Wednesday 9/8/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#2 Sok Fury	Worth a small look to beat the chalk drawn on the inside, as this filly went long in her career debut, so she might be capable of something better around two turns now that she has a couple races under her belt.
#1 Not Shy	She's a good fit a this level with a couple of runner-up finishes to her credit, and something like a repeat of those tries might be good enough here at a short price.
#6 Out of Pocket	Has a few lengths to turn on Not Shy from their most recent meeting, and she has done her best work on synthetic footing. Should be there for a share.
Race Summary	Sok Fury is interesting enough while moving back around two turns, and she made a nice move before flattening out in that sprint run last time out.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#2 The Peninsula	He took a nice step forward in that second career start, and something similar to that one might be good enough to land this, let alone how tough he can be with another step forward.
#7 Optigogo	Debuter meets a suspect enough group outside of the top choice, and this guy ships in from Arlington for this first trip to post. Outside draw might work in her favor to track the splits.
#1 Bali Beach	He faded badly late in the debut at Gulfstream, but he's bred to move up a bit on a synthetic surface like this, and he might find this local group more to his liking for a 61% jockey-trainer combo.
Race Summary	The Peninsula would probably be able to land this by repeating his latest try, and he has shown a little bit of versatility and ability to adapt to the race flow through two starts.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#2 Don't Make Me Beg	Stretchout player has the pedigree to handle this kind of local trip, and she has some pace while moving around two turns that should come in handy in a race without any real confirmed speed. Hoping she has a go of it early.
#7 Bellissime	She ran pretty well in a couple of European tries over synthetic footing, so she has some upside here on the surface switch while adding blinkers for her second North American start.
#5 Starship Goddess	She made a mild bid before flattening in that last one, but it was an encouraging enough effort while stepping up to this level with the locals. Think she could be a spoiler.
Race Summary	Don't Make Me Beg has the kind of pace to be tough with an advantageous race shape waiting for her, and she is bringing really sharp form with her as she aims for a third score in a row.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#3 LITTLE ADMIRAL	Up late for second against similar, lack of pace flow a concern.
#1 MOONWARDS HANOVER	Speed from rail, piles up the checks but not the wins.
#2 MISTER INDIANA	Fired blank for new barn, one to beat on best.
Race Summary	Little Admiral rallied wide to finish second behind the runaway 9-5 winner and he appears the safest play in a field loaded with question marks. He's the third favorite behind Moonwards Hanover (2-52 since 2020) and Mister Indiana, who back-pedaled readily as the favorite off the claim. Bet on him to win and place.

Yonkers - Race #1

#1 QUICK ASA TRICK N	Loomed boldly while first-over against three-peat winner, ran third.
#8 LANA'S DESIRE	Validated near upset two back with win at the same level.
#3 FAST ON THE DRAW	Finished in the money in 3 of last 5 starts at this level.
Race Summary	Quick Asa Trick N came out from fifth at the half-mile marker, advanced steadily to move within a length of the 3-to-5 winner at the top of the stretch, but settled for third in a photo finish. His versatility comes in handy from the rail as he seeks his 24th victory. Play 1-3 and 1-8 exactas.

Northfield Park - Race #1

#3 JET J	Should overpower dreadful field and pick up second victory.
#2 RISKY MIKE	First-over fade from second-tier starting spot off freshening.
#1 HOTOFFTHEPRESS K	Caught loose leader from rail, but 2 of 4 rivals broke stride.
Race Summary	Jet J lands in a dream spot as today's Best Bet. He took money but never threatened the 1-to-5 winner last out, one start after he chased and faded against the horse that defeated the same 1-to-5 winner. His 1-8 record is magnified against a field that is a combined 2-for-100.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Remington Park - Race #1

#4 Hern	Was an even fifth on turf last out, and the son of Gun Runner looks like a natural for a mile on dirt.
#2 Bro Code	Weakened while fourth in a sprint and has an excellent chance to improve going longer.
#5 Chrome King	Pressed and faltered to fourth on turf and can improve as he moves to the main track.
Race Summary	Hern did not fare well in two at Lone Star, once in a dash and once going two-turns on turf; likely to be better going longer on the main track.

Remington Park - Race #2

#8 Gurl You Fine	Was competitive in tough dit sprints at Lone Star but was fourth on the turf in a good Sam Houston turf race; makes her second off the claim by Lucarelli and takes a class drop.
#5 Summer Love	Ships in from Del Mar, where she never reached contention in two starts; likely a better fit here.
#3 Sweet Perfection	Won two straight to end Lone Star and then battled throughout and was second in her first here; clearly likes to be on the front end, and the lesser distance might be right in her wheelhouse.
Race Summary	Gurl You Fine has taken on much better, and the class relief should do her well; can be in the mix throughout.

Remington Park - Race #6

#1 Paynter Party	Has been in good races and ran an even first in his first here; likely to improve in his return over this trip.
#4 Sports Fan	Was third four times in a race this year and most recently was fourth; could b in a favorable spot this time.
#6 Hulen	Was second in a Texas-bred allowance last out at Lone Star but also has battled vs. open company; was third in the Kip Deville and Clever Trevor here last year.
Race Summary	Paynter Party probably needed the race last time and can move up in his second local attempt.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs

Presque Isle Downs - Race 1	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 1-2-3) Pick 5 (min .50 cent) (Races 1-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $13,000 • Post: 4:45P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 8, 2021 OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES IN 2020 - 2021. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES) (LIMITED TO10 STARTERS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * THEYKEEPONCOMIN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PATIENT DIGNA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ANNIE UP BUCK: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SAYSO: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	THEYKEEPONCOMIN	9/5	6/1
3	PATIENT DIGNA	7/2	6/1
6	ANNIE UP BUCK	2/1	7/1
5	SAYSO	6/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	THEYKEEPONCOMIN	1	9/5	Stalker	72	67	64.0	67.6	63.1
3	PATIENT DIGNA	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	70	63	57.8	64.4	60.4
6	ANNIE UP BUCK	6	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	64	54.4	63.2	57.2
4	SECRET TEMPLE	4	8/1	Trailer	66	65	49.6	60.2	50.7
5	SAYSO	5	6/1	Trailer	71	61	48.6	68.6	59.6
2	SUPER DONNA G	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	62	60.4	58.4	51.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

Thistledown - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta
SO $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $22,900 • Post: 3:50P
FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021 AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2021 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 8 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * REANIMATE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff . Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MAKE THE CALL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. OL' L B: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Hors e ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	REANIMATE	5/1	9/2
1	MAKE THE CALL	7/2	9/2
2	OL' L B	3/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	REANIMATE	4	5/1	Front-runner	89	79	82.2	78.8	74.3
6	INTO THE OUT	6	8/1	Front-runner	73	73	74.2	65.8	56.3
3	RIDGE WEST	3	5/2	Front-runner	68	73	68.2	63.2	51.7
1	MAKE THE CALL	1	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	87	81	65.4	80.4	76.4
2	OL' L B	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	83	62.0	73.4	68.4
5	SHOW SLIDING HOME	5	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	76	55.2	69.8	59.8
7	TIGER TRAIL	7	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	80	56.6	68.8	57.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Arizona Downs - Race #3 - Post: 3:26pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 51

Rating:

#3 GATO SICILIANO (ML=5/1)
#4 BANGO FOR BUCKS (ML=5/2)


GATO SICILIANO - Early zip is always important in horse racing, but the lone speed horse is always dangerous. Don't often see a positive return on investment like +65. This rider/trainer tandem has done well together over the last twelve months. Was in a $30,000 Maiden Optional Claiming race at Arizona Downs in the last race. That clash had a class rating of 56 and he is moving down in this field. A certain solid contender. BANGO FOR BUCKS - I like the fact that this 1st time starter's recent works have been over this track. The addition of Lasix might make this equine run well right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MAGNIFICANT MONEY (ML=4/5), #7 MISS MY MAMMA (ML=8/1),

MAGNIFICANT MONEY - Don't think this pony will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed fig was substandard when compared with today's Equibase class figure. MISS MY MAMMA - A rallier like this one needs a speed battle to set things up and she isn't likely to get one this time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #3 GATO SICILIANO to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 83

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 KID SHELLEEN 7/5
# 2 PRIORITIZATION 5/1
# 3 SIMON PETER 5/1

KID SHELLEEN should be supported as the wager in here. He has to be considered given the very good speed figures. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figs of this group of animals in his last race. It's a good signal that Contreras is using Esquivel on this horse. PRIORITIZATION - Players should note that this racer runs with second time Lasix today. With a competitive 74 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this competition. SIMON PETER - Is worth careful consideration and may be a bet - strong speed figures (76 average) at today's distance and surface recently. With a quite good 76 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:25pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,600 Class Rating: 84

Rating:

#6 AUBURN MILL (ML=2/1)


AUBURN MILL - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. This gelding is in good form. Ran first on August 22nd. Multiple wins in this horse's life, all at Charles Town. Could add another win in today's race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NEVER COMPROMISE (ML=6/5), #2 DEJOHN (ML=7/2), #1 JEFFERY SCOTT (ML=4/1),

NEVER COMPROMISE - This entrant hasn't been on the track since Jul 29th. Not even any morning activity. This gelding hasn't had any positive outcomes in sprint affairs in the last couple months. This horse hasn't shown much life in the last pair of races. DEJOHN - Doubtful that the fig he registered on August 26th will hold up in this event. JEFFERY SCOTT - Tough to bet on a pony that loses so frequently.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 AUBURN MILL to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carmine Bianco

Event: (225221) Estonia at (225222) Wales
Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: September 8, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Wales -1.75 (-120)
WCQ - Estonia at Wales
Quick Synopsis: Group E action and a play on Wales here on the handicap line. Saturday saw Wales play only their 3rd of 8 games in WCQ play and they were heading for what would have been a deflating defeat and one that would have put them squarely behind the 8 ball in qualifying but a hat trick and 2 second half Gareth Bale goals has give this team new life. They'll take on a Estonia side that have gone 0-3 and been outscored 15-6 and a 4th is likely here. Our expectancy number has Wales at 2.66. Wales 3-0 should get us there for the win and cover.
The play is Wales -1.75 (Split line of -1.5 and -2.0)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Ligs

Event: (927) Detroit Tigers at (928) Pittsburgh Pirates
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: September 8, 2021 6PM EDT
Play: Detroit Tigers +106 M Manning (RHP), M Keller (RHP) Must Start

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Michaels

Event: (921) Tampa Bay Rays at (922) Boston Red Sox
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: September 8, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: Boston Red Sox -107 S Mcclanahan (LHP), N Eovaldi (RHP) Must Start
Boston w/ Eovaldi

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Borrman

Event: El Salvador at Canada
Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: September 8, 2021 7PM EDT
Play: El Salvador +1.5 (-130)
World Cup Qualifying
I'm pretty high on this Canada team. They are young and talented and seem to get better with every game they play and are led by their young Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies who did get a knock in the 2nd half against the USA on Sunday and was taken out of the game and there is a very good chance he is not going to be playing in this match.
Regardless, I would still take El Salvador here even if he was. During this break, El Salvador has played to two 0-0 draws against the USA and Honduras while Canada played to two 1-1 draws against the same teams. Statistically speaking, there wasn't much seperating these teams and how they stacked up against USA and Honduras.
El Salvador was outshot by both teams, but most of them were meaningless shots as between both games, they allowed a combined 24 shots but only 3 on goal while they took 15 shots themselves with 2 on goal. Canada was able to generate 21 shots with 7 on goal in their two games, but were really stymied against the USA with just six shots and only two on goal. Meanwhile they allowed 25 shots with 5 on goal.
Long story short, both teams played in two very close games, both teams were outshot in their games and both teams played to draws. While I'll still agree that Canada is the better team at the end of the day, or at least the team with more potential, they simply aren't playing up to that standard yet. El Salvador will be happy to play out to another draw here and I think Canada will have a tough time breaking them down to win this thing by more than one goal.
TAKE EL SALVADOR +1.5
Line Parameter: 1% to +1.25

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jay McNeil

My Wednesday night comp play winner is on the Nationals and the Braves to put up enough crooked digits to get their game into the Over column once again tonight.

As we head down the stretch of the regular season, Washington has been involved in a bunch of games that have tended to produce plenty of fireworks, as the Nationals are on a 14-6-2 Over spree for their last 22 games played this season.

Last night's series Over made it 3 in a row between the division-rivals having landed Over the total and put the Over at 5-2 for the last 7 series meetings between the clubs.

With Sean Nolin's season ERA over 5 and Touki Toussaint's season ERA over 4, strong chance we see the runs add up at Truist Park for Wednesday night.

2* WASHINGTON-ATLANTA OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $24700 Class Rating: 82

FOR FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO STATE BRED RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 COLOR CHART 8/5
# 1 HOLMDEL PARK 3/1
# 3 SMART BROAD 9/2

COLOR CHART is tough to overlook as the bet in here. This mare has posted some nice finishes in her last couple of starts. Is worth a look and may be a wager - strong speed figures (65 average) at today's distance and surface lately. With a solid rider who has won at a very strong 33 percent rate over the last month. This has to be one of the top picks. HOLMDEL PARK - With a sound 69 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Change in Lasix (on Lasix) may be the means to a turnaround. SMART BROAD - Has been running very well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. She has a formidable distance/surface win record - 3 out of 7.