Saturday 9/25/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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AI Picks: Gulfstream Stakes | Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021

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September 24, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Gulfstream Park presents 4 stakes races Saturday, including the filly and colt series finales in the Florida Sires Stakes. To assist your handicapping, stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

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Gulfstream Park // Race 4 // 1:50 pm ET // $75,000 Hollywood Beach Stakes // 5 furlongs (turf)

#8 Peter D (5-2) // 26%W
#7 Nerve (7-2) // 17%W
#9 Last Leaf (2-1) // 12%W
#3 Barone Cesco (6-1) // 10%W

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Gulfstream Park // Race 7 // 3:26 pm ET // $125,000 Wildcat Heir // 1 mile

#6 Noble Drama (8-5) // 30%W
#5 Well Defined (2-1) // 21%W
#1 Old Time Revival (20-1) // 18%W
#4 Shivaree (5-1) // 12%W

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Gulfstream Park // Race 9 // 4:30 pm ET // $400,000 My Dear Girl // 1-1/16 miles

#1 Outfoxed (4-5) // 32%W
#3 Devilette (5-1) // 18%W
#8 My Sassenach (6-1) // 14%W
#2 Veiled Prophet (20-1) // 12%W

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Gulfstream Park // Race 11 // 5:38 pm ET // $400,000 In Reality // 1-1/16 miles

#2 Cajun’s Magic (5-2) // 30%W
#7 Octane (2-1) // 17%W
#9 Cattin (8-1) // 10%W
#10 Gold Special (20-1) // 10%W

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Eddie Olczyk: Saturday Spot Plays | Septemeber 25, 2021

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September 24, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk
NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk has spotlighted a pair of key plays on Saturday’s lucrative Pennsylvania Derby Day card at Parx. Follow Edzo’s plays each week

Parx Racing

Race 6 // 2:22 pm ET // $200,000 Plum Pretty Stakes // 1-1/16 miles

#5 Trolley Ride (6-1 ML)
If the star sprinter Chub Wagon stays in the race, I like my mare even more. There’s plenty of pace in this two-turn race and I love the rider change to former Parx leading jockey Kendrick Carmouche in a homecoming of sorts. Win-place bet. Consider daily double 5-2 to this pair of picks.

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Park Racing

Race 7 // 2:51 pm ET // $200,000 Parx Dirt Mile // 1 mile

#2 West Will Power (5-1 ML)
Big respect for trainer Kelly Breen. He has a horse on the rise with this 4-year-old, who was runner-up to Code of Honor in the Iselin. Look for a mid-pack trip with a stalk-and-pounce style. Win bet. Exacta box 2-6 with classy Met Mile winner and race favorite Silver State.

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Red Dog Sports

Sep 25 '21, 9:00 AM in 9h
Soccer | AC Ajaccio vs Bastia
Play on: Draw +200 at linepros

draw +200
Ajaccio 1
Bastia 1

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Tokyo Brandon

Event: (304139) Hanshin Tigers at (304140) Yomiuri Giants
Sport/League: BSB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 1AM EDT
Play: 1H Yomiuri Giants Total Over 1.5 (-120)
Brandon is the #1 capper in profit all sports at Wager Talk in 2021 earning a +185% profit for his clients. He is winning 61% of his Asian baseball plays. Get his 5% play for tonight at 10pm PT.
The best lineup in the game should be able to get 2 runs in the 1st inning off of a pitcher who is unreliable and padded his numbers playing Chinichi. My numbers have this at 2.78 so getting two should be a low hurdle.

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Tokyo Brandon

Event: (304629) SSG Landers at (304630) KIA Tigers
Sport/League: KBO

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 4AM EDT
Play: SSG Landers Total Over 4.5 (+100)
Brandon is the #1 capper in profit all sports at Wager Talk in 2021 earning a +185% profit for his clients. He is winning 61% of his Asian baseball plays. Get his 5% play for tonight at 10pm PT.
SSG is killing the ball lately and they average 4.89 runs a game. On the road with 9 at bats they face a young pitcher who has never played at this level, backed by a dumpster fire of a bullpen backing him. SSG should not have a problem making their average in runs today.

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Carmine Bianco

Event: (200001) Manchester City at (200002) Chelsea
Sport/League: EPL
Date/Time: September 25, 2021 7AM EDT
Play: Total Over 2.25 (-120)
EPL - Manchester City at Chelsea
Quick Synopsis: The weekend best game in Europa as last seasons Premier League champs take on the Champions League titleholders and we're going to look at the total here and the Over 2.25. You can get my complete thoughts on this at Wagertalk TV (link below) but even with big Champions League games ahead in midweek for these sides (Chelsea v Juventus) (Man City v PSG) I don't expect either to rest players and we should see a game that closely resembles last seasons 2-1 Chelsea win at the Etihad in Manchester. While these are two of the best tactical managers in the game at the moment this should be a quicker paced game than the Champions League final was and thus we'll lean to the over and look for a 2-1 type result. (Wagertalk TV –>
The play is Over 2.25 (Split line of 2.0 and 2.5)

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Carmine Bianco

Event: (200029) Aston Villa at (200030) Manchester United
Sport/League: EPL

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 7AM EDT
Play: Total Under 3.0 (-115)
EPL - Aston Villa at Manchester United
Quick Synopsis: Our totals expectancy has then number at 2.33 so it'll be a play on the under. Additionally both teams played in midweek in the EPL Cup competition and while it should be straight forward with Aston Villa starting their best 11 here the same can't be said for Manchester United who do have a big Champions League game midweek against Villarreal. Pogba, Ronaldo and Fernandes were rested in midweek with only Fernandes of the 3 playing the final 20 in a 1-0 loss to West Ham. 2 goals might be the celling here in what should be a United win/clean sheet game.
The play is Under 3.0
This will also be posted as a Free Play selection.

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Nick Borrman

Event: Arminia Bielefeld at Union Berlin
Sport/League: GBL

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 9AM EDT
Play: Union Berlin (-140)
Germany Bundesliga
Union Berlin are coming off their first loss in the Bundesliga of the season against Dortmund in their last game. They nearly pulled off a wild comeback as they scored two goals after trailing 3-0, but ultimately fell just short.
Their results have been OK to start the season as they have just one loss in five games, but have had to settle for three draws. However, their underlying numbers have been well above average as they have a +0.51 xG differential, generating 1.56 xG per game while allowing only 1.06 xGA. They also are averaging 5.8 shots on goal per game which is the 4th most in the league.
Arminia is winless in five games this year, but their results have masked just how bad they have been as they were able to earn four draws to go along with one loss. But, they have very bad xG numbers with a -1.04 xG differential averaging the 3rd fewest xG per game at 0.90 while allowing the 3rd most xGA at 1.94. They are also allowing the third most shots per game at 15.8.
Bottom line is looking at results so far doesn't show much separation between these teams but xG numbers tell a different story and that will catch up to them sooner rather than later. Union Berlin also beat Arminia 5-0 at home last year.
TAKE UNION BERLIN TO WIN (ML or -0.5)
Line Parameter: 2% to -150 or -0.75

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Bryan Leonard

Event: (313) Bowling Green at (314) Minnesota
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Minnesota -31.0 (-105)
314 Bowling Green at Minnesota
While the Falcons have had the magic touch against the point spread this season. This is still one of if not the least experienced teams in the FBS ranks. The likes of South Alabama and Murray State just won't prepare a team to play a physical Big 10 squad. Coming off a rare win and with a huge MAC showdown against Akron on deck, we can't see Scot Loeffler taking chances with his starters.
PLAY MINNESOTA

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (379) LSU at (380) Mississippi State
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: LSU -2.5 (-110)
Huge revenge game for the Tigers here on Saturday as they head into Starkville to take on Mississippi State.
LSU got flat out embarrassed in Baton Rouge last season as -14.5 home favorites against the Bulldogs, going down 44-34 to Mississippi State at home.
With 18 returning starters for LSU, that should guarantee a best effort from the Tigers here against a Mississippi State team that has so far over-performed on the year.
The Bulldogs rank #70th on the season on opponent points per play this season, giving up some huge chunk plays to Memphis last week in a game the Memphis Tigers only managed to generate 246 yards (almost half that of Mississippi State) and still got the win.
LSU leads the nation in sacks this year and should put a ton of pressure on this Mississippi State O-line and we like the Tigers to win and cover in Starkville on Saturday.
Take LSU to win and cover against Mississippi State this Saturday in a big SEC rivalry.
PLAY: LSU -2.5

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Tony Finn

Event: (345) Ohio at (346) Northwestern
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Ohio +14.5 (-110)
The summer talk surrounding the Mid-American Athletic league was that Ohio had the talent to win the conference. The Bobcats opened the season favored to earn a victory over ACC Syracuse. Unfortunately, the Bobcats didn't live up to the billing and fell to the visiting Orange. Ohio followed the season-opening loss with a second straight to FCS Duquesne. Ohio enters Week 4 with an 0-3 mark, having been embarrassed last week by the Ragin' Cajuns of Louisiana.
The exciting and productive 2020 campaign of Northwestern has gone softly into the night. The Wildcats win over Indiana State, but there is little to nothing for head coach Pat Fitzgerald and his staff to build on. The 'Cats offense can't get out of their way, and the player personnel on the stop-side of the ball is setting records that will force Webster to reword the definition of defense.
Northwestern doesn't deserve to be a two-TD favorite over any FBS program, but the bookmakers have stepped out and made Fitzgerald's squad just that. Free pick is a play on the MAC's Ohio Bobcats but the two-TD-plus handicap.

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The Prez

Event: (389) SMU at (390) TCU
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: TCU -9.5 (-110)
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PICK AND ANALYSIS

389 SMU Mustangs at 390 TCU Horned Frogs -9.5, 65

Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, will host the SMU Mustangs and TCU Horned Frogs game this Saturday morning. The 'Stangs have been labeled as battle-tested. SMU did defeat Abilene Christian and North Texas, and a perfectly executed Hail Mary to get by Louisiana Tech in a high scoring contest have Southern Methodist entering Saturday's tilt a perfect 3-0.


The Frogs are off a bye this past Saturday and have scored 34 and 45 points in their two wins, versus Cal and Duquesne, respectively. The 2021 version of the TCU defense is the best it has been in five years. However, most important to the season's success is versatile, albeit balanced, and explosive offense of head coach Gary Patterson that makes this team a difficult out.

Max Duggan will show off his dual-threat ability on Saturday in Fort Worth. By doing so, he makes an already suspect SMU secondary less-than. Former Oklahoma Sooner QB Tanner Mordecai has thrown 16 touchdown passes behind an offensive line that has given him all day to find open receivers. Mordecai has yet to be tested by a defensive front, and that changes on Saturday when Patterson and his staff call for extra pressure in the SMU backfield resulting in a TCU win and cover.

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Bobby Ligs

Event: (345) Ohio at (346) Northwestern

Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 12PM EDT

Play: Total Under 47.5 (-110)
3% play to 47

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Dwayne Bryant

Event: (355) Washington State at (356) Utah
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Utah -15.0 (-110)