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Seventh Win by

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May 5, 2021 | By Jon White
One-hundred years ago, Herbert J. Thompson won the Kentucky Derby with Behave Yourself.

That 1921 triumph was just the beginning for Thompson, who went on to also win the Run for the Roses with Bubbling Over in 1926, Burgoo King in 1932 and Brokers Tip in 1933.

Those four victories earned Thompson the nickname “Derby Dick.”

In the Kentucky Derby media guide, he actually is listed as Herbert J. “Derby Dick” Thompson.

Thompson’s record of four Kentucky Derby wins was broken when “Plain Ben” Jones, as he was known, won it six times. Jones’ winners were Lawrin in 1938, Whirlaway in 1941, Pensive in 1944, Citation in 1948, Ponder in 1949 and Hill Gail in 1952.

Last Saturday, Jones’ longstanding record fell when Medina Spirit got the job done beneath Churchill Downs’ iconic twin spires to become trainer Bob Baffert’s seventh Kentucky Derby winner.

A century ago, there was “Derby Dick.”

Now we have “Derby Bob.”

Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002, American Pharoah in 2015, Justify in 2018, Authentic in 2020 and Medina Spirit in 2021.

Thompson became the first trainer to win the Kentucky Derby in back-to-back years when he did so with Burgoo King and Brokers Tip.

Brokers Tip won the famous “Fighting Derby” by a nose over Head Play. Don Meade rode Brokers Tip. Herb Fisher piloted Head Play.

In “The History of Thoroughbred Racing in America,” William H.P. Robertson wrote that Meade and Fisher “engaged in a violent fight” as Brokers Tip and Head Play were battling furiously for the lead while coming down the stretch toward the finish line.

“Meade and Fisher could be seen tugging and pushing at one another, although who was doing what to whom wasn’t clear, and immediately after they crossed the finish, Fisher slashed Meade across the face with his bat,” Robertson wrote.

Brokers Tip, who was a maiden going into the race, won that controversial Kentucky Derby by a nose. It would be his only victory in 14 lifetime starts.

For being naughty during the stretch run, Meade and Fisher were each handed a 30-day suspension. The stewards tacked on an additional five days to Fisher’s penalty for attacking Meade when he entered the jockeys’ room.

In yet more history made by Baffert last Saturday, he became the first trainer in Kentucky Derby history to win the race in back-to-back years twice.

In addition to Thompson, Jones and Baffert, the only other three trainers to have achieved the feat were Jimmy Jones (Iron Liege in 1957 and Tim Tam in 1958), Lucien Laurin (Riva Ridge in 1972 and Secretariat in 1973) and D. Wayne Lukas (Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Grindstone in 1996).

It was Lukas who just barely kept Baffert from winning the 1996 Kentucky Derby with Baffert’s first-ever starter in the race, Cavonnier, who lost by a scant nose to Grindstone. That nose is how close Baffert is to having eight Kentucky Derby victories.

SHOWING HEART TO FEND THEM ALL OFF

Despite Baffert’s considerable Kentucky Derby success prior to this year, Medina Spirit was allowed to get away at odds of 12-1 in the field of 19 last Saturday. The Kentucky-bred Protonico colt departed the gate in alert fashion and then proceeded to lead past every pole. He steadfastly refused to relinquish the lead all the way down the stretch while staving off Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie and 5-2 favorite Essential Quality, with those three finishing 2-3-4 in that order.

“Turning for home, they came to him and he just dug in,” Baffert said of Medina Spirit at the barn Sunday morning. “I still didn’t know if he was going to do it. But he just dug in and fought hard. It was sort of the same race as he ran at Santa Anita when he won the Robert Lewis. They came to him and he just fended them all off. He’s a blue-collar horse, but he has a huge heart.”

MOST TRIPLE CROWN RACE VICTORIES

Thanks to Medina Spirit, Baffert increased his record total number of wins in Triple Crown races to 17. The trainers with seven or more such wins are listed below:

Total (Ky. Derby, Preakness, Belmont wins) Trainer

17 (7-7-3) Bob Baffert
14 (4-6-4) D. Wayne Lukas
13 (3-4-6) “Sunny Jim” Fitzsimmons
11 (2-1-8) James Rowe
11 (0-7-4) R. Wyndam Walden
9 (3-2-4) Max Hirsch
9 (6-2-1) “Plain Ben” Jones
8 (2-1-5) Woody Stephens
7 (0-0-7) Sam Hildreth
7 (2-4-1) Jimmy Jones

If Baffert wins the Preakness at Pimlico on May 15, he will break the record for most victories by a trainer in that race. Baffert and R. Wyndam Walden currently share the record with seven wins apiece.

BAFFERT ALSO SETS RECORD FOR GRADE I WINS

Baffert won a pair of Grade I events at Churchill Downs last Saturday. Prior to Medina Spirit, overwhelming 1-5 favorite Gamine was victorious in the Grade I Derby City Distaff for Baffert.

According to Equibase, Gamine was former Quarter Horse trainer Baffert’s 220th Grade I win in Thoroughbred racing. This broke the record for most Grade I victories by a trainer that had been held by Lukas (another ex-Quarter Horse conditioner), who gave the call for riders up at the paddock prior to this year’s Kentucky Derby. Lukas, by the way, trains Ram, a $20.80 upset winner in the first race on last Saturday’s Kentucky Derby card.

When Medina Spirit won the Kentucky Derby, he raised Baffert’s number of Grade I Thoroughbred victories to 221.

What Baffert has accomplished as a trainer is truly astounding.

“Nobody has more manifest gifts as a horse whisperer than Baffert,” multiple Eclipse Award-winner Bill Nack wrote in GQ magazine back in 2003.

For Baffert to nearly win two Triple Crowns with Silver Charm and Real Quiet, “who were purchased for $102,000 combined, was one of the most startling training feats of the last half century,” as Nack put it.

Silver Charm brought $85,000 at auction. Real Quiet was a $17,000 buy.

Baffert said the determination that Medina Spirit showed coming down the stretch to win the Kentucky Derby reminded him of the gritty Silver Charm.

Of course, as you no doubt know, after Baffert came so close to Triple Crown glory with Silver Charm and Real Quiet in the 1990s, he did sweep the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont with American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018.

And now, as a consequence of last Saturday’s Kentucky Derby victory by Medina Spirit, Baffert is the only trainer who has a chance for a Triple Crown sweep this year.

Think of just how far Baffert has come since winning his first Thoroughbred race with Flipping Star at Rillito in Arizona on Jan. 28, 1979. The purse was $600. The purse in last Saturday’s Kentucky Derby was $3 million.

By not having one of the Kentucky Derby favorites this year, Baffert said he enjoyed himself during the week leading up to the race.

“It was nice to be under the radar,” Baffert said. “I thought it’d be nice that, if he’s good enough, maybe he’ll hit the board…I came in here, like, ‘We’re going to have fun.’ You know, I’ve been doing this for so long now I didn’t want to come in here and start bragging about my horse. Everybody was talking about their horse, but I wanted to come in here and have a good time and let the horse do the bragging, let him run the race. Usually when we come in here, we come in here with a heavy-hitter or a favorite, which is a lot of pressure. This wasn’t pressure. It was fun.”

Having fun is something that has been important to Baffert throughout his extraordinary training career. Fun is something he talked about in a 1987 article written by Diane Ciarloni Simmons for Speedhorse magazine when Baffert was training Gold Coast Express, a World Champion Quarter Horse.

“I’ll quit training the day it’s no longer fun, the day I have to drag myself to the barn,” Baffert was quoted as saying.

THIS YEAR’S DERBY WINNER A HUGE BARGAIN

While adding his name to the illustrious list of Kentucky Derby winners, Medina Spirit increased his earnings thus far to $2,175,200.

Bred in Florida by Gail Rice, Medina Spirit brought a final bid of only $1,000 from Christy Whitman at the 2019 Ocala Breeders’ Sales Company’s Winter Mixed Sale. Bloodstock agent and private clocker Gary Young, acting on behalf of Amr F. Zedan, purchased the dark-hued colt for $35,000 from the Ocala Breeders’ Sales 2020 July 2-Year-Olds & Horses of Racing Age sale.

The 1971 Kentucky Derby winner Canonero II sold for $1,200 as a yearling. The 2021 Kentucky Derby winner sold for $1,000 as a yearling. Perhaps it will turn out that the 2071 Kentucky Derby winner likewise will have been sold as a yearling for $1,000 or so.

FLORIDA DROUGHT COMES TO AN END

Medina Spirit is the seventh Florida-bred to capture the Kentucky Derby. He’s the first since Silver Charm in 1997.

The first Florida-bred Kentucky Derby winner was Needles in 1956, followed by Carry Back in 1961, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Affirmed in 1978, Unbridled in 1990, Silver Charm and Medina Spirit.

Speaking of Unbridled, he is the maternal grandsire of Medina Spirit’s dam, Mongolian Changa. Mongolian Changa made six starts, all in 2016, winning once, a one-mile maiden race on Presque Isle Downs’ synthetic surface.

CAN’T SAY YOU WERE NOT WARNED

I wrote this for Xpressbet last week: “Watch out for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Oh, sure, Baffert is not running the brilliant Life Is Good or the talented Concert Tour. Life Is Good is on the shelf while recuperating from a left-hind ankle issue that required surgery. Concert Tour, who worked a crisp four furlongs in :47.80 at Churchill on Monday, is being prepared for the Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on May 15 after not coming out of the Arkansas Derby to Baffert’s satisfaction. Concert Tour finished third as the 3-10 favorite in the Arkansas Derby, his first loss in four career starts.

“But even though Life is Good and Concert Tour are not participating, it’s not hard for me to envision Baffert still winning the Kentucky Derby with Medina Spirit, who finished second in the Santa Anita Derby as the 9-10 favorite.”

ANOTHER SANTA ANITA DERBY RUNNER-UP GETS ROSES

Medina Spirit was the 9-10 favorite in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby on April 3. He finished second, 4 1/4 lengths behind Rock Your World, who was racing on dirt for the first time following grass victories in his first two career starts.

It’s interesting that Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby more often with a 3-year-old who ran second in the Santa Anita Derby than those who won it.

Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Authentic and Medina Spirit finished second in the Santa Anita Derby for Baffert, then won the Kentucky Derby. Cavonnier, Indian Charlie, Dortmund, and Pioneerof the Nile were Santa Anita Derby winners for Baffert who then ran second or third in the Kentucky Derby.

Following Rock Your World’s sparkling Santa Anita Derby victory, he was the 9-2 second favorite in the Kentucky Derby. But his race last Saturday essentially was over just about as quickly as you can say his name.

Rock Your World, with Joel Rosario in the saddle, broke a step slowly, which many times can spell doom in a large field unless your name is Seattle Slew. And then in the opening strides, Rock Your World became the cheese in the sandwich when bumped hard from both sides (by Highly Motivated on the right and Essential Quality on the left). Rosario’s foot even momentarily slipped out of his left stirrup before he got his foot back in it.

In Rock Your World’s Santa Anita Derby victory, he set the pace. But he never came close to the front end in the Kentucky Derby after the adversity he encountered at the outset. Instead of setting or forcing the pace, Rock Your World found himself 10th through the early stages. He would finish 17th.

Medina Spirit won by a half-length. He completed 1 1/4 miles in 2:01.02. Mandaloun ran second. Hot Rod Charlie finished third, a half-length behind Medina Spirit. Essential Quality ended up fourth while losing for the first time in six career starts.

Brad Cox trains Mandaloun and Essential Quality. While Cox understandably was disappointed that neither colt won, he was pleased that they ran as well as they did.

“They went swift up front,” Cox said. “You can’t take anything away from the winner. He did all the dirty work [early] and kept on rolling. Listen, he ran a big race. He ran huge.”

Cox said he respects Medina Spirit, calling it a “huge, huge performance” on his part to “lay down those fractions and keep going.”

When Cox was asked if he believed that Essential Quality might have been the best horse in the race because of his wide trip, the trainer was quick to respond.

“I do,” Cox said. “I think he was the best horse. People can say what they want, but he was beaten a length and ran 68 feet further than the winner [according to Trakus].”

Some say Essential Quality, who moved up to loom boldly approaching the top of the long Churchill stretch, had every chance to run down Medina Spirit in the lane. And that is true. Nevertheless, it’s awfully difficult for a horse to run 68 feet (approximately seven to eight lengths) farther than someone and still beat them.

I’m guessing that Essential Quality will be the Kentucky Derby starter who quite possibly will emerge from the race with the best Thoro-Graph number. When it comes to Thoro-Graph, a lower number is better than a higher one. This is the opposite of Beyer Speed Figures.

Thoro-Graph takes many more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”

Medina Spirit received a career-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure for his Kentucky Derby win. It was his first triple-digit Beyer. His previous top figure had been a 99 when he ran second to Life Is Good in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes on Jan. 2.

Authentic, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner for Baffert, won the Sham (a race named after the 1973 Santa Anita Derby winner and runner-up to the great Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness).

Below are the Beyers for Kentucky Derby winners going back to 1989 (the figures prior to 2020 are listed in the American Racing Manual, which is now digital only):

2021 Medina Spirit (102)
2020 Authentic (105)
2019 Country House (99)+
2018 Justify (103)
2017 Always Dreaming (102)
2016 Nyquist (103)
2015 American Pharoah (105)
2014 California Chrome (97)
2013 Orb (104)
2012 I’ll Have Another (101)
2011 Animal Kingdom (103)
2010 Super Saver (104)
2009 Mine That Bird (105)
2008 Big Brown (109)
2007 Street Sense (110)
2006 Barbaro (111)
2005 Giacomo (100)
2004 Smarty Jones (107)
2003 Funny Cide (109)
2002 War Emblem (114)
2001 Monarchos (116)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (108)
1999 Charismatic (108)
1998 Real Quiet (107)
1997 Silver Charm (115)
1996 Grindstone (112)
1995 Thunder Gulch (108)
1994 Go for Gin (112)
1993 Sea Hero (105)
1992 Lil E. Tee (107)
1991 Strike the Gold*
1990 Unbridled*
1989 Sunday Silence (102)

+Country House finished second but was placed first through the disqualification of Maximum Security

*No Beyer Speed Figure listed

FRACTIONAL TIMES FOR THIS YEAR’S DERBY

Medina Spirit recorded fractional times of :23.09, :46.70, 1:11.20 and 1:35.98 en route to his Kentucky Derby triumph.

Below is a comparison of the time for each quarter-mile posted by Medina Spirit in this year’s Kentucky Derby and Authentic in the 2020 renewal:

Medina Spirit
:23.09, :23.61, :24.51, :24.77 and :25.04

Authentic
:23.20, :23.49, :23.82, :24.79 and :25.59

ANOTHER DERBY FOR JOHNNY V.

As was the case last year when John Velazquez won the Kentucky Derby aboard Authentic for Baffert, the trainer with the distinctive white hair raved about the Hall of Famer’s ride astride Medina Spirit last Saturday.

For Velazquez, this was his fourth Kentucky Derby victory. He previously had won it with Animal Kingdom in 2011, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Authentic last year.

Velazquez now is tied with Bill Shoemaker for the second-most Kentucky Derby wins. The record of five is shared by Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartack.

Johnny V. became the eighth jockey to win the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks in the same year. He guided Malathaat to a neck victory in Friday’s Grade I Oaks as the 5-2 favorite. The Kentucky-bred Curlin filly, trained by Todd Pletcher, now is five for five.

This was the sixth Kentucky Derby win for Velazquez’s agent, Ron Anderson, one of the best of all time. Prior to this year, Anderson’s client won this race with Thunder Gulch (Gary Stevens in 1995), Silver Charm (Gary Stevens in 1997), Charismatic (Chris Antley in 1999), Orb (Joel Rosario in 2013) and Authentic (John Velazquez in 2020).

By the way, Daily Racing Form’s David Grening came up with a good tidbit.

“Exactly six years to the day that John Velazquez won the Kentucky Derby on Medina Spirit, he won the Grade II Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs aboard Protonico, the sire of Medina Spirit,” Grening wrote. “It was the only time Velazquez rode Protonico, who was trained by Todd Pletcher.”

STRENGTH IN CALIFORNIA

Seven of the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners have been based in California (I’ll Have Another in 2012, California Chrome in 2014, American Pharoah in 2015, Nyquist in 2016, Justify in 2017, Authentic in 2020 and Medina Spirit in 2021).

DERBY FINISH HAS SIMILARITY TO LEWIS STAKES

Baffert said Medina Spirit’s Kentucky Derby victory reminded him of how the colt had won Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30 by showing so much heart in the stretch.

In the 1 1/16-mile Lewis, Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie finished 1-3 at the end of a three-way stretch battle with Roman Centurian. Roman Centurian came in second.

In the Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie again finished 1-3. This time it was Mandaloun who ran second.

CONGRATULATIONS TO ANDY BEYER

Medina Spirit officially carried 126 pounds in the Kentucky Derby. In a way, though, he packed considerably more weight than 126. That’s because he was Andy Beyer’s top pick to win the race.

In terms of picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont, Beyer’s record has been dreadful. Considering I have mentioned that from time to time, I think it’s only fair that I congratulate Beyer for picking the Kentucky Derby winner this year.

Beyer himself admits that his record in this regard is woeful. He even recently said, with a chuckle, that it might be another 20 years before he picks the winner of the Kentucky Derby again.

WHERE HAVE THE 99-1 LONGSHOTS GONE?

Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee pointed out recently that “horses sent off in the Kentucky Derby at 99-1 or higher have seemingly become extinct despite an expansion from 14 to 20 betting interests in 2001 -- which also happened to be the last time any horse was sent away at triple-digit odds. Startact was 10th at 102-1 and Arctic Boy was 12th at 101-1 behind the victorious Monarchos that year.”

Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia listed six horses at 50-1 on his Kentucky Derby morning line this year: Brooklyn Strong, Helium, Hidden Stash, Like the King, Keepmeinmind and Sainthood.

McGee also listed five of those horses at 50-1 in his odds for the DRF. McGee had Helium at 30-1.

While Battaglia and McGee had a plethora of horses at 50-1, nobody in this year’s Kentucky Derby started at 50-1 or higher, though one of the starters did come close to 50-1. Keepmeinmind was sent off at 49-1 (and actually ran a sneaky-good race in that he rallied to finish seventh after being 19th for the first six furlongs).

ZERO STRIKES FOR MEDINA SPIRIT

Medina Spirit had zero strikes in my Derby Strikes System (DSS).

I came up with the DSS years ago to try and determine a horse’s chances to win the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May from both tactical and historical perspectives. The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the categories, the horse gets a strike. The eight categories are listed at the end of this column/blog/article.

A number of the categories in the DSS are associated with the Kentucky Derby being run in May. Consequently, when the race was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 last year due to the pandemic, it rendered the DSS unworkable.

Because the Kentucky Derby again was run on the first Saturday in May this year, the DSS returned.

Since 1973 and again excluding 2020 when the race was run in September, now 40 out of the 48 Kentucky Derby winners have had zero strikes or one strike, while seven have had two strikes and only one has had more than two strikes.

The seven Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were:

Cannonade (1974) Categories 3 and 4
Ferdinand (1986) Categories 2 and 4
Sea Hero (1993) Categories 3 and 5
Funny Cide (2003) Categories 2 and 8
Giacomo (2015) Categories 2 and 5
Justify (2018) Categories 1 and 8
Country House (2019) Categories 2 and 3

The only Kentucky Derby winner with more than two strikes was:

Mine That Bird (2009) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 8

In the 2019 Kentucky Derby, Maximum Security had zero strikes and finished first by 1 1/4 lengths. However, the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th when ruling that he had committed a foul by veering out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy.

WINNER WAS LEADING A FURLONG FROM FINISH

Thanks to the DSS, I have come to the conclusion that it behooves one to try and figure out who appears to have a good chance of being first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby.

With a furlong left to run last Saturday, Medina Spirit led by a head. Mandaloun was second.

That now means 53 of the last 56 winners of the Kentucky Derby were either first or second at that point.

Interestingly, Medina Spirit, Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality were 1-2-3-4 in that order a quarter of a mile from the finish and again a furlong from the finish. And they were 1-2-3-4 in that same order at the finish.

NUMBER OF STRIKES FOR DERBY WINNERS SINCE 1973

These are the number of strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 (again, the eight categories in the Derby Strikes System are listed at the end of this column/blog/article):

2021 Medina Spirit (0 strikes)
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3*
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)

*Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first, disqualified and placed 17th

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

Mystic Guide, who won the Dubai World Cup in March for trainer Michael Stidham, continues to hold the top position in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll this week.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 350 Mystic Guide (31)
2. 322 Charlatan 6)
3. 199 Monomoy Girl
4. 199 Colonel Liam
5. 184 Knicks Go
6. 161 Gamine
7. 141 Letruska
8. 133 Maxfield (1)
9. 84 Shedaresthedevil
10. 55 Domestic Spending

As expected, after winning last Saturday’s 144th running of the Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit takes over the top spot in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll. He ranked No. 7 last week.

Undefeated Kentucky Oaks winner Malathaat debuts on the Top 10 this week at No. 5. According to Pletcher, two races under consideration for Malathaat’s next start are the Grade I Belmont Stakes on June 19 and Grade II Mother Goose Stakes on June 26. Pletcher has won the Belmont with a filly, having done so in 2007 with Rags to Riches.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 374 Medina Spirit (34)
2. 315 Essential Quality (2)
3. 284 Mandaloun
4. 266 Hot Rod Charlie
5. 179 Malathaat (1)
6. 95 Concert Tour
7. 94 Life Is Good (1)
8. 82 Jackie’s Warrior
9. 69 Rock Your World
10. 65 Midnight Bourbon

MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES

What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:

1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)

2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)

3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was either first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 53 of the last 56 Kentucky Derby winners through 2021 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only three Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Animal Kingdom, third with a furlong remaining in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; and Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)

5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)

6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)

7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Since 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 1 for 65 in the Kentucky Derby through 2021. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)

8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

---

Charles Town - Race #2

#6 Mackenzie's Music	Debuter isn't meeting much at first asking, and she has turned in some solid works along the way in advance of this. Think she can be tough first out.
#4 Fiona Bella	She has some appeal for all the same reasons the top choice does, as she won't need to be a star to score right out of the box.
#3 My Pretty Eyes	She's capable among those who have experience, but she's making her 10th career start and is getting a bit short on excuses.
Race Summary	Mackenzie's Music and Fiona Bella are debuting in a very soft spot for the level, but the former might offer a slightly better price on the board. Guessing a fresh face lands this.

Charles Town - Race #7

#6 Banner Man	He goes for the Runco barn off the claim after the former connections had him in for $15,000 off the MSW win. Always love an aggressive move like this running out of a good barn.
#7 The Illusionist	He didn't stay when sent two turns last out, but he was a pretty nice winner at this trip in his career debut. He brings a sharp work with him and has plenty of bounce-back potential.
#9 Rock Break	He's facing winners for the first time, but his form has been trending in the right direction, and he's not landing in the toughest spot for the level here.
Race Summary	Banner Man would be appealing at anything like the 5/1 ML offering. He has been bringing pretty consistent efforts, and he's a threat for the top spot if the new barn moves him up at all.

Charles Town - Race #8

#5 Anchor Up	He was way off the splits in that debut in the mud, but he showed some enthusiasm late and can probably move forward with that effort under his belt.
#7 Ahmas	He seems likely enough to settle and finish in a spot where a few of them are almost sure to be going the wrong way late. I wouldn't be too excited about signing up for the 2/1 ML price.
#8 Political Decision	He has been moving in the right direction through three career races, and that form would make him tough if he has any kind of additional move forward in him today.
Race Summary	Anchor Up has some price appeal after running on late in the debut, and maybe she gets dry land to work with tonight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

---

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#6 SHANE ADAM	Been chasing fast fractions, can make better use of his speed in here.
#4 ATTACHE HANOVER	Rallied for pair of seconds with four days between starts.
#5 UNDERTAKER	Classy 9-year-old steps up off wire-to-wire victory.
Race Summary	Shane Adam chased the 3-1 winner through a :56.2 middle half off a month layoff and faded after chasing an odds-on, repeat winner two starts ago. He should be forwardly placed a long way while seeking his first win this year. Play 6-4 and 6-5 exactas.

The Meadows - Race #2

#7 YANKEE SIS	Yet to recapture 2020 form but Northfield Park numbers translate well.
#1 HAVANA MOON	Dropped back to track winning fave in third after apparent bad step near half-mile mark.
#3 TOTHETOPANDOVER	Appeared ready to launch mid-turn bid when mishap occurred.
Race Summary	Have to take a stand against 6-5 morning-line favorite SK's Dream, who stayed flat in a 5-horse qualifier but had a horrible breaking habit prior. If he wins, he wins; if he doesn't, it could produce some big payouts. Play a 1-3-7 exacta box.

Yonkers - Race #9

#4 JOSSIE JAMES A	Must stay in closer contact early, worth a price shot.
#2 FEELIN RED HOT	Carried her speed at this level to 40th victory for Team Burke.
#7 WALTZWITHSIERRA A	Encouraging qualifier to U.S. debut, price attached.
Race Summary	Jossie James A rallied widest and fastest after she went off stride at the break two starts back, then raced very headstrong into the first turn and never threatened from an outer post last week. She shows plenty of speed on her form and looms an upset possibility on her best. Play a 2-4-7 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

---

Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#1 Mrs. Maisel	Was up in time at this level vs. N3L company last out and can secure a good position from the start; steps up but can be solid if she runs back to her last one.
#2 Miss Miami	Has been at much higher levels and this class drop should put her into contention.
#3 Trevess	Was an even third last time out, has good speed and could be tough to catch.
Race Summary	Mrs. Maisel has the tactical speed to be in the mix from the start and can be tough late.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7

#2 La Rusia	Was claimed in her last two and has been competitive at this level; will probably get a good pace to chase and should be one to hold off.
#1 Mercy Mercy	Didn't fire last out but ran on well and finished fourth two races back; has been vs. better and can come to life here.
#3 Miss Ghislaine	Was an easy winner two back and her first non-maiden test was too tough for her; drops to a level that can make her a big player.
Race Summary	La Rusia has a good pace in front of her today and can deliver with a solid late run; one to hold off.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#3 Cheval Dore	Comes off his best effort in three career starts when he finished third; can make a late run.
#2 Unlonely	Was second in his last two and has been on the board in three of his last four; has the speed to be in mix throughout.
#8 Nketiah	Set the pace for a half-mile and backed up in his only start, which came against maiden special weights at Tampa Bay.
Race Summary	Cheval Dore showed late interest last out and gets a rapid pace in from of him; can bring the late heat.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

901MILWAUKEE -902 PHILADELPHIA
MILWAUKEE is 14-28 SU (-17.6 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

903NY METS -904 ST LOUIS
NY METS are 23-35 SU (-15.5 Units) in road games in the first half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

905ATLANTA -906 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 81-56 SU (19.4 Units) when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.

907ARIZONA -908 MIAMI
ARIZONA is 57-33 SU (23.3 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the last 3 seasons.

909HOUSTON -910 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 14-2 SU (14.1 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.

911DETROIT -912 BOSTON
DETROIT is 3-13 SU (-14.2 Units) vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the current season.

913TEXAS -914 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 3-14 SU (-11.7 Units) vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the current season.

915CLEVELAND -916 KANSAS CITY
CLEVELAND is 18-5 SU (12.9 Units) vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

917TORONTO -918 OAKLAND
TORONTO is 8-17 SU (-15.3 Units) in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

919TAMPA BAY -920 LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 248-225 SU (0.5 Units) in home games when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1996.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, May 6

NL games
Milwaukee (17-14) @ Philadelphia (16-15)
— Woodruff is 2-0, 1.16 in his last five starts.
— Brewers are 5-1 in his starts
— under 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-2
— He is 2-0, 0.50 in three starts vs Philly.

— Brewers lost their last four games.
— Milwaukee won seven of last 11 road games.
— under 10-5 on road.
— scored run in first inning: 9-31
— record in first 5 innings: 13-13-5

— Wheeler is 1-0, 3.92 in his last three starts.
— Phillies are 2-4 in his starts
— over 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3-1
— He is 1-1, 2.90 in five starts vs Milwaukee.

— Phillies are 7-5 in their last 12 games.
— Phillies are 12-6 at home.
— over 11-4 last 15 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 12-31
— record in first 5 innings: 11-12-8

Mets (12-13) @ St Louis (18-13)
— Walker is 1-1, 3.33 in five starts.
— Mets are 4-1 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 4-1
— He is 0-1, 3.50 in three starts vs St Louis.

— Mets are 6-10 in their last 16 games.
— Mets are 6-9 on the road.
— Under 7-4-1 last dozen games.
— scored run in first inning: 5-25
— record in first 5 innings: 11-12-2

— Gant is 2-0, 0.82 in his last two starts.
— Cardinals are 3-2 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He is 3-0, 0.87 in seven games (2 starts, 20.2 IP) vs New York.

— Cardinals won 10 of their last 13 games.
— St Louis is 7-3 in its last ten home games.
— Under 6-2-1 last nine home games.
— scored run in first inning: 10-31
— record in first 5 innings: 15-11-5

Arizona (15-15) @ Miami (13-16)
— Bumgarner is 3-0, 1.06 in his last three starts.
— Arizona is 3-3 in his starts
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 3-6
— record in first 5 innings: 4-2
— He is 2-4, 4.47 in ten starts vs Miami.

— Arizona won 10 of its last 15 games.
— Arizona is 6-3 in its last nine road games.
— over 10-3-1 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 5-30
— record in first 5 innings: 15-14-1

— Lopez is 0-1, 0.95 in his last three starts.
— Miami is 2-4 in his starts.
— under 2-2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-3
— He allowed 3 runs in six IP, in his one start vs Arizona.

— Marlins lost nine of their last 15 games.
— Miami is 6-7 at home.
— under 5-3-2 last ten home games
— scored run in first inning: 9-29
— record in first 5 innings: 11-12-6

Atlanta (14-16) @ Washington (12-14)
— Smyly is 0-2, 9.95 in four starts.
— Braves are 0-4 in his starts.
— over 4-0 in his starts
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2-2
— He is 0-0, 2.57 in three games (2 starts) vs Washington.

— Braves lost four of their last six games.
— Atlanta is 7-9 on the road.
— Under is 3-0 in their last three games.
— scored run in first inning: 10-30
— record in first 5 innings: 13-12-5

— Lester blanked Miami for five IP (70 PT) in his first ‘21 start.
— Washington is 1-0 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
— He is 7-2, 2.30 in 11 starts vs Atlanta.

— Washington won four of its last six games.
— Nationals won five of their last seven home games.
— under 9-2 last 11 home games
— scored run in first inning: 7-26
— record in first 5 innings: 7-12-7

AL games
Houston (15-15) @ Bronx (16-14)
— McCullers is 1-0, 1.38 in last two starts.
— Astros are 2-3 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He is 2-0, 2.59 in four starts vs New York

— Astros lost their last three games.
— Astros are 4-8 in last 12 road games.
— over 3-2 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 8-30
— record in first 5 innings: 13-11-6

— Former Astro Cole is 4-1, 1.43 in six starts.
— New York is 4-2 in his starts.
— over 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 5-0-1
— He gave up five runs in five IP, in his one start vs Houston.

— New York won 11 of its last 15 games.
— New York is 7-1 in its last eight home games.
— under 11-5 last 16 games
— scored run in first inning: 4-30
— record in first 5 innings: 14-12-4

Detroit (9-22) @ Boston (18-13)
— Turnbull is 1-2, 4.50 in three starts.
— Detroit is 1-2 in his starts.
— over 2-1 in his starts
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He threw five shutout innings, in his one start vs Boston.

— Detroit lost 16 of its last 19 games.
— Detroit is 5-13 on the road.
— under 12-6 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 2-18 on road
— record in first 5 innings: 3-14-1 on road

— Eovaldi is 4-1, 3.99 in his last five starts.
— Red Sox are 4-2 in his starts.
— under 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 4-1-1
— He is 2-0, 1.89 in three starts vs Detroit.

— Boston lost four of its last six games.
— Red Sox won three of last five home games.
— under six of last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 8-31
— record in first 5 innings: 14-11-6

Texas (15-17) @ Minnesota (11-18)
— Lyles is 0-2, 10.66 in his last three starts.
— Rangers are 3-3 in his starts.
— over 4-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3
— He gave up 3 runs in 6.1 IP, in his one start vs Minnesota.

— Texas won five of its last seven games.
— Texas is 8-8 on road.
— over 7-3 last ten road games.
— scored run in first inning: 8-32
— record in first 5 innings: 12-16-4

— Pineda is 2-1, 2.96 in five starts.
— Twins are 3-2 in his starts.
— over 2-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-1
— He 2-4, 5.09 in eight starts vs Texas.

— Twins lost 16 of their last 22 games.
— Minnesota is 6-10 at home.
— over 7-1 last eight games
— scores run in first inning: 11-29
— record in first 5 innings: 12-11-6

Cleveland (16-13) @ Kansas City (16-13)
— McKenzie is 0-1, 7.20 in four starts.
— Indians are 1-3 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He is 1-0, 2.45 in three games (2 starts) vs KC.

— Cleveland won eight of its last ten games.
— Indians are 9-7 on the road.
— over 11-3-1 last 15 games
— scores run in first inning: 6-29
— record in first 5 innings: 8-17-4

— Duffy is 4-1, 1.20 in his first five starts.
— Royals are 4-1 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 4-1
— He is 5-12, 4.82 in 24 games (20 starts) vs Cleveland.

— Royals lost five of their last six games.
— Royals are 8-8 at home.
— last seven games went over
— scores run in first inning: 5-29
— record in first 5 innings: 14-10-5

Tampa Bay (17-15) @ Angels (13-16)
— Fleming is 1-2, 2.18 in four games (20.2 IP).
— They may/may not use an opener here.
— Rays are 1-2 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against the Angels.

— Tampa Bay is 6-8 in its last 14 games.
— Rays are 8-1 in last nine road games.
— eight of last 12 games stayed under
— scored run in first inning: 9-32
— record in first 5 innings: 12-12-8

— Heaney is 1-1, 2.95 in his last four starts.
— Angels are 2-3 in his starts.
— over 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2
— He is 0-3, 4.87 in four starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Halos lost five of last six games overall.
— Angels are 7-6 at home.
— over 9-5 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 8-29
— record in first 5 innings: 13-14-2

Toronto (15-14) @ Oakland (19-13)
— Ryu is 1-2, 2.93 in five starts.
— Blue Jays are 3-2 in his starts.
— under 4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He threw six shutout innings in his one start vs Oakland

— Toronto won seven of its last 11 games.
— Toronto lost three of last five road games.
— over 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 9-28
— record in first 5 innings: 11-14-4

— Fiers allowed three runs in six IP (83 PT) in his first ‘21 start.
— A’s are 0-1 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1
— He is 1-4, 4.22 in nine games (8 starts) vs Toronto.

— A’s are 6-6 in their last 12 games.
— Oakland won 11 of its last 14 home games.
— Under is 12-7 in their last 19 games.
— scored run in first inning: 8-32
— record in first 5 innings: 13-12-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, May 6

Trend Report

Houston @ NY Yankees
Houston
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Milwaukee @ Philadelphia
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Milwaukee is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games

Detroit @ Boston
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit

Texas @ Minnesota
Texas
Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

NY Mets @ St. Louis
NY Mets
NY Mets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games
St. Louis
St. Louis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
St. Louis is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games

Cleveland @ Kansas City
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games
Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games

Toronto @ Oakland
Toronto
Toronto is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oakland
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Atlanta @ Washington
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

Arizona @ Miami
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Miami
Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

Tampa Bay @ LA Angels
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 7 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends for Thursday May 6
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Arizona at Miami (6:40 p.m. ET)

-- The Marlins are 7-0 SU since Jul 15, 2018 past the first game of a series at home after they shut out their opponent last game

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Detroit at Boston (1:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Tigers are 0-16 SU since Aug 29, 2017 as a road dog coming off a one run road win.

OU Play Trend of the Day
Matchup: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (1:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Brewers are 0-13 OU (-2.69 ppg) since Sep 02, 2017 when Brandon Woodruff starts when the bullpen allowed more runs than he did in his last start.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Cleveland at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Royals are 9-0 SU since Jun 07, 2014 when Danny Duffy starts as a home favorite when he had a WHIP of less than 1.00 in his last start and the Royals won.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

533CHICAGO -534 CHARLOTTE
CHICAGO is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games in the current season.

535BROOKLYN -536 DALLAS
BROOKLYN is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games in the current season.

537WASHINGTON -538 TORONTO
Nick Nurse is 57-35 ATS (18.5 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game - 2nd half of the season (Coach of TORONTO)

537WASHINGTON -538 TORONTO
TORONTO is 57-35 ATS (18.5 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game - 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

539MEMPHIS -540 DETROIT
DETROIT is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game - 2nd half of the season in the current season.

541ATLANTA -542 INDIANA
INDIANA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season in the current season.

543OKLAHOMA CITY -544 GOLDEN STATE
OKLAHOMA CITY is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game - 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

545LA LAKERS -546 LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, May 6

Chicago @ Charlotte
Bulls (26-39)
— Chicago lost 11 of its last 15 games SU.
— Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
— Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.

Hornets (32-33)
— Charlotte lost three of its last five games SU.
— Hornets are 4-2 ATS in their last six home games.
— Under is 22-8 in Charlotte’s last 30 games.

— Chicago won this year’s meetings, by 13-17 points.
— Bulls are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Charlotte.
— Under is 3-1 in last four series games.

Brooklyn @ Dallas
Nets (43-23)
— Brooklyn is 7-7 in its last 14 games SU.
— Nets are 3-4 ATS in last seven road games.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight Brooklyn games.

Mavericks (37-28)
— Mavericks won seven of their last nine games.
— Mavericks are 2-7 ATS in last nine home games.
— Over is 8-4 in last 12 Dallas games.

— Mavericks won three of last four series games.
— Nets are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Dallas.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Washington @ Toronto
Wizards (30-36)
— Wizards won 12 of last 17 games SU (14-3 ATS).
— Wizards are 9-1 ATS in last ten road games.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven road games

Raptors (27-39)
— Toronto lost five of its last seven games.
— Raptors are 5-1 ATS in last six home games.
— Under is 4-0 in their last four home games.

— Toronto won last ten series games.
— Wizards are 3-1 ATS in last four road series games.
— Over is 7-1 in last eight series games.

Memphis @ Detroit
Grizzlies (33-32)
— Memphis lost four of its last six games SU.
— Grizzlies are 12-5 ATS in last 17 road games.
— Over is 9-3 in last 12 Memphis road games.

Pistons (19-47)
— Detroit lost seven of its last eight games
— Pistons are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine home games.
— Under is 5-2 in Detroit’s last seven games.

— Memphis won last three series games.
— Grizzlies covered 8 of last 10 series games.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.

Atlanta @ Indiana
Hawks (37-30)
— Hawks won/covered their last three games.
— Hawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.

Pacers (30-35)
— Indiana lost four of its last five games SU.
— You’re reading ***************.com
— Pacers are 2-15 ATS in their last 17 home games.
— Over is 6-2 in Indiana’s last eight games.

— Pacers won seven of last nine series games.
— Hawks are 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Indiana.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight series games.

Oklahoma City @ Golden State
Thunder (21-45)
— Thunder lost 21 of its last 23 games- they lost last two, by 3-4 points.
— OKC is 3-1 ATS in their last four road games.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight road games.

Warriors (33-33)
— Golden State lost three of its last five games SU.
— Warriors are 5-3 ATS in last eight home games.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.

— OKC won four of last six series games.
— Thunder is 3-2 ATS in last five trips to the Bay Area.
— Under is 8-2 in last ten series games.

LA Clippers vs LA Lakers
Clippers (44-22)
— Clippers lost three of their last four games, after a 17-3 run.
— Clippers are 6-3 ATS in last games at Staples.
— Nine of last ten Clipper games stayed under the total.

Lakers (37-28)
— Lakers lost six of their last eight games.
— Lakers are 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games at Staples.
— Under is 4-1 in their five games at Staples.

— Clippers won four of last six series games.
— Underdogs covered 7 of last 8 series games.
— Under is 5-1 in last six series games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, May 6

Trend Report

Chicago @ Charlotte
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Chicago

Brooklyn @ Dallas
Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games
Dallas
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Washington @ Toronto
Washington
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington

Memphis @ Detroit
Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Memphis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games

Atlanta @ Indiana
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games

Oklahoma City @ Golden State
Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oklahoma City's last 12 games when playing Golden State
Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Golden State's last 12 games when playing Oklahoma City

LA Lakers @ LA Clippers
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Lakers's last 14 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
LA Clippers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

21NEW JERSEY -22 NY ISLANDERS
NY ISLANDERS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread in the current season.

23NY RANGERS -24 BOSTON
BOSTON is 247-188 ATS (-70.8 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1996.

25BUFFALO -26 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite in the current season.

27CHICAGO -28 CAROLINA
CHICAGO is 0-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in road games against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the current season.

81MONTREAL -82 TORONTO
MONTREAL is 19-25 ATS (-15.7 Units) against mistake free teams - opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the current season.

83VANCOUVER -84 EDMONTON
EDMONTON is 25-5 ATS (19 Units) against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Thursday, May 6

Trend Report

NY Rangers @ Boston
NY Rangers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Rangers's last 8 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Rangers's last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

New Jersey @ NY Islanders
New Jersey
New Jersey is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing NY Islanders
NY Islanders
NY Islanders is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Jersey
NY Islanders is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against New Jersey

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Chicago @ Carolina
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing Carolina
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Montreal @ Toronto
Montreal
Montreal is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games on the road
Toronto
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Vancouver @ Edmonton
Vancouver
Vancouver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Vancouver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Edmonton
Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vancouver
Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

May 06 '21, 1:30 PM in 24m
MLB | Mets vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +102 at Draft Kings

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: St. Louis Cardinals +102
I like the value we are getting on the St. Louis Cardinals as home underdogs to the New York Mets today. The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last seven games overall and 10-3 in their last 13 games dating back further. They are flying under the radar right now.
John Gant is off to a tremendous start for the Cardinals this season, going 2-2 with a 2.16 ERA in five starts, including 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA in his last three. Gant is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two career starts against the Mets as well. He'll be opposed by Taijuan Walker, who has struggled in his two road starts this season, going 0-1 with a 5.58 ERA.
The Mets are 1-5 in their last six games following a win. New York is 3-8 in its last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Cardinals are 7-2 in the last nine meetings. The Mets are 20-42 in their last 62 meetings in St. Louis. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.