Sunday 10/10/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Rosecroft Raceway Pick 4 Analysis

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October 10, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
Rosecroft Raceway has 13 races set to roll with the first post coming at 7:15 EST. The 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 9, and that sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

2-Spinout (5/2)-Finished 2nd in last after running into a buzz saw winner who blitzed the field from post 9. Probably will be on top or in the pocket after the 1st turn and should be tighter in the 2nd start since 7-14.
3-Manattack (4-1)-This 7-year-old raced well at this class and was just nipped in its 1st race since 8-4. Will need another big effort to win and has the gate speed to get the jump on others.
5-Lil Johnny (3-1)-Veteran knows how to win, (7-23) in 2021, and probably needed last after being off almost a month. Fits with this crew and looking for a big try. Foster takes the lines and that's a positive driver change.

Race 10

4-Rocktavius (7/2)-Fired hot off the bench, wired the field and now steps-up. This 8-year-old has won 26% of his starts at RcR and the Roberts barn is batting 25% winners over the last 30 days. Roberts steers #5 but Thompson can get the job done.
5-Starship (3-1)-This is the other Roberts entry and comes off an even effort versus straight Open company. This 4-year-old son of Captaintreacherous has 8 pictures in 21 RcR starts with a 150.2 mark this year and should be in the hunt.
7-Volley Ball Beach (4-1)-Comes off a big try at this class at long odds. Needs a sharp steer but was used a couple of times in last and might be able to roll late off cover tonight.

Race 11

5-I'm No Pansy (4-1)-Has won 5 of 18 at RcR, including last week in the 1st local start this season. Can be forwardly placed with this post draw and best to respect chances for a repeat.
8-Mittnite Delight (3-1)-Foster has enough gate speed to work with to claim a close-up seat. Comes off a sharp effort at this class and the post makes the price.

Race 12

4-Diamond Cowboy (5/2)-Drew-off by over 7 lengths last week to beat 6 from this bunch and looks like a must use tonight.
5-Twomickeytrip (7/2)-Well traveled veteran makes its RcR debut and did tune-up with a couple of starts in Woodstock. Might be able to fall in right behind the one above and make the most of an efficient trip.

0.50 Pick 4

2,3,5/4,5,7/5,8/4,5
Total Bet=$18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Wagering Strategies - October 10, 2021

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October 10, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play


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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: A-
Single: 5-Comedic

Forecast: Comedic debuts following a string of good, solid workouts and catches what appears to be a below average field that should allow the daughter of Practical Joke to win at first asking in this abbreviated grass sprint. She brought $800,000 at the Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old in training sale in March after displaying superior speed and a smooth, athletic stride in a very impressive :10 seconds flat breeze, and while her recent workout times aren’t fast she really hasn’t been asked to show anything close to her best. Listed at 7/2 on the morning line, the S. Callaghan-trained 2-year-old will offer considerable value at that price in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:
5-Comedic (September 25, Santa Anita, 3f, :35.3hg). Grade B+-
Second of three in gate drill with Collusion Illusion (4f, :47.2hg) and Malibuena (4f, :48.3hg), taken in hand leaving the barrier and then always under cruise control, splits of :23.4 and :35.4 on our watches. Merely an educational move, looks like a high quality sort, for sure.
View Workout Video

9-Loma Vista (October 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B-
Okay gate drill inside Altruist (same time) and Otta Hand (4f, :48.2hg), light coaxing only and finishing with something left, splits of :24 flat, :36 flat, :48 flat and 1:01.2 on our watches. No world beater but has some run, seems fairly fit.
View Workout Video

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RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-It’s a Riddle; 6-Truly Fabulous

Forecast: Truly Fabulous drops a notch below her claim price to the bottom-level $10,000 league for the first time since being haltered in February, and this easier assignment should allow her to return to winning form. A restricted (nw-2) victory in a $20,000 seller three races back at Pleasanton charts quite well in this moderate affair, and with two easy works since raced and four career victories from 15 lifetime starts the J. Wong-trained filly looks fairly solid at 2-1 on the morning line. It’s a Riddle is worth including somewhere on your ticket as a back-up or a saver. In the frame in her last two starts and a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the R. Hess, Jr.-trained mare has the route-to-sprint angle that we like, and though slower on pure numbers she could be dangerous if our top pick fails to deliver her best effort.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Aligato; 5-Hail Freedom

Forecast: Aligato was given an easy run in his debut when being allowed to lag to the head of the lane and then finishing full of run in traffic without being knocked about in a similar turf sprint for older maidens at Del Mar in late August. With that bit of experience behind him and an extra three-sixteenths of a mile to work with, the son of Kitten’s Joy should be along in plenty of time for a barn that has solid stats with second-time starters. There’s plenty of value here at 7/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Hail Freedom has been displaying speed going long in recent starts but may appreciate this turn back in trip and could find himself as the main speed in a race that doesn’t project to have quick early fractions. The D. O’Neill-trained colt shows a bullet half mile workout in :46 3/5 late last month, so we’re expecting to see “let roll” tactics employed. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Aligato.

Notable Workouts:
5-Hail Freedom (October 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade:
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Spoiled Rotten (4f, :48.4h) and proved best late while always breezing and able to go considerably faster if permitted. Maintains his edge for O’Neill, will be interesting to see if he can improve backing up to a sprint.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Da Kine; 7-Heir; 8-Harbor Sky

Forecast: Da Kine returned off a 14-month layoff to run a winning race in defeat when tagged close home in a similar maiden $20,000 miler at Del Mar last month. If he can produce a forward move – or even run the same type of race – the R. Baltas-trained gelding should be the one to beat. Harbor Sky, a first-off-the-claim play for D. O’Neill (a solid 18% with this angle), finished a neck behind Da Kine in that same race and must be considered a contender right back, though the race-shape in that main track miler promoted his closing style and today, over a surface that plays to speed, may make his task more difficult. Heir, haltered for $20,000 two runs back and then a voided claim in his move recent outing, removes blinkers, gets a break in the weights with the switch to the seven-pound bug D. Herrera, and with just three career starts has more room to improve than most of the others. His numbers are gradually rising, and he’s always trained like a bit better gelding than a bottom-rung seller, so we’ll toss him in as well.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Warren’s Queen Bee; 7-Gritty Girl

ForecastMaiden state-bred juvenile fillies sprint five furlongs on turf in a field that offers two main contenders. Gritty Girl acted up before the start in her debut, flashed good speed to establish a clear lead to the turn, but then quickly backed up and was virtually eased through the lane. She’s returned to work extremely well for J. Mullins while giving the appearance of a filly with much speed and some quality, so we’ll give her a chance to make amends today and hope she has her mind on business. The daughter of Street Boss seems likely to enjoy this five furlong trip and the switch to grass, so we’ll make her a gamble at or near her morning line of 3-1. For protection, we’ll also include Warren’s Queen Bee on our ticket. Not particularly fast on speed figures but in the frame in both of her starts, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride should at least hit the board again today.

Notable Workouts:
7-Gritty Girl (September 29, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1h TT). Grade: A-
Absolutely breezing while tons best over Fast Draw Munnings (4f, :47.4h TT), plenty left late while finishing in hand. Stopped badly in debut but has to be miles better than that. Can bounce back next time.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B
Single: 5-V Bucks

Forecast: V Bucks takes a slight drop in class to the restricted (nw-2) $16,000 level after disappointing as the favorite when fourth in a $25,000 affair at Del Mar last month. Her speed figure dropped 15 points off her previous good effort, so she clearly ran down to the competition’s level, rather than vice-versa. The P. Miller-trained daughter of California Chrome broke her maiden by daylight over the Santa Anita main track in June, so we’re expecting her to bounce back with her best effort today. At 7/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Dicey Mo Chara; 3-Spirit Maker; 6-Tigershon

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this first-level allowance optional claimer over a mile on grass for older horses, with preference on top to Dicey Mo Chara. Victimized by a lack of pace and given too much to do when a willing but non-threatening second at this level last month at Del Mar, the English-bred gelding lands a good inside draw and should be able to secure a favorable pace pressing/stalking trip in an event that projects to have very soft early splits. The lightly-raced sophomore has plenty of room for improvement and is reunited with “win rider” T. Baze, so at 3-1 on the morning line the L. Powell-trained gelding deserves the edge on top. Spirit Maker found his best stride too late and actually galloped out far in front when fifth vs. similar in his comeback in mid-July at Del Mar. Unraced for more than two months since that outing, the J. Sadler-trained colt turned in a couple of flashy recent workouts to indicate he’s ready for a significant forward move, and if he’s not too far back early the son of Empire Maker colt should make his presence felt late. Tigerhon was no threat when given a race in his U. S. debut sprinting on turf at Del Mar in August, but with the addition of blinkers combined with the stretch out to two-turns the M. Glatt-trained colt seems sure to be forwardly placed, if not the controlling speed. He did win gate-to-wire at Newcastle in England last year, so front-running strategy seems logical.

Notable Workouts:
3-Spirit Maker (October 2, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: B+
Solo training track drill without any need of urging, splits of :23.2, :35 flat and :59.3, very light coaxing only. Has plenty of room for improvement based on this drill. Has all of his conditions.
View Workout Video

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RACE 8: Post: 4:43 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Augusta Melody; 4-Doincic

Forecast: After being forced into a hot opening quarter and half, Augusta Melody stayed on gamely to run a winning race with a career-top speed figure when missing by a neck and winding up well clear of the rest in a similar affair at Del Mar last month. Today, the devout pacesetter/presser should have an easier time of it on the lead in a race without much early speed. Three easy breezes in the interim should have him fresh and ready. Doncic is the one to fear most. A maiden $30,000 claiming winner by more than nine lengths at Del Mar while leaving his previous form far behind, the son of Cairo Prince is protected today in a sign of confidence by new trainer V. Cerin following a timely claim and based on numbers is a strong fit despite the class hike. He’ll likely settle into a stalking position outside ‘Melody and then try to engage him when the pressure is turned on at the head of the lane. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with Augusta Melody getting preference on top.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:16 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Taming the Tiger; 4-Gypsy Blu

Forecast: Gypsy Blue is a Santa Anita turf course specialist (four wins, four seconds three thirds in 13 starts) and will be hard to beat if she can reproduce anything close to her best effort in this first-level allowance optional claimer. She was claimed for $32,000 when fourth at Del Mar in mid-July and today returns for $20,000, so there has to be a question of condition, but the purse of $63,000 makes the class drop somewhat understandable. The K. Mulhall barn has good stats with a limited sample in this first-off-the-claim category and a recent main track drill (5f, :59 4/5) should have the daughter of Papa Clem fit enough. Let’s hope she has at least one good one left. Taming the Tiger looked good winning a similar race on dirt at Los Alamitos last month and will be dangerous if she can duplicate that performance on grass. This will be her first career start on the lawn but, as a daughter of Smiling Tiger, there’s no reason she won’t handle it. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Gypsy Blue.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 5 Ticket Sunday at Belmont

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October 10, 2021 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
Much of the Late Pick 5 Sunday at Belmont Park looks good – good enough to take a pop at it and move up from my usual weekly Pick 4 journey.

Three graded stakes races – the G3 Futurity Stakes (5th), the G2 Beldame Stakes (6th), and the G3 Knickerbocker Stakes – make up the heart of Belmont’s Late Pick 5, and I’m jumping in with a suggested ticket that totals $108.

Here’s the strategy for the day:


5th Race (2:43 p.m. ET, G3 Futurity S.)

SLIPSTREAM has taken a big step up in performance in his last two races and looks ready for this level of competition. He comes in off a front-running maiden score but likely will be forced to do this one from off the pace, which seems to be fine. He improved position in his first two races and is in with runners that are just quicker than he is. That probably plays in his favor as he will be set up for a solid run.

Also on the ticket: MIDNIGHT WORKER, CHI TOWN LADY, POPPY FLOWER.


6th Race (3:15 p.m. ET, G2 Beldame S.)

ZAAJEL moves up to older fillies and mares and returns to where she had her finest triumph. The Street Sense filly came into her own when she scored a big-time upset over Always Carina and Clairiere in the Grade 2 Mother Goose over this strip. She tried sprinters in the Grade 1 Text but never got involved and is back to a longer distance.

Also on the ticket: ROYAL FLAG.


7th Race (3:49 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)

HOBOKEN JACK ran evenly vs. open maiden special weight company at Monmouth, which is probably a tougher spot than $50,000 maiden-claiming New York-breds. A good sign is a switch to hot-riding Paco Lopez, and the move to restricted company should be enough. It’s not a gimme by any means, but he looks to have an edge.

Also on the ticket: RED ROCK BAY, KONG LOVES A FIGHT.


8th Race (4:21 p.m. ET, G3 Knickerbocker S.)

SACRED LIFE has consistently shown late interest in his races, and that will comes in handy going 1 1-8 miles here. He was fourth the only time he tried this distance when he ran fourth as the 9-5 favorite in a Grade 1 at Keeneland. He tuned up for this with a fast-closing second to Breaking the Rules, a combatant today but not a choice on this ticket. That race was a mile, and the French-bred gets a distance more conducive to his running. He’s one of two talented Chad Brown runners in here, the other being L’IMPERATOR.

Also on the ticket: FIELD PASS, L’IMPERATOR.


9th Race (4:52 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)

MY BOY COLTON got on the front end and ran a good second in his latest, and a repeat of that will probably get it done for his in this one. The pace will be quicker and he might not get to the lead, but the turn back to a mile should help him with some late pop. The Pioneer of the Nile colt looks ready for graduation from the maiden ranks.
Also on the ticket: DEFERRED TAXES (1-1A entry), BAIL OUT.


Belmont Park 50-cent Late Pick 5:

5) #2 Midnight Worker, #4 Slipstream, #5 Chi Town Lady, #8 Poppy Flower.
6) #3 Zaajel, #8 Royal Flag.
7) #1 Red Rock Bay, #2 Hoboken Jack, #7 Kong Loves a Fight.
8) #1 Field Pass, #3 Sacred Life, #4 L’Imperator.
9) #1 Deferred Taxes, #3 My Boy Colton, #8 Bail Out.

The ticket: 2-4-5-8 with 3-8 with 1-2-7 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-8 ($108).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Keeneland - Race #2

#8 Under One Sky	She showed some solid tactical pace when staying on well at 45/1 in the Kentucky Downs debut, and she might be able to sustain that move into the pace a bit better this time around with the debut under her belt.
#12 Mission Belle	She took a little bit of cash and didn't show much in the debut try, but she races for top connections and is worth another look while trying new footing -- not every horse likes the Kentucky Downs surface.
#3 Jazz Time Girl	She has run a couple of good ones to open her career, and she'll get around two turns for the first time with a decent midpack trip looming for her today.
Race Summary	Under One Sky was overlooked in the career debut, but she ran a good race that day and figures to get another great trip while tracking the pace with this group today. #7 Requestforproposal showed little at 3/5 when rained off in the debut but seems in the mix for Chad Brown as well.

Keeneland - Race #9

#4 Letruska	She's not going to be any kind of price, but she should be able to control the tempo in this spot while aiming for her fifth straight score. Game runner is the clear one to beat.
#1 Dunbar Road	She gave a thrill in the lane at 25/1 last time out but couldn't reel in the top choice, and she has run well here in a couple of tough races in the past. Logical exacta player.
#6 Crystal Ball	She has some positional pace to keep the top choice in her sights early on, but her ceiling seems just a bit light compared to what a few others in here are capable of, so she seems best used underneath.
Race Summary	Letruska is on a real tear right now, and she finds another field in which she should be able to dictate the tempo from the start. The local footing is the mildest of concerns, but she has carried her track with her while running through 16 wins from 21 starts.

Keeneland - Race #10

#13 Lucky Boss	He brings good form to this turf debut, and his sire tends to get runners who handle the footing just fine. Tactical speed should get a great trip and should be there if he handles the new surface.
#12 Tiz the Bomb	He's the one to beat while running out of the same barn as the top choice, and he just landed a stakes score at Kentucky Downs while trying the turf for the first time. Tough right back.
#5 Rocket One	He has shown some decent finishing ability in a couple of turf races, and there might be enough pace in here to give him a chance to rally on late. Worth including.
Race Summary	Lucky Boss and Tiz the Bomb race out of the same barn, but 'Boss will be a better number on the board while bringing form and a pedigree that suggest he can be competitive here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Belmont Park - Race #4

#1 Shady McGee	Is a good closer and was in good races at Saratoga; looks ready for the 1.5 miles.
#8 Abaan	Broke him maiden by 7.5 last out at Saratoga and we'll see how far his speed and take him.
#9 Cold Hard Cash	Lost photos against allowance company in his last two at Saratoga and will be challenged to get the distance.
Race Summary	Shady McGee has had a steady closing move running shorter distances and can be closer to lead here; should like the long run.

Belmont Park - Race #5

#4 Slipstream	Was a clear maiden winner last out at Belmont and can battle for this throughout.
#8 Poppy Flower	Stakes-placed filly capable of being close throughout; can be tough at this distance.
#5 Chi Town Lady	Unbeaten in two starts and has finished well at shorter distances; big player.
Race Summary	Slipstream was very sharp last time out and will engage the leaders; getting better and is ready for stakes company.

Belmont Park - Race #3

#6 Win With Pride	Was up with time at Saratoga last time out and is perfect for the 6.5 furlongs; gets a good pace set up here.
#5 First Homestead	Has taken four straight, including his latest at Saratoga; makes his first off the claim by Sciacca, has speed and can finish.
#7 Summer Bourbon	Was a clear winner in his last two and takes a slight step up; will be in the mix late.
Race Summary	Win With Pride has a good closing move and should be able to be a good trip from just off the pace.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Oct 10 '21, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Lions vs Vikings
Play on: Lions +9½ -110 at Caesars

Dave's Sunday Free Play:
1* on Detroit Lions +9.5
The Key: The Detroit Lions are 0-4 this year but have shown they will fight for your money. They nearly came back against the 49ers in Week 1, actually held a halftime lead against the Packers in Week 2, and in Week 3 it took a 66-yard field goal by the Ravens to beat them. Last week's 14-24 loss at Chicago was misleading. Detroit somehow made 4 trips inside the Chicago 20-yard line and came away with zero points. That should be impossible. I like the price we are getting on the Lions this week as nearly double-digit underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings. It's not like Vikings have shown us enough at 1-3 to warrant being this big of a favorite. Detroit is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 road games after scoring 17 points or fewer in 3 straight games. The Lions are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 road games off a loss by 10 points or more. The Vikings are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 against a team with a losing record. Take Detroit.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Oct 10 '21, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Dolphins vs Bucs
Play on: Dolphins +10 -108 at linepros

Play - Miami Dolphins (453).
Edges - Dolphins: 7-2 ATS as a dog of more than 7 points … Bucs: 0-9 ATS before a Thursday game, and 5-9 SUATS versus AFC East opponents ... With the Bucs coming off their big showdown win over Bill Belichick and the Patriots, and the Dolphins off a SU favorite loss to the Colts, we recommend a 1* play on Miami. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dennis Macklin

Oct 10 '21, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Eagles vs Panthers
Play on: Panthers -3 -108 at pinnacle

DMack's Free Play for Sunday, October 10, 2021 is on the Carolina Panthers
We're gonna give Carolina a mulligan after getting run out at Dallas, the second of a road back-to-backs. Prior, the Panthers were near perfect against similar competition as they'll see here vs. the Eagles. Philly is crumbling at the base, especially on defense where they've allowed 100+ point the last three weeks, back-to-back 40burgers the last two. Add to the mix that at this writing, the Eagles could be missing as many as four offensive linemen. Laying three is impossible to pass. Carolina by double-digits.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Vinciletti

Oct 10 '21, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Patriots vs Texans
Play on: Texans +8 -107 at pinnacle

Sunday card has the NFL Non Conference TOTAL of the YEAR and an NFL Executive Level TIER 1 Side headlining along with Divisional Round Game 2 Power System Plays and TOP 6* Sunday night Football. Comp play below.
The NFL Comp Play is o Houston plus the 8-9 points at 1:00 eastern. Much like our play on the Jets last week from a similar bounce back off a shutout system we will have to hold our nose here. Houston actually fits an 84% Dog system as well. The Texans have covered 6 of 8 after scoring 14 or less and 4 of 5 as a dog. New England has failed to cover 8 of 9 off a spread win and 4 of 5 as a road favorite. This is alot of points to lay with a rookie Qb on the road pitting a pair of 1-3 teams. The mostly likely scenario here is a close New England win with the Texans hanging around for a spread win. Play on Houston plus the points. On Sunday a Powerful card is up with the NFL Non Conference Total of the Year going early, then an Executive LEVEL TIER 1 side later on and a 6* Sunday night Football play. We also have more Divisional Round MLB Playoff System plays. Jump on and cash out. For the NFL Comp play. Take the Texans. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander

Oct 10 '21, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Titans vs Jaguars
Play on: Titans -4½ -105 at pinnacle

1* NFL - Titans/Jaguars FREE PICK on Titans -4.5
Sunday's Free NFL Pick is on the Tennessee Titans as a 4.5-point road favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I know this is a big public play, but I just can't pass up laying less than a touchdown against this Jaguars team. I just think this line is a bit of an overreaction to how bad Tennessee looked last week in a 24-27 road loss to the Jets and the Jags showing something in a 21-24 loss at Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football. It just looked like the Bengals were sleep walking for the 1st half and when they flipped the switch it was the total mismatch we thought it would be from the start. With home games against the Bills and Chiefs up next for Tennessee, this has to feel like a must win for them. Give me the Titans -4.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Higgs

Oct 10 '21, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Patriots vs Texans
Play on: Texans +9 -110 at Caesars

Taking the HOUSTON TEXANS as our FREE PICK here on NFL Sunday. Everyone just saw the Patriots nearly beat the mighty Tom Brady's on Sunday night. Maybe they should have won. I know everyone will be reminded about the Texans getting thrashed in Buffalo 40-0. The talking heads will be telling everyone how Belichick is 22-6 vs rookie QBs. And Mills has looked entirely the part of a deer in headlights rookie signal caller. I understand Houston is a bad team. But I after a game like that, 4 yards in the first half! - I think this team comes out with some pride here at home. Part of me wanted to grab the Under 39 here. I really think we see a lot of Ingram and Johnson out of the backfield and short stuff to Cooks to get some confidence in their young QB. New England is not built to run a team out of the building on the road. And yes, can the Patriots win this one by 10. Sure they can. But - Lost 17-16 to Miami at home. Lost 28-13 at home to New Orleans. Lost 19-17 to Tampa at home. They won 28-13 at the Jets. I'm grabbing an ugly dog in the TEXANS here on Sunday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Oct 10 '21, 1:00 PM in 2h
NFL | Dolphins vs Bucs
Play on: OVER 47½ -111

FREE PICK: Dolphins/Bucs OVER 47.5
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 453
I'll take the OVER 47.5 in Sunday's non-conference matchup between the Bucs and Dolphins. I would grab the points with Miami if I had to take a side, as I feel Tampa Bay might be a little overvalued in this spot. With that said, there's more value with the OVER 47.5.
Prior to last week's game against the Pats, the OVER had cashed in each of the Bucs first 3 games. They combined for 60 with a total of 52.5 in Week 1 against Dallas, 73 with a total of 51.5 in Week 2 vs the Falcons and 58 with a total of 55 in their Week 3 matchup with the Rams.
I just think you have to look at the New England result and put it aside. That was special circumstances where you had Brady playing his first game back in New England against his old team. Every regular-season game means something, but that one meant a lot more to both teams.
I think it puts Tampa Bay in a really flat spot and I think that's bad news for maybe the most overrated defense in the NFL. It's also a defense that has been hit hard with injuries, especially in the secondary. Corners Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis are both out, corner James Dean is questionable and so is stud strong safety Antoine Winfield. Veteran Jason Pierre-Paul is also questionable.
Miami might not look like the offense that can exploit the Bucs problems in the secondary, as they 30th in the league at just 173.8 passing yards/game. I just think the NFL can work in mysterious ways and with the big guys up front maybe not as locked in as they normally would be, we will see the Dolphins move the ball and put points on the board.
As for the Bucs offense, Brady is just one of those guys who never takes a game off. It's up in the air if Gronk will be back, but I don't think him not playing will be enough to keep this Pats offense from scoring 30+ points.
I see this being something like a 34-27 type of game, which is almost a full 14 points more than what we need to cash a winning ticket. This could be 28-20 and we still get there. Give me the OVER 47.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Black Widow

Oct 10 '21, 3:00 PM in 4h
WNBA | Sky vs Mercury
Play on: Sky +3½ -110 at Caesars

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Sky +3½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Oct 10 '21, 4:00 PM in 5h
Soccer | Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United
Play on: Minnesota United +125 at Caesars

1* Free Pick on Minnesota United +125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Oct 10 '21, 4:05 PM in 5h
NFL | Browns vs Chargers
Play on: Browns +2½ -110 at William Hill

Free Pick on Browns