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KANSAS CITY @ CHI. CUBS | 08/21 | 2:20 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: This is a weather-correlated play with the wind blowing out at Wrigley and the Air Density Index lower than average. It also does not hurt to have two pitchers who are mediocre at best in Kris Bubic and Keegan Thompson. Thompson is an opener who likely won't finish the third or fourth inning, and Bubic has a .486 xSLG and a 6.10 road ERA. These offenses are both worrisome for Overs, but 1) Kansas City getting an extended look at the Cubs bullpen; 2) a subpar Bubic on the road and 3) good hitting conditions give this enough value at -105.
+1076 25-11-1 IN LAST 37 MLB PICKS
+800 8-0 IN LAST 8 CHC O/U PICKS
12:24 PM
MINNESOTA @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/21 | 1:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
ANALYSIS: Kenta Maeda has a 5.77 ERA on the road compared to just 2.13 at home. Gerrit Cole has looked sharp in his return and should limit the Twins while the Yankees continue to sound off. Maeda has allowed 14 HR on the road in just 64 innings, and the Yankees have scored five or more runs in eight of their last 10 games. Plus, only once in the last 24 meetings between these teams has the game been decided by one run. Run line is the way to go.
+1076 25-11-1 IN LAST 37 MLB PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 MIN ATS PICKS
+100 2-1 IN LAST 3 NYY ATS PICKS
11:57 AM
1 #18 Kyle Busch (+650) - He only has one Cup win at Michigan, which is very surprising considering he has four wins at Fontana, which is almost the same layout as Michigan. The reason he offers so much value this week is that he's been the best collectively on the tracks using the high downforce race package with engines producing only 550 horsepower. Kyle Larson has led the most laps with it, but Busch has both his wins using it and has finished in the top-five in the last seven races using it after starting the season with a 10th-place at Homestead in February. He's beat Larson head to head in the last three races using this week's race package and Larson will likely be a -165 favorite over Busch on Sunday in head-to-head matchups. Might as well bet that too.
2 #5 Kyle Larson (+300) - Even before Larson was dominating NASCAR, he was winning at Michigan. He won three straight Michigan races in 2016-17. But he's been better with the 750 HP package, which has been raced 14 times already. He'll be great here rim-riding around the top of the track, but isn't attractive at 3-to-1 odds offered by Caesars Sportsbook when Kyle Busch is rated higher with this package. Scout around for the best odds if betting Larson to win.
3 #9 Chase Elliott (+750) - In 10 Michigan Cup starts he has a 7.7 average finish, which is best among active drivers. He's only had two top-five finishes in the eight races using the high downforce package and the last one was a runner-up at Charlotte in late May, which is the last time Larson won with this package.
4 #48 Alex Bowman (20/1) - This is the bet I'm most excited about this week after two weeks of inactivity due to the Olympics taking over NBC and two weeks of dreadful road course racing. His last start using the high downforce package was at Atlanta, where he finished fourth and was the top Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. Before that he was seventh at Pocono after leading 18 laps, and before that he won at Pocono leading 16 laps.
5 #2 Brad Keselowski (12/1) - He's from Michigan, so he should have an edge, right? No, he's had a few heartache losses there, but no wins in 23 Cup starts. Last season he was runner-up in the Saturday race (two races, same weekend). He has seven top-fives at Michigan overall. I'll be betting him in a few driver matchups because he's been very competitive with this week's race package. He was third at Pocono after leading a race-high 31 laps. He was runner-up in the non-points All-Star Race at Texas, and he was runner-up at Las Vegas.
901) New York Mets at (902) Los Angeles Dodgers
Game: (901) New York Mets at (902) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Aug 21 2021 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 1%
Play: Dodgers First to Score and Win
This is an unusual prop but we get plus money for it because the Dodgers must score first and win the game. The money line is far too high of odds to take but since the Mets bat first the price is good. Max Scherzer is on the mound with a 0.7 WHIP I think the chances are very high he holds the Mets for a few innings. Alonzo is the only batter who is a threat. This is a great price for this prop.
(921) Seattle Mariners at (922) Houston Astros
Game: (921) Seattle Mariners at (922) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Aug 21 2021 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 1%
Play: Houston Astros -1.0 (-105) L Gilbert (RHP), J Odorizzi (RHP) Must Start
Jake Odorizzi gets a bad rap but he is actually a pretty good pitcher at home. In his career he holds the Mariners to a low batting average .188 but he has allowed 5 HRs in 60 ABs. His numbers are night and day home and away I think he will be ok at home. Logan Gilbert has one great start in his last 5 but in his other 4 starts he has allowed 15 runs. The Astros are #1 against LHP, #1 against RHP, the best team in the last 30 days and are on a roll. Take them on the -1 alt run line. If they win by 1 it is a push.
(911) Philadelphia Phillies at (912) San Diego Padres
Game: (911) Philadelphia Phillies at (912) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Aug 21 2021 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 1%
Play: San Diego Padres -1.0 (-120) A Nola (RHP), J Musgrove (RHP) Must Start
Musgrove has been great at home and in his career has held these batters down. Nola, on the other hand, has been awful on the road. The Padres have the bullpen, form, lineup and every other advantage here so take them on the alt -1 run line. If they win by 1 it is a push. If you do not have a -1 then take them on the money line.
Handicapper: Brian Bitler
League: NFL
Competition: New York Jets vs Green Bay Packers
Time: Saturday, August 21, 04:25 pm ET
Bet Type: Point Spread
Pick: New York Jets -2.5 (-105)
Analysis:
Well well well the Jets are favored at the Packer you know this will bring the square pattys out of the wood work to bet the Packers but the Packers just are not a deep team and they are facing a hungry Jets team with a lot of positions for the players to fight for in the preseason. We saw what the Packers backups did at home versus a weak Texans team this Jets team is much better. Big money guys win this easy and we will join them. Let’s not forget either that Jordan Love is questionable and Kurt Benkert stinks IMO. Play on the New York Jets minus all points here rotation #409
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