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NCAAF
Dunkel
Week 3
Dunkel
Week 3
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College Football Week 3 Money Moves
Micah Roberts
We’ve got a few big games in college football’s week 3 action that will surely get the bettors clinging to a side whether it’s Alabama at Florida, Auburn at Penn State, or early bettors taking Tulsa on a 6.5 point ride betting against Ohio State.
“We’re expecting great handle again this week,” said Las Vegas SuperBook manager Randy Blum. “These bettors were a little apprehensive in the first week, but they came strong last week, and we’re seeing similar trends this week.”
Surprisingly, only because I remember decades of games between Nebraska and Oklahoma always being the game of the year, their 87th meeting Saturday hasn’t drawn any interest as the Sooners have been -22 all week at most books.
Station Casinos sportsbook VP Jason Mccormick said their sharpest plays this week have been on Colorado, North Texas (+14 vs. UAB), and Kansas State (+3 vs. Nevada) which all happened after Circa Sports let bettors punch away at early numbers for low limits when opening Sunday at 11 am PT.
Circa opened Minnesota -3 and were pick ‘em by the end of the day. Colorado has been bet up almost everywhere to the 3-point favorite. The Gophers lost star senior RB Mohamed Ibrahim two weeks ago due to a leg injury against Ohio State, but the uncertainty here appears to be what to make of the Buffaloes performance last week in a 10-7 loss against Texas A&M who played with a backup QB for most of the game.
The Kansas State sharp wagers are just a matter of the books and the bettors disagreeing on how much of a difference there is between starting QB Skylar Thompson being out Saturday against Nevada with a leg injury and backup sophomore Will Howard who had lots of snaps last season. Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White says the difference is worth 4.5-point down from Thompson.
The Las Vegas SuperBook has only seen a few sharps make wagers through Thursday afternoon.
“We don’t have a lot of sharp bets in yet, but we did see significant play on Coastal Carolina (at Buffalo) forcing us to move from -11 to -14,” said Blum. “We also saw action on Stanford (at Vanderbilt) that moved us from -10.5 to -12. Eastern Michigan (at U-Mass) moves from -18 to -22, but that was more of a market move for us.”
Then there’s the cautionary move with the market’s number even though no action has forced it. The air move when questions persist about a key player’s health. Keep the book safe, while also giving out a few extra points on the other side for those that want it.
“We moved Utah from -7 to -9, but it was just a precautionary move based on public perception seeing that San Diego State’s quarterback was questionable or didn’t practice,” Blum said. “We didn’t take any action on it either way.”
Aztecs QB Jordan Brookshire didn’t practice Monday and Tuesday and if he doesn’t start Saturday at home (Carson, CA), sixth-year senior backup QB Lucas Johnson will get the start. Johnson appeared to be the front runner for the starting job coming out of spring. There’s really not a dropoff between the two. Most books are still sitting with Utah -9. If it’s announced Brookshire is indeed out, expect another short rise in the number.
But it’s the big games driving the traffic to the books this week. Penn State has won and covered six straight since last season and Auburn has averaged 61 ppg in their first two games.
“Our largest handled game of the week so far is Auburn at Penn State and it’s had great two-way action so far,” Blum said. “We opened Penn State -7 but moved fast downward. Most of all the action on both sides is just the general public.”
Just an FYI on the Penn State game: It starts at 7:30 pm ET and every attending Beaver Stadium has been notified to wear white for the white-out under the lights. Sounds intimidating. Ask yourself why this total has dropped from 53.5 down to 50 when one of the teams has averaged 61 points in two games.
We saw Florida give Alabama a scare in the SEC Championship game last season. The Tide still won, 52-46, but the +16 on a neutral field had Florida bettors cheering with no sweat. Florida’s QB from last season is gone, but so is Alabama’s.
“Alabama at Florida doesn’t have any sharp play yet but we’re seeing good two way action,” Blum said. “I think they (sharps) have a side they like but want to wait until their desired number finally shows before they bet.”
It’s interesting to note that two of the three new QBs at elite programs have already lost with CJ Stroud at Ohio State and DJ Uiagalelei at Clemson. Alabama’s Bryce Young is going to get his first SEC road test at Gainesville. It’s a big step but most bettors are taking a side based on how he does in that spicey environment.
Atlantis Reno sportsbook director Marc Nelson said his top public plays for Saturday are Cincinnati (-3.5 at Indiana), Iowa (-22 vs Kent State), and Alabama. McCormick at Stations has two of those three with Marshall (-10 vs. ECU) instead of Iowa.
Lots of total movement this week but Blum recalled one of his sharp bettors seeking out one game.
“We had sharp money bet a total hard,” Blum said. “They bet the over in Utah State at Air Force pushing us from 50.5 to 54.”
Here’s a look at some of Circa Sports biggest Week 3 moves:
Liberty from -23 to -29 to -27.5 vs. Old Dominion
Arkansas -18 to -23.5 vs. Georgia Southern
Colorado +3 to -3 vs. Minnesota
U-Mass +21 to +17 vs. Eastern Michigan
UTSA -9 to -13 vs. Middle Tennessee State
Tulsa +31 to +24.5 at Ohio State
Baylor -14 to -17.5 at Kansas
San Jose State -3 to -6.5 at Hawaii
Texas A&M -25 to -30 vs. New Mexico
Michigan -24 to -26.5 vs. Northern IllinoisComment
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CLEVELAND is 11-3 SU (11.1 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season in th...
BALTIMORE is 16-39 SU (-24.7 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.
CINCINNATI is 4-23 SU (-19.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the current season.
MINNESOTA is 31-66 SU (-42.3 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.
WASHINGTON is 5-17 SU (-17.1 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the current season.
TAMPA BAY is 49-24 SU (25.4 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.
PITTSBURGH is 6-19 SU (-19.8 Units) in road games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities in the curr...
CHI WHITE SOX is 15-5 SU (12.2 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=38%) in the current season.
KANSAS CITY is 18-33 SU (-18.8 Units) with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) in the current season.
ARIZONA is 7-24 SU (-20.8 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start in the current...
NY METS are 6-25 SU (-22.8 Units) vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season in the c...
MILWAUKEE is 45-22 SU (27.9 Units) vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better in the current season.
SAN DIEGO is 13-29 SU (-20.2 Units) vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season in the...
SAN FRANCISCO is 46-21 SU (29.7 Units) vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities in the current season.
OAKLAND is 42-21 SU (26.3 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.
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MLB
Dunkel
Saturday, September 18
Comment
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MLB
Saturday, September 18
Trend Report
Cleveland @ NY Yankees
Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Cleveland is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
NY Yankees is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Baltimore @ Boston
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Boston
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston
Boston is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers @ Cincinnati
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games
Minnesota @ Toronto
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto
Toronto is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Colorado @ Washington
Colorado
Colorado is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Colorado is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Washington's last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing at home against Colorado
Detroit @ Tampa Bay
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit's last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Detroit
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh @ Miami
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Chi White Sox @ Texas
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Chi White Sox is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Texas's last 18 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox
Arizona @ Houston
Arizona
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Arizona is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
Seattle @ Kansas City
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 13 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games when playing at home against Seattle
Philadelphia @ NY Mets
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Chi Cubs @ Milwaukee
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
Chi Cubs is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
San Diego @ St. Louis
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games on the road
St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta @ San Francisco
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 11 games on the road
Atlanta is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games
San Francisco is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Oakland @ LA Angels
Oakland
Oakland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Angels
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 7 games when playing Oakland
LA Angels is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 gamesComment
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Diamond Trends for Saturday September 18
Vince Akins
SU Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (7:15 p.m. ET)
-- The Brewers are 14-0 this season as a home favorite of at least -200 when facing a starter with an ERA under 7.20.
SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Colorado at Washington (4:05 p.m. ET)
-- The Rockies are 0-9 on the road when the total is at least 9 coming off a game where they scored at least 9 runs.
OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: L.A. Dodgers at Cincinnati (2:10 p.m. ET)
-- The Reds are 7-0-1 OU since August 2017 coming off a multi-run win as a home dog where they scored no more than five runs.
Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (7:15 p.m. ET)
-- Corbin Burnes is 8-0 since May 31 when starting at home.
Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)Comment
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