Tuesday 9/21/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Monday Myths: Are Saratoga Big Stakes Winners Over the Top?

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September 20, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Saratoga’s elite stakes are destination races, and their alumni find it difficult to repeat their success after that pinnacle.

Background:

So far this year we’ve seen Saratoga stakes winners Caravel, Got Stormy and Fast Boat all return to disappoint next out with third, sixth and fourth-place finishes, respectively. As we round into the final Breeders’ Cup preps and perhaps even the Breeders’ Cup championship events themselves, how much stock do we take in Saratoga stakes winners being over the top?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at all Saratoga graded stakes winners since 2016 and how they fared in the next races when back in graded stakes. Only starts within 90 days were considered as part of the current form cycle and how the immediate impact of the Spa outing may have impacted the runner. I also looked at the location of the return and its production. (Steeplechase races were omitted in the stats.)

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Saratoga graded stakes winners returned to win their next start 27% with a $0.70 ROI for every $1 bet.

All non-Saratoga graded stakes winners returned to win their next start 22% with a $0.73 ROI for every $1 bet.

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At Belmont from 34 starts, Saratoga graded stakes winners returned to win their next start 38% with a $0.89 ROI for every $1 bet.

At Keeneland from 26 starts, Saratoga graded stakes winners returned to win their next start 15% with a $0.33 ROI for every $1 bet.

At Churchill from 14 starts, Saratoga graded stakes winners returned to win their next start 0% with a $0.00 ROI for every $1 bet.

At Santa Anita from 9 starts, Saratoga graded stakes winners returned to win their next start 44% with a $1.47 ROI for every $1 bet.

At Del Mar from 8 starts, Saratoga graded stakes winners returned to win their next start 25% with a $1.01 ROI for every $1 bet.

At Woodbine from 8 starts, Saratoga graded stakes winners returned to win their next start 25% with a $0.82 ROI for every $1 bet.

At Parx from 6 starts, Saratoga graded stakes winners returned to win their next start 33% with a $0.53 ROI for every $1 bet. Noteable: 5 of 6 finished in exacta.

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Overall Findings:

Overall, Saratoga graded stakes victors won more often in their next graded stakes attempts than the national average by 5 percent. But the popularity of Saratoga stakes winners drives the price down with a slightly lower ROI than the national returning graded stakes winner. There certainly has been some regional swings in play – hitting a strong 38% right back on the NYRA circuit at Belmont, but a surprisingly poor 4-for-40 (10%) at Churchill and Keeneland on the return. Heading straight west to California has produced 35% wins and a $1.25 ROI for every $1 bet.

Bottom line:

Saratoga graded stakes winners are not over the top, by the numbers. Be cautious of the Saratoga graded stakes winners when they return in Kentucky – such as we saw with 2021 returning losers Got Stormy and Fast Boat at the concluded Kentucky Downs meet, continuing a poor trend regionally – but overall the Spa graded stakes performers have returned stronger than what you’d expect nationally. They should be solid at places like Parx this weekend and potentially Santa Anita and Del Mar to come, along with their obvious presence at Belmont in its current new stand.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which trainers have been able to bring back Saratoga graded stakes winners with success and which have struggled. Notably, Steve Asmussen is 5-8 with his next-out stakes runners after winning such races at the Spa, succeeding last year with the likes of Yaupon and Jackie’s Warrior, and the previous summer with Mitole and Midnight Bisou.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#11 Sok Fury	She made a move and flattened in her only career sprint try, but it came for more than twice this price, and she is worth a long look if she offers anything like the 6/1 ML price.
#6 Duplicated	She'll make her third start of the season while getting down in class in a big way, and while she doesn't have a ton of upside, just a little bit on the drop might be enough to get her home.
#5 Side Action	She fits well here off a neck miss with similar, but she's making her 12th career start and doesn't have a whole lot of excuses at this point. Capable.
Race Summary	Sok Fury can be better at a one-turn trip while facing this type of company, and she may be able to better sustain her run here than she did in her previous sprint try.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#1 Patriot Drive	He steps up off the claim and has been in pretty decent form this year, and his ability to settle and finish might serve him well in a race with a handful of forward players who may not be finishing with a ton of enthusiasm late.
#5 J Beresford Tipton	He has done nothing wrong in a couple of local starts, and he's tactical enough to find the right kind of trip from off the pace. He's the one to beat at what'll likely be an unappealing price.
#2 Driftwood	He looks best of the pace in this spot, but he's going to have to bring another sharp effort as he continues his climb up the class ladder off a couple of solid showings. Player on paper may be vulnerable late.
Race Summary	Patriot Drive draws well to save ground on the first turn before launching a rally late, and there are a couple of speedier types who may not see out the trip.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#4 Watch Me Tango	She has shown some pretty solid pace for a route horse at this kind of level, and she should be quick enough to lead the way again today. She'll try the always tough test of stepping up to face winners for the first time, but she might get brave right back.
#2 Keypit	She ran okay behind an easy winner when stepping out of the maiden ranks for the first time, and she should be in line for a perfect pressing trip that gives her the jump on the finishing players.
#5 On a Tour	She turned in a good effort in her local debut, and she figures for another good tracking trip like she got last out. That said, she is almost sure to get overbet in this spot and doesn't have to win this.
Race Summary	Watch Me Tango should be able to show the way on the front end, and both she and Keypit look capable of beating the likely overbet chalk, On a Tour.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrington - Race #3

#7 A DELIGHTFUL ACT	Took the money and ran past several of these to win in U.S. debut.
#1 GOT POWER	Has speed and rail and alot of runner-up finishes.
#4 TOBAGO TIME	New $100k Club member sports 11/3-5-2 record this year.
Race Summary	A Delightful Act, an anxious third early, was flushed out before the half, wore down Got Power on the final turn and was geared down late. Don't expect 9-2 morning-line price but expect another victory for the New Zealand bred.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#5 MR FRITTER	No match for odds-on fave, tries to upgrade series of in-the-money finishes.
#3 MAGIC MAGGIE	Useful qualifiers, debuts for high-percentage connections.
#8 ANGELS EXPRESS	Finished second the last two times he stayed on stride.
Race Summary	Mr Fritter blasted to the lead from post 9, settled into a good pocket trip, angled out in mid-stretch but ran third as the 1-to-5 favorite passed by. He catches a weak field and switches to Filion to try and break through with a victory. Play 5-3 and 5-8 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5

#8 QUAN BLUE CHIP	Made two moves, won geared down, likely repeater.
#5 SEA LAIRD	Won in same spot and same post a month ago, plagued by bad starting spots since then.
#1 ALL CHEDDAR	Up late to win as the favorite, takes class hike, draws rail.
Race Summary	Quan Blue Chip made a quick second-quarter burst to the lead, yielded to the pocket, tipped 3-wide for the stretch drive and won going away. He validated a troubled trip from the race prior and is today's Best Bet.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Indiana Grand - Race #4

#6 Native Lion	Won two back when Ramos was aboard, and the two are reunited today; after a lesser effort last time, she can battle for the lead and can dig in vs. these.
#7 Timeless Rose	Was second in an Indiana-bred stakes races last out but can also run well vs. open company; big late threat.
#8 Ylikedis	Closed well for second the last time she was on this course; has been in good races and has some good late energy on occasion.
Race Summary	Native Lion does her best for jockey Ramos and can be in a threatening position from the start; should be able to finish well.

Indiana Grand - Race #5

#1 Traffic Pattern	Has speed and rail and should be able to make the transition to dirt; favorably placed with this group.
#2 He Takes Charge	Takes a huge class drop after two subpar efforts, the latest in July 2020; resurfaces nearly 15 months later for a much smaller claiming price.
#6 Bob's Calling	Was claimed by Green last out and goes for his third straight win; at the top of his game.
Race Summary	Traffic Pattern has a good chance to control this one from the outset and can resist when challenged.

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#9 Ransack	Has shown a lot of speed in longer races, probably won't get the early lead here but should be able to finish well after running in so many routes.
#7 Boa Nova	Came a neck short of getting his second straight win and is a solid player going this distance.
#2 Never Have I Ever	Got to the front end and cruised to victory at Arlington last out; has put up a fight vs. good company and fits here.
Race Summary	Ransack turns back to five furlongs and in setting the pace going long didn't exactly set dawdling fractions (:45 3-5, 1:10 2-5 last time) and can stay in range.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs

Presque Isle Downs - Race 2	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (min .50 cent) (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 5:10P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 21 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CONGRATS SMOKE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CONGRATS SMOKE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third o r fourth start after a layoff. HARD TARGET: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. JOEYVILLE: Today is a sprint and the ho rse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
6	CONGRATS SMOKE	7/2	7/2
5	HARD TARGET	8/5	6/1
4	JOEYVILLE	6/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	JOEYVILLE	4	6/1	Front-runner	75	72	60.2	59.2	53.2
5	HARD TARGET	5	8/5	Front-runner	74	73	52.9	62.0	58.5
3	JESSE JONES	3	8/1	Front-runner	53	58	44.4	50.8	37.3
6	CONGRATS SMOKE	6	7/2	Alternator/Front-runner	61	63	108.1	70.2	63.7
8	KID RUSSELL	8	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	75	73	69.4	58.6	51.1
2	BISHI	2	8/1	Trailer	69	59	40.8	58.0	50.0
1	BUSCH LATTE	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	68	44.0	54.6	43.6
7	DIAMANT	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	68	34.2	40.2	27.2

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 6	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Philly BIG 5
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $35,000 • Post: 3:10P
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON ONE PA-RESTRICTED RACE(S) OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 21 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. UNCLE ERNIE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * UNCLE ERNIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	UNCLE ERNIE	6/5	9/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	UNCLE ERNIE	4	6/5	Front-runner	89	89	89.9	83.1	79.6
6	MEET ME AT MUNDIS	6	4/1	Stalker	82	80	64.8	73.6	64.6
1	DOLLARIZATION	1	6/1	Stalker	86	80	62.7	74.8	68.8
3	ELEAZAR	3	6/1	Stalker	73	79	51.2	74.9	69.4
2	DANZAFIED	2	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	89	88	47.6	68.2	60.7
5	JUST A THOUGHT	5	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	92	74	70.4	70.2	61.2

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belterra Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:05pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#1 SUNRISER (ML=3/1)
#5 KITTY'S PROMISE (ML=7/2)


SUNRISER - My experienced judgement tells me to watch out for this horse in this race KITTY'S PROMISE - Faircloth had been running this filly at higher levels recently. Did win a $12,500 Claiming race though, on May 26th. Could do it again here. Sub-par try last time out at Belterra Park was due to the off-going (she finished fourth). Will most certainly do better in this event without a sloppy track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 QUEENS GIFT (ML=8/5), #3 PLATINUM GALE (ML=3/1), #4 EVENSCORE (ML=9/2),

QUEENS GIFT - A bit of a lackluster effort when this filly finished fifth. PLATINUM GALE - The finish of sixth in the last affair shows me that this equine may be getting out of condition. Hard to put your dough on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as frequently as this one does. Won't be easy for this entrant to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list. EVENSCORE - If you keep choosing these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be dissatisfied most every time. Run-of-the-mill speed figure last out at Belterra Park at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this runner will improve too much today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #1 SUNRISER on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Free Winners for Tuesday, September 21st 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
FINGER LAKES
RACE #8
TIME: 4:33 PM EST
PICK: BET #3 Tax Me Naught 4/1 odds to win @ Bovada

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 59

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 PEEKACHICA 2/1
# 5 MISS INHOFE 9/5
# 3 MAGNIFICENTREVENGE 5/2

I've got to go with PEEKACHICA. She has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the strongest in this field. Garnered a very strong speed figure last time out. With a nice class fig average of 69, has one of the strongest class advantages in this group. MISS INHOFE - Has been running admirably and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Parker will probably be able to get this filly to break out sharply in this competition. MAGNIFICENTREVENGE - Has been running admirably lately and ought to be up on the front end early on.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Louisiana Downs - Race #1 - Post: 2:45pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 58

Rating:

#4 KELLYS THE BOSS (ML=8/1)
#9 LADY LUTE (ML=7/2)
#2 MISS MIRACLE GIRL (ML=12/1)


KELLYS THE BOSS - Looking at today's class rating, this campaigner is up against an easier field than last time out at Louisiana Downs. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should race well today. LADY LUTE - Milligan must have known this filly would run well at this track. Won her last race here on Aug 28th and now goes for a double. Don't often see a lucrative ROI like +200. This jockey/handler tandem has done well together over the last year. Delcid is back for another race today after sitting atop this horse for the 1st attempt on August 28th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. MISS MIRACLE GIRL - This filly is put right back into a race in less than 10 days; this is a positive sign. Dropping in class figure points from her September 12th race at Louisiana Downs. Based on that info, I will give this horse the advantage. The last fig of 58 is the best last race speed figure in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 MO MONEYHONEY (ML=5/2), #8 KIMBERLY'S JACKPOT (ML=9/2), #5 SPECTACULAR IZZY (ML=6/1),

MO MONEYHONEY - This probable favorite may be out of shape without any recent works. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a vulnerable competitor. KIMBERLY'S JACKPOT - This horse ran a mediocre rating last time out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat in today's race running that figure. SPECTACULAR IZZY - The effort in the last race on September 7th probably won't hold up against tougher opponents when they turn for home.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 KELLYS THE BOSS to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,9] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 71

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 21. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 BRITESIDEOFTHEROAD 2/1
# 1 CUCKOO FORCONONUTS 5/1
# 4 GOTTAFLATHAVEHER 6/1

My pick in this competition is BRITESIDEOFTHEROAD. Could provide positive dividends based on very strong recent Speed Figures with an average of 65. With a respectable 66 Equibase speed fig last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. Is tough not to consider given the company run in lately. CUCKOO FORCONONUTS - Kravets has this mare running well and is a decent pick based on the very good speed figs put up in sprint races recently. Garnered a formidable Equibase Speed Fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair. GOTTAFLATHAVEHER - Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved promptly to the lead recently. Must be in form if the conditioner is bringing her back so quickly.

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Carmine Bianco

Event: (201393) Inter Milan at (201394) Fiorentina
Sport/League: ISAL

Date/Time: September 21, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Total Over 2.75 (-117)
Italy Serie A - Inter Milan at Fiorentina
Quick Synopsis: A total's play on Tuesday as your free play. We discussed last season that this Fiorentina side would be a much more exciting team this year in Serie A under new manager Vincenzo Italiano and they haven't disappointed thus far with wins in their last 3 after opening with a 3-1 loss to Roma. Each of their games have produced 3 or more goals. Inter come to town for this tricky fixture and are a perfect 4-0 to the over this season in league play and with a weekend game against a tough Atalanta side then a Champions League trip to Ukraine to face Shakhtar Donetsk in what might be seen as a must win puts their focus here in question.
The play is Over 2.75 (Split line of 2.5 and 3.0) I forecast this getting to a flat 3.0 and it's still a play.

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Jimmy Adams

Event: (951) Pittsburgh Pirates at (952) Cincinnati Reds
Sport/League: MLB

Date/Time: September 21, 2021 6PM EDT
Play: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+100) M Keller (RHP), T Mahle (RHP) Must Start
The Reds haven’t done themselves many favors in the wild card race over the past few weeks. That being said, they have a great chance to get a win Tuesday with Tyler Mahle on the mound. Mahle is coming off an absolute gem, not allowing a single run in 6 innings against these same Pirates in his last start. The Cincinnati offense came to life in a 9-5 win to begin this series and we can expect more of the same here. Take the Reds run line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Mejia

Event: (209321) Atletico San Luis at (209322) Juarez
Sport/League: SOC

Date/Time: September 21, 2021 10PM EDT
Play: Atletico San Luis 0.0 (-120)
FC Juarez, the only Liga MX team managed by a Brazilian in Ricardo “Tuca” Ferretti, has won only two of nine matches, losing five outright and coming in with a minus-6 goal differential that is tied for next-to-last. Colombian striker Ayron del Valle failed to score for Juarez and secured his release a few days ago by mutual accord, so the club will have a new strike partner for forward for Paraguay’s Darlo Lezcano. Atletico San Luis comes off an impressive 4-1 win over Tijuana behind a hat trick from 22-year-old Argentine forward German Berterame and should pick up all three points on the road here to improve to 4-1-4 in the Apertura, pulling even with Atlas for third place. Ride San Luis as a spread play to cover yourself with a p