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Hawthorne - Race #4 - Post: 4:34pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 84
Rating:
#1 GO YEOWOMEN (ML=6/1)
#9 WINDY CITY GIRL (ML=4/1)
#5 PRESENT OF HERO (ML=10/1)
GO YEOWOMEN - Granitz brings her right back. I advocate you stay with this live mare. WINDY CITY GIRL - The rider and trainer combination here have a high winning percent when they work together. Rivelli drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to think this horse has a darn good chance at this level. Although it's been awhile, this mare won at a higher class level and at today's distance. I think she could run back to that old form today. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a horse coming back off a strong effort within the last month. PRESENT OF HERO - The ROI when Felix and Perez team up is terrific. This mare is a gem of consistency, almost always in the money. This mare is in fine condition, having run a good race on September 9th, finishing first. If you review the PP's for this racer, you'll see she has recorded the top Equibase speed fig at the distance and surface. A repeat race right here and this horse has a superb chance to win.
Vulnerable Contenders: #7 LADY BREXIT (ML=7/2), #3 RISKY RISKY RISKY (ML=5/1), #6 BALLYBRACK LASS (ML=8/1),
LADY BREXIT - Finished sixth last time. Would have to get better to land in the top three in today's race. I don't normally play a chalk horse that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. RISKY RISKY RISKY - This vulnerable equine hasn't been near the winner at the finish of late. BALLYBRACK LASS - Doubtful that the speed figure she earned on September 10th will be enough in this event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #1 GO YEOWOMEN is going to be the play if we are getting 9/2 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,5,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [1,5,9] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [1,5,9] with [1,5,9] with [1,3,5,9,11] with [1,3,5,9,11] Total Cost: $36 Comment
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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park
10/10/21, BEL, Race 7, 3.49 ET
10/10/21,BEL,7,6F [Dirt] 1:07:03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $50,000. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. Weight, 119 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
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Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Top rated horse With "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 51.72, ROI 1.36/$1100.0000 2 Hoboken Jack 3/1 Lopez P Breen Kelly J. JSFEC 174 43.10 1.18/$1 096.1649 5 Empire Station 7/2 Cancel E Weaver George 30 63.33 1.87/$1 095.9311 6 El Veinticuatro 9/2 Franco M Rodriguez Rudy R. T 40 60.00 1.64/$1 095.4081 4 Phoebe's Frosty 8/1 Alvarado J Lawrence. II James L. W 30 63.33 1.87/$1 095.3464 8 Light Work 5/1 Lezcano J Breen Kelly J. 30 63.33 1.87/$1 095.0271 9 Just Jeremy 6/1 Diaz. Jr. H R Hogan Jr. William J L 30 63.33 1.87/$1 094.2483 7 Kong Loves a Fight 15/1 Davis D Noda Orlando 30 63.33 1.87/$1 093.7593 3 Bossmakinbossmoves 10/1 Carmouche K Schosberg Richard E. 30 63.33 1.87/$1 090.5298 1 Red Rock Bay 20/1 Luzzi M J Ferraro James W. 174 43.10 1.18/$1
Rating gap To 2nd horse -3.8351
[Category] Condition for 100.0000 Top Horse
[All Dirt] Last Race Distance Is Not Greater Than TodayComment
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Keeneland - Race #3 - Post: 2:04pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $43,000 Class Rating: 89
Rating:
#1 ALBERTA SUN (ML=4/1)
#2 SHASTALOO (ML=5/1)
#3 ASSERTIVE STYLE (ML=9/2)
ALBERTA SUN - A filly like this one, almost always in the money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. This thoroughbred could be tough in this race, especially since Arrieta rode in the last race and now should be better acquainted with this one. Stalking speed. My partners and I like this horse. Diodoro moves this horse here to Keeneland from Churchill Downs. Looking at the horse's recent PP lines, she has shown the ability to win at different racing venues. A racer coming back this soon after a strong race is a good sign. SHASTALOO - Diodoro has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to be wary of the longer priced half. This filly is in good physical condition. Finished third on Sep 17th. ASSERTIVE STYLE - This filly registered a strong rating of 90 in her last event. That speed rating should be good enough to score this time. PP lines show this pony with three improving Equibase speed figures. Morales should be on a live horse right here.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 R WORKING GIRL (ML=2/1), #8 SILVER CLOUD (ML=5/1), #4 DOCS SEVEN (ML=5/1),
R WORKING GIRL - I think this chalk horse needs this race under her belt to start getting back into shape. Could be tough for this horse to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put her on the likely underlays list. SILVER CLOUD - Finished second in her most recent race with a pedestrian speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. DOCS SEVEN - Never really did much at all last out on September 17th. Hard to bet on in today's event. Don't believe this entrant will make an impact in today's event. That last rating was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class figure.
STRAIGHT WAGERS: #1 ALBERTA SUN to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better EXACTA WAGERS: Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6 SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip Comment
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