Saturday 5/15/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:37 AM

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, May 15, 2021 (Preakness Day Card)

RACE 1: Post: 10:30 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-The King Cheek; 4-Hozier

Forecast: Hozier is listed as the 2/5 morning line favorite in this year’s edition of the Sir Barton S., a listed affair around two turns for sophomores. Based on pure form he’s a stick out but if truth be told, the B. Baffert-trained colt really isn’t all that, his clunk-up runner-up effort in the Rebel S.-G2 flattering his true form. Sure, he can win, and against this group he probably will, but for those trying to beat the favorite The King Cheek is a viable alternative. This will be his first try around two-turns (bred for it) and from the rail he’s capable of inheriting the role as the controlling speed, assuming such a strategy is employed. The barn hits at 35% with a massive ROI with the sprint-to-route angle and one of this trainer’s “go-to” riders takes the call. The son of Laoban certainly offers better wagering value that the odds-on chalk, so while we’ll include both in rolling exotic play, we’ll press with The King Cheek in the win pool.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 10-Oceans Map; 5-Tapwood; 12-Daddy’s Cozy

Forecast: Ocean’s Map looks more than good enough on resume to win this first-level allowance middle distance turf event but all three of his victories were accomplished in gate-to-wire fashion and based on the projected pace flow of this race the son of Liam’s Map may have to settle off the leaders and produce a run. That type off strategy has never been his thing, so while he’s a major contender and a “must use” in rolling exotic play we’ll also include on our ticket a couple of others for protection. Tapwood, freshened since early March, makes his first start as a gelding for the M. Stidham barn (a strong 21% with layoffs) and should settle into a comfortable second flight stalking position. Overmatched in the Columbia Stakes last time out but properly spotted today, the son of Tapit offers reasonable value at 6-1 on the morning line. Daddy’s Cozy is hung out in the 12-hole for his first start since last October but is a perfect one-for-one over the Pimlico turf course and has several back numbers that are good enough to win. The work tab at Fair Hill is brief so it’s anybody’s guess as to his condition but on the chance that he’s fit and ready we’ll toss him in.
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RACE 3: Post: 11:41 ET Grade: B
Use: 4-Jaxon Traveler; 6-Willy Boi

Forecast: Jaxon Traveler is a photo away from being unbeaten in five starts and returned to winning form last month at Oaklawn Park with a sharp tally in the Bachelor Stakes that produced a career top speed figure. The son of Munnings switches to I. Ortiz. Jr. and is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite to continue his winning ways. He’ll be tough to beat. Willy Boi should enjoy an ideal stalking trip outside and worth including on a ticket or two as a saver. Winner of the Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park two runs back and then a runner-up in the Sophomore Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in late March, the son of Uncaptured returns to his preferred six furlong trip (unbeaten in three starts) and shows rapidly rising recent speed figures. With another forward move, he’ll be right there.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:16 PT Grade: B
Single: 6-Judi Blue Eyes

Forecast: We will single Judi Blue Eyes in this first-level allowance grass router for fillies and mares. It’s either do that or spread deeply, so for budget concerns let’s simply try to be right. The veteran mare, first or second in 12 of 24 career starts and a perfect one-for-one over the Pimlico lawn (a win in her most recent start), she has an ideal second flight, stalking style that should keep her free of trouble, and while she’s not particularly fast on speed figures she does produce consistent numbers that can win at this level. This jockey/trainer combo hits at a remarkable 38% with a massive flat bet profit, so let’s hope the daughter of Cal Nation fires her usual good shot at or near her morning line of 9/2.
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RACE 5: Post: 12:51 ET Grade: C+
Use: 2-Breaking News; 4-Fire Sword; 6-Baptize the Boy

Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance using three in this first-level allowance sprint but not with a high degree of confidence. Spread as deeply as your budget allows. The W. Ward-trained Fire Sword has had only three career starts (winning twice) so he may have more upside that most of the others. A 3-year-old tackling older, the son of First Samurai picks up Johnny V. for his first start since late February and will need to improve based on speed figures, but he’s a quick sort with a good recent series of workouts so we’re expecting a career top performance at 9/2 on the morning line. Breaking News attracts J. Rosario and arguably is the one to fear most, though his record of one win from 17 starts with nine seconds/thirds certainly makes him untrustworthy. On pure numbers he’s a strong fit but his lack of tactical speed always seems to result in some type of troubled trip. Baptize the Boy gets back on dry land today and picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. so the veteran gelding should be set for another good effort. Look for this son of Bandbox to settle in the second flight and then produce his best challenge from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:28 ET Grade: B+
Use: 5-Mean Mary; 6-Feel Glorious

Forecast: Though she hasn’t been out since finishing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf in November and certainly has bigger fish to fry than what she’s facing in this year’s Gallorette S.-G3, Mean Mary really should out class this group. The work tab indicates that she is plenty fit, she’s run well off layoffs in the past, and the barn has excellent stats with off-the-bench performers. The 5-year-old Scat Daddy mare is genuine, consistent, and adaptable at any distance, though at 6/5 on the morning line she won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value. As a saver or a back-up, we’ll consider Feel Glorious on a ticket or two. She’s the most dangerous of the closers and with some help up front could make her presence felt in the final furlong.
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RACE 7: Post: 2:07 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-McElmore Avenue; 9-Hanalei’s Houdini; 10-Mischief Afoot

Forecast: McElmore Avenue and Hanalei’s Houdini were scheduled to be scratched out of a grass race on Friday’s program for this similar middle distance main track allowance affair. Both charted as second-level contenders in yesterday’s race but today they are major players over a surface that better suits them. ‘Avenue, freshened since late February, picks up L. Saez, is strong in the speed figure department, and is quite capable of winning on the front end or from well off the pace. Before finishing a close second in his most recent start, the M. Eppler-trained gelding had reeled off four straight wins, and a duplication of his best effort could easily get him back on winning track today while offering a touch of value at 4-1 on the morning line. Though winless in six starts this year, Hanalei’s Houdini can run with these and his recent speed figures place him directly in the fray. The Jersey Town gelding has a good stalking style and just missed when beaten a neck under these conditions (while four lengths clear of the rest) in his most recent outing three weeks ago. Mischief Afoot was disqualified from a win at Laurel Park at this condition in mid-March – a first place finish that produced a career top speed figure - so he’s back at the same level hoping this time to maintain a straight course. He picks up J. L. Ortiz and is the most dangerous of the closing types.
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RACE 8: Post: 2:45 ET Grade: B-
Single: 2-Outadore

Forecast: Outadore may be a tad less effective around two turns than he is sprinting but he’s a versatile colt that can handle dirt or turf and can win on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position. His only prior grass route race certainly was good – a third place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf-G1 last November at Keeneland – so against this level of competition the W. Ward-trained sophomore would appear to be a legitimate short price favorite at 7/5 on the morning line and a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 3:25 ET Grade: B
Use: 5-Chub Wagon; 8-French Empire

Forecast: Parx form is sometimes hard to trust but there’s no denying that unbeaten Chub Wagon is an extremely fast and genuine sprinting filly. The Pennsylvania-bred filly crushed a state-bred stakes group in late April to extend her perfect streak to five, and before that she invaded New York to toy with an allowance field by nearly five lengths. Never headed, extremely fast on speed figures, and reunited with I. Ortiz, Jr. (who won on her in New York), the daughter of Hey Chub is the deserving morning line favorite at 8/5. It will be interesting to see how much pace pressure Dontletsweetfollya can apply during the early stages. If Chub Wagon is pressed to her limit during the opening half mile, the race could set up for French Empire, who has excellent credentials as well and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Herself a winner of four straight and five of her last six, the veteran daughter of Street Sense can really blast home but will need some help in order to catch the favorite.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Bolder; 4-The Critical Way; 5-Hollis; 13-Completed Pass

Forecast: There’s a ton of early speed in this year’s renewal of the Jim McKay Turf Sprint, but it’s quality speed, so there’s no guarantee of a pace meltdown. The Critical Way can take it as well as dish it out, and we see him as the most logical pace survivor and therefore the one that deserves the slight edge on top. Third in the Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland six weeks ago, the J. Delgado-trained gelding has been first or second in 12 of 23 career starts and is especially effective at this abbreviated five furlong trip. A bullet half-mile workout (:47 2/5, fastest of 28) at his home base at Monmouth Park last week should have him right on edge. Completed Pass is stuck way out in the 13-hole but he’s a not a particularly quick type and may be able to drop in somewhere in mid-pack, save some ground on the turn, and then commence his rally turning for home. With two wins and a second in three career starts over the local lawn, the son of Pass Rush has a bit of a home field advantage to work with and with good racing luck may be able to produce the last run. Bolder lands the rail and projects to enjoy a ground-saving trip from mid-pack. He’s another that is counting on a favorable race flow but if he can sneak through without being stopped the S. Asmussen-trained gelding has a chance to make some serious noise in the closing stages. Hollis should be included somewhere on your ticket as well. A stakes winner over this course and distance in his only prior outing at Old Hilltop, the veteran Street Sense gelding lands I. Ortiz, Jr. and may be able to make his presence felt at a decent price.
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RACE 11: Post: 4:41 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Yodel E. A. Who; 5-Strike Power; 7-Breezy Gust

Forecast: Top to bottom a chance in this deep and contentious renewal of the Maryland Sprint S.-G3. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics, but additional coverage may very well be required if you can afford it. Strike Power got cooked in a speed jam when weakening to finish fourth in the Count Fleet Sprint H.-G3 at Oaklawn Park last month, but this is a softer group so the veteran S. Asmussen-trained sprinter should stick better. Two runs back he earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure when trouncing a strong allowance field and if he can repeat that type of effort today the son of Speightstown certainly can win. Yodel E. A. Who is listed at 8-1 on the morning line and there may be some value at that price based on this tough gelding’s stalking style that will have him within striking range at the head of the lane. A close third in a strong allowance sprint at Belmont Park two weeks ago, the son of Creative Cause has numbers that fit and an admirable lifetime record of finishing first or second in 13 of 26 career starts. Breezy Gust ventures out of his Pennsylvania comfort zone to face his toughest test yet but the Great Notion gelding is a fit on figures and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Picking up J. Rosario certainly won’t hurt his chances. The winner of this race may be somewhere else but these three should fire big shots and with good racing luck figure to be in the picture in the final furlong.
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RACE 12: Post: 5:38 ET Grade: B
Use: 1-Somelikeitbrown; 5-Sacred Life

Forecast: Sacred Life, a willing third in the Maker’s Mark Mile-G1 at Keeneland last month, drops into a Grade-2 event today and in his second start off a layoff the C. Brown-trained horse looks capable of producing a winning late kick. First or second in 12 of 17 career outings, the lightly-raced French-bred 6-year-old retains regular pilot J. Castellano and seems likely to enjoy an ideal second-flight, stalking trip. The projected pace scenario looks muddled, which is why we’ll also include on our ticket the front-runner Somelikeitbrown. Always most effective when he’s the controlling speed, the son of Big was chewed up battling for the lead in his seasonal debut in the same race Sacred Life exits and hopefully won’t have to deal with 22 2/5 and 45 3/5 early splits this time, though Flying Scotsman may have something to say about that. Given the volatility of the pace flow, we’ll include both in our rolling exotic play with preference on top to Sacred Life.
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RACE 13: Post: 5:47 PT Grade: X
Use: 3-Medina Spirit; 5-Midnight Bourbon; 10-Concert Tour

Forecast: The week’s controversy notwithstanding, trainer B. Baffert seems set to saddle the first two finishers of the Preakness S.-G1, with Kentucky Derby winner (for now) Medina Spirit appearing more than capable of winning right back, though this time he won’t be 12-1. He’ll like draft in behind his committed front-running stable mate Concert Tour and then have every chance to go on by when the pressure is turned on. ‘Spirit has raced six times, and only has finished by two horses, his undefeated stablemate Life Is Good (twice) and Rock Your World, who beat him in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 with a gate-to-wire performance that earned the highest speed figure in any of the Derby spring prep races. ‘Spirit won’t have the luxury of a front-running trip in Maryland but given the quality (or lack thereof) of the competition we doubt he’ll need the front end to win. As for Concert Tour, he was visually quite impressive when taking the Rebel S.-G2 gate to wire two runs back, but less so on paper when you realize it was Hozier who finished second. Rating tactics didn’t work in the Arkansas Derby-G2 (he was never happy and lost his punch late) but with M. Smith taking the mount there will be no messing around with the son of Street Sense this time. Something of a case can be made for Midnight Bourbon, who was too far back in Kentucky to have any say in the Derby outcome and likely will be within striking range throughout today. The way we see it, he’s the only one the Baffert pair have to be concerned with.
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RACE 14: Post: 7:33 PT Grade: X
Use: Pass/No play

Forecast: The Preakness day nightcap is a race for Arabians. We will pass the race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:37 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Dinner Party at Pimlico
May 12, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$250,000 GRADE 2 DINNER PARTY STAKES AT PIMLICO
Saturday, May 15, 2021

The Lead:
Preakness Day at Pimlico features the middle jewel in the Triple Crown among 9 stakes on a 14-race program. The Dinner Party Stakes takes its usual spot on the schedule in the race immediately preceding the Preakness, and this 1-1/16 miles turf test has a long and glorious history dating back to 1870, when won by the horse named Preakness, for whom the track's signature race would later be named. Legendary victors here include Whirlaway, Assault, Fort Marcy, Lure, Paradise Creek and the ageless Better Talk Now.

Field Depth:
SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN has won at the Grade 2 level, and BYE BYE MELVIN is a Grade 3 winner. SACRED LIFE is Grade 1-placed and ENGLISH BEE is Grade 2-placed. TALK OR LISTEN was Group 3-placed in France. No doubt, SACRED LIFE and SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN have kept the strongest running lines.

Pace:
FLYING SCOTSMAN will be expected to set the pace with SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN, from the rail, the other forwardly placed runner. This should be a modest pace.

Our Eyes:
Runner-up in this race last year to the speedy Factor This, SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN returns in a funk. His last 2 starts were not up to his level. 'BROWN has earned nearly $700,000, tops in the field, but it's notable that trainer Mike Maker did not run him in a home game 2 weeks ago in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby Day. He either needed more time after a dull Maker's Mark Mile dud at Keeneland, or they're looking for easier spots for him now at age 5. That concerns me some for a horse I've always liked. He should get a very good pace set-up in this race, which is the reason tossing him feels risky.

SACRED LIFE also exits the Maker's Mark Mile, where he rallied for third and beat SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN by about 6 lengths. The late-running Chad Brown trainee will be ridden by Javier Castellano, a jockey who has absolutely dominated the Preakness weekend undercards in recent years. This clearly will be the horse to fear late. A potentially mild early pace is the hesitation from making him an all-in play, but he looks rock-solid against this group. Brown's deep stable also will send KURAMATA to the post in his first US stakes bid. The ex-UK runner is 2-for-2 in the US with a maiden and allowance score and makes a significant rise in class.

ENGLISH BEE won the Jimmy Murphy Stakes over this course on Preakness Day 2019 and returns now at age 5. He struggled through an 0-7 campaign a year ago and will be making his first start since October for a patient Graham Motion barn. Motion won the Dinner Party in 2003 and 2006, and will also have BYE BYE MELVIN in the gate Saturday. He was runner-up by a nose in the 2020 Murphy over this course in the October Preakness program. BYE BYE MELVIN's only start this year was a decent second in a Keeneland allowance won by fellow Dinner Party entrant MIDNIGHT TEA TIME.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SACRED LIFE is 5-5 in the exacta lifetime over the distance and got a very useful return race last time at Keeneland. He's the class.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
TALK OR LISTEN should be motoring late behind 100 and 97 BRIS late pace figures in his last 2 starts. The French import is only 1-for-5 since coming stateside, however, and may not get as much early pace to close into as you'd like. Turf ace rider Flavien Prat gets the call on one who could make them sweat late.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$85 daily double SACRED LIFE to MIDNIGHT BOURBON in the Preakness. $15 exacta SACRED LIFE over TALK OR LISTEN.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:37 AM

Preakness Post Draw Rapid Reaction
May 11, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

One of the most anticipated Preakness Stakes draws in history included 10 entries today, led by controversial Kentucky Derby first-place finisher Medina Spirit. The Bob Baffert trainee starts from post 3 and will be joined in the starting gate by stablemate Concert Tour (post 10). The Preakness will be Race 13 of 14 on a card that begins at 10:30 am ET. The Preakness Stakes post time is slated for 6:47 pm ET.

The Preakness pace almost certainly comes from the Baffert duo. With the farthest post, rest assured jockey Mike Smith will be hustling Concert Tour from the start and likely will make the front. Both horses are unbeaten when they race on the early lead. But John Velazquez on Medina Spirit likely won’t want Concert Tour pressing him to the outside, so it’s very likely he’ll concede the lead and let Concert Tour drop all the way over to the rail into the first turn.

The other contender to be in the front force would be Midnight Bourbon, who drew post 5. Japan’s entrant, France Go de Ina, will begin from post 7. The bulk of the Preakness field is drop-back closers who will settle early, try to save ground where possible and make runs where space opens. With a field of 10 and about a quarter-mile run to the clubhouse turn, post positions should not be make or break.

Baffert, who went public Sunday with news that Medina Spirit had tested positive for a prohibited raceday medication, will be aiming for a record-breaking eighth career Preakness victory. A score would pass R.W. Walden’s record in the race that has stood more than a century. On a similar note, D. Wayne Lukas sends out longshot Ram, who could give the 85-year-old trainer a record-tying seventh Woodlawn Vase trophy.

Saturday’s 14-race lineup also includes the Grade 2 Dinner Party Stakes among 9 stakes races in all.

146th Preakness Stakes // Pimlico // Race 13 // 6:47 pm ET

1. Ram (Ricard Santana Jr.) 30-1
2. Keepmeinmind (David Cohen) 15-1
3. Medina Spirit (John Velazquez) 9-5
4. Crowded Trade (Javier Castellano) 10-1
5. Midnight Bourbon (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 5-1
6. Rombauer (Flavien Prat) 12-1
7. France Go de Ina (Joel Rosario) 20-1
8. Unbridled Honor (Luis Saez) 15-1
9. Risk Taking (Jose Ortiz) 15-1
10. Concert Tour (Mike Smith) 5-2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:38 AM

Preakness 146 Horse-by-Horse Analysis + Betting Strategy

May 13, 2021 | By Johnny D

Nearly two weeks ago, official race results for the 147th Kentucky Derby were etched into history books.

Not so fast, my four-hooved friend!

To say that a lot has transpired since would be an open-lengths understatement. Derby winner Medina Spirit’s initial post-race drug tests revealed an apparent rules infraction based on the presence of a legal medication above a zero-level tolerance. Assorted theories and allegations about how the drug may have made it into the Derby winner’s bloodstream have been proffered but, currently, we’re not even 100% sure it was even present in the post-race test until split sample results return. FYI, it’s rare that split samples don’t match original findings.

Chances are that by the time you read this, and, even by the time horses load into the starting gate Saturday for Preakness, the official ‘official’ Run for the Roses result won’t be any clearer, as Medina Spirit’s connections anxiously await the other shoe to drop in the form of DNA and split sample test results.

Therefore, as the field loads into the Preakness starting gate, we won’t really know if Medina Spirit is attempting to clear the second hurdle of the Triple Crown--one of the most difficult achievements in all of sport—or is merely racing for redemption.

And what about Hall-of-Fame trainer Bob Baffert--the man who two Saturday’s ago appeared to have earned his seventh and record-setting Kentucky Derby victory? He’s entered 9-5 Preakness morning line favorite Medina Spirit and 5/2 second choice Concert Tour in Preakness. The popular trainer won’t attend the race in person. Probably best. Following a hurried Churchill Downs backstretch press conference, presumably organized to announce the original test results and ‘to get ahead of the story,’ Baffert has, subsequently, appeared on television just about everywhere from CNN to Fox News to present his version.

While the drama plays out offstage, a pressing Preakness production requires immediate presentation. The show must go on!

Tens of millions of dollars will be wagered on Preakness and, according to what transpires at Pimlico, that ancient and tired emporium that will once more prove she’s still ‘got it,’ a year before she is scheduled to finally surrender to bulldozers for a revitalization that will serve both racing fans and community citizens.

NFL, MLB, NBA and NHL franchises move into new homes about every 20-30 years. That’s extravagance. They’ve been picking ‘em up and laying ‘em down at Old Hilltop since 1870. For non-history buffs, that’s about four years after Lee cried ‘uncle’ to Grant at Appomattox!

Through the years her grit and determination have been remarkable. Millions have partied on her infield belly, she’s out-lived decades of assorted death sentences, a gambling ban, and TWO every-100-years pandemics!

As Alfred G. Vanderbilt, apparently, once told Wikipedia, “Pimlico is more than a dirt track bounded by four streets. It is an accepted American institution, devoted to the best interests of a great sport, graced by time, respected for its honorable past.”

Word, Al.

Obviously, a COVID-restricted 2021 crowd won’t inhabit the original late-1800s grandstand. However, they will tread the same grounds. Recently, Pimlico came to the rescue of sister track Laurel when the latter experienced surface issues. The equine circus moved to Pimlico earlier and for longer than anticipated and she has provided a suitable emergency big top.

It will be impossible to completely eliminate post-Derby drama from Saturday’s happenings. Still, we would be mistaken to not try. There will be a 146th Preakness at Pimlico and the event shapes up as an interesting renewal--as both sport and wagering proposition. It’s the weekend’s surest bet that patrons wearing hats and masks will cheer, groan, cash and mutilate mutuel tickets while consuming mass quantities of food and drink. And once more, like clockwork for the 146th time, in that ancient and determined Pimlico edifice, fashionable shoes will create an afternoon’s worth of assorted painful blisters.

On track or at home, we should embrace the moment and enjoy the show. If our existence over the last year-plus has taught us anything, it’s that we should savor life’s major moments. The journey’s awfully empty without them.

Below is one man’s horse-by-horse opinion of the Preakness Stakes, including a suggested wagering strategy.

1. RAM (LUKAS/SANTANA JR.) - 30/1

What’s Preakness without ‘Coach?’ Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas has pulled off some major upsets at Old Hilltop, but this shouldn’t be one of them. This son of American Pharoah has distinguished himself in his last two races, winning a maiden $50k claiming heat and a first-level allowance test. Before and including those, there’s nothing in his past performance lines to suggest he can threaten in here. Love ya, Coach, but we’ll pass.

2. KEEPMEINMIND (DIODORO/COHEN) - 15/1

At two this guy displayed a world of talent. He finished in the money in a maiden race, the Gr. 1 Breeders Futurity and the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He also finally won the Gr. 2 Kentucky Jockey Club as a maiden! That’s a strong resume. Heading into his 3-year-old season he was reportedly knocked off schedule by poor weather in Arkansas and hasn’t regained his best form. The big question with this one is: Was he a precocious 2-year-old that didn’t develop much at three or did the missed training really affect him? This son of low-profile sire Laoban ran well in the Kentucky Derby. After blowing the start and racing in last of 19, he was one of the few in the field to close ground in the stretch while about 10 lanes wide. Ultimately, he finished seventh, less than nine lengths behind winner and 9-5 Preakness favorite #3 Medina Spirit and just a neck behind 5-1 Preakness foe #5 Midnight Bourbon. This guy has the look of a Preakness exotics price play. He will need to show more speed than he did in Louisville, but he seems prepared to run a big race at a big price. Use him where you can, especially underneath in exotics.

3. MEDINA SPIRIT (BAFFERT/VELAZQUEZ) - 9/5

At this writing, he’s still the Kentucky Derby winner, pending additional testing, a possible official disqualification and possible subsequent lawsuits. What he did on the racetrack Derby Day was impressive. He went to the front under Hall-of-Fame jockey John Velazquez, rationed his speed over a mile and one-quarter, and fought like hell when threatened by a quartet of capable challengers. In six starts, he hasn’t permitted a horse to pass him when it counts. On the reverse side, the once $1,000 yearling and $35,000 2-year-old by Protonico hasn’t passed a foe when it counts, either. He’s never been worse than second and only been defeated by top-class foes. He doesn’t figure to have an easy lead in this race, though. Stablemate Concert Tour should see to that. Also, the Kentucky Derby effort probably will have taken something out of him. We expect him to run well, but not nearly as well as he did in Kentucky and he won’t be much price. Use him if you must. Bold players expecting a reaction from the Derby effort will toss him and swing for the fences.

4. CROWDED TRADE (BROWN/CASTELLANO) - 10/1

Eligible to start in the Kentucky Derby based on Points, trainer Chad Brown (like Baffert with #10 Concert Tour) elected to skip a Roses try and aimed for Preakness with this one instead. The extended Derby mile and one-quarter distance was offered as part of the reason for the move. The colt has had just three career races and his last performance in the Gr. 2 Wood wasn’t electrifying as he was third to Derby also-rans Bourbonic and Dynamic One. This son of More than Ready ran well but was caught late in the Gr. 3 Gotham to be second by a nose. He’s liable to be racing from off of what could be a decent early Preakness pace. He seems to have talent but may be in a bit deep based on his abbreviated experience. Exotics only.

5. MIDNIGHT BOURBON (ASMUSSEN/I. ORTIZ JR.) - 5/1

He’s the most experienced runner in the field with eight starts. In those appearances, at five different tracks, he’s managed a pair of wins—a maiden race and the Gr. 3 Lecomte--two seconds and three thirds. His only off-the-board finish came last out when sixth, beaten less than nine lengths in the Kentucky Derby. In Louisville, under Mike Smith, he didn’t show his usual early speed but did well to finish with interest. His Thoro-Graph speed figure pattern is interesting because he’s never taken a backward step and his races are fast enough to fit in here. That’s a great sign for a 3-year-old colt. One drawback is that he hasn’t really shown a fighting spirit at the conclusion of races. Derby aside, the only times he’s ever passed a horse or gained ground in the stretch were in his maiden win and in the Lecomte—both virtual wire-to-wire efforts. With an even break, he’s not fast enough to outrun #10 Concert Tour early and doesn’t appear swift enough to comfortably clear #3 Medina Spirit either. However, we expect him to run well and the price could be right. Include him in your plays, especially in exotics.

6. ROMBAUER (MCCARTHY/PRAT) - 12/1

Connections of this son of Twirling Candy enjoy a bit of a free roll in Preakness based on an El Camino Real victory going one mile and one-eighth on synthetics at Golden Gate. That tally earned the colt a no-fees berth in the run for the crab cakes. Last out, the colt showed some spunk by finishing third behind Derby favorite Essential Quality and Derby also-ran Highly Motivated. This colt is another that was eligible to start in the Derby but passed for Preakness. Trainer Michael McCarthy does good work and jockey Prat is one of the nation’s best. Overall, this guy is moving in the right direction and could be included on the bottom of superfectas at a big price. He has no early speed and, if things get heated up front, he’ll be finishing with interest. Bottom of Exotics at best.

7. FRANCE GO DE INA (MORI/ROSARIO) - 20/1

This guy last started in the Gr. 2 UAE Derby in Dubai in March. He’s no stranger to travel; bred and born in Kentucky, raced in Japan, Dubai and, soon, the United States. A more than four-length winner of two of three starts at Hanshin in Japan at one mile and one-eighth, he and Preakness jockey Joel Rosario broke slowly in the Dubai field of 14 and pretty much lost all chance. They closed ground to be sixth, beaten more than 10 lengths. It’s difficult to gauge how much talent this son of Will Take Charge might have but we’ll have to watch this Japan-by-way-of-Dubai import beat us. During a Pimlico breeze Wednesday, he stumbled and lost his rider. Horse and rider were reportedly ‘fine.’ There are too many other known factors that look good. Pass.

8. UNBRIDLED HONOR (PLETCHER/SAEZ) - 15/1

Newly minted Hall-of-Fame trainer Todd Pletcher’s not known for running horses in Preakness. This one finished second last out in the Lexington Stakes behind Derby also-ran King Fury. It was a decent effort, but he’ll need a bit better to threaten in here. He broke maiden going two turns at Tampa Bay Downs in his third start. He has no early speed and has a win and a second to his credit in five starts. Pass.

9. RISK TAKING (BROWN/J. ORTIZ) - 15/1

After some careful consideration by trainer Chad Brown, this son of Medaglia d’Oro was added to the Preakness roster. Scratched, as morning-line favorite, from last Saturday’s Gr. 3 Peter Pan at Belmont, connections believe this colt will enjoy racing two turns and at the one mile and three-sixteenths Preakness distance. Risk Taking, a somewhat suitable name, has had just five starts—three at two and two at three—with a maiden mile one one-eighth win at Aqueduct in December and a Gr. 3 Withers tally over the same surface and distance in February. Last out he disappointed as favorite in the Gr. 2 Wood. Trainer Brown notes that if you draw a line through the colt’s last race, he fits in Preakness based on numbers. Brown’s not incorrect. If this colt were to return to his Withers Thoro-Graph figure in Preakness (a bit of an ask, but not impossible), he’d have a legitimate shot. Respect for the Wither’s Thoro-Graph figure and trainer Brown’s judgement force us to use this guy some. Sprinkle him in wagers at what should be a decent price. Exotics use.

10. CONCERT TOUR (BAFFERT/SMITH) - 5/2

A top Kentucky Derby prospect until a disappointing third-place finish as heavy favorite in the Arkansas Derby caused trainer Bob Baffert to alter plans and to skip the Louisville party with him. May have been the best thing for the son of Street Sense’s Preakness chances. He’s looked fine training for the race and brings a sparking record of three wins in four starts into the race, including the Gr.2 San Vicente and Gr. 2 Rebel. He’s got speed and a Hall of Fame jockey in Mike Smith to dole it out. Count him in just about everything you do wager-wise in Preakness. He should have enough speed to get to the early lead by Pimlico’s first turn. He’s the ‘One to Beat’ but not unbeatable.

BOTTOM LINE:

This is an intriguing race because Derby winner and morning line 9-5 favorite #3 Medina Spirit enters Preakness with a bullseye on his back and tornado-level drama whirling around him. We’re not against him in Preakness because of any of that. We think he may have fired his bests shot in the Derby. He’s been a steady performer with a fine resume, but he won’t make a comfortable lead in here and off that big effort in the Derby he could be vulnerable at a short price. Stablemate #10 Concert Tour should gain the early lead and ought to take this group a long way. He’s fast, fresh, lightly raced and talented. Jockey Mike Smith will need to get him running from the far outside and there’s a chance the colt could get too eager, too early. In that case, things would get interesting. #3 Medina Spirit probably will track that one in concert with #5 Midnight Bourbon.

One to Beat: #10 Concert Tour

Should Run Well: #2 Keepmeinmind, #5 Midnight Bourbon

Against: #3 Medina Spirit

Exotics at a Price: #4 Crowded Trade, #9 Risk Taking

THE TICKETS:

$2 Trifecta ($16 Total)

First: #10
Second: #2, #5
Third: #2, #3, #4 #5, #9

$1 Trifecta ($24 Total)

First: #2, #5, #10
Second: #2, #5, #10
Third: #2, #4, #3, #5, #9, #10

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:38 AM

Jon White's Preakness Stakes Selections

May 12, 2021 | By Jon White

Before I get to my selections for this Saturday’s Grade I, $1 million Preakness Stakes, I can’t ignore the elephant -- or more specifically, the horse -- in the room. The horse, of course, is Medina Spirit.

As of May 12, Medina Spirit is still the official winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby. But his status as such is in serious jeopardy.

In a stunning announcement last Sunday that rocked Thoroughbred racing, Bob Baffert, Medina Spirit’s Hall of Fame trainer, said he received word that the colt had tested positive for 21 picograms of betamethasone. Betamethasone is a corticosteroid used to reduce inflammation.

While Betamethasone is permitted for training in Kentucky, the state’s rule regarding this substance vis-a-vis racing is crystal clear. Whereas the allowable threshold for betamethasone in a post-race test in Kentucky previously had been 10 picograms, it was changed last year to disallow even a trace amount.

Not surprisingly, Baffert’s announcement last Sunday caused an immediate uproar.

Baffert, who has had a rash of positives over the past year or so, spent much of Sunday and Monday in a media blitz. Over and over, he stated categorically that Medina Spirit had “never” been administered betamethasone.

But then Tuesday, Baffert released a statement through his attorney, Craig Robertson, stating that Medina Spirit had been treated with an anti-fungal ointment containing betamethasone. Baffert’s statement, as posted by the Paulick Report, is as follows:

“On May 8, 2021, I was informed by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission that Medina Spirit allegedly tested positive for 21 picograms of betamethasone. On May 9, 2021, I held a press conference in which I stated that I intended to thoroughly investigate how this could have happened and that I would be completely transparent throughout the process. I immediately began that investigation, which has resulted in me learning of a possible source for the betamethasone, and now, as promised, I want to be forthright about what I have learned.

“Following the Santa Anita Derby, Medina Spirit developed dermatitis on his hind end. I had him checked out by my veterinarian who recommended the use of an anti-fungal ointment called Otomax. The veterinary recommendation was to apply this ointment daily to give the horse relief, help heal the dermatitis, and prevent it from spreading. My barn followed this recommendation and Medina Spirit was treated with Otomax once a day up until the day before the Kentucky Derby. Yesterday, I was informed that one of the substances in Otomax is betamethasone.

“While we do not know definitively that this was the source of the alleged 21 picograms found in Medina Spirit’s post-race blood sample, and our investigation is continuing, I have been told by equine pharmacology experts that this could explain the test results. As such, I wanted to be forthright about this fact as soon as I learned of this information.

“As I have stated, my investigation is continuing and we do not know for sure if this ointment was the cause of the test results, or if the test results are even accurate, as they have yet to be confirmed by the split sample. However, again, I have been told that a finding of a small amount, such as 21 picograms, could be consistent with application of this type of ointment. I intend to continue to investigate and I will continue to be transparent.

“In the meantime, I want to reiterate two points I made when this matter initially came to light. First, I had no knowledge of how betamethasone could have possibly found its way into Medina Spirit (until now) and this has never been a case of attempting to game the system or get an unfair advantage. Second, horse racing must address its regulatory problem when it comes to substances which can innocuously find their way into a horse's system at the picogram (which is a trillionth of a gram) level. Medina Spirit earned his Kentucky Derby win and my pharmacologists have told me that 21 picograms of betamethasone would have had no effect on the outcome of the race. Medina Spirit is a deserved champion and I will continue to fight for him.”

CHURCHILL DOWNS BANS BAFFERT ENTRIES

Following Baffert’s revelation last Sunday of Medina Spirit’s positive test, Churchill Downs issued the following statement:

“It is our understanding that Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit’s post-race blood sample indicated a violation of the Commonwealth of Kentucky’s equine medication protocols. The connections of Medina Spirit have the right to request a test of a split sample and we understand they intend to do so. To be clear, if the findings are upheld, Medina Spirit’s results in the Kentucky Derby will be invalidated and Mandaloun will be declared the winner.

“Failure to comply with the rules and medication protocols jeopardizes the safety of the horses and jockeys, the integrity of our sport and the reputation of the Kentucky Derby and all who participate. Churchill Downs will not tolerate it. Given the seriousness of the alleged offense, Churchill Downs will immediately suspend Bob Baffert, the trainer of Medina Spirit, from entering any horses at Churchill Downs Racetrack. We will await the conclusion of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission’s investigation before taking further steps.”

MEDINA SPIRIT ALLOWED TO ENTER PREAKNESS

Post positions for the Preakness originally were to be drawn Monday. But the Maryland Jockey Club announced last Sunday that the draw for the May 15 card at Pimlico, highlighted by the Preakness, was going to be delayed until Tuesday because of the Medina Spirit situation.
1/ST Racing/The Stronach Group issued the following statement last Sunday:

“Integrity in the sport of Thoroughbred horse racing is the ultimate priority for 1/ST Racing and the Maryland Jockey Club. 1/ST Racing has been an industry leader instituting processes and protocols that have led to nationwide medication reform and increased accountability. We are committed to achieving the highest level of horse care and safety standards, and we have a proven track record of pushing those standards forward.

“1/ST Racing and MJC intend to review the relevant facts and information relating to the reported medication positive as a result of the post-race blood sample testing completed by Churchill Downs following the 147th Kentucky Derby involving Medina Spirit trained by Bob Baffert. We are consulting with the Maryland Racing Commission and any decision regarding the entry of Medina Spirit in the 146th Preakness Stakes will be made after review of the facts.”

Whether or not Medina Spirit and/or Concert Tour, also trained by Baffert, would be permitted to be entered in the Preakness remained up in the air until Tuesday. Baffert’s attorney then stated Tuesday that an agreement had been reached to allow Medina Spirit and Concert Tour to be entered in the race.

The Paulick Report posted the following letter sent by Robertson to Alan Rifkin, counsel for the Maryland Jockey Club, which discussed the conditions of the agreement:

“Dear Mr. Rifkin,

“In the best interest of horse racing, and the integrity of the sport, Mr. Baffert consents to blood testing, monitoring and medical record review by the Maryland Jockey Club (“MJC”) on the horse Medina Spirit, and two other horses trained by Mr. Baffert. Medina Spirit and Concert Tour are presently entered in the Preakness Stakes and Beautiful Gift is presently entered in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes.

“In addition to the testing and monitoring conducted by the Maryland Racing Commission (“MRC”) and/or in cooperation with the MRC, the horses were tested upon arrival at Pimlico and further blood samples will also be drawn today and as may be further determined by MJC from each of the horses. The MJC blood samples will be tested by a lab chosen by the MJC.

“Consistent with the fair procedure process provided by The Stronach Group, Mr. Baffert consents to information regarding the results of the MRC and MJC tests, and other relevant medical and administrative records relating to the horses being disclosed to the MJC and Dr. Dionne Benson, The Stronach Group Chief Veterinary Officer.

“If any of the three horses test positive for a banned substance, or at a level for a permitted therapeutic substance which is above the designated limit, or if reasonable conditions warrant after MJC’s review of the medical or administrative records, Mr. Baffert, or MJC on his behalf, will scratch that horse from the upcoming race in which that horse is entered this weekend at Pimlico.

“Mr. Baffert has given these consents to further the interests of horse racing and the public. MJC may provide this letter and consents herein to the MRC and Mr. Baffert consents to the public release of this letter and all testing results. Mr. Baffert represents that he has authority to grant the consents represented herein on behalf of the owners of the aforementioned horses.

“The integrity of the sport is of the upmost importance to Mr. Baffert and by consenting to this testing regimen and monitoring he reaffirms his commitment and dedication to the sport. Please let me know if you have any questions.

“Sincerely yours,

“Craig Robertson”

After the draw for Preakness post positions Tuesday, Rifkin said: “TSG [The Stronach Group] and MJC [Maryland Jockey Club], as you all know, care deeply about the integrity of the sport. But that also includes the integrity of due process. So today we reached an agreement with Mr. Baffert and his lawyers that allows for additional testing, additionally monitoring, essentially a watch list, to ensure the integrity of the sport leading up to the race. So we are very pleased to have that. We appreciate Mr. Baffert’s participation and the way his lawyers went about it.”

PAST KENTUCKY DERBY DISQUALIFICATIONS

Two years ago, Maximum Security finished first in the Kentucky Derby by 1 3/4 lengths. But he was disqualified and placed 17th by the stewards for committing a foul when he veered out nearing the five-sixteenths pole and caused interference to War of Will, Long Range Toddy and Bodexpress.
It was the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby that a winner had been disqualified for an incident during the running of the race.
In a gigantic upset, Country House was declared the official 2019 Kentucky Derby winner, returning $132.40 for each $2 win wager.

Gate Dancer, who became known for racing with earmuffs, finished fourth in the 1984 Kentucky Derby. But he was disqualified and placed fifth for causing interference to Fali Time. Gate Dancer lugged in during the stretch run and bumped poor little Fali Time “several times,” as noted in the Daily Racing Form chart.

Later in 1984, Gate Dancer finished second to Wild Again in the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Classic at Hollywood Park. Slew o’ Gold ended up third. But the stewards ruled that Gate Dancer had caused interference during the stretch run. Gate Dancer was disqualified and placed third, behind Slew o’ Gold.

Dancer’s Image rallied from last in a field of 14 to win the 1968 Kentucky Derby by 1 1/2 lengths over Forward Pass. However, the post-race urinalysis of Dancer’s Image showed the presence of Butazolidin, which at the time was a prohibited medication in Kentucky. Consequently, Forward Pass was declared to be the winner of the 1968 Kentucky Derby except for pari-mutuel payoffs. First purse money and the winning trophy were awarded to Forward Pass’ owner, Calumet Farm, by order of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Peter Fuller, who owned Dancer’s Image, fought the disqualification in court for years, but to no avail.

Forward Pass won the subsequent Preakness by six lengths. Dancer’s Image finished third, then was disqualified and placed eighth for causing interference during the stretch run.

In addition to becoming the first horse ever disqualified in the Kentucky Derby, Dancer’s Image became the first horse ever DQ’d in the Preakness.

If Forward Pass had gone on to win the Belmont, he would have become a Triple Crown with an asterisk due to having won the Kentucky Derby through disqualification. But Forward Pass finished second in the Belmont, 1 1/2 lengths behind Stage Door Johnny (one of my all-time favorite broodmare sires).

2021 TRIPLE CROWN PICTURE

As mentioned earlier, as of May 12, Medina Spirit is still the official winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby. As long as this is the case, if Medina Spirit is victorious in the Preakness, he would head to the Belmont with a chance to become this country’s 14th Triple Crown winner and Baffert’s third horse to sweep the three races, following American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018.

But if Medina Spirit is, at some point, disqualified from the Kentucky Derby, then a possible Triple Crown sweep is out of the question for him, even should he win the Preakness.

And it now seems highly likely that Medina Spirit is, at some point, going to be disqualified from his Kentucky Derby victory, especially after Baffert stated Tuesday that Medina Spirit had been treated with an ointment containing betamethasone.

The Louisville Courier-Journal’s Tim Sullivan explained why it’s highly likely that Medina Spirit is, at some point, going to be disqualified from his Kentucky Derby victory.

“Whether the 21 picograms of betamethasone detected in Medina Spirit’s blood sample could have made any difference in the outcome of the Derby is an interesting question, but ultimately irrelevant to the disqualification decision,” Sullivan wrote. “Kentucky regulations call for a mandatory disqualification and loss of purse if any verifiable amount of betamethasone is found in post-race testing and confirmed by a split sample.”

In light of Baffert stating Tuesday that Medina Spirit had been treated with an ointment containing betamethasone, it now seems a slam-dunk that the split sample will confirm the presence of betamethasone in Medina Spirit’s system when he ran in the Kentucky Derby.

Mandaloun finished second in the Kentucky Derby. If Mandaloun is declared the Kentucky Derby winner at some point through the disqualification of Medina Spirit, it will take the possibility of a Triple Crown sweep off the table this year prior to the June 5 Belmont even if Medina Spirit wins the Preakness.

PREAKNESS SELECTIONS

Medina Spirit “drew” post position 3 for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness. No, Medina Spirit was not “assigned” post 3, as Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee wrote.

I watched the draw for Preakness post positions on TVG. You know what? I did not see anyone do any assigning. To say post positions were “assigned” for the Preakness is like saying someone “assigned” the winning lottery numbers. The Preakness post positions were, as usual, determined by a random draw. Look, I know that I keep harping on this. But wrong is wrong. Perhaps the day will come when McGee stops making this mistake over and over again. I really hope so.

My Preakness selections are below:

1. Concert Tour
2. Medina Spirit
3. Midnight Bourbon
4. Crowded Trade

It really was an extremely tough decision for me whether to make Concert Tour or Medina Spirit my top pick. But I am going to go with my gut. My gut is telling me to go with Concert Tour.

I just can’t forget what Baffert said about Concert Tour after the Kentucky-bred Street Sense colt won Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes in front-running fashion by 4 1/4 lengths on March 13.

“To me, it was kind of an American Pharoah-type run,” Baffert said. “He was doing it with ease, with plenty left.”

In 2015, American Pharoah won the Rebel and Arkansas Derby for Baffert, then swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont to end a 37-year Triple Crown drought.

Prior to this year’s Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn on April 10, I think most people would have ranked Baffert’s 3-year-old colts this way: Life Is Good at No. 1, Concert Tour at No. 2, then Medina Spirit at No. 3.

But then Concert Tour finished third as a 3-10 favorite for Baffert and owners Gary and Mary West in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby. Super Stock won in a 12-1 upset. Caddo River finished third.

Prior to the Arkansas Derby, Concert Tour had trounced both Super Stock and Caddo River in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel. Super Stock lost by 6 1/2 lengths. Caddo River finished 6 3/4 lengths behind Concert Tour.

I’ve heard people say Concert Tour “ran a stinker” in the Arkansas Derby. Did he disappoint as an overwhelming favorite? Yes. But did he run a stinker? No. He lost by 2 1/2 lengths, not 12 1/2 or 22 1/2 lengths.

With three weeks between the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby, the decision was made by Baffert and Gary West for Concert Tour to skip the Run for the Roses.

“Three weeks just wasn’t enough to really feel comfortable to go” to the Kentucky Derby, Baffert explained. “And Gary West really didn’t feel comfortable running in the Derby after a race like that” by Concert Tour in the Arkansas Derby.”

Considering I, like so many others, ranked Concert Tour higher than Medina Spirit among Baffert’s 3-year-old colts prior to the Arkansas Derby, I am going to go ahead and rank Concert Tour higher than Medina Spirit going into the Preakness. Hence, Concert Tour is my top pick in the Preakness.

I will say that one reason it is difficult for me to not make Medina Spirit my top pick Saturday is Baffert’s prowess in winning the Preakness with his Kentucky Derby winners. Indeed, when the two races have been run in May, all six of Baffert’s Kentucky Derby winners (Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002, American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018) returned two weeks later to take the Preakness.

Baffert once said that he believes one of the reasons for his success when starting a horse in the Preakness just two weeks after the Kentucky Derby is what he had to do for many years when running horses in futurities and derbies during his Quarter Horse days.

For futurities and derbies during Baffert’s time as a Quarter Horse conditioner, qualifying trials generally would be held just one week earlier. Baffert learned to deal with what he called “the quick turnaround in the Quarter Horse world” by having a horse “run well enough” to qualify for the futurity or derby, but “not too well.” The goal was for the horse to come back a week after the trial and still be able to take a serious run at winning the futurity or derby.

The only time a Kentucky Derby winner trained by Baffert has not subsequently won the Preakness was last year. That’s when the Kentucky Derby and Preakness were run later in the year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, plus there were four weeks between the two races instead of the usual two weeks. The Kentucky Derby was held on Sept. 5. The Preakness was run on Oct. 3.

Baffert won last year’s Kentucky Derby with Authentic, who then finished second in the Preakness, which he lost by a head to the filly Swiss Skydiver.

Mindful of Baffert’s terrific Preakness record with his Kentucky Derby winners, I may regret not making Medina Spirit my top pick for Saturday’s race. But another reason I am choosing Concert Tour is I am going to take my own advice from 1973.

DON’T OVERREACT TO A SINGLE DEFEAT

As I recently wrote for Xpressbet.com, I was sky high on Secretariat in the spring of 1973. In my high school newspaper, the Lewis and Clark Journal, I wrote on March 22, 1973: “Going out on a limb and living dangerously I daresay that 1973 will be a historic year as Secretariat will become the first Triple Crown winner since the great Citation in 1948.”

Two weeks before the Kentucky Derby, Secretariat finished third in the Wood Memorial. Angle Light won. Sham ran second. Lucien Laurin trained both Angle Light and Secretariat.

Secretariat lost the Wood Memorial by four lengths. Yes, the great Secretariat lost that race by an even larger margin than Concert Tour’s 2 1/2-length margin of defeat in the Arkansas Derby.

In the outstanding book “Big Red of Meadow Stable,” William Nack wrote of the 1973 Wood Memorial: “Later, trainer Lucien Laurin revealed that an abscess inside Secretariat’s mouth must have caused the horse serious discomfort, possibly accounting for the defeat.”

Of course, as a high school student in Spokane, Wash., I had no inkling that an abscess inside Secretariat’s mouth might have accounted for his defeat in the Wood. But even without having any knowledge of the abscess, I steadfastly stuck with Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby.

“You can’t throw out a horse because of one defeat. It takes more than that,” I wrote on April 25 in the Lewis and Clark Journal when explaining why I was still picking Secretariat to win the Kentucky Derby despite his defeat in the Wood. “A perfect example is last year when Riva Ridge lost the Everglades but came back strongly to take the Blue Grass Stakes, Kentucky Derby and grueling Belmont Stakes.”

On April 25 (10 days before the race), these were my 1973 Kentucky Derby selections in the Lewis and Clark Journal:

1. Secretariat
2. Sham
3. Stop the Music
4. Angle Light

Secretariat came charging from last to win the Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths. He completed 1 1/4 miles in 1:59 2/5, breaking the track record set by Northern Dancer in the 1964 Kentucky Derby by three-fifths of a second. All these years later, Secretariat’s record still stands.

Sham ran fast enough to win most Kentucky Derbies, but he had to settle for second while finishing eight lengths clear of Our Native in third. Forego (a future three-time Horse of the Year) ran fourth in the field 13.

MORE TIME BETWEEN RACES A PLUS?

Even though Baffert has excelled when dealing with the two weeks between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, I like the fact that Concert Tour is fresher than Medina Spirit going into the Preakness.

Medina Spirit ran a hard race in Louisville two weeks ago. It’s been five weeks between the Arkansas Derby and Preakness for Concert Tour, which is a time between starts that seems to be more preferable in the way Thoroughbreds are raced nowadays.

HOW WILL THE PACE UNFOLD?

Am I concerned that Concert Tour drew the outside post in the Preakness field of 10? No. Actually, I like it. If I’m right and Concert Tour is the horse I think he is, someone capable of an American Pharoah-type performance, I can picture him seizing the early lead and staying in front all the way to the end.

If Concert Tour does get the early advantage, it might not be good for Medina Spirit.

In Medina Spirit’s two wins this year, he took the early lead. In the three races this year in which he did not get the early lead, he finished second each time.

On the other hand, if it’s Medina Spirit in front early Saturday, it might not be good for Concert Tour. Can Concert Tour win Saturday if he is second early, behind Medina Spirit? Maybe. Concert Tour did come from slightly off the pace to win Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs on Feb. 6.

But a potential problem for Concert Tour if it turns out Medina Spirit does scoot to the early lead Saturday is how tenacious Medina Spirit can be when he is able to show the way early. Medina Spirit demonstrated that when he won Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30 and again when victorious in the Kentucky Derby.

Medina Spirit’s determination during the stretch drive of the Kentucky Derby “was sort of the same race he ran when he won the Robert Lewis,” Baffert said.

In the Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit refused to relinquish the lead all the way down the lane while fending off Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie and Essential Quality, who finished 2-3-4 in that order. Medina Spirit prevailed by a half-length.

There is another possible scenario this Saturday. What if Medina Spirit and Concert Tour chew themselves up because they both get involved in a fast early pace? This would be akin to what occurred in the Arkansas Derby. Caddo River set a fast pace while being pushed hard by Concert Tour at Oaklawn that day. They set it up for Super Stock, who ran past the weary pair late to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths.

One should always remember that trying to forecast the pace in a horse race can be tricky. What occurs at the break can significantly affect how a race and its pace unfolds, as evidenced by what happened with potential pace factors Rock Your World, Essential Quality and Midnight Bourbon at the outside of the Kentucky Derby.

BEST THORO-GRAPH NUMBER IN THE DERBY

Still another reason I am not going with Medina Spirit as my top pick in the Preakness are the Thoro-Graph numbers from the Kentucky Derby.

Medina Spirit was credited with a career-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure for his Kentucky Derby triumph. Essential Quality, the 5-2 favorite who as noted previously finished fourth, received a 100 Beyer for that race.

Thoro-Graph takes many more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”

“I’m guessing that Essential Quality will be the Kentucky Derby starter who quite possibly will emerge from the race with the best Thoro-Graph number,” I wrote last week. “When it comes to Thoro-Graph, a lower number is better than a higher one. This is the opposite of Beyer Speed Figures.”

I was right in that Essential Quality’s Thoro-Graph number for the Kentucky Derby did turn out to be the best of anyone in the race.

Medina Spirit? Three horses -- Essential Quality, Hot Rod Charlie and Mandaloun -- recorded a better Thoro-Graph number in the Kentucky Derby than Medina Spirit.

It’s a lot easier for me to pick against Medina Spirit in the Preakness when, according to Thoro-Graph, not one, not two, but three horses ran a better race than the Florida-bred Protonico colt in the Kentucky Derby.

Below are the Thoro-Graph numbers for the first seven finishers in the Kentucky Derby:

Finish Horse (Thoro-Graph Number)

4. Essential Quality (negative 1/4)
3. Hot Rod Charlie (1/2)
2. Mandaloun (1 1/4)
1. Medina Spirit (1 1/2)
5. O Besos (3)
6. Midnight Bourbon (3)
7. Keepmeinmind (4)

Below are the Beyer Speed Figures for the first seven finishers in the Kentucky Derby:

Finish Horse (Beyer Speed Figure)

1. Medina Spirit (102)
2. Mandaloun (101)
3. Hot Rod Charlie (100)
4. Essential Quality (100)
5. O Besos (94)
6. Midnight Bourbon (90)
7. Keepmeinmind (90)

Brad Cox trains Essential Quality, who took a five-for-five record and an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male of 2020 into the Kentucky Derby. You may recall what Cox said when asked if he believed that Essential Quality might have been the best horse in the Kentucky Derby because of his wide trip,

“I do,” Cox said. “I think he was the best horse. People can say what they want, but he was beaten a length and ran 68 feet further than the winner.”

Some say that Essential Quality, who moved up to loom menacingly turning for home, had every chance to overtake Medina Spirit when coming down the long Churchill stretch. And that is true. But any way you slice it, it’s also very difficult for a horse to run 68 feet farther than someone and still beat them.

WATCH OUT FOR MIDNIGHT BOURBON

Prior to the Kentucky Derby for Xpressbet, I wrote: “Watch out for Bob Baffert” and Medina Spirit.

For the Preakness, I am saying watch out for Midnight Bourbon.

Much has been made (and rightfully so) concerning Rock Your World’s messy start in the Kentucky Derby as the 9-2 second favorite. It took him out of his game. He finished 17th in the field of 19 for his first career loss after winning the Grade I Santa Anita Derby by 4 1/4 lengths over none other than Medina Spirit.

But Midnight Bourbon also was taken out of his game in the Kentucky Derby when he broke flat-footed and lost “valuable early position,” as Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman put it.

Countdown to the Crown’s Jeremy Plonk wrote that Midnight Bourbon’s “instant tardiness got him entangled with Dynamic One and the hind end of Hot Rod Charlie, which took the potential front-runner out of his game and helped change the complexion up front for the eventual winner.

“To his credit, Midnight Bourbon did not go thrashing and become overly aggressive in makeup mode,” Plonk continued. “That’s what you might have expected, so it was positive to see him settle into Plan B. He was pushed out into the three path around the clubhouse turn and tipped widest of all once straightened onto the backstretch. That kept him in the clear, while Mike Smith got him back in touch into the four path on the far turn. He ran on decently through the stretch in a better-than-looks effort, given where he was supposed to be in the running early.”

As far back as 14th at one point, Midnight Bourbon improved his position in the final four furlongs to finish sixth.

Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen trains Midnight Bourbon, a Kentucky-bred colt by Tiznow, the only two-time winner of the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic. Asmussen has won the Preakness twice, first with Curlin in 2007, then with the filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009.

Don’t take Crowded Trade or Risk Taking lightly this Saturday. They are trained by Chad Brown, who won the 2017 Preakness with Cloud Computing.

Crowded Trade is light on experience. He has just three career starts under his belt. But I think he has a fair amount of talent, which is why I’m picking him fourth in the Preakness.

After finishing second in Aqueduct’s Grade III Gotham Stakes when he lost by a scant nose on March 6, Crowded Trade finished third in the Grade II Wood Memorial at the Big A on April 3.

Risk Taking won Aqueduct’s Grade III Withers Stakes on Feb. 6, then never threatened and wound up seventh as the 2-1 favorite in the Wood. Brown has talked about how he believes the longer distance of the Preakness than Risk Taking’s previous races should suit him. Risk Taking was scratched from last Saturday’s Grade III Peter Pan Stakes, a 1 1/8-mile race around one turn, to run instead in the Preakness.

I think Keepmeinmind is someone to keep in mind as someone capable of getting into the superfecta Saturday. Last in the field of 19 for the initial six furlongs of the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky-bred Laoban colt then came on with a fine run to finish seventh for trainer Robertino Diodoro.

It is true that Keepmeinmind, like Super Stock and Caddo River, was no match for Concert Tour in the Rebel. Keepmeinmind finished sixth in the Arkansas Derby, eight lengths behind Concert Tour.

But in fairness to Keepmeinmind, the Rebel was his 2021 debut after he had missed some training prior to that when Oaklawn was hit by severe winter weather. I think it’s possible for Keepmeinmind to make some noise at Old Hilltop on Saturday.

I also see Rombauer as a candidate to finish fourth or better this Saturday. Trained by Michael McCarthy and based at Santa Anita, the Kentucky-bred Twirling Candy colt won the El Camino Real Derby on synthetic footing Feb. 13 at Golden Gate Fields in his 2021 debut. Rombauer then ran third to Essential Quality and Highly Motivated in Keeneland’s Grade I Blue Grass Stakes on dirt April 3.

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll consists of the same 10 horses as last week.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 310 Mystic Guide (27)
2. 250 Charlatan (5)
3. 187 Knicks Go (1)
4. 184 Colonel Liam
5. 181 Monomoy Girl
6. 138 Gamine
7. 132 Letruska
8. 116 Maxfield (1)
9. 84 Shedaresthedevil
10. 51 Domestic Spending

Medina Spirit’s time atop the NTRA Top 3-Year-old Poll was short-lived. As expected, he moved to No. 1 following his May 1 Kentucky Derby victory. But after the announcement last Sunday that he had not passed his post-race drug testing, he slides to No. 4 this week, replaced in the top spot by Mandaloun, who finished second in the Kentucky Derby.

The Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 277 Mandaloun (6)
2. 275 Essential Quality (8)
3. 250 Hot Rod Charlie
4. 215 Medina Spirit (18)
5. 184 Malathaat (1)
6. 99 Concert Tour
7. 80 Midnight Bourbon
8. 77 Jackie’s Warrior
8. 77 Rock Your World
10. 474 Life Is Good (1)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:38 AM

Chris Fallica

Hilltop Stakes: Tracy Flick (6/1)

Dinner Party Stakes: Bye Bye Melvin (10/1)

Preakness: Crowded Trade (10/1)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:38 AM

Ed Stanco

Medina Spirit (2/1 or better)

Midnight Bourbon (7/1 or better)

Keepmeinmind (15/1 or better)

Crowded Trade (15/1 or better)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:39 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

May 15, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a competitive 14-race card ready to roll with the feature coming in Race 9, the Arthur Cutler Memorial Trot with a $141,250 purse. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

On Friday, the drivers with the hottest hands with two wins each were Ake Svanstedt, Doug McNair and Trevor Miller. Ake Svanstedt was the leading trainer with three trips to the winner's circle. The front end was the place to be as speed held throughout the program.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-Rocknificent (8-1)-Toscano trainee makes its 4-year-old debut coming off a very sharp qualifier. Zeron should have her forwardly placed and hasn't missed the board in 9 Big M starts with 4 wins. This is a tough test but offers some value, the post fits her style and will expect a big try coming off the bench.
5-Soho Burning Love A (5/2)-The King barn sends out 2 formidable entries (4-5) and this gal was Tetrick's choice. Seven-year-old comes off 2 sharp wins on smaller ovals, draws well and has 2 pictures in 6 starts in East Rutherford.

Race 7

1-Amigo Volo (7/2)-Winner of >$900K as a 3-year old makes its season debut coming off a good qualifier on 5-8 at M1. Expecting a big effort and for Dunn to benefit from starting on the rail. But not liking the winless record at the Big M in 6 starts.
2-Get Legs (4-1)-Team Miller trainee has been super consistent hitting the board in all 9 starts this year with 7 wins. Hasn't faced this type of company so there is cause to pause. But will use at a square price and not sell short. There is no telling how good this 4-year-old could be.
5-Rich And Miserable (10-1)-Buter trainee has taken pictures in 35% of starts and can compete with this crew from this post. Came close to beating #7 back in February from the 8-hole. Mark Mac can provide a good steer and could be overlooked at the windows.
7-Scirocco Rob (3-1)-Rob has been off since 4-24 and he has shown the ability to come up with a big try after a rest. Has the gate speed to fire out and get on the engine or in the pocket behind #1. Looks like a player in a tough race.

Race 8

1-No Lou Zing (3-1)-Made a sparkling 4-year-old debut with a 149.3 gate to wire score with a 26.4 last quarter. This is a sterner task and Lou will need to bring his A-game but best to not overlook.
5-Warrawee Vital (4-1)-Closed in 25.3 in season debut and it wasn't enough to catch a strong winner. That was also the 1st time at Big M and this will be the 2nd race for the Coyne barn. Could be sitting on a big try and Tetrick should have in play from the start.
6-Captain Barbossa (7/2)-Dunn steered in last but now he drives #1 and regular pilot Joe B is back between the pipes. Has a perfect 2-2 start as a 4-year-old and that streak could continue. The fractions should be lively which could help the Captain stalk and roll by down the lane.

Race 9

3-Guardian Angel As (5-1)-Tossing last at ScD from the 8-hole but it could serve as a nice tune-up. This looks like a great spot for Tetrick to blast out. Seven-year-old has big gate speed and should get on the engine or find a close-up seat. Looks like a threat to take a picture in the 2nd start this year.
7-Lindy The Great (3-1)-Not sure this Team Miller trainee will make it a 3-peat to start his 4-year-old season but it's possible. Even though this field is far better than the last two starts it's best to not overlook. The big names start outside and are coming off qualifiers. Lindy hasn't banked over $1,000,000 without being very talented.

0.50 Early Pick 4

2,5/1,2,5,7/1,5,6/3,7
Total Bet=$24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:39 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 5/15/21

May 15, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click Here Today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Back Ring Luck; 4-Barraza; 7-Man Friday

Forecast: Back Ring Luck was out of his element in the Santa Anita Derby-G1 but fits well with this allowance optional claiming band of 3-year-olds, and in a race begging to be won from off the pace the Malibu Moon gelding should be capable of sitting off the leaders and then producing a late run. Barraza, first off the claim for V. Cerin, stretches out for the first time and will take them as far he can. There are a few others who could try similar front-running tactics but if he can shake loose early he might get brave late. Man Friday, third in the Singletary Stakes over this course and distance last month, doesn’t have any real style other than as a front-runner and with the lead likely to be taken today the D. O’Neill-trained colt may have to try something different. Perhaps against this group he can settle early and rally late, so we’ll include him in our rolling exotics but only as a saver or a back-up.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Synthesis; 3-House Limit

Forecast: Synthesis, freshened since late February, returns protected in this starter allowance main track middle distance event and in his current form should be good enough to win again. The J. Mullins-trained gelding is guaranteed a ground-saving, pace-stalking trip from his good rail post position and warrants his role as the 8/5 morning line favorite. House Limit is worth including as well. First off the $25,000 claim at Keeneland by R. Hess, Jr., the lightly-raced six-year-old gelding makes his first start since October but has trained like he’s fit and ready. He can be tough as a pace-presser or a mid-pack closer, so U. Rispoli can assess the pace flow and then choose his strategy. The First Defence gelding is a bit slower on pure numbers than Synthesis but with his best effort he’ll be right there.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-Laurel River; 3-The Chosen Vron

Forecast: We’ll pass the four-runner Laz Barrera S.-G3 for 3-year-olds while using the two favorites in our rolling exotics. Laurel River earned a huge figure breaking his maiden and has come back to work sharply, so a forward move is likely. His main foe, The Chosen Vron, handled a state-bred stakes field in good style when last seen in early April and has trained sharply since. He’s not as quick as Laurel River but this extended sprint distance works in his favor. It should be a good race – to watch.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Shell Shock; 4-Fi Fi Pharoah

Forecast Fi Fi Pharoah had a poor trip when failing at 90 cents on the dollar in a maiden state-bred sprint last month. She stumbled at the start, lost early position, produced a mid-race rally but then paid the price late. The W. Solis-trained filly certainly can do better today while stretching out for the first time, removing blinkers, and switching to U. Rispoli. The connections don’t inspire confidence but this daughter of American Pharoah is good enough to beat this field. Shell Shock likely will make the running and if not policed early could take this field a very long way. She exits a hot sprint and has back numbers that can win. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:48 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Bold Endeavor; 4-Heywoods Beach

Forecast: Heywoods Beach lost more ground than he was beaten by when a close third in a similar event last month and with better racing luck today at this 10-furlong trip the J. Sadler-trained colt seems primed for a major effort. Bold Endeavor, second in the same race that ‘Beach just finished third in, is a genuine and consistent performer with three prior wins over the local main track. He may be the controlling speed, but certainly doesn’t need the lead to win. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Heywoods Beach on top.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:18 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Liar Liar

Forecast: Liar Liar was nosed out in a tougher starter’s allowance event over this course and distance last month and nothing more will be needed to beat this $50,000 optional claiming field. He’ll enjoy a ground-saving trip from the rail and should be along in time. However, at 6/5 on the morning line, the Irish-bred colt won’t offer any wagering value other than as a short price rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:17 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Big Andy; 5-Pistachio Princess; 10-Half Hoping

Forecast: This maiden claiming state-bred extended sprint for fillies and mares requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Half Hoping is nicely drawn outside in her first outing in more than two months, and this cut back in trip combined with the addition of blinkers should provide her with every opportunity to earn her diploma. She has numbers that have risen with each start and are better than par for this level, so we’ll put her on top. Big Andy, stakes placed twice as a 2-year-old, returns in a realistic spot, will race without blinkers and as a first-time Lasix user so there’s no reason she shouldn’t fire a good shot. Pistachio Princess suffered a nose defeat three runs back at this level charts and then was pitched too high in her two most recent starts. She’s 12-1 on the morning line and probably is better than that.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:49 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Wedding Groom; 6-Goldini

Forecast: Goldini is a first-time gelding adding blinkers and shortening up from a series of two-turn grass races. The son of Goldencents has rising speed figures and projects to draft into a good stalking position and then have his chance to seal the deal in the final furlong. With a good couple of recent workouts to sharpen him up, the D. O’Neill-trained sophomore seems the solid top pick. Wedding Groom is worth including somewhere on your ticket at 8-1 on the morning line. A first-off-the-claim for D. Blacker, the son of Hard Spun is bred to improve on turf and gets his first chance while also sporting the route-to-sprint angle. The son of Hard Spun has worked well for his new connections, so a career top effort is a possibility.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:20 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-I Will Not; 4-Howbeit; 8-Good With People

Forecast: Good With People is cozily drawn outside and should enjoy an ideal pace-pressing trip in this first-level allowance optional claiming sprint. A very good second to The Chosen Vron in the Echo Eddie S. in early April, the son of Curlin to Mischief is fast on figures and has finished first or second in six of nine career starts. I Will Not needs to overcome the rail but if he can avoid trouble the son of Square Eddie should be the one to fear most. He’s a not a need-the-lead type but has enough speed to secure a good stalking position and make his presence felt late. Howbeit, runner-up under these conditions last month and a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, should at least get a piece of it and is worth including as a back-up on your rolling exotic ticket.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:51 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Harbored Memories; 3-Lincoln Hawk

Forecast: Harbored Memories shortens to a sprint and has the perfect style for this six and one-half furlong grass course. The M. Puype-trained colt, runner-up to subsequent Santa Anita Derby-G1 winner Rock Your World under these conditions on New Year’s Day, won’t need anything better than that performance today to graduate. Lincoln Hawk is an intriguing Irish invader making his U.S. debut for R. Baltas. The work tab is relatively light but should have him fit enough to fire a good shot for a barn that does very well with these European imports. The main push goes to Harbored Memories, but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:39 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #4
Picks Notes
#1 Angel of Freedom She has only raced evenly so far in sprint races, but that might transfer well to the move around two turns for a very capable barn with this type.
#6 Witch Moon She has never raced on fast dirt, but she has been working fine over the footing in the mornings here. She still looks more like a turf horse to me, but she's right in the mix here if she handles the dirt in the P.M.
#4 Fi Fi Pharoah She was a disappointment last time out, but she's capable of something better than that try and brings a solid route pedigree with her to this.
Race Summary Angel of Freedom is bred to handle the added ground today, and it's not a rare occurrence to see an even-running sprinter like this have success while moving around two turns.

Santa Anita - Race #7
Picks Notes
#9 V Bucks Debuter finds a field without serious standouts, and she's going for a barn that does decent work with this kind of firster. ML price would be appealing.
#10 Half Hoping She's probably the one to beat, but she's had a few chances and she has a real claim on this one while adding blinkers on the cutback.
#1 Supersonic Flyer She would have been in the mix for top call if she hadn't drawn the rail, as she has some appeal here with blinkers. Think the trip might be too tricky.
Race Summary V Bucks doesn't appear to be a star, but she won't have to be to compete with this group. Get a good look at her on the tote and on the track.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Littlebitamedal Think this one has some mid-range price appeal. The two-back score was really sharp, but he was bet off the board last out despite getting a terrible race flow on paper. Better here with a more honest setup as he's protected off the claim -- encouraging.
#4 Howbeit He has some versatility from close range, and he might be best served by settling in just behind the slightly sharper speed players. Want him on the tickets.
#1 I Will Not He might be able to work out a pocket trip while sitting right up near the splits from the inside draw, and he's not a surprise at all if he lands this.
Race Summary Littlebitamedal won't ruin my day if I'm wrong, but he'll make my day if I'm right. He's not up for sale off the claim, and while I would have liked to see at least a little bit more, his last can be mostly forgiven with the terrible race shape he got.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:39 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#3 KEYSTONE STEAM Tons best, disqualified, take right back in same spot.
#1 GIVEN UP TERROR Up for third in split race that timed 4/5 faster, draws rail.
#2 A REAL MIRACLE Early leader against top one, interfered with, crossed the line third.
Race Summary Keystone Steam rushed up between rivls in the third quarter, benefited from a breaker at the top of the stretch, but was much the best before he was disqualified. He returns in the same condition and should win with a duplicate effort. Play 3-1 and 3-2 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 MADELINES CRAYCRAY Going well right now, tested open company, rail a plus.
#4 PRETTY SAMMIE No threat in faster division of split race, plagued by bad posts prior.
#5 OFFICIALLY MY WAY Sustained second-over rally to defeat co-faves, takes class hike.
Race Summary Madelines Craycray won twice from the second-tier, then posted her top speed figure last out against better. She draws the rail and is worth 9-2 in her current form. Play a 1 with 4, 5 with ALL trifecta.

Meadowlands - Race #14
Picks Notes
#9 ROCKIN RAMBARAN Classy 11yo did well to hold second on class rise to this level.
#1 TJ BLAST Often in the hunt, romped two back, moves outside in.
#7 JUSTIN CREDIBLE Seized the moment after 1-to-5 fave was KO'd by broken equipment.
Race Summary Rockin Rambaran relinquished the lead to the runaway winner but didn't lose ground after a :26.4 third quarter and fought gamely to finish second. He has enough speed to get early position from a difficult post and win for the 57th time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:40 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#4 Lauda Speed Comes off impressive score, which followed a third in the Hutcheson; clearly talented and getting better. Leads a dynamic Saffie Joseph Jr.-trained trio (including the next two below).
#5 Moonlite Strike Set the pace and tired in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway after a good third in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby; can press throughout.
#5 Collaborate Crushed maiden two back and tired to fifth in the G1 Florida Derby; would not be a surprise in this one.
Race Summary Lauda Speed is becoming an impressive sprinter and has the acceleration to put himself in a good spot here; can fight off his stablemates for the win.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#1 Pacific Princess Was third in a good optional claiming at Tampa and lands in a good spot here; can battle it out from the inside post.
#5 Dem a Wonder Was second the last time she was on dirt and then failed on the turf; back to the dirt and big player here.
#7 Corey Was an easy winner last time and was claimed by D'Angelo; goes for her third start and can get a good stalking run from the outside.
Race Summary Pacific Princess is lightly raced and is improving; Sutherland can have her in good position and she can performed well in this spot.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11
Picks Notes
#3 Belle Laura Has been in a string of Grade 3 races and hit the board in two of those; drops to a non-graded spot and can get back to winning form.
#3 Morning Molly Was second in the G2 Hillsborough at Tampa Bay Downs and was cruising along until a dull effort in her latest; turns back in distance and can be a factor throughout.
#6 Bienville Street Won the Sunshine Filly and Mare Turf here in January and didn't fire in her last two; has a chance to carve out a good trip.
Race Summary Belle Laura has run well in graded stakes races and should be tough to beat going a mile vs. this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 08:40 AM

The Wizard

Preakness Play :
* Win bet on (5) MIDNIGHT BOURBON*
Smaller saver win bet on (6) ROMBAUER at 12-1 or higher*
Exacta box (3) MEDINA SPIRIT, (5) MIDNIGHT BOURBON & (6)ROMBAUER = $12 for a $2 wager*
Trifecta 3-5-6 over 3-4-5-6-9-10 over ALL = $60 for a $0.50 wager*
Trifecta 3-5-6 over 3-4-5-6-9-10 over 3-4-5-6-9-10 = $30 for a $0.50wager*
Trifecta box 3-5-6-10 = $12 for a $0.50 wager

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-15-2021, 09:25 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (200033) West Ham at (200034) Brighton & Hove Albion
Sport/League: SOC (See all free soccer picks)
Date/Time: May 15, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Both Teams to Score - Yes (-125)
We like Both Teams to Score on Saturday in the matchup between West Ham and Brighton over in the EPL.
West Ham have been money to the Overs and BTTS this season, but we're getting some value on this line because of the scoring blank they drew against Everton last time out.
We don't expect that to continue however as West Ham games have seen a league-high 62.86% of all their games this season go Over the 2.5 mark.
Add on the fact that West Ham on their travels have seen another league-high 41.18% of all their road games this season see both teams convert in the 1st half alone, and this line looks low for that to continue over 90 minutes on Saturday.
Over the last seven H2H's between these two teams, both teams have combined for an average of 3.43 goals per game, so we expect even more goals here on Saturday and more importantly, for both teams to get on the scoresheet in this one.
Take Both Teams to Score - Yes on Saturday between West Ham and Brighton over in the EPL.
PLAY: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE - YES -125