Saturday 6/26/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:27 AM

MLB

NL games
Philadelphia (35-38) @ Mets (39-32)
— Eflin is 0-4, 5.08 in his last six starts.
— Phillies are 5-8 in his starts.
— over 7-6
— allowed run in first inning: 4-13
— record in first 5 innings: 4-6-3
— He is 3-4, 5.00 in 12 starts vs New York.

— Phillies are 2-5 in their last seven games.
— Phillies are 21-14 at home, 14-24 on road.
— under 8-3 last 11 games.
— scored run in first inning: 25-73
— record in first 5 innings: 27-29-17

— deGrom is 6-1, 0.52 in his last nine starts.
— He hasn’t thrown more than 85 pitches in his last seven starts.
— Mets are 9-3 in his starts.
— under 7-4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-12
— record in first 5 innings: 8-3-1
— He is 8-1, 2.25 in 18 starts vs Philly.

— Mets are 4-7 in their last 11 games.
— Mets are 12-5 in their last 17 home games.
— under 15-6-1 last 22 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 16-71
— record in first 5 innings: 36-27-8

Colorado (31-45) @ Milwaukee (43-33)
— Senzatela is 1-3, 5.59 in his last five starts.
— Rockies are 4-10 in his starts.
— under 3-1-1 on road.
— allowed run in first inning: 3-14
— record in first 5 innings: 3-9-2
— He is 1-0, 3.00 in four starts vs Milwaukee.

— Colorado won six of its last ten games.
— Rockies are 25-16 at home, 6-29 on road.
— under 3-1 last four road games.
— scored run in first inning: 24-76
— record in first 5 innings: 29-37-10

— Houser is 1-0, 3.27 in his last four starts.
— Milwaukee is 8-5 in his starts.
— over 7-5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 6-13
— record in first 5 innings: 5-7-1
— He is 0-0, 4.50 in two starts vs Colorado.

— Brewers won five of their last six games.
— Milwaukee lost three of its last four home games.
— under 3-2 last five home games.
— scored run in first inning: 23-76
— record in first 5 innings: 33-26-17

Atlanta (36-39) @ Cincinnati (37-37)
— Anderson is 1-0, 2.20 in his last three starts.
— Braves are 8-6 in his starts.
— over 7-7
— allowed run in first inning: 4-14
— you’re reading armadillosports.com
— record in first 5 innings: 5-6-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Cincinnati

— Braves are 7-10 in their last 17 games
— Atlanta is 5-9 in its last 14 road games.
— under 4-1 in last five games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-75
— record in first 5 innings: 37-27-11

— Castillo is 1-2, 2.55 in his last four starts.
— Reds are 3-12 in his starts.
— over 10-5
— allowed run in first inning: 8-15
— record in first 5 innings: 4-9-2
— He is 1-1, 3.86 in three starts vs Atlanta.

— Cincinnati lost six of its last eight games.
— Reds are 5-2 in last seven home games.
— under 3-0 last three home games
— scored run in first inning: 20-74
— record in first 5 innings: 30-31-13

Washington (36-37) @ Miami (32-43)
— Corbin is 2-0, 1.88 in his last two starts.
— Nationals are 8-6 in his starts.
— over 8-6
— allowed run in first inning: 7-14
— record in first 5 innings: 6-5-3
— He is 5-3, 3.80 in 13 starts vs Miami.

— Washington won 10 of its last 12 games.
— Nationals split their last ten road games.
— over 3-0 last three games
— scored run in first inning: 21-73
— record in first 5 innings: 30-28-15

— Thompson is 1-2, 2.25 in three starts.
— Marlins are 1-2 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Washington.

— Marlins are 3-8 in their last 11 games.
— Miami is 9-7 in its last 16 home tilts.
— under 10-7-1 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 16-73
— record in first 5 innings: 28-31-14

Pittsburgh (28-44) @ St Louis (36-40)
— Brubaker is 0-2, 3.86 in his last three starts
— Pittsburgh is 4-9 in his starts.
— under 10-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-13
— record in first 5 innings: 4-8-1
— He is 0-2, 6.75 in two starts vs St Louis this year.

— Pirates won five of their last seven games.
— Pittsburgh is 2-11 in its last 13 road games.
— over 9-4-2 last 15 road games
— scored run in first inning: 21-74
— record in first 5 innings: 22-41-11

— Wainwright is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
— Cardinals are 7-7 in his starts.
— under 8-6
— allowed run in first inning: 3-14
— record in first 5 innings: 5-5-4
— He is 17-7, 4.17 in 37 starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Cardinals lost seven of their last eight games.
— St Louis won four of its last six home games.
— Under is 7-4-1 in their last 12 games.
— scored run in first inning: 25-76
— record in first 5 innings: 29-34-13

Arizona (21-56) @ San Diego (46-32)
— Kelly is 1-1, 5.57 in his last four starts.
— Diamondbacks are 5-10 in his starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 5-9-1
— He is 6-2, 2.92 in nine starts vs San Diego.

— Arizona lost 20 of its last 21 games.
— Arizona lost its last 24 road games.
— over 4-0 last four road games
— scored run in first inning: 13-77
— record in first 5 innings: 25-47-5

— Lamet is 1-2, 3.00 in eight starts (27 IP).
— Padres are 3-5 in his starts.
— under 6-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-8
— record in first 5 innings: 3-5
— He is 2-2, 5.54 in five starts vs Arizona.

— Padres won their last eight games.
— San Diego is 9-4 in its last 13 home games.
— over eight of last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 23-78
— record in first 5 innings: 30-35-13

Cubs (41-34) @ Dodgers (45-30)
— Mills is 1-1, 3.38 in three starts.
— Cubs are 2-1 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He gave up 2 unearned runs in 2 IP, in a relief stint vs Los Angeles.

— Cubs won three of their last five games.
— Chicago is 5-8 in its last 13 road games.
— Under is 17-8 in their last 25 games.
— scored run in first inning: 22-76
— record in first 5 innings: 35-32-9

— Urias is 2-2, 7.01 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 11-4 in his starts.
— over 11-3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 10-4-1
— He is 1-1, 3.38 in 4 games (2 starts) vs Chicago.

— Dodgers lost four of their last five games.
— Dodgers are 6-3 in their last nine home games.
— under 5-0 last five home games
— scored run in first inning: 20-76
— record in first 5 innings: 39-26-11

AL games
Baltimore (24-52) @ Toronto (38-36)
— Akin is 0-3, 10.54 in his last three starts.
— Baltimore is 1-4 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 0-3-2
— He is 0-0, 4.91 in two starts vs Toronto.

— Orioles lost 14 of their last 16 games.
— Baltimore is 12-26 on the road, 12-26 at home.
— over is 26-13-1 in their last 40 games.
— scored run in first inning: 24-76
— record in first 5 innings: 23-39-14

— Ryu is 1-1, 3.32 in his last three starts
— Toronto is 8-6 in his starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 5-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-1
— He is 2-0, 2.52 in four starts vs Baltimore.

— Blue Jays won five of their last six games.
— Toronto lost five of its last six home games.
— over 9-6 last 15 home games
— scored run in first inning: 24-74
— record in first 5 innings: 34-30-10

Angels (36-39) @ Tampa Bay (46-31)
— Cobb is 4-0, 3.90 in his last five starts.
— Angels are 8-2 in his starts.
— over 7-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-10
— record in first 5 innings: 5-4-1
— He is 0-5, 3.76 in seven starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Halos lost their last four games.
— Angels are 7-11 in last 18 road games.
— over 13-4 last 17 games
— scored run in first inning: 21-75
— record in first 5 innings: 32-33-10

— McClanahan is 0-2, 5.71 in his last four starts.
— Rays are 6-4 in his starts.
— under 6-4
— allowed run in first inning: 3-10
— record in first 5 innings: 3-4-3
— He threw 4 scoreless IP, in his start vs Anaheim.

— Tampa Bay lost 7 of its last 10 games.
— Rays are 15-3 in last 18 home games.
— over is 7-4-1 in last 12 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 25-77
— record in first 5 innings: 31-27-19

Houston (47-28) @ Detroit (32-43)
— Valdez is 4-0, 2.22 in his last four starts.
— Astros are 4-1 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 5-0
— He allowed 4 runs in five IP, in 2 games (1 start) vs Detroit.

— McCullers is 1-0, 2.45 in his last five starts.
— Astros are 7-4 in his starts.
— over 7-4
— allowed run in first inning: 1-11
— record in first 5 innings: 6-4-1
— He is 2-2, 5.95 in four starts vs Detroit.

— Astros won 11 in row, 19 of their last 23 games.
— Astros are 9-2 in their last 11 road games.
— over 9-2 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-75
— record in first 5 innings: 42-22-11

— Peralta allowed 5 runs in 5 IP in his first ’21 start.
— Tigers are 0-1 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1
— He gave up 7 runs in 7.1 IP, in four games (1 start) vs Houston.

— Mize is 1-1, 3.50 in his last six starts.
— Tigers are 8-6 in his starts.
— under 12-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-14
— record in first 5 innings: 6-5-3
— He threw 7 shutout IP, in his one start vs Houston.

— AJ Hinch manages against team he led to World Series title.
— Detroit is 3-4 in its last seven games.
— Detroit is 3-5 in its last eight home games.
— over 11-4 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 15-75
— record in first 5 innings: 7-4 last 11 at home

Bronx (40-35) @ Boston (45-31)
— Montgomery is 1-0, 5.93 in his last six starts.
— New York is 10-3 in his starts.
— under 7-6
— allowed run in first inning: 6-13
— record in first 5 innings: 4-7-2
— He is 1-0, 4.13 in six starts vs Boston.

— New York won seven of its last ten games.
— New York is 5-4 in its last nine road games.
— over 11-5-1 last 17 games
— scored run in first inning: 19-75
— record in first 5 innings: 29-30-16

— Eovaldi is 0-2, 4.96 in his last three starts.
— Red Sox are 9-6 in his starts.
— under 8-7
— allowed run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 9-4-2
— He is 2-2, 3.30 in 10 games (7 starts) vs New York.

— Boston is 8-6 in its last 14 games.
— Red Sox are 12-5 in their last 17 home games.
— over 10-6 last 16 games
— scored run in first inning: 26-76
— record in first 5 innings: 34-30-12

Kansas City (33-41) @ Texas (28-48)
— bullpen game

— Royals lost 14 of their last 18 games.
— Royals are 4-11 in their last 15 road games.
— over 9-3-2 last 14 road games.
— scores run in first inning: 15-74
— record in first 5 innings: 27-38-10

— Gibson is 2-0, 1.94 in his last seven starts.
— Texas is 9-5 in his starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 4-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-4-3
— He is 9-5, 3.99 in 23 starts vs Kansas City.

— Texas lost 12 of its last 17 games.
— Texas is 13-12 in its last 25 home games.
— over 8-4-1 last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 16-76
— record in first 5 innings: 25-40-11

Cleveland (41-32) @ Minnesota (32-43)
— Hentges is 0-1, 6.27 in five starts (18.1 IP).
— Indians are 4-1 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-1
— He gave up 3 runs in 3 IP, in a relief stint vs Minnesota.

— Cleveland is 14-9 in its last 23 games.
— Indians are 10-8 in last 18 road games.
— over 25-14 last 39 games
— scores run in first inning: 27-73
— record in first 5 innings: 28-33-12

— Maeda is 2-0, 4.40 in his last six starts.
— Twins are 3-8 in his starts.
— over 6-5
— allowed run in first inning: 1-11
— record in first 5 innings: 3-4-4
— He is 3-1, 2.51 in five starts vs Cleveland.

— Minnesota won six of its last eight games.
— Twins are 4-7 in their last 11 home games.
— over 15-5-1 last 21 home games
— scores run in first inning: 28-75
— record in first 5 innings: 24-34-17

Seattle (40-37) @ White Sox (44-31)
— Gilbert is 2-0, 3.18 in his last three starts.
— Mariners are 5-2 in his starts.
— over 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 5-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Chicago.

— Seattle won nine of its last 11 games.
— Seattle is 4-6 in its last ten road games.
— over 7-2 last nine road games
— scored run in first inning: 24-77
— record in first 5 innings: 36-35-6

— Lynn is 0-2, 5.29 in his last three starts
— Chicago is 7-6 in his starts.
— under 7-4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-13
— record in first 5 innings: 9-2-2
— He is 3-1, 2.53 in five starts vs Seattle.

— Chicago lost six of its last seven games.
— White Sox are 14-5 in last 19 home games.
— under 10-4-2 last 16 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 22-75
— record in first 5 innings: 41-20-14

Interleague games
Oakland (46-32) @ San Francisco (49-26)
— Montas is 2-5, 5.75 in his last seven starts.
— A’s are 8-7 in his starts.
— over 9-6
— allowed run in first inning: 5-15
— record in first 5 innings: 7-5-3
— He hasn’t pitched against San Francisco.

— A’s lost five of their last seven games.
— Oakland is 10-8 in its last 18 road games.
— Over is 8-5 in their last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 24-78
— record in first 5 innings: 35-29-14

— Wood is 1-3, 7.50 in his last six starts.
— Giants are 7-5 in his starts.
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 2-12
— record in first 5 innings: 5-4-3
— He is 1-2, 7.04 in three starts vs Oakland.

— Giants are 15-5 in their last 20 games.
— Giants are 10-2 in last 12 home games.
— Over is 6-3 in their last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 21-75
— record in first 5 innings: 42-22-11

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:32 AM

Race of the Week: Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs
June 24, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$600,000 GRADE 2 STEPHEN FOSTER AT CHURCHILL DOWNS
Saturday, June 26, 2021

The Lead:
The Breeders' Cup Classic division begins to take some summer shape Saturday when the Grade 2 Stephen Foster anchors a 12-race card that includes 7 stakes races. As Race 11 on the program, the Foster is set for 5:59 pm ET. The 1-1/8 miles contest has been won in contemporary times by superstars like Curlin, Blame and Gun Runner after debuting in 1982.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner MAXFIELD carries the biggest credentials. He's joined by Grade 2 winner CHESS CHIEF and multiple Grade 3 winners WARRIOR'S CHARGE and SILVER DUST. A Foster victory puts any of these over $1 million in lifetime earnings. The other 5 entrants have a class ladder to climb.

Pace:
WARRIOR'S CHARGE is a committed front-runner and can be expected to show speed with a clean break. EMPTY TOMB with an inside post 2 draw should be part of the mix under speed rider Ricardo Santana Jr. VISITANT should show speed from the outside 9-hole draw, as could SPRAWL. The pace figures to be very solid for 1-1/8 miles.

Our Eyes:
Since his debut in 2019 at Churchill, we've heaped praise on MAXFIELD. He popped a 102 BRIS late pace figure that day in a 1-turn mile to catch the eye. Since, well, he's fired 101-106 late figs almost without fail and is just a horse who wants to beat you. His average win margin since his debut has been almost 3 lengths. He was flat in the Santa Anita Handicap in the only true road trip of his 7-race career, suffering his only loss. But he's back home at Churchill, where he's 3-for-3, and trainer Brendan Walsh has been on a tear at Churchill in recent weeks.

MAXFIELD rolled by 3-1/4 lengths in the local Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes on Kentucky Oaks Day, drawing away from Foster rivals VISITANT and CHESS CHIEF. In the re-match, CHESS CHIEF is the more appealing player with the pace expected to be more contested and VISITANT drawing wide. That should soften up the Alysheba runner-up and help the cause for its third-place finisher CHESS CHIEF. I like the rider change from Luis Saez (riding out of town in the Ohio Derby) to John Velazquez on CHESS CHIEF. The more patient pilot should fit the closing style of CHESS CHIEF better, though both riders are of an elite level. Just, style-wise, Johnny V might suit him better.

WARRIOR'S CHARGE didn't break and didn't fire in a monsoon road trip to Texas last time. The Brad Cox trainee should rebound in a return to his home track. He's the classiest of the speed horses, though 9 furlongs does stretch his speed farther than optimal. He'll take them as far as he can under Florent Geroux and will be at the mercy of how quickly EMPTY TOMB goes inside of him and VISITANT outside of him.

SILVER DUST was third in the 2020 Foster to Tom's d'Etat and By My Standards, arguably a tougher edition of this race than what we'll see Saturday. He exits a win in the 9-furlong Ben Ali at Keeneland that should set him up nicely in his third start off the layoff. He's consistently run well over the dirt at Churchill and would seem a highly reliable top-4 type vs. these.

NECKER ISLAND and SOUTH BEND are kind of parallel beings among the 4-year-old class. Their running styles, resumes and schedules look an awful lot alike. Both have had success at Churchill Downs though were well beaten in last year's Kentucky Derby on Labor Day weekend. They're difficult to separate, but the red-hot roll by trainer Chris Hartman in the past several weeks in Louisville could tilt favor slightly to NECKER ISLAND.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
All signals point to MAXIFELD. He'll be a short price and deservedly so.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
The broader national simulcast audience for a card like this may not be as inclined to hammer Chris Hartman's horses as the everyday Churchill players have come to expect. NECKER ISLAND hasn't been a big factor on the bigger stages, so his form there could create an overlay. At 12-1 or 15-1, he's interesting in the exotics.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
Let's straight punch this with a $100 exacta MAXFIELD over CHESS CHIEF ($100).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:33 AM

Eddie Olczyk: Saturday Spot Plays | June 26, 2021

June 25, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk

Eddie Olczyk: Saturday Spot Plays | June 26, 2021

NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk pinpoints a trio of plays from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs for his Saturday best. Follow Edzo’s plays each week.

Belmont Park

Race 7 // 4:06 pm ET // allowance // 1-1/4 miles (turf)

#5 Dynadrive (6-1 ML)

Class-dropping heavy favorite Rockemperor is looking for an easier spot, but Dynadrive is placed where he belongs in this allowance condition for Mike Maker. Some of his best races have been over the Belmont grass. Hope is that he’ll get enough pace to run down late. Win bet.

//

Belmont Park

Race 10 // 5:44 pm ET // maiden special weight // 6 furlongs (turf)

#2 Quick Conversation (6-1 ML)
Six-wide in his last 2 races, the post 2 draw for Quick Conversation should be a benefit as he tries to rally under Joel Rosario. Could get a good trip tucking inside rail-speed Milestone Payment. Win bet.

//

Churchill Downs

Race 10 // 5:26 pm ET // Grade 2 Wise Dan Stakes // 1-1/16 miles (turf)

#8 Field Pass (5-1 ML)

Defaulted to the lead last time over a longer trip, but should be more relaxed with a chance to pounce over a more suitable distance. Course stakes winner finds a bit easier spot than his previous 2 tries of 2021. Win bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:33 AM

Stephen Foster Stakes Post Draw Rapid Reaction
June 23, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s Grade 2 $600,000 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs attracted 9 entrants, led by once-beaten Maxfield, who looks to top the $1 million mark in career earnings. The Foster is one of seven stakes in Louisville on Saturday with first post 12:45 pm ET on a 12-race card.

Late-running Maxfield drew post 8 and can improve his local record to 4-for-4, having won at Churchill in 2019, 2020 and earlier this year in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes. Red-hot trainer Brendan Walsh has won with 8 of his last 19 starters at Churchill Downs and again will employ the services of jockey Jose Ortiz.

Leading the opposition will be front-running Warrior’s Charge, who likely sets the tone from post 6. The early mix also should include Visitant (post 9), who led the Alysheba nearly all the way before giving way to Maxfield last time out. The outside draw for Visitant could increase the tempo and set the table nicely for the favorite Maxfield.

Silver Dust (post 5), last year’s Foster third-place finisher, exits a hard-fought victory in Keeneland’s Ben Ali over the same mile and one-eighth distance. Like Maxfield, both Warrior’s Charge and Silver Dust could top the $1 million lifetime mark in the Foster as a multiple Grade 3 winners.

The Saturday lineup also includes the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis (featuring star 2021 Distaff division leader Letruska), Grade 2 Wise Dan, Grade 3 Bashford Manor and the listed Debutante, Tepin and War Chant.

Churchill Downs // Race 11 // Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes // 5:59 pm ET // 1-1/8 miles

1. Chess Chief (John Velazquez)
2. Empty Tomb (Rafael Santana Jr.)
3. Necker Island (Mitchell Murrill)
4. Sprawl (Brian Hernandez Jr.)
5. Silver Dust (Adam Beshcizza)
6. Warrior’s Charge (Florent Geroux)
7. South Bend (Tyler Gaffalione)
8. Maxfield (Jose Ortiz)
9. Visitant (James Graham)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:34 AM

Gulfstream Mandatory Rainbow 6 Analysis & Selections

June 24, 2021 | By Johnny D

Heading into Friday’s card, Gulfstream Park’s Rainbow Six pot will be guaranteed at $650,000. If there’s no single winning ticket that day, Saturday’s pot will be huge and worth firing at. That’s mainly because Saturday the Hallandale emporium will empty the till in a mandatory payout. Gulfstream folks have been sitting on this egg for 13 days; May 29 was last time it was ‘single ticketed’ for roughly $400k. Saturday, the egg finally hatches. Everything must go! Pick six consecutive winners and you share in the pot.

If you’ve been playing along in Gulfstream’s Rainbow Six since May 29, then Saturday is withdrawal day, hopefully, with interest. If you haven’t been playing along at home, then Saturday’s your chance to win a share of everyone else’s money.

Below is one man’s humble opinion regarding Saturday’s Gulfstream Mandatory Rainbow Six Payout, followed by a suggested Rainbow Six ticket. Selections are for a fast track and a firm turf course and have been made before scratches and don’t include analysis for Main Track Only or Also Eligible runners.

Gulfstream Race 7
3:23 pm ET

#1 Personal Meadow
He will show speed from the rail and will have to be caught to be defeated. Foes have accomplished that in the gelding’s last three races at this level. What’s different Saturday is that two of those previous failures came at six furlongs and one at seven furlongs and this race is at five and one-half panels. Trainer Oscar Gonzalez is just 1-26 with 4 seconds and 5 thirds, so that doesn’t inspire confidence. Jockey Jaramillo is a solid ‘speed’ jock, batting 22% and has been aboard this one for two runner-up efforts last two times out.

#3 The King Aquiles
This gelding has a trouble line from his last race, but it really was more a factor of him not keeping up with the leaders. He appeared to re-rally a bit after changing leads and that’s encouraging. The effort was his first on dirt after five consecutive turf tries on top of a horrid first out at Delaware Park. He is racing at the $12,5k level for the first time from $16k.

#4 Nketiah
Has just two starts under his belt and was claimed for $16k last out when eighth of eight on turf. Before that he was fifth of seven in a Tampa Maiden Allowance race. He’s shown some speed in those races. New trainer Jorge Delgado hits at 22% and is 33% first of the claim, He’s also 30% out of 10 tries with jockey Morelos. The slight drop in class off the claim isn’t a troubling move for a winning barn. Too many positive stats to ignore this one.

#10 Dream of Warrior
This guy drops from $20k to $12,5k and shortens from six furlongs to five and one-half panels. He has some speed and will need to use it from the far outside. Zero-for-six seven pound apprentice rider Calles gets this one ‘in light.’ Top jock Edgard Zayas previously rode this gelding in all four races and they managed to finish second, beaten four lengths in their penultimate try at the $35k level. Beyer Speed Figures for all four races fit in here and it should be noted that two of those were on turf. In light, dropping in class and sporting competitive speed figs all give this one an outside look.

Must Use: #1, #4
Extras: #3, #10

Gulfstream Race 8

#3 Kartano
This gelding brings the best resume of all into this race. That includes a solid third, beaten less than two lengths, last out in the English Channel at this track over this distance. Before that he was third and second, respectively, beaten less than one length in each race. He graduated from the maiden ranks at the $25k level after a slow start and wide rally. Jockey Edgard Zayas tries has hand for the first time. Beyer Speed Figures fit well, too. Kartano has enough speed to be within striking distance. Must be used.

#4 Fuego Caliente
He exits a race common to four others in here. He didn’t fare well in that outing but was second going seven and one-half furlongs the time before and fourth, beaten less than one length, at one mile at this level. Victor Lebron rides for the first time. The colt has had eight tries and broke maiden for $25k here at this distance in his third start. He’s a reach on the win end.

#5 The Best Distance
Winner of just 1 of 13, he showed speed and faltered badly in the common race to four others. He’d be difficult to play off of that poor effort, but he did win a maiden allowance race going seven and one-half furlongs one before that with a suitable speed rating. Not for us.

#7 Tellington
Finished second and best of those coming out of the common race at this level on May 31. He’s had just three starts and has won two of those with one second; an admirable record in here. One of those wins came first out at the maiden $25k level and the other against fellow 3-year-olds for $20k. He was claimed out of that race by 29% winning trainer Saffie Joseph and has been ridden the last two times by 22% winning jockey Jaramillo. He’s difficult to ignore in here.

#10 Todaystheday
This colt has a superb record over the Gulfstream Park turf with two wins, three seconds and one third in seven starts. He will be trying a new trick today by being asked to stretch out from five furlongs to one mile and one-mile and one-sixteenth. He has a win at this level sprinting and has shown the ability to close there. From this outside post, 21% winning jockey Edwin Gonzalez will ask this guy to show speed. He’ll need to do better than he has before, but he has some angles in his favor. He’s a bit of a reach.

Possible Single: #3
Next Best: #7

Gulfstream Race 9

#1 Sandy Dune
A drop from maiden $20k to maiden $12,5k and a stretch out from six furlongs to one mile did this one some good as he finished second, beaten just one length. That was his best finish since a runner-up effort first time out for maiden $35k in January. If that most recent effort can be repeated, he fits. Otherwise, there are some poor performances, granted at higher levels, that must be overlooked to like this one’s chances from the rail going seven furlongs.

#2 Boldness
Often, in races like this at the lower maiden claiming levels, the least exposed runner deserves a long look. In here that horse would be #2 Boldness, who has made just one start at the maiden $25k level. In that race, he broke a bit slowly from the rail, rushed up, appeared to be getting out a bit on the turn, was checked from between horses and was not asked late. That experience, a class drop and a screw tightening or two might make this one a threat in here. It’s a bit of a negative to see that jockey Gonzalez does not return, but Jaramillo certainly can get the job done on the front end.

#3 Kathern’s Joy
This gelding has been second in his last two starts and a runner-up in all three of his main track appearances—all at seven furlongs. He’s got three poor two-turn turf races on his resume and they darken his overall form. He has improved Beyer Speed Figures since his first start in November—a total of six races. He added Lasix for the first time last out. Low percentage jockey and trainer stats aren’t encouraging but, based on his trio of runner-up finishes at the distance, he deserves a look.

#7 Staten Island
He dropped to the maiden $12,5k level last out and switched to the main track for the first time at seven furlongs. Changes did him good, as the he was barely touched out for second while finishing over three lengths behind the winner. It was an OK effort and he steps up one notch in class for this maiden $16k heat. He should be fit as his most recent race was June 20. He’s interesting but not overwhelming in a bit of a scramble.

Must Use: #2, #3, #7
Maybe Add: #1

Gulfstream Race 10

#1 Mr Tito’s
This 4-year-old gelding is one of two in here (#5 Easy Stride is the other) coming off last-out victories and they always deserve second glances. This guy has five in the money finishes in 10 Gulfstream turf starts, including two wins. Low profile connections of trainer Jennifer Young and jockey Luis Reyes ought to guarantee a price. The rail is a great place from which to start going one mile at Gulfstream. His recent Beyer Speed Figures are very competitive.

#3 Wise to Listen
This 6-year-old has just two wins in 17 starts and is a longshot to win this. He has back Beyer Speed Figs that make him tough, but he hasn’t touched those in a while. His last race can be forgiven because it was on dirt for 18% trainer David Fawkes and 22% winning jockey Edwin Gonzalez—who rode #1 Mr Tito’s to victory last out and failed 3/5 favorite #9 Calabash to a fourth placing and now ends up here! Why? He is 22% out of nine mounts for Fawkes, but that’s not overwhelming. This guy’s a real reach, but sometimes following breadcrumbs get you home first.

#5 Easy Stride
With two wins in just five starts over the Gulfstream Park turf course, this 4-year-old colt seems poised to parlay a victory in his last race into another top effort. If he does that, he’s got a chance to win this race. Trainer Steve Dwoskin bats at a solid 20% and jockey Vasquez combines with him to hit with 17% of 52 starters. This guy’s no standout, but he’s sharp, likes the course, fast enough and in the hands of capable connections.

#7 Kramden
Second in a $12,5k non-winners of three races—his first try at that level—this 4-year-old gelding probably is one of two (#9 Calabash is the other) that will take some beating in here. He plied his trade at Tampa in a variety of races at around this level and won a $16k non winners of 2 there going one mile on grass. Trainer Mark Casse is winning at 25% and jockey Jaramillo hits at 22%. Together they’re batting 18%. It should be noted that he comes out of a common race with #9 Calabash, who was favored in that tussle at $.70-to-1, while Kramden was dispatched at $10.40-1 odds. The former broke from the far outside post in the eight-horse field and the latter had the rail post position.

#9 Calabash
This 4-year-old gelding was less than even-money favorite at about this level last time out while finishing a disappointing fourth, beaten nearly four lengths. From the outside eight post, at the break Calabash was taken back to last where he raced most of the way until swinging very wide for a meager finish. He’s probably better than that. That was the gelding’s first start for 29% winning trainer Saffie Joseph, so improvement was anticipated. Unfortunately for his connections, he’s drawn the far outside post again. Expect a more aggressive ride this time from jockey Diaz, replacing Gonzalez. Diaz and trainer Joseph are an excellent 32% with 19 mounts.

Must Use: #7, #9
Also Use: #1, #5
A Real Reach: #3

Gulfstream Race 11

#3 Brett’s World
Claimed for $35k out of a 4-horse maiden race, two races later, this 3-year-old gelding won two for a maiden $20k tag going one mile. He beat just two home last out when fifth at the $20k non-winners of two level. He showed speed that afternoon and probably will again in here under jockey Jaramillo for 22% winning trainer Robert Dibona. The class relief ought to help. Overall, the gelding is one for four over the Gulfstream main track and seems to fit in here.

#4 Braccio Di Ferro
This 3-year-old gelding emerges from the same race as #3 Brett’s World and finished roughly two lengths better than that one. They both have had eight career starts with one win. Class drops out to help. Braccio Di Ferro doesn’t have as much speed as #3 Brett’s World and is more of an even-styled runner. 21% jockey Gonzalez replaces Zayas in the saddle (goes to #7 Gege Conquest) for low percentage trainer Jose Angelo. Together they have one win in five starts. Don’t fancy this one as much as #3 Brett’s World.

#7 Gege Conquest
He’s the third one in here dropping from the $20k level down to $12,500 and he exits the same race as #3 Brett’s World and #4 Braccio Di Ferro. He’s just one for 13 with three seconds and three thirds over the Gulfstream main track, so a minor award seems most likely. His main positive is that he’s finished well in front of #4 Braccio Di Ferro on a couple of occasions.

#8 Union Gap
This 3-year-old colt has won three races in a row and that many in five starts over the Gulfstream main track. He posted the fastest Beyer Speed Figure in the race last out and will break from the far outside in the number 8 post position. It’s always scary to pass on horses with winning records against less statistically impressive foes but there may be reasons to do that in here. This horse will be making a substantial jump in class from $6,250 non-winners of three races to $12,500 non-winners of two. That’s a bit of a leap upward. Also, he was claimed from his last two races—originally from Saffie Joseph for $6,250 in May and from Jorge Delgado for $6,250 in June. Both of those trainers hit at about 22%. Union Gap will be making his first start off the claim for trainer William Tharrenos and, while he’s a capable 1-5 at the meet, Tharrenos is 0-14 first off the claim. Also, Union Gap has won his last three while racing from off the pace at distances from six to seven furlongs. Going one mile he likely won’t get as hot an early pace to close into and his late kick may be somewhat muted. Drawn on the far outside in post eight, he may be forced to go around several foes for a late run. Bottom line: he’s a winner and such horses are difficult to ignore, however, there are reasons to look elsewhere in this race.

Use: #3
Add? #4, #7, #8

Gulfstream Race 12

#3 Lord Darley
He ran evenly last out to finish third in a race common with #11 William Boy and #12 Juguete. He had to wait a bit behind horses turning into the lane and that may have cost him a bit as the leaders got the jump on him. He’s tried this level twice on turf and just missed by a neck at 71-1 one back. Chantal Sutherland rides for red-hot Roger Laurin and they bat 29% together.

#5 M V Speed
This gelding looks interesting off two turf races for trainer Amando De La Cerda. He set the pace last out before fading late and being passed by #3 Lord Darley. He could have the lead, the rail and 22% winning jockey Jaramillo nursing him along. Note: Trainer De La Cerda and the jock are 24% from 42 starts! Wire-to-wire threat.

#6 Kick in the Gas
He ran well enough in his first start for maiden $35k for previous trainer Christophe Clement. The colt tumbles to maiden $12,500 level for 29% trainer Saffie Joseph and that ought to be enough to get the job done. Blinkers will be added. Jockey Zayas and Joseph are a powerful 28% together. Joseph also has top notch stats for first race after trainer change 23%; 61-180 layoff 22%; first time blinkers 23%. The immediate drop is a bit concerning but Joseph’s not afraid to run them where they belong. Lots of strong stats.

Use: #3, #5, #6

The Ticket
Gulfstream $.20 Rainbow Six ($57.60)
Race 7: #1, #4
Race 8: #3
Race 9: #2, #3, #7
Race 10: #1, #5, #7, #9
Race 11: #3, #4, #7, #8
Race 12: #3, #5, #6

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:34 AM

Jon White's Ohio Derby Picks

June 24, 2021 | By Jon White

Congratulations to Thistledown for enticing such a strong group of 11 in this Saturday’s Grade III Ohio Derby. Among the 11 entrants is a Grade II winner in Keepmeinmind and a pair of Grade III winners in King Fury and Promise Keeper.

Promise Keeper is the lukewarm 7-2 morning-line favorite, according to horseracingnation.com. Keepmeinmind is 4-1. King Fury is 9-2.

Contention runs deep in that there are a number of others who have a license to win this 1 1/8-mile event. Indeed, my top pick is not one of the aforementioned graded stakes winners, but rather someone who has the look of an up-and-comer.

My selections for this year’s Ohio Derby are below:

1. Masqueparade
2. King Fury
3. Proxy
4. Promise Keeper

Top pick Masqueparade is listed at 8-1 on the morning line. I am going with him to win the Ohio Derby largely off his stellar victory last time out.

This will be Masqueparade’s stakes debut. The Kentucky-bred Upstart colt lost his first three career starts, then did not even cross the finish line in front when graduating from the maiden ranks.

In a Fair Grounds maiden race at 1 1/16 miles on March 20, Masqueparade finished second, a half-length behind Alejandro. Irad Ortiz Jr. rode Alejandro for Hall of Fame horseman Steve Asmussen. Miguel Mena piloted Masqueparade for trainer Al Stall Jr.

Following a stewards’ inquiry and an objection by Mena, Alejandro was disqualified and placed second for causing interference to Masqueparade when the two made contact in deep stretch.

Masqueparade then was dazzling in his next start at Churchill Downs on the May 1 Kentucky Derby undercard.

Facing allowance/optional claimers at 1 1/8 miles on May 1, Masqueparade lurked in third early after breaking from the outside post in a field of 10. He poked his head in front midway on the far turn when three wide, then drew off to win by 11 3/4 lengths.

Masqueparade took a giant leap in the Beyer Speed Figure department when credited with a 97 on May 1. His previous top Beyer had been an 81 in his maiden win on March 20 via Alejandro’s DQ.

If Masqueparade runs anything like he did on May 1, he has an excellent chance to win the Ohio Derby. Hence, he is my top pick. But it’s also possible that he will regress, aka bounce, this Saturday when coming off such a career-best performance.

King Fury had created a buzz going into the Kentucky Derby. He went into the Run for the Roses off an 18-1 upset in Keeneland’s Grade III Lexington Stakes on a sloppy track April 10.

Ten lengths off the pace early in the Lexington, King Fury closed furiously to take command turning into the stretch and splashed home a 2 3/4-length winner.

What had many people on the King Fury bandwagon for the Kentucky Derby was the splendid way he had trained up to that race. Unfortunately, after being entered, he was scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to spiking a fever.

Trainer Kenny McPeek has been high on King Fury all along. It looked like big things might be in store for the $950,000 Curlin colt when he won the Street Sense Stakes at the 2020 Churchill Downs last year on Oct. 25.

But King Fury did not show much in his next two races. He ran seventh in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland on Nov. 6, then finished fifth in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill on Nov. 28 in his final start at 2.

King Fury’s stock rose again in April with his victory in the Lexington, which was especially impressive in that it was his first start of the year.

One possible negative for King Fury if he had run in the Kentucky Derby is he would have been racing again just three weeks after his big effort in the Lexington. But there is no such quick turnaround to be concerned about for him in the Ohio Derby.

A FRESH PROXY IS DANGEROUS

Proxy, who has yet to win a graded stakes race, was my choice to win the Grade II Louisiana Derby on April 10. I thought he might step up and take that 1 3/16-mile race after having finished second in both the Grade III Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 16 and Grade II Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 13.

However, Proxy never threatened in the Louisiana Derby. He finished fourth for owner-breeder Godolphin and trainer Michael Stidham.

Nevertheless, I will not be surprised if Proxy has a big say in the Ohio Derby. He is 5-1 on the morning line.

I think it’s possible that we have not seen anywhere close to the best from Proxy yet.

Stidham, as usual, is bringing Proxy along with patience in order to give the Kentucky-bred Tapit colt every chance to develop into a graded stakes winner.

I go back a long way with Stidham. I first got to know him at Louisiana Downs in 1980. With just two horses, Me Good Man and Viterbo, Stidham managed to win multiple stakes at that meeting with them. I knew then that the 23-year-old conditioner had a very bright future as a trainer.

Stidham now is widely recognized throughout the country as an outstanding trainer. And one of the ingredients to his success, I believe, is his patience.

This reminds me of the morning years ago when the late, great Charlie Whittingham told me what he felt all trainers should emphasize as much as possible.

“Patience,” Whittingham said emphatically.

Whittingham was a master at managing a racehorse in such a way that the horse was allowed to develop into the best her or she could be. In other words, the horse was given a chance to reach his or her potential. Indeed, a victory by a Whittingham-trained first-time starter was a racing rarity. The great Sunday Silence was considered by most to be the best horse Whittingham ever trained. Not even Sunday Silence won his first race. For the man known as the Bald Eagle, there was always a much bigger picture to be taken into consideration for a horse than a win at first asking.

When Stidham was a trainer on the Southern California circuit in 1981 and 1982, he closely observed Whittingham and numerous other Hall of Fame trainers. By studying Whittingham, Stidham saw first-hand how being patient in the short term could often pay off handsomely in the long term.

I am confident that Whittingham would give a big thumbs up to Stidham for the way in which he has managed Mystic Guide, another colt from the powerful Godolphin operation.

After Mystic Guide finished third last year in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes on July 16, many a trainer could not have resisted the temptation to run him in the Grade I Kentucky Derby on Sept. 5.

Because 18 were entered in the 2020 Kentucky Derby, a lack of points would not have kept Mystic Guide out of the race if Godolphin and Stidham had wanted to take a shot.

But Stidham exhibited Whittingham-like patience by opting to run Mystic Guide in an easier Sept. 5 race than the Kentucky Derby. Thus, on the same day that Authentic captured the Derby, Mystic Guide won the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga.

In Mystic Guide’s final 2020 start, he ran against older foes in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park on Oct. 10. He finished second to fellow sophomore Happy Saver.

Not asking too much too soon of Mystic Guide last year almost certainly is one of the reasons the Kentucky-bred Ghostzapper colt has done so well this year.

Mystic Guide is two for two in 2021. He won the Grade III Razorback Stakes by six lengths at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 27, then registered a 3 3/4-length triumph in the Group I, $12 million Dubai World Cup on March 27. Mystic Guide currently holds the top spot in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll.

The plan is for Mystic Guide to make his next start in the Grade II Suburban Stakes at Belmont Park on July 3. He likely will get a rematch with the undefeated Happy Saver, who won a one-mile allowance race at Belmont on May 28 in his first start of 2021.

I thought it was a good move by Proxy’s connections to pass the Kentucky Derby with him and regroup after the colt’s disappointing effort in the Louisiana Derby. The feeling here is Proxy has talent. One of the days Proxy might put it all together and run a smasher. Who knows? Maybe “one of these days” will turn out to be this Saturday.

By the way, you might want to keep in mind Proxy is scheduled to race with Lasix in the Ohio Derby. The last time he raced with Lasix, he won a Fair Grounds allowance race back on Dec. 19.

Promise Keeper is still another win candidate in the Ohio Derby. After a 5 1/2-length victory in an allowance/optional claiming contest at Keeneland on April 8, he won the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths at Belmont Park on May 8. Todd Pletcher, voted into the Hall of Fame this year, trains the Kentucky-bred Constitution colt.

Keepmeinmind’s only victory to date came when he won last year’s Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes as a maiden.

Even though Keepmeinmind has not finished better than fourth in four starts this year, do not cavalierly dismiss miss him this Saturday.

Keepmeinmind finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby, but his race was better than it appears at first glance. Last early and as far as 19 lengths off the pace, he came on with good energy in the late stages to finish seventh and lose by 8 1/2 lengths.

In his latest start, Keepmeinmind finished fourth in the Preakness. Though Keepmeinmind lost that race by 9 1/2 lengths, trainer Robertino Diodoro was not discouraged.

“I thought it was a very speed-biased track that day,” Diodoro said in a horseracingnation.com story written by Carolyn Greer. “And he was one of the few horses still running at the end. You always want to get better than fourth, but we were pleased with him. And I keep saying, with some time he’s going to get better. He’s still a big baby. As the year goes on, I think he’s going to develop into a better horse.”

I can’t help wondering, though, if the main track at Pimlico actually was so speed-biased on May 15, then how in the world did Rombauer manage to rally all the way from sixth to win the Preakness?

SEVERAL OTHERS SHOULD NOT BE DISMISSED

The Ohio Derby was first run at Chester Park in 1876. The Kentucky Derby is only one year older.

As far as this year’s edition of the Ohio Derby is concerned, it appears to me that there are several others who could make some noise, such as The Reds (6-1 on the morning line), Ethical Judgement (8-1), Hozier (12-1) and Hello Hot Rod (15-1).

The Reds won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico on May 24 through the disqualification of Excellerator. The Reds then finished second to Sainthood in the Grade III, off-the-turf Pennine Ridge Stakes on a sloppy Belmont Park main track May 29.

Ethical Judgement comes off a 3 1/2-length win in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race on a sloppy Churchill Downs main track May 9. In his only other 2021 start, Ethical Judgement ran second to Fulsome at Keeneland when also competing in a 1 1/16-mile allowance race on a sloppy strip. Fulsome went on to win the Oaklawn Stakes in Arkansas and Grade III Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill.

Hozier now is trained by Rudolphe Brisset after being with Hall of Famer Bob Baffert in Southern California. Highly regarded prior to his first career start early this year, Hozier narrowly lost the Sir Barton Stakes when he finished second at Pimlico on May 15.

Hello Hot Rod finished fourth in the Tesio. But he is eligible to run better this time in that the Tesio was his first start following a layoff. The Tesio was his first race since he had won the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes back on Jan. 31 at Aqueduct.

Channel Fury is 20-1 on the Ohio Derby morning line, but he does have a home-track advantage. He’s coming off a 5 1/2-length allowance win in a six-furlong allowance race at Thistledown on May 24. However, Channel Fury is facing much tougher opponents this time while also being asked to race farther than a mile for the first time.

Falcons Fury, whose morning-line odds are 30-1, rounds out the Ohio Derby field. He appears overmatched.

WITHEE ENTERS WASHINGTON RACING HALL OF FAME

Before the first race at Emerald Downs last Sunday, former track president Ron Crockett announced that Joe Withee has been inducted into the Washington Racing Hall of Fame this year for lifetime achievement.

The announcement was made on the day in which Emerald Downs, located in the shadow of majestic Mount Rainier, was celebrating its birthday. The track’s grand opening occurred on June 20, 1996.

As for Withee’s Hall of Fame induction, it is richly deserved.

Crockett noted during his remarks that “Withee has been a tireless and great advocate for Washington racing while serving the industry with integrity, distinction and nobility.”

Truer words were never spoken.

A Seattle native, Withee has been the director of broadcasting at Emerald Downs since the track first opened. He has interviewed thousands of owners, trainers and jockeys from the winner’s circle. In addition of being the 24-year host of the radio program “The Win Place Show” on KJR 950 AM, Withee has done a terrific job emceeing countless press conferences, award ceremonies and draw breakfasts for the richest race in the Pacific Northwest, the Longacres Mile.

Withee also has been involved in the sport by owning several horses in partnership. One of these horses, Sippin Fire, in 2018 was acclaimed the Washington Horse of the Year and Emerald Downs Horse of the Meeting.

Longacres was the picturesque track near Seattle that preceded Emerald Downs in that part of the country. In many ways, Withee is to Emerald Downs what the late Mark Kaufman was to Longacres or what the late John Asher was to Churchill Downs.

The Longacres Mile, which Crockett kept alive at Emerald Downs, is steeped in history. And what Withee did in 2019 has become part of the race’s lore.

In 2014 profile of Withee written by Scott Hanson, the headline was “Joe Withee has become Washington’s voice of horse racing.”

Well, Withee literally was the voice of the 2019 Longacres Mile. Just before the race was to begin, the sound system at Emerald Down ceased working. That meant track announcer Tom Harris was not able to call the race.

Withee had to step in at the very last minute and call the Longacres Mile from ground level while watching the race on a TV monitor.

It turned out that there was a thrilling three-way battle down to the finish line between heavy favorite Anyportinastorm, Law Abidin Citizen and Restrainedvengence.

Law Abidin Citizen won by a head at odds of 6-1. Anyportinastorm had to settle for second in the field of 11. Restrainedvengence finished third at 26-1. Yes, that’s the same Restrainedvengence who won last Sunday’s Grade III American Stakes at Santa Anita.

Under trying circumstances, Withee did nothing less than a superlative job with his call of the 2019 Longacres Mile.

But then that’s really nothing new. Withee has been doing a superlative job ever since he began his racing career at Longacres many years before the start of Emerald Downs. After Longacres closed for good in 1992, Withee worked at Yakima Meadows before moving on to Emerald Downs when racing there began.

Withee joins a distinguished list of Hall of Fame inductees that consists of the man who built Longacres, Joe Gottstein, plus Ron Crockett, Mark Dedomenico, Robert Geller, Jack Hodge, Pete Pedersen, James Seabeck, Karen and Mickey Taylor, George Todaro, Ralph Vacca and Aaron T. Van de Vanter.

THIS WEEK’S NTRA POLLS

There are no newcomers or changes to the rankings in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 313 Mystic Guide (25)
2. 241 Silver State (1)
3. 231 Letruska (1)
4. 217 Domestic Spending (5)
5. 189 Essential Quality (2)
6. 135 Charlatan
7. 132 Maxfield (1)
8. 109 Gamine
9. 96 Monomoy Girl
10. 34 Knicks Go

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:35 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 26, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, the Meadowlands has a 13 race card set to go and the 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 10. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

2-Atlanta (2-1)-Six-year-old champ makes its season debut coming off 2 qualifiers. Beat Ramona Hill in the last tune-up in 153.3 with a 53.2 back half. Burke trainee looks prepared for a trip to the winner's circle.
6-Forbidden Trade (7/2)-2019 Hambo winner is in fine form, has raced well in all 3 starts this year and should offer a fair price. McClure will need to get a good seat and work a smooth journey to take top honors in a competitive affair.

Race 11

2-Thankful No (5-1)-Smedshammer trainee makes its US debut and this Muscle Hill mare is an interesting option now that Dunn is taking the lines. Should offer a nice price and this barn has won 27% of its starts over the last 30 days.
6-Venerate (2-1)-Julie Miller trainee has banked over $770,000 as a 2-year-old and she makes the 1st start of the year. Has hit the board in all 3 races at M1 with 1 picture. Morning line chalk will be tough to beat if dialed on high.
10-Dancinginthedark M (3-1)-Many will pass on this colt because of post 10. It makes some sense but has raced twice this year here and has won both times. Maybe the breaking issues of last year are in the past. If Tetrick can get this Melander pupil near the top going into the last turn it might be picture time again.

Race 12

2-Ana Malak N (9/2)-Made its M1 debut a winning one last week, got on the engine and didn't look back. Gingras steers tonight and will look for a similar game plan.
3-Father Nuno (3-1)-The padre drops to a spot to shine but is 0-5 at the Big M. Should relish the company and will use with the inside post draw but hasn't raced since 6-6.
6-Ima Real Ladys Man (7/2)-Gingras steered for Cullipher last week and now Tetrick took the assignment at the same class, which got my attention. Faded down the lane in last but has 4 wins here in 17 starts. Tonight, the plan might be to come off cover.

Race 13

2-Stonedust (9/2)-Not sure what to think because of the sick scratch last week. But is back in at the same class and has been facing better. If 100%, this is the right level and post draw to get on the engine and wire this field.
4-A Major Omen (6-1)-Hasn't started the year with a bang and is 0-6, but should offer a solid price and the chalks start outside. Needs a trip and Callahan should put into play early on. Does good work racing near the top of the stack and that script could be followed here.
8-Gods Spirit N (7/2)-Had a nice try in a fast mile after being scratched sick and missing almost 3 weeks. Comes right back and TMac will be between the pipes again. Should like the company and the start will be key from this post.
9-The Devils Own N (3-1)-This will be the 4th start this year and was hung in a race with quick fractions in last. That didn't work out well and was bet down to 4/5. Should like the company here but this post will be a challenge. It's best to respect in a race without a true standout.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,6/2,6,10/2,3,6/2,4,8,9
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:37 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 6/26/21

June 26, 2021
Every Thursday through Sunday handicapper Jeff Siegel offers his best wagering opportunity from a selected North American racetrack. These “Best Plays” can take the form of a win wager, exacta, trifecta, or a daily double, pick-3, pick-4 or pick-6. Selections are listed in chronological order.

*

Churchill Downs Race 7 – Post time: 3:50 ET
7-Helium (7/2)

Overmatched in the Kentucky Derby-G1 and then a slightly disappointing third when thrust into the role as the pacesetter in the Matt Winn S.-G3, this talented colt makes his first start on turf while dropping into listed company in the War Chant S., a one mile event for 3-year-olds. As a son of the good grass performer Ironicus, he’s bred to step forward considerably with the switch in surface, so if he receives the patient ride he requires with the change to T. Gaffalione, the M. Casse-trained colt should be capable of getting back on the winning track and is a solid play at or near his morning line of 7/2.
*
*
Churchill Downs Race 8 – Post time: 4:22 ET
1-Wicked Halo (4-1)

From the first crop of the Horse of the Year Gun Runner, this precocious filly provided strong evidence of future stardom when breaking her maiden at first asking at Lone Stone Park earlier this month while earning a huge speed figure. In winning with authority and with plenty left in the tank, the S. Asmussen-trained 2-year-old displayed the tools that should allow her to return off relatively short rest and capture this year’s edition of the Debutante S. Today’s extra furlong should be no problem and because she just won from the rail, in her inside post is of little concern. At 4-1 on the morning line, she’s an aggressive play as a win play and in the various rolling exotics.
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Thistledown Race 8 – Post time: 5:04 ET
10-Masqueparade (8-1)

Late-developing colt produced a quantum leap forward when winning a first-level allowance race by nearly 12 lengths with a monster speed figure at Churchill Downs almost two months ago on the Kentucky Derby Day program and has trained extremely well since, so if this colt isn’t just a one-hit wonder he should be capable of withstanding the class hike in this year’s edition of the Ohio Derby-G3. The A. Stall, Jr.-trained sophomore projects to fold into a comfortable second flight, stalking trip outside and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. In a fairly contentious field, he’s sure to offer good wagering value, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll make him a gamble both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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Belmont Park Race 9 – Post Time: 5:12 ET
2-Minaun (5/2)

Irish-bred filly was a breathtaking winner in her U.S. debut in late April when producing an electric late turn of foot to dismantle a first-level allowance field with distain. A Group-3 stakes winner overseas during in a two-race campaign as a 2-year-old, the daughter of Zoffany appears to have exceptional talent and can be expected to score again in this year’s renewal of the listed Wild Applause Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. This stretch out to a mile shouldn’t be any issue at all, so at 5/2 on the morning line the C. Brown-trained import offers excellent wagering value both as a win play and as a rolling exotic single.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:38 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #6

#9 Camp Hope	He will get Lasix for this first start off the bench, but he figures to sit a bit further off the pace today and has some upside into his 3yo season.
#1 Ready to Pounce	Chance here while dropping out of that Matt Winn try behind a pretty nice winner, and he seems like one of the main win threats in here.
#6 Kinetic Sky	Consistent guy has a claim on this, but I worry that he's going to be overbet and might be more likely to land an underneath share.
Race Summary	Camp Hope might be a better horse now than when we last saw him, and he has some room to move forward while racing with Lasix for this layoff run.

Churchill Downs - Race #7

#4 Dyn O Mite	Think he might get overlooked here with a serious chance to bounce back. He was up close to an unfriendly pace in that last one and was bothered late before being wrapped up. Better here.
#5 Royal Prince	He finished up nicely in the same race as the top choice last out, and he can probably sit a bit closer if the splits are softer. Big claim on this.
#7 Helium	Tough read here as he fits really well on form, but his sire is terrible on the turf, so I'll pass on this win threat at a price that likely won't reflect the risk.
Race Summary	Dyn O Mite has some appeal in this one after a race that provides him with a decent excuse. One of his better tries might get the job done here at a playable number.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#3 Tapped Off	He made the first move into a pace that didn't hold up, and he has a big chance to sustain that kind of move better today with the experience under his belt.
#1 Vodka N Water	He went to battle early from the fence last time out, but he might be better served today by tucking back behind the pace and letting things unfold from the pocket.
#2 Lansdowne	He made a serious blitz to open that race up in the lane in the debut score, and he's likely to be right in the mix again with these from the start. Respect.
Race Summary	Tapped Off looks capable of landing a maiden win with this bunch, as he made a nice move into the pace but just couldn't sustain it. He's probably going to draw up a great trip.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:39 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5

#2 MATTICULOUS GB	U.S. invader loves to win, chased the fave in fast heat in latest start.
#1 TORRIN HANOVER	Shuffled behind longshots as lively outer flow swept past, finished well.
#6 SWEET DIESEL	Closed with a rush to just miss at notch below.
Race Summary	Matticulous GB chased the even-money favorite and held second through a :55.1 back half at Hoosier Park. He's 23-49 lifetime, sitting on his first win this year. Play a 1-2-6 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10

#3 HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER	Monster move to bury lesser, longshot stab in deep field.
#6 WHEELS ON FIRE	Won four in a row, three in photo finishes, starts outside.
#4 SINTRA	Loves it here, starts fresh, beat 'Wheels' the last time they met.
Race Summary	Highlandbeachlover swept past the field from post 10 with a powerful third-quarter brush and stayed strong to the end. He's worth a price shot in preferred company if he moves forward in his third start back. Play a 3-ALL exacta.

Meadowlands - Race #13

#2 STONEDUST	Gets class relief, moves outside in, must use in all gimmicks.
#8 GODS SPRIT N	Chased winner through :54.1 middle half, missed in photo finish.
#3 PATERNITY SUIT A	Chased rapid pace at Harrah's Philly as beaten favorite off freshening.
Race Summary	Stonedust scratched last week but fits well at this level with a favorable post switch. He can top $41,000 in earnings this year to become tops in the field. Play a 2-3-8 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 06:40 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#2 Fighting Force	Was fourth in his last two and does his best at two turns; has stakes experience and can be a late player.
#4 Sigiloso	Missed by a nose vs. allowance runners last time in his first since tiring badly in the Florida Derby; good enough to have a legit chance here.
#1 Big Thorn (MTO)	Gets in if it comes off the turf and he would be a formidable foe for these; wins if he's in.
Race Summary	Fighting Force has shown a desire to improve position and is getting better; has been in some outstanding races, and that experience should come in handy.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#2 Heat of the Night	Was third in his first of this meeting and is likely to improve; has been in some strong races since a maiden win at GP in September.
#3 Kartano	Lost a three-horse photo at this level two races back and most recently was a very credible third in the English Channel Stakes; has been right there in each of his four starts and will be a strong factor in this.
#7 Tellington	Was perfect in two starts until his last one, when he was second in his first off the claim by Joseph; usually one to watch late.
Race Summary	Heat of the Night has been in stronger races than this and should fit well here; heads gradually getting back to good form.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11

#8 Union Gap	Beat open bottom claimers last out and goes for his fourth straight win; stretches out to a mile and is a strong choice to win it.
#3 Brett's World	Broke his maiden two back and tried to tackle a higher level than this last time. It didn't work out as he folded up the tent after setting fast early fractions, but will last a lot longer in this one.
#4 Braccio Di Ferro	Ran alongside Brett's World last time and also takes a drop here; was fourth two races back and fits in this spot.
Race Summary	Union Gap has won three in a row and the added distance should not be a problem.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 11:37 AM

BATTAGLIA : Belmont Free Pick

RACE 6

Win Candidates 3-6-4-7 Rating 2 stars

#3 Quasar-opened up a two length lead late but got run down and had to settle for second beaten a length and a quarter while being claimed last out. New connections run her back at the same distance and level and I.Oritz takes over for his brother.

#6 Riding On a Winner-went wire to wire in her debut then finished 5th last out against tougher. She finds an easier field, gets Lasix and runs for sharp 27% winning trainer.

#4 Myawaya-is coming off a year and 4 month layoff for Pletcher but was taking on tougher then. Todd is hitting at a big 29% with his runners coming off a layoff and this one should be in the payoffs.

#7 Cazilda Fortytales- has the speed to make the lead and could hang on for a piece.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 11:38 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows

Prairie Meadows - Race 10	Win / Place / Show / Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Minimum) / Super Hi 5 Jackpot (.20 Minimum)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 58 • Purse: $30,500 • Post: 9:52P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. A J'S RIDE is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * STAR ISLAND KITTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMa ster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SABREEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MISCHIEF MAMA: Horse ranks in th e top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. SHELBY TO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Po wer Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	STAR ISLAND KITTY	10/1	5/1
3	SABREEN	6/1	5/1
8	MISCHIEF MAMA	15/1	8/1
9	SHELBY TO	15/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
11	A J'S RIDE	11	12/1	Front-runner	0	0	55.0	38.9	27.9
3	SABREEN	3	6/1	Stalker	65	52	42.7	49.3	46.3
9	SHELBY TO	9	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	44	58	51.6	47.0	41.5
6	STAR ISLAND KITTY	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	57	50.5	50.5	44.5
4	STREET RINGER	4	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	51	33	45.8	47.7	36.7
7	AQUATICA	7	12/1	Trailer	0	0	37.9	38.9	29.4
12	PRINCESS VITA	12	8/1	Trailer	59	18	29.4	17.1	0.0
8	MISCHIEF MAMA	8	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	64	56	50.9	47.6	40.1
2	NEW YEAR'S CHIC	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	53.8	36.0	22.0

Unknown Running Style: FELONY (5/1) [Jockey: Laviolette Shane - Trainer: Von Hemel Kelly R], THE X FACTOR (6/1) [Jockey: De La Cruz Walter - Trainer: Martin William N], CYCLONE SORORITY (9/2) [Jockey: Gonzalez Elvin - Trainer: Von Hemel Kelly R].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-26-2021, 11:38 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)

Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $2 Rolling Double $1 Pick Three (Races 2-3-4) / $1 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Starter Allowance $8,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 1:28P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021 AND SINCE HAVE NOT WON A CLAIMING , STARTER OR OPTIONAL RACE EXCEEDING $8,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. (ANY RACE AT FIVE FURLONGS OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * TIGER MOM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest Trac kMaster Power Rating. BRILLIANT BIRD: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. STRADARI: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start afte r a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CHARMING ALEXIS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
6	TIGER MOM	3/1	5/1
5	BRILLIANT BIRD	2/1	6/1
4	STRADARI	3/1	6/1
2	CHARMING ALEXIS	10/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	BRILLIANT BIRD	5	2/1	Front-runner	87	79	83.8	73.6	70.6
4	STRADARI	4	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	89	80	87.8	69.2	63.2
2	CHARMING ALEXIS	2	10/1	Alternator/Front-runner	83	78	81.8	70.8	60.8
6	TIGER MOM	6	3/1	Stalker	86	85	82.0	77.6	72.1
3	MUSICALLY	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	78	71	75.8	65.6	57.6
1	BACK BEAUTY	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	84	86.6	69.6	60.6