Tuesday 9/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Monday Myths: Are Horses Bet Down From Morning Line Live?

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September 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Horses bet down from their morning line odds are ‘live’ and ready to win.

Background:

The morning line may only be a fictional number created on the estimation of a singular person, the track linemaker, but it’s level of debate is great among horeplayers. When a horse is bet lower than that morning line, you’ll often hear players talk about how ‘live’ the horse is in the betting. Sometimes it’s a case of a bad line estimation; sometimes the public surprises reasonable prognostication. But are those horses bet down off their morning line really as ‘live’ as many assume?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at the odds ranks of horses based on their morning line and their off odds, looking at every Thoroughbred race in North America this year. By odds rank, we mean that the favorite is ranked 1 in lowest odds, the second betting choice 2, etc. What I want to see is how often a second, third, fourth choice etc. is bet down to the favorite’s status and how well they do. I looked at both win percentage and $1 ROI for the top four wagering choices as well as the fifth-and-above category.

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Morning line favorites bet to favoritism win 40% with a $0.83 ROI.
Morning line second choices bet to favoritism win 35% with a $0.86 ROI.
Morning line third choices bet to favoritism win 33% with a $0.85 ROI.
Morning line fourth choices bet to favoritism win 30% with a $0.84 ROI.
Morning line fifth and above choices bet to favoritism win 30% with a $0.90 ROI.
Post-time favorites overall win 37% with a $0.83 ROI.

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Morning line favorites bet to second-favoritism win 23% with a $0.76 ROI.
Morning line second choices bet to second-favoritism win 22% with a $0.81 ROI.
Morning line third choices bet to second-favoritism win 21% with a $0.82 ROI.
Morning line fourth choices bet to second-favoritism win 21% with a $0.84 ROI.
Morning line fifth and above choices bet to second-favoritism win 19% with a $0.82 ROI.
Second post-time choices overall win 22% with a $0.81 ROI.

Overall Findings:

With each category of morning line selection, the likelihood of victory decreased as the morning line selection order increased. The ROI remained relatively steady throughout, but was best when taking the highest-ranked morning line performers who were bet to favoritism. The same can be said about the morning line’s correlation to horses who wound up second-favorite in the final betting: the win percentage decreased slightly with each higher ranking in the pecking order. The most likely winner among favorites is a horse who was the morning line favorite (40%), and that held true for the most likely winners among horses who were the eventual second betting choices, with morning line favorites winning (23%) most there as well.

Bottom line:

If you’re in the camp that says a horse bet down to favorite or second-favorite off a higher morning line is ‘live,’ these aren’t the numbers that you’re looking for after more than 10,000 races. It might bemoan many to know that the morning line maker actually gets it right in conjunction with the betting public with more success than the public out-foxes the line. The ROI shows there is money to made when the situation does arise that a horse far, far misplaced in the line gets bet to the chalk, but those kind win far less than when the morning line chalk and the public aligns.

Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, see which tracks this particular data dig works best, or worst, at. Sort by human connections to find out which trainers or jockeys perform best when they are bet down off a morning line price, etc.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #3

#1 Timeless Bounty	He's worth another look in this second try over the local footing, as he took on stakes company in his previous try here. He's just quick enough to stay in touch early from the fence.
#3 Stevis Man	He steps up in sharp form, but he doesn't always bring his A-game right back after a big effort, and he rolled a softer bunch last time out. Capable underlay.
#5 Blichton	He brings pretty reliable form with him, but he might find one or two of these just a bit too tough with their best stuff. Can't fault those who side with the ace local jockey signing on.
Race Summary	Timeless Bounty has been showing a bit better tactical pace in recent starts, and he might be able to track Stevis Man while saving some ground on the turn. Something like the 5/1 ML price would seem fair.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#7 Come On Let's Ride	She draws well to use her pace to attack early if anyone else wants to flash pace further inside, and he has the kind of form that looks fairly competitive on the rise to face winners for the first time.
#2 Remain Anonymous	Have to respect her relative consistency and overall form, but she was just beaten at 1/5 against three others, and she sure has been toiling at this level for some time, hasn't she? Worth trying to beat.
#1 Cinco de Mandee	She outran her odds last out when 20/1, and something similar to that would keep her in the frame with the best in here. She should be part of the action early.
Race Summary	Come On Let's Ride finally graduated in her 10th career start while racing for a new barn for the first time, and maybe she can back that effort up while facing tougher here.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#3 Lexatoga	He comes right back at the same level as a first-time gelding for the new connections, and even a small move forward for this team off the claim would make him competitive here.
#6 Enjoy the Music	He rolled to land the maiden win when dropping in for $7,500 last out, and he's a logical threat right back against winners. Chance, but he's probably not going to offer a fair price with these.
#9 Bettys Bomber	He can show some positional pace while moving around two turns, and he has been in some of the best form of his career in recent starts. Chance to hang around for a piece at a price.
Race Summary	Lexatoga and Enjoy the Music both seem logical, but the former might be a slightly better price while racing as a first-time gelding.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Pocono Downs - Race #4

#1 HAZEL PARK	Chased winner, held second in comeback try, moves outside in.
#2 HALLEYSBIGCOMET	Awakened in second qualifier for 35-percent Alagna barn.
#3 AILEY HANOVER	Rallied for minor awards in her last three starts at Pocono.
Race Summary	Hazel Park tracked the 5-1 winner as the pace slowed in the second quarter and finished ahead of the late-running favorite. Now she draws the rail for her second start after 10 weeks away. Play a 1/2,3/ALL trifecta.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3

#9 BEACH GLASS	Benefited from three troubled rivals, but lived up to debut hype nonetheless.
#10 SHIP DISTURBER	Exits fast heat, led and finished second in prior two starts.
#4 SUPERVISETHEMOMENT	Showed pulse in sire stakes, switches pilots again.
Race Summary	Beach Glass, unhurried in fourth after the 3-2 second favorite broke stride, inhaled the leaders on the final turn and wasn't asked for much run through a :26.1 final quarter. He galloped out farther in front and is a likely repeater as the possible odds-on favorite. Bet on him to win and place.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10

#8 JUST DAISY	Took on larger oval, rallied strongly while 4-wide in lane.
#4 LADY AKILA	Got jump on top one, loomed boldly on turn, flattened out.
#1 FASTERTHANARUMOR	Remains eligible for same spot as front-end victory.
Race Summary	Just Daisy handled the transition from the half-mile circuit to Woodbine-Mohawk Park well enough to earn a playback at a good price. She mounted a strong, 4-wide rally to finish fourth on a sloppy track. Play a 1-4-8 exacta box.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Indiana Grand - Race #3

#5 Go Yeowomen	Crushed bottom claimers last out and was impressive enough to consider as she steps up in class.
#2 Anitalya	Ran on well and just missed in her last two; finishes well and will get a good pace setup.
#8 Lady Leah	Loves to be on the front end and will send from the outside; can be difficult to catch.
Race Summary	Go Yeowomen put it all together with an easy win last time out and can be a strong player if she runs back to that one.

Indiana Grand - Race #5

#1 Ursulina	Faded in her last two at Ellis Park and shows sign of leaning back into good form; broke her maiden at Fair Grounds and looks like turf sprints are her cup of tea.
#7 Je Suis Belle	Set the pace in her last five races and stayed for the win in two of her last three; a specialist under these conditions.
#9 Miller's Maiden	Was an easy maiden winner last out and can make her presence felt from the outside.
Race Summary	Ursulina has been in against some good fillies and rates the edge in here; can get back to winning ways.

Indiana Grand - Race #8

#9 Sacred Kiki Bird	Has been clear early in her last two and has stuck around for second and third; can get a good trip from the outside and will be the one to catch.
#5 Two Last Words	Has been in much better races and can be a tough customer in this one.
#3 Touchofchilipepper	Comes out of stronger races and the class drop could wake her up.
Race Summary	Sacred Kiki Bird has the speed to clear the field from the outside and can dictate how this one develops.

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (224285) Liverpool at (224286) FC Porto
Sport/League: UEFA
Date/Time: September 28, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: Liverpool -141
I like Liverpool here on Tuesday to beat Porto over at the Estadio do Dragao in Portugal.
Liverpool come off a poor 3-3 result against Brentford domestically but are a team who absolutely shine on the European stage.
The Reds come off a 3-2 win against AC Milan in their opening UCL game and despite the tight result, were head and shoulders the better team in that game, getting sucker punched by Milan late in the first half with two goals by the visitors in quick succession that really came from nowhere as the balance of play was all Liverpool up to that point.
Porto drew with Atletico in the other group stage game but Atletico are a team who have underperformed to start off this season, both domestically and in Europe, and that somewhat skews Porto's good result against them.
Porto may be without veteran leader Pepe in this one also and that'll be a huge blow for the home side here if he is indeed ruled out as he's the lynchpin of this Porto full back partnership.
Take Liverpool on Tuesday to get the win in Portugal against Porto as they look to maintain their perfect start in Europe.
PLAY: LIVERPOOL ML -141

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Tony Mejia

Event: (613) Chicago Sky at (614) Connecticut Sun

Sport/League: WNBA

Date/Time: September 28, 2021 8PM EDT
Play: Total Over 152.5 (-110)
The WNBA playoffs continue with a pair of best-of-five semifinal series beginning on Tuesday. While riding with Las Vegas sure is tempting given that it posted the top record in the Western Conference, the fact the Aces are playing a team that comes in battle-tested after consecutive one-off elimination game wins, including an OT affair on Sunday in Seattle, gives us pause. Las Vegas won two of three regular-season matchups, but they were all tight games. We’ll see if rust comes into play. The other semi pits No. 6 seed Chicago visiting Connecticut for Game 1. The Sky beat the Sun twice in their regular-season meetings and know what’s in store for them against the WNBA’s top defensive team. Expect them to come out firing to ensure they won’t get bogged down, which should play to our advantage because this total simply looks too low. Ride the over on 152.5 points in Game 1 of Connecticut/Chicago.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

Thistledown - Race 6	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / $.10 Superfecta
Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $25,500 • Post: 3:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. POMPEY'S RULE is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * COMPLY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ha s the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. WINWITHJIMMY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TRADEOFF: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. IRIE ISLAND MAN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface.
1	COMPLY	9/2	7/2
2	WINWITHJIMMY	6/1	7/1
7	TRADEOFF	4/1	8/1
6	IRIE ISLAND MAN	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	VALEROSO	5	3/1	Front-runner	71	57	73.3	48.9	40.9
2	WINWITHJIMMY	2	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	86	79	60.5	51.3	42.3
3	GALTERO	3	5/2	Stalker	61	61	43.0	51.4	42.4
7	TRADEOFF	7	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	62	69.2	58.8	55.3
1	COMPLY	1	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	78	66	56.7	67.8	64.8
6	IRIE ISLAND MAN	6	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	65	56.4	53.4	42.9
4	POMPEY'S RULE	4	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	56	54	50.6	46.4	35.9

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 6	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 58 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 5:00P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. BOLD BIZNESS is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOLD BIZNESS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CAPTAIN HARVEY: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. MALIBU CLASSIC: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. OFF TO THE RACES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
9	BOLD BIZNESS	5/2	4/1
6	CAPTAIN HARVEY	7/2	6/1
1	MALIBU CLASSIC	6/1	8/1
8	OFF TO THE RACES	3/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	CHARLIE TWO SOX	4	12/1	Front-runner	0	0	68.3	33.2	26.7
12	LEO'S ROAR	12	10/1	Front-runner	0	0	64.9	16.3	5.3
11	BONNIE BILL	11	50/1	Front-runner	0	0	27.5	3.8	0.0
8	OFF TO THE RACES	8	3/1	Stalker	54	53	28.4	50.2	42.7
1	MALIBU CLASSIC	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	51	36.0	42.3	36.3
7	MOTION TO ADJOURN	7	30/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	35	29.5	26.6	15.1
9	BOLD BIZNESS	9	5/2	Trailer	64	53	17.1	50.2	47.7
10	PROTECTED AREA	10	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	36.0	13.3	2.3
2	BASSCOAT	2	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: POWERUPJUSTICE (20/1) [Jockey: Sanjur Santo - Trainer: Nance Jonathan], SOCKET (20/1) [Jockey: Prescott Rodney A - Trainer: Eggleston Tim], CAPTAIN HARVEY (7/2) [Jockey: Pedroza Marcelino - Trainer: Granitz Anthony J], C F V TE

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Free Winners for Tuesday, September 28th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
FINGER LAKES
RACE #5
TIME: 3:06 PM EST
PICK: BET #7 Double D Day 7/2 odds to win @ Bovada

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $3,000 2 LBS. BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 LITTLE GROOT 8/5
# 5 MARTELLO 3/1
# 2 APPELLANT 6/1

LITTLE GROOT is my choice. This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 4 out of 16 in his races as of late. Looks quite good to be close to the lead at the first call. Should be given a chance in this competition if only for the competitive speed rating garnered in the last race. MARTELLO - Has very good speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in this competition. Jarvis is trying to win with this entrant by bringing him back so quickly. APPELLANT - Posted a solid speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. Shows signs of the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 69 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the most respectable in this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Parx Racing - Race #7 - Post: 3:37pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#3 BELLSWILLBERINGING (ML=9/2)


BELLSWILLBERINGING - Trainer Contessa moves this one down the ladder based on class to face a lower class of horses. Look for a solid race given the class advantage. Look for this filly to run better right here. Last clash at Delaware Park finishing eighth on the soft turf is no sign of her true talent. Maiden is changing to the main track, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to break maiden.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 VINO Y QUESO (ML=9/5), #6 FUNNY ENOUGH (ML=5/2),

VINO Y QUESO - This filly hasn't had any recent accomplishments in short distance contests. No picnic to invest in her in this race. I think this morning-line favorite needs this race under her belt to start getting back into shape. FUNNY ENOUGH - Don't figure that this steed is worth 5/2 in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 BELLSWILLBERINGING to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 72

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 28, 2021. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 COMFORTABLE CAT 7/2
# 4 DO WHAT IT TAKES 9/5
# 1 CHASING LOSSES 5/2

My selection in this race is COMFORTABLE CAT. Could provide positive profits based on solid recent speed figs with an average of 59. Has been racing very well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Has to be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. DO WHAT IT TAKES - Vaunts formidable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this field. A solid 77 avg Equibase class rating may give this mare a distinct class edge versus this group. CHASING LOSSES - Has raced soundly in dirt sprint races. Had one of the top speed figures of this group in her last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Sep 28 '21, 12:45 PM in 1h
Soccer | Inter Milan vs Shakhtar Donetsk
Play on: Inter Milan -180 at Mirage

1* Free Sharp Play on Inter Milan -180

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Info Plays

Sep 28 '21, 2:45 PM in 3h
Soccer | AFC Wimbledon vs Rotherham United
Play on: Rotherham United -128 at linepros

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Rotherham United -128