toward Louisville success before and has a mind to do it again.

If there’s a stumbling block in Concert Tour’s path Saturday, we can’t see it. He should put his high cruising speed and developing talent on display for all to see. It’s notable that even though this race carries 170 points toward spots in the Kentucky Derby starting gate there are no fresh faces shipping in while attempting to add Louisville digits. That’s partly because connections nationwide were repelled by Concert Tour’s vigor in winning the Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes.

Even if he proves dominant in Razorback country, come May 1, the son of Street Sense probably won’t be favored in Louisville. That’s because there’s an unwritten rule that says you’ve got to knock out the champ before you can wear the belt. And, even though Highly Motivated got in a few good licks through the Blue Grass stretch, the referee triumphantly ultimately raised Essential Quality’s hoof for the fifth time in as many bouts.

Below is one man’s opinion of Saturday’s Arkansas Derby with a suggested play.

GRADE 1, $1,000,000 ARKANSAS DERBY
OAKLAWN PARK (RACE 12 @ 7:41PM ET) // 1 1/8 MILES
Kentucky Derby Points: 100-40-20-10

1. SUPER STOCK (ASMUSSEN/TALAMO) - 6/1

This guy finished a well-beaten fourth in the Gr. 2 Rebel last out behind the Baffert duo of #5 Concert Tour and #3 Hozier. That was his seventh lifetime start and first since October. He has one win—a five and one-half furlong restricted stakes at Lone Star in August--a pair of seconds and a pair of thirds to his credit. He finished third in the Gr. 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland, over four lengths behind 2-year-old champ and current sophomore leader Essential Quality. This son of Dialed In was 40-1 in the Rebel and outran his odds. In fact, he didn’t run badly at all. From the far outside 8-hole, he was four-wide into the first turn, steadied briefly early down the backside, and raced between horses throughout. He finished ok in the lane and barely got up for fourth, just three-quarters of a length behind runner up #3 Hosier. If he improves off that race and has a better trip, which he might while moving from the outside starting post to the inside one, he should be part of the exotics. Exotics.

2. CADDO RIVER (COX/GEROUX) - 7/2

Last out in the Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes, jockey Geroux and #2 Caddo River left from the number one post position. From the seven-hole, the race’s other speed horse, #5 Concert Tour outbroke the field. That left Geroux hustling and scrubbing on #2 Caddo River to hold the rail position into the first turn. They couldn’t. #5 Concert Tour was too quick for them. A similar situation appears here in the Gr. 1 Arkansas Derby. #2 Caddo River again is drawn inside #5 Concert Tour. Obviously, much depends on how alertly they break from the gate. But here’s the issue for #2 Caddo River: He wasn’t good enough to stalk #5 Concert Tour and still hang around. In fact, he faded to fifth, beaten more than six lengths. That suggests that even if #2 Caddo River outbreaks #5 Concert Tour, the latter will just stalk and take over when desirable. A more critical question for horseplayers is: When #5 Concert Tour asserts his domination, how will #2 Caddo River react? Will he hang around for a piece of the exotics or fade away in the lane? He had no answer late in the Gr. 2 Rebel Stakes. Bottom of Exotics.

3. HOZIER (BAFFERT/GARCIA) - 3/1

He’s finished behind stablemate #5 Concert Tour twice in three races and there’s no reason to think he’ll flip the script this time. This son of Pioneerof the Nile had a rail skimming, dream trip in the Gr. 2 Rebel last out and finished well enough to hold second. Jockey Martin Garcia will attempt to drop back a bit early, save ground and maintain another rail-skimming trip. If that works out, this colt could get another nice check for his owners. The morning line price isn’t attractive but he’s a Baffert pupil and was second to the favorite last out. He’s also made just three lifetime starts, so he could have upside. Must use in exotics a bit but is no bargain at the listed price. Exotics Defensively.

4. GET HER NUMBER (MILLER/ARRIETA) - 6/1

He comes out of the Gr.2 Rebel along with everyone else in the field except for #6 Last Samurai. That was this son of Dialed In’s first start since September and he appeared to need the race. He was running ok until he was sideswiped at the eighth pole, losing all momentum and shifting back to his right lead. This colt showed ability at two and is a Grade 1 winner—American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita where he defeated Rombauer and Spielberg—two colts of some repute. He also won a maiden turf sprint first time out going five furlongs at Del Mar. Jockey Arrieta replaces Hall of Fame member Javier Castellano in the saddle but no worries, the replacement knows his way around Oaklawn. This is a runner that could improve while having a race under his belt and a clean trip. Count him firmly in exotics. Exotics.

5. CONCERT TOUR (BAFFERT/ROSARIO) - 1/1

Unbeaten in three starts, this colt appears as Bob Baffert’s best chance to win the 2021 Kentucky Derby. The son of Street Sense faces much the same group he soundly defeated in mid-March and there’s absolutely no reason to think he won’t do the same Saturday. He’s got speed, a great post position, the ability to get the distance and he’s already dominated all but one of these foes. Is he a cinch? There’s no such thing. But he’s as close to one as you’ll find. There may be some concern that he could become embroiled in a speed duel with #2 Caddo River early and that such a confrontation might open the door for a closer to take advantage. We don’t see that. #5 Concert Tour is quicker than #2 Caddo River and a better horse. If #2 Caddo River outbreaks him, #5 Concert Tour can just sit off that one and take him whenever jockey Joel Rosario decides it’s time. All considered, a victory in this race will set this colt up perfectly for a big run at the brass ring in Louisville May 1. Win Only.

6. LAST SAMURAI (STEWART/COURT) - 15/1

Trainer Dallas Stewart is not opposed to taking a shot in graded stakes races. And he’s had some successes at huge odds. Don’t see that this is one of those occasions, but Stewart’s triumphs often are invisible just before appearing in the exacta at boxcar payoffs. This colt was 56-1 last out in the Southwest Stakes when fifth, beaten over 13 lengths over a ‘sloppy’ track. That was his first start since he beat one horse in an allowance race at Churchill in October. Pass.

BOTTOM LINE

This really isn’t much of a betting race, but you could play around with Tris or Supers for some action. #5 Concert Tour is best. The wonder is how to stack the rest in the proper order. Two runners who could improve off previous efforts in the Gr. 2 Rebel are #1 Super Stock and #4 Get Her Number. #3 Hosier should run well again, but he got a perfect trip in the Gr. 2 Rebel and he’s a shorter price than the preceding pair. #2 Caddo River may hang around for an exotic slice, but he didn’t last time going a shorter distance and he’s probably not going to be much price.

Suggested Wager

$1 Superfecta ($12 Bet Total)

1st: #5
2nd: #1, #4
3rd: #1, #2 #3, #4
4th: #1, #2, #3, #4

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:24 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

April 10, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight at the Meadowlands the co-featured sixth race kicks off the 0.50 Early Pick 4. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

4-Nows The Moment (5-1)-Came off the bench as the post time favorite and then had a bumpy journey. Raced wide into a .27 opening quarter, then was pulled at the top of the stretch and was game to the wire against a strong winner. Major player with a decent trip.
7-JL Cruze (2-1) Was used hard in a quick mile at DD after being off for 24 days, and that didn't work well. Now returns to his favorite track, and M1 record is 27 wins in 65 starts. Dunn is back aboard and should be put in play at the word GO.

Race 7

4-Franco Totem N (7/2)-Came off a sick scratch with a 54.3 back half to win. Steps-up but fits well with this group. Dunn makes a return between the pipes and he knows well. Best to respect and does like the track winning 10 of 34 starts.
5-U S Captain (9/2)-Raced an even 3rd in last, now drops and draws well. Winner in 6 of 23 Big M starts should be a main player here and the Lare barn is batting a hot 35% in the last 30 days.
7-Harambeo Deo (3-1)-Beaten favorite steps-up but has downed better than this in the past. AMac is back in the bike and is this another who likes to take pictures at M1. Should be on the engine or in the pocket and either trip could work nicely.

Race 8

2-Reign Of Honor (3-1)-Melander trainee comes off a sharp gate to wire win and now steps-up. Tetrick should have this lightly raced 5-year-old dialed on high. Anything close to last week's 152.1 mile should be tough to beat.
3-Emma Town Bud (6-1)-Trotted a 55.3 back half in the 1st start off the bench. Winner of >$101K last year should be tighter tonight. Does meet better but Hoosier invader shouldn't blush at the company.
5-Winnerup (9/2)-Twice beaten favorite will need to be at his best versus this kind. In the last 2 starts Gingras raced near the top, this time it may work best coming off cover. Burke trainee should offer a fair price and if so, it would make sense to use in gimmicks.

Race 9

3-My Pal Joe (9/2)-Ships in from YR and has taken pictures in 4 of 9 starts at M1. Can show big speed and this post draw won't hurt chances. Could be a solid price and might be overlooked at the windows.
4-Levinne (10-1)-Will take a swing at this price shot and will shoot against #1 who is the morning line chalk. Zeron had big tries with the #7 and #9 last time but owns this 4-year-old and his girl friend trains. Should be in the hunt throughout and has the gate speed to get an efficient trip.
9-Stone Hanover (8-1)-Returned last week from Pompano and rallied with a 53.4 back half to cash a 3rd place check. My take is #1 will be challenged early and the pace should be lively. Toscano trainee is usually in the mix and Dunn could close fastest of all.

0.50 Early Pick 4

4,7/4,5,7/2,3,5/3,4,9
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:25 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 4/10/21

April 10, 2021
Every Friday thru Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6.

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Oaklawn Park – Sixth Race – Post time: 2:55 CT
5-Edgeway (9/5)

Was quite successful in her 4-year-old debut at Santa Anita in early February, easily winning from an overmatched allowance field with strong speed figure while under wraps near the wire. The J. Sadler-trained filly surely will benefit from that tightener in today’s $250,000 Carousel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and while better will be needed she appears more than capable of accepting the challenge. Listed as the second choice on the morning line at 9/5 behind favored Frank’s Rockette (7/5), the daughter of Competitive Edge projects to enjoy an ideal stalk-and-pounce trip under J. Rosario. We know she likes this track, as she won twice at Oaklawn Park last year.

Golden Gate Fields – Seventh Race – Post time: 4:20 ET
4-Cheater’s Waltz (9/2)

This straight maiden sprint for sophomore fillies is begging to be won by a fresh face, and Cheater’s Waltz – with speed breeding a series of good workouts – fits the bill quite nicely. From a stable that boasts superior stats with the first-time starter angle, this daughter of Grazen attracts the barn’s “go-to” rider W. Antongeorgi III while showing a healthy work tab that includes a recent bullet five furlong workout (1:01h) to have her fit and ready. At anywhere near her morning line of 9/2, the S. Miyadi-trained 3-year-old is worth a gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-10-2021, 06:27 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 4/10/21

April 10, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

View Santa Anita Daily Workout Report

View Lexington Stakes-G3 Video Analysis

View Arkansas Deerby-G1 Video Analysis

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Littlebidamedal; 4-Posterize

Forecast: Littlebitamedal and Posterize meet again after finishing one-two in a recent starter’s allowance ($25,000) affair over this track and distance last month. ‘Medal is a prototype late-running sprinter and got plenty of help up front to compliment his style in that victory but today’s pace flow may not be so favorable and that, coupled with a small a two pound shift in the weights, could bring the two together. These will be the two main players in this six-runner affair for $40,000 older sellers so we’ll pass the race but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Lone Scout; 5-Papale

Forecast: Lone Scout is improving with racing and shows speed figures moving in the right direction, so we’ll put the son of Tonalist on top in this maiden optional claiming miler that attracted just five entrants. He’s back on the main track and his pedigree suggests he’ll be more comfortable on dirt, so with the switch back to J. J. Hernandez the R. B. Hess, Jr.-trained colt appears capable of producing the last run. Papale actually finished first in a race last November but was disqualified, so he’s still a maiden. The Frosted gelding retains F. Prat, shows a sharp recent half mile workout, and is another with numbers that have steadily risen in recent outings. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Lone Scout.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Gerlach’s; 4-Luckys Last Stand

Forecast: Luckys Last Stand is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this five-runner maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for state-bred sophomores and on paper looks even shorter than that. In the frame in both of his career starts and five lengths clear of the rest when narrowly missing in a similar event last month, the son of Lucky Pulpit really won’t have to improve much at all to handle this modest task. Gerlach’s may be a bit better than shown and represents a bit of a danger from off the pace. He’s probably worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up but the main push should go the Luckys Last Stand.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Stormin Ranger; 6-Your Royal Coil

Forecast: Your Royal Coil, first off the claim for A. Lerner and waiver protected in her first outing since August, returns with blinkers on, a comfortable outside post, and a work tab that should have her fit and ready. Her previous form over the Santa Anita main track was strong and consistent, so we’re expecting the daughter of Coil to be extremely well-meant in this restricted seller for $20,000 claiming fillies and mares. We’ll also toss in Stormin Ranger, also returning off a layoff from last summer and waiver protected for A. Kitchingman, whose record with comebackers in a small sample is outstanding. The work tab at San Luis Rey Downs should have her plenty fit, so if she can avoid trouble from the rail the daughter of U S Ranger will be heard from late. Your Royal Coil gets the edge on top but both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Moon Mischief; 5-Prince Magician

Forecast: Prince Magician drops to his lowest level ever in this maiden $25,000 claiming sprint and has speed figurers that are better than par for this level. He’s already had nine chances and therefore may not be one to trust, but if shows up with his best stuff the H. Palma-trained colt will be right there, especially with the switch to J. J. Hernandez. Moon Mischief is another class dropper with a big look and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. The switch to F. Prat is significant as is the addition of blinkers, so as the 9/5 morning line favorite the J. Sadler-trained son of Into Mischief is clearly the one to beat.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:48 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Exaulted; 4-Colt Fiction

Forecast: The 6/5 morning line favorite Exaulted is most effective as a late-running sprinter and gets ideal conditions in this entry-level allowance extended dash. A good third vs. considerably stronger in the San Carlos H.-G2 over this track and distance last time out, the son of Twirling Candy has finished in the money in all five of his starts over the Santa Anita main oval and with good racing luck from the rail should be along in time. For protection, you may want to have a back-up ticket that includes Colt Fiction. The W. Spawr-trained gelding is fairly fast on speed figures and has a good stalking style that makes him ideally suited for this seven furlong trip.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Conquest Cobra; 6-Colosi

Forecast: Conquest Cobra is double-jumped in class in a sign of confidence after a highly-rated win vs. $12,500 foes here last month. F. Prat stays aboard and should have this tough-as-nails gelding in a good stalking spot, ready to pounce when called upon. Colosi is another class riser in good form, though his recent speed figures aren’t quite to the level that ‘Cobra has been producing. The City Zip gelding is stretching out again and projects to be forwardly placed throughout with clear sailing outside. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Conquest Cobra on top,
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RACE 8: Post: 4:51 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Lambeau; 3-Charlito; 7-Bold Endeavor

Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive second-level allowance main track miler that requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play. Bold Endeavor is racing in razor sharp form and will be tough if he can add another strong race to the string. Worn down late over this track and distance last time out when almost four lengths clear of the others, the Bernardini gelding has a good stalking style that should produce a clean journey and with the switch to F. Prat the M. Glatt-trained veteran is the one to beat. Lambeau, away since last July, has run well fresh in the past and his recent workouts should have him fit enough. He’s most effective on the front end and seems likely to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Charlito is a progressive type fresh from a nice allowance win vs. lesser here in late February and with good workouts in the interim. With another forward move, the son of Feb Biz will be right there.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:23 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Al’s Princess; 5-Ensleys Dream; 9-Kind But She Lies

Forecast: Big Al’s Princess produced a good forward move when a game runner-up in her second career start last month and if she can improve again the V. Garcia-trained filly should be capable of earning her diploma in this modest maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies. Assuming she breaks well from the rail, the daughter of Bionetti could find herself as the controlling speed. Ensleys Dream adds blinkers for the first time after displaying early speed before fading as the favorite in a tougher maiden $50,000 event here in early March. She should stick better with these and has previous speed figures that put her right there. Kind But She Lies drops in class, shortens up, and returns to the main track. Look for her to be running on late.
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