Sunday 9/5/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 06:19 AM

Al Cimaglia: NFLD Super Night All-Stakes Pick 5 Analysis

September 5, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
It is Super Night at Northfield Park with eight Ohio Sires Stakes Finals to be decided and each has a $300,000 purse. The $1.00 All-Stakes Pick 5 starts in Race 6. The sequence will have a $20,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

2-Summer Touch (5/2)-Went a 56.1 back half at ScD in last but still missed catching #6 who raced a big mile from post 8. This time the trip should be much different. Could get the pocket behind the chalk and take a big shot down the lane.
3-Smothastenesewisky (8/5)-Doesn't need to lead from the start to finish to win but will likely gun for the top. This colt has won 5 of 6 at NFLD and has held its own versus older Open company. Won't offer any value but best to respect.
6-Dragons Lucky Lady (8-1)-Has raced only once here finishing 2nd but has been on fire at ScD, winning 5 of 8 and came 2nd twice. This horse grinds, the post draw shouldn't hinder him badly as long the pace is hot and that should be the case.

Race 7

1-Gabbys C Note-As long as the trip is decent, and Gabby minds her manners she should be the winner. This Beaver trainee appears to be at another level. There probably isn't anyone else in the field that could lead from start to finish and trot in 156.0 or faster.

Race 8

1-Cape Cod Hanover (2-1)-Beat #2 last time with some good gate speed to get control and she didn't have a post edge. Page usually steers but he drives the 9/5 morning line favorite #8. Looking to beat the chalk in this leg and David Miller knows how to win these races.
2-Hotshot Temptress (9/2)-This filly is no slouch and should be forwardly placed throughout. Using and counting on Merriman to keep her in play at a solid price.
4-Dragon Lady (7-1)-Taking a swing with this price shot and she might have enough gate speed to get the top in front of stable mate #1 and then yield for a pocket ride. My guess is the 7-1 morning line might end up being low and is worth a play. Using instead of Sea Silk, who doesn't appear to have the gate speed to get a smooth trip. If she beats me from the far outside with the that much speed on the rail, so be it.

Race 9

1-Caviar Gold (5/2)-Here's another Beaver pupil that draws the rail, has the gate speed to get the top and not look back. This is not an automatic picture but figures the be a main player.
2-Chulo (9-1)-Engblom trainee broke in last at 1/5. That's the 1st miscue in 6 starts and was the 1st race at NFLD. The price is right and Gingras will most likely do what he does and that is gun for the top. Price play might have enough gate speed to get the point and surprise.
7-Gabbys Bit Coin (3-1)-Just missed in last at ScD after working to get the lead and suffered the 1st loss in 4 starts. This is another Beaver pupil with a chance at the top check. The post is an issue but will help the price. This freshman is handy and Wrenn could provide a sharp steer.

Race 10

3-Charlie May (3/5)-Charlie has turned into a prime-time player and then some. If not for a DQ in the Med Pace he would have booked over $750,000 in earnings this year. Many will single with Chewbacca drawing to the outside. The one consideration to not do so is this colt doesn't have explosive gate speed but is so powerful it usually doesn't matter on the smaller ovals. Winner of 3 in 4 tries here is the main player but my guess is #8 has the lead around the opening turn.
8-Heart of Chewbacca (8-1)-Really has no choice but to blast out and hope to secure the point without using up too much gas. Then the next part of the winning formula is to hope Charlie doesn't get a smooth trip. Using and hoping for more juice in the Pick 5 payout.

$1.00 Pick 5

2,3,6/1/1,2,4/1,2,7/3,8
Total Bet=$54

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 06:21 AM

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis - Sunday, September 5, 2021

September 5, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Head for Business; 5-Wearenotbadpeople; 7-Irrestibly Sexy

Forecast: Wearenotbadpeople may have been a tad short when flashing good speed from his rail draw and then staying on well to be second in a state-bred maiden-special-weight sprint last month. An also-eligible scratch from a straight maiden turf dash two weeks later, the R. Hanson-trained gelding shows up in a maiden $50,000 seller today while making a significant jockey switch to E. Maldonado, so at this slightly shorter trip we’re expecting the son of Clubhouse Ride to be step forward and graduate at or near his morning line of 5/2. For protection, you may want to toss in on a backup ticket Head for Business and Irresistibly Sexy, the two-three finishers in a maiden $20,000 affair last month. The former pressed the pace and hung on for second in a good effort while earning a career top speed figure while the latter, making his racing debut, was very sluggish to be far back early but took hold late and made up a considerable amount of ground through the lane, though it may have been an optical illusion-type late kick.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Civil Suit; 5-V Bucks

Forecast: V Bucks was a voided claim for $40,000 vs. straight 3-year-olds when a good runner-up while more than four lengths clear of the rest in late July and returns for P. Miller in a maiden $25,000 affair that is well within her range, assuming she’s healthy enough to fire her best shot. Today restricted (nw-2) affair is open to older fillies and mares but is a considerably softer spot, so at 5/2 on the morning line the daughter of California Chrome may offer a bit of value at or near that price. Civil Suit, a $25,000 J. Wong claim (a massive 34% with this angle), seems likely to improve for her new barn in what will be her third start in her current form cycle. She’s not as fast on speed figures as out top pick but the lightly-raced Lucky Pulpit mare has room to improve and will be tough if V Bucks doesn’t show up with best stuff.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Granola Girl; 7-Vulin; 10-Wicked

Forecast: Maiden juvenile fillies meet over a mile on grass in a race in which tea leaves might be as helpful at the past performance charts. R. Baltas has pair of interesting first-timers, both bred for grass and both entering the fray with workouts from San Luis Rey Downs. Of the two, Granola Girl, a $70,000 OBS purchase in April, shows the quicker drills and has the benefit of the rail post. But Vulin, a $165,000 Keeneland yearling by Kitten’s Joy, attracts F. Prat, so maybe she’s the better of the two. No matter, both have credentials to run very well in a race full of question marks, so both should be included in rolling exotic play. Wicked must leave from the extreme outside post position but has a few fast workouts on her resume that catch the eye. On video, the R. Mandella-trained filly looks nothing more than just okay, but she might be a whole lot more comfortable on grass, something that could be said for many of these. We’ll use the three listed above in our rolling exotics, but the best advice is to tread lightly.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Til I Found You; 7-Liv and Let Liv; 9-Jasmine Chieftain

Forecast: Low-level ($16,000) claiming 3-year-old fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs in a race that looks a bit treacherous on paper. We’ll go three-deep and hope to get by. Til I Found You was a voided claim for $50,000 in late July and today shows up near the bottom, so her physical condition is suspect. However, the J. Wong-trained filly is more than quick enough to outrun this field if she has at least one good one left, and the break in the weights with the shift to bug girl E. Ellingwood may make the winning difference. Liv and Let Liv drops below her claim level for the first time since last November and if she can reproduce her spring form the J. Hollendorfer-trained filly will be the one to fear most. Like the rest of these, the daughter of Khozan may have issues, so which version of her we see today is anybody’s guess. Jasmine Chieftain, another class dropper, has back speed figures that are better than par for this level and against this group she should draft into a good stalking position and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. At 6-1 on the morning line, she’s worth tossing in.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Over Attracted; 4-Trouville; 5-Freedom Lass; 8-Dramatizer

Forecast: Here’s another wide open grass grab bag requiring considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Dramatizer hasn’t run badly in much tougher local races since arriving from the Midwest, and today’s starter’s allowance looks made to order for the daughter of Exaggerator. She makes a positive jockey switch to U. Rispoli and should have a sufficient closing kick to tag the leaders in the final furlong. Over Attracted won a restricted (nw-2) $32,000 turf claimer here in late July and today is protected on the raise for new trainer M. Maker. On pure numbers she’s right there with the rest of these and from her favorable inside draw she projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, ground-saving journey under good grass rider J. Bravo. Freedom Lass has a prior win over the local lawn and will thoroughly enjoy the switch back to grass. The M. Puype-trained filly should be forwardly placed – perhaps even on the lead – and at 6-1 on the morning line will offer a bit of wagering value in both the horizonal and vertical exotics. Trouville, runner-up in her last pair, has always preferred to run second or third (12 times) rather than win (twice) but with F. Prat riding her back the daughter of Will Take Charge should at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Real Fire; 4-I Got a Gal

Forecast: I Got a Gal acts like an exceptional prospect and should be plenty fit to fire a big shot first crack out of the box for P. Eurton. The daughter of Pioneerof the Nile brought $150,000 at the OBS June sale and has trained like she’s worth all of that and then some, so at 2-1 on the morning line she’s an open secret and a logical top pick. Her dam is a half-sister to Del Mar Oaks-G1 winner Dream Dancing, and her third dam is Breeders’ Cup Distaff-H1 winner Beautiful Pleasure but based on her local drills she has enough speed to be effective sprinting, though we expect her to be rallying from off the pace. Real Fire has trained like a quick sort for J. Sadler and is the one to fear most. The daughter of Street Boss was acquired for $360,000 at the OBS April sale after being very impressive in the preview session when breezing a furlong in :10 flat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the main push going to I Got a Gal.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Fearless Gal; 2-Ultimate Hy; 6-Miss Costa Rica

Forecast: Fearless Gal was a useful handicapper in Ireland before being purchased by West Coast interests and turned over the P. D’Amato, who has done so well with these relatively inexpensive European imports and in some cases turned them into stakes performers. This Irish-bred filly was a winner overseas in June, adds Lasix, and could easily pick up where she left off in this first-level allowance turf miler. She’ll likely settle somewhere in mid-pack while saving ground from the rail and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Ultimate Hy is lightly-raced, nicely drawn, a fit on speed figures and reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli. The B. Heap-trained filly is listed at 6-1 on the morning line and is dangerous at that price. Miss Costa Rica, in her second start off a layoff, is likely to produce a forward move after an even fifth vs. similar over this course and distance last month. The R. Baltas-trained filly has a prior win over the local lawn and enough early speed to gain a favorable early position. The switch to F. Prat won’t hurt, either.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:07 PT Grade: X
Single: 8-Flightline

Forecast: Flightline towers over this field – he might tower over any field – and after registering a Grade-1 type speed figure in his maiden romp by more than 13 lengths at Santa Anita in April the J. Sadler-trained colt finally makes it back to the races in this first-level allowance sprint. And not that he needed the help, but the son of Tapit will leave from a cozy outside post that will allow F. Prat to dictate the race flow. At 4/5 on the morning line and likely to go even shorter than that, he’s a no-value rolling exotic single on his way to much bigger and better things.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:37 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Dolly May; 7-Into Touring; 11-Helens Well

Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf is sprinkled with the usual recent maiden winners and fresh-off-the-plane European imports. Trainer P. D’Amato has two major players, both from Ireland. Helens Well was fourth in her debut in Ireland in May and then, in her U.S. debut, a very impressive winner over this course and distance, overcoming a poor start to graduate like a filly with stakes potential. The far outside draw does her no favors but if she can drop over and get some cover, she’ll be the one to reckon with in the final quarter of a mile. Her stable mate, Dolly May, was a visually pleasing winner of her first start at Limerick in Ireland. She was 33-1 in victory, but the win was anything but a fluke, and we suspect the daughter of Outstrip will be highly-competitive in this event. She’s listed at 10-1 on the morning line and at that price is a “must use.” Into Touring, a clever maiden winner under these conditions in her second career start, produced a good late turn of foot to gain the victory, and though her number wasn’t great the M. Casse-trained filly has every right to continue her improving pattern.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:07 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Eda; 3-Elm Drive

Forecast: Elm Drive and Eda finished one-two in the Sorrento S.-G2 here last month and it will not be surprising if the result of this year’s Del Mar Debutante-G1 winds up the same. Both are exceptional prospects and very fast on speed figures, and both should appreciate today’s extended sprint distance. Elm Drive actually improved her Beyer speed figure by 19 points in winning the Sorrento in brave fashion while taking Eda’s best punch, and since then the daughter of Mohaymen has looked spectacular in the morning. Eda improved her speed figure by 21 points between her maiden race and her outstanding effort in the Sorrento, and she, too, has trained since that race for B. Baffert like a filly could take another step forward. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Elm Drive on top.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:37 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Big Coupe; 9-Talklessworkmore

Forecast: Big Coupe was an unlucky loser when second while two lengths clear of the rest in a similar maiden state-bred middle distance turf event here last month. Wide without cover every step of the way, the son of Lakerville hit the front in mid-stretch but couldn’t hang on while earning a career top number, one that should be good enough to handle this field. He’s nicely drawn inside and retains F. Prat. At a big price we’ll also include Talklessworkmore. The lightly-raced Summer Front gelding was off slowly, fanned very wide when trying to rally on the far turn and then lost some of his punch late when ninth, but beaten only five lengths in just his second career start in late July. He’s adding blinkers and switching to D. Van Dyke, so at 15-1 on the morning line he offers a legitimate price chance.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 06:22 AM

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Sunday, September 5, 2021

September 5, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:35 ET Grade: A-
Single: 7-Hope Over Fear

Forecast: Hope Over Fear was sent long on the lawn in her first career outing and wasn’t quite fit enough to get the trip, as she established the pace but weakened close home to wind up fourth in a race that we suspect will do her a world of good. The daughter of Cupid backs up to seven furlongs, switches to the main track, catches a below par field for the level and has trained superbly since her debut to indicate a significant forward move is highly likely. At 4-1 on the morning line, the W. Mott-trained filly is a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B-
Use: 5-Madam Maclean; 6-Little Dutch Girl

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares has several possibilities but we’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Madam Maclean shows up in a seller for the first time and in this easier assignment could get back on the winning track. Sparingly raced, she earned a career top speed figure when a close seventh (beaten two lengths) over this course and distance last month when facing a much stronger first-level allowance field, and if she can run back to that race against this group the P. Reynolds-trained daughter of Maclean’s Music may be hard to beat. Little Dutch Girl was third in a similar affair under these conditions last month, rallying outside and finishing with interest to be beaten just a length while improving her Beyer speed figure by 13 points. With another forward move today, the C. Clement-trained filly will be right there.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:43 ET Grade: X
Single: 7-Coalition Building

Forecast: Coalition Building is hard to trust, no matter how dominant she may appear in this soft maiden $40,000 claiming turf router for older fillies and mares. She’s been beaten as the favorite in five straight races and her numbers have stagnated, yet this is the cheapest she’s ever run for and the competition is so modest that she’s sure to be a short price yet again. We’ll put her on top by default but if there ever was a race to completely avoid, this is it.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:16 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Spin a Yarn; 5-Lady Traveler

Forecast: Spin A Yarn, a winner of seven of nine career starts and making her first start since a facile score at Finger Lakes in June, tackles open company today and gets Lasix for the first time. Her impressive resume notwithstanding, the daughter of Forty Tales isn’t particularly fast on speed figures so this tougher assignment on the Big Circuit vs. open company surely will test her. From the rail she has only one way to go and that’s on the front end for as long as she can stay there. Lady Traveler, the 5/2 morning line favorite, has been freshened since mid-May when she cut out the fractions before weakening late in the nine-furlong Black-Eyed Susan S.-G2 at Pimlico. She can sprint, too, but most likely will be doing her best work from off the pace. The D. Romans-trained filly also has worked like she’s plenty fit. We’ll give Spin a Yarn a very slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:47 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Milestone Payment/1aParty Line Vote; 5-Imwaytoocoolforyou; 8-Thisladyis the Law

Forecast: Maiden $40,000 claiming older fillies and mares sprint on grass in an open fray requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Milestone Payment shows up in a seller for the first time after flashing speed but weakening to be third in a dirt sprint at Monmouth Park last month. This is a group she should be able to outrun from start to finish. Her entry mate, Party Line Vote, cost $180,000 as a weanling but is debuting for a tag, so clearly her connections aren’t high on her, but the barn does have a spectacular record with first-time starters (26% with a huge ROI) so she may provide a little insurance to those inclined to zero in on the 7/5 morning line favorite. Imwaytoocoolforyou, another invader from Monmouth Park, finished third in her last pair while showing good speed and then weakening late. Her last two races were washed off the grass; maybe today she’ll finally get a chance to show what she can do on the sod. Thisladyis the Law, a $30,000 L. Rice claim at Belmont Park in early July, shows a bullet five furlong workout (1:01.1b) last week to indicate she’s fit for her return, and she does have a grass sprint number (her first race) that makes her reasonably dangerous.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:22 ET Grade: C+
Use: 5-Actuary; 8-Clever Fellow; 10-Risk Manager; 11-Carribbean Gold

Forecast: Here’s a messy middle distance turf event with a full field featuring restricted (nw-2) $40,000 older claimers. Risk Manager drops below his claim level in his second start after being haltered by D. Gargan, who plays the claiming game very aggressively and may have this Lookin At Luck colt well-spotted for a major effort. Sixth but beaten just over two lengths in a tougher starter’s allowance even when victimized by an unfavorable race flow, the lightly-raced 3-year-old has rising speed figures and an easy breeze since raced. With a decent early pace and room to rally when called upon, he could spring a minor surprise at 5-1 on the morning line. Clever Fellow just won a maiden $40,000 event over this course and distance in decent style while earning a number that makes him competitive right back. The I. Ortiz, Jr.,/C. Brown team always has to be respected so if this gelding improves just a little bit he’ll be right there. Caribbean Gold wired a maiden $40,000 field in late July, quickly establishing the pace and then proving uncatchable while earning a career top mark. It would seem that he’s a need-the-lead type, so front-running tactics surely will be employed again in a race that may not have all that much early speed in it. Actuary drops into a claimer, shortens from a mini-marathon and has as right to improve in just his third start since being imported from Ireland. If he can be competitive on this circuit, this would be a good place to show it.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:53 ET Grade: X
Single: 2-Classy Edition

Forecast: Classy Edition is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite in the New York-bred juvenile sprint for fillies. Based on the way she’s trained the daughter of Classic Empire will go off a lot shorter than that. Purchase for $550,00 at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale in May, the half sister to the multiple New York-bred stakes winner Newly Minted breezed a furlong in :10 flat during the preview session and looked spectacular in doing so, and her local works since joining the main T. Pletcher string have been equally impressive. She should put on an exhibition as an obvious short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:27 ET Grade: B+
Single: 3-Jester Calls Nojoy

Forecast: Jester Calls Nojoy was extremely well-meant in her debut but came up a tad short when worn down close home while more than four lengths clear of the rest. Her speed figure came up pretty good, so with that race behind her the daughter of Maclean’s Music should be fitter and tougher today in this seven furlong maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies. The newcomers seem ordinary so let’s make this T. Pletcher a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:01 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Command Point; 2-Baseline Drive; 10-Claddagh’s Run

Forecast>: This starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares contains several committed front-running types, so the early pace figures to be fast and contested and the closers should have every chance from the quarter pole home. Chicago invader Command Point, now in the G. Weaver barn, is lightly-raced and improving, most recently finishing a solid third in a first-level allowance turf miler that produced a career top speed figure. She picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. and could tag the speed at a decent price with good racing luck. Baseline Drive, a Gulfstream Park invader making her first start since mid-June, is another with numbers that put her in the thick of things. She can settle somewhere in the second flight and then kick home when set down. Claddagh’s Run is listed at 20-1 on the morning line and seems better than that. Fifth vs. similar following a three month vacation, the “other” G. Weaver-trained mare has been first or second in eight of 13 career outings and has the proper late-running style that should be complimented by the projected race flow. With good racing luck she should be heard from in the final furlong.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Mystic Night; 8-First Constitution; 9-Superfecto

Forecast: First Constitution, a Grade-1 winner of three of four starts in his native Chile, makes his U.S. debut in this second-level allowance nine furlong main track event following a series of good works that should have him fit enough. Bred on southern hemisphere time and therefore not quite actually four years old, the son of Constitution recently worked stride-for-stride with Happy Saver while displaying good early speed, so we suspect he’ll be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance to make his mark in his first start since last December. I. Ortiz, Jr. picks up the call on the T. Pletcher-trained colt, who is listed at 5-1 on the morning line and may be a gamble at that price. Mystic Night, freshened since May, is quite strong in the speed figure department, though he’s been sparingly raced with just three well-spaced appearances in 2021. Recent works indicate he’s fit, so he must be considered a major player. Superfecto makes this third start in his current form cycle, and it should be his best effort. With rising numbers and good pace-forcing style, the R. Nicks-trained colt switches to L. Saez and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:11 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Girl With a Dream; 3-Echo Zulu; 5-Pretty Birdie

Forecast: This year’s Spinaway S.-G1 is a legit race for a Grade One, with several highly-talented fillies stretching out to seven furlongs for the first time. Echo Zulu earned a giant speed figure in her debut in mid-July when easily disposing of maidens by more than five lengths while drawing away with complete authority in the final furlong. The daughter of Gun Runner should get nothing but better as the distances increase, and recent workouts indicate she’s better now than she was prior to her first start. Pretty Birdie is unbeaten in two starts and already is graded stakes winner, having captured the Schuylerville S.-G3 over the Saratoga main track in gate-to-wire fashion in mid-July. She’s probably the best of the speed types but should be under pressure most of the way. The good news is that her pedigree suggests she should easily handle more distance. Girl With a Dream graduated at first asking at Ellis Park in July while drawing away late as much best. She’s pretty fast on numbers, though well short of the best figure earned by Echo Zulu. The daughter of Practical Joke should be ideally suited for this extended sprint trip, so at 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth including in your exotics.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:46 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Veterans Beach; 4-Dr. Blute; 6-King Angelo

Forecast: The nightcap is a turf sprint New York-bred first-level allowance older horses. Veterans Beach, freshened since mid-June and a prior turf sprint winner at Saratoga, lands the rail, gets I. Ortiz, Jr., and shows a steady series of local drills that should have him fit to fire a big shot off the bench. The son of Big Brown has only started three times in the past 20 months but remains protected in a sign of confidence from trainer C. Clement after earning a career top speed figure when second in a similar affair at Belmont Park last time out. King Angelo looked pretty good breaking his maiden vs. state-bred foes here last month while earning a number that makes him a major player right back. L. Saez will have him on or near the lead throughout. Dr. Blute, a close third at this level over this course and distance last month, has gradually rising speed figures but still needs another bit of improvement to defeat a field off this quality. The Not This Time gelding should be doing his best work late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 06:25 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Arlington - Race #4

#6 Battle Scars	He rallied from well off it in the debut try, and he should be a price again while stepping up to face winners with a pedigree that screams out for more ground.
#2 Temper Tantrum	He and his stablemate ran 1-2 in stakes company last month, and they should both be tough again here while drawing alongside one another. Nothing to argue with in the turf form.
#3 Richiesgotgame	He rolled at this level on the main track two starts back before chasing his stablemate home in his latest start, and he's an obvious player in this short group.
Race Summary	Battle Scars didn't earn much of a figure in the debut win, but he's bred to want much longer and still has plenty of upside with just the first start under his belt.

Arlington - Race #6

#3 Pharoah Cat	Blinkers go on for this second start off the long layoff, and he may offer a playable price with the guy to his outside likely to command plenty of cash.
#4 Clyde's Green Go	He has had every chance in two turf starts, and he looks like he should be tough with this group. The price probably won't be fair.
#5 Storm's Reflection	He moved forward in that second lifetime start but couldn't sustain the run he made in the lane, and another step forward might leave him in the picture with these.
Race Summary	Pharoah Cat can build on a decent comeback effort last time out, and the addition of blinkers might keep him in the game a bit earlier.

Arlington - Race #8

#3 Simple Logic	He ran okay at this trip last year for this barn, and he was in too deep when trying stakes company in that last one going long. Chance with his best.
#1 You Split Tens	He moves in with state-bred company after a good try last out over this footing, and his baseline effort makes him very tough with these for a capable barn.
#4 Demand Ransom	Don't think he's much of a threat on top, but he occasionally runs the type of race that would be good enough to land a piece of this at a price.
Race Summary	Simple Logic should be better with this kind after moving from his maiden win to a stakes try last out, and the rail runner might take enough cash to keep the price playable.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 06:27 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Del Mar - Race #6

#1 Anonymously	Was second for $32K last out and was claimed by Maker, who is strong on claims anywhere he goes; has a decent late run on occasion and will get a good pace in front of him.
#6 A G Indy	Drew off to an easy win last out and her last three over this course have produced a win and two seconds (in photo finishes)
#11 She's So Nice	Has trained well here for her first since September and she's set to make her first U.S. start after running in Great Britain.
Race Summary	Anonymously has enough speed to stay in range and has enough late kick to be very dangerous.

Del Mar - Race #8

#6 Aquitania Arrival	Moves over to the turf after running fifth in the G2 Best Pal; was a maiden winner at Churchill and lands in a spot that does not look like it's all that difficult.
#1 Silver Surfer	Comes in from Ireland, where he won his last one; has trained well since arriving in the D'Amato barn.
#8 Optimising	Was an easy winner in his only start, which came over the all-weather track at Wolverhampton (GB) and is set to start for McCarthy.
Race Summary	Aquitania Arrival comes out of a strong race and should be able to adapt to the turf; the distance should not be a problem.

Del Mar - Race #9

#1 Pappacap	Was dominant in the G2 Best Pal, winning by five, and the Gun Runner colt is perfect in his two starts; Casse runner will likely improve with distance.
#5 Murray	Baffert runner was a 10-leength winner in his only start; legit threat to the top choice.
#4 Pinehurst	Held on for a hard-earned win here in his only start; second Baffert starter.
Race Summary	Pappacap answered the call in the Best Pal and is talent and experience can carry him to a win vs. a tough field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 06:33 AM

Mr. Ed's Saratoga on (about) $100 a Day (9-5)

By Ed Sehon

September 5, 2021 01:32 AM

SATURDAY RECAP: #2 Max Player upset chalky choice #1 Forza Di Oro in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, earning a probable trip to the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar this fall. Trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by his go-to guy Ricardo Santana Jr., the winner paid $9.60 on a $2 Win ticket … Other stakes winners included Cilla ($23.40), Public Sector ($4.40) and War Like Goddess ($2.80) … Top performers also included jockeys the Bros. Ortiz with three wins each and trainer Chad Brown with a pair of victories … The average $2 Win ticket returned $9.90. The $1 Pick 6 paid $7,893.

IRAD INDEX: Irad Ortiz Jr. had three low-priced winners, returning a total of $11.80 from 10 mounts (-$20 at a mythical $2 per Win wager). Going into the day he showed a $24.80 deficit over the past 14 racing days. So, with two cards to go until meet’s end on Monday, Irad is in the hole at -$36.60 … On the plus side, he did have three winners, closing within six of Luis Saez, who was shut out on Saturday. Mr. Ed's words to the wise: Do not count this super-competitor out of turning a profit, and/or capturing the leading rider title … He has nine mounts on Sunday.

TODAY AT THE SPA: Another deep 12-race card awaits fans on this 39th day of the Spa meet. Race No. 1 has an early 12:35 p.m. ET/9:35 a.m. PT post time … The featured stakes is the Grade 1, $300,000 Spinaway (Race No. 11, 6:11 p.m. ET/3:11 p.m. PT) for 2-year-old fillies at 7 furlongs on the main track. Trainer Asmussen and jockey Santana with #3 Echo Zulu (8-5 morning line) are favored to capture the Gold Cup-Spinaway double, a rare feat … Mudders make note: Mid-afternoon showers are in the forecast.

DAILY DOUBLE (Races Nos. 1-2, 12:35 p.m. ET/9:35 a.m. PT)

Mr. Ed opens the day pairing #3 Love to Run (6-1 morning line) in Race No. 1 with #5 Madam Maclean in the 2nd (see below). Wager: $4 Daily Double of 3-5. ($4)

EXACTA EXTRA (Race No. 2, 1:10 p.m. ET/10:10 a.m. PT)

In need of bus fare back to Belmont, new trainer Patrick Reynolds drops #5 Madam Maclean (3-1 morning line), who gets serious rider upgrade to Jose Lezcano. Filly registered best Beyer Speed Rating last out. Wager: $4 Exacta Box 5/6,7 & 11. ($24)

BEST BET (Race No. 6, 3:22 p.m. ET/12:22 p.m. PT)

Another trainer seeking financial assistance, out-of-towner Saffie Joseph Jr. enters #3 Fair Haired Boy (6-1 morning line) off career-best effort over yielding turf. Mr. Ed expecting rain to soften grass. Wager: $10 to Win & Place on 3. ($20)

PRICE PLAY (Race No. 8, 4:27 p.m. ET/1:27 p.m. PT)

Jeremiah Englehart stretches #7 Solasta (10-1 morning line) out after disappointing debut for $300,000 daughter of Goldencents. Jose Lezcano gets mount. Gal should improve with added distance. Wager: $10 Win & Place. ($20)

EXTRA EXACTA (Race No. 9, 5:01 p.m. ET/2:01 p.m. PT)

Top rider Luis Saez picks up mount on #7 Kemba for sneaky-solid trainer Ray Handal. She looks like the speed of the speed off recent fast work. Wager: $4 Exacta Box of 7 with 1,2 & 12. ($24)

LATE PICK 4 (Races Nos. 9-12, 5:01 p.m. ET/2:01 p.m. PT)

Race 9: 1,2,7,12

Race 10: 2,8,9

Race 11: 2,3,5,8

Race 12: 1,7 ($48)

TOTAL WAGERS: $140

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 09:20 AM

Sunday’s games
NL games
Pittsburgh (48-86) @ Cubs (61-74)
— Crowe is 0-0, 6.59 in his last three starts.
— Pirates are 9-11 in his starts.
— over 10-9-1
— allowed run in first inning: 6-20
— record in first 5 innings: 5-13-2
— He is 0-1, 12.27 in two starts vs Chicago this year.

— Pirates are 12-35 in last 47 games.
— Pittsburgh is 2-13 in last 15 road games.
— under 11-7-1 last 19 games
— scored run in first inning: 32-134
— record in first 5 innings: 41-78-15

— Davies is 0-1, 4.29 in his last four starts.
— Cubs are 13-15 in his starts.
— over 5-2-2 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 7-28
— record in first 5 innings: 11-12-5
— He is 2-1, 5.65 in three starts vs Pittsburgh this year.

— Cubs won their last five games.
— Chicago is 5-1 in last six home games.
— Over is 8-3 in last 11 games.
— scored run in first inning: 37-136
— record in first 5 innings: 54-68-14

Mets (68-67) @ Washington (56-80)
— Walker is 0-6, 5.95 in his last seven starts.
— Mets lost his last seven starts.
— under 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 4-24
— record in first 5 innings: 11-10-3
— He is 1-1, 2.70 in two starts vs Washington this year.

— Mets won six of last seven games.
— Mets are 6-12 in last 18 road games.
— under 13-5-2 last 20 games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-137
— record in first 5 innings: 54-69-14

— Gray is 0-1, 4.50 in six starts for Washington.
— Washington is 2-4 in his starts.
— over 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4
— He hasn’t pitched against New York.

— Washington is 14-36 in its last 50 games.
— Nationals are 3-11 in last 14 home games.
— over 22-8-2 last 40 games
— scored run in first inning: 41-137
— record in first 5 innings: 55-59-23

Philadelphia (69-66) @ Miami (57-79)
— bullpen game

— Phillies won six of last eight games.
— Phillies are 39-28 at home, 30-38 on road.
— over 8-2 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 43-135
— record in first 5 innings: 58-51-26

— Hernandez is 1-1, 4.91 in his last three games.
— Marlins are 3-2 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1-2
— He is 3-0, 3.93 in 5 games (3 starts) vs Philly.

— Marlins lost 12 of last 18 games.
— Miami is 6-1 in last seven home games.
— under 11-4 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 35-136
— record in first 5 innings: 51-63-22

St Louis (69-65) @ Milwaukee (83-54)
— Lester is 2-0, 2.95 in his last four starts.
— Cardinals are 4-2 in his starts.
— under 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— record in first 5 innings: 4-2
— He is 5-4, 3.30 in 15 starts vs Milwaukee.

— Cardinals are 5-3 in last eight games.
— St Louis is 11-4 in its last 15 road games.
— Under is 8-5-1 in their last 14 games.
— scored run in first inning: 49-134
— record in first 5 innings: 62-52-20

— Burnes is 3-0, 1.64 in his last five starts.
— Milwaukee won his last eight starts.
— under 3-1-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 5-23
— record in first 5 innings: 15-4-4
— He is 1-1, 0.53 in three starts vs St Louis this year.

— Brewers are 30-15 in last 45 games.
— Milwaukee is 5-2 in last seven home games.
— under 8-2-1 last 11 games.
— scored run in first inning: 46-137
— record in first 5 innings: 71-42-24

Atlanta (70-64) @ Colorado (63-73)
— Morton is 2-1, 3.52 in his last four starts.
— Braves are 14-13 in his starts.
— under 4-1-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 6-27
— you’re reading armadillosports.com
— record in first 5 innings: 17-8-2
— He is 2-2, 3.77 in ten starts vs Colorado.

— Braves lost five of last six games.
— Atlanta is 14-5 in last 19 road games.
— under 11-3-2 last 16 games
— scored run in first inning: 48-135
— record in first 5 innings: 68-48-19

— bullpen game

— Colorado is 12-8 in its last 20 games.
— Rockies are 45-23 at home, 18-50 on road.
— over 7-5 last 12 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 47-136
— record in first 5 innings: 55-62-19

Los Angeles (86-50) @ San Francisco (86-50)
— Buehler is 5-1, 1.46 in his last ten starts.
— Dodgers are 19-8 in his starts.
— under 4-1-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 5-27
— you’re reading armadillosports.com
— record in first 5 innings: 12-10-5
— He is 3-0, 1.54 in six starts vs SF this season.

— Dodgers are 27-10 in last 37 games.
— Dodgers are 7-1 in last eight road games.
— under 15-2-1 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 45-135
— record in first 5 innings: 72-42-21

— bullpen game

— Giants lost six of last nine games.
— Giants are 11-6 in last 17 home games.
— Under is 16-5-1 in last 22 games.
— scored run in first inning: 42-136
— record in first 5 innings: 71-47-18

AL games
Oakland (74-62) @ Toronto (72-62)
— Irvin is 1-1, 5.93 in his last three starts.
— A’s are 13-13 in his starts.
— over 3-1-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 8-26
— record in first 5 innings: 11-13-2
— He gave up a run in 8 IP in one start vs Toronto.

— A’s are 6-13 in their last 19 games.
— Oakland is 4-8 in last 12 road games.
— Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 40-136
— record in first 5 innings: 60-53-23

— Ray is 2-0, 1.72 in his last seven starts.
— Toronto is 14-12 in his starts.
— under 6-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 6-26
— record in first 5 innings: 13-6-7
— He gave up 3 runs in 6 IP, in one start vs Oakland.

— Toronto is 6-1 in last seven games.
— Blue Jays are 16-7 in last 23 home games.
— Under is 11-4 in last 15 games.
— scored run in first inning: 38-133
— record in first 5 innings: 26-14-6 last 46

Baltimore (42-92) @ Bronx (78-57)
— Akin is 2-0, 1.50 in his last two starts.
— Baltimore is 3-10 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 4-13
— record in first 5 innings: 1-10-2
— He is 0-1, 5.11 in 4 games (2 starts) vs New York.

— Orioles are 3-26 in their last 29 games.
— Baltimore is 23-48 on road, 19-44 at home.
— under 4-0 last four games.
— scored run in first inning: 45-134
— record in first 5 innings: 41-75-18

— Kluber is 0-1, 9.00 in two starts since his no-hitter.
— New York is 6-5 in his starts.
— under 8-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-11
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5-2
— He is 1-0, 2.19 in two starts vs Baltimore this year.

— New York lost four of last six games.
— New York is 8-1 in last nine home games.
— over 22-16-1 last 39 games
— scored run in first inning: 30-135
— record in first 5 innings: 57-47-31

Cleveland (67-66) @ Boston (79-59)
— Plesac is 3-0, 3.60 in his last four starts.
— Indians are 12-8 in his starts.
— over 9-1-2 last 12
— allowed run in first inning: 6-20
— record in first 5 innings: 8-10-2
— He is 0-0, 3.48 in two starts vs Boston.

— Cleveland is 9-5 in last 14 games.
— Indians are 6-8 in last 14 road games.
— under 5-3 last eight games
— scores run in first inning: 40-133
— record in first 5 innings: 53-60-20

— Pivetta is 0-2, 10.12 in his last three starts.
— Red Sox are 15-11 in his starts.
— under 13-3 last 16
— allowed run in first inning: 8-26
— record in first 5 innings: 10-11-5
— He hasn’t pitched against Cleveland.

— Boston is 10-8 in its last 18 games.
— Red Sox are 9-2 in last 11 home games.
— under 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 47-138
— record in first 5 innings: 62-56-20

Minnesota (58-77) @ Tampa Bay (86-50)
— Jax is 0-2, 10.91 in his last three starts.
— Twins are 4-4 in his starts.
— under 7-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-8
— record in first 5 innings: 1-5-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Tampa Bay.

— Minnesota lost five of last six games.
— Twins are 2-7 in last nine road games.
— under 5-1-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 47-134
— record in first 5 innings: 40-69-25

— Patino is 2-0, 2.31 in his last two starts.
— Rays are 6-5 in his starts.
— under 6-5
— allowed run in first inning: 3-11
— record in first 5 innings: 4-7
— He gave up 2 runs in 3 IP in one start vs Minnesota.

— Tampa Bay won 26 of last 34 games.
— Rays are 11-3 in last 14 home games.
— over 16-9-2 last 27 games.
— scored run in first inning: 44-136
— record in first 5 innings: 58-49-29

White Sox (79-57) @ Kansas City (60-75)
— Cease is 4-0, 2.83 in his last six games.
— White Sox are 16-11 in his starts.
— over 3-1-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 8-27
— record in first 5 innings: 13-9-5
— He is 1-0, 2.01 in four starts vs Kansas City this year.

— Chicago is 6-2 in last eight games.
— White Sox are 4-7 in last 11 road games.
— under 3-2-1 last six road games.
— scored run in first inning: 41-136
— record in first 5 innings: 76-39-21

— Singer is 0-3, 7.71 in his last five starts.
— Kansas City is 7-16 in his starts.
— under 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 8-23
— record in first 5 innings: 8-13-2
— He is 0-1, 5.29 in three starts vs Chicago.

— Royals lost five of last six games.
— Royals are 4-5 in last nine home games.
— under 27-13-4 last 44 games.
— scores run in first inning: 31-138
— record in first 5 innings: 50-66-22

Texas (47-88) @ Angels (68-68)
— Hearn is 2-2, 3.47 in five starts.
— Rangers are 3-2 in his starts.
— over 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2-1
— He gave up 6 runs in 8 IP in 4 relief stints vs Anaheim.

— Texas is 11-36 in last 47 games.
— Texas is 2-7 in last nine road games.
— over 13-10-2 last 25 games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-135
— record in first 5 innings: 45-73-17

— bullpen game

— Angels won five of last six games.
— Angels are 7-6 in last 13 home games.
— over 8-6 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 41-136
— record in first 5 innings: 59-61-16

Interleague games
Detroit (64-73) @ Cincinnati (73-64)
— Mize is 1-1, 4.12 in his last four starts.
— Detroit is 14-11 in his starts.
— under 16-7-2
— allowed run in first inning: 6-25
— record in first 5 innings: 12-9-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Cincinnati.

— Detroit is 7-13 in its last 20 games.
— Detroit is 7-3 in last ten road games.
— under 20-11-2 last 33 games
— scored run in first inning: 28-137
— record in first 5 innings: 19-21-4 last 44

— Castillo is 1-3, 3.12 in his last four starts.
— Reds are 10-18 in his starts.
— under 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 11-28
—
— record in first 5 innings: 12-14-2
— He is 0-1, 4.50 in two starts vs Detroit.

— Cincinnati is 26-21 in its last 47 games.
— Reds are 12-5 in last 17 home games.
— under 11-4 last 15 games
— scored run in first inning: 42-136
— record in first 5 innings: 66-54-17

Seattle (74-62) @ Arizona (45-92)
— Flexen is 1-0, 2.49 in his last four starts.
— Mariners are 17-8 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 8-25
— record in first 5 innings: 14-9-2
— He gave up 2 runs in 6 IP in one start vs Arizona.

— Seattle won five of last six games.
— Seattle is 9-2 in last 11 road games.
— under 7-4 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 43-136
— record in first 5 innings: 59-59-18

— Gilbert is 0-1, 6.60 in three starts since his no-hitter.
— Mariners are 2-2 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Seattle.

— Arizona lost seven of last eight games.
— Arizona is 7-5 in its last 12 home games.
— over 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 18-137
— record in first 5 innings: 52-73-12

Houston (79-56) @ San Diego (72-64)
— Garcia is 3-0, 2.28 in his last five starts.
— Astros are 14-4 in his last 18 starts.
— under 12-3-1 last 16
— allowed run in first inning: 7-23
— record in first 5 innings: 15-5-3
— He hasn’t pitched against San Diego.

— Astros lost four of last six games.
— Astros are 5-8 in last 13 road games.
— under 6-3-2 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 47-135
— record in first 5 innings: 73-43-19

— Paddack is 3-0, 3.48 in his last four starts.
— Padres are 13-7 in his starts.
— over 8-2 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 4-20
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Houston.

— Padres lost 14 of last 20 games.
— San Diego lost five of last six home games.
— under 8-4-2 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 39-135
— record in first 5 innings: 55-62-18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 09:51 AM

Paul Leiner

100* Redsox -145
100* Mariners -135
100* Over 9 Royals/White Sox

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 09:53 AM

Rob Vinciletti
NASCAR | Kyle Larson vs Chase Elliott
Play on: Kyle Larson -165 at SC Consensus

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 09:53 AM

Bobby Ligs

Florida State +8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 09:53 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Milwaukee w/Burnes -225 over St Louis

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 09:53 AM

Totals4U

Sunday's Free Selection: Houston Astros/San Diego Padres over 9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 09:54 AM

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Sunday: Tampa Bay Rays - 190

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-05-2021, 09:54 AM

#1 Sports

Sunday's Free Play: Detroit Tigers + 185