Saturday 5/1/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 4	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three / $1 Daily Double
Maiden • 220 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 74 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 8:19P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * UNVEILED SECRET: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. CUTE DYNASTY: Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
6	UNVEILED SECRET	3/1	6/1
5	CUTE DYNASTY	12/1	6/1
3	FLY LIGHT	5/1	8/1
4	ABSOLUTE FAVORITE	2/1	8/1
2	RACE THRU THE FIRE	5/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	UNVEILED SECRET	6	3/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: SVELTE (6/1) [Jockey: Zepeda Alberto - Trainer: Willoughby Scott], RACE THRU THE FIRE (5/2) [Jockey: Mendez Cruz - Trainer: Casselman Michael V], FLY LIGHT (5/1) [Jockey: Salazar Victor M - Trainer: Willoughby Scott], ABSOLUTE

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour Wagers

Golden Hour Wagers - Race 4	Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick 4 Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Double
Starter Allowance $50,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Age 3 • CR: 84 • Purse: $19,000 • Post: 6:25P
GG - R10 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. (ONE WIN FOR $20,000 OR LESS WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED WHEN DETERMINING ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SWIFT AS I AM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CHIEF JACKSON: Horse has run a Good R ace within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PAPPY BOYINGTON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BOURBONWITHATWIST: Horse ranks in the top t hree in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
1	SWIFT AS I AM	9/5	5/1
6	CHIEF JACKSON	2/1	6/1
7	PAPPY BOYINGTON	4/1	6/1
4	BOURBONWITHATWIST	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	BOURBONWITHATWIST	4	8/1	Stalker	75	71	89.1	70.4	61.4
5	TIME IS GONE	5	15/1	Stalker	70	66	76.4	61.2	48.7
1	SWIFT AS I AM	1	9/5	Stalker	86	70	74.4	81.0	78.0
3	GORDON ANTHONY	3	15/1	Stalker	70	70	62.0	64.2	54.2
8	EVENEREVENWORSE	8	8/1	Stalker	72	75	55.8	64.2	53.2
7	PAPPY BOYINGTON	7	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	79	79.6	70.4	62.9
6	CHIEF JACKSON	6	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	88	70.0	58.4	52.4
2	BIG IRISH EYES	2	20/1	Trailer	71	68	69.8	55.8	43.8

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

05/01/21, CD, Race 12, 6.57 ET
05/01/21,CD,12,1 1/4M [Dirt] 1:59:02 STAKES. Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve. Grade 1. Purse $3,000,000. FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS, WITH AN ENTRY FEE OF $25,000 EACH AND A STARTING FEE OF $25,000 EACH.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	14	Essential Quality	2/1	Saez L	Cox Brad H.	EC	595	26.89	1.11/$1
099.3473	17	Highly Motivated	10/1	Castellano J	Brown Chad C.	W	454	25.77	1.16/$1
098.9153	15	Rock Your World	5/1	Rosario J	Sadler John W.	L	454	25.77	1.16/$1
097.3179	7	Mandaloun	15/1	Geroux F	Cox Brad H.		427	20.37	1.17/$1
097.3098	1	Known Agenda	6/1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Pletcher Todd A.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
096.9237	8	Medina Spirit	15/1	Velazquez J R	Baffert Bob		427	20.37	1.17/$1
096.8435	2	Like the King	50/1	Van Dyke D	Ward Wesley A.	T	454	25.77	1.16/$1
096.3754	9	Hot Rod Charlie	8/1	Prat F	O'Neill Doug F.	JS	454	25.77	1.16/$1
095.8535	19	Soup and Sandwich	30/1	Gaffalione T	Casse Mark E.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
095.6495	5	Sainthood	50/1	Lanerie C J	Pletcher Todd A.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
095.5567	11	Dynamic One	20/1	Ortiz J L	Pletcher Todd A.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
095.5511	10	Midnight Bourbon	20/1	Smith M E	Asmussen Steven M.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
095.5078	4	Keepmeinmind(b-)	50/1	Cohen D	Diodoro Robertino		454	25.77	1.16/$1
095.2251	3	Brooklyn Strong	50/1	Rispoli U	Velazquez Daniel		454	25.77	1.16/$1
095.1934	6	O Besos	20/1	Pedroza M	Foley Gregory D.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
094.9569	13	Hidden Stash	50/1	Bejarano R	Oliver Victoria H.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
094.6933	18	Super Stock	30/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
094.1071	20	Bourbonic	30/1	Carmouche K	Pletcher Todd A.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
093.8239	12	Helium	50/1	Leparoux J R	Casse Mark E.		454	25.77	1.16/$1
092.8261	16	King Fury	20/1	Hernandez. Jr. B J	McPeek Kenneth G.		454	25.77	1.16/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 24.07, ROI 1.29/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.6527
[Category]Condition
[All Categories] Race Age Not 4Up

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Arlington - Race #2 - Post: 2:55pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#2 GOLDEN LILY (ML=6/1)
#3 NO INTEREST (ML=7/2)


GOLDEN LILY - I believe the addition of blinkers today will help this filly focus her attention on racing. NO INTEREST - I like this mare. Has the uppermost earnings per race in today's contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PRESENT OF HERO (ML=8/5), #6 KURINGAI (ML=4/1), #1 BE AUTHENTIC (ML=5/1),

PRESENT OF HERO - Can't play this chalk horse off the extended vacation. KURINGAI - The fig last out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this entrant as a likely underlay. BE AUTHENTIC - This racer ran a mediocre speed rating in the last race. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat today running that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #2 GOLDEN LILY on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $75000 Class Rating: 83

DR. T.F. CLASSEN MEMORIAL S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD, ACCREDITED OHIO FOALS FOALED IN THE STATE OF OHIO AS PER REQUIREMENTS SET FORTH BY THE OHIO STATE RACING COMMISSION. NOMINATION FEE IS $50; $262 TO ENTER WITH AN ADDITIONAL $488 TO START, WITH A PURSE OF $75,000, OF WHICH 60% TO

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 GRIZABELLA 7/2
# 2 HERE COMES JIGS 10/1
# 9 DANCIN' ROSIE 10/1

I give the nod to GRIZABELLA here. Rivera has one of the top jockey ROI's on the grounds, returning to bettors +22 percent. Could beat this field given the 67 speed fig garnered in her last outing. Has competitive Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses - worth a look. HERE COMES JIGS - Has longshot potential and could score at big odds. The average class fig of 72 makes this horse difficult to beat. DANCIN' ROSIE - Well above average win rate at this distance/surface. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 77 - of her last contest.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 9:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,700 Class Rating: 42

Rating:

#7 ANGELS CASTLE (ML=3/1)


ANGELS CASTLE - Grams drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to think this horse will be tough to beat at this level. Good win percent this jock and trainer tandem have been putting together. She has the highest earnings per race entered. Take a good look at this horse.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SISTER JOANN (ML=5/2), #11 GYPSY LIVING (ML=7/2), #6 SONDE AFFAIR (ML=9/2),

SISTER JOANN - Would have to improve off that fifth place finish last time out to make an impact here. When examining today's class figure, she will have to register a better speed figure than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint. GYPSY LIVING - Doesn't seem to be in a comfortable circumstance this time out. SONDE AFFAIR - This filly hasn't had any recent success in sprint contests. Difficult to bet on her in this race. When examining today's class rating, she will have to garner a better speed figure than last time out to compete in this dirt sprint.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ANGELS CASTLE - Betting the animal with the best last race speed figure is a good angle. None higher than this filly's last one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #7 ANGELS CASTLE to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 67

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 MDA IM SECRET 7/2
# 10 SOUTHERN SEPERATION 8/1
# 1 FAMOUS COCKTAIL 9/2

MDA IM SECRET is my choice. Always seems to be right there at the finish. Must be given a chance based on the respectable speed fig recorded in the last contest. He has earned quite good figures under today's conditions and will probably fare well against this group. SOUTHERN SEPERATION - Should be given consideration here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. With Lara controlling the reins on him, this gelding will probably be able to break out quickly for this event. FAMOUS COCKTAIL - Could beat this group of horses given the 71 speed rating earned in his last outing.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

May 01 '21, 7:05 PM in 51m
MLB | Red Sox vs Rangers
Play on: Red Sox -174 at linepros

My free play is on the Bos Red Sox at ET.
Boston finished in last place in the AL East in 2020 and little was expected of them in 2021. Boston opened the current season getting swept at home by the Orioles in a three-game series but then ripped off NINE consecutive wins. The Red Sox cooled off in a 4-6 stretch but last night's 6-1 win in Arlington gives them a 17-10 record, which is a MLB-best. Texas made it to back-to-back World Series in 201 and 2011 but that seems like eons ago these days. Texas entered the current season off four straight non-playoff seasons, including goin an 'ugly' 22-28 in 2020. Texas lost its 2021 season opener and has never gotten back to .500 since. The Rangers inched to within one game of .500 at 9-10 (April 21) but have now lost SIX of eight to settle into the cellar of the AL West at 11-16.
Boston Lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (4-0, 3.52 ERA) will take the mound for the Red Sox in the second of this three-game series on Saturday, looking to win his fifth consecutive start to begin the year. He will be opposed by Jordan Lyles (1-2, 6.75 ERA) of the Rangers. Let me just 'cut to the chase.' Rodriguez sat out last season because of coronavirus concerns but was 13-5 in 2018 and 19-6 in 2019. He's returned to open 4-0 and Boston's record in games Rodriguez has started (since 2018) is a mind-blowing 49-14. Lyles began his career in 2011 and in 262 appearances (157 starts) over his career, stands 45-68 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.45. That mirrors his five stars in 2021, as he's 1-2 (team is 2-3) with a 6.75 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. I'll back "E-Rod!"
Good luck...Larry

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Sean Murphy

May 01 '21, 7:05 PM in 51m
MLB | BOS vs TEX
Play on: OVER 8½ -103

Saturday MLB Free play. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Texas at 7:05 pm et on Saturday.
We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night as the Red Sox and Rangers scored seven runs in the first 2 1/2 innings but none over the rest of the game. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Red Sox send Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill against Rangers starter Jordan Lyles. Note that the 'over' has gone an incredible 13-1 in Rodriguez's last 14 starts as a road favorite, with those games totaling an average of 12.9 runs. Rodriguez is off to a terrific start this season but I do think some regression is in order. He has recorded an unsustainable 2.3% walk percentage, noting that he owns a career 8.1% mark in that department. He's cruised through his last couple of starts but those came at home. He labored through his first two road outings of the season, lasting 10 innings and allowing nine hits and four earned runs. Jordan Lyles is off to a predictably tough start to the season, having recorded a 50.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .313 off of him and he's not surprisingly posted a 6.5% home run percentage when you consider he owns a 38.3% fly ball percentage through 24 innings of work. Take the over (8*).

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Dustin Hawkins

May 01 '21, 7:08 PM in 54m
NHL | Senators vs Canadiens
Play on: UNDER 6 -114

1 Dimer on Senators vs Canadiens under 6 -114

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Will Rogers

May 01 '21, 7:08 PM in 54m
NHL | Canucks vs Maple Leafs
Play on: Maple Leafs -1½ -117 at Draft Kings

The set-up: Vancouver somehow managed to beat Toronto in two straight games after a lengthy absence on the COVID list, but since then it's struggled. The Canucks are off a 4-1 loss here two nights ago and I expect a similar final score here as well. Vancouver has now lost three straight on the road, as it struggles to find consistency on both ends of the ice.
The pick: The Leafs are steamrolling towards the playoffs, they've won four in a row, totaling 17 goals in the process. Toronto keeps the foot on the gas here and buries the Canucks early. Lay the 1.5 goals for the much better price.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the Leafs on the puck-line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

May 01 '21, 7:08 PM in 54m
NHL | Devils vs Flyers
Play on: OVER 6 -108

I know you have better things to do today than get involved in a Devils-Flyers hockey matchup. At least I hope you do. But just look at this total. It's currently at 6. It's not stretching the imagination to think that at least six goals are going to be scored.
This is the fourth straight meeting between the two teams. The first of these was six days ago when seven goals were scored. Then the Devils and Flyers played this past Tuesday and 10 goals were produced. Once again the teams met this time two days ago and eight goals were scored. The Devils have surrendered 3 or more goals in 15 STRAIGHT games. They have the worst penalty kill unit in the NHL. Yet the Devils are superior to the Flyers defensively! Philadelphia gives up the most goals in the league at 3.5 per game. The Flyers are in back of only the Devils in being the least effective team to kill off penalties. The Over has cashed in 12 of the Flyers' last 15 games. Neither team is making the playoffs. So this should be another loose game lacking any semblance of defense.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

May 01 '21, 7:08 PM in 54m
NHL | Penguins vs Capitals
Play on: Capitals -109 at linepros

1* Free Pick on Capitals -109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

May 01 '21, 7:10 PM in 56m
MLB | Dodgers vs Brewers
Play on: Dodgers -124 at Draft Kings

Free Pick on Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

May 01 '21, 7:10 PM in 56m
NBA | Pistons vs Hornets
Play on: Pistons +7 -105 at pinnacle

1* on Pistons +7 -105