Thursday 9/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:53pm - Maiden Special - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $29,700 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#6 HELLO CARLO (ML=3/1)
#2 A P ROCK (ML=12/1)


HELLO CARLO - According to well-known handicapping veterans, the stalking-type of fine animal is one of the most consistent bets in racing. This gelding is in fine form, having run a nice race on September 10th, finishing second. The last figure of 65 is the highest last race speed rating in the field. Ranks at the top in earnings per race entered. A dominant effort right here can increase the lifetime earnings. A P ROCK - Last raced at Gulfstream Park in a race with an Equibase class figure of 74. Dropping a significant amount in class figure this time around puts him in a solid position in this race. Based on this colt's recent efforts, he should benefit from this race's shorter distance. You have to always check out this type of horse with a ton of early speed with an inside draw in a sprint on a bullring.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LOOKATLITTLEFERRIS (ML=9/5), #5 RUNNING ROY (ML=5/2), #3 ARE YOU HAPPY (ML=7/2),

LOOKATLITTLEFERRIS - This favorite ran on August 8th and hasn't had a drill since. In any race of 4 1/2 furlongs, I like to support a contender that has been looking good in sprint contests recently. RUNNING ROY - Improbable that this animal will finish better than he did last time out of the box when placing third. ARE YOU HAPPY - Just cannot wager on this mount. Didn't show me anything positive last race out or on August 25th.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 HELLO CARLO to win at post-time odds of 6/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Laurel Park

09/30/21, LRL, Race 9, 4.39 ET
09/30/21,LRL,9,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:40:02 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $32,000. (PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING $32,000-$25,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since July 30 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $32,000, if for $25,000, allowed 4 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $20,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race on the Turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 52 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Fox Force Five	15/1	Carrasco V R	Cibelli Jane	FEC	43	25.58	2.39/$1
098.1826	9	Amplio Esquema	6/1	Lynch F	Milosevic Milan	J	59	27.12	2.05/$1
096.2719	1	Wonder City	8/1	Ruiz J	Lynch Cathal A.	TSL	59	27.12	2.05/$1
095.7112	2	Perfume River	6/1	Karamanos H	Walters Henry		59	27.12	2.05/$1
095.2806	10	Along the Way	12/1	Sanchez M J	McBurney Patrick B.		59	27.12	2.05/$1
094.6984	5	Sally's Mustang	5/2	Marquez C	Reid Mark J.		59	27.12	2.05/$1
093.8589	4	Chelsea Wall	20/1	Gomez K	Albert Linda L.	W	59	27.12	2.05/$1
091.9503	7	Smart Entry	30/1	Trotman K	Pickett Crystal G.		59	27.12	2.05/$1
089.7872	6	Indian Nichols	4/1	Suarez A	Rubley Kelly		59	27.12	2.05/$1
087.3384	8	Rooney	5/1	Bisono J	Chudzik Keith		59	27.12	2.05/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 20.90, ROI 1.04/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.8174
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Is Not Same Track As Today -with-
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Race Purse Not Greater Than $50K
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Sally's Mustang	5/2	Marquez C	Reid Mark J.	T	794	31.36	0.85/$1
099.1791	9	Amplio Esquema	6/1	Lynch F	Milosevic Milan	J	794	31.36	0.85/$1
098.3718	2	Perfume River	6/1	Karamanos H	Walters Henry	S	794	31.36	0.85/$1
098.0380	1	Wonder City	8/1	Ruiz J	Lynch Cathal A.	L	794	31.36	0.85/$1
097.7657	8	Rooney	5/1	Bisono J	Chudzik Keith		794	31.36	0.85/$1
097.7122	10	Along the Way	12/1	Sanchez M J	McBurney Patrick B.		794	31.36	0.85/$1
097.2000	6	Indian Nichols	4/1	Suarez A	Rubley Kelly		794	31.36	0.85/$1
097.1026	3	Fox Force Five	15/1	Carrasco V R	Cibelli Jane	FEC	33	48.48	1.35/$1
095.5948	7	Smart Entry	30/1	Trotman K	Pickett Crystal G.		794	31.36	0.85/$1
094.7877	4	Chelsea Wall	20/1	Gomez K	Albert Linda L.	W	794	31.36	0.85/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 36.87, ROI 0.90/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.8209
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Default Category Stats

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Laurel Park

09/30/21, LRL, Race 9, 4.39 ET
09/30/21,LRL,9,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:40:02 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $32,000. (PLUS UP TO 15% MBF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING $32,000-$25,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since July 30 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $32,000, if for $25,000, allowed 4 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $20,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race on the Turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 52 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Fox Force Five	15/1	Carrasco V R	Cibelli Jane	FEC	43	25.58	2.39/$1
098.1826	9	Amplio Esquema	6/1	Lynch F	Milosevic Milan	J	59	27.12	2.05/$1
096.2719	1	Wonder City	8/1	Ruiz J	Lynch Cathal A.	TSL	59	27.12	2.05/$1
095.7112	2	Perfume River	6/1	Karamanos H	Walters Henry		59	27.12	2.05/$1
095.2806	10	Along the Way	12/1	Sanchez M J	McBurney Patrick B.		59	27.12	2.05/$1
094.6984	5	Sally's Mustang	5/2	Marquez C	Reid Mark J.		59	27.12	2.05/$1
093.8589	4	Chelsea Wall	20/1	Gomez K	Albert Linda L.	W	59	27.12	2.05/$1
091.9503	7	Smart Entry	30/1	Trotman K	Pickett Crystal G.		59	27.12	2.05/$1
089.7872	6	Indian Nichols	4/1	Suarez A	Rubley Kelly		59	27.12	2.05/$1
087.3384	8	Rooney	5/1	Bisono J	Chudzik Keith		59	27.12	2.05/$1

Top rated horse With "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 20.90, ROI 1.04/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -1.8174
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Is Not Same Track As Today -with-
[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Race Purse Not Greater Than $50K
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Sally's Mustang	5/2	Marquez C	Reid Mark J.	T	794	31.36	0.85/$1
099.1791	9	Amplio Esquema	6/1	Lynch F	Milosevic Milan	J	794	31.36	0.85/$1
098.3718	2	Perfume River	6/1	Karamanos H	Walters Henry	S	794	31.36	0.85/$1
098.0380	1	Wonder City	8/1	Ruiz J	Lynch Cathal A.	L	794	31.36	0.85/$1
097.7657	8	Rooney	5/1	Bisono J	Chudzik Keith		794	31.36	0.85/$1
097.7122	10	Along the Way	12/1	Sanchez M J	McBurney Patrick B.		794	31.36	0.85/$1
097.2000	6	Indian Nichols	4/1	Suarez A	Rubley Kelly		794	31.36	0.85/$1
097.1026	3	Fox Force Five	15/1	Carrasco V R	Cibelli Jane	FEC	33	48.48	1.35/$1
095.5948	7	Smart Entry	30/1	Trotman K	Pickett Crystal G.		794	31.36	0.85/$1
094.7877	4	Chelsea Wall	20/1	Gomez K	Albert Linda L.	W	794	31.36	0.85/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 36.87, ROI 0.90/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -0.8209
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Default Category Stats

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Dog	MLB	NEW YORK YANKEES +120	1	0	+110
Silvas Sports		No pick yet	2	1	+100
Brand X Sports	MLB	TORONTO BLUE JAYS ‑120	2	1	+90
Tommy King Wins	NFL	JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +8	2	1	+90
Ace / Sleeper Selections	NFL	JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7.5	1	1	-20
Mikey Sports	WNBA	PHOENIX MERCURY +6.5	0	1	-100
Insider Sports Report		No pick yet	0	1	-110
R and R Totals	MLB	CHICAGO CUBS/PITTSBURGH PIRATES o8.5	1	2	-120
Rocketman Sports	MLB	CLEVELAND INDIANS ‑145	0	1	-155
Pure Lock		No pick yet	1	2	-175
The Money Team Wins Sports		No pick yet	0	3	-305
Joe Wiz	MLB	PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES/ATLANTA BRAVES u8.5	0	3	-330

[Bankroll19]

PickersMx

30 Dimes Free Pick MLB

https://shoutout.wix.com/so/20NmpVlKM?languageTag=en

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander

Sep 30 '21, 7:05 PM in 24m
MLB | Red Sox vs Orioles
Play on: Red Sox -1½ -143 at pinnacle

1* MLB - Red Sox/Orioles FREE PICK on Red Sox -1.5, -143
Thursday's Free MLB Pick is on the Boston Red Sox on the -1.5 run line at -143 juice. Red Sox are on the road at Baltimore and fresh off a 6-0 win on Wednesday. Not only does this game mean everything to Boston and nothing to the Orioles, the Red Sox have a really nice edge on the mound here with them sending out Nick Pivetta against Baltimore's Alexander Wells. Pivetta has really thrown it well down the stretch and has a 2.51 ERA and 0.977 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Wells has made 7 starts and has a 8.13 ERA and 1.677 WHIP. He just faced Boston two starts ago and gave up 5 runs in 5 innings. Bet the Red Sox -1.5, -143!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Sep 30 '21, 7:07 PM in 26m
MLB | Yankees vs Blue Jays
Play on: Blue Jays -140 at William Hill

The strikeouts have always been there for Robbie Ray. But never the low ERA and consistency. That's changed this season. Ray is 13-6 with a 2.68 ERA. Oh, yes, he also has 244 strikeouts in 188 innings and probably is going to be your American League Cy Young Award winner. I like Ray at this price to knock off the Yankees, whose seven-game win streak ended in discouraging fashion against the Blue Jays Wednesday night. The Blue Jays beat Gerrit Cole, 6-5. It was Toronto's fifth win in its last six games versus the Yankees. Corey Kluber gets the start for New York. He's 5-3 with a 3.82 ERA as he gets back into shape following a lengthy injury layoff. This is his sixth start since May 25. Only once has he gone more than five innings since his return. The Blue Jays could have the best offense in baseball ranking in the top three in homers, runs and batting average. The Yankees rank a below average 18th in runs and 19th in batting average.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Sep 30 '21, 7:10 PM in 29m
MLB | MIA vs NYM
Play on: UNDER 7½ -100

Dave's Thursday Free Play:
1* on Marlins/Mets UNDER 7.5
The Key: Two struggling offenses in the Marlins and Mets square off in Game 4 of this series tonight. The first 3 games in this series have all seen 7 or fewer combined runs. The Marlins are scoring 2.1 RPG in their last 8 games, while the Mets are scoring just 2.9 RPG in their last 11 games. The Mets have scored 5 runs or fewer in 12 consecutive games. The Marlins have scored 5 runs or fewer in 8 straight. Rich Hill has yielded just one earned run in 11 innings in his last 2 starts against the Marlins. Take the UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Sep 30 '21, 7:10 PM in 29m
MLB | Marlins vs Mets
Play on: Mets -175 at Mirage

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Mets -175

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Sep 30 '21, 7:10 PM in 29m
MLB | Rays vs Astros
Play on: Astros -148 at Caesars

My free play is on the Hou Astros at 7:10 ET.The Tampa Bay Rays beat the host Houston Astros 7-0 last night to clinch the best record in the AL (for the second consecutive season) and notch their 98th victory (the previous franchise high was 96 wins in 2019). Incredibly, Tampa Bay has a lower payroll than all but FOUR other teams in MLB. As for Houston, it could have clinched the AL West with a win. However, the Astros lost for the FIFTH time in their last six games. Houston owns one of the most prolific offenses in baseball but has scored only 12 runs in its last six games. That said, the team's "magic number" is ONE, to clinch the division title.
Collin McHugh (6-1, 1.60 ERA), who was 32-17 for Houston back in the 2015 and 2016 seasons, has made 35 appearances for the Rays this season (his first with Tampa), including only six starts. However, Ryan Yarbrough (9-6, 5.09 ERA) is expected to follow McHugh and get the bulk of the work. Yarbrough made seven consecutive starts between June 27 and Aug 6 but has gone 3-2 with a 6.32 ERA over his last seven appearances (four starts). The breakdown on the season reveals that he is 5-5 with a 5.46 ERA over 21 starts and 4-1 with a 3.78 ERA in eight relief appearances.
Lance McCullers Jr. (12-5, 3.17 ERA) will start the rubber match for the Astros. McCullers allowed three runs on two hits and four walks with five strikeouts over six innings in a 3-2 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Sep 23, his first defeat after three consecutive winning decisions. He had gone 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 35.2 innings in the six starts prior to his loss against the Angels (Astros were 4-2). He is 2-2 with a 2.77 ERA over four career starts against the Rays, including seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts while matched up against Yarbrough back on April 30. Yarbrough is 0-2 with a 4.42 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Astros. He allowed five runs on nine hits and one walk with five strikeouts over six innings in that 9-2 home loss to Houston on April 30.
Tampa Bay celebrated on Wednesday and it's Houston's turn on Thursday
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Sep 30 '21, 7:10 PM in 29m
MLB | Rays vs Astros
Play on: Astros -148 at Caesars

1* Free Play on Astros -148

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer

Sep 30 '21, 7:30 PM in 49m
NCAA-F | Virginia vs Miami-FL
Play on: Virginia +4 -109 at linepros

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR THURSDAY, 9/30:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Thursday was on the Virginia Cavaliers plus the points versus Miami (FL) Hurricanes. Virginia (2-2) looks to pick themselves up off the mat after getting upset at home to Wake Forest by a 37-17 score as a 3.5-point favorite last Friday. The Cavaliers have rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Virginia is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games in September. Miami (2-2) comes off a 69-0 victory against Central Connecticut State last Saturday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home. The Hurricanes have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games when favored. Take Virginia plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Sep 30 '21, 7:30 PM in 49m
NCAA-F | Virginia vs Miami-FL
Play on: UNDER 62½ -110

1* Free Pick on Virginia/Miami-FL under 62½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Sep 30 '21, 7:30 PM in 49m
NCAA-F | Virginia vs Miami-FL
Play on: UNDER 62½ -110

FREE PLAY on Virginia/Miami-FL under 62½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

Sep 30 '21, 8:10 PM in 1h
MLB | Indians vs Royals
Play on: Indians -140 at Caesars

1 Dimer on Indians -140