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SEATTLE @ TEXAS | 08/19 | 2:05 PM EDT
TEXAS +1.5
ANALYSIS: Seattle pitcher Chris Flexen has a bloated road ERA, but that's largely because of two early-season blowups. He has been fine away from home since and is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA this year vs. Texas -- all in Seattle. The Mariners are 24-18 (.571) in 42 day games this season. It's Spencer Howard (0-3, 5.61) for the Rangers. Texas has just three wins in its past 14 games and is 1-8 in its past nine Thursday games. Seattle is -135 on the moneyline and Texas -135 on the runline, so since they are the same price I'll take the +1.5 safety net even though I expect the Mariners to win -- just not by more than a run. They also have a big series in Houston starting Friday.
+2952 183-115-6 IN LAST 304 MLB PICKS
+1090 15-4 IN LAST 19 SEA ATS PICKS
+845 10-2 IN LAST 12 TEX ATS PICKS
12:20 PM
FEATURED PICK
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY | 08/19 | 1:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Rays have won 14 of their 15 games against the Orioles this year, and the last three have been by a combined 21 runs. There seems to be little hope that the O’s win this afternoon, but I would never take a -360 line so we will play this on the run line at -175. The Orioles have not covered in any of their last 10 games. I will also be playing a small bit on the alternate run lines to get some better prices. For example, -2.5 is -133 at Caesars.
+376 18-11 IN LAST 29 MLB PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 BAL ATS PICKS
12:04 PM
L.A. ANGELS @ DETROIT | 08/19 | 1:10 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: I’ve been betting on weather-correlated plays all season, and they’ve done well. The weather at Comerica Park should have a solid impact on the Over as the air density is a bit lower than normal and the wind is blowing out. We also have a sub-par pitching matchup, with Angels LHP Jose Quintana making his first start since May as he opposes Detroit RHP Matt Manning. Quintana had a 7.22 ERA through nine starts this year before getting hurt and likely won't work too many innings. Manning has allowed 15 earned runs in his last 20 innings after a pretty good start. Los Angeles is 37-20 on the Over when made the favorite. I like this to be a double-digit game.
+376 18-11 IN LAST 29 MLB PICKS
+175 4-2 IN LAST 6 LAA O/U PICKS
12:03 PM
Game: (913) Seattle Mariners at (914) Texas Rangers Date/Time: Aug 19 2021 2:05 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 3 units Play: Seattle Mariners -155 C Flexen (RHP), S Howard (RHP) Must Start
3 unit Seattle Mariners (-155) over Texas Rangers (Flexen/Howard) –
Chris Flexen has been a bright note on a team that has struggled this year, posting a record just 8 games over .500. Flexen is 10-5 TY with a 3.78 ERA in 22 starts, against Texas this year he has 3 starts, with a 3-0 record and a 2.33 ERA allowing 5 ER in 19.1 IP, striking out 13 and walking only 2, on the road he is 4-1 in 9 starts, and in day games he is 2-0 with a 3.91 ERA. The Mariners have played well in his starts as well, they are 3-1 when he closes out a series, 6-0 in his L6 starts vs. teams under .500, and they are 6-2 in his L8 starts when the team is off a W. Seattle is also 6-0 in the L6 games vs. a RHP, 9-5 in the last game of the series vs. divisional opponents and 10-4 after a game w/ 5 or less hits w/ at least 1 HR while the line is under +185. Texas on the other hand is pitching Spencer Howard, who is 0-3 TY with a 5.61 ERA, he has started 9 games and has came into the game in relief 4 times as well, and his stat line as a starting pitcher is even a little more concerning at home, going 0-2 with a 7.14 ERA, at home in general this season he is 0-2 with a 6.39 ERA, while in day games he is 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA in 13.2 IP. Texas has struggled in general vs. right handed pitching, they are 7-18 in the L25 as a HD vs. RHP (including 4-17 w/ a line > 115), 1-10 in the final game of the L11 series vs. a RHP for a divisional opponent (including 8 losses in a row), they are 8-30 vs. a RHP w/ a ERA under 4.00 and a line over -110, which includes 11 straight losses, 2-16 in the L18, 4-14 @ H (0-6 in the L6 & 1-8 in the L9), and 4-19 vs. the divisional RHP w/ an ERA under 4. The Rangers are also 5-12 in the L17 vs. teams over .500, 0-7 as a HD vs. RHP on a team with an away win percentage under 50%. Texas is also 7-22 in the L29 vs. RHP off B2B L's, 96-161 in the L257 and they have lost 4 straight games vs. RHP as a D after outhitting an opponent in a loss.
Game: (403) Kansas City Chiefs at (404) Arizona Cardinals Date/Time: Aug 20 2021 8:00 PM EDT Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line Play Rating: 4 units Play: Kansas City Chiefs -152
Money LIne 4 units KC -152 Arizona Friday 8 PM ET on Espn
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES | 8/19 | 7:30 P.M. ET
PATRIOTS -1.5
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts looked comfortable in his preseason debut last weekend, moving the ball efficiently down the field. So did Joe Flacco in reserve. And while New England's quarterbacks didn't have the same success as Philadelphia's, its running game did as rookie Rhamondre Stevenson went over 100 yards. The Eagles' defense still is a work in progress, and I would expect the Patriots to have a much better outcome in the second half.
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