Saturday 10/16/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 05:54 AM

Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: Texas Tech Red Raiders/Kansas Jayhawks under 66 1/2 (Saturday)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-14-2021, 05:55 AM

#1 Sports

Thursday's Free Play: Texas Tech Red Raiders - 16 1/2 (Saturday)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 07:10 AM

Race of the Week: Queen Elizabeth II Cup | Sat., Oct. 16, 2021

October 14, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
$500,000 GRADE 1 QUEEN ELIZABETH II CHALLENGE CUP AT KEENELAND

The Lead:
Keeneland's featured race during the second week of the Fall Meet will be Saturday's Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup for 3-year-old fillies. And, as the name suggests, there's plenty of international interest. A trio of imports from the United Kingdom will take on 7 domestic challengers in this 1-1/8 miles turf test. The QE2 goes as Race 8 on the card and will be the middle leg in the new Keeneland Turf Pick 3 wager, which Saturday matches Races 6, 8 & 10.

Field Depth:
EMPRESS JOSEPHINE is a Group 1 winner in Ireland and Group 1-placed in the US. LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE is a Grade 1 winner in Canada. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS is a Grade 2 winner stateside. SHANTISARA is a Grade 3 winner domestically and CLOUDY DAWN has won at the Group 3-level abroad. NICEST is Group 1-placed internationally and CLOSING REMARKS is Grade 1-placed in California. It's hard to argue that EMPRESS JOSEPHINE has not competed at the highest level in this field and has some class edge.

Pace:
Early speed has been very good in this race historically, and it certainly was advantageous last week to be near the lead on the Keeneland green. We'll see if the turf continues to play that way as Saturday gets closer. LADY SPEIGHTSPEARE should be the pace controller here, with the inside pair of BURNING AMBITION and TECHNICAL ANALYSIS pressing. The addition of blinkers may put EMPRESS JOSEPHINE closer to the pace as well. This looks like an honest, but not overwhelming, pace and pretty fair all around.

Our Eyes:
EMPRESS JOSEPHINE's third against elders in the Grade 1 First Lady last Saturday at Keeneland was an excellent effort and she simply ran out of ground in that mile. The additional furlong will help her if she maintains form on the quick turn-around. Aidan O'Brien pulled this exact same move in 2011 when he won with Forever. You got a 9-2 price that day a decade ago following a runner-up in the First Lady. You have to respect her chances in what is an easier field this week than last and she's the one to beat.

Trainer Chad Brown has won this race 3 times in recent years, including 2018 and 2019, and will have TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and SHANTISARA with prime chances. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS appears to have a bit more early speed than SHANTISARA and that could give her the edge from a good post-2 draw. The former won a pair of stakes this summer at Saratoga, the latter took Arlington's Pucker Up and Belmont's new Jockey Club Oaks Invitational. The 9-furlong trip might tilt to SHANTISARA and you get ace turf pilot Flavien Prat. Separating them on form is razor-thin.

Among the international challengers is NICEST for trainer Donnaca O'Brien, son of Aidan. NICEST is an American Pharoah who should handle the US lawns and is cut out to be a pure router on form. She was third in the Irish Oaks over 1-1/2 miles. The question will be if she has the turn of foot for the 9 furlongs over a shorter stretch run than overseas. French Group 3 winner CLOUDY DAWN rounds out the imports and stretches out in distance on the flip-side. Hot-riding Brian Hernandez Jr. takes the call in an interesting pairing.

Del Mar alumni have had success in this race, winning in 2010, '13, '15 and '19. CLOSING REMARKS and QUEEN GODDESS will try to turn the trick this year. CLOSING REMARKS hit the board in 6 straight stakes out west, including a runner-up in the Del Mar Oaks. She appears the stronger of that pair by a solid margin.

Virginia Oaks heroine FLIPPANT carries a 3-race win streak, while Indiana Grand Stakes heroine BURNING AMBITION has won 4 straight for trainer Brad Cox, off to a stellar stakes start to the 2021 Keeneland Fall Meet. Both will be tested for class while in peak form.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
Unless she regresses considerably, EMPRESS JOSEPHINE should be in the winning mix late over 1-1/8 miles.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
CLOSING REMARKS likely will be overlooked amongst the international and Chad Brown contingents. But the Del Mar-to-QE2 success here can't be overlooked at a price for the exotics.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 exacta part-wheel EMPRESS JOSEPHINE over TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and SHANTISARA.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 07:12 AM

AI Picks: National Stakes | Saturday, October 16, 2021

October 15, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
It’s another big Saturday of racing around the country, and to assist your handicapping, key stakes selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections.

You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. Full-card selections can be found in the 1/ST BET app. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with each runner.

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Belmont Park // Race 6 // 3:15 pm ET // Grade 3 Sands Point // 1-1/8 miles (turf)

#5 Higher Truth (2-1) // 30%W
#8 Our Flash Drive (12-1) // 17%W
#7 Fluffy Socks (7-2) // 14%W
#1 Third Draft (30-1) // 13%W

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Keeneland // Race 8 // 4:44 pm ET // Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes // 1-1/16 miles (turf)

#4 Empress Josephine (3-1) // 24%W
#7 Lady Speightspeare (8-1) // 13%W
#3 Shantisara (7-2) // 13%W
#1 Burning Ambition (6-1) // 13%W

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Santa Anita Park // Race 7 // 7:08 pm ET // California Distaff // 6-1/2 furlongs (turf)

#1 Warren’s Showtime (9-5) // 31%W
#5 Bella Vita (5-2) // 29%W
#3 Pulpit Rider (7-2) // 15%W
#6 Sedamar (9-2) // 11%W

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 07:13 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Pick 5 Analysis

October 16, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia
The main events at Woodbine Mohawk Park feature two-and three-year-olds competing in Ontario Sires Stakes-Gold Super Finals. The 0.20 Early Pick 5 starts the program. The sequence has a $100,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

3-Always A Hotshot (9/2)-Makes only the 4th start this year, so there have been issues. But drops after racing in 151.1 and this is soft spot if close to 100%.
5-Play Jet ray (5/2)-Has only 1 win in 19 starts in 2021 but comes off the best race in quite a while on 10-11. Returns quickly at the same class and will look for the upswing to continue.

Race 2

7-Prohibition Legal (4/5)-Winner of 7 in 8 starts looks to be a clean trip away from cashing the top check. This filly has been dominant and that shouldn't change tonight at a tiny price.

Race 3

7-Mischevious Rose (3-1)-Will be using a couple to try to take down the morning line choice #7 who has been the queen of this class. McClure will need to provide an efficient steer and hope for a bumpy journey by the chalk to take a picture.
8-Adare Castle (7/5)-Hasn't lost to this kind all year and it would be no surprise if that streak stays intact. My gut says there could be an upset but can't leave off the ticket.
10-Dabra Day (6-1)-Willing to take a swing because the price should be right, and my take is this filly is talented enough to beat the chalk. Does show some breaks but could leave fastest of all if stays flat. If she lands on top without using much gas it could be an interesting finish.

Race 4

1-Scarlett Hanover (5/2)-Finished a fast-closing 2nd after being off over 2 weeks and facing older. Gingras takes the lines and that won't hurt. This filly has been tough when facing classmates and should be a major player again.
3-Dabarndawgswatchin (3-1)-Has hit the board in 12 of 13 and missed last week after taking the long way around in the same race as the 2 mentioned here. That was probably a tune-up and would expect Jamieson to be closer to the lead throughout.
8-Voelz Delight (7/2)-Beaten chalk was far back early and the pace was slow, willing to toss that as a tune-up for the big money. There should be a lively pace so figures to be in the hunt at the wire.

Race 5

8-Fashion Frenzie (8/5)-Morning line chalk was caught by #9 on 10-4 after leading throughout and has a chance for revenge here. Roy will probably look to take the point and control the mile.
9-Logan Park (2-1)-Flew home with a 26.3 last quarter and that was the 1st time for Lasix. MacDonald should have the son of Archangel within striking range at the top of the lane. It's best to respect the chances of closing fastest of all.

0.20 Early Pick 5

3,5/7/7,8,10/1,3,8/8,9
Total Bet=$7.20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 07:14 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Wagering Strategies for Oct. 16, 2021

October 16, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Feathers; 4-Ivy League

Forecast: The Saturday opener is a nine furlong allowance optional claimer on grass restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Feathers, the 9/5 morning line favorite, earned by far her career top Beyer speed figure (88) when an excellent fourth (beaten less than three lengths) at 69-1 in the Del Mar Oaks-G1 in late August and anything close to that type of performance today in this much softer spot gets her back into the winner’s circle. The lightly-raced Irish-bred filly seems effective when held up early, though in race lacking in pace she might find herself close up throughout. The P. Miller-trained ex-claimer sports a solid, healthy recent work tab at San Luis Rey Downs so we’re not anticipating any regression. Ivy League, seventh in the same race Feathers exits, is another that should appreciate today’s easier assignment. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro shows good form over the local lawn, including a nice maiden win over at this trip last winter, and is a grinding type that projects to be comfortably placed on or near a modest early pace. These are the two we’ll be including in rolling exotic play with the edge on top to Feathers.

Notable Workouts:
4-Ivy League (October 10, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14.4h. Grade: B
Even but best outside Wicked (same time) while working from the furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole, some restraint to mid-stretch and then proving slightly best late while mildly coaxed, splits of :25.1, :37.1, 1:02 flat and 1:14.4, solid work for a filly that’s done all of her racing on grass. Has some improvement in her, especially if returned to the first-level allowance ranks.
View Workout Video

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Escape Route; 4-The Great One

Forecast: Escape Route had the misfortune of facing Flightline in a non-winners of two sprint at Del Mar last month and never had a chance, though to his credit he wound up a distant second (beaten nearly 13 lengths) while still earning a fairly decent speed figure despite the margin of defeat. The lightly-raced son of Hard Spun had won his previous two outings in good fashion with strong numbers so against this five-runner allowance optional field the M. Glatt-trained colt should have every chance to return to winning form. The Great One, nosed out in the Los Alamitos Futurity-G1 last December and then a 14 length maiden winner over the Santa Anita main track the following month, subsequently ran two dull races when overmatched and was given several months off. The D. O’Neill-trained colt finished a respectable fourth behind Medina Spirit in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar in late August upon his reappearance and today shortens to a sprint while facing considerably easier foes. This seven furlong trip should be ideal for his pacesetting/stalking style. We’ll give Escape Route a very slight edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:
4-The Great One (September 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, under heavy restraint throughout while pulling on the turn but finally settling late while traveling out to the seven furlong pole, splits of :24.1, :49.3, and 1:02.2. Obviously could have gone much faster if permitted. Exits a tough race and can do much better with a proper drop in class.
View Workout Video

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RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Savvy Gal; 4-Invincibella; 5-Nightlife

Forecast: Here’s a tough, contentious affair requiring a three-runner spread in rolling exotic play. Invincibella won a turf sprint at Del Mar at this level in mid-August and seeks a repeat score in this seven-runner $25,000 claimer for fillies and mares. Today’s extra furlong shouldn’t bother her in the least, so this two-time winner over the local lawn should once again be able to settle early and tag the leaders late. Nightlife, first off the claim for J. Mullins (powerful stats with this angle), has looked sharp in the a.m. in recent weeks and appears cranked up for a major effort. Freshened since July, the veteran daughter of Into Mischief projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip and have every chance from the head of the lane to the wire. Savvy Gal is worth including on your ticket somewhere as well. She’s a class-dropper with the route-to-sprint angle in her second start off a layoff, and with a prior win over the course and two strong recent five furlong workouts at San Luis Rey Downs she appears set to produce a significant forward move.

Notable Workouts:
5-Nightlife (October 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B
Nice and relaxed while on her own courage throughout in solo training track drill for new trainer J. Mullins, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36 flat. Freshened since July and appears perked up off the layoff. Dangerous on dirt or turf when she’s on her game.
View Workout Video

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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Established; 6-I Got No Munny

Forecast: I Got No Munny was well below his best form when third at 4/5 in a similar second-level allowance sprint at Del Mar in late August, but the M. Glatt-trained gelding draws the cozy outside post today and seems likely produce his best stuff over a main track that he clearly prefers (three wins in four starts). A bullet five furlong workout (:58 4/5) tells us he’s doing very well and on pure numbers he’s simply faster than these. For protection, we’ll also include Established on our rolling exotic ticket. A winner against lesser at this seven furlong trip last time out at Del Mar. the R. Baltas-trained gelding should be on or near the lead throughout in a race that projects to have soft early splits. He’ll need another forward move to worry our top pick but may have it in him.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Fearless Girl; 6-Rose’s Crystal; 9-Ultimate Hy

Forecast: Fearless Girl missed as the favorite when runner-up in her U.S. debut last month at Del Mar but actually ran quite well when finishing strongly after running into a roadblock entering the lane. A similar effort with good racing luck likely lands the P. D’Amato-trained Irish-bred filly in the winner’s circle. Ultimate Hy, a respectable third (beaten two lengths) in the same race our top pick exits, moved prematurely into a hot pace and then paid the price late, so with a properly-timed ride today the B. Heap-trained filly may be able to offer a serious threat. She’s a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and is lightly-raced with further improvement in her. Rose’s Crystal, twice a winner in her last three outings and with speed figures that are gradually rising, exits state-bred races and will tackle tougher open company today. This nine furlong trip should be well within her range, especially if sufficient early pace materializes to compliment her late-grinding style. At 8-1 on the morning line, she’s worth including on your ticket, at least as a back-up or a saver.

Notable Workouts:
3-Fearless Girl (October 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B-
Broke off a couple of lengths in front of Going Global (5f, 1:00h TT) in training track drill for P. D’Amato and was no match for her classy barn mate in the final stages while being ridden a bit in the final furlong while ‘Global was under cruise control, final half mile on our watches in :24.1 and :48.1. Decent work under the circumstances, looks fine, and should fire another good shot vs. allowance foes next time out.
View Workout Video

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RACE 6: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: C
Use: 2-Roses R Blue; 3-So Very Smart; 8-Supersonic Flyer

Forecast: This maiden claiming $50,000 sprint for older state-bred fillies and mares looks treacherous and chaotic, so the best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. Supersonic Flyer and So Very Smart have plenty of zip but not a lot of stick, and both have been vulnerable under pressure in the final stages of their respective races. If one can clear the other in the opening stages we might see a gate-to-wire winner but if they hook up early there’s a reasonable chance that both will fall apart. First-time starter Roses R Blue has trained okay for L. Mendez, and in a soft spot such as this might be reasonably competitive. She lands the capable seven pound bug rider D. Herrera and clearly won’t have to be a world beater to act with this group.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:19 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Bella Vita

Forecast: Bella Vita was scratched out of last week’s Chillingworth S.-G3 but worked the following morning so she’s fine, and against this Cal-bred group of fillies and mares the daughter of Bayern seems properly spotted for another top effort. She earned a career top speed figure when dismantling a first-level allowance field at Del Mar in August and her second flight, stalking style should work quite well in this downhill grass dash. There’s plenty of wagering value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play at or near her morning line of 5/2 if you can get it.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: C
Use: 6-Respect the Ride; 7-Unwritten Code; 10-Spoiled Rotten

Forecast: Maiden claiming $50,000 state-bred juvenile fillies sprint six furlongs in another race that on paper appears borderline inscrutable. Spoiled Rotten has plenty of early speed but has faded readily in her first three starts while facing much tougher straight maiden foes. Against this group she could get loose early and brave late, so at 4-1 on the morning line we’ll put her on top but certainly not with a great degree of confidence. Unwritten Code is another sporting the maiden-to-maiden claiming class drop angle while also removing blinkers, so this second-time starter is another likely to improve a bunch in a weak affair. She trained okay leading up to her debut, so at 15-1 on the morning line the daughter of Desert Code is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Respect the Ride is a debuting daughter of Boat Trip with a work tab that doesn’t look half-bad, so at 8-1 on the morning line the L. Mendez-trained filly can be tossed in as well.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Vivacious Vanessa; 9-Candy On Top

Forecast: Candy On Top just failed at 40 cents on the dollar when missing by a neck (and two lengths clear of the rest) in a similar maiden turf miler for juvenile fillies at Del Mar so she may be a hard one to trust, but the daughter of Twirling Candy doesn’t appear to have much to beat, so she’ll likely to be a short price once again.. Her speed figure did improve eight Beyer points in what was just her second career outing, so and with a similar bit of improvement today she’s very likely to graduate. Long shot players should find a spot on their ticket for the debuting Vivacious Vanessa, a debuting daughter of the hot second-crop stallion Not This Time A $90,000 auction purchase as a yearling, the G. Mandella-trained filly has done some good work in the a.m. and should be capable of at least outrunning her 15-1 morning line odds.

Notable Workouts:
2-Vivacious Vanessa (October 9, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13h). Grade: B
Pretty nice work in company inside Micro Share (same time) for G. Mandella, neither one really being asked much while stride-for-stride throughout, splits of :24 flat, :35.4, 1:00.4 and 1:13.2 on our watches from the five furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole. Daughter of Not This True acts like she’ll enjoy a route of ground and seems fit enough by now. Okay sort, maybe.
View Workout Video

9-Candy On Top (September 22, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h). Grade: B-
Breezing in easy drill for Gaines, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :37.3, a simple maintenance drill for juvenile daughter of Twirling Candy. Looks fine and should be a short price vs. California-bred maiden juvenile fillies again next time out.
View Workout Video

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 07:17 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #3

#3 Whistlewhileyoumow	He won a slow maiden race before being overmatched in a couple of stakes tries, but he'll get blinkers here while getting back into a more reasonable spot, and he should offer a solid price here.
#1 Vitale	He'll have to transfer form to the new footing while stepping up, but he took a nice step forward when adding Lasix last out to land his maiden win against $25,000 company. Capable here.
#5 Magician Stone	He has shown a little bit of quality, but his pedigree is at least a bit iffy on the dirt, so that Churchill dud doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. He might wind up being an okay turf miler.
Race Summary	Whistlewhileyoumow should offer a solid price while adding blinkers for the first time today, and he has turned in a solid spin over the track in advance of this. Interesting enough.

Hawthorne - Race #6

#9 Peyote Peggy	Longshot hasn't shown much in a couple of tries downstate, but she's bred to be better than that and has at least a little bit of upside at a price while trying a new locale today.
#5 Joan's Way	She has had 13 chances, so there are not a bunch of excuses left to make for her, but her baseline form seems good enough to land a piece of this.
#3 Miss High N Mighty	Her form makes her a contender here, but I worry that she's overbet in this spot while moving to the dirt -- a surface she isn't particularly bred to love.
Race Summary	Peyote Peggy probably isn't offering her 30/1 ML price with a pretty decent pedigree for this group, and there just isn't anything to be particularly afraid of in this spot.

Hawthorne - Race #8

#9 Girlolamo'glory	His form on the dirt has been very solid since joining the new barn, and he should be able to land a perfect spying trip from this outside draw in a race without a ton of confirmed speed.
#5 Ride Richie Ride	His form fits here, and he'll now go first off the claim for a dangerous barn with this type, but he'll need something better than he has shown in previous tries at this level. Underlay with a big chance to score.
#1 Z U Soon	He has run pretty well over the local footing in the past, and his recent sprint form from Arlington seems competitive with these. Saves ground and finishes from midpack?
Race Summary	Girlolamo'glory has plenty of upside on the move back to the dirt after a modest try at Arlington, and he has never been much over that surface, so he's attractive at a mid-range price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 07:18 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Pocono Downs - Race #11

#2 ARTISTS RUFFLES	Loomed first-over, couldn't reach the two favorites in 1:50.4.
#8 STELLAR BB	Remains hot at claim box -- and on the track with three wins in a row.
#5 THE CANDYMAN CAN	Carried speed to 11 wins and $89k in earnings this year.
Race Summary	Artists Ruffles made a first-over run at the favorites through a :55.3 middle half but settled for third on the class hike to this level. The 32-race winner is one of many with a chance in here. Bet on him to win and place.

Pocono Downs - Race #12

#6 BENJI'S BEST	Got up for second behind three-peat winner, gets call in talented field.
#8 SOMEBEACH BARON	Has enough zip to get position into first turn and factor throughout.
#5 REGAL SON	Claimed five times since September, doesn't shy from photo-finish camera.
Race Summary	Take a cue from Stellar BB's performance in the 11th race because Benji's Best rallied for minor awards behind him in two October starts. He finished second in the faster division of a split race last week. Play 6-5 and 6-8 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #6

#3 SPEEDY DOMINIC A	Shut off with run nearing lane, blocked until closing yards, take right back.
#1 EAST END	Pile of checks adds up to $600k in earnings, draws rail at proven level.
#2 HIGHLANDBEACHLOVER	Won going away, steps up in class, switches drivers.
Race Summary	Speedy Dominic A chased a blistering pace while gapped in the pocket, inched closer on the final turn but was blocked with run throughout the stretch. He finished third, earning a playback as today's Best Bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 07:19 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #2

#2 Took Charge	Dug in after setting fast fractions and held on in his latest at Del Mar; has the speed to be a factor from the start and will be the one to catch under bug rider Diego Herrera.
#4 The Great One	Was an even fourth in the Shared Belief last out and has been several graded races and is stepping down to a level that should make him competitive. Highlight was a second, a nose behind Spielberg in the G2 Los Al Futurity last year and has been seeking a return to that level since a 14-length maiden win.
#5 Nolo Contesto	Lost photo last out at Los Al and has won over this strip; fits well under these conditions.
Race Summary	Took Charge will probably be freewheeling on the front end, and that will make him tough to catch; was a $50K claim by Baltas three races back and has run well in both starts since. Has his toughest challenge to date but his early speed will make him the target.

Santa Anita - Race #4

#3 Established	Was a winner last out at Del Mar and can be a factor for every moment of this one under Victor Espinoza.
#4 Kneedeepinsnow	Was an even fourth in the Green Flash on turf at Del Mar but no stranger to dirt or Santa Anita, where he won three back.
#6 I Got No Munny	Is in exceptional form with three wins in his last six and has a decent closing move.
Race Summary	Established has the speed to get tot he lead and looks good at the 6.5 furlongs; won two of his last four, and his last three were for Baltas.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#3 Pulpit Rider	Closed with a rush and was up in time in the Solano Beach at Del Mar has been in several good spots and is in top form.
#1 Warren's Showtime	Has a big class advantage and always looks like she has a huge chance, especially against Cal-breds; has won two of her last eight and has closed ground in most races.
#5 Bella Vita	Was an easy optional claiming winner at Del Mar last out and is a state-bred stakes winner; fits here.
Race Summary	Pulpit Rider has a solid closing move and can win if she runs back to her last one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 09:56 AM

Drew Martin

Event: (131) Michigan State at (132) Indiana
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: October 16, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Michigan State -4.5 (-110)
3-0 (100%) football free play record on the line as we look to cash fourth straight to open up the 2021 football season. We are looking to Bloomington, Indiana on Saturday where the Indiana Hoosiers welcome in the Michigan State Spartans for a key Big 10 Conference showdown.

Michigan State is one of the most underrated teams in college football, not necessarily from an AP poll ranking stand point, but from a betting prospective. The Spartans are a very profitable 5-1 against the spread and beating the closing line by a total of 67 points from where the betting market is pricing them at to this point in the season. Yes, Sparty is 6-0 straight up which is impressive, however it is more important to understand how the market is overpricing/ underpricing certain teams and Michigan St is a undervalued commodity at this point. Solid QB play, with likely a NFL running back behind a strong offensive line is a good start for head coach Mel Tucker (A Nick Saban understudy).

Indiana is 0-4 against the spread vs FBS competition and the betting market is overpricing them by a huge margin. Through four games vs FBS foes, the Hoosiers have fallen short of the closing line by over 50 points combined. Tough to find a better example of a team reading the press clippings of last season's success and falling short this year than IU. One of the best fades so far in 2021 from a betting angle. Some might point to Indiana off a bye, as a circle the wagons point in the season, I personally don't like risking my hard earned money on a “Hope for the best situation”. Price point at the forefront of this handicap and that is a huge “Buy Sign” on Michigan St. Bet the Spartans- Lets go Sparty!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 09:56 AM

Teddy Covers

Event: (151) Rutgers at (152) Northwestern
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: October 16, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Northwestern +2.0 (-105)
Take Northwestern (#152)
I could do this write-up in a single sentence: “Rutgers has no business as road favorites in B10 action, especially against a Northwestern team coming off a truly humiliating loss and a bye week to recover from it.” I watched Rutgers win at Syracuse earlier this year and it wasn’t pretty; lucky to escape with the win and cover. Their defense has stopped dominating the line of scrimmage – only one sack created over the last three week. Rutgers bye comes AFTER this game, not before it; a beaten down team off three straight losses, with an injury report that looks pretty ugly to this bettor. QB Noah Verdral isn’t particularly good and he isn’t 100% healthy. Northwestern’s defense is off their worst game of the entire 16 year Pat Fitzgerald tenure. His quote: “We’re playing a lot of guys and I think that’s a positive….I love this group of guys, I think they’re working their tails off….we’ve been too inconsistent and that’s on me.” On a weekend where Gary Barnett’s Big 10 title winning teams from 1995 and 1996 are getting honored in Evanston, look for the Wildcats to come away with the victory against a foe who is, quite simply, overpriced here. Take Northwestern!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 09:56 AM

Dwayne Bryant

Event: (173) Oklahoma State at (174) Texas
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: October 16, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Oklahoma State +3.5 (-115)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 09:57 AM

Marco D'Angelo

Event: (143) Nebraska at (144) Minnesota
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: October 16, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Minnesota +4.5 (-110)
No question on paper Nebraska is the far superior team, but I really have to question how this team gets up for this game after last weeks gut wrenching loss to Michigan. Minnesota takes this right to the wire.

TAKE MINNESOTA +PTS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-16-2021, 09:57 AM

Marco D'Angelo

Event: (173) Oklahoma State at (174) Texas
Sport/League: CFB

Date/Time: October 16, 2021 12PM EDT
Play: Oklahoma State +3.5 (-115)
Here’s another game where we have a team laying points off a gut wrenching loss. Texas blew an 18 point second half lead to their arch rival Oklahoma. That one is going to sting for a while. Texas can move the football but they can’t stop anyone and I can’t lay points with them here. Oklahoma St pulls the mild upset. Oklahoma St 34-31.

TAKE OKLAHOMA ST +pts