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Tuesday 7/6/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
I'm taking the Phoenix Suns to win the title, as they've simply been a model of consistency the entire season, and I think will dominate the Milwaukee Bucks in the championship round.
When you look at what the Suns have done all season, it truly is an impressive body of work. You realize they've lost three in a row only one time, and lost two in a row just three times during the regular season. They fell behind Los Angeles 1-2 in the first round, when the Lakers won Games 2 and 3, but the Suns have won 11 of 13 since.
There are so many "about times" on this team, leading with coach Monty Williams, who is as deserving as any other coach in the league after what that guy has been through.
The addition of Chris Paul has provided leadership, the continued proficiency of Devin Booker is finally being appreciated, and the emergence of Deandre Ayton has boosted the offense.
Not that Milwaukee isn't showing its balance, with the likes of Khris Middleton, Jrue Holliday and Brook Lopez coming alive while their star teammate has been sidelined, I appreciate their effort. But I also have seen how the Suns are so diverse and can play a defensive style.
After allowing 109.5 points per game during the regular season, the Suns are giving up just 101.7 points per game during their 11-2 run. They're showing they can beat you at either end and with whatever style you throw at them.
One could argue Milwaukee has adapted the same way, but I also think this team has shown vulnerabilities at times, and the Suns are better suited to exploit that with their lineup and depth.
Tuesday's comp play is the Bucks and Suns to play this opening game of the NBA Finals in the Over column.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo listed as doubtful look for the Bucks to employ the same strategy that carried them to wins over the Atlanta Hawks in the last 2 games of the Eastern Conference Finals and that is to run their offense through veteran Brook Lopez.
Both Games 5 and 6 versus Atlanta did land Over the total as the Bucks have now played 4 of their last 7 in the Over column.
The Suns have also played 4 of their last 7 postseason games Over the posted price and both of their regular season series meetings against the Bucks this season did land Over the total, as the Over between these teams has connected in each of the last 4 get togethers.
The Finals open with an Over in Phoenix on Tuesday night.
While I have a total available for Game 1 of the NBA Finals, my free pick is a player prop.
Phoenix Suns star Deandre Ayton has averaged 11.8 rebounds per game during the postseason. During the Western Conference Final against the Clippers, we really saw his post game come to life, helping the Suns thrive with second-chance opportunities, or on the break.
In the Suns' four victories over Los Angeles, Ayton averaged 15.5 rebounds per game. In the two losses, he grabbed an average of just 10 boards per contest. It's clear what he needs to do, and you best believe with Milwaukee missing Giannis Antetokounmpo, it leaves the Bucks with Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis manning the key. And while both have adapted nicely without the Greek Freak, neither are necessarily known for their Windex skills, like Ayton.
This being the series-opener, and the Suns at home with a chance to make a statement, I'm think Ayton is good for 12-plus tonight.
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