Thursday 9/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 05:49 AM

Gulfstream 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

September 28, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday (new 12:50 pm ET daily post; racing on Tapeta surface begins Thursday)

Carryovers:

$216,828 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot ($350,000-guaranteed pool Thursday)

Feature Race(s):

No stakes scheduled.

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Win % (35%, +$50.40)
% Of Horses Beaten (30%, +$12.20)
(In The Money) ITM % (27%, +$16.60)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

J: Luca Panici // last week 18: 5-2-3 (28%, $1.16 ROI) // winners at $4, $6, $8, $9, $13
J: Edgard Zayas // last week 24: 6-9-3 (25%, $0.82 ROI) // 18-49 over past 2 weeks
T: Saffie Joseph Jr. // last week: 14: 4-6-2 (29%, $0.89 ROI) // all 4 wins 2-1 or less // 7-21 over past 2 weeks
T: Ron Spatz // last week 3: 2-0-0 (66%, $3.47 ROI) // $6 and $14 winners // 2-2 with Miguel Vasquez
T: Merei Amador Sanchez // last week 5: 2-0-1 (40%, $1.56 ROI) // 2-2 in maiden claimers

** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 06:05 AM

Laurel Park 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

September 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
1/ST Look: Laurel Park 5 Facts (September 28-October 3)

Schedule:

Thursday-Sunday

Carryovers:

$2,555 // Rainbow 6 Jackpot

Feature Race(s):

$150,000 Laurel Futurity // 2-year-olds on turf // Saturday
$150,000 Selima // 2-year-old fillies on turf // Saturday
$100,000 Laurel Dash // turf sprinters // Saturday
$100,000 Japan Turf Cup // turf marathoners // Saturday
$100,000 All Along // turf route fillies & mares // Saturday

Key 1/ST BET Factors (top pick win %, top pick profit/loss):

Best Speed Fast Track (37%, +$32.40)
Trainer/Jockey 2-Year Win % (33%, +$25.00)
Trainer 6 Mo. Win % (32%, +$31.40)

Jockey/Trainer Trends from Betmix:

J: Eduardo Lopez // last week 12: 6-0-2 (50%, $3.79 ROI) // topped by $56 upsetter // 2-3 with Jamie Ness
J: Denis Araujo // last week 13: 4-0-2 (31%, $2.59 ROI) // wins at $8, $11, $17, $30 // 2-4 with Hamilton Smith
J: Grant Whitacre // last week 5: 2-1-1 (40%, $2.40 ROI) // 2-2 dirt routes, including $18 winner
T: Brittany Russell // last week 7: 4-0-1 (57%, $3.01 ROI) // $3, $7, $8, $23 winners // 8-15 over last 2 weeks
T: Rodolfo Sanchez-Salomon // last week 6: 3-0-0 (50%, $4.47 ROI) // wins at $9, $15, $29 // 2-2 with Luis Batista
T: Dale Capuano // last week 4: 3-0-1 (75%, $2.05 ROI) // wins at $4, $5, $6 // 2-2 with Jorge Ruiz
** ROI reflects return on $1 win bet**

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 06:06 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4

#8 Lightning Round	Worth a bit of a price look in a bad race, as she's getting down in class to this basement level for the first time and cuts back with some fading route pace running lines. Maybe.
#3 Charliv	She's another getting down to this level for the first time, and she has a couple of running lines that would probably handle these if she can transfer it to the new footing.
#5 Broken Love	She's getting short on excuses after nine starts, but her best stuff keeps her in the mix at what will probably be an underlaid price on the board.
Race Summary	Lightning Round ran the best race of her life last out on the turf at Penn, and she might be just quick enough to keep these sprint players in her sights.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#2 Leonard's Legacy	He has to turn the tables on the other listed two, but he has been moving in the right direction since getting Lasix and might offer a decent price to see if he can fend off the challengers today.
#8 Commodore Barry	He's one of the clear ones to beat, but this is the 18th career start, and it's not like he's going to offer a big number to find out if today is his day. Perfect, first-over trip.
#6 McQueen's Bullitt	Tactical speed split the top pair when they met last time out, but I wonder if his best local game might be going long. He's another likely underlay here with a big claim on top.
Race Summary	Leonard's Legacy faded behind a couple of these last out, but there aren't any intimidating new players here, and he's not out of the question with another step forward.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#5 Village Queen	Tactical speed proved she could hang with this kind last out when stepping up off the claim, and she's a major player if she can hold that kind of form while getting back around two turns. Something like the 3/1 ML price would appeal.
#4 Princess Javoncia	She didn't miss by much when facing four others last out, but she has given away ground in the final call of every route race on the page, so she's potentially vulnerable with these at too short a price.
#1 Spin Class	Think it might be worth trying to get this filly in the frame at a price for a barn that has struggled all meet. She's protected on the hike with good form from a couple of wins with cheaper. Might get the right trip from the fence.
Race Summary	Village Queen stretches back around two turns where she rolled a cheaper group two starts back, and she classed up well with this kind last out. I'll try to get Spin Class in the picture at a price with the logical players.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 06:08 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #9

#8 TECHTOPIA HANOVER	Right set-up, right price in wide open race.
#2 SEE YOU TUESDAY	Burned money at 'Ocean' but ran second in 3 of last 4.
#6 TRENTE DEO	Also benefits from lively pace flow and class drop for top connections.
Race Summary	Techtopia Hanover, nearing $100,000 in earnings, exits a fast race won by the 1-to-5 favorite. He starts outside but should get plenty of pace to rally into, with the four inside runners vying for forward position. He's worth a longshot stab at a good price. Play a2-6-8 exacta box.

Yonkers - Race #3

#4 A CRAFTY LADY	Sealed 28th victory in style two back, no threat from post 8 in follow-up.
#2 DIBABA N	Took serious money and broke stride, takes another class drop tonight.
#6 E R HILARY	Steady form, steady check-getter, adds value to gimmick wagers.
Race Summary	A Crafty Lady held safe for a wire-to-wire victory at a comparable level two starts ago, pacing the back half in :55.1 at Pocono Downs. She didn't threaten from post 8 in a well-bet follow up try against better, but she can rebound in here. Bet on her to win and place.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #5

#7 CUTTING CLASS	Tactical speed comes in handy from post 7, likes to win, seeks repeat at this level.
#8 DENMARK SEELSTER	Trouble at start proved costly, missed in photo finish two back.
#2 GAMBLING PRINCE	Rallied from far back in last three starts but didn't win, starts closer inside.
Race Summary	Cutting Class slowed it down in the third quarter en route to a 21-1 front-end upset last week, but it looks like he can control the pace again and enhance a 5-17 lifetime record. Play a 2-7-8 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 06:09 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Remington Park - Race #2

#1 Gurl You Fine	Ran an even fourth in his first off the claim by Flores and turns back to five furlongs; can save ground and should have something for the finish.
#2 Dont Float the Ice	On the board in five straight and most recently lost by a nose; have been odds on in three of her last five and won one during that period. Very rapid and the one to catch.
#4 Factual	Just missed at Louisiana Downs and has been sharp on the turf; late threat.
Race Summary	Gurl You Fine has enough speed to save an inside spot and can benefit from turning back in distance; one to hold off.

Remington Park - Race #3

#2 Franklyenergized	Was up in time last out at Albuquerque and was claimed by Green; can be in the mix throughout as has a great chance vs. Oklahoma-breds.
#4 On the Bridge	Won by a head last out here and shows a lot of late energy on occasion; big player here.
#1 Starward	Was second at Fair Meadows and at a price could be best of the rest.
Race Summary	Franklyenergized ran well in New Mexico and looks like a big player as he gets restricted company.

Remington Park - Race #5

#10 Take Charge Patti	Ran an even fourth last out and drops to a maiden-claiming price for the first time in three races; faces a field she should beat.
#1 Dial Dish	Lost by a length at a lower price last out and can get a good trip in her second turf attempt.
#4 Praline Prall	Was third in a three-photo photo last out and two of her last three have been much better than her other starts.
Race Summary	Take Charge Patti has the speed to overcome the outside post and has the class to prevail in this spot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 06:09 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Seamus Power vs Carlos Ortiz
Sport/League: GLF

Date/Time: September 30, 2021 8AM EDT
Play: Seamus Power (-105)
Sanderson Farms Championship
Tournament Matchup
If you look at season stats from last year, there is nothing too much that jumps off the page for Seamus Power, but that is because last year was the tale of two halves for Power. He only played three tournaments in the fall and in his first six starts to the PGA Tour season, he missed the cut in five of those. But once May rolled around and he started playing regularly, he was fantastic and actually ranks #2 in this field in Strokes Gained during that time frame behind only Sam Burns who is the tournament favorite at 18-1, while Power is well down the list at 50-1.
Power has made 11 straight cuts including a run of six straight Top 20's, four of those Top 10's and capping it off with his first PGA Tour win at the Barbasol Championship.
Ortiz had a good run of form from November to February last year including a win in Houston, but since the calendar turned to March, he has finished inside the Top 20 just one time in 16 events with five MC's. He ended the season with his best finish a T36 over his last seven starts.
Ortiz ranks outside the Top 100 in SG Approach and SG putting which is not a good combination while finishing #65 Total SG. Power ended the season #28 in Total SG and has a fantastic short game where he ranked #5 last year along with ranking #38 in SG Approach.
TAKE SEAMUS POWER
Line Parameter: 2% to -130

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 06:10 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Taylor Pendrith vs Scott Stallings

Sport/League: GLF

Date/Time: September 30, 2021 1PM EDT
Play: Scott Stallings (+125)
Sanderson Farms Championship
Tournament Matchup
Pendrith is all the rage off the tee, hitting bombs as long as DeChambeau, the only problem is the rest of his game is no where near as good. Only 11 players in this field have had worse SG Approach numbers than Pendrith over the last 3 months as he is averaging -0.93 per round. His #1 ranking in SG Off the Tee does no good if you can't follow that up hitting greens.
Stallings finished T6 at the Fortinet Championship two weeks ago in his last start and also finished T6 here last year, part of his five for six cuts made results at the Sanderson Farms. Stallings has gained strokes both Off the Tee and Approach the last three months and overall I think he will have more birdie chances over the week, it will just come down to if he can make them.
TAKE SCOTT STALLINGS
Line Parameter: 1% to +100

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 06:10 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Rapid Vienna at West Ham

Sport/League: UEFA

Date/Time: September 30, 2021 3PM EDT
Play: West Ham -1.5 (-125)
UEFA Europa League
West Ham is one of the teams I have circled to make it pretty far in this competition. They have shown so far in Premier League play that they are more than deserving of their Top 6 finish last year and this is the type of team that is dangerous in this competition. They aren't a big name squad that is disappointed to be here, rather than are a mid table team that played very well last year which has carried over to this season.
The Hammers don't have a lot of experience in European competitions like the Champions or Europa Leagues and their players are definitely eager to play in these games and play well. Often times you see Premier League sides playing their B squads in this group stage games against weaker league teams but that is unlikely to be the case here for West Ham as they want to win and their guys want to their chance to play in a European competition.
West Ham won their first match 2-0 on the road at a tough Dinamo Zagreb side while Rapid Vienna lost 0-1 at home against Belgium side Genk, generating just 0.62 xG in the game. They will find it much tougher to get anything going in London against the best team in the group.
TAKE WEST HAM -1.5
Line Parameter: 2% to -1.75, pay up to -140 to get -1.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 08:22 AM

Free Winners for Thursday, September 30th 2021 from THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
CHARLES TOWN
RACE #7
TIME: 9:49 PM EST
PICK: BET #2 Opeongo 2/1 odds to win @ Bovada

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 02:58 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Laurel Park

Laurel Park - Race 7	EXACTA, TRIFECTA &DAILY DOUBLE (RACES 7-8) / 10 cent SUPERFECTA 50 cent PICK 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $1.00 SUPER HIGH 5
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 74 • Purse: $46,000 • Post: 3:34P
(PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. KYMMIES CHARDONNAY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * KYMMIES CHARDONNAY: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has th e highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHE IS WISKY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	KYMMIES CHARDONNAY	5/2	5/2
3	SHE IS WISKY	9/2	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	KYMMIES CHARDONNAY	4	5/2	Front-runner	0	0	94.8	65.4	61.9
2	PREPAREFORTAKEOFF	2	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	64	60	39.9	55.2	49.7
3	SHE IS WISKY	3	9/2	Trailer	74	69	73.0	65.4	61.9
6	TOWSER	6	7/2	Trailer	0	0	0.0	38.9	31.9
1	SAPPHIRE BEAUTY	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	9.5	36.0	26.5

Unknown Running Style: DATE NIGHT KISSES (20/1) [Jockey: Rosales Victor - Trainer: Lockard Donna B], ALL IN JEST (9/2) [Jockey: Boyce Forest - Trainer: McGaughey III C R], DERWIN'S STARLET (12/1) [Jockey: Gomez Kevin - Trainer: Keefe Timothy L], JACK

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 02:59 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 1	Daily Double 1-2
Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 64 • Purse: $15,200 • Post: 2:45P
FOR NATIVE FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 30 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * PRINCESITA L: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TEMPORERA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GIAH 'S SPIRIT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	PRINCESITA L	2/1	7/2
1	TEMPORERA	2/5	7/2
4	GIAH'S SPIRIT	3/1	9/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	PRINCESITA L	3	2/1	Front-runner	62	57	72.1	38.4	33.9
2	PRETTY AND PROUD	2	10/1	Front-runner	60	47	56.9	19.9	11.9
1	TEMPORERA	1	2/5	Stalker	65	58	70.2	36.0	34.0
4	GIAH'S SPIRIT	4	3/1	Stalker	62	58	60.7	43.5	38.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 02:59 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #4 - Post: 6:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#6 RUNAWAY PHYLLIS (ML=8/1)
#3 CHARLIV (ML=9/5)

RUNAWAY PHYLLIS - Jock jumped on this filly's back for the first time on September 6th. Should 'know' the horse even better in this race. CHARLIV - This filly is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. This filly usually does her best running late. Look for her far back early in the race and finishing best of all on the tiring speed horses. Ran last race out against a tougher field at Laurel. The move down the ladder based on class rating points should suit her well. That 56 fig this filly recorded in her last race tells me she's a main player today. Has a decent chance to break maiden switching to the main track in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BROKEN LOVE (ML=2/1), #7 KATIE'S LAST DANCE (ML=5/1),

BROKEN LOVE - Hasn't been getting close at all of late. KATIE'S LAST DANCE - Tough to take this less than sharp equine at the price after the result (eighth) in the last affair. Registered a common speed rating in the last race in a $7,500 Maiden Claiming race on September 21st. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 RUNAWAY PHYLLIS on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 03:00 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $54000 Class Rating: 91

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 TAYET 5/2
# 6 FORGOT PASSWORD 6/1
# 5 RUN WITH GRACE 7/2

TAYET is the most favorable wager in this race. She must be given a shot given the solid speed numbers. Lately Kenneally has provided wagerers with a competitive winning percentage with horses travelling in dirt route races. With Beschizza controlling the reins on her, this filly will almost certainly be able to break out sharply for this race. FORGOT PASSWORD - Her 72 average has this filly with among the most favorable Equibase Speed Figures in this race. Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. RUN WITH GRACE - Ran a very solid last race. Sound average speed figures in dirt route races make this equine a key contender.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-30-2021, 03:01 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $19500 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 CATCHEY RHYTHM 4/1
# 1 CORONADO CREEK 8/1
# 3 ASHWINS VALENTINE 6/1

CATCHEY RHYTHM looks to be a very good contender. Has respectable Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. He has recorded formidable figures under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group of horses. Has competitive Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this race. CORONADO CREEK - Could best this group of horses in this race based on the speed figure - 67 - of his last race. ASHWINS VALENTINE - Will probably be one of the early speedsters of the bunch going into the midpoint of the race. The tandem of Macias/Raper has one of the most favorable ROI percentages in this group.

Thursday 9/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 9/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment