Saturday 9/18/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Sep 18 '21, 2:00 PM in 13h
NCAA-F | Nevada vs Kansas State
Play on: Nevada -120 at BetVegas

Don't be shocked if Nevada quarterback Carson Strong goes among the top 15 players in the 2022 NFL draft. Strong is that good and he's surrounded by excellent receiving weapons. The Wolfpack upset California on the road and they are slightly favored to turn the trick against Kansas State. I believe they can accomplish the feat as the Wildcats have to start backup redshirt freshman QB Will Howard. The Wildcats lost their starting QB, Skylar Thompson, to injury last week. The Wildcats are 12-6 when Thompson has been under center and 2-5 without him starting under Chris Klieman. Howard is more runner than passer. He has 185 career throws with an 8-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. It's not exactly a secret that Kansas State will be heavily run-oriented in this matchup. Nevada doesn't have that good of a run defense, but the Wolfpack will be stacking the line daring Howard to beat them through the air. I doubt he can do that. The Wildcats are going to have problems if they have to play from behind, which I anticipate. Strong is going against a Kansas State secondary that ranked 94th in pass efficiency defense last season and doesn't look improved this season. Opposing QB's completed 67.7 percent of their passes against the Wildcats in 2020. This season the Wildcats are permitting passers to complete 67.2 percent of their throws.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Sep 18 '21, 2:30 PM in 13h
NCAA-F | Purdue vs Notre Dame
Play on: Purdue +7½ -110 at Caesars

Play - Purdue (Game 137).
Edges - Boilermakers: 8-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points … Irish: 1-5 ATS last six as home favorites, and 2-6 ATS at home when coming off a home game. We recommend a 1* play on Purdue. Thank you and good luck as always.
> What a perfect way to start your Saturday than with Marc’s super-hot College Football Perfect System Club Play. It’s loaded with amazing winning situations, including the Perfect System Play from directly from his Perfect System Club. It’s locked and load - don’t miss out!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Hunter

Sep 18 '21, 2:30 PM in 13h
NCAA-F | Purdue vs Notre Dame
Play on: OVER 58 -108

*3 Star Free Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers have found a pretty good quarterback in Plummer. He knows Jeff Brohm's system well and is making much better decisions. Purdue has an elite receiver in Bell, and I think he can do damage against a questionable Notre Dame secondary.
Notre Dame's defense doesn't look the same this year. They lost their defensive coordinator Clark Lea, and they lost several key contributors from a year ago as well. Notre Dame has allowed 10 plays of 20 yards or more in just two games. That is against Florida State and Toledo (not elite offenses). Notre Dame ranks 121st out of 130 teams in the country at preventing explosive plays. Purdue should get some big gainers here.
The Notre Dame offense has been pretty good with Jack Coan at the signal caller spot. Purdue ranks 91st at preventing explosive plays despite having played only Oregon State and UConn. Not good. The Boilermakers defense is a major weakness and the Fighting Irish should be able to move the ball fairly easily in this game.
Take the over here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Sep 18 '21, 3:30 PM in 14h
NCAA-F | SMU vs Louisiana Tech
Play on: UNDER 66 -110

1* FREE INFO PLAY on SMU vs Louisiana Tech under 66 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joseph D'Amico

Sep 18 '21, 3:30 PM in 14h
NCAA-F | Alabama vs Florida
Play on: Alabama -14½ -100 at pinnacle

This Saturday we don’t just get paid, WE GET FILTHY RICH. This is just about the strongest college football card I have released in as far back as I can remember: 87% NO LIMIT, 64-26-1 TOUCHDOWN (1-0 TY), 17-4 ANNIHILATOR, and 27-7 CONSENSUS WINNER (2-0 TY). If you want to get filthy rich, then follow me here.
Free NCAAF WINNER: Alabama Crimson Tide.
Game 143.
12:30 pm pst.
Folks just like me, I’m gonna keep this analysis very short and extremely sweet. LOL Let’s put aside the fact that Alabama is the No. 1 team in the nation. Let’s also put aside the fact that Florida head coach, Dan Mullen is 0-10 in his career against ‘Bama top-dog, Nick Saban. Let’s even further put aside the fact that the Gators have some well-documented quarterback issues as starter, Emory Jones, who’s been less than stellar AHEM…264 YP, 2 TD’s, 4 INT’s …is starting here this Saturday.
Those were the bones, now I give you the meat guys. This is the first SEC matchup for Alabama and they love, and I mean I mean love… like a fat guy loves a buffet…they love to make an example of their early SEC opponents and make a statement to the rest of the conference. Florida is no match on either side if the ball here. This game gets ugly folks. Here’s a few ATS stats for you. The Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS their last eight conference games, 4-1 ATS their last five road games, and 5-2 ATS their last seven games vs. the Gators. Take Alabama here. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Sep 18 '21, 3:30 PM in 14h
NCAA-F | Alabama vs Florida
Play on: Alabama -14 -118 at pinnacle

1* Free Pick on Alabama -14 -118

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Sep 18 '21, 3:30 PM in 14h
NCAA-F | Florida State vs Wake Forest
Play on: Florida State +5 -110 at SC Consensus

Florida State suffered what maybe its most embarrassing loss in its history last week to FCS opponent Jacksonville State on a late score. The Seminoles previous to that were 97-0 SU as a favorite of 27 or more points dating back to 1976. FSU HC Norvell has no excuses, and if he does not have his team perform optimally this week, he's probably a goner. The Seminoles are 23-5 SU in this series and Im betting they come out with a chip on their shoulders and come out of this with a cover.
Florida State coach Mike Norvell described his team as "sick to their stomach" after losing to FCS Jacksonville State, and vowed his players wont quit on their season after loss to FCS side.
CFB Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA ST) - in conference games, off a upset loss as a double digit home favorite are 50-18 ATS L/29 seasons for a 74/% conversion rate.
Play on Florida State to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

Sep 18 '21, 4:00 PM in 15h
NCAA-F | Mississippi State vs Memphis
Play on: Memphis +3½ -110 at Mirage

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #162 Memphis Tigers over Mississippi State Bulldogs (4p.m., Saturday, September 18 ESPN2) This line is an overaction to the Bulldogs win last week against NC State. The Wolfpack did not show up for that game, especially on offense and were shell-shocked for the entire 60 minutes after the Bulldogs ran back the opening kick for a touchdown. Their offense struggled to move the football and will be a much different setting today at the Liberty Bowl with no cow bells. Memphis can score points and I am not sure if the Bulldogs can keep pace with them. Mississippi State is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Memphis is 17-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 26 home games. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend football card featuring top plays on Saturday and Sunday. Sign-up now and let 50 years of handicapping experience work for you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander

Sep 18 '21, 7:00 PM in 18h
NCAA-F | South Carolina vs Georgia
Play on: Georgia -31 -105 at pinnacle

1* NCAAF - S Carolina/Georgia FREE PICK on Georgia -18 (1st Half)
Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick is on the Georgia Bulldogs -18 in the 1st Half at home against the South Carolina Gamecocks (1H plays aren't allowed on the site, so I had to publish pick with the game spread...I don't love the -31 for the game nearly as much as I do the -18 for the half, but would lean that way if I had to).
Georgia is a team that I want to bet as much as possible, but sometimes the game spread just isn't the best option. You just never can feel good about laying 30 points against a conference opponent. It's just really hard to predict what's going to happen in garbage time once the starters have been pulled for the Bulldogs.
By just betting the 1H (rarely do teams ever pull their starters before the 3rd quarter), we can eliminate that garbage time. I just don't think it's asking much for Georgia to be up by at least 20 at the half against this South Carolina team.
The Gamecocks were extremely fortunate to win on the road last week against East Carolina. They only put up 20 points and 331 yards on the Pirates. They got no shot against this Bulldogs defense, which I firmly believe is the best defensive team in the entire country.
The other big thing here is that with this being Georgia's conference opener and conference home opener, it's a lot less likely they look past the Gamecocks.
Last year a less talented Georgia team beat South Carolina 45-16 on the road and outgained the Gamecocks 471 to 273 (led 28-10 at half...I think that's worst case here). Bet the Bulldogs -18 (1st Half) on Saturday!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Monohan

Sep 18 '21, 7:00 PM in 18h
NCAA-F | South Carolina vs Georgia
Play on: OVER 47 -109

OVER 47
Two SEC East teams will battle it out on Saturday when the Gamecocks visit the Bulldogs. Georgia, the #2 team in the country pounded UAB 56-7 last week. I like SC to get on the board tomorrow. They have enough weapons to be dangerous, but I just don't see them slowing the Bulldog offense down. Georgia can score in bunches, and with big plays. 3x plays over 60+ yards last week. Look for the high-octane passing attack to continue.
Some trends to consider. The total has gone over in 5 of South Carolina’s last 6 game on the road. The total has gone over in 6 of Georgia’s last 8 games against South Carolina.
Georgia wins big, and the total flies over 47.
Good Luck, Razor Ray
Saturday 5* FREE CFB O/U Play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti

Sep 18 '21, 7:30 PM in 18h
NCAA-F | Auburn vs Penn State
Play on: Penn State -5 -107 at pinnacle

Saturday card has an Executive Level TIER 1 Blowout Side, the ACC Total of the Year, 5* Afternoon Power system play headlining a Powerful CFB Card. We also have MLB and Soccer. Comp play below.
The College Football comp play is on Penn. St at 7:30 eastern. The Lions have covered 23 of 30 off back to back wins and 15 of 20 after scoring 40+ points last out as 9 of 11 covers at home vs a winning team. Auburn is in a play against System [pertaining to teams with a first year head coach playing their first road game off a win vs a team off a win. Auburn has failed to cover 11 straight on the road vs a team off back to back ats wins with a win percentage of .250 or better. The Tigers have failed to cover 5 of 6 vs Big 10 teams and the last 4 as a dog. Both are 2-0 but Penn. St has played tougher teams including a solid win on the road at Wisconsin. Look for a littany of Nittany today. On Saturday the ACC Total of the Year headlines the Card along with our Exclusive Executive Level TIER 1 Blowout, 5* Afternoon Power Play and Late night Banger, there is also MLB and Soccer. Jump on and cash out. For the College comp. Play on Penn. St. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Sep 18 '21, 8:00 PM in 19h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Ole Miss
Play on: Ole Miss -14 -110 at SC Consensus

FREE PICK - Ole Miss Rebels -14
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 196
This is one line that didn't make a lot of sense to me. I think Ole Miss at a minimum should be a 17.5-point favorite in this game. Success has followed Lane Kiffin ever since his 3-year stint with the Crimson Tide. He instantly turned FAU into a power in C-USA (were coming off 3 straight 3-win seasons and won 11 games in his first year on the job).
He took over Ole Miss last year in the midst of a pandemic and went 5-5 with a 9-game SEC schedule and a matchup with Indiana in a bowl (won 26-20). Their 4-5 record in conference play was the best in 5 years.
They got just about everyone back (16 returning starters), including star quarterback Matt Corral. The offense wasn't the problem last year. They averaged 39.2 ppg and scored 48 against Alabama. It was the defense that held them back.
They really thought they would be better on that side of the ball in 2021. So far, it looks to be the case. That defense played extremely well in their 43-24 win against Louisville. They really dominated until they took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half (Rebels led 29-3 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter). I don't think there's any doubt its improved.
Not only do I think people are sleeping on just how good this Ole Miss team is, but I think people see that Tulane only lost 35-40 at Oklahoma and just assume they will be able to keep it within 2 TD's. What they don't look at is how that game played out. The Sooners led 37-14 at the half and went on to score just 3-points in the 2nd half. Ole Miss is scoring at will against this defense.
I'm also not so sure that the Rebels aren't better than Oklahoma. I definitely don't think there's as big a gap between them as this line indicates. The Sooners were a 31-point home favorite, which is basically saying Ole Miss would be around a 17-point dog on a neutral site to Oklahoma.
I think the only way the Rebels don't win by 20 is if they don't show up to play. With a bye week on deck, there's no reason for them to not be 100% focused on getting this win. Keep in mind the fact that Tulane rallied to make it close vs Oklahoma will help keep Ole Miss from overlooking them. Give me the Rebels -14!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Sep 18 '21, 8:00 PM in 19h
Soccer | LA Galaxy vs Minnesota United
Play on: Minnesota United -105 at SC Consensus

1* Free Play on Minnesota United -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

Through Week 2, Mountain West programs have registered three victories over autonomous-5 opponents, including Nevada beating Pac 12-member Cal. The three A5 victories are the most by a nonautonomous-5 conference this season.

I'm laying the points with Nevada on Saturday, a slim number at Kansas State. Nevada has now won three of its last five against autonomous-5 opponents.

Since falling behind 14-0 to Cal in the season-opener, the Wolf Pack (2-0) have outscored the Bears and Idaho State 71-10.

And leading the charge for Nevada is a guy who I think can emerge as a top five quarterback in the next NFL Draft, Carson Strong. On the whole, the Pack ranks 31st in the nation with 479 yards per game, including an eighth-best 376.5 yards passing per contest. Strong has a no-fear mentality, and shows NFL-like poise. He's a big reason the Pack ride a 5-0 ATS streak into Manhattan.

Kansas State has laid its treads after two games with staunch defense. Problem is, this will be the best offense it's faced and Strong will be the best quarterback it faces this season. And when the Pack strikes, I don't see the Wildcats threatening much with their offense.

There's a part of me that also believes the Wildcats - who have failed to cover four of five against winning teams - will mistakenly look past and underestimate Nevada, with Oklahoma State on deck.

5* NEVADA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gus Augustine

I'll lay the points with the Iowa State Cyclones on the road against the UNLV Rebels, as this will be ugly when all said and done.

This is one of those games I would normally suggest playing in the first half, but the problem with the Rebels is they've shown us two different teams, one that showed up in the second half, and then one that showed up in the first half on the road at a ranked opponent.

In both, they failed.

And since Iowa State is in after a stinging lost to in-state rival Iowa, the Cyclones will be looking to take their aggression out on the hapless Rebels, who lost their starting quarterback Doug Brumfield and could be without him for awhile.

Sources in Vegas revealed it was a concussion, and later there were other sources who said Brumfield remained under close watch in Tempe, as he couldn't return to Las Vegas.

Waiting in the wings is Tate Martell, but there's no telling if Marcus Arroyo will pull the trigger, or use Justin Rogers, who has proven to be a horrible option under center.

If Martell plays, it will be an interesting dynamic, and it wouldn't shock me to see the total flair. But I still think inside Allegiant Stadium, with a reported 20,000+ Iowa State fans coming for this one, I am siding with Brock Purdy and that explosive offense to respond to last week's loss.

1* IOWA STATE