Saturday 9/25/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Trigger

Event: (355) Washington State at (356) Utah
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 2PM EDT
Play: Utah -15.0 (-110)
Utah (2:30PM ET PAC12 Network) – A winning football weekend across the board last week, we got the big one to kick things off on Friday night but there’s still plenty of opportunities to make money on College Football Saturday and I’ll start things off out west with the Utah Utes looking to get right against the Washington State Cougars at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah.
I reference “sharp money” quite a bit because I think it’s important to acknowledge the sharp side and not bet against it. Like anything with handicapping, nothing is the end all be all, but sharp money has hit Utah the past two weeks and failed and that leads me to believe there’s some big time value on the Utah side here. I didn’t fall for it the past two weeks because someone I respect went to Baylor and had me convinced something was up with Charlie Brewer. This is a source I trust that said Brewer just isn’t the same guy since suffering a major injury in the 2020 Sugar Bowl and that certainly looked to be the case as Brewer was atrocious against BYU and ended up getting benched against San Diego State. Brewer’s backup, Cameron Rising, nearly brought Utah all the way back as the Utes were able to tie the game up before falling in triple overtime. Earlier this week Brewer left the Utah program, it will be Rising under center for the Utes this week and I think he gives Utah a big chance to win big here.
This is a massive step down in class for Utah and I don’t think the drop off is being properly reflected in this line. Washington State is one of the worst Power 5 schools in the country, the Cougars lost to Utah State as a 17.5 point underdog to open the season and were steamrolled by a USC team in complete disarray last week. I’ll be shocked if Washington State is favored in any game this season aside from maybe at home to Arizona and I have the Cougars as at least a three touchdown underdog here. Washington State quarterback Jayden de Laura left last weeks game with an injury and there’s a chance he doesn’t even play here. If he does he’s playing injured and he’s also on the road for the first time this season which also represents the first time he will play in front of away fans. I’ve been to Rice-Eccles twice, it’s an awesome stadium and, while it won’t be the atmosphere of a BLACKOUT Saturday night game, I expect Utah to have a solid crowd on hand for their PAC 12 opener. It’s a clean slate of sorts with it being Utah’s first conference game and the home fans should be a welcome sight after tough games at BYU and at San Diego State the past two weekends. The way for Utah to make amends is by pounding someone, Washington State is a solid candidate to take a beating and I think that’s the way this one plays out here.
Rising only attempted six passes all of last season so, for all intents and purposes, he’s a rookie here. With that being said the moment wasn’t too big for Rising last week who entered in relief and went 19 for 32 with 153 yards and three touchdowns and he should be comfortable running the offense against a lesser opponent at home here. The offense has been what’s been the issue for Utah, the Utes only gave up 26 to BYU and 24 in regulation last week so the Utah defense has been getting the job done as it was expected they would this season. In my opinion much of Utah’s offensive woes stem back to Charlie Brewer’s poor play so, while it’s still up in the air whether Rising is a rising star, I don’t think it’s possible he plays worse than Brewer did. Again, this is a far easier opponent for Utah and the Utes won’t have to deal with the away fans the way they did in Provo and Carson which are two notoriously tough places to play (the latter not so much the venue but SDSU has a rabid fan base). Utah probably won’t need to go very deep into the playbook to be effective here, I fully expect the Utah defense to come out and do their thing as they have been doing all season and if that all happens I don’t think there’s any way this one stays within two scores.
This might be a bold prediction but I think Utah comes out and wins by 30+ here. If de Laura ends up being out I wouldn’t be surprised if this line shot way up. Even with de Laura in there I still think this Utah defense eats him alive. Rising will do enough with the Utah offense and I’ll conservatively call it Utah by 20+. Play on Utah -15 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Michaels

Event: (397) Clemson at (398) NC State
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: NC State +10.0 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Adams

Event: (419) Texas A&M at (420) Arkansas

Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Arkansas +5.5 (-110)
Arkansas has gotten off to 3-0 start and they find themselves in a nice underdog role once again this weekend at AT&T Stadium. The Razorbacks have found success by playing elite level defense and not making critical errors. They’ve also gotten the job done on the ground, rushing for 333 yards in a SU win against Texas. The Aggies offense is really going to be put to the test here and asking them to cover this number away from home is a lot. This has the feel of a defensive battle. Take Arkansas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gianni the Greek

Event: (397) Clemson at (398) NC State
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: NC State +10.0 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers

Event: (363) UCLA at (364) Stanford
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 6PM EDT
Play: Total Over 58.5 (-110)
Take Stanford – UCLA OVER (#363-364)
The last four meetings between UCLA and Stanford have cashed Over bets, with three of the four turning into wild shootouts: 58-34, 49-42 and last year’s 48-47 double OT thriller. The sluggish Stanford offense we saw in Week 1 at Kansas State is a long way in the rear view mirror now – they’ve looked downright explosive over the last two weeks, hanging 42 on USC and 41 on Vandy, with QB Tanner McKee starting to look very comfortable in the pocket. UCLA plays at a breakneck pace under Chip Kelly; a team with all kinds of offensive potency and all kinds of defensive question marks that were on full display in their loss last week versus Fresno State. On a warm, sunny day on the Farm in Palo Alto, bettors should expect fireworks! Take the OVER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Event: (353) Florida Atlantic at (354) Air Force

Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Florida Atlantic +5.5 (-110)
This should be a very close game, and it's one where I feel the dog has a good chance to come away with an outright win. Some value at the price as I made Air Force just -2. I generally like getting three points the better of it on my projections when the line is -7 or less. I also suspect i might be a shade high on my Air Force power rating based on the eye test. The Falcons are going to get their yards on the ground with their option attack and while the passing game is not good at all, they can occasionally get a big play through the air. But I do not see much I like from the AFA defense. They got absolutely torched by Utah State last Saturday and while the Aggies are very much improved, they're still at best an average outfit. The earlier Air Force win over Navy meant little as that team is terrible. FAU got run over by Florida, but not in unacceptable fashion. The win over Fordham doesn't mean anything, but I did like what I saw in their victory over Georgia Southern. I see the Owls being able to generate plenty of offense here and think they can contain the option well enough to have a good chance at picking up a nice road win. Florida Atlantic plus the points is the choice.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Prez

Event: (351) Indiana at (352) Western Kentucky

Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Western Kentucky +9.0 (-110)
351 Indiana Hoosiers at 352 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +9, 63
The Indiana Hoosiers visit Kentucky for a Saturday contest against the Hilltoppers. Optimism continues to grow inside of the Western Kentucky program. A large crowd is expected for the matchup at LT Smith Stadium in Bowling Green. The Hoosiers are losing to the Cincinnati Bearcats while WKU was on a bye this past weekend.
After a pair of seasons in which the Hoosiers were better more times than not, the 2021 campaign has found Indiana experiencing expected regression. This non-con matchup comes down to the Hoosiers' ability to defend their half of LT Smith Stadium field. The Indiana defense was good in preventing big plays in their loss to Iowa. However, the Hawkeyes don't possess an explosive offense. The naked truth is that Indiana didn't show any mustard in the second half of last weekend's loss to the Bearcats.
Regardless of how well the Hoosiers defense holds up against the Hilltopper offense, it won't be enough for QB Michael Penix Jr and the Indiana "O" to outscore WKU head coach Tyson Helton his high-flying offense.
So free pick is a play on the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky and the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Anthony

Event: (24537) Shamil Abdurakhimov at (24538) Chris Daukaus

Sport/League: MMA

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Chris Daukaus winning via KO/TKO +130

In a preliminary bout Chris Daukaus faces Shamil Adburkhimov…
This is a spot we're getting off the big straight line on Daukaus (-200) and finding value in method of victory.
There's multiple red flags and reasons to bet on Shamil's demise. To start, he's been inactive for 2 years and at heavyweight that's a massive concern. Plus he's 40 years old which ring rust should be at a max upon his fight Saturday night. It's an odd choice of opponent for Daukaus, but a style at which he just recently fought and won. Last bout Chris faced Aleksei Oleinik who's basically the same type of fighter as Shamil. Old washed up fighter with a wrestling background. Not only did Chris defend heavy takedown attempts from Oleinik, but counter attacked smoothly off those attempts and landing. The result, a first round KO win over Oleinik and I believe will be very similar to what will happen against Shamil. The only path he has is top control riding out rounds, but Daukaus actually has good grappling and should be able to defend. Plus at 40 years old and long layoff I don't believe Shamil can wrestle all 3 rounds before gassing out. On the feet Chris will have a massive hand speed advantage and should dominate finding the big KO shot.
Add in the fact that Daukaus has 11 pro MMA wins, 10 of which came by knockout. I see him adding another KO to his record Saturday night.

Play: Chris Daukaus winning via KO/TKO (+130)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gianni the Greek

Event: (24541) Nasrat Haqparast at (24542) Dan Hooker
Sport/League: MMA

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 9PM EDT
Play: Nasrat Haqparast +130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo

Event: (359) South Florida at (360) BYU
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: September 25, 2021 10PM EDT
Play: South Florida +23.0 (-110)

This play is all about fading BYU. BYU has played better than anyone expected them to play while most College teams returned high numbers of starters because of eligibility rule changes due to Covid last year BYU didn’t as they only returned 11 total and their QB was an NFL 1st Rd Pick - Yet they are 3-0. It’s that 3-0 schedule that has me looking to fade them laying a big number. BYU opened the season here in Vegas in brand new Stadium. Then they were back home to face their biggest rival Utah. I stepped in front of them last week against Arizona St because it was such a bad spot for them. That Final Score may be the most misleading of the weekend as BYU won 27-17. BYU scored a TD in the final minute as it was 20-17 for most of the 4th Q. Arizona St had 4 TO’s and 16 penalties for 112 yards while BYU had just 3 penalties. Now they play S. Florida with Utah St on deck in 6 days on a Friday Night. Monster Look ahead spot for BYU off 3 satisfying Wins.
TAKE S. FLORIDA +23

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel: Parx PA Derby Day Pick 5 | Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021

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September 23, 2021
Parx Racing presents a magnificent 13-race program on Saturday that features eight Stakes races with purses of $200,000 or more, six of which are graded and include a pair of $ 1 million events for 3-year-olds, the Cotillion S. (for fillies) and the Pennsylvania Derby. First post is 12:05 ET. Let’s put the microscope on the 50 cent “Philly Big-5” wager that contains a jackpot carryover into Saturday of $155,80. Fans looking at the late pick four, Races 10-13, can enjoy a $10,000 hit and split promotion with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET.

RACE 9 (3:51 ET) - $300,000 Turf Monster S.-G3 – five furlongs (turf)

The first leg of the “Philly Big-5” requires a bit of a spread with at least three contenders that fall into the “must use” category. FIRECROW may deserve a very slight edge on top based on his ideal stalking style for this five furlong trip. The Ron Moquette-trained gelding is 2-for-12 in his career without Joel Rosario but a perfect 2-for-2 with him in the saddle. Rested since May but showing a pair of recent bullet workouts to have him cranked and ready, the lightly-raced gelding projects to draft into a comfortable early position and then have his chance to kick clear when set down. On pure numbers, CARAVEL is the fastest in the field, but she failed at 50 cents on the dollar when a fading third at Woodbine last month despite establishing a comfortable early lead. That race was a six furlongs; it’s worth noting that she’s undefeated in five career starts over five eighths. CAROTARI earned a career top number when a close second in the Troy S.-G3 at Saratoga in early August. If he can duplicate effort today, he’ll be right there.

Top Pick: 5-FIRECROW

Also on the ticket: 4-CAROTARI; 8-CARAVEL

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RACE 10 (4:22 PM ET) - $300,000 Gallant Bob S.-G2 – six furlongs

JACKIE’S WARRIOR is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite, but you can expect he’ll leave closer to 1/5. Victorious in seven of eight one-turn races, most recently with a career performance in in the H. Allen Jerkins Memorial S.-G1 at Saratoga, this top-class 3-year-old will be facing older rivals for the first time but based strictly on speed figures the son of Maclean’s Music has only himself to worry about. Could he significantly regress off that hard, taxing, grueling victory over Life Is Good just four weeks ago? Sure, it’s possible, but two recent bullet workouts suggest a bounce is unlikely, and from his cozy outside post regular rider Joel Rosario can dictate the race flow by stalking and then pouncing whenever he’s given his cue. In what will serve as his final prep race prior to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint-1G, the Steve Asmussen-trained colt is the proverbial free bingo space.

Top pick/single: 7-JACKIE’S WARRIOR

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RACE 11 (5:02 P.M. ET) - $1,000,000 Cotillion S.-G1 – One mile and one-sixteenth

The Cotillion S.-G1 is a challenging affair. Each of the eight intended starters have a right to at least hit the board, and, yes, that even includes MARACUJA, who somehow managed to win the C.C.A. Oaks-G1 two races back in a performance that came out of nowhere (she subsequently wound up last in the Alabama S.-G1). CLAIRIERE and ARMY WIFE, the two-three finishers in the Alabama, are difficult to separate and are “must uses.” OBLIGATORY is the most dangerous of the deep closers. She was flat in her only prior try around two-turns last March, but she’s improved and gained valuable seasoning since then and she ran better than the line will show when fourth in the Test S.-G1 last month at Saratoga. ALWAYS CARINA may prefer one corner but with Private Mission staying home today’s pace scenario projects to be soft, and as the controlling speed she could take this field a very long way.

We’ll make her gamble in the win pool at somewhere around 5-1.

Top Pick: 8-ALWAYS CARINA

Also on the ticket: 1-OBLIGATORY; 5-ARMY WIFE; 6-CLARIERE

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RACE 12 (5:49 PM ET) - $1 million Pennsylvania Derby-G1 – One mile and one-sixteenth.

HOT ROD CHARLIE is owed some good luck. The son of Oxbow ran far too well to lose when runner-up to Essential Quality (while 11 lengths clear of the rest) in the Belmont S.-G1 two races back and then had his number taken down after being subjected to a needlessly careless ride after finishing first in the subsequent Haskell S.-G1 in mid-July. Freshened and training better than ever in recent weeks, the Doug O’Neill-trained colt can cope with any pace flow, so with a clean trip he should be able to handle this assignment. There is one fresh face to consider – at least as a back-up or a saver – for those looking to spice up the ticket. SPEAKER’S CORNER returned off a 10 month layoff to annihilate an overnight field by more than five lengths at Saratoga in what was just his third career start. What he lacks in experience he could make up for in raw talent. In that seven furlong sprint, the son of Street Sense earned an eye-catching Beyer speed figure (101) that makes him competitive at this level, and with another forward move, well, who knows what he might be capable of?

Top Pick: 7-HOT ROD CHARLIE

Also on the ticket: 3-SPEAKER’S CORNER

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RACE 13 (6:20 PM ET) – ALPHABET SOUP H. – One mile and one-sixteenth (TURF)

We’re hoping to get a decent middle price horse home in the finale while preferring YOU MUST CHILL on top. Listed at 9/2 on the morning line, the versatile and genuine ex-Californian has won four of his last five, most recently a nice state-bred allowance race at Penn National, and from his favorable rail draw the Jamie Ness-trained gelding projects to draft into an ideal second flight, ground-saving position and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. There are several others in the field that warrant strong consideration, as well. WAIT FOR IT and IRISH CORK are unproven on turf but each has dirt speed figures that will make them formidable if they can transfer their form to the lawn. PRINCE OF RAIN finds himself in the same boat – he’s never been tried on the sod – but he’s stretching out following a sharp third place effort in a state-bred stakes sprint and could find himself on or near front end without having to be used. At 8-1 on the morning line, he has to be included somewhere.

Top Pick: 1-YOU MUST CHILL

Also on the ticket: 3-IRISH CORK, 7-PRINCE OF RAIN, 8-WAIT FOR IT

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PARX 50-CENT “PHILLY BIG 5” ($48 ticket)

RACE 9: 4, 5, 8

RACE 10: 7

RACE 11: 1, 5, 6, 8

RACE 12: 3, 7

RACE 13: 1, 3, 7, 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White: Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion Picks

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September 22, 2021 | By Jon White
Hot Rod Charlie and Midnight Bourbon head a field of 10 entered in this Saturday’s $1 million Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing.

Medina Spirit is one of the 10 entrants. However, Parx announced Tuesday that Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will be withdrawing him from the Pennsylvania Derby to run instead against older foes in Santa Anita’s Grade I Awesome Again Stakes on Oct. 2.

The Grade I Pennsylvania Derby is back this year after not being run last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Medina Spirit, who earlier this year finished first in the Grade I Kentucky Derby, had been made the 2-1 morning-line favorite for the Pennsylvania Derby. That Medina Spirit was entered but now will not be running does shine a light on the flawed system in which morning lines are done these days.

Back when I was first going to the races as a youngster in the 1960s, entries were taken the day before race day. The Daily Racing Form (which did not publish morning lines back then) came out the evening before race day. Scratch time was in the morning on race day. After scratches, the morning line was submitted, which is why it’s called the MORNING line. The track program then was printed that same morning to be sold on track in the afternoon.

In time, entries were taken a day earlier, 48 hours (or two days) prior to race day. Scratch time was moved up to the day before race day. The morning line also was moved up to be submitted the day before race day.

In many cases these days, entries often are taken even earlier than 48 hours prior to race day. And the morning line these days is submitted well in advance of race day in order for it to appear in the DRF.

Parx, for instance, took entries five days prior to the Pennsylvania Derby card. The morning line came out on Tuesday, four days prior to that card and before the announcement that Medina Spirit will not be running.

Russell Hudak for many years made the morning line for Hollywood Park, Del Mar and Thoroughbred meets at Los Alamitos. He hit the nail on the head when he once said a few years ago that “these aren’t MORNING lines anymore. Now they’re ADVANCE lines. That’s because the morning line is done so far in advance of race day.”

The original morning line for the Pennsylvania Derby, in post position order from the rail out, was as follows: Fulsome (12-1), Keepmeinmind (8-1), Speaker’s Corner (12-1), Weyburn (12-1), I Am Redeemed (20-1), Bourbonic (12-1), Hot Rod Charlie (5-2), Midnight Bourbon (5-1), Medina Spirit (2-1), Americanrevolution (15-1).

The Pennsylvania Derby morning line, of course, would have been made quite differently without Medina Spirit.

Indeed, according to a Parx Racing release Wednesday, a revised morning line has been issued and is as follows: Fulsome (10-1), Keepmeinmind (5-1), Speaker’s Corner (8-1), Weyburn (10-1), I Am Redeemed (20-1), Bourbonic (10-1), Hot Rod Charlie (8-5), Midnight Bourbon (3-1), Americanrevolution (15-1).

It’s nice that a more realistic revised morning line has been released. But the problem is, as of Wednesday afternoon, the original morning line for the Pennsylvania Derby is what still appears in the Daily Racing Form past performances. That morning line in the DRF is not likely to change. Also as of Wednesday afternoon, the original morning line for the Pennsylvania Derby likewise was still being listed by Equibase.

The vast majority of people are not going to be aware that there is a revised morning line for the Pennyslvania Derby. They will know only of the original morning line.

Hot Rod Charlie won this year’s Grade I Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park on July 17, but he was disqualified and placed last for causing Midnight Bourbon to clip heels and unseat jockey Paco Lopez during the stretch run.

Prior to the Haskell, Hot Rod Charlie did not win the Grade I Belmont Stakes at 1 1/2 miles on June 5, but he sure ran a marvelous race in defeat.

Hot Rod Charlie finished second in the Belmont, 1 1/4 lengths behind Essential Quality and a whopping 11 1/4 lengths in front of third-place finisher Rombauer, who was coming off a win in the Preakness.

What made Hot Rod Charlie’s performance in the Belmont so impressive is he managed to finish second despite running the first quarter-mile in :22.78 or :22 3/5 in fifths. It was the fastest opening quarter in the history of the Belmont when contested at 1 1/2 miles. The Belmont was first run in 1867.

Prior to Hot Rod Charlie, the quickest initial quarter in the Belmont when run at 1 1/2 miles had occurred all the way back in 1945. That’s when The Doge covered the initial quarter in :22 4/5, a torrid pace in such a long race on what was then a deep track. The Doge paid the price for his early efforts. He faltered and finished seventh in the field of eight. Pavot won by five lengths, while The Doge lost by a little more than 24 lengths.

The Belmont has been run at 1 1/2 miles a total of 95 times. Hot Rod Charlie ran the opening half-mile in :46.49 or :46 2/5 in fifths. The only horse to ever record a faster time for the first half-mile in a 1 1/2-mile Belmont was Secretariat, who was clocked in :46 1/5.

Below are the horses responsible for the only :46 and change fractional times in the history of the Belmont at 1 1/2 miles:

Year Time Horse, Finished (Winner if Different)

1973 :46 1/5 Secretariat, finished 1st
2021 :46 2/5 Hot Rod Charlie, finished 2nd (Essential Quality)
2013 :46 3/5 Frac Daddy, finished last in field of 14 (Palace Malice)
1991 :46 3/5 Corporate Report, finished 4th (Hansel)
1966 :46 3/5 Highest Honors, finished last in field of 13 (Amberoid)
1959 :46 3/5 Manassa Mauler, finished 4th (Sword Dancer)
1996 :46 4/5 Appealing Skier, finished 12th (Editor’s Note)
1957 :46 4/5 Bold Ruler, finished 3rd (Gallant Man)

The above chart points out just what a terrific race Hot Rod Charlie ran in the Belmont despite not winning. Even though he recorded the second-fastest half-mile time in the history of the race when contested at 1 1/2 miles, he finished far in front of everyone other than Essential Quality.

The following splits all belonged to Secretariat when he won the Belmont by 31 lengths to end a 25-year Triple Crown drought:

:23 3/5, :22 3/5, :23 3/5, :24 2/5, :24 4/5, 25 flat

These were the splits in this year’s Belmont:

:22 3/5, :23 3/5, :25 2/5, :25 1/5, :24 4/5, :24 3/5

Essential Quality, only a head off the leading Hot Rod Charlie at the quarter pole, is the one who ran the final quarter in :24 3/5. All the other splits belonged to Hot Rod Charlie.

Adding one-fifth of a second because Hot Rod Charlie lost by 1 1/4 lengths means that even though he posted the fastest opening quarter fraction in the history of the Belmont when contested at 1 1/2 miles, he still ran the final quarter in :24 4/5, a fifth of a second faster than Secretariat in his Belmont.

Doug O’Neill trains Hot Rod Charlie, a Kentucky-bred Oxbow colt.

Midnight Bourbon, trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, was the runner-up in the Preakness. After unseating his rider in the Haskell, the Kentucky-bred Tiznow colt ran a heckuva race to finish a close second to Essential Quality in Saratoga’s Grade I Travers Stakes on Aug. 28. Midnight Bourbon lost the Travers by only a neck while well clear (five lengths) of third-place finisher Miles D.

Below are my Pennsylvania Derby selections:

1. Hot Rod Charlie
2. Midnight Bourbon
3. Speaker’s Corner
4. Fulsome

In terms of deciding who to make my top pick, it was not an easy decision. I can easily see either Hot Rod Charlie or Midnight Bourbon winning this race.

I decided to give Hot Rod Charlie the nod. I admire his consistency. He has crossed the finish line first, second or third in seven consecutive starts.

I consider Hot Rod Charlie’s second in the Belmont to be the second-best performance by a 3-year-old in this country so far this year, topped only by Essential Quality’s victory in that race.

Flavien Prat pilots Hot Rod Charlie this Saturday. I expect them to get a good trip. I’m looking for “Charlie” to race forwardly early, then have the needed response when the real test comes.

Hot Rod Charlie won the Grade II Louisiana Derby on March 20. Midnight Bourbon finished second.

I came very close to putting Midnight Bourbon on top in my Pennsylvania Derby picks. If he runs anything like he did in the 1 1/4-mile Travers, he is going to be one tough dude this Saturday.

Meanwhile, I think Speaker’s Corner should be taken very seriously this Saturday. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, the Kentucky-bred Street Sense colt ran third in a six-furlong maiden race when unveiled at the 2020 Saratoga meet, then won a seven-furlong maiden contest the following month at Belmont Park.

Speaker’s Corner did not race again until he won a seven-furlong allowance affair by 5 1/4 lengths this year at Saratoga on Aug. 14. He now stretches out to nine furlongs.

Talk about an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern. Speaker’s Corner recorded a 59 Beyer in his first race, then an 80, then a 101 in his most recent triumph.

Brad Cox trains Fulsome. It is a plus for Fulsome that he has a win on Parx’s main track. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt registered a two-length victory on that oval Aug. 24 in the Grade III Smarty Jones Stakes.

TWO NOTABLE ABSENCES

Rock Your World and First Captain had been candidates for the Pennsylvania Derby, but neither was entered.

In the case of Rock Your World, trainer John Sadler texted the DRF’s Steve Andersen to say the Grade I Santa Anita Derby winner will make his next start in Santa Anita’s Grade II Twilight Derby on the grass Oct. 31.

Rock Your World finished second to Medina Spirit in Del Mar’s Shared Belief Stakes on the dirt Aug. 29. The Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt, a $650,000 auction purchase, is two for two on the turf. His first stakes victory came in Santa Anita’s Pasadena Stakes on the grass Feb. 27.

The DRF’s David Grening reported that First Captain will not race again this year due to an ankle issue, according to Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey.

A Kentucky-bred Curlin colt purchased for $1.5 million at auction, First Captain won his first three career starts before finishing third in Saratoga’s Curlin Stakes on July 30.

PENNSYLVANIA DERBY WINNING BEYERS

Below are the Beyers for Pennsylvania Derby winners going back to 1992 (the figures are listed in the 2021 American Racing Manual, which is now digital only and available for free on The Jockey Club’s website):

2020 not run
2019 Math Wizard (99)
2018 McKinzie (107)
2017 West Coast (107)
2016 Connect (103)
2015 Frosted (106)
2014 Bayern (110)
2013 Will Take Charge (105)
2012 Handsome Mike (93)
2011 To Honor and Serve (105)
2010 Morning Line (103)
2009 Gone Astray (104)
2008 Anak Nakal (100)
2007 Timber Reserve (105)
2006 not run
2005 Sun King (103)
2004 Love of Money (112)
2003 Grand Hombre (108)
2002 Harlan’s Holiday (96)
2001 Macho Uno (104)
2000 Pine Dance (105)
1999 Smart Guy (109)
1998 Rock and Roll (110)
1997 Frisk Me Now (114)
1996 Devil’s Honor (114)
1995 Pineing Patty (108)
1994 Meadow Flight (106)
1993 Wallenda (100)
1992 Thelastcrusade (107)

SHORTER TRIP SHOULD HELP ARMY WIFE

In Saratoga’s Grade I Alabama Stakes at 1 1/4 miles on Aug. 21, Army Wife had the lead a furlong out before weakening slightly to finish third. Malathaat won by 1 1/2 lengths, while Clariere edged Army Wife by a half-length for second.

Cutting back from 1 1/4 miles to 1 1/16 miles in this Saturday’s Grade I, $1 million Cotillion Stakes figures to help Army Wife.

Below are my Cotillion selections:

1. Army Wife
2. Clairiere
3. Maracuja
4. Always Carina

Mike Maker trains Army Wife. Prior to the Alabama, the Kentucky-bred Declaration of War filly won the Grade II Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico on May 14 and Grade III Iowa Oaks at Prairie Meadows on July 2.

Clairiere certainly merits much respect. She’s finished third or better in seven of eight lifetime starts. Back on Feb. 13, the Kentucky-bred Curlin filly won the Grade II Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. That’s been her lone stakes victory to date.

Maracuja won Saratoga’s Grade I Coaching Club American Oaks in a 14-1 upset on July 24. Malathaat finished second as the overwhelming 3-10 favorite when suffering her first defeat. Malathaat then gained revenge when winning the Alabama, a race in which Maracuja wound up seventh.

Rob Atras trains Maracuja, a Kentucky-bred Honor Code filly.

Always Carina, a member of the powerful Chad Brown string, won her first two career starts by margins of four and 9 3/4 lengths. But she then lost her next two races, both when moving up in class into graded stakes races. The Kentucky-bred Malibu Moon filly ran second in Belmont’s Grade II Mother Goose Stakes on June 26, then finished fourth in Saratoga’s Grade I Test Stakes on Aug. 7.

Considering how dominant Always Carina was in her first two races, I think it is possible that she could prove a tough customer in the Cotillion.

Private Mission also might have been a tough customer in the Cotillion off her 6 1/2-length win in Del Mar’s Grade III Torrey Pines Stakes. But she, like Medina Spirit, will be staying home in California, according to Baffert. The plan now is for Private Mission to make her next start vs. her elders in Santa Anita’s Grade I Zenyatta Stakes on Oct. 3. She has won three of four career starts.

WALTON STREET DAZZLES IN CANADA

In a scintillating performance, Walton Street won last Saturday’s Grade I Canadian International by 5 3/4 lengths at Woodbine.

Sent away as the odds-on favorite and ridden by the great Frankie Dettori, Walton Street completed 1 1/2 miles on the grass in 2:29.17. The 7-year-old Great Britain-bred gelding won with such authority as to make his 4-5 odds seem downright generous.

Desert Encounter finished second in the field of eight. Primo Touch came in third, 4 3/4 lengths behind Desert Encounter, who won the Canadian International in 2018 and 2019. The Canadian International was not run in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Walton Street was credited with a 110 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort last Saturday. It’s clearly the best turf Beyer thus far this year.

Below are the highest grass Beyers of 2021 through Sept. 21:

Beyer Horse (Finish, Race, Track, Date)

110 Walton Street (Won, G1 Canadian International, WO, Sept. 18)
106 Domestic Spending (Won, G1 Manhattan, Bel, June 5)
106 Raging Bull (Won, G1 Maker’s Mark Mile, Kee, April 9)
105 Gear Jockey (Won Turf Sprint, KD, Sept. 11)
105 Casa Creed (Won, G1 Jaipur, Bel, June 5)
105 Bound for Nowhere (Won, G2 Shakertown, Kee, April 3)

Another indication of how wonderfully Walton Street ran in the Canadian Interational, his robust 110 Beyer would be good enough to have won 10 of the last 12 editions of the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Below are the Beyers for BC Turf winners going back 12 years to 2009:

2020 Tarnawa (109)
2019 Bricks and Mortar (104)
2018 Enable (114)
2017 Talismanic (108)
2016 Highland Reel (112)
2015 Found (108)
2014 Main Sequence (106)
2013 Magician (107)
2012 Little Mike (105)
2011 St Nicholas Abbey (108)
2010 Dangerous Midge (104)
2009 Conduit (106)

APPLEBY’S EXTRAORDINARY RECORD

Charlie Appleby trains Walton Street. As noted during the NBCSN broadcast of the Canadian International and Woodbine Mile, Appleby had won with nine of his 26 North American starters prior to last Saturday’s racing.

And then last Saturday, Appleby not only won the Canadian International with Walton Street, he sent out Yibir to take Belmont’s $1 million Jockey Club Derby. On Sunday at Woodbine, Appleby won both the Grade I Natalma Stakes with Wild Beauty and Grade I Summer Stakes with Albahr. Appleby’s lone North American loss last weekend came in Belmont’s $700,000 Jockey Club Oaks, in which Creative Flair finished fourth.

Following Appleby’s stakes victories at Woodbine and Belmont last weekend, he now has won with 13 of his 31 North American starters (a sensational 42%).

Appleby has won with three of his seven Breeders’ Cup starters. His Breeders’ Cup winners have been Outstrip (2013 Juvenile Turf), Wuheida (2017 Filly & Mare Turf) and Line of Duty (2018 Juvenile Turf).

TOWN CRUISE TAKES WOODBINE MILE

On the same card as the Canadian International, Town Cruise led past every pole and won the Grade I Woodbine Mile by 2 1/4 lengths at odds of 8-1.

Space Traveller finished second at 13-1. Raging Bull ran third at 7-2. Set Piece, the 8-5 favorite, ended up seventh in the field of 10.

This was Town Cruise’s first stakes victory. Brandon Greer trains the 6-year-old gelding.

Town Cruise recorded a career-best 104 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in the Woodbine Mile.

According to the DRF’s Ron Gierkink, Greer said Town Cruise will not race again in 2021. The Kentucky-bred son of Town Prize is to return in 2022. His main target, according to Greer, will be to try for a second Woodbine Mile victory.

Gierkink did not report on how Walton Street came out of his Canadian International win or what the plans are for him.

RESTRAINEDVENGENCE NEARS MILLIONAIRE STATUS

Proving a punctual 13-10 favorite, Restrainedvengence won last Saturday’s $200,000 Downs at Albuquerque Handicap by a slim margin in New Mexico.

Toting top weight of 123 pounds, Restainedvengence completed 1 1/8 miles in 1:48.26. He nosed out Tenfold for the victory. Tenfold carried 120 pounds. Sheriff Brown finished third under 118 pounds.

Tenfold ran third in the 2018 Preakness, which was won by Triple Crown winner Justify.

Sheriff Brown finished third in Del Mar’s recent Grade I Pacific Classic, which was won by Tripoli.

Restrainedvengence’s win last Saturday boosted his career bankroll to $917,682. Val Brinkerhoff trains the 6-year-old Kentucky-bred Hold Me Back gelding.

I have become a fan of Restrainedvengence, who now has seven stakes victories to his credit, including one at the Grade III level. He won Santa Anita’s Grade III American Stakes on the grass earlier this year on June 20.

Restrainedvengence has been a stakes winner at 3, 4, 5 and 6. He now is on the brink of becoming a millionaire.

Once upon a time it was a huge deal for a racehorse to earn a million bucks. For instance, when I bought my first Daily Racing Form in 1966 at Longacres, there were only six equine millionaires in the world. They were:

$1,977,896 Kelso
$1,749,869 Round Table
$1,288,565 Nashua
$1,241,165 Carry Back
$1,237,174 Buckpasser
$1,085,760 Citation

To put Kelso’s career earnings of $1,977,896 into perspective, that sum equates to about $16.7 million today when adjusted for inflation.

And don’t forget, there were no lucrative Saudi Cups, Dubai World Cups, Breeders’ Cups or Pegasus World Cups back when mighty Kelso was racing.

THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

The order of the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll is unchanged from last week. The Top 10 is listed below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 333 Knicks Go (20)
2. 312 Letruska (6)
3. 304 Essential Quality (10)
4. 166 Gamine
5. 152 Maxfield
6. 133 Max Player
7. 112 Domestic Spending
8. 105 Jackie’s Warrior
9. 85 Malathaat
10. 58 Silver State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays for 9/25/21

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September 25, 2021
Churchill Downs – Race 7. Post time: 3:50 ET
9 – Cloudy (6-1)

Was quite impressive displaying excellent speed in the OBS April sale when previewing in 10 seconds flat and then brought $130,000 through the ring, a goodly sum for a son of Noble Mission. His recent workouts aren’t quite as flashy for a trainer that doesn’t usually work his maidens fast, but from a cozy outside post Shug’s colt should have every chance to display his best stuff in this six-furlong dash for juveniles. In an open fray with no apparent world beaters in this field, this quick-actioned colt has a chance to pull off an upset so at 6-1 on the morning line we’ll use him in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

*
Churchill Downs – Race 10. Post time: 5:26 ET
3 – Bob’s Edge (8-1)

In a competitive seven-furlong stakes sprint appears to have plenty of early speed signed on, this late-running gelding may have a real chance to produce a winning late kick at a nice price. A genuine and consistent son of Competitive Edge, he was a sizzling winner over the local main track two runs back in a strong overnight race that produced a career top speed figure and if he can reproduce that type of effort against this group he’ll be right there. At 8-1 on the morning line, the L. Jones-trained gelding is worth a bit of a gamble.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: FL Sire Stakes In Reality at Gulfstream Park

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September 23, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$400,000 FLORIDA SIRE STAKES IN REALITY AT GULFSTREAM
Saturday, September 25, 2021

The Lead:
Saturday's Gulfstream Park card stuffs 4 stakes races onto the marquee, including the series finales for the Florida Sire Stakes. The 2-year-old fillies will have to scoot to catch heavily favored Outfoxed in the My Dear Girl division. As for the colts and geldings, the mile and one-sixteenth In Reality division looks to be far more competitive in Race 11.

Field Depth:
Florida Sire Stakes series winners OCTANE and CAJUN'S MAGIC return and re-match. They're the stakes winners in the 10-horse cast, while BIG AND CLASSY and GOLD SPECIAL are stakes-placed. As reminded in this space often, with 2-year-olds, don't get tied up with class levels. Some stakes are easier than others; some maiden races harder than you think. Only time will tell as to the level of class of many of these races.

Pace:
OCTANE went wire to wire last out and is expected to be battling early with new face ONE MORE SCORE and past rival BIG AND CLASSY, both drawn just to his inside. The quick run to the clubhouse turn at this configuration will be key how the In Reality plays out. Will OCTANE be able to clear those inside of him, or have to overcome a bit wider trip? With all the stretch-out sprinters trying 2 turns on dirt, many will be 'all-in' midway on the far turn.

Our Eyes:
Since 2016, 6 of these 9 stretch-out juvenile stakes at Gulfstream have been won by horses coming off of victories, and 8 of the 9 ran first or second last time out. History says don't expect a big form reversal or wake-up. The last-out winners in this race obviously include OCTANE, along with recent maiden breakers THE SKIPPER TOO and ONE MORE SCORE. The primary focus for me will be to hone in on these, along with CAJUN'S MAGIC, runner-up in the Affirmed to OCTANE. Beyond that quartet, anything else will come as a surprise. BIG AND CLASSY has run evenly as a sprinter, which translates to routes often, but may need a wet track for his best.

So can wet get CAJUN'S MAGIC to upset OCTANE? The post position draw was highly advantageous for this trip for CAJUN'S MAGIC (post 2) over OCTANE (post 7). Not just that 1 horses is closer to the rail than the other, which helps stretching out around 2 turns, but also that the other speed in the race is inside of OCTANE. You could see a dynamite trip forming for CAJUN'S MAGIC sitting inside about third or fourth, and trying to punch them out late. But he's been a product of fast early/slow late races, including the Affirmed, where the winner got only a 77 BRIS late pace figure -- and that was a career-best at that. Yes, CAJUN'S MAGIC could turn the tables Saturday, but my feeling is neither of the Affirmed top-2 are absolutely craving to run farther.

In terms of value, the play is to decipher between THE SKIPPER TOO and ONE MORE SCORE. The public almost assuredly will go toward ONE MORE SCORE based on a singular digit -- the 13-length winning margin last time out. Big margins get eyeballs and dollars. But ONE MORE SCORE had 2 chances against this race's favorites already and was only able to muster third-place finishes behind them. He, too, has maxed out around 75 for BRIS late pace figures; so the distance may not be the best deal. This leaves THE SKIPPER TOO in the crosshairs, and he'll be the biggest price of the 4 most likely. He's popped 83 and 91 BRIS late pace figures in his last 2 starts and has been a part of slow-early/fast-late races that could benefit him on the increased distance. He's got 5 races under his belt for more foundation, and that never hurts when asked for the longest trip yet. With CAJUN'S MAGIC and OCTANE having to give 4 pounds to the others, we get another potential boost and aid for the assignment.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CAJUN'S MAGIC should deliver from an inside draw with an honest effort.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
THE SKIPPER TOO should be a good price and the one I want.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$70 win THE SKIPPER TOO. $15 exacta box THE SKIPPER TOO and CAJUN'S MAGIC.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Arlington - Race #4

#7 Morrie's Joy	Stretchout player showed some life on the move to the grass last time out, and there is enough pedigree on both sides to get her around two turns. Something like the 10/1 ML price would be plenty appealing.
#9 Kyleigh's Candy	She never picked up when going short in the debut, but she's meant to be at her best going long, so she's got some intrigue at a nice number. Worth including.
#1 Maid of Honor	She fits well with these but she has had 10 chances already and doesn't have any apparent upside at this point in time. I'll try to beat her.
Race Summary	Morrie's Joy and Kyleigh's Candy are both interesting stretchout players, and they'll both be on my tickets in a race where I'm inclined to play against the ML chalks.

Arlington - Race #6

#10 Follow the Signs	He was in really good form earlier this summer, and he appears to be working forwardly enough for this Closing Day try. He's reliable enough over the local footing and may be able to spring a mild upset.
#5 Get Hammered	Tough to argue with anything he's done since coming back into the Rivelli barn, but there is at least some chance that his last was the first step in the wrong direction in his form cycle. Tough read at a short kind of price.
#7 Mkar the Fast	I liked his last a little bit when grinding along late at a price, and he's going to be a number again with this group. Passes some tired ones.
Race Summary	Follow the Signs and Get Hammered will be prominent on my tickets, with Mkar the Fast on backup plays in case this comes apart, but one of the top pair seems likely to land this.

Arlington - Race #9

#9 Belle Brezing	Think she might get slightly overlooked with a couple of other players more likely to take some cash, and there may be just enough pace to set things up for her late run.
#7 Juju's Specialgirl	Would be fitting for Rivelli to land what might be the final race here, and she's very tough if she holds her form while stepping up. That said, she has rattled off a couple of super sharp wins, and she's eligible for starters for some time now but is still in for $20k. Slightly mixed signals.
#11 Dawn's Dancer	She seems like a single or spread type of call -- her overall form has been sharp with decent groups, but she definitely doesn't have to win this race at what might be a short-ish price.
Race Summary	Belle Brezing gets the call in this second start off a brief rest in what is likely the last race at Arlington. She should be a fair price, and I'll try to get her home in the finale.