Tuesday 5/11/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 06:18 AM

Al Cimaglia: Scioto Downs Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 11, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Scioto Downs has 14 races ready to roll with the 0.50 Pick 5 sequence starting in Race 5. It has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout. My focus will be on the 0.50 Late Pick 4 sequence which begins in Race 10.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

1-Mapleleafs Design (7-1)-Appears to do best racing on the point and should not have a problem getting there with this post draw. Has faced stakes company and should be able to compete here at a square price.
4-Jett (6/5)-Paced the back half in 56.2 in the 1st start at ScD and it was also the 1st time using Lasix. Looking for more improvement, the price will be short and should be a main threat.
5-Cold Decked (5/2)-Faces easier and it would be difficult to leave out but hasn't been able to seal the deal. Might like to follow more than lead but has had only 4 career starts.

Race 11

2-American Sweet Pea (9/2)-Makes the 1st start for new barn, comes off a decent effort and benefitted from a DQ to take top honors. Smith should work a good trip but may need to be leading coming into the lane to cash the top check.
6-Barley Nation (5-1)-Noble steers as Sutton sticks with #7 and this gal has taken 2 pictures in 16 starts here. Could leave and might get a cozy trip to notch the 2nd win in 14 starts this year.
7-Dont Mach Mia (5-1)-Was facing better at MVR and has been stuck with the 10-hole in the last 2 starts. Sutton could leave and put this mare in play. Looks like a player but is 0-11 at ScD.

Race 12

3-Two Of Hardts (7/2)-Did win a couple of races at the Pomp and this will be the 3rd start in Ohio plus the 3rd different track. Fits with this crew and should be in the mix from start to finish.
4-Call Him Rocky (9/5)-Drew off by over 9 lengths in gate to wire fashion on 5-4. Deserves the morning line favoritism but this probably won't be as easy as last time.
5-Sidekick (7-1)-Broke in 1st start of the year at MVR and that hasn't been an issue in the past. Did qualify nicely here on 5-4 and will take a swing for some value. Smith could get the pocket behind the morning line choice.

Race 13

3-Taco Tuesday (2-1)-Was used hard in last at Nfld and that was after breaking stride in the previous start. This will be the 1st time for Noble taking the lines and the 1st start at ScD. Looking for the new pilot to squeeze a bit more out of this 8-year-old and this is a beatable field.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,4,5/2,6,7/3,4,5/3
Total Bet =$13.50

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 06:20 AM

Monday Myths: Are Fewer Derby Horses Showing Up for Preakness?

May 10, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Not as many Kentucky Derby horses are willing to race in the Preakness as there once was.

Background:

You hear chatter in recent years about how the Derby, Preakness and Belmont need to be spaced out on the calendar, perhaps as much as a month apart, to better fit the modern training pattern of barns who demand 4-5 weeks between starts.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at how many horses have come out of the Derby to run back in the Preakness over the past 8 years. I also consulted some official racecharts of Preakness races from yesterday to see how it “once was.”

2013: 6 Derby horses came back to run in the Preakness.
2014: 3 Derby horses came back to run in the Preakness.
2015: 5 Derby horses came back to run in the Preakness.
2016: 3 Derby horses came back to run in the Preakness.
2017: 5 Derby horses came back to run in the Preakness.
2018: 4 Derby horses came back to run in the Preakness.
2019: 4 Derby horses came back to run in the Preakness.
2020: 4 Derby horses came back to run in the Preakness.

//

2000s: 3-5 Derby returnees were the norm except when 50-1 Giacomo won in 2005 and 10 Derby horses took a shot at Old Hilltop, and 8 re-matched in 2009 after 50-1 Derby winner Mine That Bird.
1990s: While 10 showed up in Charismatic’s 1999 repeat victory, 5-8 were the consistent norm for the 10-year run.
1980s: 5-8 Derby returnees were the consistent norm throughout the decade.
1970s: Secretariat ran against 2 Derby rivals, the same for Seattle Slew and Affirmed. In other years, 5-8 total Derby holdovers were the norm.

Overall Findings:

The number of Derby to Preakness starters in recent years has held consistent over the past 7 years. The decade of the 2000s began the downturn in number of returnees in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown after the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s were pretty similar in Derby alumni.

Bottom line:

Superstar horses over the decades have caused fewer to re-match at Pimlico on occasion, which makes sense. But it’s absolutely true in the numbers that the modern Preakness is drawing consistently fewer Derby returnees than past decades. But that number has been leveled off for two decades and does not appear to be making any continued down-trend.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, you can measure the records of Derby holdovers to new faces in the Preakness.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 06:22 AM

Black-Eyed Susan Day Post Draw Reaction

May 10, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Friday’s 14-race Black-Eyed Susan Day program was drawn today at Pimlico, host of Saturday’s 146th running of the Preakness Stakes. Six stakes races are on the Friday docket, led by 10 three-year-old fillies in the Grade 2 George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan (Race 13). The mile and one-eighth Black-Eyed Susan will be co-featured Friday along with the Grade 3 Pimlico Special (Race 12).

Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app and Xpressbet.com will enjoy up to a $10 money-back guarantee on every race Friday and Saturday at if their Pimlico win bet in any race finishes second or third. Tournament players Friday can play an $80 feeder contest into Saturday’s $1,500 live bankroll Preakness Tournament. Visit Xpressbet.com/tournaments for details and to sign up.

The Black-Eyed Susan field is topped by Bourbonette Oaks 1-2 finishers Adventuring (post 9) and Spiritz (post 3), as well as Santa Anita Oaks runner-up Beautiful Gift. Spiritz and Beautiful Gift are expected to be part of the early pace and the former certainly won’t the draw in that regard. Local Win & You’re In qualifier Miss Leslie will leave from post 7.

The Pimlico Special lured 11 runners over its traditional mile and three-sixteenths trip. Major graded stakes winners Modernist and Fearless drew alongside on the fence. Defending champion Harpers First Ride (post 7) represents Maryland’s home team.

Friday’s undercard also includes the Grade 3 Allaire duPont Distaff, Grade 3 Miss Preakness, The Very One Stakes and the Hilltop Stakes. First post Friday will be 11:30 am ET and feature a Black-Eyed Susan / Preakness two-day daily double wager as well as advance wagering on the Preakness.

The post position draw for Saturday’s Preakness will be held Tuesday at 4 pm ET.

Grade 3 Pimlico Special // Race 12 // 5:12 pm ET

1. Modernist (Junior Alvarado)
2. Fearless (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
3. Forewarned (Alexander Crispin)
4. Enforceable (Tyler Gaffalione)
5. Max Player (Ricardo Santana Jr.)
6. Prioritize (Joel Rosario)
7. Harpers First Ride (David Cohen)
8. Cordmaker (Victor Cassasco)
9. Treasure Trove (Luis Saez)
10. Alwaysmining (Sheldon Russell)
11. Last Judgment (Jose Ortiz)

Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes // Race 13 // 5:44 pm ET

1. Army Wife (Joel Rosario)
2. Willful Woman (Ricardo Santana Jr.)
3. Spiritz (Flavien Prat)
4. Forever Boss (Jose Ortiz)
5. Lady Traveler (Javier Castellano)
6. Iced Latte (Luis Saez)
7. Miss Leslie (J.D. Acosta)
8. The Grass is Blue (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
9. Adventuring (Florent Geroux)
10. Beautiful Gift (John Velazquez)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 06:24 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Parx Racing - Race #8

#4 Precious	She's a pretty reliable finishing type, and she may get just an honest enough pace to set things up for her late rally. She has been very sharp since adding blinkers and figures to be in the mix late with these.
#2 Crazy Bea	She's probably a little outrun early here on the cutback, and she has always done her best work on the lead. Can see a scenario in which she lands this, but a few things are going to have to go her way.
#5 Dilly Dilly Philly	She steps up after an impressive score off the claim last time out, and she draws well to hassle Crazy Bea in the early going. Respect her form, but her ceiling might be just a bit light compared to these.
Race Summary	Precious has a little bit of versatility and should be able to finish from off the splits here, and anything like her last few efforts might be good enough here.

Parx Racing - Race #9

#3 Exogen	The move back around one turn should work in her favor as she gets down in class for this one, and she has some positional pace that should keep her in a good spot throughout.
#8 Sense a Million	She's probably a little bit overbet here, but she does own some solid one-turn form, so the cutback isn't any real concern. She brings solid recent form and should be trying to finish late.
#1 Did I Stutter	She's got some pressing route pace while cutting back, but that type of style could leave her vulnerable to a tricky trip from the fence. She can win this.
Race Summary	Exogen figures for a really good trip while dropping out of stakes company, and ML favorite Sense a Million might take a bit too much cash here.

Parx Racing - Race #10

#5 Dalton	Sign me up if this guy is offering something like the 3/1 ML price at post time. The layoff is a bit of a concern, but the form seems better than these, and getting out of stakes company gives her a right to be tough.
#4 Silent Service	He has given away ground late in both starts with winners, but the addition of blinkers today might get him to take a step forward -- something he'll need to handle the top choice.
#8 Exculpatory	He was bet as the chalk when posting a nice win from off the pace in the debut run. He'll likely settle and finish again with these and will hope for a pace battle of some kind to set things up.
Race Summary	Dalton will need to fire fresh, but the barn typically does good work off the layoff, and his pre-layoff form would make him very tough with these while dropping out of a pair of good stakes tries.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 06:33 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #2

#8 OFF THE RECORD	Second to 1-to-5 winner in Kindergarten Stakes, good qualifier for return.
#4 WICKED WAYS	Romped to first win in 15 starts on 5/8-mile oval out of town.
#1 IDEAL HANNAH	Good first gear, draws rail, doesn't shy from photo-finish camera.
Race Summary	Off The Record compiled an 8/1-3-3 during a $73k freshman season. He lands in an ideal spot to begin his 3-year-old season but has the outside post to contend with. Play 8-1 and 8-4 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #10

#9 BACKSEAT JOKER	Came back running, taken to repeat despite second-tier assignment.
#5 LONG LEGGED JOHN	Trapped for 3/4s of a mile, darted to rail with run, broke stride.
#1 ROLAND ON THE RIVER	Has speed, rail and Merriman in first start for new barn.
Race Summary	Backseat Joker, a steady performer in fall New York Sire Stakes action, returned from an 8-month layoff and rallied furiously in the stretch to win at odds-on. He can handle the class rise and the second-tier starting spot with Wrenn in the bike. Long Legged John is worth a long look, too, at a better price. He made what looked like a winning stretch move but went off stride. Play a 9-1, 9-5 and 5-9 exactas, in addition to a 5, 9/1, 5, 9/ALL trifecta.

Northfield Park - Race #14

#9 IMPRESSIVE COWBOY	Loomed 3-wide, couldn't reach, price offsets bad starting spot.
#6 VINTAGE GRAND	Buried lesser, could return quick claim dividend.
#5 IN COMMANDO	Held on for 40th career victory, will be underlay.
Race Summary	Impressive Cowboy swung 3-wide around cover on the final turn and finished a willing third behind the favorites. He won at this level three back and will retain good betting value from a second-tier starting spot. Play a 6,9 with 5,6,9 exacta.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 09:33 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 7	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE(Races 7-8)
Claiming $10,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $17,600 • Post: 3:52P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000, IF FOR $8,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LUNE LAKE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LUNE LAKE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ra nks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	LUNE LAKE	6/5	5/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	LUNE LAKE	4	6/5	Front-runner	80	77	75.8	68.0	65.5
2	PRANK CALL	2	6/1	Stalker	76	67	66.8	64.6	59.1
1	MA MEATLOAF	1	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	80	74	63.4	65.8	58.8
6	EYE'S ON YOU	6	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	80	65	52.0	58.6	52.6
5	OFFLEE IRISH	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	78	46.4	67.4	61.4
3	KATERI EMPIRE	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	66	51.3	50.8	39.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 10:05 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 5	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) /Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 5-6) ($1 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) (.50 min.)
Trial • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 78 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:40P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD QUARTER HORSE FOALS OF 2019 WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE OLD SOUTH FUTURITY. $300 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY TO TRIALS. LATE PAYMENT: $2,000 TO ENTER THE TRIALS PRIOR TO TIME OF ENTRIES CLOSING. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. (ALL FINAL PAYMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER PRIOR TO 10:30 A.M. THE DAY OF ENTRY TO TRIALS. CASH OR CASHIER CHECK ONLY!).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MR SPUD: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post positio n next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating.
5	MR SPUD	1/1	4/5

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TF TRES VESES LOCA	1	15/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	MR SPUD	5	1/1	Fast	82	75	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	APOLLITICALVALENTINA	6	12/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	DOLLS REGAL PRIZE	9	15/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: CORONA THREE CHICKS (10/1) [Jockey: Aquino Jasiel - Trainer: Chavez Ruben], IS SEPERATE FLYER (20/1) [Jockey: Luna Ubaldo - Trainer: Lopez Pedro A], MORNIN TRAIN (7/2) [Jockey: Rodriguez Jose Ariel - Trainer: Hernandez Jaime],

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 10:06 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 62

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 DIXIELAND MUSIC 3/1
# 5 SILKY'S DANCE 3/1
# 1 DIABLO CAT 5/2

DIXIELAND MUSIC is my choice. This pick will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. He looks solid in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. This field is much less demanding than the last one he faced. SILKY'S DANCE - Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last contest. Has performed strongly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 50 avg Equibase speed fig. DIABLO CAT - Sound average Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races make this pony a key contender. Looks competitive to be up on the front end at the first call.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 10:07 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Maiden Optional Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7400 Class Rating: 59

FOR OREGON BRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 JACOMINA 3/1
# 6 HOT AUGUST STORM 9/5
# 3 MISSY PARKER 10/1

My selection in this race is JACOMINA. The average class figure of 46 makes this horse difficult to beat. She should have a strong outing versus this softer bunch. HOT AUGUST STORM - Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this racer look decent in this race. Look for a strong pace improvement from this animal who enters now going off Lasix today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 10:08 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:44pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 32

Rating:

#5 SHYLA GIRL (ML=3/1)

SHYLA GIRL - Have to give this horse a long hard look. In recent races, has posted the best Equibase speed figs on the turf at this distance. Running 5 furlongs on the turf, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This horse has the tops in the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MEGAN MACHEN (ML=7/2), #7 WHISKEY TALKING (ML=4/1), #8 FIGHT LIKE CERSEI (ML=9/2),

MEGAN MACHEN - This filly made little impact last time. WHISKEY TALKING - Most recent fig of 33 may not be true since it was on a sloppy track. FIGHT LIKE CERSEI - Difficult to take this vulnerable equine at these odds after the finish (eighth) in the last affair.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - SHYLA GIRL - Analysis shows this mare's last speed number of 53 is as good as any. Don't overlook this mare in your speculating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 SHYLA GIRL to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 3
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 10:09 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #11 - Post: 5:25pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#2 FORMAN THE FOREMAN (ML=8/1)
#12 TOMMY'S TOP CAT (ML=5/1)

FORMAN THE FOREMAN - Rodriguez drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more information to figure that this horse should have a chance to win at this level. He has the topmost earnings per race. Check out this horse. TOMMY'S TOP CAT - Last race was at Penn National in a race with a class figure of 84. Dropping a significant amount in Equibase class figure this time around puts him in a solid position today. Lee brings him right back. I advise you stay with this strong gelding. That recent bullet 36.5 work shows that this gelding is ready for a top race today. The recent speed fig of 74 is the best last race speed fig in the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 MAJESTIC JAZZ (ML=3/1), #4 ASK CHUCK (ML=4/1), #9 WEST FORK (ML=6/1),

MAJESTIC JAZZ - This favorite hasn't visited the track in awhile. No workouts since last race. When looking at today's class figure, he will have to garner a much better fig than in the last race to vie in this dirt sprint. ASK CHUCK - Recent lessening Equibase speed figs of 70/65/58 give a sign that this animal may be going off form. When examining today's Equibase class figure, he will have to notch a much better speed rating than last out to vie in this dirt sprint. WEST FORK - This horse likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually finish first. Don't play in the top spot. Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the questionable contenders list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 FORMAN THE FOREMAN to win. Have to have odds of at least 2/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 10:11 AM

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks	Place A Bet
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NBA – Celtics +2	Line @ Bovada
2.	Gameday Network	NBA – Pacers +6.5	Line @ Bovada
3.	VegasSI.com	NBA – Thunder +10.5	Line @ Bovada
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Red Sox -130	Line @ GT Bets
5.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Indians -185	Line @ GT Bets
6.	Point Spread Report	MLB – Orioles over 6.5	Line @ MyBookie
7.	Lou Panelli	MLB – Dodgers -1.5	Line @ Bovada
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	NBA – Lakers over 213	Line @ Bovada
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	NBA – Pistons +8	Line @ GT Bets
10.	William E. Stockton	NBA – Raptors over 217.5	Line @ MyBookie
11.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Indians -185	Line @ Bovada
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Twins +105	Line @ Bovada
13.	SCORE	MLB – Braves over 9	Line @ GT Bets
14.	East Coast Line Movers	NBA – Thunder +10.5	Line @ MyBookie
15.	Tony Campone	NBA – Magic +14	Line @ Bovada
16.	Chicago Sports Group	NBA – Pacers under 234	Line @ Bovada
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Yankees -125	Line @ Bovada
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Diamondbacks -115	Line @ GT Bets
19.	South Beach Sports	MLB – Reds +105	Line @ Bovada
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	NBA – Celtics +2	Line @ Bovada
21.	NY Players Club	NBA – Timberwolves -8	Line @ GT Bets
22.	Fred Callahan	NBA – Celtics +2	Line @ Bovada
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	MLB – Phillies +120	Line @ MyBookie
24.	Michigan Sports	MLB – Twins over 7.5	Line @ GT Bets
25.	National Consensus Report	MLB – Red Sox -130	Line @ Bovada

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 10:18 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (200001) Crystal Palace at (200002) Southampton
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: May 11, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Total Under 2.5 (-110)
Crystal Palace take on Southampton on Tuesday night, and while the Saints have struggled considerably over 2021, they have been better at home, conceding just 34.43% of all their goals there this season.
Crystal Palace meanwhile are averaging the sixth lowest xg on the road this season at 0.99, so could struggle to break down a Southampton team ranking 5th best on xga on defense at home.
Take the Under 2.5 between Crystal Palace and Southampton as your free play for Tuesday.
PLAY: UNDER 2.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-11-2021, 10:18 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Boavista at Sporting
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: May 11, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Sporting + UNDER 3.5 Goals (-110)
Portugal Primeira Liga
The league title will be won on Tuesday by a team other than Porto or Benfica for the first time since Sporting won it back in 2002. Sporting lead by eight points with three games to go and while it's all but certain at this point, a win on Wednesday will make it official for Sporting who have yet to lose a single game in league play this season.
They are a remarkable 24-7-0 with a +39 goal differential and are coming off three straight clean sheet wins, which is really nothing new for them as they have kept 19 clean sheets in 31 matches this year. All signs point to another clean sheet here even though Boavista is fighting their own battle against relegation right now, currently one point behind Rio Ave and safety for next season.
The problem is they haven't beaten Sporting since 2008 and have been held scoreless in eight of the last 11 H2H meetings with this prop coming through in seven of those games.
Some additional trends to back up this play include Boavista with a 9-22 O-U 3.5 Goals record and Sporting with a 6-25 O-U 3.5 Goals record and, in terms of xG, Sporting lead the league with a +1.07 xG differential per game while Boavista come in at -0.33 per game.
This should be a lopsided game without many chances going Boavista's way.
TAKE SPORTING + UNDER 3.5 GOALS
Line Parameter: 4% to -125