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Hollywood Anthony
Your Free Play from Hollywood
MLB Take Charlotte +4½
Your Free Play from Hollywood
MLB Take Charlotte +4½
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Tokyo Brandon
Event: (304639) Lotte Giants at (304640) Hanwha Eagles
Sport/League: KBO
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 4AM EDT
Play: Hanwha Eagles Total Over 3.5 (-128)
Get Brandon's entire Saturday card for $1. Details out soon.
Hanwha is not the best lineup in the league but against a shaky SP and terrible bullpen they should be able to get to their average of 4 runs a game. My numbers have it at 5.25 so make a small play on the Hanwha team total Over 3.5.Comment
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Bryan Leonard
Event: (125) Nebraska at (126) Oklahoma
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Oklahoma -22.0 (-110)
126 Nebraska at Oklahoma
The Huskers took advantage of playing a smaller team with a new coaching staff last week against the Buffalo Bulls. We expect Nebraska to look good in that game and they did. Now they step up to play one of the most talented teams in the nation. Oklahoma has a huge advantage in skill position talent and coaching. We expect this number to rise as the week moves forward. Lay it with the Sooners.
PLAY OKLAHOMAComment
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Gianni the Greek
Event: (121) Coastal Carolina at (122) Buffalo
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Coastal Carolina -13.0 (-110)Comment
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Adam Trigger
Event: (121) Coastal Carolina at (122) Buffalo
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Coastal Carolina -14.0 (-110)
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Coastal Carolina (12PM ET ESPN2) – The first couple weeks of college football have basically been a wash but I feel like I really have a beat on a handful of teams now and I’ll roll out my biggest CFB card of the season on Saturday. I’m going to have action morning to night and I’ll kick things off in the early wave of games when the #16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers head north to battle the Buffalo Bulls at UB Stadium in Buffalo, New York.
I laid it with Nebraska and cashed last weekend on a fade of Buffalo and I’m coming right back and doing the same thing here. Buffalo was a fade for me last season and the Bulls got significantly worse with head coach Lance Leipold leaving for the Kansas job and taking seven of his players with him I usually don’t go nuts over running backs because they are generally a dime a dozen but Jaret Patterson was a special player and a difference maker in the Buffalo offense. Buffalo now goes with Kevin Marks Jr at running back, he’s a serviceable backfield option but he’s not a gamechanger the way Patterson was and I see a substantial downgrade in the run game for Buffalo because of that. I talked about quarterback Kyle Vantrease being overrated last season and now he’s back with far less weapons including one of his top receivers, Jovany Ruiz, out for this game. Buffalo head coach Maurice Linguist was supposed to be co-defensive coordinator at Michigan this season but has found himself in a head coaching role in Buffalo despite never being more than a position coach. Buffalo lost 28-3 last weekend but it probably should have been a lot worse as the Bulls gave up 516 total yards to Nebraska in a game that could have been a far bigger blowout had the ‘Huskers not shot themselves in their own foot so many times. Coastal Carolina is elite (for a Group of 5 team), the Chants aren’t going to make many mistakes and I think that translates to a decisive win and cover of anything -14 or better on the road here.
I’m happy to fade this Buffalo team when it make sense but this is equally a play on a really good Coastal Carolina team for me. There will come a time this season where Coastal is just too inflated and I have to be on the other side but even after the line move here I think laying two touchdowns or less with the Chants is a bargain in this game. Coastal didn’t have to try at all in their season opener and rolled to a 52-14 win and cover over The Citadel. Kansas came out hot and lead after the first quarter in Conway last week but as soon as Coastal saw themselves trailing on the scoreboard they turned it up and never let off, running away with a 49-22 win which also covered the 26.5 point spread. Coastal will be on the road for the first time this season but I actually think that serves the Chants well here because I think this is the most focused they will be for any opponent yet this season. I have zero respect for this Buffalo team but they seem to be getting respect from the betting public as the general consensus is Buffalo is a decent team. Coastal doesn’t have another big non-conference opponent so my guess is the Chants have this one circled as their big non-conference game since it’s against a school from a bigger conference and on national TV. Coastal has been a little lax defensively early in games, presumably because they have been 20-30 point favorites, but I think the Chants view Buffalo as more of an equal and the Coastal defense will be on high alert from the outset. The only way Coastal Carolina doesn’t cover the number here is if the Chants give up a bunch of points to Buffalo. There are a couple strong systems that play on the UNDER here, I think that points to Coastal having a solid defensive game and even a few stops from the Chanticleers are going to allow Coastal to open it up here.
Coastal is now averaging over 50 points per game and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Chants at least crack 40 again here. As I stated earlier, Buffalo only gave up 28 points to Nebraska but that should have been a lot worse since the Bulls allowed a whopping 516 yards of total offense. Coastal is as efficient of an offense as you will find in the country led by Grayson McCall who is completing a ridiculous 82.5 percent of his passes this season. Coastal is capable of running the ball as well and I have the Chants as a superior team to Nebraska yet we are still having to cover the same number here. There’s obviously a line adjustment for Buffalo being at home but I’ve been to that stadium before and I don’t think it’s an outrageously difficult atmosphere at Noon ET on a Saturday. If Coastal Carolina slips up it’s going to be in conference play against an opponent that really knows them, Buffalo doesn’t and I think the Chanticleers will be able to do what they want offensively and string together enough stops to pull away here.
I know there were better numbers available in this one but we didn’t go across any insanely key numbers so I’m still willing to lay it with Coastal here. We laid a similar number with Nebraska last week after a similar line move and that one was never really in question. I have a feeling we are cashing via a Coastal win by a similar margin here. Play on Coastal Carolina -14 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)Comment
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Bryan Leonard
Event: (119) Virginia Tech at (120) West Virginia
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Total Under 50.0 (-110)
120 Virginia Tech at West Virginia
PLAY UNDERComment
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Bobby Ligs
Event: (131) Minnesota at (132) Colorado
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Minnesota +2.5 (-105)Comment
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Teddy Covers
Event: (137) Purdue at (138) Notre Dame
Sport/League: CFB (See all free college-football picks)
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Notre Dame -7.0 (-115)
Take Notre Dame (#138)
Yes, the Fighting Irish are 0-2 against the spread; gashed defensively in each of their first two games of the season. And, yes, Purdue’s Jeff Brohm is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog since arriving in West Lafayette. But let’s dig a little deeper.
Brohm’s 7-1 ATS record as a road dog at Purdue includes four games from 2017 – his first year on the job -- and three since. Purdue lost 35-7 at Penn State at +28.5 = pointspread cover. They lost 45-24 at Wisconsin at +24 = pointspread cover. And they were +18 at ‘we struggle to score’ Iowa, hanging within the number there as well. NONE of those seven previous ATS covers as a road dog give me confidence that Purdue can step up in class and hang within single digits at Notre Dame.
Then we turn to the Irish side of the equation. Here’s the quote that matters from head coach Brian Kelly, from Thursday’s press conference: “The first two weeks of the season were not typical in-season preparation…We had been in a long camp. I wanted to make sure that we didn’t have ‘camp legs’ so you’re not really ramping things up going into that week (vs Florida State in their opener). Then we came off the short week into Week 2, so you’ve really affected two weeks with the Sunday game and this is the first week where we’re really in the routine. So we’re able to get after it the way we normally do. Tuesday and Wednesday were what we’re used to in terms of traditional practices leading up to a Saturday game…we raised our level of preparation this week.” I’m not expecting a defensive meltdown this time around, with the Irish primed for their best showing of the young season here. Take Notre Dame.Comment
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Dave Cokin
Event: (145) Florida State at (146) Wake Forest
Sport/League: CFB (See all free college-football picks)
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Florida State +6.5 (-110)
22-6 on all 2020-21 5% plays. 12-1 College Football 5% Plays going back to October 2019. #1 All-Time at WagerTalk College Football win percentage and net profits. #1 net profits all-sports in 2021 at +178.53. Winner with Sunday's NFL 5% play. And here's Dave Cokin's first 2021 College Football 5% play!
Florida State hits the road following a rock bottom upset loss to Jacksonville State. By no means do I think the Seminoles are a good football team. And there's every chance they could be in the toilet for the season if they take another loss here. At the very least, Mike Norvell figures to have his team prepped to play after what looms as a very intense week of practice. The good news is FSU is not exactly facing a powerhouse in Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are 2-0 but they haven't looked particularly sharp in dispatching a terrible Old Dominion entry and FCS Norfolk State. One thing that's set is that McKenzie Milton is now the starting QB for FSU. Norvell made that clear as he released his depth chart for the game this week. I like the fact it's not going to be a situation where it's not clear who's getting the first team reps in practice. More than anything, I am betting this on my numbers. My power ratings do not radically adjust off one result and my projections have this game Wake Forest -2. That's a pretty good differential on a line that's less than a TD and unless there's something on info that takes me off a game I'm generally going to play based on value, particularly with an underdog. I can pretty much guarantee that if the 'Noles fail here, you won't see them on my playlist again anytime soon but I'm going to take them here. Florida State plus the points is the wager.Comment
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Al Cimaglia: Mohawk Trotting Classic & Elegantimage Analysis
September 18, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, there is another giant card ready to roll at Woodbine Mohawk Park. The headliner goes in Race 10, the Canadian Trotting Classic with a $606,500 purse. The co-feature Elegantimage is carded as Race 5 and has a field of ten 3-year-old filly trotters battling for a share of a $414,000 Purse.
There is an Xpressbet/1st Bet promo on the Canadian Trotting Classic for those who register. Get up to $10 back on win bets which finish 2nd or 3rd in that race.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 5-Elegantimage -$414,000 Purse
5-Donna Soprano (7/2)-Made a break in the Casual Breeze on 9-3 and rebounded with a big trip win in the Simcoe. No doubt #7 is a truly fine filly but this gal is in sharp form. So, will look for some value and hope a home field advantage kicks-in.
7-Bella Bellini (8/5)-This Nifty Norman pupil is no doubt worthy of morning line favoritisms but hasn't raced at Mohawk. Has done good work on the big oval at M1 and could be the best here as well. Shouldn't be overlooked and the long stretch won't hurt chances but should offer a small price.
9-HP Mama B (9/2)-Mama has been the model of consistency this season hitting the board in 8 of 9 with 6 wins. Likes to get on the engine and that will probably be the plan again. Using in exotics and best to respect chances to hit the ticket.
8-Up And Ready (15-1)-Made a rare break in last but will look for a rebound to spice up the Superfecta. Has hit the board in 8 of 10 this year with 1 win. McNair should keep in range to cash a check as this 3-year-old has banked over $305k and has only taken 2 pictures.
$10 to Win on 5, $8 Exacta Box 5-7, $5 Exacta Box 5-9
Total Bet=$36
Race 10-Canadian Trotting Classic-$606,500 Purse
6-Fashion Frenzi (3-1)-Moreau trainee has won 3 straight and has been in the money in 7 of 9 starts this year with 5 pictures. This is another local hopeful who has won 9 of 13 at Mohawk. Recent form is top notch and has been too good to shoot against on this oval.
4-In Range (9/2)-Melander trainee makes its 1st start at Wbsb and should offer a solid price. Using in gimmicks, could be better on a large oval and Tetrick should keep this Bar Hopping colt in the mix.
7-Spy Booth (4-1)-Broke its maiden in the Zweig coming off the pace and the race set up nicely for this Takter trainee. Dunn is back in the bike, shouldn't offer much value and will look for a bottom of the ticket finish.
1-Ahundreddollarbill (5/2)-Alagna trainee was on a nice roll racing on smaller ovals out East but was a sick scratch in the NYSS Final at Yonkers. Not feeling the risk reward at the morning line and has not raced since 8-21. Does have big speed when right but would have felt better about chances with a recent qualifier happening.
$10 Win on 6, $10 Exacta Key 6/4,7
Total Bet=$30
Comment
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Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 9/18/21
September 18, 2021
Woodbine – Race 9. Post time: 5:35 ET
2 – Walton Street (8/5)
On paper this high class European veteran clearly lays over this field based on his outstanding 2021 form that has produced two major stakes wins in Dubai, a highly-respectable fourth place finish behind Mishriff in the Sheema Classic-G1, and then a solid third place effort in a Grade-1 event in Germany last month. The C. Appleby-trained gelding attracts F. Dettori and projects to enjoy an ideal-pace stalking trip and then have every chance in the long run from the top of the lane to the wire to exert his superiority. We’ll make hm a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 8/5.
Churchill Downs – Race 8. Post time: 9:39 ET
4 – Ontheonesandtwos (5/2)
Was below her best form when unplaced in the Adirondack S.-G2 at Saratoga in July but has trained exceptionally well in recent weeks to indicate the daughter of Jimmy Creed can bounce back in a huge way with the return to Churchill Downs, where she was a smart debut winner in May and then a sharp runner-up in the Debutante S. the following month. This stretch-out in trip should be well within her scope, and with the switch to speed specialist R. Santana, Jr. we’re expecting the N. Casse-trained filly to be on or near the lead throughout. At 5/2 on the morning line, she represents gold wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
Churchill Downs – Race 9. Post time: 10:11 ET
6 - Stellar Tap (3-1)
Loved the way he graduated at first asking at Saratoga last month when pressing the pace to the head of the lane and then kicking to score with complete authority in a race that already has proven to be productive. The S. Asmussen-trained colt should enjoy this two-turn middle distance while projecting to be either on the front end or in an ideal stalk-and-pounce position. His recent workouts have been extra sharp so despite this raise in class to Grade-3 company the son of Tapit looks quite capable of winning right back.Comment
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Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Saturday at Woodbine
September 18, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
There's no topping the Woodbine card on this Saturday, most notably because of the $250,000-guaranteed Late Pick 4 that includes a pair of Grade 1 races in the Canadian International and the Woodbine Mile.
The Canadian International kicks off the sequence as the ninth race (5:35 p.m. ET) and is followed by the Woodbine Mile as the 10th (6:12 p.m. ET). Those are some strong races, and when you get past those, you’ll be looking at a couple of highly competitive $40,000 races as the 11th (6:47 p.m. ET) and the 12th (7:17 p.m. ET).
From start to finish, nothing looks easy in this sequence.
Here’s a look at a $57.60 suggested ticket on the 20-cent exotic play:
9th Race (5:35 P.M. ET, Canadian International-G1)
WALTON STREET comes from the Charles Appleby barn, and that’s not a bad place as far as Europe-to-North America shippers have succeeded this year.
Appleby won turf stakes at Belmont and Saratoga and has a good chance to transfer that success to Woodbine with this Godolphin runner. He was third in a Grade 1 in Germany and had a three-win win streak from September through March (one win at Newmarket, two at Dubai-Meydan).
He gets the riding services of Frankie Dettori, and that should always get your attention in international affairs.
Also on the ticket: DESERT ENCOUNTER, FANTASIOSO.
10th Race (6:12 p.m. ET, Woodbine Mile-G1)
MARCH TO THE ARCH was the 2020 Woodbine Mile runner-up behind the great mare Starship Jubilee and was closing third in the G2 King Edward going a mile last out. He had a remarkable run from 13 lengths back to win the Niagara stakes two back. He followed fractions of :45 1-5, 1:07 1-5 and 1:32 1-5 before finishing the nine furlongs in a sizzling 1:45.
He’s at the top of the game for Mark Casse and this is where he does his best running.
Also on the ticket: OLYMPIC RUNNER, MARCH TO THE ARCH, RIDE A COMET, SET PIECE, RAGING BULL, SPACE TRAVELLER.
11th Race (6:47 p.m. ET, claiming)
IKERRIN ROAD leads the first of two $40,000 claiming races that end the Pick 4 and Woodbine Mile card.
He has been solid in his last two with a second and third and could be ready to win for the first time in two years.
Trainer Vito Armata has had a solid season with a 7-of-27 record, and the distance looks good for his sprinter here.
Also on the ticket: SOLIDIFY, DIXIE’S GAMBLE, SPEEDY HANS.
12th Race (7:17 p.m. ET, claiming)
FLYING CURLIN drops out of an allowance race here and has run against tough rivals at Aqueduct and Fair Grounds. Mark Casse has his Curlin gelding in the lowest level he’s seen and can wake up in this spot.
Also on the ticket: SPEED WAY, SOUPER RIVER, KID FORESTER.
Woodbine 20-cent Late Pick Four:
9) #2 Walton Street, #3 Desert Encounter, #6 Fantasioso.
10) #2 Olympic Runner, #3 March to the Arch, #4 Ride a Comet, #5 Set Piece, #7 Raging Bull, #10 Space Traveller.
11) #1 Ikerrin Road, #4 Solidify, #5 Dixie’s Gamble, #8 Speedy Hans.
12) #1 Speed Way, #5 Souper River, #10 Flying Curlin, #13 Kid Forester.
The ticket: 2-3-6 with 2-3-4-5-7-10 with 1-4-5-8 with 1-5-10-13 ($57.60).Comment
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The Prez
Event: (151) Tulsa at (152) Ohio State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Total Over 61.0 (-105)
151 Tulsa Hurricanes at 152 Ohio State Buckeyes -25, 61
The days when style points were critical in college football have returned. Nationally recognized teams that suffer a loss in the first two weeks of the season are subject to the unwritten rules of what it takes to be a part of College Football Playoffs. Those unwritten rules include being dynamic on both sides of the ball and winning the game by a large margin.
Ohio State failed on three fourth downs a week ago at "The Shoe," and the result of closing the game with a minus-4 turnover margin was the first regular-season loss for third-year head coach Ryan Day.
Ohio State lost despite gaining 612 yards of total offense, including 484 through the air behind the performance of freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud. Stroud has the best receiving group in college football. Three future NFLers with the skillset and the speed to make the best defenses in the Power-5 look pedestrian. The free pick is a play on OVER the game TOTAL of 61 points.Comment
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Kevin Dolan
Event: (161) Mississippi State at (162) Memphis
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Memphis +3.0 (+100)
We're taking the Memphis Tigers on Saturday against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Memphis are averaging 48.5 ppg to open up the season (only behind Auburn) so will be full of confidence returning home ahead of this one.
Mississippi State took care of business as home underdogs last week against a very good NC State team but travel on the road for the first time this season into a packed Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium.
While the Bulldogs rush defense has been good this year, they face a Tigers team averaging 7.1 yards per rush attempt against FBS opponents this year, far superior to what they've faced prior in NC State and La Tech and that could well prove the decider here.
Take Memphis plus the points on Saturday to win and cover at home against Mississippi State in what should be a great game down in Tennessee.
PLAY: MEMPHIS +3Comment
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Marco D'Angelo
Event: (159) Georgia Southern at (160) Arkansas
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 18, 2021 4PM EDT
Play: Georgia Southern +23.5 (-110)
Bad scheduling spot for Arkansas who comes in here off a monumental win over Texas last week and has Texas A&M on deck. Is Arkansas the better team? Of coarse they are but playing this game in between those two powerhouse teams is asking too much. Arkansas may be feeling a little Fat n Sassy on Saturday and that's not good when you are laying 23.5 points. Arkansas wins but not nearly enough to cover this big number.
TAKE GEORGIA SOUTHERN +23.5Comment
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