Sunday 9/19/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joseph D'Amico

Sep 19 '21, 8:20 PM in 18h
NFL | Chiefs vs Ravens
Play on: OVER 54½ -105

I was 7-2 in NFL preseason action and went 2-1 last Sunday. This Sunday I settle for nothing less than perfection: NFL HIGH ROLLER which are 1-0 this season (60 % LY) and my 62-14 LAS VEGAS STRIP MOVE (1-0 TY). Come with me here and LET’S BE PERFECT!
Sunday’s NFL FREE WINNER: OVER in the Chiefs/Ravens matchup.
Games 295/296.
5:20 pm pst.
Once this game is in the books, the electrical crew at M&T Stadium are going to need to change out all the light bulbs in the scoreboards because these two teams are gonna’ score so many points, bulbs are gonna’ burn out folks. Sports fans, once again the Chiefs are all OFFENSE, OFFENSE, and what else…oh yeah… OFFENSE. They put up 33 points on the Browns in their season opener. While allowing Cleveland to post 29 points on them. I was in attendance this past Monday Night at Allegiant Stadium as 60 points were scored by the Raiders and Ravens. Baltimore is supposed to have a good defense. But I saw a very disorganized Las Vegas offense accomplish big play after big play. Well, the best big play team in the NFL is coming to town here. Neither team is going to let up offensively especially when neither defense can stop the opposing offense from scoring. Look for both Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson to have probably one of their best games this year. The last four meetings in this series, have seen three overs. The over is 16-6 in KC’s L22 in the month of September, 4-1 in their L5 vs. the AFC, 4-1 in the Ravens L5 at home, and 11-5 in their L16 vs. the AFC. Take the over. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: The Red Mile Pick 5 Analysis

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September 19, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
This afternoon The Red Mile has eight $250,000 stakes scheduled as two-and-three-olds will be taking part in the Kentucky Championship Series Finals. The 0.50 Pick 5 starts in Race 2, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 2

3-Pebble Beach (4/5)-Winner in 5 of 6 has had his way with this kind with the only loss coming to Caviart Camden and that was by a neck in a 148.3 losing effort. TMac has options, could beat this field taking control early on or could come off a helmet as in last. Looks like a winner with a decent trip and has an explosive brush.

Race 3

1-Cuatro De Julio (4-1)-Competitive colt has been in the money in 16 of 22 lifetime starts. Seems to be always in the hunt down the lane unless buried with a bad post or makes a break. Trotted home in 54.1 with a snappy 26.1 last quarter to take a picture versus 4 from this field on 9-7. Will look for another big effort at a fair price.
7-Venerate (3-1)-Julie Miller trainee had issues this year but has looked more like herself in the last 2 races. One of these starts Andy Miller may leave but has a shot either way. There is speed on the inside and the fractions could be lively, so best to not overlook. Trotted the 2nd half in 54.2 in last, to lose to the one above by only a nose.

Race 4

1-Lady Chaos (7/2)-Races better near the top of the stack and in the last 2 the post draws haven't been too kind. Might get overlooked at the windows and Dave Miller should have in play as soon as the wings fold. Needs the right trip and has a good chance of getting one.
2-Empressive Hill (3-1)-This is probably the fastest trotter in the field has won 5 of 7 in 2021. But does throw a few steps in every now and then, which was the case in her last race. Went off at 1/2 that day and was in against most of this field, so the 3-1 morning line seems generous.
5-Beltassima (9/5)-Beat #3 at an 8-1 price and led from gate to wire in last. Has been tagged today as the 9/5 program chalk and has hit the board in 7 of 10 at Lex with 5 pictures. Should be a main player.

Race 5

4-Thebeachiscalling (2-1)-There was no beating #6 on 9-12 as she cruised home in 147.1 and was 7 lengths better than this filly who finished 2nd. But if the odds-on choice doesn't have her fast ball this gal has faced top competition out East. My guess is Dunn will be closer to the lead turning for home in her 2nd start at the Red Mile.
6-Blue Diamond Eyes (1-1)-Looked like a jet plane before takeoff in last and anything close to that effort will be enough for the top check. But that sizzling mile was only 6 days ago and much faster than any effort this year.

Race 6

1-Goldie Legacy (7/5)-Cullipher pupil has been razor sharp in the last 5 races and is looking for the 3rd straight picture. Wins by being on the point and Gingras will be out and winging to protect the rail.
2-Komodo Beach (3-1)-Pelling trainee has been a bridesmaid in the last 2 starts and gets a chance for some revenge over #1. Using instead of the morning line chalk #4 who is only 1-7 at Lex and recent form has been dull. This son of Somebeachsomewhere could get a pocket ride and then roll by #1 down the lane as was the case on 8-22.


0.50 Pick 5

3/1,7/1,2,5/4,6/1,2
Total Bet=$12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Sunday games
New Orleans (1-0) @ Carolina (1-0)
— Saints pasted Green Bay 38-3 LW; Winston threw 5 TD passes.
— Saints are 18-6 ATS in last 24 games on natural grass.
— Last 3 years, New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in NFC South road games.
— Saints are 2-9 ATS in last 11 road openers.
— Saints had five assistant coaches test positive for COVID this week.
— Last 5 years, New Orleans is 16-6 ATS as a road favorite.

— Panthers held Jets to 45 yards rushing, beat them 19-14 LW.
— Panthers outgained Jets 381-252, led 16-0 at halftime.
— Darnold threw for 279 yards in his Carolina debut.
— Last two years, Carolina is 0-6 ATS at home vs NFC South rivals.
— Last 4+ years, over is 20-13 in Panther home games.
— Last 2 years, Carolina is 1-5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

— Saints won eight of last nine series games.
— New Orleans won last four visits to Charlotte by average of 30-10.
— Underdogs are 5-2 ATS last seven series games.

Houston (1-0) @ Cleveland (0-1)
— Texans ran ball for 160 yards, beat Jaguars 37-21 LW.
— Houston converted 12-21 on third down, were +3 in turnovers.
— Last three years, Texans are 9-6 ATS as road underdogs.
— Texans covered three of last four road openers.
— Over last decade, Houston is 2-3 ATS as double digit underdogs.
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten road openers.

— Browns blew 22-10 lead, lost 32-29 at Kansas City LW.
— Browns ran for 153 yards, were -2 in turnovers, only 2-7 on 3rd down.
— Cleveland is 0-7 ATS as a favorite in their home opener.
— Browns are 11-15-1 ATS in last 27 games as home favorite.
— Browns were double digit favorite once in last 10 years (W41-24, -10.5)
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.

— Houston won five of last six series games.
— Browns (-4) beat Texans 10-7 LY; both TD’s were in 4th quarter.
— Texans lost three of five visits to Cleveland.

Cincinnati (1-0) @ Chicago (0-1)
— Cincinnati edged Minnesota 27-24 in OT last week.
— Bengals converted only 3-14 on third down vs Vikings.
— Last 20 years; Bengals are 7-2 ATS in Week 2 if they won in Week 1.
— Bengals are 8-13 ATS last 21 games vs NFC opponents.
— Bengals covered six of last seven road openers.
— Over is 10-2 in their last dozen road openers.

— Chicago (+7.5) lost 34-14 in Los Angeles LW.
— Bears are 2-4 ATS last six road openers.
— Last four years, Chicago is 5-8 ATS as home favorite.
— Bears are 2-5 ATS in last seven home openers.
— Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven home openers.
— Dalton started 133 games for Bengals (70-61-2, 2011-19)

— Bears won last two series games, but are 5-6 overall vs Cincy.
— Bengals won four of six visits to Chicago.

Las Vegas (1-0) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
— Tough scheduling spot for Raiders, after Monday nite home game.
— Las Vegas threw for 409 yards in their OT win Monday.
— Last two years, Raiders are 7-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— Las Vegas is 6-1-1 ATS in last eight road openers.
— Raiders converted 7-15 on 3rd down Monday, Ravens only 3-12.
— Over was 6-2 in Raider road games LY.

— Steelers won opener 23-16 in Buffalo; they were down 10-0 at half.
— Steelers blocked punt for a TD last week.
— Pitt converted only 4-12 on third down, Buffalo 8-18.
— Last 8 years, Pittsburgh is 28-23 ATS as home favorites.
— Pittsburgh is 10-6 ATS last 16 home openers (0-3 last three)
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 home openers.

— Raiders won five of last seven series games; teams last met in ’18.
— Raiders lost 35-3/38-35 in last two visits here; their last win here was in ’09.

Buffalo (0-1) @ Miami (1-0)
— Bills lost opener 23-16 to Steelers LW; they led 10-0 at half.
— Buffalo outgained Steelers 371-252, but had punt blocked for TD.
— Last 3 years, Bills are 5-3 ATS as road favorite.
— Buffalo is 11-8 ATS in last 19 road openers.
— McDermott is 17-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
— Over was 5-1-2 in Buffalo road games LY.

— Miami won opener 17-16 at New England last week.
— Dolphins were outgained 393-259 in Foxboro LW.
— Last five years, Miami is 14-8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Tagovailoa is 7-3 SU as Miami’s starting QB.
— Dolphins are 6-3 ATS in last nine home openers.
— Over is 11-1 in their last dozen home openers.

— Buffalo won last five series games, four of them by 10+ points.
— Bills waxed Miami 56-26 in Week 17 LY.
— Buffalo won four of last six visits to South Beach.

LA Rams (1-0) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
— Rams won opener 34-14; Stafford threw for 321 yards, 3 TD’s.
— Rams averaged 11.6 yards/pass attempt last week.
— Under McVay, Rams are 4-0 SU in road openers (3-1 ATS).
— Last four years, Rams are 8-8 ATS vs AFC opponents.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-10 ATS as road favorites.
— Over is 6-4 in last ten road openers.

— Colts lost 28-16 at home to Seattle LW.
— Seahawks averaged 9.3 yards/pass attempt.
— Last 5+ years, Indy is 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Wentz is 35-34-1 as an NFL starter.
— Colts are 17-7-1 ATS last 25 games vs NFC opponents.
— Under is 19-14 in their last 33 home games.

— Rams won last two series games, 38-8/46-9.
— Rams split four visits to Indianapolis.
— McVay’s first game as Rams’ coach was 46-9 win over Indy in 2017.

San Francisco (1-0) @ Philadelphia (1-0)
— 49ers won opener 41-33 at Detroit; they led 38-10 at one point.
— 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt LW, were minus-2 in turnovers.
— Niners are 5-4 ATS last nine games as road favorite.
— 49ers had eight plays of 20+ yards LW, tied for most in NFL
— Last 4+ years, over is 18-15 in 49er road games.
— 49ers stayed east this week, at Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia.

— Eagles won opener 32-6 in Atlanta, running ball for 173 yards.
— Eagles outgained Falcons 434-260, held Atlanta to 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Philly is only NFL team that hasn’t allowed a play of 20+ yards.
— Last 5 years, Eagles are 8-4 ATS as home underdogs.
— Philly won four of last five home openers.
— Last five years, under is 28-12 in Eagle home games.

— Eagles won seven of last nine series games.
— Philly (+9) won 25-20 @ San Francisco LY.
— 49ers lost three of last four visits to Philadelphia.

Denver (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)
— Denver (-3) won its opener 27-13 at the Giants LW.
— Denver ran for 165 yards, outgained Giants 420-314.
— Last six times they won their opener, Denver also won in Week 2.
— Bridegwater is now 27-24 as an NFL starting QB.
— Last 4 years, Broncos are 4-6 ATS as road favorites.
— Last 3+ years, under is 16-9 in Denver road games.

— Jaguars (-3) were minus-3 in turnovers, lost 37-21 in Houston LW.
— Texans converted 12-21 on 3rd down, outgained Jaguars 449-395.
— Last two years, Jacksonville is 5-7 ATS as home underdogs.
— Jaguars covered their last four home openers (2-2 SU)
— Rookie QB Lawrence threw for 332 yards in his NFL debut.
— Under is 11-6 in their last 17 home openers.

— Jaguars are 7-6 overall vs Denver.
— Home teams lost five of last seven series games.
— Broncos lost three of last five visits to Jacksonville.

New England (0-1) @ NJ Jets (0-1)
— Patriots (-3) lost opener 17-16 at home to Miami LW.
— Patriots outgained Dolphins 393-259, scored 13 points on four red zone drives.
— Last three years, Patriots are 8-10 ATS as road favorites.
— New England won/covered four of last five road openers.
— Patriots haven’t been 0-2 since 2001.
— Under 7-2 last nine road openers.

— Jets have new coach, new QB.
— Starting QB is rookie Wilson, from BYU.
— Jets started 0-2 three of last four years.
— Last four years, Gang Green is 14-8-2 ATS as home dogs.
— Jets are 6-2 ATS in last eight home openers.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven home openers.

— New England won last ten series games.
— Six of their last seven series wins were by 14+ points.
— Patriots won last five visits here (three by 7 or less points)

Minnesota (0-1) @ Arizona (1-0)
— Vikings (-3) lost opener 27-24 in OT at Cincinnati.
— Minnesota threw ball for 336 yards, gave up 149 yards on ground.
— Last four years, Vikings are 0-4 SU/ATS in Week 2.
— Last five years, Minnesota is 8-13 ATS as road underdog.
— Last five years, Vikings are 11-13 ATS on natural grass.
— Over is 10-7 in Minnesota’s last 17 road games.

— Arizona (+3) crushed Tennessee 38-13 in its opener.
— Cardinals outgained Titans 416-251, had 17-yard edge in field position.
— Redbirds scored five TD’s on 11 drives last week.
— Last three years, Arizona is 2-7 ATS as home favorites.
— Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in last five home openers
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine home openers.

— Minnesota won five of last six series games.
— Vikings lost last three trips to Arizona; their last win here was in ’97.
— Home side won last seven series games.

Atlanta (0-1) @ Tampa Bay (1-0)
— Falcons got pummeled 32-6 at home last week.
— Eagles outgained them 434-260, running for 173 yards.
— Falcons are only NFL team that hasn’t had a play of 20+ yards.
— Last four years, Atlanta is 8-12 ATS as road underdog.
— Falcons are 4-10 ATS in last 14 road openers.
— Under is 6-2 in Atlanta’s last eight road openers.

— Buccaneers (-9) won opener 31-29 over Dallas last Thursday.
— Tampa Bay threw 50 passes, ran ball only 14 times LW.
— Buccaneers turned ball over four times (-3) LW.
— Three of their four TD drives were less than 60 yards.
— Last 7+ years, Tampa Bay is 7-19-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Over is 10-6 in their last sixteen home games.

— Tampa Bay won last three series games, by 13-4-17 points.
— Falcons won four of last five visits to Tampa.
— Underdogs are 6-4 ATS last ten series games.

Tennessee (0-1) @ Seattle (1-0)
— Tennessee got spanked 38-13 at home by Arizona LW.
— Titans were outgained 416-251; Henry ran for only 58 yards.
— Last three years, Tennessee is 7-5 ATS as road underdogs.
— Last 6+ years, Titans are 14-10-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Titans are 2-6-1 ATS in last nine road openers.
— Under is 6-3 in last nine road openers.

— Seahawks (-3) won opener 28-16 at Indianapolis.
— Seattle ran for 140 yards, allowed only one play of 20+ yards.
— Seattle is 11-8-2 ATS in last 21 games as home favorites.
— Seahawks are 14-4 ATS in last 18 home openers.
— Seattle is 8-4-1 ATS last 13 games vs AFC teams.
— Under is 16-3-1 in last 20 home openers.

— Seahawks won six of last eight series games.
— Titans lost seven of nine visits to Seattle.
— Last eight series games were decided by 7 or fewer points.

Dallas (0-1) @ LA Chargers (1-0)
— Dallas lost opener 31-29 in Tampa; Prescott threw for 403 yards.
— Cowboys lost despite being +3 in turnovers- they were 9-17 on 3rd down.
— Dallas scored only 12 points on four red zone drives LW.
— Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 6-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Dallas threw 58 passes, ran ball 18 times LW.
— Cowboys have three extra days to prep, playing on Thursday LW.

— Chargers (+1) won opener 20-16 at Washington.
— Bolts converted 14-19 third down plays last week.
— Chargers outgained Washington 424-259, throwing for 334 yards.
— Last three years, Bolts were 3-13-1 ATS as home favorites.
— Chargers are 7-4 ATS last 11 home openers.
— This is Chargers’ first game at SoFi Stadium with fans.

— Chargers won last three series games.
— Dallas won four of its last six visits to San Diego.

Kansas City (1-0) @ Baltimore (0-1)
— Chiefs (-5.5) beat Cleveland 32-29 in their opener.
— Chiefs were outgained 457-397, were +2 in turnovers.
— KC averaged 8.5 yards/pass attempt, Browns 11.5.
— Last six years, Chiefs are 17-11-1 ATS as road favorites.
— KC won last four road openers (3-1 ATS).
— Over 4-2 in their last six road openers.

— Baltimore lost opener 33-27 (OT) in Las Vegas Monday nite.
— Ravens were outgained 491-406; Carr threw for 435 yards.
— Last three years, Ravens are 7-0-1 ATS as a single-digit dog.
— Last five years, Baltimore is 4-1 ATS as home dogs.
— Last three years, Ravens are 5-7-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Ravens have been 0-2 once since 2006.

— Chiefs won last four series games (average total, 53.5)
— Chiefs won five of last six visits to Baltimore.
— Kansas City scored 32 ppg in last four series games.

Detroit (0-1) @ Green Bay (0-1)
— Lions lost opener 41-33 LW, after trailing 38-10.
— 49ers averaged 11.5 yards/pass attempt against them.
— Goff threw for 338 yards in his Detroit debut.
— Last three years, Detroit is 9-8-1 ATS as road underdogs.
— Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six road openers.
— Goff is 0-8 SU (1-7 ATS) with coach other than McVay.

— Green Bay got whacked 38-3 by New Orleans LW.
— Packers ran ball for only 43 yards; they were minus-3 in turnovers.
— Green Bay was one of two teams not to score TD last week.
— Last two years, Packers were 10-6 ATS as home favorites.
— Green Bay is 11-3 ATS in last 14 home openers.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four home openers.

— Packers won last four series games (42-21/31-24 LY)
— Lions split their last six visits to Lambeau Field.
— Goff lost playoff game 32-18 here last year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #2

#5 General's Duty	Debuter should be a square price in a race with a couple of more obvious options, and this one-mile trip might be right up his alley. Get a look at him on the track.
#3 Bust'em Kurt	Speed nearly scored in the debut at Monmouth, and he should be able to handle the one-turn mile. He's the one to beat here at a likely underlaid price.
#6 Bold Leader	He ran on with some interest from well off the pace in the debut try behind a runaway winner, and he's probably going to get better as the distances get a bit longer.
Race Summary	General's Duty has a little bit of appeal if the price is right, and the jockey/trainer combo has had some success in the past. Wouldn't be a shock.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#9 King Bubble	He's interesting while stepping up in class, as he's a perfect 3-for-3 on the grass in the states and might be able to get the right kind of trip while getting first jump on the finishing threats.
#4 Beacon Hill	He should be right up on the splits, but there is at least some chance the fractions are fair today, so maybe he's vulnerable late at a bit too short a price.
#8 Mokheef	Class dropper cuts back after that stakes try, and he's a pretty reliable finisher who can show up late. I'd definitely want him on the multi-race plays.
Race Summary	King Bubble brings solid form to this class hike, and his overall turf form has been really sharp throughout his career. He's obviously had some issues along the way, as today marks just his 12th start here as a 6yo, but the form fits and the price might be right.

Laurel Park - Race #9

#9 Empty Net	She seemed to like the turf just fine last out, and she should be able to sit right up on the splits in a race without a ton of other pace. Dangerous to close the day.
#6 My Dream Girl	She is tactical enough to work out a good trip today, but her overall form is sort of static and may not be good enough to get top honors here.
#8 Superstasia	The debut running line in the PPs isn't right -- she was never within a length of the leader and never a threat -- but she gets blinkers here while stretching out, and there are reasons to think both of those will work in her favor.
Race Summary	Empty Net is fast enough to control the tempo, and she might be a bit better this time around after getting that first route try out of the way.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Golden Gate Fields - Race #7

#3 Clearly Gone	Tired last time going longer in her first off the claim by Wong; won two straight claiming races, the first at Santa Anita and most recent at Del Mar. Can close strongly and will be the one to hold off.
#4 Scherzo	Was second at this level last time and turns back to 1 1-16th miles; can be mid-pack and should be able to move into strong contention.
#1 Prance	Lost photos in her last two here and dropping in class; can be close throughout.
Race Summary	Clearly Gone ran an odd race for her last time as she was pushed early; she can get back to a more relaxed early run and can make an impact in the yards.

Golden Gate Fields - Race #8

#1 Miss Union	Was an easy winner in her debut that held third in her second and most recent start; has enough speed to get an inside advantage and can respond late.
#3 Code Ribbon	Lost a photo in her first over this strip after a maiden win at Pleasanton; has a good chance to improve as she run longer.
#2 Loveherheart	Tired in the G2 Sorrento at Del Mar last out and faced tough foes at Santa Anita as well; probably on the front end here.
Race Summary	Miss Union can get an ideal trip inside and maybe a length or two off the leader and can finish well vs. these.

Golden Gate Fields - Race #9

#6 Coolcross	Will have a good stalking position and can display the best late move in a field that has many that will be distance challenged. Good enough to score here.
#3 Bigfoot City	Was claimed by France out of a second-place finish last out; comes back for the same price and be on the front end.
#1 I Will Yeah	Tired last time against much better and can get back to decent form with this class drop.
Race Summary	Coolcross can benefit from chasing a pace that should play right to her liking; one to hold off.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: NY Jets +6 over New England

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow

Sep 19 '21, 1:05 PM in 4h
MLB | Rockies vs Nationals
Play on: Rockies +105 at SC Consensus

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Rockies +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Will Rogers

Sep 19 '21, 4:25 PM in 8h
NFL | Cowboys vs Chargers
Play on: Chargers -3 -106 at pinnacle

Cowboys vs Chargers
It is Herbert and the Chargers at home to Prescott and the Cowboys on Sunday. The Chargers are favored at -3.5. While both quarterbacks were excellent in week one, Herbert and the Chargers’ offense was particularly impressive in converting third downs and controlling the last 6+ minutes with a long sustained drive. The Chargers offensive line was very solid.
There were many concerns about Prescott following last years’ serious ankle injury, but he put them to rest with over 32 completions and 400 passing yards.
Key injuries and a suspension may have a profound effect on this game as the Cowboys for the second year running face a serious depletion in ranks early. The Cowboys had 0 sacks in week one, and with Lawrence and Gregory likely out, the Dallas passing rush will be seriously curtailed. With Collins also out, the Cowboys’ offensive line will struggle to contain All-Pro Joey Bosa and the chargin’ Chargers’ pass rush. Will we see more of Zeke Elliott? Pass protection aside, he had a miserable game in week 1. Certainly it is doubtful that Prescott will be allowed to approach 50 pass attempts again.
The Chargers are well coached, and relatively healthy. Sure, the Cowboys are not going to want to go 0-2, but there is the same impetus for the Chargers to rise to the dizzy heights of 2-0. Lay the points with the Chargers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Sep 19 '21, 4:25 PM in 8h
NFL | Cowboys vs Chargers
Play on: OVER 54½ -104

The O.K. Corral has nothing on the Cowboys-Chargers when it comes to shootout time. The oddsmaker knows this setting a high total in this matchup. It's just not high enough given the circumstances and when you break down the matchup. Mike McCarthy knows the best defense is a good offense because his Cowboys can't stop anybody. Dallas surrendered the second-most yards in franchise history last season and the most points at nearly 30 a game. Tom Brady threw for 379 yards and four TD's in the Buccaneers' 31-29 opening week victory versus Dallas. Now the Cowboys face emerging superstar Justin Herbert likely minus their two best pass rushers. DeMarcus Lawrence is out with a broken foot suffered in practice and Randy Gregory tested positive for COVID-19. Dak Prescott has averaged 51.8 passes in five games since McCarthy took over. He's thrown for at least 400 yards in the past four games he's finished. Prescott has a deep set of wide receivers, two decent tight end targets and Elliott Elliott is an elite running back. LA is minus cornerback Chris Harris, out with a shoulder injury. Herbet threw for 337 yards against a much superior Washington defense last week. He, too, has very good wideouts, an excellent all-purpose back in Austin Ekeler and a much-improved offensive line that gave up only two sacks on Herbert's 49 dropbacks against Washington.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Hunter

Sep 19 '21, 8:20 PM in 12h
NFL | Chiefs vs Ravens
Play on: Chiefs -3½ -106 at pinnacle

*3 Star Free Play on Chiefs -3.5* The Baltimore Ravens have major injury problems right now. Baltimore is without Marcus Peters in the secondary and Jimmy Smith is questionable with an injury. You don't want to be down key guys in the secondary when going up against Patrick Mahomes.
Baltimore is without their top two running backs in JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards. The Ravens are also banged up badly on the offensive line. Lamar Jackson doesn't have nearly the help around him that he had last season.
Kansas City has beaten Baltimore soundly in the past, and I think they do it again. The Ravens blitz Mahomes too often, and we know Mahomes is a master against the blitz. If they try blitzing this much again without key guys in the secondary, the Chiefs are going to hit several big plays.
Baltimore had a short week to prepare, and the Ravens are just outclassed in their current state.
Take Kansas City.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Rickenbach

Sep 19 '21, 9:00 AM in 46m
Soccer | Leicester vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Play on: Leicester +185 at linepros

Free Pick LEICESTER +185 - Ton of value here with the road dog in my opinion. Leicester is looking up at Brighton & Hove in the table at this early stage of the season. However, the travelers have played the much tougher fixtures in comparison with the hosts. Also, Leicester has dominated recent history in matches between these clubs. That said, the big plus money price on the visitors is well worth a look in this one. Free Pick LEICESTER +185

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Sep 19 '21, 1:00 PM in 4h
Soccer | Chicago Fire vs Montreal
Play on: Montreal +100 at Caesars

1* Free Pick on Montreal +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Sep 19 '21, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Saints vs Panthers
Play on: Saints -3 -110 at SC Consensus

Free Pick on Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Sep 19 '21, 1:00 PM in 4h
NFL | Patriots vs Jets
Play on: Patriots -6 -102 at pinnacle

My free play is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET.

It will be a 'battle' between two rookie QBs Sunday in East Rutherford (NJ), as Mac Jones (No. 15 overall pick) and the New England Patriots visit Zach Wilson (No. 2 overall pick) and the New York Jets. Neither highly-touted QB was victorious in their respective NFL debuts last Sunday. Jones finished 29-for-39 with 281 yards and a touchdown in New England's 17-16 home loss against Miami, while Wilson threw for 258 yards, two TDs and an interception on 20-for-37 passing in New York's 19-14 defeat at Carolina. However, a closer look reveals that the Patriots outgained the Dolphins by 134 yards, converted 11 of 16 third-down attempts and controlled the clock, 36:43-23:17. Somehow, the Pats found a way to lose by ONE point. Meanwhile, Wilson was sacked SIX times and got NO support from his running game (17 carries for 45 yards / 2.6 YC). The Jets would total just 252 yards (converted just 4 of 13 on third downs) and trailed 16-0 at the half.
History favors the Pats, as the Jets dropped both games against New England a season ago and have lost 10 straight meetings over the last five seasons. The Jets' last win against the Patriots was a 26-20 overtime victory back on Dec 27, 2015 at home. New England head coach Bill Belichick has seen enough of Wilson already to be impressed. "He's an explosive player," Belichick said. "He's got a great arm. Live arm. Makes all the throws. Athletic. Like any young player, you know, they gain experience and get better every time they go out there." However, under Belichick, New England has historically fared well against rookie QBs with a 21-6 record against them during his 22 seasons coaching the Patriots (9-1 the last 10!).

Wilson plays behind a terrible offensive line that just lost left tackle Mekhi Becton for weeks because of a knee injury. As noted above, Wilson was sacked six times by the Panthers and that running game added no reprieve (45 yards). The Jets averaged an NFL-low 15.2 PPG last season and Week 1 wasn't exactly a sign that things are about to improve in 2021. I like what I saw from Jones in Week 1 and the Jets' secondary may be the easiest Jones will encounter all season. I noted above that the Pats have beaten the Jets in 10 straight meetings (five-season span) but when one goes back 10 seasons, the Pats have won 18 of 20, with New York's two wins BOTH coming in OT. I'm laying the points.

Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY: BUFFALO/MIAMI UNDER the total of 47½